The Wave Crashing In…

Written By: - Date published: 6:02 pm, February 23rd, 2020 - 67 comments
Categories: Bernie Sanders, class war, elections, International, Politics, us politics - Tags: , , ,

Sanders has just walked home in Nevada.

Honestly, that should come as no surprise to anyone. He’ll probably win most of the remaining states too, and the only question that remains unsettled is whether his support will be such that there will be no brokered convention.

All other candidates have stated their belief that in the event of a brokered convention, the candidate with the most support should not automatically be the nominee.

According to them, it would be right and proper for Super Delegates to decide who the nominee is.

Think about that.

The contenders to be the Democratic nominee think that unelected establishment elites, with a lot vested in keeping things as they are, have a right to ignore and usurp the will of voting people.

That’s why Bloomberg is running (in the hope of achieving a brokered convention). And it’s probably the only reason Elizabeth Warren is still running. She has no path to the nomination besides being a “dead rat” (or unity) candidate of establishment elites.

And so now the only race is between Bernie and the goal of 1 886 delegates needed to secure the nomination.

Assuming no mass “drop out” by the remaining candidates, the only way Sanders can be thwarted is if a third and/or fourth candidate routinely breaches the 15% threshold in states and subsequently drags Sanders’ total number of delegates shy of the required number to secure a non-contested convention.

This video (reposted from a previous post) gives a simple explanation of how the delegate count alters quite drastically when a third or fourth candidate achieves over 15% of the vote.

To pre-empt some nonsense that might come from centrists. No. This is not comparable to Clinton winning the popular vote and losing the 2016 election. And no, this is not comparable to National winning most votes but not forming the government in NZ last time around.

The closest comparison I can think of is the NZ Labour Party reserving a decisive slice of the vote for party leader within the parliamentary caucus.

It’s the trench that threatened vested interests retreat to – it’s their Maginot Line designed to obstruct and thwart any inconvenient democratic will of the people. 

67 comments on “The Wave Crashing In… ”

  1. mosa 1

    Yes Bill

    The will of the people does not count if it is a candidate the establishment Democratic party does not want.

    And Bernies one person one vote will be rendered meaningless.

    The worlds greatest democracy ensures that the vote of the people is a charade if they don't vote the way they should , for an establishment status quo chosen candidate.

    A government of the people by the people for the people rings pretty hollow.

  2. adam 2

    It was one of the most scummist things I've ever seen – watching the democratic candidates saying the popular count did not mean shit. Funny how they have changed their tune since 2016.

    On good news front –

    I keep hearing no other candidate in modern US history from either party has won the popular vote in the first 3 elections – do you know if that is true Bill?

    One other good piece of news, is Bernie did well in the older demographic (over 65), he is now equal with Biden with that age bracket.

  3. aj 3

    Assuming no fuckery bringing about a brokered convention, and hopefully no ……

    Bill I can't bring myself to type that last word in from your open mike comment, but I'm glad you brought it up. Such are the power bases threatened by Bernie Sanders winning the nomination, that this is a clear risk. I hope he and his team are taking as much care as possible.

  4. RedLogix 5

    And now might be a good time to take a few moments to review Bernie's position on the issues.

    The large majority I fully endorse, but there are some I suspect he's going to get some pushback on. The US electorate is fundamentally tilted more to the libertarian than we're used to; freedom is a very important value to many Americans.

    It's good to see Bernie out in front at this point, and I do believe he can beat Trump, but it's too soon to tell how the cards are going to fall once Sanders is exposed to more media scrutiny.

    • Drowsy M. Kram 5.1

      If democrats and the Democratic party machine unite behind Bernie, and if the US MSM is even-handed in its 'scrutiny' of presidential incumbent Trump and challenger Sanders (assuming that 'race'), then Sanders might appear to be a relatively good choice.

      Those are BIG 'ifs' – here's hoping…

      • Adrian Thornton 5.1.1

        @Drowsy..the establishment DNC.and Liberal US MSM I think have proved (just like their contemporaries in the UK) that they would rather lose than win with a real progressive, that is just a plain fact..and you can be sure the same would hold true in little old NZ too if we were lucky enough to have a real progressive to kick off a progressive Socialist movement within the free market liberal NZ Labour party.

        • Bill 5.1.1.1

          You mean if a bog standard social democrat like say – oh, I dunno – a Cunliffe became leader of NZ Labour? Or maybe you mean if a Metirea Turei threw a stick of dynamite at the heart of liberalism in the shape of some common sense welfare observations and solutions?

          I remember arguing with someone close to the Cunliffe campaign that a movement was needed – one that was broader in scope than what Cunliffe (or the Green Party) could encompass, but one that both could take pointers from.

          On a similar note, that arsehat Jon Lansman killed Momentum by making it an adjunct of the UK Labour Party. That Corbyn and others in leadership seemingly didn't understand the pit falls of centralism doesn't speak well to any prospect of a new social democracy that wasn't going to be a repeat of the bureaucratic hell of 1970s social democracy.

          As for the movement propelling Benrie Sanders. I have no idea as to how top down it may be.

          • Gosman 5.1.1.1.1

            How was Corbyn knobbled by centralism? I thought he was knobbled by the fact people thought he was a leftist promising too many things that he couldn't or shouldn't deliver.

            • Bill 5.1.1.1.1.1

              Well. You know what thought did…

              • Gosman

                You are a prime example of why the far left fail repeatedly in Western democracies. You never address the real reasons why people reject leftists policies or why they fail. Instead you create reasons seemingly out of the air. In Corbyn's case it wasn't because people didn't like him personally or believe all the policies he pushed as a collective (not individual policies themselves which were quite popular) were deem pie in the sky dreaming. Instead to you it is because he failed to articulate why they implementation of them would be be done in an inclusive and democratic manner.

                • RedLogix

                  That's a sound point Gosman. I know it will irk the tribal lefties here, but that comment has a sense of sincerity and solidity to it. When I scanned through all Sander's policy positions, while I liked many of them (and didn't like some) … as a whole they feel implausible.

                • Bill

                  Gosman. You want a discussion about Corbyn and the UK election? Then take it to open mike. Regardless, any more straw man arguments (assertions around points not made) or putting words in my mouth again ( eg – "Instead to you it is because…") will result in you receiving a ban from the site (yet again).

                  Now. How's that feather of yours coming along? Growing just as thought thought?

                  • Gosman

                    You brought Corbyn in to the discussion not I. However as RL points out the point I raised can apply equally to Sanders. People might like his policies on their own merit but as part of a radical left wing agenda it is going to turn people off. Many people just don't trust that such radical changes are realistic. It is why incremental changes in democracies tend to happen over radical ones. Radical ones can come about but usually only as the result of dealing with an immediate crisis and only if the vast majority of the country is united behind them.

                    • Aaron

                      Why does anyone ever bother debating with Gosman? He's such a right wing troll that there is never any chance of reasoned debate, Based on his actions I'd have to say his primary purpose is to waste time and distract people from constructive debate.

                • DS

                  Corbyn lost because the election was a re-run of the Brexit Referendum, as run under First Past the Post. Policies had nothing to do with it (and to be honest, neither did Corbyn).

          • Adrian Thornton 5.1.1.1.2

            Sanders has been very astute to keep pushing the narrative that the only way to achieve any of his proposed progressive agenda is by way of an well organized and highly motivated movement who are prepared to do battle head to head with the enemy..ie the the status quo establishment.

            A small taste of what that could will look like..

            https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/339058-sanders-i-hope-mcconnell-listened-to-protesters-outside-his-office

            Yes Cunliffe and Metirea Turei are who I was thinking of, and yes you are quite right, a popular movement (usually coalescing around a driving personality) is the only way forward toward any kind of serious Left wing progressive change on these shores.

  5. Phil 6

    And no, this is not comparable to National winning most votes but not forming the government in NZ last time around.

    Nah, bro. Try as you might to weasle out of it, you're wrong here. If Bernie gets, say, 40% of the delegates, and three 'moderates' (e,g Bloom, Butteg, Klob) each get 20%… that's a mandate for a moderate policy stance. It makes plausible sense for them to combine forces and put one of them at the top of the ticket on a moderate platform, because that's what the majority of democrats voted for.

    • Bill 6.1

      You seem to believe that voter preference splits along ideological lines. That's simply not true though. Poll after poll shows Bernie Sanders as the second choice for those who intend to vote for Biden et al.

      It's only the likes of CNN and MSNBC who try to peddle the progressive and moderate bloc nonsense. And they do it in spite of knowing those second preference polls reveal their "analysis" as a nonsense.

      • Phil 6.1.1

        Across the policy spectrum the differences between Biden, Bloomberg, Mayor Pete and Amy K are smaller than between them and Bernie. Biden and all the other moderates hold stances on healthcare that are variations on "M4A is too hard" – and healthcare is going to be probably the key Democrat plank in the general election.

        Every single one of them has made a case (either straight out warning against, or implicitly in the debates) against Bernie being the nominee.

        Once the delegate totals are known and everyone's at the convention, voters, directly, cease to matter. In a real sense voters will have said "we can't decide" and now the negotiations begin. It's entirely conceivable and should not be a surprise that the moderates might box out Bernie in that scenario.

        • Bill 6.1.1.1

          In spite of bad actors (eg – insurance company ad campaigns) muddying the waters, Medicare for All remains highly popular with the US public.

          And in an unbrokered convention, delegates who were put in place by voters to back a particular candidate, back said candidate, and the candidate with over 50% of pledged delegates becomes the nominee.

          Did you honestly miss the point I was making about how voters rank their choice of candidate? It's not along the ideological lines of the candidates themselves. So, for example, Bernie Sanders is the second choice of more Biden supporters than any other candidate.

          But if peeps want to pretend there's a clean split among voters that corresponds with the ideological position of candidates, then apart from being a disingenuous argument designed to justify undermining the democratic will of voters, it's just so much analytical pants.

          • Phil 6.1.1.1.1

            No-one's pretending there's a clean split. All i'm saying is that I can easily conceive of a situation where Sanders holds a plurality of delegates but he is shut out by other candidates who feel they can more effectively work together, and they combine to hold a majority.

            Where, exactly, does that leave the democratic party… who knows?

            • Bill 6.1.1.1.1.1

              And (I wonder), would you push that same argument in the theoretical case of a combined Gabbard, Sanders, di Blasio and Gravel vote being larger than a Buttigeig vote in a convention where Buttigeig had most pledged delegates?

              Hey, maybe you'd comment on the Olympics high jump and argue that the second, third and fourth placed athletes should get the gold medal because their accumulated cleared heights surpasses the height of the bar cleared by the winner?

              The nominee process is a first past the post election. The fuckery comes in when/if the DNC moves the finishing line.

              • Andre

                The primary is not a first past the post system as we generally use the term here in NZ. It is a process that requires a candidate to gather an absolute majority, not a mere plurality.

                If the voters produce a consensus absolute majority for a candidate via the pledged delegates, then that candidate becomes the nominee. No ifs, buts or maybes.

                If the voters fail to produce an absolute majority, effectively doing a "we can't decide", then to become the nominee a candidate has to build a majority consensus at the convention. At which point those who have put enough into the party to be granted the status of superdelegate get to make their voices hears. Since the superdelegates have generally achieved that status by winning elections of one kind or another, I'm kind of inclined to think they have some extra expertise that should be influential in choosing the nominee. If the voters haven't already made a clear choice, that is.

                • Bill

                  Where's the post? At 1991. Whoever gets past that point, wins. That's FPP.

                  As asked of Joe, is the argument that super-delegates have a moral authority to take the expressed democratic will of people "on advisement" only and just select who-ever is perceived to best serve their own interests?

                  • Phil

                    Where's the post? At 1991 [delegates]. Whoever gets past that point, wins. That's FPP.

                    Narrator: That is not a description of FPP.

              • Phil

                If no-one reaches 50% alone, then it's a game of coalition building. I don't have a dog in the fight, other than to say that as long as Trump and his craven horde are unceremoniously kicked to the curb I don't really care which Democrat sits in the oval office.

                To put the shoe on the other foot: Imagine Sanders and Warren each get 30% of the delegates and, say, Bloomberg gets 40%. You, for one, would be packing such a shit about the mandate for a (US-version) far left policy platform that it could be seen from outer space.

                • Bill

                  If Bloomberg had 40% because 2 wannabes couldn't get their shit together so that there was only one other person running against Bloomberg, I'd be in a state of depression.

                  The centrist fucks jockying for position to be a corporate unity or dead rat candidate are just that – fucks.

                  The word "dumb" should be a pre-fix there. Anyway…

                  • Phil

                    Bloomberg had 40%… I'd be in a state of depression.

                    Amen to that, brother.

                    The centrist fucks jockying for position to be a corporate unity or dead rat candidate are just that – fucks.

                    Sounds like an implicit admission that your stance is pro-Bernie and be damned with democracy. 😛

                    • Bill

                      Let me be explicit for you Phil.

                      I'm working class. So I'm supportive of any politician running on a platform that promotes meaningful policies for my class.

    • WeTheBleeple 6.2

      That's really dishonest. People are not voting for centrists or progressives or moderates – they're voting for candidates. The candidate with the most votes is the candidate with the most public support, period. A brokered convention is exactly as Bill described, a Maginot line to protect BAU. Democracy the musical.

      • Phil 6.2.1

        People are voting for candidates who hold differing policy positions. They're not just voting for a face.

        The candidate with the most votes is the candidate with the most public support, period.

        That's tautological and irrelevant. The issue is not who has the most votes, FPP style, it's who can command the majority. If Sanders cannot corral other delegates to his cause on a second vote (assuming he doesn't reach 50% or near enough) that's literally democracy in action.

        • WeTheBleeple 6.2.1.1

          Tautological? Irrelevant?

          Thank you for pointing out people are considering policies attached to faces. I feel enlightened.

          If Sanders takes over half the vote and a pack of embedded guardians of the grift keep him locked out, that is not democracy, it's fucked up.

          • joe90 6.2.1.1.1

            All of the candidates agreed to run as members of the Democratic Party and all agreed to abide by the rules. The rules state that a candidate needs the votes of 1,991 delegates to become the party’s nominee.

            The rules rule.

            • Bill 6.2.1.1.1.1

              That's a bit of a trite argument there Joe. The issue isn't the 1991 delegate votes.

              The issue is whether super-delegates, many with vested interests, have the moral authority to vote against the will of those who have voted – ie – to simply take the vote of those who participated in state primaries "on advisement" and hand the nomination to "a buddy" regardless.

          • Andre 6.2.1.1.2

            While it is mathematically possible for someone to win over half the vote and wind up with slightly less than half the delegates, it would take an extremely odd configuration of votes to achieve that.

            On the flip side, it is quite likely for a candidate with a small plurality running against a fractured opposition to in fact end up with a majority of delegates. Because the way delegates are allocated and the 15% threshold means the candidate with the most votes in each state often ends up with a winner's bonus plus a disproportionate share of the delegates by virtue of the wasted votes cut off by the threshold.

            This is an undemocratic aspect of the primary system that Bernie is very likely to be a substantial beneficiary from. Indeed, after the Nevada results are finalised, Bernie's share of delegates awarded will be substantially greater than his vote share so far.

            • Bill 6.2.1.1.2.1

              Hang on. Are you're arguing that Bernie as the frontrunner and most popular candidate among voters, will accrue 'winners' advantages over those less popular and losing candidates?

              And is there an implied suggestion that any such advantage be reversed by super-delegates?

              • Andre

                The 'winner's bonus' is illustrated by the still provisional Iowa results where Buttigieg got a 14 to 12 advantage in pledged convention delegates from a minuscule lead in SDEs (and a deficit in actual votes).

                • Bill

                  Many different forms of advantage accrue to winners. And many depend on the framework around elections. So, for example, Trump won the US election because of a particular framework that seeks to give each state a equal say in terms of representation.

                  The DNC has a framework too. A crap one.

                  But again. The question isn't about the framework, but about any supposed moral authority of super-delegates to act against the expressed will of voters as presented at the Convention.

                  • Phil

                    The question isn't about the framework, but about any supposed moral authority of super-delegates to act against the expressed will of voters as presented at the Convention.

                    There's nothing in the Constitution about parties, let alone how they should elect a presidential contender. The existing rules and state-level legislation for primary elections are haphazard and have evolved over literally centuries.

                    The moral authority for super-delegates is derived from the fact that the party is a private entity and they are the party 'elders' (for want of a better term) that have invested their blood sweat and tears into it.

                    There's no such thing as an philosophically/objectively correct way to determine an election nominee, so they can do whatever the agreed rules allow.

          • Phil 6.2.1.1.3

            If Sanders takes over half the vote and a pack of embedded guardians of the grift keep him locked out, that is not democracy, it's fucked up.

            Jesus Christ WTB, learn to read!

            If Sanders gets over half the vote (i.e. delegates) he wins on the first vote. Congrats Bernie, now lets go destroy Trump.

            However, if he *doesn't* get 50% on the first vote, which is looking far more realistic than in any past election of recent memory, then other candidates have the same rights as Bernie to negotiate and build coalitions of delegates to create their own majority.

            • Bill 6.2.1.1.3.1

              Uh-huh, just like rich people have as much right to sleep under bridges as poor people, a prospective nominee running on a social democratic platform has as much right to build a coalition of delegates from a pool of corporatists as the corporatists they are running against. 🙄

            • WeTheBleeple 6.2.1.1.3.2

              Thanks for the advice to learn to read. I responded to a hypothetical you proposed Bernie 40% etc. Yet in your answer you bring in a different scenario and try to paint me an idiot for sticking to the first one.

              I can read just fine. Get off your high horse.

              • Phil

                *you* were the one who randomly threw in "If Sanders takes over half the vote" when we weren't talking about that at all.

  6. " … unelected establishment elites …"

    Super delegates ARE elected, in some form or other. Most are those elected to the DNC, the highest representative body in the party. Others are those Democratic party members who currently are elected senators or Governors. The smallest group is twenty or so retired office holders, including former Presidents Clinton and Obama.

    The super delegates are supposed to act as a senate; grey heads giving wise advice etc. It may not be perfect, but it is democratic.

    • Bill 7.1

      Many may be otherwise elected officials (others being party functionaries), but the selection process of who will be a super delegate is a "behind closed doors' selection process – not an election process.

      In other words, on the one hand, it's even less democratic than the framework for NZ Labours' Leadership elections insofar as the 50% of the vote reserved for caucus in NZ is at least a 50% "weighting" reserved solely for elected representatives serving in Parliament.

      But on the other hand, super delegates account for around 15% or 16% of the vote and not 50% as in the NZ Labour set up.

      But sure. To state that superdelegates are "unelected establishment elites" is a possibly, but unintentionally misleading turn of phrase.

      • Cheers, Bill. Oddly, if Bernie Sanders won his senate seat as a Democratic party candidate, rather than as an independent, he'd be a super delegate too.

        That independent candidate status is actually one of the reasons he's not trusted at the top of the party. He's not seen as loyal to the Democrats, though that's clearly a vote winner out in the wider population.

    • Tiger Mountain 7.2

      Why apologise for the fuckers TRP? Oh, that a peak form Hunter Thompson equivalent could cover this nerve wracking campaign. Pete Buttplug announcing an Iowa win with zero reporting in? nice…and that is how it will go down to the wire.

      Bernie is on “last chance power drive” and heroically sacrificing his twilight years for others and his long standing beliefs, people are starting to see that. Sanders supporters are ok about standing up–because they are essentially voting for their own empowerment.

      • I'm not apologising for anyone, TM. I was just pointing out that this is a legitimate part of the Democratic party's internal electoral system.

        I'm fine with Bernie Sanders as it happens. I preferred Clinton to him last time because I thought she'd win more votes. The shame of it is that she could have picked Bernie as her VP candidate and they may well have gotten over the line. Anybody remember who she did pick? No, me neither.

  7. Bill 8

    Just to throw in an example of how small shifts in percentages can have a large impact on the number of pledged delegates candidates receive.

    At 60% reporting, Sanders has 46% of the vote share. Biden has 19.6% and Buttigeig 15.3%

    On a rough and ready calculation for illustrative purposes only, that would yield Sanders 20 delegates, Biden 9 and Buttigeig 7.

    With a mere 0.4% drop for Buttigeig (ie – 14.9%), Sanders would get 25 delegates, Biden 10 and Buttigeig 0.

    Sanders needs a total delegate count that's over half of the total available on a state by state basis. That means if three candidates or more clear the 15% threshold, he has to win big just to win . In this instance , the difference is 5 delegates, or in percentage terms, 71% of available delegates versus 57%.

    He won big in Nevada 😉

    • Andre 8.1

      At 60% reporting, Bernie has 46% of the county delegate share.

      In vote share, he got 21,869 of the 55,607 votes counted so far, for a 39% vote share (so far).

      https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/nevada/

      nb: In 2016 he got 47.3% of the delegate share from Nevada. Since there were only 2 candidates competing, it is a safe assumption that was pretty close to the vote share. So he’s dropped around 8% of his vote share from 2016 to 2020.

      • Bill 8.1.1

        Like I said Andre – it's a rough and ready calculation for illustrative purposes only. There are other layers of calculation go into deciding the allocation of delegates.

        And Wow! His vote share has only dropped 8 points when a previous field of two is compared to a field of several! That's pretty good going, aye?

  8. Cinny 9

    The Listening Post did an interesting story on Saturday about Bernie and the scaremongering from the corporate media….. it's the first story up, link below

    Sanders vs Bloomberg and the corporate media machine

    We're in the early days of the US election season and the battle for the right to take on Donald Trump currently looks like a two-horse race.

    On the progressive side of the Democratic Party, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. To his right, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

    In the coverage of the two candidates – whose politics are poles apart – the US news media are showing their corporate bias. Sanders is a democratic socialist, Bloomberg is the 9th-richest person in the world.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_9C1DEgowc

  9. Andre 10

    Of the 36 pledged convention delegates at stake, Bernie is projected to get 24 (67%), Biden 9 (25%) and Buttigieg 3 (8%). From vote shares of 41%, 20% and 17%.

    Details that show how this undemocratic AF outcome comes to be are found below.

    https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/NV-D

  10. DS 11

    Anyone hoping for a brokered convention to stop Bernie is an idiot. There hasn't been one since 1952, and as much as sad political geeks hunger for one, it's unlikely to happen.

    Much more likely is the Establishment quietly trying to foist their VP choice on Bernie. Which, given Bernie's age, will be the subject of much discussion.

    • pat 11.1

      The Establishment wont wait for that to be forced upon them….they'll be pulling outall the stops long before it gets to that point

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    The City Rail Link has been in the headlines a bit recently so I thought I’d look at some of them. First up, yesterday the NZ Herald ran this piece about the ongoing costs of the CRL. Auckland ratepayers will be saddled with an estimated bill of $220 million each ...
    1 day ago
  • And I don't want the world to see us.
    Is this the most shambolic government in the history of New Zealand? Given that parliament hasn’t even opened they’ve managed quite a list of achievements to date.The Smokefree debacle trading lives for tax cuts, the Trumpian claims of bribery in the Media, an International award for indifference, and today the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 day ago
  • Cooking the books
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis late yesterday stopped only slightly short of accusing her predecessor Grant Robertson of cooking the books. She complained that the Half Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU), due to be made public on December 20, would show “fiscal cliffs” that would amount to “billions of ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 day ago
  • Most people don’t realize how much progress we’ve made on climate change
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The year was 2015. ‘Uptown Funk’ with Bruno Mars was at the top of the music charts. Jurassic World was the most popular new movie in theaters. And decades of futility in international climate negotiations was about to come to an end in ...
    2 days ago
  • Of Parliamentary Oaths and Clive Boonham
    As a heads-up, I am not one of those people who stay awake at night thinking about weird Culture War nonsense. At least so far as the current Maori/Constitutional arrangements go. In fact, I actually consider it the least important issue facing the day to day lives of New ...
    2 days ago
  • Bearing True Allegiance?
    Strong Words: “We do not consent, we do not surrender, we do not cede, we do not submit; we, the indigenous, are rising. We do not buy into the colonial fictions this House is built upon. Te Pāti Māori pledges allegiance to our mokopuna, our whenua, and Te Tiriti o ...
    2 days ago
  • You cannot be serious
    Some days it feels like the only thing to say is: Seriously? No, really. Seriously?OneSomeone has used their health department access to share data about vaccinations and patients, and inform the world that New Zealanders have been dying in their hundreds of thousands from the evil vaccine. This of course is pure ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • A promise kept: govt pulls the plug on Lake Onslow scheme – but this saving of $16bn is denounced...
    Buzz from the Beehive After $21.8 million was spent on investigations, the plug has been pulled on the Lake Onslow pumped-hydro electricity scheme, The scheme –  that technically could have solved New Zealand’s looming energy shortage, according to its champions – was a key part of the defeated Labour government’s ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago
  • CHRIS TROTTER: The Maori Party and Oath of Allegiance
    If those elected to the Māori Seats refuse to take them, then what possible reason could the country have for retaining them?   Chris Trotter writes – Christmas is fast approaching, which, as it does every year, means gearing up for an abstruse general knowledge question. “Who was ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago
  • BRIAN EASTON:  Forward to 2017
    The coalition party agreements are mainly about returning to 2017 when National lost power. They show commonalities but also some serious divergencies. Brian Easton writes The two coalition agreements – one National and ACT, the other National and New Zealand First – are more than policy documents. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • Climate Change: Fossils
    When the new government promised to allow new offshore oil and gas exploration, they were warned that there would be international criticism and reputational damage. Naturally, they arrogantly denied any possibility that that would happen. And then they finally turned up at COP, to criticism from Palau, and a "fossil ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • GEOFFREY MILLER:  NZ’s foreign policy resets on AUKUS, Gaza and Ukraine
    Geoffrey Miller writes – New Zealand’s international relations are under new management. And Winston Peters, the new foreign minister, is already setting a change agenda. As expected, this includes a more pro-US positioning when it comes to the Pacific – where Peters will be picking up where he ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the government’s smokefree laws debacle
    The most charitable explanation for National’s behaviour over the smokefree legislation is that they have dutifully fulfilled the wishes of the Big Tobacco lobby and then cast around – incompetently, as it turns out – for excuses that might sell this health policy U-turn to the public. The less charitable ...
    2 days ago
  • Top 10 links at 10 am for Monday, December 4
    As Deb Te Kawa writes in an op-ed, the new Government seems to have immediately bought itself fights with just about everyone. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere as of 10 am on Monday December 4, including:Palau’s President ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Be Honest.
    Let’s begin today by thinking about job interviews.During my career in Software Development I must have interviewed hundreds of people, hired at least a hundred, but few stick in the memory.I remember one guy who was so laid back he was practically horizontal, leaning back in his chair until his ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: New Zealand’s foreign policy resets on AUKUS, Gaza and Ukraine
    New Zealand’s international relations are under new management. And Winston Peters, the new foreign minister, is already setting a change agenda. As expected, this includes a more pro-US positioning when it comes to the Pacific – where Peters will be picking up where he left off. Peters sought to align ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    2 days ago
  • Auckland rail tunnel the world’s most expensive
    Auckland’s city rail link is the most expensive rail project in the world per km, and the CRL boss has described the cost of infrastructure construction in Aotearoa as a crisis. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The 3.5 km City Rail Link (CRL) tunnel under Auckland’s CBD has cost ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • First big test coming
    The first big test of the new Government’s approach to Treaty matters is likely to be seen in the return of the Resource Management Act. RMA Minister Chris Bishop has confirmed that he intends to introduce legislation to repeal Labour’s recently passed Natural and Built Environments Act and its ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago
  • The Song of Saqua: Volume III
    Time to revisit something I haven’t covered in a while: the D&D campaign, with Saqua the aquatic half-vampire. Last seen in July: https://phuulishfellow.wordpress.com/2023/07/27/the-song-of-saqua-volume-ii/ The delay is understandable, once one realises that the interim saw our DM come down with a life-threatening medical situation. They have since survived to make ...
    2 days ago
  • Chris Bishop: Smokin’
    Yes. Correct. It was an election result. And now we are the elected government. ...
    My ThinksBy boonman
    3 days ago
  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #48
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Nov 26, 2023 thru Dec 2, 2023. Story of the Week CO2 readings from Mauna Loa show failure to combat climate change Daily atmospheric carbon dioxide data from Hawaiian volcano more ...
    3 days ago
  • Affirmative Action.
    Affirmative Action was a key theme at this election, although I don’t recall anyone using those particular words during the campaign.They’re positive words, and the way the topic was talked about was anything but. It certainly wasn’t a campaign of saying that Affirmative Action was a good thing, but that, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • 100 days of something
    It was at the end of the Foxton straights, at the end of 1978, at 100km/h, that someone tried to grab me from behind on my Yamaha.They seemed to be yanking my backpack. My first thought was outrage. My second was: but how? Where have they come from? And my ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • Look who’s stepped up to champion Winston
    There’s no news to be gleaned from the government’s official website today  – it contains nothing more than the message about the site being under maintenance. The time this maintenance job is taking and the costs being incurred have us musing on the government’s commitment to an assault on inflation. ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • What's The Story?
    Don’t you sometimes wish they’d just tell the truth? No matter how abhorrent or ugly, just straight up tell us the truth?C’mon guys, what you’re doing is bad enough anyway, pretending you’re not is only adding insult to injury.Instead of all this bollocks about the Smokefree changes being to do ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • The longest of weeks
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Friday Under New Management Week in review, quiz style1. Which of these best describes Aotearoa?a. Progressive nation, proud of its egalitarian spirit and belief in a fair go b. Best little country on the planet c. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Suggested sessions of EGU24 to submit abstracts to
    Like earlier this year, members from our team will be involved with next year's General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU). The conference will take place on premise in Vienna as well as online from April 14 to 19, 2024. The session catalog has been available since November 1 ...
    5 days ago
  • Under New Management
    1. Which of these best describes Aotearoa?a. Progressive nation, proud of its egalitarian spirit and belief in a fair go b. Best little country on the planet c. Under New Management 2. Which of these best describes the 100 days of action announced this week by the new government?a. Petulantb. Simplistic and wrongheaded c. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • While we wait patiently, our new Minister of Education is up and going with a 100-day action plan
    Sorry to say, the government’s official website is still out of action. When Point of Order paid its daily visit, the message was the same as it has been for the past week: Site under maintenance Beehive.govt.nz is currently under maintenance. We will be back shortly. Thank you for your ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • DAVID FARRAR: Hysterical bullshit
    Radio NZ reports: Te Pāti Māori’s co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer has accused the new government of “deliberate .. systemic genocide” over its policies to roll back the smokefree policy and the Māori Health Authority. The left love hysterical language. If you oppose racial quotas in laws, you are a racist. And now if you sack ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48 2023
    Open access notables From this week's government/NGO section, longitudinal data is gold and Leisorowitz, Maibachi et al. continue to mine ore from the US public with Climate Change in the American Mind: Politics & Policy, Fall 2023: Drawing on a representative sample of the U.S. adult population, the authors describe how registered ...
    5 days ago
  • ELE LUDEMANN: It wasn’t just $55 million
    Ele Ludemann writes –  Winston Peters reckons media outlets were bribed by the $55 million Public Interest Journalism Fund. He is not the first to make such an accusation. Last year, the Platform outlined conditions media signed up to in return for funds from the PJIF: . . . ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 1-December-2023
    Wow, it’s December already, and it’s a Friday. So here are few things that caught our attention recently. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt covered the new government’s coalition agreements and what they mean for transport. On Tuesday Matt looked at AT’s plans for fare increases ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    5 days ago
  • Shane MacGowan Is Gone.
    Late 1996, The Dogs Bollix, Tamaki Makaurau.I’m at the front of the bar yelling my order to the bartender, jostling with other thirsty punters on a Friday night, keen to piss their wages up against a wall letting loose. The black stuff, long luscious pints of creamy goodness. Back down ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to Dec 1
    Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop and other National, ACT and NZ First MPs applaud the signing of the coalition agreements, which included the reversal of anti-smoking measures while accelerating tax cuts for landlords. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • 2023 More Reading: November (+ Writing Update)
    Completed reads for November: A Modern Utopia, by H.G. Wells The Vampire (poem), by Heinrich August Ossenfelder The Corpus Hermeticum The Corpus Hermeticum is Mead’s translation. Now, this is indeed a very quiet month for reading. But there is a reason for that… You see, ...
    6 days ago
  • Forward to 2017
    The coalition party agreements are mainly about returning to 2017 when National lost power. They show commonalities but also some serious divergencies.The two coalition agreements – one National and ACT, the other National and New Zealand First – are more than policy documents. They also describe the processes of the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    6 days ago
  • Questions a nine year old might ask the new Prime Minister
    First QuestionYou’re going to crack down on people ram-raiding dairies, because you say hard-working dairy owners shouldn’t have to worry about getting ram-raided.But once the chemist shops have pseudoephedrine in them again, they're going to get ram-raided all the time. Do chemists not work as hard as dairy owners?Second QuestionYou ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Questions a nine year old might ask the new Prime Minister
    First QuestionYou’re going to crack down on people ram-raiding dairies, because you say hard-working dairy owners shouldn’t have to worry about getting ram-raided.But once the chemist shops have pseudoephedrine in them again, they're going to get ram-raided all the time. Do chemists not work as hard as dairy owners?Second QuestionYou ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Finally
    Henry Kissinger is finally dead. Good fucking riddance. While Americans loved him, he was a war criminal, responsible for most of the atrocities of the final quarter of the twentieth century. Cambodia. Bangladesh. Chile. East Timor. All Kissinger. Because of these crimes, Americans revere him as a "statesman" (which says ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Government in a hurry – Luxon lists 49 priorities in 100-day plan while Peters pledges to strength...
    Buzz from the Beehive Yes, ministers in the new government are delivering speeches and releasing press statements. But the message on the government’s official website was the same as it has been for the past several days, when Point of Order went looking for news from the Beehive that had ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • DAVID FARRAR: Luxon is absolutely right
    David Farrar writes  –  1 News reports: Christopher Luxon says he was told by some Kiwis on the campaign trail they “didn’t know” the difference between Waka Kotahi, Te Pūkenga and Te Whatu Ora. Speaking to Breakfast, the incoming prime minister said having English first on government agencies will “make sure” ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Top 10 at 10 am for Thursday, Nov 30
    There are fears that mooted changes to building consent liability could end up driving the building industry into an uninsured hole. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere as of 10 am on Thursday, November 30, including:The new Government’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on how climate change threatens cricket‘s future
    Well that didn’t last long, did it? Mere days after taking on what he called the “awesome responsibility” of being Prime Minister, M Christopher Luxon has started blaming everyone else, and complaining that he has inherited “economic vandalism on an unprecedented scale” – which is how most of us are ...
    6 days ago
  • We need to talk about Tory.
    The first I knew of the news about Tory Whanau was when a tweet came up in my feed.The sort of tweet that makes you question humanity, or at least why you bother with Twitter. Which is increasingly a cesspit of vile inhabitants who lurk spreading negativity, hate, and every ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • Dangling Transport Solutions
    Cable Cars, Gondolas, Ropeways and Aerial Trams are all names for essentially the same technology and the world’s biggest maker of them are here to sell them as an public transport solution. Stuff reports: Austrian cable car company Doppelmayr has launched its case for adding aerial cable cars to New ...
    6 days ago
  • November AMA
    Hi,It’s been awhile since I’ve done an Ask-Me-Anything on here, so today’s the day. Ask anything you like in the comments section, and I’ll be checking in today and tomorrow to answer.Leave a commentNext week I’ll be giving away a bunch of these Mister Organ blu-rays for readers in New ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • National’s early moves adding to cost of living pressure
    The cost of living grind continues, and the economic and inflation honeymoon is over before it began. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: PM Christopher Luxon unveiled his 100 day plan yesterday with an avowed focus of reducing cost-of-living pressures, but his Government’s initial moves and promises are actually elevating ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Backwards to the future
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has confirmed that it will be back to the future on planning legislation. This will be just one of a number of moves which will see the new government go backwards as it repeals and cost-cuts its way into power. They will completely repeal one ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago
  • New initiatives in science and technology could point the way ahead for Luxon government
    As the new government settles into the Beehive, expectations are high that it can sort out some  of  the  economic issues  confronting  New Zealand. It may take time for some new  ministers to get to grips with the range of their portfolio work and responsibilities before they can launch the  changes that  ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    7 days ago
  • Treaty pledge to secure funding is contentious – but is Peters being pursued by a lynch mob after ...
    TV3 political editor Jenna Lynch was among the corps of political reporters who bridled, when Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters told them what he thinks of them (which is not much). She was unabashed about letting her audience know she had bridled. More usefully, she drew attention to something which ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    7 days ago
  • How long does this last?
    I have a clear memory of every election since 1969 in this plucky little nation of ours. I swear I cannot recall a single one where the question being asked repeatedly in the first week of the new government was: how long do you reckon they’ll last? And that includes all ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • National’s giveaway politics
    We already know that national plans to boost smoking rates to collect more tobacco tax so they can give huge tax-cuts to mega-landlords. But this morning that policy got even more obscene - because it turns out that the tax cut is retrospective: Residential landlords will be able to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • CHRIS TROTTER: Who’s driving the right-wing bus?
    Who’s At The Wheel? The electorate’s message, as aggregated in the polling booths on 14 October, turned out to be a conservative political agenda stronger than anything New Zealand has seen in five decades. In 1975, Bill Rowling was run over by just one bus, with Rob Muldoon at the wheel. In 2023, ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago
  • GRAHAM ADAMS:  Media knives flashing for Luxon’s government
    The fear and loathing among legacy journalists is astonishing Graham Adams writes – No one is going to die wondering how some of the nation’s most influential journalists personally view the new National-led government. It has become abundantly clear within a few days of the coalition agreements ...
    Point of OrderBy gadams1000
    7 days ago
  • Top 10 news links for Wednesday, Nov 29
    TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere for Wednesday November 29, including:The early return of interest deductibility for landlords could see rebates paid on previous taxes and the cost increase to $3 billion from National’s initial estimate of $2.1 billion, CTU Economist Craig Renney estimated here last ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Smokefree Fallout and a High Profile Resignation.
    The day after being sworn in the new cabinet met yesterday, to enjoy their honeymoon phase. You remember, that period after a new government takes power where the country, and the media, are optimistic about them, because they haven’t had a chance to stuff anything about yet.Sadly the nuptials complete ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • As Cabinet revs up, building plans go on hold
    Wellington Council hoardings proclaim its preparations for population growth, but around the country councils are putting things on hold in the absence of clear funding pathways for infrastructure, and despite exploding migrant numbers. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Cabinet meets in earnest today to consider the new Government’s 100-day ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • National takes over infrastructure
    Though New Zealand First may have had ambitions to run the infrastructure portfolios, National would seem to have ended up firmly in control of them.  POLITIK has obtained a private memo to members of Infrastructure NZ yesterday, which shows that the peak organisation for infrastructure sees  National MPs Chris ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago
  • At a glance – Evidence for global warming
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    1 week ago
  • Who’s Driving The Right-Wing Bus?
    Who’s At The Wheel? The electorate’s message, as aggregated in the polling booths on 14 October, turned out to be a conservative political agenda stronger than anything New Zealand has seen in five decades. In 1975, Bill Rowling was run over by just one bus, with Rob Muldoon at the wheel. In ...
    1 week ago

  • PISA results show urgent need to teach the basics
    With 2022 PISA results showing a decline in achievement, Education Minister Erica Stanford is confident that the Coalition Government’s 100-day plan for education will improve outcomes for Kiwi kids.  The 2022 PISA results show a significant decline in the performance of 15-year-old students in maths compared to 2018 and confirms ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago
  • Collins leaves for Pacific defence meeting
    Defence Minister Judith Collins today departed for New Caledonia to attend the 8th annual South Pacific Defence Ministers’ meeting (SPDMM). “This meeting is an excellent opportunity to meet face-to-face with my Pacific counterparts to discuss regional security matters and to demonstrate our ongoing commitment to the Pacific,” Judith Collins says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Working for Families gets cost of living boost
    Putting more money in the pockets of hard-working families is a priority of this Coalition Government, starting with an increase to Working for Families, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says. “We are starting our 100-day plan with a laser focus on bringing down the cost of living, because that is what ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme scrapped
    The Government has axed the $16 billion Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme championed by the previous government, Energy Minister Simeon Brown says. “This hugely wasteful project was pouring money down the drain at a time when we need to be reining in spending and focussing on rebuilding the economy and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • NZ welcomes further pause in fighting in Gaza
    New Zealand welcomes the further one-day extension of the pause in fighting, which will allow the delivery of more urgently-needed humanitarian aid into Gaza and the release of more hostages, Foreign Minister Winston Peters said. “The human cost of the conflict is horrific, and New Zealand wants to see the violence ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Condolences on passing of Henry Kissinger
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters today expressed on behalf of the New Zealand Government his condolences to the family of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who has passed away at the age of 100 at his home in Connecticut. “While opinions on his legacy are varied, Secretary Kissinger was ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Backing our kids to learn the basics
    Every child deserves a world-leading education, and the Coalition Government is making that a priority as part of its 100-day plan. Education Minister Erica Stanford says that will start with banning cellphone use at school and ensuring all primary students spend one hour on reading, writing, and maths each day. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • US Business Summit Speech – Regional stability through trade
    I would like to begin by echoing the Prime Minister’s thanks to the organisers of this Summit, Fran O’Sullivan and the Auckland Business Chamber.  I want to also acknowledge the many leading exporters, sector representatives, diplomats, and other leaders we have joining us in the room. In particular, I would like ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Keynote Address to the United States Business Summit, Auckland
    Good morning. Thank you, Rosemary, for your warm introduction, and to Fran and Simon for this opportunity to make some brief comments about New Zealand’s relationship with the United States.  This is also a chance to acknowledge my colleague, Minister for Trade Todd McClay, Ambassador Tom Udall, Secretary of Foreign ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • India New Zealand Business Council Speech, India as a Strategic Priority
    Good morning, tēnā koutou and namaskar. Many thanks, Michael, for your warm welcome. I would like to acknowledge the work of the India New Zealand Business Council in facilitating today’s event and for the Council’s broader work in supporting a coordinated approach for lifting New Zealand-India relations. I want to also ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Coalition Government unveils 100-day plan
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has laid out the Coalition Government’s plan for its first 100 days from today. “The last few years have been incredibly tough for so many New Zealanders. People have put their trust in National, ACT and NZ First to steer them towards a better, more prosperous ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Further humanitarian support for Gaza, the West Bank and Israel
    The Government is contributing a further $5 million to support the response to urgent humanitarian needs in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, bringing New Zealand’s total contribution to the humanitarian response so far to $10 million. “New Zealand is deeply saddened by the loss of civilian life and the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago

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