TVNZ concludes that Luxon’s pants may have been on fire

Written By: - Date published: 2:00 pm, September 21st, 2023 - 39 comments
Categories: chris hipkins, Christopher Luxon, making shit up, spin, you couldn't make this shit up - Tags:

The recent leader’s debate was really frustrating.  Not only did Christopher Luxon get way more time than Chris Hipkins but it felt to me that his presentation on various issues were up to the edge of what is true.

TVNZ has engaged a group of experts to comment on some of what he said and the conclusion is that his pants were on fire.

From TVNZ:

Academics at Auckland University’s Public Policy Institute (PPI) have run their eye over last night’s TVNZ Leaders’ Debate and given their verdict.

They found that Hipkins was right to say inflation is coming down, but partly wrong to claim National tax cuts would worsen inflation.

Meanwhile, Luxon was incorrect to claim National invented the phrase “by Māori, for Māori” but on the mark in saying retail crime had doubled in the last two years. The PPI found Luxon to be the main offender on making false claims in the debate.

And here are the whoppers:

MOSTLY UNTRUE

• Foreign home buyers tax would bring in $750 million (Luxon) – in reality, it is estimated to be about $210 million.

FALSE

• No fruit and veg GST savings will be passed on to customers (Luxon) – Grocery Commissioner will monitor pricing to prevent this.

• Labour didn’t implement the Circuit Breaker initiative (Luxon) – Has been rolled out and is being extended.

• National supports school lunches for all (Luxon) – They support the current policy (targeted lunches) pending a review of costs.

• National invented “By Māori, for Māori” (Luxon) – Used in matauranga Māori by Māori thinkers and leaders such as Mason Durie decades before

• Every single health outcome has gone backwards under Labour (Luxon) – Most health outcomes (eg general mortality, cancer deaths, maternal health) have remained the same or improved.

As a Christian I hope he reflects on the importance of being truthful.

By way of contrast Hipkins’ answers were determined to be either true, mostly true or half true.  The half true statement was that National tax cuts would make inflation worse on the basis that it depends on government spending.  Generally tax cuts would make it worse.  I guess savaging Government spending could have a deflationary effect.

The analysis reinforces the very strong message that you cannot trust National.

39 comments on “TVNZ concludes that Luxon’s pants may have been on fire ”

  1. Cricklewood 1

    They lost me when they decided this was false. 'No fruit and veg GST savings will be passed on to customers' because of the grocery commissioner…who will be effectivly be a toothless tiger.

    Basically destroyed their credibilty with that one, the supermarket duopoly will swallow up any initial savings within 3 months and it will be next to impossible to police given fresh fruit and veges in particular vary quite a lot on seasonality.

    • SPC 1.1

      There is a methodology to pricing (what they pay to others is a cost and what their mark up is, being the variable) before it gets to the retailers adding on of GST.

      What the GC can do is identify any change in the level of their mark-up.

      • Cricklewood 1.1.1

        As far as supermarkets go thats very opaque and almost impossible to calculate with the various clawbacks, promotion fees, spoilage chargebacks etc. I doubt the commisioner would be able to unpick those. Its very possible thwy would pay the supplier more to keep basic margin similar but make changes to the clawbacks which are a seperate transaction.

        • In Vino 1.1.1.1

          I find it hugely ironic that Luxon claimed that supermarkets would fail to pass price reductions on, but later implied that all his nice 'Mum and Dad investors' would be only too keen to pass their tax savings on to tenants in their rental properties.. Tui moment.

          • Cricklewood 1.1.1.1.1

            Yep, both landlords and supermarkets will seek to maximise profit at every opportunity. Anyone thinking something other to that is delusional or lying.

  2. SPC 2

    Under mostly untrue

    Luxon's claim that parents with children would be $250 a fortnight better off.

    Only if there are two parents both working and they are paying a large amount for pre school child care.

    Most couples do not have children under 5, and those that do might have a stay at home parent and home school or use low cost playcentres.

    Working couples get $50 a week ($25 a week each).

    If they qualify, there is $25 extra in WFF tax credit – the same extra under Labour.

    • Christopher Randal 2.1

      Targeting one group over another is unfair and discriminatory. Doesn't the Bill of Rights forbid it?

      • James Simpson 2.1.1

        So targeting those aged over 65 with a weekly super payment is a breach of the Bill of Rights as those under 65 do not get the payment?

        • Descendant Of Smith 2.1.1.1

          It is in relation to benefit rates. The government instead of making them equal (as they once were and removing the youth rate) exempted themselves back in 2000.

          http://www.agediscrimination.info/international-age-discrimination/new-zealand

          Retirement benefits are an exception to the law also.

          • Clive Macann 2.1.1.1.1

            I have always disagreed with Retirement income as a "benefit".
            It, to me, is an entitlement.
            A benefit makes it like something they can take off you and that should not be the case.
            Although Authorities try it all the time.
            When did it actually change to being a "Benefit" as it was never always like that?

            • Descendant Of Smith 2.1.1.1.1.1

              Pfft that is just hypocritical semantics since Muldoon's shift to pat it out of the general account.

              Technically the legislation talks about entitlement in both the case of benefits and superannuation. No difference at all.

              Why do you consider someone paying tax while working has less entitlement to an unemployment benefit, or someone with Down's syndrome to a Supported Living Payment that someone for instance may not have worked at all their entire life and can get New Zealand Superannuation.

              None are relative to what you have paid in tax across your life – unlike the UK.

              Neither benefits not superannuation can be arbitrarily taken off you – you either have entitlement or not. There are laws to uphold.

    • Jim Price 2.2

      So you’re saying my struggling son and his wife, and their child and household will only be $250 a week better off if they vote national? Or they’ll save gst on fruit and veg and $10 a month on prescriptions if they vote labour?

      they’re kid hates broccoli, but seems a fucking irrelevancy given the enormous gulf between a $3 head of broccoli and $125 a week to alleviate some of the pain of interest rates largely brought about by the current governments cavalier approach to the economy.

      but yeah, hug a carrot till it loves you back

      • weka 2.2.1

        where did you get $250/wk from? SPC is saying that most families wouldn't get the $250/fnight.

        Labour are offering more than the GST off fresh food and removing prescription charges. Please stop misrepresenting party policy.

      • SPC 2.2.2

        I note your willingness to promote the mostly untrue statement of Christopher Luxon.

        The $125 a week amount he mentions, includes of $75 a week in child care rebates that few are entitled to. If your grandchild is over 5 nothing, or with the mother FT under 2, again nothing.

        If the grandchild is 2 to 3, then Labour is offering a free child care alternative (extending the 3-5 child care to 2-3 year olds) worth more.

        Labour also offers free PT for those under 12 and half fare age 12-24.

        Under National singles get $25 a week and couples $50 a week otherwise in tax cuts.

        Labour is offering to increase MW to the LW ($1 an hour more each hour – ACT want a freeze and National wants risible small 25-50 cents an hour increases) and this and the FPA industry awards will ensure significant wage increases.

        Half workers would get over $20 more a week each and every year of a 3 year term from these measures – $60 each in higher wages (over $40 after tax).

        Nationals so called extra help is an illusion.

        • PsyclingLeft.Always 2.2.2.1

          Nationals so called extra help is an illusion.

          All part of their smoke and mirror NAct. This one in particular that you have cut through to, needs much more visibility…. as those with ill intent are luring the gullible/vulnerable.

          I'd say shame on them..but, they have none. Labour and the Left need to really state it.

  3. EE 3

    I thought I heard Luxon say his favourite book was "The Inner Mind of Tennis".
    That book doesn't exist.

    Perhaps he meant this article on plant consciousness…
    "The Inner Mind of Plants"
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S026240792201541X

  4. Mike the Lefty 4

    Something else that is false, and is very misleading for voters.

    On the first leader's debate Luxon said very early that National would reduce the cost of living, by spending less. Note he said REDUCE, not make things more affordable or raise everyone's ability to pay for things. He said REDUCE.

    I am something of a financial novice but I would like someone to explain how a government spending less will REDUCE the cost of your basket of groceries at the supermarket, the cost of filling up your car with petrol, or the cost of renting a property.

    The simple answer is that it wont. The only way to reduce the cost of living is to make things cheaper whilst maintaining the same wage rates. National will certainly not reduce or drop GST, will not reduce the petrol excise tax (except the Auckland regional fuel tax) and will not impose a rent or price freeze – and these would be the things that would reduce the cost of living.

    At its very best, reducing government spending by itself might eventually ease inflation a bit, but that would be balanced by the inflationary tax cuts that National is promising at the same time. It should also be noted that the rate of inflation is actually falling now already.

    And it should be remembered that food prices will still rise under National, despite what they imply, and we know that wages will not because their ACT buddies are determined to make sure there are no more rises to the minimum wage. So will we be better off? Yeah right!

    National's advertising and Luxon's on-camera promises are shite, they know it but are banking on getting away with it because we have a media too obsessed about trivia to deal with the biggest issues. It is a pity that the Electoral Commission has no power to prosecute a political party for pre-election lies.

    National are dishonest, pure and simple.

    • SPC 4.1

      Inflation is forecast to hit 4% by the end of this year and 3% by the end of next year.

      Some of the costs that NACT would cause will not be in the figures though.

      Cuts to backroom will include property (maintenance and insurance and cleaning) that will result in the closure of some frontline service centres (time and cost to get to one further away) and or transfer online (time waiting will increase).

      And some agencies will propose an increase to service charges as an alternative to making cuts etc.

  5. Dennis Frank 5

    As a Christian I hope he reflects on the importance of being truthful.

    As a Gaian, I admire your optimism. As a neolib, I suspect his values are driven by the profitability of enthusiatically promoting alternative impressions to sell policies.

    I mean, really, how many capitalists get rich by promoting truth?? Has anyone ever counted them? Thought not. I suspect everyone assumes it'd be a unicorn hunt.

  6. bwaghorn 6

    Atleast the press are doing their jobs these days ,it's a shame they never fact checked slippery key.

    • tc 6.1

      Copy pasting press releases into news items and allowing the likes of Seymour and luxon to use slogans without being questioned on them isn't journalism.

      We see the odd bit of digging in from the likes of mutch etc but mostly they let them off the hook.

  7. Rodel 7

    We are entering the new Trump era. Truth doesn't count.

  8. Nic the NZer 8

    I think the experts are probably more right than wrong about tax cuts impacts on inflation. Of course the standard political discourse is to claim that any increase in the budget deficit is inflationary and any decrease deflationary. This should be a very suspicious claim when dealing with internationally imported inflation, based on a combination of real supply side impacts and profiteering as a response by many businesses.

    The underlying issue is that politically we debate how to deal with inflation based on a completely false narrative. The economy the right are projecting politically (with plenty of buy in from the political left), would be an ideal one for a country emerging from a serious house price problem. Were it the case that wages were rapidly rising for most then enduring a little inflation while having house prices flat line would be just perfect.

    This is absolutely not what has happened where inflation was clearly triggered from overseas and has run ahead of any domestic wage increases.

    I completely fail to understand the political strategy of our left political parties here because, when you buy into this you severely constrain your abilities to improve the economy as it becomes all about budget constraints and hoping the private sector is presently investing to make those unimportant. In many cases this buy in is directly undermining these parties abilities to implement the policies they want to, such as investment towards a sustainable economy (Green) or moves towards a more fair and equal economy (Labour).

  9. tsmithfield 9

    Yes, political parties and politicians should always be truthful.

    • Roy Cartland 9.1

      Point taken, but those are pretty lame examples, you must admit.

      • tsmithfield 9.1.1

        Depends on how it is looked at I guess. Shaw having to correct his Linkedin profile to clarify that he didn't complete his BA is a bit of a weird one. I would have thought that would have been fairly easy to get right.

        And, even more of a mystery to me is how he managed to do an MSc without a Batchelor's degree which is normally a prerequisite. When I did my MA, I had to have a BA. Not only that, my grades had to be good to get through. I think a B+ average was the cut off.

        I know there is some conspiracy stuff flying around about this at the moment. But, I think there is likely an innocent explanation.

        • Roy Cartland 9.1.1.1

          I'd agree with that. God knows what my LinkedIn says at the moment! It's sloppy, but James is not so idiotic as to try to trick anyone, why bother?

          The others are technicalities, as are some of Luxon's above.

          • Belladonna 9.1.1.1.1

            I wouldn't regard Andrew Little's claim that National and ACT would sell off all the schools and sack the teachers – as a technicality.

            There is nothing in any of the education policies for those parties – that I've found – which could be interpreted in this way.

            This is not the first hard campaign that Little has been involved in (I can attribute some of the others, like Halbert, to the pressure of being under fire for the first time) – but Little should indeed know better.

            More to the point, it's stupidly short-sighted. For a lie to be effective in politics, it has to be believable.

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    Let’s say it’s 1984,and there's a dreary little nation at the bottom of the Pacific whose name rhymes with New Zealand,and they've just had an election.Jesus, Mary, and Joseph, will you look at the state of these books we’ve opened,cries the incoming government, will you look at all this mountain ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Climate Change: Stopping oil
    National is promising to bring back offshore oil and gas drilling. Naturally, the Greens have organised a petition campaign to try and stop them. You should sign it - every little bit helps, and as the struggle over mining conservation land showed, even National can be deterred if enough people ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Don’t accept Human Rights Commission reading of data on Treaty partnership – read the survey fin...
    Wellington is braced for a “massive impact’ from the new government’s cutting public service jobs, The Post somewhat grimly reported today. Expectations of an economic and social jolt are based on the National-Act coalition agreement to cut public service numbers in each government agency in a cost-trimming exercise  “informed by” head ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • The stupidest of stupid reasons
    One of the threats in the National - ACT - NZ First coalition agreements was to extend the term of Parliament to four years, reducing our opportunities to throw a bad government out. The justification? Apparently, the government thinks "elections are expensive". This is the stupidest of stupid reasons for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • A website bereft of buzz
    Buzz from the Beehive The new government was being  sworn in, at time of writing , and when Point of Order checked the Beehive website for the latest ministerial statements and re-visit some of the old ones we drew a blank. We found ….  Nowt. Nothing. Zilch. Not a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • MICHAEL BASSETT: A new Ministry – at last
    Michael Bassett writes – Like most people, I was getting heartily sick of all the time being wasted over the coalition negotiations. During the first three weeks Winston grinned like a Cheshire cat, certain he’d be needed; Chris Luxon wasted time in lifting the phone to Winston ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Luxon's Breakfast.
    The Prime Minister elect had his silver fern badge on. He wore it to remind viewers he was supporting New Zealand, that was his team. Despite the fact it made him look like a concierge, or a welcomer in a Koru lounge. Anna Burns-Francis, the Breakfast presenter, asked if he ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • LINDSAY MITCHELL:  Oranga Tamariki faces major upheaval under coalition agreement
     Lindsay Mitchell writes – A hugely significant gain for ACT is somewhat camouflaged by legislative jargon. Under the heading ‘Oranga Tamariki’ ACT’s coalition agreement contains the following item:   Remove Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 According to Oranga Tamariki:     “Section ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • BRIAN EASTON:  Peters as Minister
    A previous column looked at Winston Peters biographically. This one takes a closer look at his record as a minister, especially his policy record. Brian Easton writes – 1990-1991: Minister of Māori Affairs. Few remember Ka Awatea as a major document on the future of Māori policy; there is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Cathrine Dyer's guide to watching COP 28 from the bottom of a warming planet
    Is COP28 largely smoke and mirrors and a plan so cunning, you could pin a tail on it and call it a weasel? Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: COP28 kicks off on November 30 and up for negotiation are issues like the role of fossil fuels in the energy transition, contributions to ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Monday, Nov 27
    PM Elect Christopher Luxon was challenged this morning on whether he would sack Adrian Orr and Andrew Coster.TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am on Monday November 27, including:Signs councils are putting planning and capital spending on hold, given a lack of clear guidance ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the new government’s policies of yesteryear
    This column expands on a Werewolf column published by Scoop on Friday Routinely, Winston Peters is described as the kingmaker who gets to decide when the centre right or the centre-left has a turn at running this country. He also plays a less heralded but equally important role as the ...
    4 days ago
  • The New Government’s Agreements
    Last Friday, almost six weeks after election day, National finally came to an agreement with ACT and NZ First to form a government. They also released the agreements between each party and looking through them, here are the things I thought were the most interesting (and often concerning) from the. ...
    4 days ago
  • How many smokers will die to fund the tax cuts?
    Maori and Pasifika smoking rates are already over twice the ‘all adult’ rate. Now the revenue that generates will be used to fund National’s tax cuts. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The devil is always in the detail and it emerged over the weekend from the guts of the policy agreements National ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • How the culture will change in the Beehive
    Perhaps the biggest change that will come to the Beehive as the new government settles in will be a fundamental culture change. The era of endless consultation will be over. This looks like a government that knows what it wants to do, and that means it knows what outcomes ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • No More Winnie Blues.
    So what do you think of the coalition’s decision to cancel Smokefree measures intended to stop young people, including an over representation of Māori, from taking up smoking? Enabling them to use the tax revenue to give other people a tax cut?David Cormack summed it up well:It seems not only ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #47
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Nov 19, 2023 thru Sat, Nov 25, 2023.  Story of the Week World stands on frontline of disaster at Cop28, says UN climate chief  Exclusive: Simon Stiell says leaders must ‘stop ...
    5 days ago
  • Some of it is mad, some of it is bad and some of it is clearly the work of people who are dangerous ...
    On announcement morning my mate texted:Typical of this cut-price, fake-deal government to announce itself on Black Friday.What a deal. We lose Kim Hill, we gain an empty, jargonising prime minister, a belligerent conspiracist, and a heartless Ayn Rand fanboy. One door closes, another gets slammed repeatedly in your face.It seems pretty ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • “Revolution” is the threat as the Māori Party smarts at coalition government’s Treaty directi...
    Buzz from the Beehive Having found no fresh announcements on the government’s official website, Point of Order turned today to Scoop’s Latest Parliament Headlines  for its buzz. This provided us with evidence that the Māori Party has been soured by the the coalition agreement announced yesterday by the new PM. “Soured” ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • The Good, the Bad, and the even Worse.
    Yesterday the trio that will lead our country unveiled their vision for New Zealand.Seymour looking surprisingly statesmanlike, refusing to rise to barbs about his previous comments on Winston Peters. Almost as if they had just been slapstick for the crowd.Winston was mostly focussed on settling scores with the media, making ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • When it Comes to Palestine – Free Speech is Under Threat
    Hi,Thanks for getting amongst Mister Organ on digital — thanks to you, we hit the #1 doc spot on iTunes this week. This response goes a long way to helping us break even.I feel good about that. Other things — not so much.New Zealand finally has a new government, and ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • Thank you Captain Luxon. Was that a landing, or were we shot down?
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Also in More Than A FeildingFriday The unboxing And so this is Friday and what have we gone and done to ourselves?In the same way that a Christmas present can look lovely under the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Cans of Worms.
    “And there’ll be no shortage of ‘events’ to test Luxon’s political skills. David Seymour wants a referendum on the Treaty. Winston wants a Royal Commission of Inquiry into Labour’s handling of the Covid crisis. Talk about cans of worms!”LAURIE AND LES were very fond of their local. It was nothing ...
    6 days ago
  • Disinformation campaigns are undermining democracy. Here’s how we can fight back
    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. Misinformation is debated everywhere and has justifiably sparked concerns. It can polarise the public, reduce health-protective behaviours such as mask wearing and vaccination, and erode trust in science. Much of misinformation is spread not ...
    6 days ago
  • Peters as Minister
    A previous column looked at Winston Peters biographically. This one takes a closer look at his record as a minister, especially his policy record.1990-1991: Minister of Māori Affairs. Few remember Ka Awatea as a major document on the future of Māori policy; there is not even an entry in Wikipedia. ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    7 days ago
  • The New Government: 2023 Edition
    So New Zealand has a brand-spanking new right-wing government. Not just any new government either. A formal majority coalition, of the sort last seen in 1996-1998 (our governmental arrangements for the past quarter of a century have been varying flavours of minority coalition or single-party minority, with great emphasis ...
    7 days ago
  • The unboxing
    And so this is Friday and what have we gone and done to ourselves?In the same way that a Christmas present can look lovely under the tree with its gold ribbon but can turn out to be nothing more than a big box holding a voucher for socks, so it ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • A cruel, vicious, nasty government
    So, after weeks of negotiations, we finally have a government, with a three-party cabinet and a time-sharing deputy PM arrangement. Newsroom's Marc Daalder has put the various coalition documents online, and I've been reading through them. A few things stand out: Luxon doesn't want to do any work, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Hurrah – we have a new government (National, ACT and New Zealand First commit “to deliver for al...
    Buzz from the Beehive Sorry, there has been  no fresh news on the government’s official website since the caretaker trade minister’s press statement about the European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement. But the capital is abuzz with news – and media comment is quickly flowing – after ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago
  • Christopher Luxon – NZ PM #42.
    Nothing says strong and stable like having your government announcement delayed by a day because one of your deputies wants to remind everyone, but mostly you, who wears the trousers. It was all a bit embarrassing yesterday with the parties descending on Wellington before pulling out of proceedings. There are ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Coalition Government details policies & ministers
    Winston Peters will be Deputy PM for the first half of the Coalition Government’s three-year term, with David Seymour being Deputy PM for the second half. Photo montage by Lynn Grieveson for The KākāTL;DR: PM-Elect Christopher Luxon has announced the formation of a joint National-ACT-NZ First coalition Government with a ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • “Old Coat” by Peter, Paul & Mary.
     THERE ARE SOME SONGS that seem to come from a place that is at once in and out of the world. Written by men and women who, for a brief moment, are granted access to that strange, collective compendium of human experience that comes from, and belongs to, all the ...
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Further humanitarian support for Gaza, the West Bank and Israel
    The Government is contributing a further $5 million to support the response to urgent humanitarian needs in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, bringing New Zealand’s total contribution to the humanitarian response so far to $10 million. “New Zealand is deeply saddened by the loss of civilian life and the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

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