Treasury assesses Nats’ economic performance

Written By: - Date published: 10:45 am, May 21st, 2010 - 11 comments
Categories: budget 2010, Economy - Tags:

What does Treasury make of National’s economic plan according to the Budget papers? Here’s the outlook for when National is kicked out of office at the end of 2011:

Unemployment will still stand at 145,000, 5.5%. That’s compared to 98,000, 4%, when they took power.

Over 8% inflation in the next two years. That’ll chew up your savings.

Workers’ share of the economy will have fallen from an already miserable 43.6% to 41.5%. The portion of the pie that workers get a hold of will be smaller and shared among more.

GDP per capita will be lower when National leaves office than when they entered it.

Real wages are set two drop 2% over the next two years.

The tax cut to the rich will, as it always does, spark an importing boom. The money will head overseas and the current account deficit will be back up to $13 billion a year by the start of 2012.

11 comments on “Treasury assesses Nats’ economic performance ”

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  1. Ari 1
    21 May 2010 at 11:02 am

    Clearly we are relying on a rapid succession of natural disasters to “catch up to Australia”. ><

  2. gingercrush 2
    21 May 2010 at 11:24 am

    Pathetic post.

    1. National will be government after 2011.

    2. You forget that unemployment was forecasted to hit 8%. It didn’t. Instead we’re now back at 6%. And before you all scream about seasonally adjusted unemployment etc etc. Labour and the left were quite happy to uphold the same measurement of unemployment therefore you have to stick to it.

    3. Inflation high is one year only. Its pathetic to say 8% inflation over two years. There is a spike in inflation of 5.9% for one year because of the GST hike then inflation is set to return to normal levels.

    4. Growth forecasts of 3%. Not bad are they.

    5. Your last premise is bullshit. We imported shit during the Cullen years.

    • Bright Red 2.1
      21 May 2010 at 11:46 am

      “Growth forecasts of 3%. Not bad are they.”‘

      In the next two September years, growth will average 2.6%. Add in the year of the global recession and National’s average will by 1.0%.

      Labour averaged 3.2%. 3.4% if you don’t include the year with the global recession.

      Whose record is better?

    • Galeandra 2.2
      21 May 2010 at 11:55 am

      Ginga, ‘spike’ my ass!! That line on a graph represents a higher plateau in the costs of personal spending.That price inflation stays as part of consumer costs for evermore. Not to mention the ramifying effects of it as costs compound within the system -costs of production inputs, consumer goods,GST and PAYE etc
      .
      Given the huge stresses within world economies and with regard to the insoluble energy and carbon probelms, this government has just wasted what is likely to be our last opportunity to set more protections in place for the fundemental necessities we all have viz food shelter water health. You people are either thick or callous.

      Captch inability, as in inability to understand how the other three quarters live let alone empathise with them.

    • Adrian 2.3
      21 May 2010 at 2:34 pm

      Are they the same forecasters for unemployment and growth? Which bit of their bullshit do you choose? The inflation will flow through naturally due to wage demands, interest rates, rents and council rates. You really are a boofhead.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 2.4
      21 May 2010 at 2:49 pm

      Oil, food and electricity increases are not going to be one-off. Energy and all that needs it are predicted to spike over the next five years.

  3. jcuknz 3
    21 May 2010 at 11:40 am

    If you are hoping for Labour to become the Government in 2011 I think you are unwise becuase it would be better for Labour to wait another term until the ecconomic conditions have really improved and neccessity doesn’t force them to bring in unpleasant measures. Much of your argument ignores the ecconomic downturn the world is going through as opposed to the rosey days that Labour enjoyed during its nine years.

    • Bright Red 3.1
      21 May 2010 at 11:48 am

      “Much of your argument”

      Umm, aren’t they just quotes from Treasury? And aren’t they all looking forward?

      The recession ended a year ago, kiddo, you can’t keep using it as an excuse for your party’s pathetic performance forever.

      captcha: concepts

      • Lanthanide 3.1.1
        21 May 2010 at 12:15 pm

        Not if you listen to the media. It seems mentions of “the recession” have increased of late, compared to earlier in the year or late last year.

    • Ari 3.2
      21 May 2010 at 12:20 pm

      There is indeed no argument here. It’s just a reporting of Treasury’s forecast for the government’s policies. If you have an issue, take it up with Treasury.

    • uke 3.3
      21 May 2010 at 1:17 pm

      “it would be better for Labour to wait another term”

      There may be far less to govern after another term of Nact, once it begins selling off the public goodies, as has left an open possibility for their putative second term. We will then be ever more governed by private interests whose primary mission statement is: “responsible only to shareholders”.