Even Mike Hosking thinks that a National-Act-NZ First coalition would be an absolute disaster

Written By: - Date published: 10:22 am, September 26th, 2023 - 63 comments
Categories: Christopher Luxon, election 2023, greens, labour, national, national/act government, nz first, same old national, winston peters - Tags:

Yesterday morning in a 7 am social media dump Christopher Luxon finally announced what we have all known for ages and that was he would pick up the phone and ring Winston if National needed NZ First support.

Here is the clip.

The method was interesting.  I guess this way Luxon did not have to answer pesky questions from reporters.

Luxon had the temerity to describe a Labour Green Te Pati Maori coalition as a coalition of chaos twice during the clip.  If ever there was a coalition that deserved that monkier it is a National/Act/NZ First coalition.

The reason for Luxon’s desperation became clear later on in the day.  Last night’s Reid Research poll matched the previous One News Verian poll and had National shed a couple of points.  Act also went in reverse, Labour was essentially stable and the Greens surged.  The right no longer have an absolute majority.

If this trend continues for the next three weeks then things will get really, really tight.

So Luxon had no option but telegraph his intent to pick up the phone and call Winston.  If he has to.

The problem for Luxon is that NZ First has positioned itself as an extremist party.  It is no longer the party dedicated to handing out lollies to provincial New Zealand.  It has some Trumpian extremist policies and candidates.

Like this guy who is number 12 on NZ First’s list.  At the Young Leaders debate he came up with some unusual views.  From Radio New Zealand:

He is 12th on NZ First’s list and – with the party polling around 5 percent – seems very unlikely to enter Parliament. His intro skated over the party’s priorities of wanting to stand up against “woke extremism”, say no to co-governance, “put the K back into iwi”, protect assets, and incentivise careers for those who stayed in New Zealand.

During the rainbow issues segment, he was asked about the party’s policy of removing “gender ideology” from curriculum, challenged over whether it really was an important issue. He justified it by saying parents are very concerned about “complex, sexual, inappropriate discussions happening at school”, and referred to warnings from a right-leaning lobby group about primary school children being disciplined if they did not affirm other children’s gender: “we can’t shut people up because it hurts our feelings”.

Swarbrick interrupted, saying “I think you’re talking about consequences, bro”. She said the data showed trans people and children were more highly represented in mental ill health and suicide statistics, “and mate, it’s driven by rhetoric from the likes of your party,” to applause from the audience. Donoghue responded that “more people are transgendering, or transitioning, than ever before”, blaming Swarbrick’s rhetoric, to boos.

His beliefs about international organisations are also very interesting.

The final surprise of the night came when the participants were asked to explain why they were in politics, audience members outright laughing at Donoghue for referring to a desire to protect the country from “globalist NGOs like the UN, world economic forum”.

Both organisations are the targets of multiple conspiracy theories, and while Donoghue may not subscribe to them, his comment certainly seems likely to court the vote of believers.

And any party that as one of its major policies is to “[e]nsure a full scale, wide ranging, independent, one year inquiry conducted publicly with local and international experts, into how the Covid pandemic was handled in New Zealand” is clearly after the cooker vote.

Clearly the calculation is that 5% of the country’s electors have Trumpian views.

NZ First’s announced policies are an interesting collection.  There are three separate policies all involved in moving Auckland Wharf to Northland.  I wonder who would benefit from such a move?

National’s cheerleaders in the media have not taken this well.  Mike Hosking for instance said this:

This morning’s call by National that they will deal with New Zealand First, if they have to, is exactly the sort of thing they should have been able to avoid if they took the advice of people like me weeks ago.

The poll last week showing 82 percent of us wanted to know one way or the other shows how shockingly National misread the mood.

By spending all that time and energy the way Chris Luxon did sticking his fingers in his ears, telling us he wasn’t even thinking of it, he didn’t want to talk about it, he wasn’t above the threshold, he wasn’t in parliament, it wasn’t an issue, has all led to this.

And this:

The line that National had about the Greens and the Maori Party and the coalition of chaos is now null and void, as you look at the prospect of National and Act and Peters, with the latter two openly hating each other.

And this:

Cue Luxon, bumbling and stumbling his way through question after question, refusing to deal with an elephant in the room that was getting more and more embarrassing.

Winston is something of a poisoned pill.  And stand by as people who are really worried about the country’s future decide that the mix offered by the right decide to vote left.

Despite predictions to the contrary this election is getting tighter and tighter.  I would not be surprised if this election ends up in a 2005 style cliff hanger.

63 comments on “Even Mike Hosking thinks that a National-Act-NZ First coalition would be an absolute disaster ”

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  1. James Simpson 1
    26 September 2023 at 10:33 am

    NZF has always been Trumpian in their views. That is not something new. They have been anti-immigration, inward looking and anti free trade since their inception.

    This hasn't stopped both major parties jumping into bed with Winston when they need to.

    There is no way that Winston will sit at the cabinet table with ACT. In the same way as he dictated negotiations in 2017 to shut the Greens out he will do the same with ACT.

    Which is actually a better outcome if there is to be a change of government.

    • bwaghorn 1.1
      26 September 2023 at 12:18 pm

      anti-immigration

      Is that bad to say it ain't on to flood a country with immigrants when we can't house our own, and that it'll drive up unemployment?

      • SPC 1.1.1
        26 September 2023 at 12:55 pm

        Yeah maybe

        1.restrict migration to skills shortage areas and otherwise where the employer guarantees both a job and housing.

        2.restrict students with work rights to study in areas where we have skills shortages or otherwise to those at above undergraduate level – masters and doctorates.

        3.tourists with short term work rights.

    • gsays 1.2
      26 September 2023 at 12:28 pm

      You say anti-free trade, inward looking like they are bad things. Surely if we are serious about mitigating against CC then the solutions are local. The potato products from Belgium, and their like, have to stop.

      Also immigration, this government has the immigration tap on full bore. Undermining worker's pay and conditions, keeping housing inaffordability up and placing severe strain on under funded infrastructure.

      I'm no fan of Peter's and we simply can't keep Neo-Liberaling our way through CC.

    • SPC 1.3
      26 September 2023 at 12:47 pm

      That has been their policy and would be WP's preference.

      NZF has always been in two party coalitions. 1996-1999 (did not last), 2005-2008 (did last, ignore Anderton) and even in 2017, Greens were relegated to support partner.

      Whether he can pull it off this time is less certain. Luxon professes a preference for a coalition with ACT (to move those of the right concerned about Seymour's hubris towards National).

      NZF would want ACT's slide to continue but the Herald will keep publishing pro right wing policy opine in favour of the policy prescription of ACT to hold up their vote at 5-10% levels.

      If ACT's vote stays above NZF, then the outcome might be a National minority government as per 2008-2017. Then Key had multiple options to dominate the support partners. If National forms the next government and Luxon needs both to have majority, then he has to play them off against the other.

      1.Where ACT's policy is too extreme for the electoral centre, use Peter's as a block and have NZF claim the credit (super policy etc).

      2.Where ACT and NZF agree, let ACT claim these as policy wins (Brash Orewa etc).

      Whether as a formal coalition agreement (not resolved until Dec 24 or the 2024 new year most likely) or a minority government with 2 support partners.

  2. Dennis Frank 2
    26 September 2023 at 10:40 am

    If Hipkins has the guts to call them the Coalition of Crap he'll start to seem a winner. I bet he fails this credibility test. Why? Because it's obvious & he's Labour.

    Talking the lingo of the land will always get you maximum traction. Effing elementary, my dear Watson. Collective resonance makes it happen.

    As for the young fella trying to save the country from globalists, he's obviously a hero and there's few of them left. Don't count him out!

    • Kat 2.1
      26 September 2023 at 11:02 am

      Yes even Luxon has even risen to using the word "malarkey"…not sure that his mentor and advisor on Winston and numbers saw the irony in that………then again some would say we Kiwis don't do irony….

      • Dennis Frank 2.1.1
        26 September 2023 at 11:36 am

        Cool, I get to mine the depths of culture:

        Origin unknown; perhaps from Greek malakós, “soft; compliant, meek; gentle, mellow, mild, mild-mannered”) or malakía, “masturbation; (figuratively) idiocy, stupidity; bullshit, nonsense”). The word was popularized by the Irish-American cartoonist Thomas Aloysius (“Tad”) Dorgan (1877–1929), who started using it in cartoons on March 9, 1922.

        https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/malarkey

        Could be Irish ancestry in the Lux. Them celtic genes can do some notable sideways moves at times. Maybe he'll surprise us with wit??

        • Kat 2.1.1.1
          26 September 2023 at 12:38 pm

          If Luxon has any celtic genes then they would most likely be the result of a bit of darkened room, under the covers fully clothed malarkey on the Shankill Road…..

    • SPC 2.2
      26 September 2023 at 12:26 pm

      The metaphor to use, is what a mess that coalition would make and "we/Labour" would have to clean it all up, once again.

      Best used in debate about having a provision in the budget (unlike National raiding of funds for tax cuts) to manage recovery from flood events and also prevent them in the future.

      And then onto having a plan to ensure safe drinking water quality in the provinces.

  3. Peter 3
    26 September 2023 at 10:43 am

    A National-Act-NZ First coalition might be an absolute disaster.

    What is a Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori-NZFirst opposition going to look like? That is a possibility.

    • tc 3.1
      26 September 2023 at 12:53 pm

      Depends on the seats each has.

      I like to think if the first 3 have enough to pass legislation then we could get some genuine social change.

      Chippy would have to depart but that's on him for taking the position he has on a wealth tax.

      • Belladonna 3.1.1
        26 September 2023 at 4:56 pm

        Just as 'chaotic' as the National/ACT/NZF one.

        There is a stark divide on policy between Winston and TPM (for example); and he's got form in ruling the Greens out of government.

      • Patricia Bremner 3.1.2
        26 September 2023 at 5:02 pm

        He Chippy believes in Democracy and Social Justice. So he would accept the will of the people and accept the direction.

  4. roblogic 4
    26 September 2023 at 11:01 am

    Some other stuff I’ve seen on the socials is that the Nats have a gutsful of ACT cannibalising “their” RWNJ voter base, but they see Winston First as less of a threat as it’s soaking up floaters, cookers and the soft left vote

    This is a campaign of fear uncertainty and doubt. It seems pretty clear to me that Nact’s policies are short sighted and self serving and will cause widespread suffering. I hope the voting public will realise this before making a huge mistake this election.

    There may be some fair criticisms of some of the left’s pet projects, but the Nats want Kiwis to focus on fringe issues and forget about our real problems of housing health and inequality, which they have no intention of fixing

    • Drowsy M. Kram 4.1
      26 September 2023 at 11:14 am

      Nice summary – thanks for that.

      NAct's policies are short-sighted, self-serving and will cause widespread suffering.
      The Nat's have no intention of fixing our real problems of housing, health & inequality.

  5. Mike the Lefty 5
    26 September 2023 at 11:21 am

    You should have heard Seymour's interview on Midday Report yesterday.

    Seymour ducked, dived and avoided the questions on whether he would work with Winston. He couldn’t give a straight answer.

    He is obviously feeling very uncomfortable with the current position as the polls suggest.

    http://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018908386

    By the way I suggest an alternative moniker for National/ACT/NZ First: A coalition of division.
    Not perhaps as satisfying as other monikers but just as pertinent.

    • James Simpson 5.1
      26 September 2023 at 11:28 am

      Winston will not give him the option being in government/cabinet.

      If the numbers stay the same as they are now, it would be a minority Nat/NZF government with ACT supporting on confidence and supply. The right wing version of the 2017 Labour/NZF government.

      Seymour might get a minister or 2 outside of government

  6. Sanctuary 6
    26 September 2023 at 11:41 am

    Peter's pivot to the cooker end of the market is most little more than supreme opportunism from a guy who recently celebrated the 30th anniversary of the party he founded yet, on his passing, it will disappear. That is because Winston is in it for Winston. It is all about him. Always has been. His party is an empty vessel, a vehicle for a venal and capricious man whose main aim is to be the centre of attention. Let's face it – he hates Jacinda mainly because she became way, way more famous than him.

    I don't for a moment think Peter's believes any of the cooker bullshit he is peddling – he just want to be back in power. He'll forget about the cookers the minute he is back in parliament. Of course, it is a dangerous to not take a politician on his or her word, except that Peters is a complete snake so his case is an exception.

    Having made clear what I think of Peters, should NZ First return to parliament and be kingmaker to a potential National-ACT coalition then it'll be an MMP triumph. MMP is specifically designed to keep extremists out of power. ACT is an extremist party. David Seymour was today in the paper described by a party candidate as a cult leader. Paul Henry endorsed Seymour ina piece in the Herald that can be best described as a quasi-fascist rant. Returning a party to the parliament that will stymie the far right and increasingly authoritarian ACT party from enacting a Pinochet agenda is exactly what MMP was adopted to do – remember, MMP was voted for to stop far right political "reforms".

    If that does happen (or if Labour-Greens-TPM stitch up a government) the billionaire and multi-millionaire class that has invested a lot into National and ACT in the expectation of a return to rentier crony capitalism business as usual will not be happy. Most likely they will turn on democracy itself. A stymied Seymour and the right wing of National will start talking about "electoral reform" to get rid of MMP, mutter about rigged elections, demand voter ID laws & other voter suppression laws, and move on defunding the electoral commission and all the rest – which they may do if even if they win anyway.

    • AB 6.1
      26 September 2023 at 4:10 pm

      Peters definitely works out which way the tide is flowing and swims with it. In 2017 he was claiming that capitalism needs to regain its human face. In 2023 he's saving us from the woke mob. Very Protean in his principles.

      A stymied Seymour and the right wing of National will start talking about "electoral reform" to get rid of MMP

      Yes – well noted. It may be too late to exhume Peter Shirtcliffe by then. Though somebody like the Taxpayers Union could do the job – what is democracy but wasteful spending after all? I was thinking the other day how there are probably more twists and turns to come in the MMP story. To some extent I think NZ has found our own way of making MMP work that is beginning to feel 'settled' and perhaps strong enough to resist future attacks. But nothing is certain.

    • logie97 6.2
      26 September 2023 at 6:26 pm

      I have to love the reference – "hating Jacinda because she became way, way more famous …"

      And my comment is related to something way out of left field. I was searching for articles on Chris Kelley 2018 Chairman of the English RFU. A profile of him says he met several famous people in his time, including the NZ foreign Minister "Winston Jones". Pour old Winston must have been brown-nosing on one of his overseas missions and tried to use his rugby connections to get a seat at Twickenham.

      [In your next comment, please change your e-mail back to the one that you used before here on TS, thanks – Incognito]

      [lprent: this one is a deliberate change – see https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-17-08-2022/#comment-1906261

      logie97 sent me an e-mail, including the previous ‘e-mail’. BTW: Generally we treat the e-mail as a shared secret between the site and the guest commenter (ie without a login). Since I stopped allowing non-author logins to be added back in about 2009. That is a very small set of people. ]

  7. gsays 7
    26 September 2023 at 12:41 pm

    I care for neither of their politics.

    It has to be admitted, post 2020 election, more than just myself was rubbing their hands together in glee at the prospect of Seymour having to keep his big intake of rookie politicians in line.

    I begrudgingly acknowledge they have done a great job of keeping themselves out of the spotlight. I can only name the top 2.

    Similarly Luxon has done a good job of implementing discipline over the National party. Judith Who? They were clearly unfit to govern 3 years ago.

    Contrast that with Labour's upheavals: retiring ministers, a so-called left wing minister not able to keep his share portfolio in order etc. Couple that with the tension created by one outburst from the Green co-leader in regards to the cause of violence in society.

    May you live in interesting times….

  8. That_guy 8
    26 September 2023 at 2:06 pm

    Sorry to rain on the parade: I'm firmly left-wing. The RSE material coming out of the MoE is concerning. It contains message after message that suggests that gender-non-conforming kids have something wrong with them that needs fixing, The outcome is that supposed progressives are telling LGB kids that they are broken and need to be fixed, and screaming "fascist" at anyone who spots the problem.

    It's completely accurate to say that parents are concerned about " “complex, sexual, inappropriate discussions happening at school” , as is their right.

    When the national scientific bodies of multiple OECD countries are saying that it perhaps isn't a good idea to do irreversible things to kids on the basis of low quality evidence, we should listen.

    It's a disgrace that these opinions are considered "right wing" and it's a disgrace that only right wing MPs are willing to express them, especially when I know for a fact that several Green MPs agree with me.

    • Roy Cartland 8.1
      26 September 2023 at 3:00 pm

      I don't think the opinions you state are incompatible with left wing.

      We've created a world of such hyper-individualism that kids are being told they can just be whatever they want just by saying so; and legions of online networks, clinics and metaverses will always be there to 'support' them (driving away anyone that disagrees).

      It's much more profitable to do this than to teach kids to love themselves as they are. Women, men, old, young, rich, poor are all targets of hate in society now, and running away to be anything else is celebrated.

      It's the most neo-liberal ideology there is in some ways.

    • SPC 8.2
      26 September 2023 at 3:33 pm

      When the national scientific bodies of multiple OECD countries are saying that it perhaps isn't a good idea to do irreversible things to kids on the basis of low quality evidence, we should listen.

      The MOH position of this is changing and has already changed based on evidence of harm (to the brain and skeletal from early intervention – the do no harm principle).

      It contains message after message that suggests that gender-non-conforming kids have something wrong with them that needs fixing,

      Evidence please. An acceptance of those stating a difference to their birth sex is not the same as placing any pressure on those children who appear to be gender non conforming.

      The outcome is that supposed progressives are telling LGB kids that they are broken and need to be fixed, and screaming "fascist" at anyone who spots the problem.

      Evidence please. Those non gender conforming – artistic/indoor boys/outdoorsy active tom boy girls are generally not LGB anyhow. And those who will/might be are not identifying as such at that stage. There is more acceptance of gender non conformity than the past but no pressure to relate that to being transgender.

      This is a development of the old scares that acceptance of same sexuality among adults and this knowledge being part of social studies in schools was indoctrinating children to be so.

      • That_guy 8.2.1
        26 September 2023 at 5:35 pm

        These are my subjective interpretations of what’s in a public document on the MoH website. I don’t think I need evidence for the existence of a document or my interpretations of it. You are free to read it and come to your own subjective interpretations. It’s not hard to find.

        Those non gender conforming – artistic/indoor boys/outdoorsy active tom boy girls are generally not LGB anyhow

        Evidence please. Some won’t be , some will be.

        • SPC 8.2.1.1
          26 September 2023 at 6:32 pm

          So we have no idea what part of the document you base your suppositions on because you will not say.

          OK.

          Those non gender conforming – artistic/indoor boys/outdoorsy active tom boy girls are generally not LGB anyhow

          Evidence please. Some won’t be , some will be.

          Evidence of what? I said most not conforming to gender stereotypes are not LGB. You confine your reckon to some are and some are not.

          I base my more specific reckon on the fact that the numbers not conforming to gender stereotypes are more numerous than those LGB.

          • That_guy 8.2.1.1.1
            26 September 2023 at 8:02 pm

            Evidence of what? I said most not conforming to gender stereotypes are not LGB. You confine your reckon to some are and some are not.

            So this is both of us saying the same thing, except I'm not claiming a level of specificity that you are.

            I'm not going on about this because I don't actually want it to be an election issue, because it will make the Greens look bad, and nobody has any gender on a dead planet. It's clear to me that NZ cannot discuss this coherently in this election cycle. We'll have to wait for the lawsuits and medical scandals before this gets discussed rationally.

            • SPC 8.2.1.1.1.1
              26 September 2023 at 8:21 pm

              Given the Greens have never been in government – policy on this has not been its responsibility.

              And given our ACC legislation, this won't be a lawsuit issue here. It could result in a health review depending on number of past problem cases and rate of change in code of practice.

              The SUFW and the political party will focus on the detail of the HRA and the inter-changeability of gender with sex to date. Because this has occurred elsewhere in government legislation and on documents.

              It'll be discussed on an issue by issue basis – they will raise the way prisons operate to ensure safety, and then move on from there. Safety practice in refuges, right of groups to exclude (in person gatherings and online – the same right that religious groups have etc). And if there is to be self ID, can this be lost, if there is offensive/illegal behaviour?

              The public places – changing rooms – schools/swimming pools/gyms/sports clubs. The public use bathrooms. Etc.

              And of course the schools "student policy" regime and government organisation "employment policy" practice.

              Plenty to work on …

      • That_guy 8.2.2
        26 September 2023 at 5:40 pm

        The Ministry put up inaccurate information about medical treatments intended for minors, left it there for ages after it became clear how inaccurate it was, quietly removed the information when their position became untenable, and then did sweet FA to counter the dangerous and inaccurate ideas about this treatment, ideas spread by them.

  9. ianmac 9
    26 September 2023 at 2:11 pm

    That Guy: "The RSE material coming out of the MoE is concerning. It contains message after message that suggests that gender-non-conforming kids have something wrong with them that needs fixing"

    Really? News to some teacher friends.

    • That_guy 9.1
      26 September 2023 at 5:37 pm

      As I patiently point out every time this point is made, schools do not have to use the material. Many do not, because parents are often deeply uncomfortable with it.

  10. Stephen D 10
    26 September 2023 at 2:28 pm

    It isn’t compulsory to teach. We stick to what our BOT authorises. In consultation with our community.

  11. lprent 11
    26 September 2023 at 3:03 pm

    I find myself astonished. I agree with Mike Hosking about what I call the potential "Coalition of the Incompatible"

    Act – National – NZ First is a coalition would be a ungoverning mess. It'd be fun to harpoon and lambast.

  12. Ad 12
    26 September 2023 at 3:34 pm

    It would be a fun result if NZFirst got about the same 8+- % as ACT.

    That would make such a stark difference in $$ spent per vote, just to rub in the difference between ACT donor class and NZF donors.

    And to think ACT were targeting 15% two weeks ago…

    • SPC 12.1
      26 September 2023 at 3:42 pm

      I am looking for 6.5% each with National contained to under 35% – c 48%.

      An impasse. Labour 30% Greens 14% and TPM 3% – c48%.

      Leaving it to the flexible centre to resolve

      WP Minister of Foreign Affairs outside of Cabinet and SJ as Speaker.

      NZF abstaining on matters of confidence and supply in return for …. some stuff not happening in the 3 year period and …

      • Belladonna 12.1.1
        26 September 2023 at 5:04 pm

        So, suddenly NZF isn't a disastrous coalition partner, if the coalition is on the Left!

        All of the arguments you've been making about him destabilizing government as part of a RW coalition – are just as valid if he's in a LW coalition.

        Really, WP will be exactly the same in negotiations with either side – if he'd settle for FM outside of cabinet – as his bauble of office – then I'm quite sure that National would fall over themselves to give it to him.

        I wonder if he's hanging out for Speaker…..

        • Peter 12.1.1.1
          26 September 2023 at 5:20 pm

          The glory and power of being speaker would be right up his alley. Trouble is having to be on the ball every minute, the onerousness of the task, not having the luxury of being able to pass everything off to minions and the strictures.

          Speaker Gerry.

          • gsays 12.1.1.1.1
            26 September 2023 at 5:32 pm

            Winnnie would be way more fun than Brownlee as speaker plus the wood work teacher would be pissed off.

        • gsays 12.1.1.2
          26 September 2023 at 5:25 pm

          A Knight of the Realm, Sir Jonky no less, mentioned that (Winnie as speaker) as a possibility on RNZ last evening. He had been chatting with Luxon for a while now and didn’t deny ‘advising’ Luxon.

          The mind boggles.

        • SPC 12.1.1.3
          26 September 2023 at 5:58 pm

          A case made of straw, that blows away in the wind. .

          Breathe through the nose and comprehend.

          Should there be an impasse.

          The only party in the centre able to be flexible is NZF

          If it then withdraws from the centre-right block, then the Labour led government backed by Greens and TPM has the majority on confidence and supply votes.

          Thus order out of deadlock chaos.

          Obviously a NZF Speaker and while Jones loves to talk, Peters has the diplomatic circuit and his home away from home MFAT. Given most of our policy in this area is bi-partisan not a concern to left or right.

          Befitting a party not providing confidence and supply to a government he would be outside cabinet and he and other NZF MP's able to criticise domestic policy.

          Really, WP will be exactly the same in negotiations with either side – if he'd settle for FM outside of cabinet – as his bauble of office – then I'm quite sure that National would fall over themselves to give it to him.

          No it only applies with an impasse. This is an option only available to NZF with those on the other block.

          • Belladonna 12.1.1.3.1
            26 September 2023 at 6:08 pm

            I’m not quite sure what you mean by an “impasse” – but if WP holds the balance of power, then he can (and I’m quite sure will) negotiate with both sides.
            It doesn’t matter if one side only need 1 MP, and the other needs 5 to gain a majority – if NZF control all 6 seats.

            The Right can offer him all of this as well.

            So your "order out of deadlock chaos" can just as easily benefit the right.

            Amazing how the 'chaos' you were decrying only yesterday, can be magically ordered when you see some potential benefit for the Left.

            Myself, I have no time for Peters – whether he goes Right or Left – the ultimate calculation is 'what's in it for Winston'.

            But, if you want to regard WP as a potential savour…..

            • SPC 12.1.1.3.1.1
              26 September 2023 at 6:40 pm

              I am having to seriously doubt your capacity to debate honestly in an election period.

              You have to be playing dumb.

              I am looking for 6.5% each with National contained to under 35% – c 48%.

              An impasse. Labour 30% Greens 14% and TPM 3% – c48%.

              60 seats to 60 seats. Impasse

              Peters cannot install a centre-right government and he has said that he will not support a Labour government (either in a coalition or confidence and supply).

              In such a case it is either another election, or as I suggested.

              This is my last debate with you before the election.

              • Belladonna …
                26 September 2023 at 6:51 pm

                I'm seriously doubting your ability to do basic MMP arithmetic.

                It doesn't *matter* if the seat total is 59 Right and 56 Left (or any other combination of numbers in the high 50s).

                If NZF have 6 seats (getting 5% of the party vote) then they *hold the balance of power*. Without them, neither side can form a government.

                It doesn't matter if NZF are in government, or sit on the cross-benches with confidence and supply (your magic wand solution to this issue for the benefit of Labour)

                That means that WP is the kingmaker, and can negotiate with either or both sides, to get the best deal for him (note, I don't say for the country)

                If neither will give in to his demands – then, yes indeed we have another election.

                For some strange reason, you seem to think that it will all be roses if WP chooses Labour, but will be an unmitigated governmental disaster if he chooses National.

            • Drowsy M. Kram 12.1.1.3.1.2
              27 September 2023 at 11:00 am

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winebox_Inquiry#History

              Winebox winners and losers [30 June, 2000]
              It is time for Sir William Birch and other politicians to stop worrying about a few million dollars and look at the wider picture.

              Myself, I have no time for Peters…

              Still, he facilitated the termination of the 5th National govt, and looks set to entertain again. Say what you like about Winston – he's got staying power.

              Plus I'm grateful for the SuperGold card.

              SuperGold Card came under threat in 2010 when National Minister Steven Joyce tried to terminate free SuperGold transport on some more expensive public transport services, including the Waiheke Island ferry and the Wairarapa Connection train. The Minister retreated when he came under fire from senior citizens.

              Pollies (and their supporters) who see NZ as a collection of assets ripe for plunder are (imho) NZ's real "bottom feeders". Have Willis and Luxon looked at the wider picture re relaxing the ban on foreigners purchasing Kiwi homes? I reckon some of their donors have – nothing new under the sun.

              Govt’s 2010 tax cuts costing $2 billion and counting [13 May 2012]
              The Green Party has today revealed that the National Government has so far had to borrow an additional $2 billion dollars to fund their 2010 tax cut package for upper income earners.
              …
              “The National Government said that their signature 2010 income tax cut package would be ‘fiscally neutral’ — paid for increased revenues from raising GST. That hasn’t happened.”
              …
              “National’s poor economic decisions have led to record levels of government debt and borrowing.”

  13. Ad 13
    26 September 2023 at 3:39 pm

    Also weird that 2 weeks ago we were agog at how ACT at 15% of Cabinet positions were going to be a handful for National …

    … when the fun story for progressives is how is Labour's caucus ego going to deal with themselves finishing in +- 26% and Greens get 15% on current trend.

    With a full wipeout forecast of Labour's next generation of leadership on the List, maybe the most obvious choice for rebuilding the Finance portfolio is in fact with James Shaw.

    On current trend it's looking like Anderton's New Labour but with a slower and more measured growth rate.

    • roblogic 13.1
      26 September 2023 at 4:29 pm

      Would vote for Shaw to take Finance. Had enough of Robertson's instinctive 'safe option' of status quo neoliberal centrism when what we really needed in the wake of Covid was actual change.

      And it looks like "Change" is what we are going to get, for better or worse

  14. Adrian 14
    26 September 2023 at 3:44 pm

    Winston is a very clever politician he has courted the drongos each with their 500 or 1000 or so supporters to just get him over the line but I think only one is in the first six lineup and that one is looking a bit shakey. If Winston does get in the phone is off the hook to them after the vote. That’s when it will get nasty. Can anyone see Winston agreeing to sell 2000 NZ homes every year to Arab Gulf absentee owners as the spokesperson for Sothebys predicted a few nights ago on one of the news outlets, where he stated that his phones/ emails had not stopped since the Luxon announcement. He was rubbing his hands in glee as he said that. ( bit of sarcasm there )

    • roblogic 14.1
      26 September 2023 at 3:49 pm

      Winston only cares for the baubles of office, he has a history of saying whatever his parochial supporters want to hear and then turning around and signing up to anything regardless of its impact on the people of NZ. It's Winston First all the way

  15. sad 15
    26 September 2023 at 3:50 pm

    Let's hope nzf gets 4.9% and act keeps going down where it should be given its extremist policies

    Read a article in Chinese publication yesterday saying Chinese investors exiting overseas investments big time good luck Nicola, who loses jobs for her incompetence

  16. Michael P 16
    26 September 2023 at 5:37 pm

    "…NZ First has positioned itself as an extremist party…"

    Extremist?? That's rubbish.

    "…no to co-governance, “put the K back into iwi”, protect assets, and incentivise careers for those who stayed in New Zealand…"

    Those positions are hardly extremist, probably being the views of a sizeable number of voters.Trump isn't an extremist either, nor are his views.

    "…removing “gender ideology” from curriculum…"

    I don't know but would guess that a large majority of voters would agree that gender ideology should be removed from the curriculum, so is hardly extremist.

    Wanting to protect the country from globalist organizations is hardly extremist either. Many people see globalism as the failure it is for ordinary people and you only have to look at the UN or WEF or WTO websites to see how scary their overarching agendas and some of their ideas are.

    To suggest NZ First is now an extremist party. regardless of whether you agree with any of their policy ideas, is ridiculous.

    • Roy Cartland 16.1
      26 September 2023 at 9:48 pm

      Extremist policies, not party, is what was stated. And to mix and mingle with extremists to then pander to them, I think the E word is justified here. As Patricia says, dogs and fleas and all that.

  17. Patricia Bremner 17
    26 September 2023 at 8:59 pm

    If you walk among and encourage extremists… Like a dog and fleas.devil

  18. Thinker 18
    27 September 2023 at 9:02 am

    If you put your Luxon hat on there's a silver lining to the Winston cloud…

    National has been promising some dubious policies and the populace is all primed up for Winston to ruin a three way handshake coalition.

    Dont underestimate the potential for National and ACT in this. It could give them an excuse to push for a bigger share of the 2026 vote…

  19. Mike the Lefty 19
    27 September 2023 at 10:03 am

    What would be supremely satisfying would be the look on Hosking's face if Labour/Greens/Te Pati Maori defied the odds and won.

    It was said that after the 2020 election Hosking looked like someone who had swallowed arsenic.

    Good if this could be recreated another time.

  20. Clive Macann 20
    27 September 2023 at 12:20 pm

    "Even Mike Hosking thinks that a National-Act-NZ First coalition would be an absolute disaster"

    The obvious thing is Hoskins has said that to try and rally all the National or potential National voters together to stop it happening. Really clear about his intent.

  21. Tricledrown 21
    27 September 2023 at 1:49 pm

    National have had the rug pulled by Peters before , Winston gets tail wagging rights Winston will play them for the fools they are! Since National have said they are going with Winston National and ACT have lost support! Keep it Winston bagging ACT and National.

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