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90 Minutes, Extra Time, Then Penalties.

Written By: - Date published: 1:26 pm, July 17th, 2014 - 51 comments
Categories: election 2014, internet mana party, john key - Tags:

The most damning thing about the SIS email exchange regarding Kim Dotcom’s residency application is the hour and half between the digital discussion and the unusual decision to drop their veto.

There are lots of things that can fill an hour and a half; a movie, 9 holes of golf, a game of football. Or, in this case, a phone call or two to confirm that, yes, the Government really do want to let a known criminal and alleged fraudster who was likely to be busted by the Feds any minute settle in NZ.

That’s my belief anyway. Occam’s razor and the public service’s rules of engagement strongly suggest to me that the two spooks checked upstairs, got the nod and swiftly dropped the objection.

The only question left is ‘how far upstairs’?

But this post is about another, related, matter. And that’s the alleged evidence that Key lied about when he first heard of Dotcom. If the PM has lied, then that strengthens Dotcom’s defence against extradition. He can then rightly say he has not had a fair go; that the parties trying to send him to the States to stand trial do not have clean hands. He can argue, convincingly, the whole case was prejudiced and fatally flawed by the actions of the PM, various government agencies and the FBI.

The potential personal gain for Kim Dotcom is obvious. The effect on the election may not be quite as positive.

We’re used to Key lying. Hell, according to the polls, nearly half of us either can’t see it or just downright love it. Lie to me baby!

KDC and his hobby lobby, IMP, have decided that the killer blow will not be delivered until 5 days before the election. This timing seems off to me. Why not do it at the start of the election period?The polls actually open on the 3rd of September, two weeks before the big man’s big day. A significant number of advance voters, who might be influenced by the evidence, will have already done their democratic duty by the time KDC hits the stage at Auckland Town Hall. They can’t change their vote, even if Dotcom provides compelling evidence that might make them wish they could.

I think this extra time is a tactical error that is going to diminish the return on the revelation, even if it’s a doozy.

However, my biggest concern is the penalty the rest of the left will pay if it turns out that Dotcom’s Big Reveal turns out to be a great white on a trampoline. Rather than the triumphalist tone of Chris Trotter’s fantasy,we might be rolling our eyes at the biggest Meh in Kiwi political history.

It worries me greatly that Laila Harre says she does not know what the evidence actually is. Laila’s a clever negotiator, a fierce competitor and not one to rely on a big bluff. But her hands seem tied here. There’s no going back if KDC doesn’t deliver.

If we’ve learned anything from the H-Fee débâcle, it’s that a failure to deliver a knock-out blow leads to a loss on points. In this case, though, the damage is likely to be to the Greens and Labour. Hone might still scrape through in Te Tai Tokerau anyway, as he has considerable personal support to fall back on. Voter disgust is most likely to be focused on the larger parties who risk being tainted by association. By way of an example of this phenomenon, Winston Peters vacantly holding up a sign saying NO did Labour no favours at all in 2008.

Dotcom must deliver. Sooner would be better, but if we must wait, well, it had better be worth it. Or else we all pay the penalty on Election night.

I guess we’d better hope that Gary Lineker’s observation about football also applies to the former Kim Schmitz:

“Twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win.”

 

Te Reo Putake

51 comments on “90 Minutes, Extra Time, Then Penalties.”

  1. mickysavage 1

    Agreed TRP.

    I would also like to have a campaign that concentrated on the many important issues concerning the country and not a who is telling fibs contest between two very wealthy men.

    • Yes but one of those men is the PM and although we all know he’s a bald-faced unapologetic fibber, the country needs a bit more persuading. I don’t know if the timing is off or on but often elections turn very quickly, like others I hope the evidence makes key squirm and blab off – making a mistake because of his vanity and the the tide turns – here’s hoping.

      • AmaKiwi 1.1.1

        Micky, I am sorry to bring you the bad news but many people vote on the candidates’ personalities.

  2. Tracey 2

    With all his lawyers and experts dont we have to assume KDC knows everything you have said and chosen this day. I am not saying he has chosen the day for political reasons, but definitely for strategic reason be it business, personal or political.

    • Te Reo Putake 2.1

      I’m sure he’s personally chosen the day, Tracey. But that in itself is odd.

      Laila Harre, the leader of his political party, has not been entrusted with the details of the disclosure. That alone suggests to me that either he hasn’t got anything of substance or he isn’t using her political experience in a sensible way. I’m sure Laila would have made exactly the point I made, that we have the longest ever early voting period and that leaving the announcement to the last few days risks diminishing the result of the disclosure.

      For IMP, every percentage of a percentage counts, so why waste any opportunity to gain votes?

      • Tracey 2.1.1

        That is why i tend toward a legal strategy that has a political impact not a purely political one. He hasnt told the leader of IMP ergo it is a dotcom personal/legal thing not a party thing.

        By assuming it is about politics is what has got you confused, in this i suspect politics comes behind legal and business.

      • Anne 2.1.2

        I’m sure Laila would have made exactly the point I made, that we have the longest ever early voting period and that leaving the announcement to the last few days risks diminishing the result of the disclosure.

        My concern too. Dotcom is new to this country. He does not have sufficient experience of our political scene or the psyche of the average Kiwi to be able to make an informed judgement on the right time to release the bombshell. If he is insisting on making these decisions without input from someone like Laila Harre then he is making a big mistake.

        Btw, How come I knew it was TRP who wrote the post before getting to the bottom?

        • ghostwhowalksnz 2.1.2.1

          hes relying on the polls having an inbuilt bias that will be revealed on election day as ‘National poll drop’. Previously they have looked to a reason , any reason for the polls giving National a higher vote than the voters do. Expect to read ‘Dotcom causes National to drop 6-8% on election’ type headlines.

        • Te Reo Putake 2.1.2.2

          Cheers, Anne. How come you knew it was me? Was it the footy related title? Or perhaps I just have a distinctive writing voice (of reason?). I hope to write a few more posts over the next couple of months. And I really do encourage others to give it a go. LP is very helpful and encouraging.

          Re: Laila, I simply don’t get why she hasn’t been told. She must have asked, because she is way too experienced to go into battle unarmed. If she has asked, and been refused the information, then that is a significant trust issue and a real belittling of the Internet party itself.

          Whatever the situation, the risk is that the left’s campaign to win election 2014 is going to be hijacked by a person whose politics, as recently as 3 years ago, were libertarian and currently still appear to be entirely based around what’s best for Kim Dotcom.

          I reckon Laila is quietly fuming. I think we should be too.

          • Tracey 2.1.2.2.1

            i think it shows she is not a puppet with his hand up her arse. IF this is a legal/personal/business strategy, briefing her would feed the puppet meme.

            I cant get my head around the various cases so dont know how it works with those… Do you know of a timeline for the cases?

          • Anne 2.1.2.2.2

            How come you knew it was me?

            Style of the prose.

            Hell, according to the polls, nearly half of us either can’t see it or just downright love it. Lie to me baby!

            … if it turns out that Dotcom’s Big Reveal turns out to be a great white on a trampoline.

            Pure TRP

    • AmaKiwi 2.2

      If extradited, Kim Dotcom may spend the rest of his productive life in US federal prison.

      For him, that is the ONLY consideration. How to stay out of jail.

  3. philj 3

    xox
    Talking footy. A Sean Fitzpatrick is on Acts party list (16).Is this the ex AB?

  4. Ross 4

    A significant number of advance voters, who might be influenced by the evidence, will have already done their democratic duty by the time KDC hits the stage at Auckland Town Hall.

    How many voters will be voting early? About 10% of votes cast at the last election were special votes. But there were only minor changes to the allocation of seats as per election night. I’m not sure that an early disclosure by KDC would have a major effect on the election outcome. Indeed were he to release his evidence now, it could be fish and chip paper by next week.

    • Tracey 4.1

      I have also asked in another thread why so many would be voting early?

      • Tiger Mountain 4.1.1

        As part of the NZCTU “Get out and Vote” campaign http://www.getoutandvote.org.nz polling places (including mobile) may be set up as allowed by the Electoral Commission in places and areas where there are high concentrations of workers and or union members and other potential voters rather than just Librarys or council buildings say.

        Whether this works remains to be seen, training sessions are being conducted from this week, but it is well worth using union delegates networks and convenient times to help motivate people to vote.

        Employers are also required to give adequate paid time off for employees to vote to under S162 of the Act.
        http://www.legislation.govt.nz/act/public/1993/0087/latest/DLM309807.html

        • Tracey 4.1.1.1

          Isnt that for election day though, not for the previous two weeks?

          • Te Reo Putake 4.1.1.1.1

            No, there will be a small number of booths open in all electorates from the 3rd of September. I’m trying to track down some more specific info on what’s open where, but my guess it’ll be council offices, libraries or similar.

            http://www.elections.org.nz/voting/when-you-cant-get-there-day

            • Tiger Mountain 4.1.1.1.1.1

              One of the changes is that you can just vote early, you do not need a reason like being away from your registered electorate on the day etc. as previously.

          • Kiwiri 4.1.1.1.2

            In that getoutandvote.org.nz website, there is this which, by stating the 3 September date, may perhaps be construed as suggesting the option to vote early:

            “Voting in this election will start on 3 September and finish on 20 September. We’ll make sure that all our Pledged Voters know where and when their local polling booths are open and we’ll answer any questions Voters have.”

            And I recall Adam Bennett’s piece (“Advance Voting Worth Fighting For”) saying:

            “Election day may be September 20 but parties across the political spectrum are gearing up for a fierce battle during the two weeks before that over what is expected to be a record advance voter turnout. …

            “The tally is expected to increase again this year with parties and the union-led Get Out and Vote campaign planning big promotional pushes to raise awareness of the option [of advance voting].”

            http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11285735

      • Anne 4.1.2

        Parents who spend Saturday running around after their sports playing kids will often vote prior to election day. Others plan to be out of the electorate on the Saturday and yet others will be out of the country. You don’t need a reason anymore. Just turn up to the early voting polling booth. Every electorate will have at least one – usually a Council Office or local Post Office – something like that.

      • Herodotus 4.1.3

        https://www.med.govt.nz/about-us/pdf-library/tourism-publications/Outbound%20Travel%20by%20New%20Zealand%20Residents%20Report%20-225KB%20PDF.pdf
        In 2008 1,965m kiwis travelled overseas 5,400/day. I know this includes all ages. 1.3m p.a. travel for a period of 8 days or more. As one of these this year I will be seeking a early opener !!!
        Perhaps these are a large part of the forgotten non voters from last election ?

  5. Tiger Mountain 5

    Anyone not an IMP insider or ultimately inside Dotcom’s head, is operating on guesswork as to what the 15 Sept. might mean but some things are known.

    • Dotcom and family have been to unpleasantness and back and he is still fronting, he has personally stared Key down in public and is not going to let this one go. The yanks, FBI and MPAA play tough and he knows it.
    • Someone other than Tory spinners is in control of part of the narrative now. They won’t like it and it is a useful pressure point.
    • K Ryan on RNZ today, said Kim has moved through NZ like a “wrecking ball” her term, and he has certainly had an impact on politics, surveillance agencies and even legislation. Banksie and ACT won’t forget him in a hurry either. He has delivered on his utterances so far.
    • The IMP roadshow had a full hall of several hundreds at Kaitaia, good, but during the storm aftermath excellent, the turnout at Kelston this Sun 20th at 2pm will be interesting too. Meetings like these tend to get “Yes we can” spirit rippling out as Winston knows.
    • How can expectations generated be met? Probably can’t as TRP outlines. Proof of a lying Key is one thing, Torys will sadistically vote for him anyway. But for others, enough might be enough.

    So my take is no more knowledgeable than anyone elses, I just think the Dotcom effect will be more positive to a change of government than negative. The effect will only be tiny in votes but an important tiny in a close race.

    • Chooky 5.1

      +100…i dont see a problem in Dotcom making Key and everyone else wait and the impact will be greater just before the Election if it really is a fireworks banger …and I would like to think it is! ( Dotcom is good at running a party as well as promoting a political party)

      …if it is a little fizzer then people will be preoccupied with more important things like student fees for tertiary education and housing and retirement age and beneficiary support and the tv debates between Cunliffe and Key… and the Greens and Winnie /NZF and Mana/Int fronting up against National on tv

      ….i am very optimistic about Int/Mana’s contribution to this Election for the Left win…they have some very good policies

  6. tinfoilhat 6

    If we’re relying on KDC to somehow win the election for the left we really are up the creek without a paddle.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 6.1

      Ask John Banks how his denial turned out.

      • tinfoilhat 6.1.1

        I don’t see how John Banks is even remotely relevant to my comment.

        I’m glad Banks is no longer part of the NZ political scene but in my opinion KDC is a charlatan and will end up doing more harm to the broad ambitions of the left in NZ and Laila Harre’s agenda with Kim has more to do with her perceived slight by the Greens than anything else.

  7. Treetop 7

    “When the President does it, that means it’s not illegal,” – President Richard Nixon, in a 1977 interview with David Frost

    Voters quickly forget what a man says.” – President Richard Nixon

    http://politicalhumor.about.com/od/Funny-Presidential-Quotes/a/Richard-Nixon-Quotes.htm

    A person would have to be in a coma for them to believe that Key did not know of Dotcom until days before the January 2012 raid. I have tried to make it simple by just saying that Key alleges he did not know of Dotcom until shortly before the raid. Key is being protected and probably laughed about behind his back.

    Some voters are not bothered about voting for a liar so it will not matter to them when Dotcom makes his move and what his evidence is.

    The question I have is: When Key goes are his personal files/conversations held with the GCSB and the SIS destroyed?

    Key having knowledge of Dotcom would have been made verbally.

    The fools in Hollywood have gone about Dotcom the wrong way, it will cost them money, there will be more Dotcoms to shutdown.

  8. Gruntie 8

    Tinfoil hat is on the right track – if the left are pinning their hope on KDC dropping the H-Bomb on Key Inc. 5 days from the Big Day Out we are fucked – while in my dreams I’d love to see KDC land a KO punch on JK, it’s looking like a mirage.

  9. Gosman 9

    The decision to extradite him or not is before the courts. Do you think extradition decisions should be made at a political level instead?

    • Te Reo Putake 9.1

      Who you talking to, Gossie? I believe the court case has been delayed again, till way after the election. As for political involvement in such decisions, are you comfortable with the political interference that the SIS guys allege forced them to abandon their objection to Dotcom’s residency application?

      • Gosman 9.1.1

        Of course not. If there is evidence of political interference from a particular politician or politician it should be made public and those resposible should suffer the consequences.

        As for who my question was addressed to, it was an open question to whoever supports the general thrust of this posting in relation to a political decision to stop his extradition.

  10. Bob 10

    “He can argue, convincingly, the whole case was prejudiced and fatally flawed by the actions of the PM, various government agencies and the FBI”
    This is the thing that doesn’t add up TRP, Dotcom has gone out and put a bounty on anyone that is able to help successfully fight his extradition. If he really did have a clear smoking gun as he claims, he would have simply played this card and his extradition defense may have already been concluded!
    I think he has overplayed his hand here and it isn’t going to be a pretty end for him, this could be the catalyst for the media to turn on him and therefore a good chance the public will also turn on him.
    The fact Cunliffe hasn’t ruled out offering a Ministerial post to the Internet party yet may bite him also.

    • Tracey 10.1

      He claims he can prove the prime minister lied. Everything else about bombshells and smoking guns related to elections or whatever are media and blogger words, not Dotcom’s.

      Anyone who has been to court knows that only a fool relies on one piece of evidence, especially when the defendant has money to offer money for info.

      Dotcom made a huge donation to IP? didnt make himself leader and doesnt hide he is fighting his extradiction. ?. Colin Craig is getting huge donors, including himself and he is self proclaimed leader. You think he isnt peddling a particular barrow which gives him some personal gain, in whatever form?

      Mr Liu and Mr Shi paid decent money to National and have, on the face of it seen good returns.

      We ought to be equal opportunity haters striving, by voting, for those whose behaviours we can explain to our children and have them emulate it with our blessing.

  11. Grantoc 11

    A good post.

    Dotcom’s maneuvering over whether or not he’s got something on John Key reveals the InterNet Party for what it has always been, a vehicle designed to benefit Dotcom and his needs, and not New Zealand and its needs.

    The deliberate effort to create drama around a ‘bombshell’ announcement a few days out from the election is absolutely about Dotcom, and absolutely nothing to do with any set of policies designed to benefit New Zealanders.

    Laila Harre has been set up to give the party a semblance of political credibility. But she is no where to be seen in this drama. She is being sidelined by Dotocom’s ego and personal needs. I would hope, for the sake of her own integrity that she sees things for what they are and resign from the Internet Party.

    • Treetop 11.1

      Mark Sainsbury said on Radio Live this morning that Dotcom saw Holmes before Holmes died. Holmes told Sainsbury that Dotcom has a big secret (two weeks before Holmes died), but did not say what it was..

      Is Dotcom giving Key until 15 September to stop the extradition?

      What I really do not like is that Hollywood has the problem with Dotcom and Key has aided them by over stepping the mark to deliver Dotcom to Hollywood. Another way to put this is that a PM assists a super power without knowing what the case is about regarding a man who he does not know of and is granted residency and then the PM uses covert means which he is in charge of to ruin the man.

      One minute Dotcom is granted residency and then he is being extradited to the USA.

      Extreme political interference against a single individual would break just about anyone. Dotcom is being treated like a political prisioner. I think that Dotcom would be eligible for refugee status based on how the NZ Government have treated him because he would fit the criteria that the NZ Government use.

      Gosman@ 9. I thought that the decision to extradite was made at a political level.

      • Treetop 11.1.1

        From day 1 Key has not taken any responsibility for the GCSB, the Police or the SIS for illegally spying on NZ residents/citizens. Saying sorry is not taking responsibility.

      • Tracey 11.1.2

        The crown could withdraw its application and I suppose on some level he could influence crown law, but i cant see this govt not letting the case run its course which, with appeals will be years.

      • Anne 11.1.3

        Another way to put this is that a PM assists a super power without knowing what the case is about regarding a man who he does not know of and is granted residency and then the PM uses covert means which he is in charge of to ruin the man.

        Interesting hypothesis Treetop. If your analysis is correct then it would mean Key – to put it bluntly – ballsed up. Then he used what means available to him to destroy Dotcom’s credibility in order to save his own credibility. Something Key would be more than capable of doing.

    • Tracey 11.2

      Dotcom hasnt called it a bombshell you have. Saying it will be revealled on 15 September and that he didnt make the announcement as IP just makes you look silly.

      • Te Reo Putake 11.2.1

        I’m not so sure that KDC made the announcement on behalf of the Internet Party, Tracey. His actual words were:

        “On September 15, I’m doing a Town Hall event in Auckland and I invite everyone to come there because that is going to be the day when I’m going to reveal my evidence…..my evidence around the political interference and my evidence that John Key lied,”.

        Three “my’s”, two “I’m’s” and an “I”. No mention of the IP at all. Now, English is not his first language, so it could be that he has personalised the announcement without understanding the implication that it excludes the IP. But Laila Harre, the leader of the IP, literally does not know what the evidence is. That’s a practical, and almost disrespectful, exclusion of the party.

        I’ve tried to find the details of the actual Town Hall booking, without success. When it finally pops up on the calendar, I’m picking it’ll be a Dotcom gig, not an IP event.

        • marty mars 11.2.1.1

          He can’t win – if it had been a ‘Party’ announcement then people would say look he IS the Party, why no separation, no arms length. It seems to me to be the opposite of disrespectful.

          • Te Reo Putake 11.2.1.1.1

            Well, Marty, he actually is the party. It’s not separate from him in any meaningful way and his failure to tell the nominal party leader of the nature of the evidence he is going to present kinda shows that. Laila’s just a hired hand on a need to know basis. And she really does need to know.

            Just imagine you were in her position. You’re the leader of the party, but you’re not privy to the details of the single biggest event in the party’s brief history. The party’s success or failure depends to a large extent on the announcement, but, you, the party leader, aren’t entrusted with the facts. Marty, at what point would you say, ‘fuck this, I’m the leader, I want to know what’s going on’?

            • marty mars 11.2.1.1.1.1

              I think you’re making a bit more of it than it is. The episode to date shows an example of separation between them all. Whatever is dropped by KDC is designed to damage the liar PM. You’ve seen this political separation and deniablity and all the rest of it enough to know it makes sense to do it that way – especially when it involves taking on the big man up top.

              • Colonial Viper

                Keeping the Town Hall a KDC event with IMP commenting only on issues relevant to policy (GCSB bill, copyright etc.) is the way to go IMO.

                The real trick is who they have decided to have on stage with KDC. It’s a big stage and he can’t be alone up there.

      • Treetop 11.2.2

        I did not use the term bombshell, I said a big secret.

        Thanks for 11.1.2

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    2 weeks ago
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    GreensBy Kevin Hague MP
    2 weeks ago
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    GreensBy Russel Norman MP
    2 weeks ago
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    2 weeks ago
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    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    2 weeks ago
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    GreensBy Kennedy Graham MP
    2 weeks ago
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    GreensBy Gareth Hughes MP
    2 weeks ago
  • NZ should formally recognise Palestine
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    GreensBy Kennedy Graham MP
    2 weeks ago

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