Daily review 01/08/2022

27 comments on “Daily review 01/08/2022 ”

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1. Poission 1

   1 August 2022 at 6:22 pm

   August ,and Arbitrage will see Australia accepting some grim truths for its future.

   As of today, AGL will slug its NSW customers with an 18 per cent price hike. That's just the start. From Queensland through to South Australia, electricity prices are headed to the moon.

   There's no end in sight. Energy retailers will have little option but to continue pushing through ever greater price hikes in a bid to cover their costs.

   That, in turn, will continue to fuel inflation, possibly forcing the Reserve Bank to hike interest rates beyond what is necessary, rendering large parts of our industrial base unviable and causing a collapse in household spending.

   https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-01/what-the-government-should-do-to-rein-in-your-soaring-power-bill/101287010

   Last year, we briefly became the world's biggest exporter, shipping just under $50 billion worth of LNG to offshore buyers.

   Most of it went to China. It bought 31.6 million tonnes, with Japan — traditionally the biggest market — coming in second at 27.3 million tonnes.

   The east coast suppliers send more than 70 per cent of their output to China.

   There is also a significant amount going to Europe ( China purchasing is very low due to cost) to meet the failures of the ESG common market, allowing for the ultimate arbitrage transactions since the Spanish south american fleets (each shipment being the value of the LNG carrier) Japan also has local investments in WA ,and is looking for top ups on spot market (and deep pockets) which Bangladesh does not have (asking for an IMF bailout due to limited FX)

   https://twitter.com/MegaWattXinfo/status/1553358059895914497
   • pat 1.1

     1 August 2022 at 6:36 pm

     A bidding war
     • Poission 1.1.1

       1 August 2022 at 6:44 pm

       Australia will become a very expensive place to live and work.There is a significant housing problem ( rental shortages) despite and exodus from the capital cities and Australia overall,there are significant backlogs with healthcare,a large rise in Covid cases and hospital admissions.Large interest rate increases to come,I wonder if the so called brain drain and exodus will happen from NZ.

       There is even a worse problem now unfolding in Australia.

       https://twitter.com/BloombergAU/status/1553969560252030978?cxt=HHwWhIC96Z3F55ArAAAA
       • pat 1.1.1.1

         1 August 2022 at 7:01 pm

         Oh dear…if anything would spark a revolution in Oz (or NZ) its the availability of beer.
   • Ad 1.2

     1 August 2022 at 7:48 pm

     Is not the net effect that Europe will go through this year and then become the most sustainable developed-nation region on earth?

     It's pay up for energy or figure some other way to live with less.

     Surely we are watching in Europe's real time what New Zealand and Japan and Korea are all going to have to go through as well.
     • pat 1.2.1

       1 August 2022 at 7:52 pm

       What the entire globe will have to address…some sooner than others.
     • Poission 1.2.2

       1 August 2022 at 8:16 pm

       Europe will struggle to attract outside investment,one of the reasons being its constraints on energy, 9 and subsequent recession) the other constraints are the sophistic specifications and rules based system (usually unrelated to the systems methodology or outcomes) Remembering that Europe is becoming a small backwater in terms of stasis.

       One way to remove constraints is to say its too complex,and irrelevant to the present crisis,or in other words put it the filing cabinet for review sometime in the distant future.

       https://biz.crast.net/eu-puts-esg-rulebook-chief-planck-on-hold-amid-infighting/

       Both Japan,and Korea are structually different,Japan being a persistent low inflation,low cost (due to innovation) high quality manufacturer.Korea similar.

       Both are reinvesting in their nuclear fleets,Both the Japanese government (and public opinion) are committed to reactivating 9 sites in the next year.Korea is also investing into Hyundai nuclear fleet.

       Here apart from low cost coal our electricity market is somewhat insulated from global stress (apart from investors wanting larger margins) liquid fuels we have exposure but demand destruction sees some elasticity in prices and substitution.
2. Robert Guyton 2

   1 August 2022 at 6:56 pm

   James Shaw

   With our politics, it’s amazing we’ve got this far on climate

   "But one person was the parliamentary leader who made them possible – James Shaw, climate minister and Green Party member. Given his couple of decades working on climate in NGOs and business here and abroad before becoming a List MP in 2014, he knows more about the enormous subject than any other parliamentarian.

   Far more importantly, he has had the prodigious political patience and skill to build near-universal support in Parliament for those foundation stones of our climate response. Nobody else in Parliament comes close to his deep knowledge, commitment, or powers of political persuasion."

   https://www.newsroom.co.nz/with-our-politics-its-amazing-weve-got-this-far-on-climate
   • Ad 2.1

     1 August 2022 at 7:51 pm

     Yes I've said the same thing for the last fortnight.

     Would be just great if the Greens caucus (other than Sage) had the courage to come out and support James as well.

     The entire 25% protest had no candidate, no policy platform, no use in running the contesting process without that, in fact nothing except a will to really fuck up the annual conference which is the only successful thing they did.
     • pat 2.1.1

       1 August 2022 at 7:57 pm

       not to mention make the party look dysfunctional.
     • Robert Guyton 2.1.2

       1 August 2022 at 8:15 pm

       Your views of the actions and motivations of the "25%" are wrong, imo, though I can easily see why you'd arrive at them. The Greens are not bau, process-wise and they attract a far more diverse support than any other significant party. Being attractive to those who can't find a home with other parties means the management of necessary processes becomes more challenging. I think this flush of expression has been handled well and has passed leaving only a minor dent. I don't expect those who have already decried the "morons" to change their view as a result of reading my opinion.
       • Ad 2.1.2.1

         1 August 2022 at 9:42 pm

         The Greens do not exist in a vacuum. I would be surprised at any claims to diversity of support given which 13 meshblocks of 3 electorates they get 75% of their vote from.

         The Greens are subject to the same media and the same voting public as anyone else.

         They have less than 12 months to decide if they are ready to be in government, or if they want to keep talking about their processes. The fate of the next government that depends on that.
     • weka 2.1.3

       1 August 2022 at 9:42 pm

       Would be just great if the Greens caucus (other than Sage) had the courage to come out and support James as well.

       Why?

       The entire 25% protest had no candidate, no policy platform, no use in running the contesting process without that, in fact nothing except a will to really fuck up the annual conference which is the only successful thing they did.

       Only if you think that the only point was to replace Shaw. What if the point was to get the activist agenda progressed in a way not possible with the status quo?

       The main thing they have achieved is to get the party talking about the tension between the activists and the pragmatists in the party. I get that from a conventional political pov it looks chaotic and counter productive, but from a green political pov it's not a bad thing, and has to the potential to make the party stronger. Both sides are revitalised now. I'm looking forward to seeing what comes out of it.
       • Ad 2.1.3.1

         1 August 2022 at 9:44 pm

         What evidence of revitalisation is there, or is intended?
         • weka 2.1.3.1.1

           1 August 2022 at 10:40 pm

           you answer my question first and I'll answer yours.
       • Robert Guyton 2.1.3.2

         1 August 2022 at 10:12 pm

         I agree with that assessment, weka. Curious that it's hard for "others" (not just Ad) to see. I've had many discussions about this and most people can't stretch that far. Seems simple enough to me 🙂
         • weka 2.1.3.2.1

           1 August 2022 at 10:41 pm

           It's quite remarkable the Greens are in parliament achieving what they do given the sometimes large gulf in world view and process between them and much of the political scene.
3. gsays 3

   1 August 2022 at 7:34 pm

   A sign of how bereft of imagination the ministry is.

   Shortland Street!

   It is part of a package of neo-liberal brain farts that seeks to ease pressure in a system.

   One of the solutions is straight from the Chicago School playbook; subcontract the training of staff to overseas institutions then lure the workers here. Ignoring the fact that the migration tap being left on for a decade or so has contributed to the pressure the system is under.

   One glaringly obvious solution is to support locals into becoming nurses by funding their training and securing services with a bond, akin to old school apprenticeships. Esp Maori and PI, of which we lack sufficient numbers of.

   Funny how building trade apprenticeships can be funded but nursing can't. Faint whiff of misogyny?

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/129439230/health-minister-andrew-little-announces-plan-to-boost-health-worker-numbers-amid-extreme-pressures
4. Anne 4

   1 August 2022 at 8:03 pm

   Nice:

   https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/international-space-station-crew-record-rare-video-of-a-clear-path-over-new-zealand/62X3M3L2UIAPWFMYKZN2LPGQBE/
5. joe90 5

   1 August 2022 at 8:52 pm

   How it begins.

   https://twitter.com/EnemyInAState/status/1553536762319966208

   https://twitter.com/EnemyInAState/status/1553537851731705873
   • weka 5.1

     1 August 2022 at 10:49 pm

     It's hard to comprehend how stupid humans are at this point when we have the internet at our fingertips to look things up.
     • joe90 5.1.1

       2 August 2022 at 11:55 am

       A week ago I watched video made by a woman tried to get tested and multiple providers turned her away because she didn’t fit the criteria. She was finally tested and confirmed she had monkey pox. She said she an AirBB cleaner and was likely infected on the job.

       https://twitter.com/knotBoots/status/1551545872386760704
       • weka 5.1.1.1

         2 August 2022 at 12:40 pm

         do you think that criteria is from stupidity, or from something structural like a shortage of vaccine or people able to administer it?

         Same with testing, although it's obvious there are issues with the messaging.

         Hard to fathom though given our experience of the past 2 1/2 years.
         • joe90 5.1.1.1.1

           2 August 2022 at 12:50 pm

           It's a re-run of the early days of HIV when homosexual promiscuity was posited as the ultimate cause.
           • weka 5.1.1.1.1.1

             2 August 2022 at 12:54 pm

             but it's not the 80s and we know that MPx isn't a sexually transmitted disease in the conventional sense. We meaning the health authorities.

             I'm guessing it's more the slow moving nature of health departments alongside the prioritising of budgets. If they open testing and vax to everyone, where will it end kind of thing.
             • weka …

               2 August 2022 at 12:54 pm

               it's still stupid, but a different kind of stupid perhaps.
6. joe90 6

   1 August 2022 at 9:12 pm

   An Archduke and we're off.

   https://twitter.com/Flash43191300/status/1553789866550362113

   A dispute over license plates between the Balkan nations of Kosovo and Serbia, from whom Kosovo split 14 years ago, yielded protests and gunfire Sunday night, prompting fears that the violence could escalate as Western countries are focused on the war in Ukraine.

   Amid demonstrators who built barricades, unknown gunmen fired on Kosovo police officers along the restive northern border with Serbia on the eve of a new law requiring ethnic Serbs living in Kosovo to switch from Serbian license plates to Kosovar ones in the next two months. Many Serbs in Kosovo still use Serbian-issued plates, which the government considers illegal.

   Kosovo’s government had also said that beginning Monday, all Serbian ID and passports holders must obtain an extra document to enter Kosovo, just as Kosovars must do to enter to Serbia.

   No one was injured by the gunfire, but in response to the violence, the Kosovo police closed two northern border crossings.

   “The following hours, days and weeks may be challenging and problematic,” Kosovo’s prime minister, Albin Kurti, said in a video released on his social media channels.

   https://archive.ph/3XjAi (nyt)

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