- Date published:
11:58 am, October 1st, 2017 - 132 comments
Categories: democracy under attack, election 2017, labour, Media, national, nz first, paula bennett, Politics, spin, Steven Joyce, the praiseworthy and the pitiful, winston peters, you couldn't make this shit up - Tags:
This weekend we have had the full court press as the Herald threw article after article at the preposterous notion that Winston may go into coalition with Labour.
First to address what is their primary claim, that the largest party has first claim to forming a Government. The largest party has no expectation of anything, all it has is a starting point where it is closer to 61 votes in Parliament than anyone else, no more, no less. After that the rules of arithmetic kick in although you can bet that if National do not form the next Government then its sense of self entitlement and its indignation at having power taken away from it will be on display big time.
This election is especially difficult for National because apart from puppet party ACT it has no mates. None. Clearly the strategy was to burn everyone off, get New Zealand First under 5% and then have a majority. It nearly worked. But the people have spoken and National needs to make deals and compromise, something it has been very bad at doing previously unless the compromise was opinion poll and focus group mandated.
But this did not stop the Herald collectively claiming before the negotiations had started that they should be finished and the reigns of power handed back to National.
First up was John Armstrong. He said this:
The feeling that the monarch-maker is the one who will end up being the monarch is accentuated by the sudden deference displayed by the two major parties towards Peters.
After months of intimating that accommodating the veteran politician was about as inviting as cohabiting with Attila the Hun, Labour and National have been auditioning as doormats who could not welcome Peters across their respective thresholds fast enough.
The level of obsequiousness to which those two parties are capable of sinking was amply demonstrated by English’s labelling Peters a “maverick”.
This is a complete rewrite of history. Labour relationships with New Zealand First have been constructive for a long time. Both parties realise that there is considerable agreement about a number of policy areas.
But this claim about the parties being doormats? Well it is true at least as far as National is concerned. Since the election:
And how has Labour resembled a doormat? Umm? Apart from treating New Zealand First with respect for the past decade nothing. Before a negotiating position is advanced Labour is accused of being a doormat. I mean WTF?
National’s dramatic action is required because it has to repair relationships with New Zealand First fast if it wants to remain in power. The dirty politics it has been engaged in this year which include the attempted hit on Peters over his Superannuation overpayment is but the latest of nine years worth of attacks it has put Peters through.
Armstrong thinks that Peters’ main goal will be to ensure that New Zealand First survives Government and claims that going with National will achieve this. He forgets that Peters spent the campaign advocating for change. Backing National will betray most of his supporters as the polls show. And it did not work out well in 1996 when in very similar circumstances New Zealand First did exactly that.
John Roughan wrote an article with a similar view. It contained this rather unusual passage about the prospect of a Labour-Green-New Zealand First government:
A coalition of losers is a definite possibility, especially if special votes reduce National to a two point margin over the combined tally of Labour and the Greens. Mr 7 per cent (probably, after the specials) is planning to sit like King Solomon and invite bribes from both sides.
He and leaders of other losing parties are trying to convince us this is perfectly legitimate under MMP. Professors of politics explain that under proportional representation we get to elect a parliament not a government. Professors of politics need to think more carefully.
Elections for most people are not just a debate, they don’t vote for academic interest, a parliament of neatly proportionate views is not the point of the exercise for them. They think they are electing a government and that matters to them very much.
But again this ignores the nature of MMP. If this formula was to be applied then the grouping (left or right) with the weakest support parties would always win. Having diverse parties is somehow a weakness with this sort of logic.
And this morning there was this tragic attempt by Heather du Plessis-Allan. Right from the start she gets things wrong.
There’s something unseemly about the current coalition flirting. The way the two major parties fawn over Winston Peters. The way the two deputies act like martyrs by giving up jobs that would be taken off them anyway. The way the leaders almost salivate at the thought of power.
Note to Heather the only person who will be giving up their job is Paula Bennett who last time I checked is the current Deputy Prime Minister. And can she point out where Labour is fawning over Peters? As I noted before National is the only party knifing its own members to clear out those most upsetting to Peters.
She then offers this really passive aggressive “advice” to Jacinda. According to her Peters will dominate the media and the Greens are a shambles and at the same time will force Labour to tack left. Of course National faces the same problem about Peters dominating the media and its one remaining support party ACT is a complete and utter shambles so her concern rings a little hollow.
She then talks about how previous Labour Governments only survived for one term, neatly ignoring that the more recent Clark Government lasted three terms and the Lange Government lasted two.
And she notes that we have never had a MMP Government run by a party that gained the most votes and “who knows what happens next”. Maybe they have a vote or something and see who gets the most votes in Parliament.
Her advice have some merit in a political game playing sense. But there are hundreds of thousands of kids living in poverty and our environment is being wrecked. Waiting for our turn means that nothing apart from PR will be done about these problems.
To be fair to the Herald there is this much more nuanced effort by Audrey Young. She describes in some detail what happened in 1996 and leaves open the possibilities of what may happen in the near future.
But the tone of the other articles, that it is all over and we should just hand power back to National, is concerning in the extreme.
Jim Bolger raving on about the Greens needing to be inside the tent on Q+A made me laugh. That would produce the same result as the Maori Party got for being inside National’s putrid tent. The arrogance of National defies belief. Bastards.
They are worried.
The ” stable” National party were supposed to be “stable” are truly freaking out now with Bolger making wild aqusations that Winston is planning to go “cross bench” now!!!!!
This same idiot Bolger last week said the media that they all need to relax and give the two weeks grace to get the ‘negociations completed?????
What a bloody flop-flog this idiot Bloger really is now, bloody clown!!!!
How supid they look now.
Well heres some of what the Maori Party achieved:
Pita Sharples made Minister of Maori Affairs and Associate Minister of Corrections and Associate Minister of Education.
Tariana Turia became Minister for the Community and Voluntary Sector, Associate Minister of Health and Associate Minister for Social Development and Employment.
Whanau Ora: Around $400 million of extra spending on Maori initiatives since 2008.
Many more policy wins and influence over government policy. They influenced more than $3 billion for kaupapa Māori initiatives and almost $3 billion for all New Zealanders.
The Māori Party influenced the Government to invest more than $300 million in emergency housing for homeless families
The Maori party was a key driver in anti-smoking policy including plain packaging
Secured funding to support kaupapa Māori programmes run by Māori to tackle high suicide rates among Māori youth.
Initiated the largest trades training programme in more than two generations for Māori and Pasifika youth, which so far has created more than 8000 trade training places for them
Secured $60 million for building three new kura kaupapa Māori, Māori language medium schools.
Strange that Nats didnt champion those successes during the campaign nor the media who preferred to give disproportionate coverage to Act?
Can you be more specific about.
“They influenced more than $3 billion for kaupapa Māori initiatives and almost $3 billion for all New Zealanders.”
Or give us the link to your source?
If they achieved so much then why are Māori worse off?
yet what happened to quit line and to tax on cigarettes?
Imagine what they would have got if the National Party weren’t comprised primarily of not wilful but certainly subliminal racists. Maori Party deserves what it got. Imagine……fucking off with a sugar daddy the kids hated.
They keep viewing this through a single paradigm. How politics has always been so it must be. Actually, no. And some heads are exploding cos of it…
If the Herald doesn’t want Winston to go with Labour, then Winston going with Labour
is probably the best option.
Also this notion that Winston has all the power is nonsense. National can say no to anything he suggests. So can Labour. He only has “all” the power if Nats and Labour let him by doing anything for power.
As for “losers” tag. That is an emotive outpouring by someone who might otherwise be stamping their foot and saying “if I cant win I am taking my ball and going home”.
We need research and analysis from all views to challenge our own and make shifting perspectives possible. The one way traffic right now is continuing the pre election polarisation.
Yep. I wonder if he’d have called UF (before they entered oblivion) and Act ‘losers’ without prompting.
The creation of a climate of “We have been cheated of our rightful win” is deliberate.
If and when the coalition L NZF G forms, National want it seen as a usurper.
All the naysayers will line up to pick holes in all aspects of the coalition L NZF G, with a view to going back to first past the post, as a supposed clearer view of voter intentions. (Ignoring that MMP was to avoid distortions caused by FPP.)
Further, the effort to try to get the Green Party to form a coalition with National would spike NZ First guns and deprive Labour of viable coalition partners.
All of this smacks of Joyce conducting and using attack lines saying National really won, and anything else is unacceptable.
Hopefully, NZers are aware now of this type of behaviour, and NZ First Greens and Labour staying clear of it speaks volumes as they await the final count on the 7th.
National and their virulent mouthpieces are looking more desperate and ridiculous by the day. Sometimes repeating a meme raises more questions than answers.
Like, what is at stake for the journalists? National Party members and the Blue Dragons??
there desperate all right dont they understand we hate everything the tory scum stands after 9 years of this scum bag government we want revenge on these bastards
To be fair, New Zealand First has power over any position that Labour and National disagree on, and anything they’re willing to give him in order to secure policy that one of the three disagrees with the other two on.
That’s not insignificant.
That said, if you look at what Winston’s gotten in the past, even when he arguably got “too much,” the spending for coalition commitments as a percentage of the budget was never higher than his vote as his proportion of the party vote, so arguably the major parties, at least in terms of budget discipline, are ensuring that the dog in fact wags the tail.
You’re right tracey about the major parties having ceded power to NZ First.
But currently so have the Greens. At the minute they appear to have decided not to identify what power is available to them and, so, what to do with it. They can exercise some power now if they decided to. Their official stance is not to do this and this reinforces your point.
If they chose to they could sit down and discuss coalition/sitting on the cross bench scenarios with NZ First and/or with National. Or even Labour. They should do this.
This would reduce NZ First’s power and could throw up new and interesting possibilities.
This is the problem with conservatives and conservatism: there is no tolerance for diversity on any level.
It shows through in National’s FPP campaign and it shows in the Herald contributors’ lack of understanding of the purpose of MMP; which is to provide diversity and true ‘representation’.
The other explanation for this is political bias on the part of the Herald. In that case, they should just come out and say it.
It’s not bias, it’s ignorance. MMP doesn’t work the way the Herald writers are making out, and Roughan’s ‘coalition of the losers’ comment, while pithy, shows his ignorance.
Why can’t it be both bias and ignorance?
*cue Old El Paso ad music*
Because any media bias that does exist is divided across the political spectrum. The idea that the media is all pro-right is an excuse for poor results, just as National supporters used to claim media bias for Helen Clark.
Also shows that John Key’s hagiographer is shitting his pantaloons. Punk Hosking’s the same. ‘Cept it’s skinny jeans.
Did you read the book? It was a darn good read.
It appears that the NZH is suggesting that the electorate does not understand MMP and elections but rather than countering this ‘misunderstanding’ it feeds and propagates it!?
The Herald is a tool of corporate interests.
What would you expect it to want?
The Harold is best understood as the Auckland newsletter of the National party.
Come on Mickeysavage it’s the granny, it’s for the Tory manifesto, a 100 times out of a 100.
Any trick and spin it can fire off, it will.
Any lies, bs, and indeed dirty politics it can get away with, it will.
This paper (the granny) is why the Maoriland Worker Started in the first place.
Rather than counter it’s lies, spin, dirty politics. Lets do somthing better, lets put forward our news and view points – so people can be informed.
During this period of waiting for the final votes come in surely to God there should be a limbo period where the media and other so called pundits should be banned from trying to persuade or try to determine the final outcome of this pending new coalition Government.
Its an insult for the voters from overseas – doesn’t their vote count for God’s sake, why are we also forgetting this is an MMP system of voting now and all this rubbish of a FFP system still being in contention is deliberately misleading. The MSM have lost all their sense of what is correct and decent. Local TV is never watched and Aljazeera is now our source for news these days. Seriously this country is going to the dogs and that’s an insult to man’s best friend.
By the way a loved one who lives in Central Auckland says a lot of the dairies now no longer have the Herald in stock as nobody is buying it and its a waste of money having it clutter up their shelves. I am now having a second attempt at the Herald, gave it up years ago, but they never give up do they and I am on a 5 week freebie delivery. What a god damn waste of time that was, never have I read so much tripe, I don’t even read it now and it goes straight from the letterbox to the recycle bin. I am writing to the Editor of the paper and once again they will get exactly what my opinion is of their shit rag.
It pisses me off that there is absolutely nothing worth while viewing or reading these days and we have to search for online current affairs/entertainment to keep the brain engaged.
I took up their last freebie so when theg rang to see how it went I told them It was great for wrapping stuff for my house move and that as long as it was full of opinion pieces and little analysis I would never pay a cent for it.
Same with the Press in Christchurch. As they say “…the Press is toilet paper you can buy with the shit already on it”.
Lol +100 Southern Man
To be fair to National, New Zealand has obviously not done too badly over the past 9 years since the GFC. A lot of OECD countries have suffered far worse than we have. That’s a simple fact. Maybe it is the China FTA signed under Labour, and simply being fortunate enough to be in the most rapidly developing part of the world, but Bill English’s stewardship has also played a big part.
And a lot of our current unemployed could simply be of the utterly unemployable type.
I work at a large tertiary institute and have never come across a time such as now in which graduates have found it so easy to find work. Employers are coming to us begging for graduates rather than the other way round
Yes, National have dropped the ball in some areas —but a strong economy is a prerequisite to fixing homelessness and poverty. Let’s face it, if trade is stuffed up, then jobs are stuffed – any housing no matter how cheap is unaffordable if you don’t have a steady job..
This is very interesting:
“The 20-year trend of more New Zealanders moving to Australia than vice versa was broken in February 2016 when New Zealand had a net gain of 800 migrants from the Lucky Country.”
Now if NZ was such a basket case that some here make it out to be, then surely we would not be gaining migrants from Australia?
And yet, after 9 years of National touting their great economic management and rock star economy, homelessness, diseases of poverty, and low wages get worse and we have a health system crumbling and failing Kiwis.
Quite simply because NZ is not a basket case. But, and it is a big ‘but’, the people you describe as potentially unemployable (and you may be right), the people who are homeless, the people who are genuinely struggling financially, need the economy to deliver for them as well. If we don’t address these issues, ultimately we will reap the results in social dislocation, and in a poorer society as a result.
So 10% more people became unemployable after the 90’s all of a sudden.
I wonder why?
Did you mean to address that question to Wayne?
a lot of our current unemployed could simply be of the utterly unemployable type.
The unemployment rate in 2007 was ~3%: you’re going to have to find some other lie with which to smear your betters.
And if there are so many “unemployable” people, what does Wayne and his Nats plan to do about it? Hound them off benefits so they all lie slowly dying in the streets?
OAB – surely you know that whenever the Nats are elected around about 2-3% of the population wake up the next day and say:
“Oh goody. The Nats are in. I’m going to be lazy and unemployable for 9 years coz I just feel like surrendering myself to the sadistic micro-management of WINZ”
Reasonably large numbers of NZers returned from Australia as the job market there flattened because there is no social security net for us there now.
To pretend that this is in any way an endorsement of the atrocious government that has been plundering NZ for most of a decade is beyond fatuous, it is dishonest.
Wayne, are you the former Nat minister that regularly comments here with the handle “Wayne”? If you’re not, it might be a good idea to change your handle to something else, like maybe “Wayne (not the Nat)”.
Was just thinking that although this Wayne if he is different to ex Nat MP Wayne is still very Natty so perhaps he could call himself “Wayne(not the ex MP Nat but still a Nat, Nat)
A day or few ago pink gravatar Wayne commented that he voted Green…
Really, thanks for that update, he comes across as very Natty and not at all green with his “utterly unemployable” line. That comment alone sounds like there might be a lot of blue mixed in with the Green.
If you’re interested there was a bit of discussion about various Waynes starting here
Wait. Which “Wayne” are you?
Have politely asked him if he would consider adding a g to the dnd of his name cos I doubt Mapps ego will let him change his
Now if NZ was such a basket case that some here make it out to be, then surely we would not be gaining migrants from Australia?
A lot of kiwis were employed in the Australian mining construction sector which really has taken a big downturn and I’m not surprised many of them returned back home. In many cases they were there for the big money as long as it lasted, and never intended to live in Aus long term.
And because kiwis using the SCV 444 visa are not eligible for Centrelink support, if they don’t have a job then they pretty much do have to return home.
It will be interesting to see how this trend plays out longer term; because while Australian wages are going through a prolonged flat-patch due to the Lib/Nat govt anti-union policies … incomes are still higher and outside the Sydney and Melbourne the cost of living is lower than NZ. If you still have a good job in Aus I really can’t see most people moving back over the Tasman.
I think the article referred not to returning kiwis, but actual Australian citizens who came to live in NZ.
Over the past two years, there have been more Australian citizens coming to live in NZ than NZ citizens going to live in Australia. This bucks a two decade trend.
But are they really Aussies?? Kiwis???
Seem to remember a report with Immgration NZ basically saying arrivals only advised their point of embarkation on entry papers and this was the information used to compile immigration figures.
So a Liverpudlian** flies round the globe with last stopover in Sydney. On arrival Auckland entry documents state boarded flight Sydney. Immigration record as Australian arrival??
** Insert any country that tickles your fancy.
There are at least two possible responses to this statement:
1) This ‘strong economy’ has not delivered to all and the homeless & poor are evidential proof of this. It is also obvious by now that those at the bottom and margins of society – a growing segment of the population – are never going to truly benefit from a ‘strong economy’ as it is currently defined & achieved. This brings me to the second response;
2) Homelessness & poverty are caused by the so-called ‘strong economy’. They are the necessary & inevitable by-product of our crazy consumption-driven growth-obsessed capitalism-based economy. Low pay & wages is an obvious necessity for profit-growth, for example.
It’s economy, Jim, but not as we know it …
“but a strong economy is a prerequisite to fixing homelessness and poverty. ”
Actually that is an insidious neoliberal lie (I’ve mentioned this a few times here!)
NZ is very wealthy but wealth is very poorly distributed. You can deliver far more to poorer people by redistributing a small amount of the wealth, than you can ever achieve by growing the economy.
e.g. if top 10% have 10% less (e.g. $90m instead of $100m), the poorest half can have double what they currently have. You would need to grow economy by far more than 100% to deliver the same benefit (because most growth accrues to the already wealthy).
Take away immigration and the ChCh rebuild( done on insurance money)and a housing bubble and then the economy doesn’t look so flash, in fact productivity is falling. Bill English ….huh.
Take those things away and we’d be in a depression. Hell, just take away the housing bubble and the chances are that we’d be in a depression.
Although not about winston …. this post is about the Heralds dishonest reporting …. their fear mongering in favor of bad legislation ………all based on Nationals pack of lies ….
It provides a pretty good example of modern NZ Print Propaganda ….
The Nacts may be a pack of dirty hearted con artists ….. but our dirty media joining in and spreading their Lynch mob Lies ….. is how they keep getting away with it …. .
Instead of exposing the lies and revealing the facts …. Our News misinforms and fear mongers…. on their behalf
Modern day witch trials ….. Lord of the flies as practiced by low down grown ups …… Herald styles
“The great meth testing scam” …. The headline is factual … and initial reporting seems ok ….
Apart from failing to mention once in the 10 or more times they used his name, while quoting him,…… that Dr Nick Kim, a senior lecturer in environmental chemistry at Massey University,….. is actually a Dr and one of New Zealands top expert toxicologist …
“Sugar soap and elbow grease
“Any standard detergent will do. I’ve suggested they should use two different ones if they want to be sure, and then get it retested,” he says. That’s Massey University environmental chemistry expert Nick Kim’s antidote to a bit of methamphetamine on your walls. It’s the advice he gives frantic homeowners who ring him after their properties have tested positive for P.”…..“Those that have got back to me have said, ‘yeah, the second test came back fine’.”
“Landlords are evicting tenants, insurance premiums are rising, and property owners are spending tens of thousands of dollars on decontaminating houses at levels so low the risk to human health is neither appreciable nor quantifiable”….
“At 1.5 residue levels are so negligible that to call it ‘contamination’ is an abuse of language, Kim argues” …
The Herald tells us to be shocked by the rational Ross Bell… because, “ the New Zealand Drug Foundation, an organisation whose reason for being is to reduce the harm caused by substance abuse, backs Kim “ ….
And then the Herald serves up ignorant … or dishonest bullshit….. As their story attacks their own Headline…
First up, a real arsehole landlord ….. “He gets each of his 30 properties around greater Auckland and the Waikato meth tested before a new tenant moves in” .
“The result is I’m having long vacancies because it’s only about one prospective tenant in 20 goes into my houses now.” ….. Greedy …. and nasty …. and paranoid.
Then we get quotes from a robber ‘meth decontaminater’ ….. whose dishonesty fuels his bussiness …..
Yet Miles Stratford, a con man getting rich from his hoax business is not asked how much money he’s fleeced ..and his modern day snake oil sales pitch is printed as facts …
…..“MethSolutions chief executive Miles Stratford says around a third of long term meth users try their hand at cooking the drug,” …… ““When drug user X runs out of money, let’s have the mobile lab rock up, shall we?” …….
But it gets worse than Miles Stratford acting like a Nigerian scammer trying to take our money … …. Like a banana republic we are adopting Nact Voodoo standards ……
“NZQA is also going to give the decontamination fraud industry a emperors clothes type legitimacy …. “Stratford says. Under the new rules participants must achieve an accreditation standard to continue operating. This will mean staff gaining an NZQA unit standard which is in the process of being set up.” …..
If the Herald was an e-mail …. We’d recognize it as National spam……
Their story and reporting is certainly Trash ……. which brings us to a Aussie with the wrong name ….
A Aussie academic, Police contractor …and ( paid?) speaker at meth ‘decontamination’ industry events ‘ by the name of ‘Dr Wright is quoted by the Herald..
.. and unlike their references to DR Kim, where they never referred to him as a doctor …….the Herald makes sure we know shes’s a Dr straight off the bat …. giving credence to her remarkable evidence lacking opinions …. her outright lies … and her dishonest projection ….. “It’s not appropriate to take that out because it suits your agenda.” …..
From her research and ‘studies’, she claims …. “We are seeing quite consistent health effects in people. Respiratory problems, eye irritations, skin irritations, behavioral changes particularly in children.” ..
.” At least two of her case studies were houses where the drug had been used as opposed to manufactured, she says.”
At least two houses she has studied were smoking only ?????? …….““We are seeing quite consistent health effects in people.” … from the two house she has studied, with just smoking, no labs. ….
From her ‘research’ of two houses s ….” she is adamant that Kim and the New Zealand Drug Foundation are “very wrong” in their assertion that low levels of P residue cause no harm.”
She then tells another lie … “much more research is needed” …Does she not know of the over 80 years of Amphetamine use ….. and abuse
“America’s First Amphetamine Epidemic 1929–1971
A Quantitative and Qualitative Retrospective With Implications for the Present https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2377281/
The math behind the bullshit is quite revealing and informative ….
…. A childs prescription ADHD medicine ,…… Desoxyn , ……which in its 5 mg pill form ….. contains enough methamphetamine to fail 3333 meth test at the new higher level of ‘contamination’ http://www.iodine.com/drug/desoxyn ………….
The only good thing to say about the Three-thousand three-hundred and thirty three failed tests that a 5 mg prescribed pill could produce …. is that its better than the 10,000 fails the old level was set at .
“At 1.5mcg residue levels are so negligible that to call it ‘contamination’ is an abuse of language”
Drug policy abuse ….. from charmers like this Aussie tolley clone https://twitter.com/MikeCarlton01/status/898332899417538560/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.michaelwest.com.au%2Fshambles-of-a-government-shambling-through-shambolic-shambleathon%2F
We had Mike Sabin … and his expertise …..
$78 Million of Government money has been wasted on this scam ………….
Talk to any cop up here in the North and they’re very dirty on Sabin. Police invested big money in his meth’ menace education and what does he do ? Fucks off into private ‘consultancy’ thereby appropriating to his own advantage the very expensive training he got and the Police paid for.
come on Wayne any monkey can show growth if you ramp up immigration and pump up a debt fueled housing bubble to drive consumption all those middle class debtors running an ATM on the mortgage who will the nats blame when the piper wants paid back?????????and it isnt that far off.
australia is popping already
Wayne. 1.2 billion trade deficit.
All you can claim is that National ‘did not stuff up too badly’.
If you look at the numbers, it is only ‘Communist China’, insurance money from natural disasters and an entirely fortuitous demand for milk powder, combined with Cullens refusal to get into debt for tax cuts for the wealthy, and a short lived stimulus from excessive immigration before we have to pay the infrastructure bill, which has saved National from disaster.
Then they get a majority of votes with an entirely cynical and dishonest pretence to be more socialist than they are, combined with outright lying about other parties policies.
If i was a National MP, I would be ashamed to show my face on public.
You get the impression Heather du Plessis-Allan’s articles are written for her.
First time Wayne has ever conceded National has “dropped the ball in some areas”! Perhaps he is wanting to present a less flinty face for Green voters.
Re employment – I know of a young person who had to work 6 hours straight and was not allowed to go to the toilet. That is the sort of working conditions ushered in by National.
National’s playmates (Act, UF, Maori) have petered out so now they want Greens to look kindly on them. Suddenly National really does care about the environment! It seems Nick Smith has been locked up somewhere in case he makes one of his stupid comments.
“And if there are so many “unemployable” people, what does Wayne and his Nats plan to do about it? Hound them off benefits so they all lie slowly dying in the streets?”
Firstly I am not a National supporter. I voted two ticks Green.
In answer to your question, of course not. We have to support these people and support them comfortably, as an absolute moral imperative, regardless of whether or not they are unemployable or otherwise.
But the lowest 5 % (or even 10%) of any population will always require governmental support, and this is going to be increasingly the case as the world becomes more technologically advanced and itegrated. The jobs out there are simply becoming more and more cognitively challenging.
Consider this, the 5th percentile corresponds to an IQ of around 75, which is ‘borderline retarded’ (not saying that the unemployed profile aligns neatly with the distribution of intelligence – for example there are a lot of unemployed law graduates – but I don’t think these exceptions will detract from the general point I am trying to make)
In an increasingly technologically sophisticated civilization the jobs available to people in say the lowest 10% to 20% of intelligence will be few and far between. And it is only going to get worse.
In fact a lot of jobs in the developed world are now being lost, not so much because of competition from low wage developing countries but from automation.
Wayne, I really recommend you clarify you’re not the former Nat minister that regularly comments here. That confusion is why you’re getting a lot of hostile responses out of line with your comments. Kind of like our commenter Tony Veitch that needed to change his handle to “Tony Veitch (not the partner-bashing 3rd rate broadcaster)”
I am sure you have been asked before but there are 2 Waynes. 1 is Wayne Mapp who will never change his name on here because his ego wont allow it and the other is you. It causes confusion.
As a fellow Green voter and supporter would you change to WayneG or something so we do not mix you up.
To be fair, Mapp was here first.
Check back over your previous comments, Wayne. You’ll find some moderator notes waiting for you.
You’d be the first Green voter I’ve heard who would say “New Zealand has obviously not done too badly over the past 9 years” – so I’m guessing you’re a fugazi.
Even if Wayne is not a fan of social justice greens but environmental greens, Nats 9 years must still be considered a fail?
The fake carbon credits scam has not exactly earned Green trust. Nor has the relentless inhouse and media sledging. Bennett may think Paris was a triumph but Greens are in general educated and thus more critical.
Yes, you are right. On certain trade and employment and other economic indicators the Nats have been successful, perhaps one could say quite successful (B+)
But they have rocketing house prices, increasing levels of poverty and homelessess, and the environment. Indeed these problems had to be repeatedly pointed out to them, but they only started to admit the issues during the election campaign. (D – i.e. a fail)
Overall I would say the Nats would get a C+
Hopefully a Labour/Greens/NZ First coalition government can keep trade and the economy ticking along, while at the same time implementing policies that will alleviate the suffeering of our most vulnerable by using that wealth created by a strong economy. That of course requires Ardern to take a pragmatic approach when it comes to our trading relationships and housing. Perhaps pissing off the South Koreans over what is probably a miniscule impact on the housing market by their nationals, is not worth putting $4 billion in trade and thousands of jobs at risk.
You are dreaming.
Real unemployment is in excess of 11%.
Real GDP growth ex migration & Christchurch is 0.9%
The only thing the Gnats are good at is faking the stats. A growth rate of 0.9% puts us among the very bottom performing OECD countries, and goes a long way to explain the many negative social indicators that would otherwise be anomalous. We don’t have record suicide and homelessness and flatlining wage growth because Bill is a rockstar, but because he is not.
C+? Not in any course I teach.
Nor me. And abject fail on social justice and environment
“On certain trade and employment and other economic indicators the Nats have been successful, perhaps one could say quite successful (B+)
Will the real Wayne stand up please….
“Consider this, the 5th percentile corresponds to an IQ of around 75, ”
How did you get that figure? I’d be dubious of that one, might be true in some countries but can’t see it for NZ.
You might want to think about that one. This bit from that link is probably where people get the notion from….
“About 5 percent of the population scores above 125, and 5 percent below 75”
Hint… what ‘population’ are they referring to?
The population is the general population of most ‘white’ developed countries, with 100 being the median which for any measure that is normally distributed also corresponds to the mean. For mental retardation the cut-off point (using the ‘white’ distribution as an arbirtrarily selected benchmark,
If we are talking of US blacks, their mean IQ is around 85, while for East Asians (Japanese, Chinese, Koreans) their mean IQ is around 105/106. This has implications beyond simply the difference in mean/median scores. For example, approximately only 16% of blacks have an IQ above the white median of 100, whereas around 65% of East Asians exceed 100. These facts are well known and accepted throughout the mainstream academic community —what is debated is the cause of these differences, i.e. genetic or environmental or both in various proportions.
In any case for NZ, the lowest 5 percentile in cognitive ability, regardless how it is measured or the validity of the various tools employed to measure it, will struggle in a world that is becoming more and more technologically sophisticated. Jobs are becoming on average more and more cognitively demanding, and with automation, low skilled factory and assembly line jobs will likely disappear over the next one or two decades.
I think the unavoidable conclusion is a certain percentage of the population will become simply be untrainable and thus unemployable for the type of jobs on offer in a modern developed economy. When you have only 5% unemployment it is quite likely that a significant proportion of this population simply does not have the mental capacity for work beyond that of fruit picking or ditch digging.
Wealthy countries will thus have to rely more and more on skilled immigration from the developing world to plug the gaps in the trades and professions.
I don’t think you have a good grasp of it there Wayne_2. Even if your numbers on race were correct NZ is a very racially diverse population so there wouldn’t be a ‘white average’ IQ here would there.
And IMO you’re way overstating modern cognitive requirements. There’s a difference between being intelligent and being educated. For the most part a lower IQ person is no less capable, they just tend to take longer to learn.
Your 1st Q was about the “figure” to which I tried to give a handy link for an A.
I cannot answer your 2nd Q.
A moderator asked you to change your handle – she corrected yours to Wayne_2.
You are causing a lot of confusion because Wayne Mapp has identified himself as the Wayne who has been commenting here for a few years. Surely you must realise this is creating a problem?
See here where a moderator asked you to change your name.
Just heard on the 3pm news that Christine Rankin said the Greens should go with the Natz!!
Crikey, has Christine Rankin any credibility?
Neither a Green nor Nat member. Who cares what she thinks?
This is just saturation bullying from the Nats and their shills!
The National Party spin machine is showing its true authoritarian underbelly.
And according to Stacey Kirk: everybody knows the Greens ought to go with National but they won’t. Jesus Christ in the name of…
What the hell is the crappy MSM doing asking that nutcase Rankin for her views anyway?
It could be the old dead cat on the table ploy. What are the Nats trying to divert from?
They seem to have a ready supply of deceased felines, there’s getting to be quite a pile on the table. Have there been some casualties in the National caucus room in the past few days?
Or getting opinions from anyone except Green members or voters?
Interestingly, over on Fairfax they’re pushing strongly for a National-Green deal.
Whom are they trying to manipulate & pressure: the voters who have done their job and can now sit back & relax and wait & watch or the four remaining parties and their negotiating teams?
There are relatively (??) few in MSM who’re pushing for a Labour-NZF-Greens deal; plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose …
Yes isn’t it interesting. I was at a function where a group of us were discussing the possible/probable links between some of our politicians/media types and the CIA. We went back over the decades and listed the number of politicians formerly in Labour who went to America on some kind of political study arrangement and ended up going hard Right some time after their return. It is also well known that a number of our journalists and reporters have also spent time “studying” in America.
You really have to wonder what kind of brain-washing techniques might be being used on them because it is in America’s interest to have the politicians and media hyenas of their ‘allies’ dancing to the beat of the Yankee drums.
The hatred of Peters in MSM must run very deep
Whilst it shouldn’t be relevant, I wonder if in the interests of balance and fairness, those being rather shrill in their comments re Winston and re Nats going with the Greens (including Heather, Duncan Garner and Rachel Smalley) shouldn’t declare their vested interest by declaring who they voted for?
OK, apologies for that:
” “Consider this, the 5th percentile corresponds to an IQ of around 75, ”
How did you get that figure? I’d be dubious of that one, might be true in some countries but can’t see it for NZ.”
[lprent: I have gone back through your comments and changed them all to Wayne_2. You can keep it or change it. ]
[I also did that the other day (Wayne 2). He obviously did’t read the moderation notes – weka]
In NZ all the women are strong, all the men good-looking, and all the children above average.
But if you’re familiar with the Flynn Effect, the number who would now rate 75 is probably significantly lower. IQ is not without its critics though, Flynn’s studies of Asian IQ suggested it measured something other than intelligence.
I.Q. testing, like the tests used by HR, to sort people, has proven to be inconsistent at best, and down right misleading at worst.
Especially when you use tests designed for the knowledge set of one ethnicity, on a different one.
And. Many of the jobs that will still exist, depend on empathy and caring, or thoroughness, not intelligence. Intelligence can be an obstacle to success.
Yeah I did a couple of units on psychometric testing. Inside 2 standard deviations the results aren’t very meaningful – outside you may have a problem but could probably tell that without the test. But the whole field is rife with charlatanry. Myers Briggs – often used by HR – is about as objective as astrology – maybe less.
HR, the drug testing industry, and now, safety consultants. All products of finding a new way to charge people for services, propelled by dubious research, by those who have found a new way of charging for un needed services.
The latest is that your house will fail the test, for methamphetamine commonly used, if you had a child on Ritalin. I’m Waiting with bated breath, for the testers and cleaners making a fortune out of P testing houses, to be done for fraud.
As for industry drug testing……………
Wayne_2 look up scaling. A diagnosis of retardation is literal, scaled IQ isn’t.
Pity the MSM cannot just wait for the final count, like Winston, and then have their tuppence worth.
Poor lil empty heads needing instant gratification. Shows how wrong some are in their negative generalisations of “young people today”
” “Kids these days are better at delaying gratification on the marshmallow test,” Protzko writes. “Each year, all else equal, corresponds to an increase in the ability to delay gratification by another six seconds…
On a whole host of other measures — substance use, sexual behavior, seat belt use, to name just a few — teenagers today are performing much better than their peers from several decades ago ( https://www.vox.com/a/teens ). Many of these measures reflect precisely the sort of gratification-delaying ability that the marshmallow test has been shown to predict”
“just wait for the final count”.
Perhaps all people proposing that idea should try it themselves.
Anyone who thinks that the MSM should shut up until next Sunday should stop posting their own views.
Anyone who thinks that the MSM are entitled to say anything they want to, whenever they want to, can continue to do so themselves.
Any starters? Or do people just think that nobody should be allowed to say anything that they personally disapprove of?
Yes, well said.
I can post or comment whatever I like as long as I don’t violate TS Policy https://thestandard.org.nz/policy/.
The people writing for/in MSM have professional standards to uphold and for good reasons.
Now, were you saying (or asking?) that I should shut up because some journos can’t do their jobs properly!?
I am not Christine Rankin – or Wayne – or Tony Veitch – or anyone else.
[lprent: Obviously not. I’d expect that they would be capable of using the reply link so that others could see who you were responding to. I know that it would help me when trying to find out what you were responding to. ]
You’re the car, right?
I never worked out whether it was a manual or automatic so this is my chance 😉
Jim Bolger talks of the “responsibility” of the Greens to negotiate with National. What about the “responsibility” of National over the last 9 years to ensure that there were no shonky carbon credits, the responsibility to ensure that cattle numbers were such that rivers were not becoming more polluted, the responsibility to recognise that further oil and gas exploration was detrimental to the environment, the responsibility to ensure that DOC had sufficient funding to cope with the additional tourist impact causing degradation of some of more fragile environments, the responsibility to act to ban single use plastic shopping bags which are endangering marine species, etc. Where was Jim’s voice over the last 9 years of environmental exploitation?
The same Bolger was on radio before the election saying how marvellous English was because of his moves to help low paid workers and the pay equity deal. You know, like English came up with the idea and rushed through legislation having been made aware of anomalies.
The Greens and no-one else has the responsibility of listening to anyone who is so obviously deluded, senile or just stuffed in the head as Bolger demonstrated with those words
And who regrets his part in perpetuating neoliberalism… I admired him for that, but this?
Jim’s voice was In the neo liberal cupboard along with his caustic comments about the lack of school lunches all those years ago.
Bolger”Don’t tell me they can’t put two slices of bread together”
Shipley at the time, “To make a nourishing meal using my recipes, go to your store cupboard for the following”…. Really???
Neo liberal idiots who have hardly learned anything!!! Full of it!!!
Shipley handed off the sandwich making to a Boarding school
National had a big brag fest in govt for nine years, publicly patting each other on the back and sneering at the Greens, Labour and NZ First. How many times did Carter toss Peters out of the House , for virtually nothing (maybe just being smarter than him)..well now they are friendless and the chickens have come home to roost and the big party at our expense is over.
Heather’s “article” just goes to show that you can still function as a modern journalist, despite not knowing the first thing about that which you’re writing. There’s more substance to a budgie’s fart than there is to her drivel.
22.LOL LOL Luvit!!!
Most of MSM have not read the Green Rules, their Charter, or that they said they will not go with National. None of them address the need for trust in negotiations and post negotiation relationship. The only way any of this makes sense is if you accept that anything National said during the campaign was just meant to win votes and not to be relied upon… which in itself adds to mistrust.
The pressure on the Greens is simple. The Nats don’t expect the Greens to go with them in a million years. If they go with National, it will purely be a bonus outcome for National that will be a three year suicide note for the Greens that’ll leave Bill English smirking.
It is simply about destabilising what the National part clearly sees the most likely outcome of the coalition talks – a Labour-NZF government with the Greens propping it up.
By wooing the Greens they want to make Labour unsure of how much they can offer, lest the Greens actually walk away. That way, National thinks it can win the bidding war.
If their tactics don’t work, their next best option is pressure the Greens to stay out of government except on supply and confidence. They can still spend the next three years trying to wedge the Greens and screaming “illegitimate government”, “unstable” and “coalition of the losers”.
The most interesting thing isn’t the tactics, but the full spectrum command of the MSM opinion writers the National party is demonstrating as it orchestrates it’s campaign of lies.
I also wonder if TV1 or TV2 has a poll coming out before next weekend and the Nats are trying to lure voters into thinking the Greens ought to go with them. After all they have just proved how easily led they are by Nat Party lying and cheating.
And are the big donors looking at reviving the end MMP campaign? Shirtcliffe anyone?
It is obvious national are playing more dirty politics. They are faking they want a deal with either NZF or Greens. What they really want is to go for another election. And they fancy their chances given they know the Greens won’t be pushed around by Peters or Jones.
Of course they will act all innocent saying look we bent over backwards trying to accommodate a deal but the others didn’t want it. Trickery no doubt about it.
“Reporters” think, they should say who is in power, not voters, who they despise in their worship of authority.
Oh what a magnificent right wing paradise NZ must be in the minds of Roughen , Armstrong and the other pretend journalists of the Herald.
The crap they fill this newspaper with should be treated with the contempt it deserves.
These are the people who believe that the ” natural party of government ” should be a permanent state of affairs and that only National should govern and why bother with regular elections because only National can rule in the interests of their constituency and everyone else should be grateful of their tax cut and go away and be quiet while their supporters grow their wealth and their support base are looked after by not changing the status quo with nasty water taxes or strong employment law.
But unfortunately for them this is a democracy of sorts and people do wake up every ten years or so and demand something better than the National party prescription and vote for change and Labour is ready to lead that change when called upon.
I would have liked to see Adern with 42-45 % of the vote which would have been a good place to start.
This is NOT a change election on these numbers.
And the right wing sympathisers of the Herald know that and have hedged their bets on the ruling party ……….that being National to form the next government.
Things are not helped by having the likes of Chris Trotter bleating that New Zealanders are to narrow minded to accept anything but a National led government (WTF is wrong with that guy? He is a defeated man, old before his time, who sees all the problems and none of the opportunities) and the other usual “left” lap poodles like Pagani and Quinn joining the pile on.
I remember Marilyn Waring (Nat MP/who in fact Inhad some time for
stating that 7% of unemployment was essential or National Policies to be successful. That was Tory policy then and still is.That’s why they have crushed Unions .
This is all very much out of the Hillary Clinton DNC playbook. If you end up losing its not your fault so its not you that has to change anything rather the rules need changing so that next time they favour you even more. Luckily in Nz we have a fairer voting system which is unlikely to be changed in the near future and if the Nats cant hack it in this system they will just atrophy and die.