Daily Review 14/07/2017

49 comments on “Daily Review 14/07/2017 ”

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1. james 1

   14 July 2017 at 6:50 pm

   Breaking News on Newshub:

   Labours internal polling leaked.

   And its not good for labour.

   http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/07/labour-s-confidential-polling-leaked.html

   Their own polling has them dropping 8% since May.

   Trending towards the worse election result in a long long time is Little.
   • james 1.1

     14 July 2017 at 6:51 pm

     Also has Winston polling higher than the greens – which might explain a few things of late.
     • amirite 1.1.1

       14 July 2017 at 7:24 pm

       and Nats’s drop to 42% is a good thing, amirite? 😉
       • BM 1.1.1.1

         14 July 2017 at 7:33 pm

         Yes, that means they need pretty much all of NZ First vote to get across the line.
         • McFlock 1.1.1.1.1

           14 July 2017 at 8:18 pm

           You’d better hope the swing voter idea is bs, then – if Labour goes back up to 32 on the back of flipped national voters, not even peters will save you.
       • Ed 1.1.1.2

         14 July 2017 at 8:33 pm

         ‘National is chugging along as usual – currently on 42 percent – then Labour (26 percent), the Greens (13 percent) and New Zealand First (14 percent).’
   • BM 1.2

     14 July 2017 at 6:58 pm

     Interesting, if this continues it won’t be long before it’s Peters calling the shots. Labour will be relegated to being one of the support acts.

     Funny thing is it would probably work out far better for the greens, not being Labours underling they’d probably be able to stitch together a far better deal.
   • mickysavage 1.3

     14 July 2017 at 8:06 pm

     Oh look latest Roy Morgan has Labour at 30.5%.

     Lets concentrate on the worst poll result.

     https://public.tableau.com/profile/roy.morgan.research?publish=yes#!/vizhome/NewZealandPrimaryVote2002-2017/NZVotingIntention
     • Anne 1.3.1

       14 July 2017 at 8:28 pm

       So L+G are 1% higher than N.

       Wonder if this RM poll gets reported in the MSM?
     • James 1.3.2

       14 July 2017 at 8:28 pm

       Is this the roy morgan that a lot on here say isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.
2. ScottGN 2

   14 July 2017 at 7:07 pm

   So Labour, Greens and NZ First (The Opposition Parties) would command 53% in the House if that polling is correct. Where does that leave National?
   • BM 2.1

     14 July 2017 at 7:09 pm

     According to their polling 42% so if correct NZ First is the only option if National want to retain power.

     National/NZ First looking a certainty, to be honest.
     • ScottGN 2.1.1

       14 July 2017 at 7:11 pm

       According to who’s polling? Patrick Gower neglected to tell us where the UMR polling had National?
       • Pete George 2.1.1.1

         14 July 2017 at 7:16 pm

         That was very strange leaving National out. It’s in charts in their online report.

         – National 42% (previous 6 results 43, 43, 42, 44, 42, 43)
         – Labour 26% (previous 6 results 28, 28, 34, 30, 32, 29)
         – NZ First 14% (previous 6 results 12, 12, 9, 9, 9, 11)
         – Greens 13% (previous 6 results 13, 12, 13, 13, 13, 12)
         • ScottGN 2.1.1.1.1

           14 July 2017 at 7:20 pm

           Strange? It was deliberate more like. It would have hardly helped Patrick Gower’s “breaking news” story by pointing out that National was sliding towards getting tipped out of office.
         • Pete George 2.1.1.1.2

           14 July 2017 at 7:26 pm

           The online report was accurate enough saying “National is chugging along as usual – currently on 42 percent” but that’s a low flat line for National, more newsworthy than another poll for Labour at 27%.
           • ScottGN 2.1.1.1.2.1

             14 July 2017 at 7:30 pm

             Except that Gower specifically said that Labour was losing votes to NZ1st. Which isn’t actually the case is it? It’s National that’s losing vote to NZ1st. And that may end up being the story of the election.
             • RedLogix …

               14 July 2017 at 7:38 pm

               You can’t really slag off NZ1; they’re just doing what they always do, harvesting the discontented ‘Trump/Brexit’ vote. People who know they’re being fucked over and in the absence of a better alternative vote reactionary.

               But on these numbers the most likely outcome in this election is a National/NZ1 govt. The worst of all worlds for progressives.

               New Zealand is still in many ways stuck in FPP thinking, the core idea being that the ‘largest party’ should get first crack at forming a govt. I know it’s not how the system is supposed to work, but with National pulling say 42% and NZ1 15% … they will form a govt without doubt.
             • James …

               14 July 2017 at 7:44 pm

               Not according to this poll – National are pretty flat on 42,43,44 for all figures listed.

               Lobour drop waaaaay down to 26 from as high (supposedly) 34 – so yeah the votes come from labour.
           • Skinny 2.1.1.1.2.2

             14 July 2017 at 9:16 pm

             Fake news, rigged polls, a bent system. No one is swallowing or trusting spin doctoring anymore.

             The battle for Whangarei/Northland and indeed the forgotten New Zealand regions is going to be the showdown this election.

             Whangarei’s main theatre less than 2 weeks before polling day. The big guns Peters & Jones, Labour & Greens. Word is National have been invited? They will know they need to front up or Peters will add Whangarei and drive National completely out of his Kingdom of the North.

             Probably nail home the Kingmaker position in the process with the noise Gower and the rest of the media will make. Creating quite a buzz around town, stoked the Mrs & I got prime seats, locals are saying this is going to be the biggest gig in 50 odd years. Bring it!
     • ScottGN 2.1.2

       14 July 2017 at 7:16 pm

       Is that the government you want BM?
       • BM 2.1.2.1

         14 July 2017 at 7:28 pm

         I’m fairly relaxed about the whole thing.
         What I want is irrelevant if the people want a National/NZ Government then a Nat?NZ First government we shall have,
         • ScottGN 2.1.2.1.1

           14 July 2017 at 7:37 pm

           Fairly relaxed? You sound like our previous PM. Maybe we will have a NZ1st/ Nat government. Maybe it might not be so bad. One thing’s for sure though, the National Party and their gang will hate it.
           • The Fairy Godmother 2.1.2.1.1.1

             14 July 2017 at 7:46 pm

             As much as I would hate to have a 4th term of National I guess it could be a repeat of 1996. Winston goes with National. Both National and NZ First struggle to work together coherently. Both lose support leading to a Labour government for nine years. I really don’t want any more of Nact even if tempered with Winston though.
           • BM 2.1.2.1.1.2

             14 July 2017 at 8:07 pm

             If they have any skills they’ll make it work.
   • Richard 2.2

     14 July 2017 at 7:11 pm

     It leaves National as a very, very strong opposition.
     • James 2.2.1

       14 July 2017 at 7:37 pm

       Well I guess it would be nice to have one for once.
   • James 2.3

     14 July 2017 at 7:36 pm

     Who says that n first will be in opposition after the election?
3. Stuart Munro 3

   14 July 2017 at 7:25 pm

   26 + 14 + 13 = significantly better government. Mind, 750 respondents & 20% won’t say/dunno, means everything is still up for grabs.
4. James 4

   14 July 2017 at 7:29 pm

   I love this.

   A while back it was labour is on xxxxx that’s bad for national.

   Then it became labour / greens are on xxxxx that’s bad for national.

   Now it’s labour / greens / nz first are in xxxx that’s bad for national.

   By the election you will be saying labour / greens / nz first / act / Maori / United future are on xxxx
5. adam 5

   14 July 2017 at 7:40 pm

   So this is now a site dedicated to talking about polls.

   When did that happen, so can we agree as far as distractions go, it’s a quite awful.

   This is what Puckish Rough and BM have been doing for months. Any chance we can stop it? No, OK.

   Oh and by the way, even the teamsters are moving to the left. Just so you know.

   http://portside.org/2017-06-28/we-are-sanctuary-union

   p.s. I know Puckish let his inner bigot out, and coped a ban.
   • mickysavage 5.1

     14 July 2017 at 8:01 pm

     Polls are polls. Presuming it is accurate and someone leaked it may they have an interesting life.

     Still puts the anti Government parties well and truly in the box seat.
     • RedLogix 5.1.1

       14 July 2017 at 8:09 pm

       What it means is that on these numbers the most likely govt after this election is, in order of probability:

       1. National / NZ1

       2. National / Greens

       3. Labour/NZ1/Greens

       Labour have to be in the high 30’s for the third option to have any life at all.
       • JanM 5.1.1.1

         14 July 2017 at 9:17 pm

         National/Greens indeed! – which tree did you climb out of!!!!
         • RedLogix 5.1.1.1.1

           14 July 2017 at 9:53 pm

           Yeah I know, in principle it makes no sense. But when it comes to forming governments pragmatism reigns supreme.

           Besides if you had to choose ONLY between National/NZ1 OR National/Green … which would you prefer?
     • James 5.1.2

       14 July 2017 at 8:30 pm

       You assume nzf is anti government – which is not smart.
6. Tautoko Mangō Mata 6

   14 July 2017 at 8:14 pm

   The polls are simply a pretending vote by 750 people who may/may not be honest in their voting preference.
   The margin of error is < ± 3.6 percent.

   Let’s concentrate on comparing the policies and not waste energy on a leaked poll, obviously designed to discourage Labour who are putting out some good social policies.
   It is in National’s interest to distract from these policies, because apart from tax cuts, all they can promise is

   1. continuing subsidising of the pollution of our waterways by buying overseas C credits
   2. passing laws to override protections of conservation land and pristine coastal waters
   3. Allowing continuing sale of NZ land to overseas investors
   4. More block tenders for oil and mineral exploration
   5. continued real reductions in the public service, hospitals, state schools, universities

   Wake up media. Paddy Gower, etc.
   We want to hear about POLICIES, NOT POLLS!
   We are voting on POLICIES, NOT POLLS!
   • James 6.1

     14 July 2017 at 8:31 pm

     We want to hear about POLICIES, NOT POLLS!

     Some of us like to hear about both. But I guess when 9 years of polls are bad for you you want to stop hearing about it.
     • Stuart Munro 6.1.1

       14 July 2017 at 9:20 pm

       Flipside is – Gnat policies are rubbish and they’d rather keep them quiet and pass them by stealth cos they never had a ghost of a mandate. Horserace journalism is their only hope, having achieved nothing of value in nine interminable years of atrocious misgovernance.
       • Ed 6.1.1.1

         14 July 2017 at 9:40 pm

         I don’t know of any National policies. Crosby Textor don’t write those.
         I’m just aware of their slogans and smears.
         • james 6.1.1.1.1

           14 July 2017 at 9:47 pm

           Try reading then – https://www.national.org.nz/policies
7. Gabby 7

   14 July 2017 at 8:50 pm

   You know, it would be a bit of a laugh to let Bingles have a crack at governing with no confidence and supply agreements. Nothing gets done without at least one minor party agreeing and the opposition could push its own legislation.
8. ianmac 8

   14 July 2017 at 9:35 pm

   Hey Morgan Poll! July
   “In July New Zealand’s opposition Labour/Greens has jumped 4.5% to 44% now just ahead of incumbent National on 43% (down 3.5%) following the scandal involving National MP Todd Barclay. However, in New Zealand’s September election the issues of Poverty, Housing and Homelessness and Inequality will be critical to the outcome.

   The overall support for the governing National-led coalition was down 3.5% to 45.5% with National support down 3.5% to 43% while support for their Coalition partners was unchanged with Maori Party on 1.5%, Act NZ on 1% and United Future on 0%.
   Support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance was up 4.5% to 44% driven by the 5% rise in support for Labour, now on 30.5%, while support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 13.5%. Support for New Zealand First was down 1% to 8%.
   Support for the parties currently outside Parliament was unchanged at 2.5%.”
9. Sacha 9

   14 July 2017 at 9:36 pm

   Pushback from Canterbury DHB Chair against cosseted Treasury officials criticising fiscal rectitude: http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/94728711/canterbury-dhb-chair-tells-treasury-walk-a-mile-in-our-shoes
10. sweetie9 10

    14 July 2017 at 10:08 pm

    I just about wet myself when I saw that UMR poll. Andrew must have known, why didn’t he warn us?
    • james 10.1

      14 July 2017 at 10:09 pm

      He was probably too busy almost wetting himself as well.
11. james 11

    14 July 2017 at 10:47 pm

    Here is some neat reading for this evening:

    https://www.odt.co.nz/opinion/editorial/electoral-dysfunction

    The ODT contains such gems as:

    “Mr Peters is at 11% and is inching towards being called the Leader of the Opposition, despite Labour having more MPs than NZ First.

    Speculation will start, if it has not already, on whether Mr Peters should rightfully debate Prime Minister Bill English in the election leaders’ debates – rather than Mr Little.”

    and

    “Mr Little is moving closer to the area trod rarely by political leaders of not being wanted to support candidates in electorates the party wants to win.”

    “Even putting a brave face on the latest polling, Mr Little seems likely to turn voters away from Labour rather than have them flocking to the party. ”

    So – Im guessing not fans of Mr Little.
    • Draco T Bastard 11.1

      14 July 2017 at 11:05 pm

      New ‘100% Pure’ campaign shows tourist drinking river water

      While concerns grow about the health of New Zealand’s waterways – including the potential for reputational damage – it has not changed the way the country presents itself to the world.

      The latest “100% Pure” campaign, released last week, shows a tourist drinking water from a river, something that would be dangerous in parts of the country.

      So, our government has moved on to actually putting tourists lives at risk.
12. Pat 12

    15 July 2017 at 12:25 am

    “For both Rodrik and Wolf, the political reaction to globalisation bore possibilities of deep uncertainty. “I really have found it very difficult to decide whether what we’re living through is a blip, or a fundamental and profound transformation of the world – at least as significant as that one brought about the first world war and the Russian revolution,” Wolf told me. He cited his agreement with economists such as Summers that shifting away from the earlier emphasis on globalisation had now become a political priority; that to pursue still greater liberalisation was like showing “a red rag to a bull” in terms of what it might do to the already compromised political stability of the western world.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/14/globalisation-the-rise-and-fall-of-an-idea-that-swept-the-world

    ….can you hear Winston’s voice as you read?…

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