The Christchurch East by election
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- Date published:
7:25 am, November 25th, 2013 - 45 comments
Categories: by-election, david cunliffe, greens, john key, labour, national -
Tags: christchurch east, Matthew Doocey, Poto Williams
The Christchurch East by election has entered the final week and this time next Sunday the result should be known.
The campaign has been lower key than some other recent by election Campaigns. The Mount Albert by election in 2009 had intensive media coverage but with four other by elections occurring in the last four years their novelty has diminished.
There has been some attempt to write the election as being in the bag for Labour but nothing can be further from the truth. Bunji is right and the seat is up for grabs.
The result at the last election was less than pleasing. Although Lianne Dalziel won the electorate vote handsomely by 5,334 votes, she was competing against Aaron Gilmore. And the party vote was lost by Labour to National by 4,152 votes. The default position should be that this election is National’s for the winning.
Kiwis can be sophisticated political consumers. The MMP environment has taught them that they can get the MP of their choice and the party of their choice. And they want to guard their rights to preserve these choices. This is why in 2009 David Shearer won so handsomely against Melissa Lee. He ran a competent on the ground get out the vote campaign using some of the best Auckland activists that Labour has while Melissa Lee had a shocker of a campaign. The polling at the time should have seen National cruise home. The fact that Labour won so convincingly showed the strength of the on the ground effort, the quality of the candidate and the fact that Mount Albert residents wanted to exercise their own choice about who should be their MP.
And if you need any further proof of the sophistication of the New Zealand elector bear in mind that last election 30% of voters split their votes between candidates of one party while party voting for a different party.
The second feature that is making this by election so difficult is that Christchurch East has been the electorate hardest hit by the Christchurch earthquakes. This was brought home to me very strongly when I did some door knocking in the area recently. Of the streets that I door knocked about 10% of the sections either had houses that were boarded up or had been demolished. And perhaps a third of the doors that I knocked on had people who had moved since the last election and were not on the roll for that property.
The trip out was very sobering. We drove past the suburb of Bexley where parts were red zoned because of the inability to restore infrastructure and the sight of street after street of boarded up houses which otherwise looked habitable was chilling. The recently released draft electoral boundaries shows the extent of the dislocation that has occurred in Christchurch East. The electorate is now 13,700 under quota which means that a shade under one out of every four electors has left the electorate.
The response that I received while door knocking was pretty good but this was in a Labour part of the electorate. Pretty well everyone had heard of Poto Williams and most thought highly of Lianne Dalziel. There is very obviously a need to convert knowledge into support though and the job of Poto is to persuade locals that she is a competent and able representative.
I was impressed however by the local organisation. I had the sense that the local Labour team were a group of dedicated knowledgable activists and this was a feeling that I last felt during the Mount Albert by election. I am sure they will have a similar get out the vote election day effort but obviously they need as many volunteers as possible.
The Greens appear to be running an energetic campaign although Mojo Mathers was their candidate last time and you wonder why she is not the candidate now. David Moorhouse sounds competent if somewhat negative but I suspect that most electors will see this as being a Poto Williams v Matthew Doocey battle.
Doocey has his problems. He appears to be eyeing up the possibility of standing for the safe Waimakariri seat and does not live in the Christchurch East electorate. There is also an abrasiveness to him which is bound to turn ordinary people off.
The approach of the leaders is interesting. John Key is trying to downplay National’s chances and suggesting that it is in the bag for Labour. David Cunliffe is saying that turnout is critical. David is right, a low turnout could see National squeak through.
There is a sense of change in Christchurch. The recent local government election results saw a progressive mayor and council elected and there seems to be increasing despair at the Government’s handling of issues surrounding the earthquake. There was patience but this seems to be changing to despair as the rebuild takes longer and longer to happen. And I believe that Poto is the ideal candidate for the time, approachable, compassionate and caring as opposed to Doocey’s rather abrupt style.
But time will tell. And turnout will be vital.
Update: Comments will be moderated until 7 pm tomorrow because of election day restrictions.
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- Stand Up for Te Tiriti
Te Tiriti o Waitangi is our country’s founding document. It forms the basis of the relationship between Māori and the Crown – and the Aotearoa New Zealand we live in today. ...1 week ago
- Release: Over 15,000 sign Labour’s open letter to Luxon
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- Greens join King’s Counsel in calling for Treaty Principles Bill to be abandoned
The Prime Minister must answer the call from a group of senior lawyers of the King’s Counsel to abandon the divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...1 week ago
- Chris Hipkins’ apology statement to state and faith-based care survivors
...1 week ago
- Release: Labour formally apologises to state and faith-based care survivors
Labour joins with the Government in unreservedly apologising for the abuse, neglect and trauma including torture in state and faith-based care and for ignoring the voices of survivors for too long. ...1 week ago
- Green Party stands in support of survivors of abuse in care
Today, the Green Party stands alongside the survivors of abuse in state care and faith-based care as the Government issues an historic apology. ...1 week ago
- Green Party calls for conscience vote on Treaty Principles Bill
The Green Party has written to the Speaker of the House requesting he enable a personal vote on the Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt move to exclude journalist risks chilling effect
The Green Party is alarmed by the Government’s move to exclude a journalist from covering this week’s apology for the survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care. ...2 weeks ago
- Without action, an apology will be empty air
For tomorrow’s apology to survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care to hold any water, the Government must not pursue the same policies that drove the abuse in the first place. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Concerns remain over tobacco interference
Concerns about the tobacco industry’s ability to interfere in government policy making remain, despite the inability of the Office of the Auditor-General to investigate the Government’s decision to halve the excise tax on heated tobacco products. ...2 weeks ago
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- Release: Poroporoaki: Ta Robert (Bom) Gillies
Kua hinga te manawa kairākau o Te Rua Tekau Ma Waru Tiwhatiwha te po! Kakarauru i te po! Ka rapuhia kei hea koe kua riro! Haere e te Ika a Whiro ki o tini hoa kua ngaro atu ki te Pō ...2 weeks ago
- Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principles Bill
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principle...
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- NZ must pursue independent foreign policy
The Green Party says the need is greater than ever for Aotearoa New Zealand to pursue an independent foreign policy. ...2 weeks ago
- Record number of submissions received on granny flat proposal
Nearly 2,000 submissions have been received on the Government’s proposals aimed at making it easier to build a granny flat of up to 60 square metres without a resource or building consent, RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk say. “This is the highest number ...1 hour ago - District Court Judge appointed
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Rebecca Guthrie as a District Court Judge. Judge Guthrie was admitted to the bar in 1997 following her graduation from the University of Canterbury in 1996 (LLB, BA). She commenced her legal career in Hastings in 1997 before moving to London in ...2 hours ago
- Appointments strengthen Predator Free 2050
The latest Predator Free 2050 Board appointments will help to strengthen biodiversity efforts across Aotearoa New Zealand, Conservation Minister Tama Potaka says. Mr Potaka today announced two appointments to the Board of Directors of Predator Free 2050 Limited, a key player in the wider Predator Free 2050 Programme. “The Predator ...3 hours ago
- New facility in Christchurch will improve the lives of young New Zealanders
Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey today opened Kahurangi, an innovative and much-needed facility for Canterbury’s Child, Adolescent, and Family Mental Health Services. “The new state of the art outpatient facility opened today will be a gamechanger for the way mental health is delivered for young people in Canterbury,” says Mr ...3 hours ago
- Driver safety screens to be installed on Auckland buses
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed news from the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) that bus driver protection screens will be installed across Auckland’s bus fleet by 2026.“The Government is committed to improving the safety of working environments for bus drivers, and Budget 2024 allocated $15 million of Crown funding over ...4 hours ago
- Government action provides Southland farmers more time to meet plan requirements
The Government is taking action to ensure Southland farmers and growers are not affected by unreasonable regional farm plan deadlines, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard say.“Cabinet has agreed to provide more time for farmers and growers to comply with regional rules ...20 hours ago
- Bill reaffirms Government’s commitment to crack down on serious youth offending
The Oranga Tamariki (Responding to Serious Youth Offending) Bill had its first reading at Parliament today. The Bill reaffirms the Government’s commitment to crack down on serious youth offending, Minister for Children Karen Chhour says. “In recent years we have seen an unacceptable spike in youth offending. “This Bill makes ...21 hours ago
- Critical milestones for earthquake buildings review
Fairer, more sensible rules about managing earthquake risks are a step closer with the passing of legislation and the appointment of an independent chair to provide expert advice, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The Government is committed to reinvigorating our cities and regions to support economic growth, ...21 hours ago
- State of the art radiology machine for Auckland
People in Northland and Auckland will benefit from a new machine for cancer treatment installed at the Regional Cancer and Blood Service at Auckland City Hospital. The MV5 linear accelerator, or LINAC machine, officially opened today targets cancer tumours with pinpoint accuracy. Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says this new, ...21 hours ago
- Foreign Minister to visit Europe
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- First arrests made under gang patch ban
Police have made their first arrests under the new gang patch legislation, with two gang members arrested, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. “Just before 11 this morning, Police in Wairoa apprehended a gang member for wearing a patch to the supermarket. He has been arrested and will now face enforcement ...23 hours ago
- Better support for victims of sexual violence
The Government is proposing two major changes to name suppression laws that will put the views of victims of sexual violence first, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “We are committed to restoring law and order and these two proposed changes will help ensure the victims of crime are put at ...1 day ago
- Government moving forward with Regional Deals
Cabinet has agreed to invite all regions to submit proposals for Regional Deals between central and local government that drive economic growth and deliver the infrastructure our country needs, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop say. Inviting all regions to propose a Regional Deal that boosts ...1 day ago
- MSA pilot participant update
One of the ten young men selected to participate in the Military-Style Academy Pilot has allegedly reoffended. Children’s Minister Karen Chhour is disappointed but says it would be naïve to think that none of these young men would reoffend. “I’m saddened that this young person has not taken this opportunity ...1 day ago
- Fighting for Kiwis in Trade
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Associate Education Minister David Seymour says that school attendance is continuing to rise. In Term 3 of 2024 51.3 per cent of students attended school regularly, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from 46 per cent in Term 3 of 2023. “This Government has prioritised student attendance and it is ...1 day ago
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- Government continues work to reinstate livestock exports by sea
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- Speech to the National Quality Forum 2024
Tēnā koutou katoa – it is a pleasure to be here today. I would like to begin by acknowledging the important leadership role you all play in ensuring a quality health system New Zealanders can trust. There is enormous clinical expertise in this room covering a wide range of disciplines. ...2 days ago
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Tēnā koutou katoa. Mr President, Excellencies, Delegates. New Zealand, and all nations represented here today, are already dealing with the impacts of climate change. Our households, businesses, and economies are bearing the costs of its effects. The choices we make now will shape the severity of these impacts for generations ...2 days ago
- Latest Quarterly Investment Report released
The Government has released its second Quarterly Investment Report (QIR) which shows substantial work still to be done by agencies to improve investment reporting and meet the Government’s expectations, Infrastructure and Acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “New Zealand has significant infrastructure and investment needs. The Government is determined to get ...2 days ago
- New Zealand supporting loss and damage fund
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- Gang crackdown begins at stroke of midnight
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- LGFA increases borrowing capacity to support high growth councils
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- Temporary Traffic Management costs revealed
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- Jurisdiction of Disputes Tribunal to double
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- Protecting New Zealand from foreign interference
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- Final push needed to get to Smokefree 2025
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- Next steps for Regulatory Standards Bill
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- Red Tape Tipline goes live
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- Youth Parliament 2025 announced
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- Police stats show promising change
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- Better coordination of anti-scam efforts
With the launch of Fraud Awareness Week, the Government is committing to new coordination efforts across industry and government to combat online scams, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Online financial scams are a growing problem for New Zealand. New data released today shows that Kiwis lost nearly ...4 days ago
- Minister to consider 7AA select committee report
Minister for Children Karen Chhour will consider the recommendations made by the Social Services and Community Committee in its report back to Parliament on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill. “I want to thank the people who made submissions and those who appeared before the committee in ...4 days ago
- Defence Minister to attend ASEAN meeting
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- Launching the White Ribbon Ride
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- Construction to begin on next stage of Papakura to Drury
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“The Greens appear to be running an energetic campaign although Mojo Mathers was their candidate last time and you wonder why she is not the candidate now…”
The answer is , as usual, when the going gets tough, the Green Mps find any excuse to cop out.
That’s a pretty crappy thing to say gwwnz. Having a well known sitting Green MP (as opposed to a relative nobody) run against Poto Williams would suck an extra 500-1000 votes from Labour.
In other words, the Greens are doing all of us a big favour, so say “thank you.”.
You might be right CV. I have been impressed by Mathers and her presence would have made things more difficult.
So maybe Greens – Labour are starting to work together. Think there’s been any formal overtures or acknowledgement of this strategy, or is it just the left hand doing whatever it wants without talking to the right hand?
There’s the relationship between the MPs, between the leadership and between the staffers to consider.
I’m a bit out of date with how that’s progressed since the Labour Leadership changes. The senatorial games of Rome are a long way away from the outer provinces.
I think a look at who is next on Green List might be more enlightening. Shaw is unlikely to come back from UK for a year which leaves Hay.
SO play safe and leave Mathers on list
Typical tribal Labour arrogance.
The Greens have been busy being leading the parliamentary opposition for the last several years during the time that the Labour party has been busy naval gazing and playing internal party politics and in the next left government hopefully they’ll be the largest party so we can finally have some change from the labour/national paradigm that the country has been trapped in for so long.
Coastal defence and force projection into the Pacific is very important, and Labour realises this.
I wish I knew how to do those smiley faces. Your comment deserves a double dose.
Ah, the opportunities a spelling mistake gives.
Try the FAQ at the top of the page. One of the sub-topics has a set of smileys
OK. Thanks. I’ll have to play with them
eeeeeeee eek !
The reality is that the Greens would be playing the same games. Do you think they are so pure ?
Your niavety is breathtaking, the old adage about power corrupts applies to all who go to Wellington. Ask Sue Bradford about internal Green politics.
As for the Greens being the largest party in the next left government ? Its too silly for words. They cant govern full stop.
You just need to look at the destruction of Australian Labor due to it’s association with the Green Party when in Government. Be careful what you wish for.
Yeah, ’cause the ALP’s problems are because it talks to the Green party over there.
WTF?
Game of Polls
[deleted]
[lprent: Already banned. Another IP for autospam. ]
Sorry, I was making a silly joke about “naval gazing.”
Cut the crap. One negative comment gives 10 votes to National. And John Key just loves the B.S. Not only do Labour/Greens have to win the battle – the East – they have to win the war – next year’s general election. Key, Joyce & co are looking for any sign of divisiveness, leading up to next years election. Screw the bastards.
I certainly did not intend the post to be anti green. There is obviously a certain amount of tension in a by election because the parties are in direct competition for the same votes. But yep there may be subtle signs of some cooperation.
And I agree next year both parties need to maximise support.
How very Stalinist of you W@W. Sending us off for re-education will you ?
If Mojo cant do a by-election , we should know about it. My feeling is that shes ensconced in Wellington -allready
I don’t really care who you vote for – Labour or Green – but publicly slagging off at each other just gives National ammunition. It’s time to corral the wagons, present a united front, and kick Key & co into the boom-docks where they belong. NZ Inc cannot afford another 3 – 6 years of this sort of treatment. I thought Muldoon was a fascist. John Key makes him look like a libertarian.
The Greens may not be the majority party but they could make an invaluable partner to Labour. If only Labour are sophisticated enough to compromise and provide some real, threatening vision. Otherwise we’ll get The Nats or Nat Lite (Labour) and same old again. Cunliffe speaks well but can he handle NZ INC. and the corporate business interests which wish him ill. Yeah right!
Speaking of which, who are leading and involved with Labour’s campaign strategy team for 2014? Any work commenced on that yet, does anyone know?
Let’s hope Cunliffe will not be promoting, or even retaining, the failures of 2008 and 2011.
The 2011 result is weird. Labour’s worst result in a long time, but actually not that far off being able to form a government if NZFirst had helped out.
Anyone seen the Conservative’s candidate’s advertising signs yet?
I can’t remember the exact wording, but it translates roughly to “me builder, me better than others!”.
Poto Williams is a strong Labour candidate and polling suggests she will win the seat easily just as history predicts. No Government party has ever won a seat from an opposition in a by-election.
Set those expectations nice and low mate.
It is possible that flow-on effects of the quakes have drained the East of Left-wing votes disproportionately; uninsured, low-income, transience, school re-locations.
Christchurch earthquake affected electorates were smashed in the 2011 election; they all had massive swings blue way beyond the nationwide avg. 2 Labour incumbents fell. The only comparably poor performing electorate for Labour was Dunedin South and possibly one or two others.
Please Labour will and should win this seat easy.
Any attempt to say, “WOW Labour won what a great victory for the left” puts you on the
same level as Faux News celebrating a GOP victory in texas as a major upset.
I just posted this in reply to something in OM. It’s the numbers for Chch East in 2011. Bad12’s point was that the GP could split the left vote enough to give National the seat. I will be interested to see how smart the GP voters are this time.
BAKER, Leighton CNSP 522
BRITNELL, Michael ALCP 254
DALZIEL, Lianne LAB 15,559
GILMORE, Aaron NAT 10,225
MATHERS, Mojo GP 1,347
MILLER, Johnny UFNZ 108
Labour Party 9,100
National Party 13,252
Green Party 3,359
United Future 160
ACT New Zealand 101
Alliance 28
Democrats for Social Credit 22
Libertarianz 17
Mana 63
Māori Party 84
New Zealand First Party 1,801
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2011/electorate-5.html
weka:
Uhm dumb question, if its by election, there is no party vote?
The labour mp will bolt in.
Keep lowering expectations for National
People are forgetting Williams has been in Christchurch for about 8 months, while David grew up in Christchurch East. If you ask me, he is the one who understands the problems of the region better than anyone else. Yeah, I’m pretty biased, having contributed as much as possible to David’s campaign in the past few weeks, but I can tell you things may not be so predictable as you think on Saturday.
Not sure what you mean when you say David is “somewhat negative”… While Williams is definitely a better candidate than Doocey, I’m pretty sure you don’t know enough about David to argue she is the “ideal” candidate for Christchurch East.
Labour and National have held power in recent years, at a time when many people in Christchurch East did not see very positive results in their lives (as is the case for many others around New Zealand). For far too long, many New Zealanders have seen their democratic input as consisting of a choice between a rock and a hard place, and I think that is where much of what people call “voter apathy” is derived from today. I think a new face would be THE good (not the least worst) outcome for Christchurch East.
Good luck with that Nicolas I hope your hard work meets with success and the resultant improvement in consideration and results for the Easties.
Thanks mate, really hoping for a good result on Saturday!
Again with the lie about Waimak.?
For Christchurch By-election and should have been a General…Good luck to Greens or Mana…hood bye and no thanks Labour / Maori Parties….Too much Te Ao Rawa…Materialist world (paraphrase)
Valedictory speech for Labour Good riddance Quoting “The death of Brittany Abbott – is as a result of Lianne Dalzell in her role as Minister of Immigration during its introduction. “Dalzell should have listened to her arrogance on the ‘Holmes’ on radio NEWSTALK ZB, as she just thought of these kids as akin to HIV germs, and no country should have done to kids like Brittany, what Dalzell introduced.”
NZ Labour’s Ruth Dyson and Lianne Dalzell Responsible for Demise of NZ Disability Strategy 2001 – Aotearoa Media Centre http://archive.indymedia.org.nz/article/76888
Doug Hay
DLANZ
Don’t fret its Potos for the taking. Doocey won’t come close. I sense a noticeable mood change here the last 6 months as the rebuild myth breeds more disillusionment and Brownlies cera circus fails to deliver. Dalziels election is the start, and with key boundary changes like Chch central watch more of Chch return to red( and a bit more green) next election. And yes the left must get smart and start collaborating fast. A Nat-Con alternative makes me want to puke!
Latest on dicey Doocey. There will be a meeting at 7 pm Roy Stokes Hall, New Brighton tonight, Wednesday 27/11. But Mr Doocey won’t be there. He has attended another meeting already and is not prepared to put his candidacy for the job in this vital pre-election period first before optional family matters.
Matthew Doocey said the invitation to speak at tonight’s WeCan earthquake recovery debate came in “at the last minute” and he had already agreed to watch his godchildren’s end of school year production….
WeCan organiser Reverend Mike Coleman, who had planned tonight’s debate, was also angry Doocey would not be there, especially as he left it very late before responding to his invitation.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/the-east/9448712/No-show-from-Matthew-Doocey
godchildren… just dropped that in for those still suckered by the good christian man facade.
He’s already learning from Key. Couldn’t be bothered looking at an invitation or deliberately not looking at it so he can claim he only saw it today…
Apologize to your godchildren.. Tell them you love them. Promise them you give them a nice treat. You take them where ever they want to go – locally. And they will forgive Mr Doocey.
But not fronting up to the people of the East is unforgivable. Obviously your heart is not in it. Stop treating the people of the East with contempt, and playing them for fools – they deserve better than this, after all they’ve been through. Step down now, and at least people won’t waste their votes on a loser.
national sides with the insurance companys against the people and the people vote national in return i dont think so . the feeling of anger at the govt over the quakes and theyir bully boy mr brownlee is way under estimated and labour will hold this seat easily on saturday night .thats a real feeling out their now national always sides with the corporations against the people like the big insurance companys . had enough yet christchurch east i know i have im voting labour .
Gilmore got thrashed by 50% points he is not wanted go away goomer as if you would ever have anything good to say about labor . do you think i am stupid gilmore . even your own party cant stand the site of you .lab against national mp vote Gilmore lost by over 50% points they hate him .so dumb he cant take a hint .no not national its labour national have sided with the big insurance company’s against the poor people of Christchurch like haven’t they been through enough .