He’s had over a year and still shows no sign of having any new ideas on tax – he tries to avoid all detail and when pressed it comes out as same old national – lower tax on the wealthy, pay for it by cutting the social wage.
That’s a pretty crappy strategy. It means you think your ideas are so flimsy that much time out in the open and they’ll be ripped apart.
But it is the new strategy. ‘small-target’ they call it, you know you’ll be shot to pieces if you say anything of substance so jettison most of your policies (flip flop and adopt the Left’s) and refuse to give anything of substnace on what little remains.
Of course, it depends on the media letting you get away with it.
We’ll see I suppose…I really don’t see them withstanding the journalists for that long, when they’ve already started on it (see campbell, Paul Henry and I think Plunket)
edit: on TAX that is. Surely there will be more policy announcements as the year goes by.
I think it’s a wise strategy in the current climate of anti-Clark anti-Cullen sentiment. Key and National don’t have to be anything at this point: all they have to do is not be the status quo.
The government’s strategy should be to attack them on these grounds with a view to flushing policy out into the open. I do hope for their sakes that Key and English and co. are doing plenty of work behind the scenes, because playing this strategy means that when you come out with policy, it had better be damned good policy.
The latest RM poll makes poor reading for labour also.
49 – 35 which is status quo for that poll. No traction at all after Mickey C threw the kitchen sink at the budget…
Mike: From http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4295/ – “This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 912 electors between May 5-18, 2008.”
We’ll have to wait until the next poll to see how the budget changed matters.
As it happens things don’t look too bad for the government. With the Maori Party, Greens and Progressive they’re within striking distance. That’s MMP for ya.
yes you are right Lew – the radio Live news implied it was after the budget but obviously not. Still I doubt Labour will get a sustainable lift all the same.
Steve: A much deeper question, which I think I’ve already answered in another thread. I don’t like it and I don’t think it promotes political openness, but I’m not sure I’d call it immoral. It’s hard to say whether I’d support a party whose policy (as much as I could figure it out) I agreed with if they played this strategy – on the one hand it’s smart play, and smart actors tend to achieve more than dogmatic actors. On the other, it seems like poor form to reward behavior whcih could be used for such potentially cynical purposes.
That said, it’s the nature of the game. Do you want your side to win, or do you want it to lose nobly?
“We’re still working on a tax policy” was fine. “We do have a policy but we’re not telling you yet” is not.
But John Key’s natural instinct is to tell people good news. He talks about “north of $50” because that’s what people want to hear. He talks about bigger and better tax cuts. It’s no longer a vague aspiration, it’s now a concrete promise. He can’t stop himself.
The point is: the more he does this, the more it sounds as though National DO have a policy, and they’re just not telling us. The public don’t like that.
The more Key talks about tax cuts, the more he invites further questioning, and he can’t/won’t answer the inevitable questions. What’s more, as an inexperienced politician, he’s liable to give different answers (he gave several last week), which then become National policy, in the public mind. And so it continues, with Key looking more and more evasive and confused.
Watch National switch to different topics this week. They have lost the advantage on this one now.
Mike, if you think the public/media are going to spend the next 4 to 5 months saying “OK, no problem, tell us later, whenever you’re ready John”, every time Key talks about tax cuts, then you’re sadly mistaken.
Politics 101: don’t reinforce negative perceptions. “Slippery” is one, and Key is reinforcing it.
Mike: what exactly is a meaningful cut? Key has attempted to put a number on it, and currently the most an interviewer has got out of him is ‘north of fifty dollars’.
However, I believe the polls will continue in Nationals favour, Labour budget aside, until something concrete is announced. At that point I’m really not sure what will happen, as it probably depends on how well the policy is dressed.
Almost any person answering a poll at the moment will not pick Labours guaranteed $16/week (or whatever it may be for them) over Nationals pledged $50. Once the detail is out, that might change.
gobsmacked: “Mike, if you think National are now setting the agenda you must have spent the last week in a cave.”
You’re dead wrong about this. The agenda has already been set: it’s tax cuts, cutting waste, parity with Australia, and a change. Everything in the government’s recent policy, including the budget, is a response to this.
“Politics 101: don’t reinforce negative perceptions. “Slippery’ is one, and Key is reinforcing it.”
As long as he sees the tipping point and moves before it, this probably won’t harm him – presuming he has enough `wow’ policies to justify the wait. It’s risky but not stupid as you claim.
Given that National’s (official) platform is very different from their last one, I’d suggest the agenda has been absolutely set by Labour (and partly, Winston).
“North of fifty dollars” really depends on what way you think is up. Based on his current performance of flopping everywhere like a fish out of water, Key probably means that south is up. ie Less than fifty dollars.
It is either that or hocking the kids future with government debt to sustain the local economy. The current economic climate doesn’t indicate that is something we should do yet – have to have a substantial sustained increase in unemployment first. But it is something that government should keep in reserve. Using it to get yourself elected will cause a hell of backlash from the people that have been paying for the excesses of the Muldoon government for decades.
The other alternative is to cut expenditure. Same kind of problem. To do it in the short term required for the expectations that the Nat’s have raised, requires slash and burn in government. We’ve seen that before in the 90’s. It is a excellent way to start a long-term recession. You cannot get older people to vote for it.
You can shift expenditure over a couple of terms but not massively in the next 3 years. Max would be in order of billions, not 10’s of billions. So there isn’t a lot of room for the Nat’s to move. They may be able to add a chewing gum taxcut next year on top of what goes through in october, but that is about it.
I think that we’ll have to add a whole new maneuver to the political lexicon this year. “Advancing into the future while back-pedaling furiously”.
It is going to be a massive Houdini act by Key and English. And it is going to be really funny to watch.
National have been hoist by their own petard. They, along with the tax cut lobby that gets virtually a fee ride in the middle class media, has created a level of expectation on tax cuts that they simply will not be able to meet. Single people in the $65,000-$85,000 seriously expect tax cuts in the order of $100-120PW and singles below that expect a minimum of $50PW from National. The only way National could possibly achieve these sorts of cuts for the middle class is either take the money from low & middle income New Zealanders or slash core government spending or borrow heavily, or more like a combination of all three. Key is already backing off promising huge tax cuts but I think it is to little, to late. National has been a single issue party for three years on this and they can’t turn the ship around so easily. The expectation they’ve created is sky high and if they don’t deliver they risk a huge backlash.
The credibilty issue still sits with Labour. 8 years of nothing (forget WFF the benefit)It’s obvious to all but the simplist of people that Labopur have only cut taxes to remain in power
National have stated repeatedly that it is a priority and there will be ongoing tax relief. Thats the difference.
gobsmacked: `Given that National’s (official) platform is very different from their last one, I’d suggest the agenda has been absolutely set by Labour (and partly, Winston).’
This isn’t what I mean, and isn’t what you seemed to mean when talking about `the last week’. I agree that Labour’s greatest achivement has been establishing a bunch of their core policies as political orthodoxy, but National are firmly in control of the media agenda leading into the election.
Parties that successfully control the short-to-medium-term tactical agenda don’t fall 15-30% behind in the polls. Labour might claim to have been playing an underdog game to give National a false sense of confidence, but I think that’d be the sort of glib explanation only a true party hack could believe.
toms: “National have been hoist by their own petard.”
This seems to be the fashionable phrase of the year. I think it’s Labour’s intention that this be the case, but it’s far too early to call it so as yet.
Lew – I like the fact that you seem so sure of how the game is played. You seem to treat it as an exact science and phrase your statements as undeniable fact I particularly like the way you use phrases such as “short-to-medium-term tactical agenda”. Would you like to explain to we lesser folk exactly how you define “short-to-medium-term tactical agenda”? Because from where I sit it looks like a pretty nebulous phrase…
gobsmacked – I think you’re right about it being the wrong strategy. It was possibly ok until the Budget. Now voters are expecting to be able to compare he beginnings of two policy plans. The media are clearly tiring of National’s ‘style over substance’ approach too. I’ll post a collection of comments shortly. The next questions might be “do they even have any policy?” rather than “what aren’t they telling us?”.
Robinsod: Sure thing. Terms: agenda: what people think about (not what people think). Tactic: action taken toward the achievement of a specific goal. Strategy: series of actions taken towards the achievement of an more significant, longer-term goal.
National controls the `leading up to the 2008 election’ agenda, and that is a tactical, rather than a strategic, advantage. If they get into power they get the opportunity to begin implementing strategy. The government, on the other hand, controls the long-term strategic heights, having established as status quo a lot of things New Zealanders know and love – interest-free student loans, WFF, KiwiBank, etc. Even if National’s tactical moves to win the election pay off, they’ll still have their task cut out either working around or dismantling these.
I don’t mean to imply that this is an exact science. It’s manifestly not; this is just my read on it, but I think it’s good. If you don’t, I’m happy to debate it – but I don’t have a lot of time for unjustified `I reckons’ and wishful thinking, which makes up a lot of what I see.
Robinsod: If you can make any actual argument against them other than `from where I sit’ you’re welcome to do so. As it stands it just looks like you don’t understand the terminology or the explanation, don’t agree with what I’m saying, or both, but aren’t willing or able to explain why.
Lew – I can’t be bothered arguing point by point because the parameters of the argument you want to have are nothing more than punditry bingo in which all sorts of conclusions can be drawn using all sorts of evidence. I get tired of you phrasing your comments as if you are giving indisputable expert advice. Especially when you are seriously off the mark so often. You seem to believe you are above the game looking down on it objectively. What you don’t understand is that this is just your shtick.
Frankly Lew? Your comments bore the shit out of me and they inevitably drag interesting threads into dull circular arguments about how “the game” works (which, by the way, is the worst kind of political naval gazing). Try making a comment about policy or something with substance. Please.
Mike – go fu*k yourself. You’ve never won an argument in you life. Principally because you are too dumb. You should get back to work and stop stealing your employer’s time.
Sod, can you go even a day without attacking other commenters? I know you don’t like people and all but can you focus your criticism on the arguments rather than the people making them?
Just a point Lew- Labour didn’t “fall behind”, National consolidated the centre-right vote and leapt ahead. Labour support is actually pretty close to what it was last election in most of the polls. The real issue seems to be that some of the vote on the Left has gone to the Greens, (which is promptly ignored due to being a third party) and most of the vote on the right has consolidated around National. (as happened last election) Overall, the left has lost about two points since 2005- which is very different from the way political commentators are framing things.
It’s also really important to note that it really doesn’t matter whether National gets more votes than Labour- Labour has shown it can negotiate much better with minor parties. National pretty much has to ensure that it and Act have a majority of the party vote between them to win. (And that’s contingent on the Maori Party not having too large an overhang or with UF/NZF getting through and dealing with National) In that respect, National is barely scraping through on current polling.
Constantly talking about the gap between the two main parties ignores the realities of MMP. 🙂
You don’t get it I don’t want to argue “the game” with you because it’s like arguing with mormons. Easy to win but why would you put yourself through it? Look bro, your politics seem sound and you’re obviously not a moron. Why not talk about something of value? It seems such a terrible waste as it stands…
Running the latest Roy Morgan poll through the calculator, assuming NZF, UF, and Act all get electorates and that the Maori Party scoops all the Maori electorates, here’s what I get:
National would not be able to govern without the support of either the Maori Party or NZF- (Act doesn’t tip the scale either way) both of which are very unlikely and potentially unstable coalition partners for National. Of course, for Labour to be Government, it would need the Progressives, Greens, Maori Party, and NZF. Which would be hard to cinch too.
All in all- it’s really, really close right now, and that’s before we consider the fact that polls traditionally favour National, and whether there’ll be any weather changes before the election.
Ari: This is a good point, though the first bit depends heavily on which polls you believe.
There’s a fair bit of research on an idea of the `authoritarian personality’ which claims to explain why `the left’ tends to fragment and `the right’ tends to agglomerate – which is what you identify here. The argument roughly goes that people on `the right’ are more inclined to hold the line and allow their own needs to be subsumed by a greater force, while those on `the left’ are more inclined to be tolerant of difference and to co-operate while remaining separate. I’m not sure how much I buy the `authoritarian personality’ line, and I certainly don’t agree that National supporters should be tarred with an `authoritarian’ brush, but it seems a handy explanation.
Robinsod: People being unwilling to analyse `the game’ is one reason why National are ahead: the government has singularly failed to control the short-term political agenda. This is also the reason National looked like winning in 2005: Orewa set the agenda and the government struggled to respond.
HS- in that poll I believe he was at 4 or 4.5%. If John Key is slippery, we’re going to need a new, much stronger word for Winston. It looks like he may be back again for 2008 at the moment- whether by running in Tauranga again or through picking up some extra points in the party vote before the election.
Lew- that analysis sounds like a good general guide to me. (although the Left violated it a bit in 2005- but that election was essentially a “race to the centre” that squeezed out all the minor parties) I’d probably frame it more as right-wing voters being more conservative and looking for collective wisdom, while left-wing voters tend to vote based on ideas/ideology and thus tend to split a bit more.
edit: and as for your later comment, there was a lot of talk along those lines at Drinking Liberally- that Labour was giving out bullet points of its achievements in true pre-election style while National was coasting along playing the game with emotive politics.
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Hi,Today I mainly want to share some of your thoughts about the recent piece I wrote about success and failure, and the forces that seemingly guide our lives. But first, a quick bit of housekeeping: I am doing a Webworm popup in Los Angeles on Saturday May 11 at 2pm. ...
It is hard to see what Melissa Lee might have done to “save” the media. National went into the election with no public media policy and appears not to have developed one subsequently. Lee claimed that she had prepared a policy paper before the election but it had been decided ...
Open access notablesIce acceleration and rotation in the Greenland Ice Sheet interior in recent decades, Løkkegaard et al., Communications Earth & Environment:In the past two decades, mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet has accelerated, partly due to the speedup of glaciers. However, uncertainty in speed derived from satellite products ...
Buzz from the Beehive A statement from Children’s Minister Karen Chhour – yet to be posted on the Government’s official website – arrived in Point of Order’s email in-tray last night. It welcomes the High Court ruling on whether the Waitangi Tribunal can demand she appear before it. It does ...
Mr Bombastic:Ironically, the media the academic experts wanted is, in many ways, the media they got. In place of the tyrannical editors of yesteryear, advancing without fear or favour the interests of the ruling class; the New Zealand news media of today boasts a troop of enlightened journalists dedicated to ...
It's hard times try to make a livingYou wake up every morning in the unforgivingOut there somewhere in the cityThere's people living lives without mercy or pityI feel good, yeah I'm feeling fineI feel better then I have for the longest timeI think these pills have been good for meI ...
In 1974, the US Supreme Court issued its decision in United States v. Nixon, finding that the President was not a King, but was subject to the law and was required to turn over the evidence of his wrongdoing to the courts. It was a landmark decision for the rule ...
Every day now just seems to bring in more fresh meat for the grinder.In their relentlessly ideological drive to cut back on the “excessive bloat” (as they see it) of the previous Labour-led government, on the mountains of evidence accumulated in such a short period of time do not ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Megan Valére SosouMarket gardening site of the Itchèléré de Itagui agricultural cooperative in Dassa-Zoumè (Image credit: Megan Valère Sossou) For the residents of Dassa-Zoumè, a city in the West African country of Benin, choosing between drinking water and having enough ...
Buzz from the Beehive Melissa Lee – as may be discerned from the screenshot above – has not been demoted for doing something seriously wrong as Minister of ...
Morning in London Mother hugs beloved daughter outside the converted shoe factory in which she is living.Afternoon in London Travelling writer takes himself and his wrist down to A&E, just to be sure. Read more ...
Mike Grimshaw writes – The recent announcement of the University Advisory Group, chaired by Sir Peter Gluckman, makes very clear where the Government’s focus and priorities lie. The remit of the Advisory Group is that Group members will consider challenges and opportunities for improvement in the university sector including: ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
Te Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, and Mema Paremata mō Tāmaki-Makaurau, Takutai Tarsh Kemp, will travel to the Gold Coast to strengthen ties with Māori in Australia next week (15-21 April). The visit, in the lead-up to the 9th Australian National Kapa haka Festival, will be an opportunity for both ...
The Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...
The coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...
The Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...
The Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...
The new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...
Whānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...
Racing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...
Assalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...
Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...
Hundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...
Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...
Distinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
Mai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...
Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...
Associate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...
Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today. I am delighted ...
The Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...
New Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...
Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...
The Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...
“China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Albanese government will introduce legislation to ban deepfake pornography and provide more funding for the eSafety Commission to pilot age-assurance technologies. The contribution of internet sites to gender-based violence was one major issue ...
Average ordinary time hourly earnings, as measured by the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES), increased 5.2 percent in the year to the March 2024 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. Annual wage cost inflation, as measured by the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dimitrios Salampasis, FinTech Capability Lead | Senior Lecturer, Emerging Technologies and FinTech, Swinburne University of Technology Clem Onojeghuo/Unsplash In the digital era, the job market is increasingly becoming a minefield – demanding and difficult to navigate. According to the Australian Bureau ...
As of the March 2024 quarter, we can now look back on 20 years of data related to youth not in employment, education, or training (NEET), as collected by the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS), according to figures released by Stats NZ today. "The ...
Thousands of workers attended public events in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch today to celebrate International Workers’ Day (May Day), but union representatives are urging caution and vigilance over the Government’s blatantly "anti-worker" ...
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in the March 2024 quarter, compared with 4.0 percent in the previous quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. ...
The PSA is warning the Government that the sensitive information of New Zealanders held by various agencies will fall into the wrong hands if the latest round of proposed cuts goes ahead. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Talitha Best, Professor of Psychology, CQUniversity Australia Victoria Rodriguez/Unsplash How do sugar rushes work? – W.H, age nine, from Canberra What a terrific question W.H! Let’s explore this, starting with some of the basics. What is sugar? ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karinna Saxby, Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne MART PRODUCTION/Pexels Increasing income support could help keep women and children safe according to new work demonstrating strong links between financial insecurity and domestic violence. ...
ANALYSIS:By Olli Hellmann, University of Waikato When New Zealanders commemorate Anzac Day today on April 25, it’s not only to honour the soldiers who lost their lives in World War I and subsequent conflicts, but also to mark a defining event for national identity. The battle of Gallipoli against ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark A Gregory, Associate Professor, School of Engineering, RMIT University The telecommunications industry faces a major shakeup following the release of the post-incident report on last November’s 12-hour Optus outage. Telecommunications companies will have to share more information with customers during future ...
Welcome to The Spinoff Bookseller Confessional, in which we get to know Aotearoa’s booksellers. This week: Eden Denyer, bookseller at Unity Books Auckland.Weirdest question/request you’ve had on the shop floorA mother came in looking for anything we might have on Alaskan bison as that was her little boy’s ...
NZCTU Economist Craig Renney said new data released by Statistics New Zealand shows the need for Government to act now, with unemployment rising from 3.4% to 4.3%. ...
The outpouring of anger over Maiki Sherman’s hyperbolic presentation of this week’s ‘nightmare’ poll is itself an overreaction, argues Stewart Sowman-Lund. Politicians love nothing more than to pretend they don’t care about polls. This week, deputy prime minister Winston Peters said he didn’t give a “rat’s derriere” about a TVNZ ...
Asia Pacific Report Ngāti Kahungunu in Aotearoa New Zealand’s Hawkes Bay region has become the first indigenous Māori iwi (tribe) to sign a resolution calling for a “ceasefire in Palestine”, reports Te Ao Māori News. Reporter Te Aniwaniwa Paterson talked to Te Otāne Huata, who has been organising peace rallies ...
By Dale Luma in Port Moresby “We want grants and not concessional loans,” is the crisp message from Papua New Guinea businesses directly affected by the Black Wednesday looting four months ago. The businesses, which lost millions after the January 10 rioting and looting, say they need grants as part ...
Happy May Day. Join a union. Q: What’s worse than a staff break room where the only place to sit and have a cup of tea is on a teetering stack of old pornography magazines? A: Your boss replacing the magazine stacks with chairs that are “heartily encrusted with ...
By Koroi Hawkins, RNZ Pacific editor Former opposition leader Matthew Wale has been announced as the second prime ministerial candidate ahead of the election in Solomon Islands tomorrow. He will face off against former foreign affairs minister Jeremiah Manele, who was announced by the Coalition for National Unity and Transformation ...
We get but one birthday a year – why not make it last as long as possible by scheduling as many meals with friends and family as you can? This is an excerpt from our weekly food newsletter, The Boil Up. How do you celebrate your birthday? Do you celebrate at ...
A Koi Tū discussion paper released today proposes sweeping changes to New Zealand’s media industry. The principal’s key author, Gavin Ellis, explains how journalists have a key role to play in making others value their role in society. This is an abridged version of a piece first published on knightlyviews.com ...
The Government’s spending cuts are again targeting support for Māori with proposed reform of the agency charged with advising on Māori wellbeing and development. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Douglas, Honorary Senior Lecturer, UNSW Aviation., UNSW Sydney The history of budget jet airlines in Australia is a long road littered with broken dreams. New entrants have consistently struggled to get a foothold. Low-cost carrier Bonza has just become the industry’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rosalind Dixon, Director, Gilbert + Tobin Centre of Public Law, UNSW Sydney Australia is finally having a sustained conversation about violence against women and what we can do about it. It is more than time. Australian women and girls continue to experience ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Duckett, Honorary Enterprise Professor, School of Population and Global Health, and Department of General Practice and Primary Care, The University of Melbourne stockfour/Shutterstock Preliminary bulk billing data released this week shows a 2.1% rise in bulk billing up to March. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Schulz, Senior Lecturer, University of Adelaide Australia is once again grappling with how we can stop gendered violence in our country. Protests over the weekend show there is enormous community anger over the number of women who are dying and National ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University AnastasiaDudka/Shutterstock What if the government was doing everything it could to stop thieves making off with our money, except the one thing that could really work? That’s how it ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erin Harrington, Senior Lecturer in English and Cultural Studies, University of Canterbury The Conversation It seems to be a time of old favourites. This month our experts have recommended two new seasons – the second season of Alone Australia (although ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland A bright Eta Aquariid meteor photobombed this photo of comet C/2020 F8 (SWAN) in May 2020.Jonti Horner Meteors – commonly known as shooting stars – can be seen on any night of the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Flannery, Honorary fellow, The University of Melbourne Shutterstock Current concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in Earth’s atmosphere are unprecedented in human history. But CO₂ levels today, and those that might occur in coming decades, did occur millions of years ago. ...
Winston Peters has been keen to dismiss speculation on our involvement in Aukus but will give a speech tonight on the direction of our foreign policy, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Patrick Usmar, Lecturer in Critical Media Literacies, Auckland University of Technology Getty Images With the coalition government’s ban of student mobile phones in New Zealand schools coming into effect this week, reaction has ranged from the sceptical (kids will just get ...
Hospitals around the country are not allowed to make a single hiring decision without the approval of Te Whatu Ora's head office, including for cleaners and administration staff. ...
A new report on protecting journalism and democracy in New Zealand recommends a levy be charged on global platforms like Facebook and Google to fund media firms undertaking public interest reporting. It also calls for the reinstatement of a powerful Broadcasting Commission to distribute public funding for journalism and other ...
On International Workers' Day, also known as May Day, the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions Te Kauae Kaimahi and the wider union movement are celebrating the proud history of the labour movement during a tough time for working people. ...
From bills to beards, a walk through the former Green co-leader’s time in politics. After close to a decade in politics, James Shaw is preparing to bid farewell to parliament. Tonight will see the former minister deliver his valedictory address, certain to be a speech filled with Shaw’s trademark wit ...
Two months ago, MPs unanimously voted to give themselves a week off in Efeso Collins’ honour. On Tuesday, most were too busy to give even an hour of their time. The day Fa’anānā Efeso Collins died, parliament felt different. In a building that operates at a breakneck pace, everyone stopped ...
India’s election involves hundreds of millions of people and is a months-long affair. Here’s how voting works and what’s at stake.The biggest-ever election in world history started on April 19, with more than 10% of the world’s population eligible to vote. Elections in India, the world’s most populous country ...
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Comment: Journalists are very good at telling other people’s stories, but they fall well short when writing about their own profession. Perhaps that is why it is so undervalued. Every successive poll on the public’s attitude toward journalism is more alarming than the last. In the last month we have ...
Opinion: A young Māori woman and her Pacific partner arrive at their local hospital by ambulance. She has gone into labour at just under 24 weeks, but the couple haven’t recognised the symptoms – and don’t know the risks of premature birth for their baby. By the time they arrive, ...
Behind closed doors, NZ First will be arguing fiercely against any watering down of the ministerial decision-making powers in the Bill The post Bishop backtracks after fast-track backlash appeared first on Newsroom. ...
Emotional scenes played out in the Invercargill courthouse on the first two days of the coronial inquest into the death of Gore toddler Lachlan Jones, in which the boy’s mother was accused of disposing of her son’s body. The second season of Newsroom’s award-nominated podcast The Boy in the Water ...
Opinion: The impression from the carpark is very inviting. The area is well fenced but barred so there is easy visibility of loved ones. Inside, the spaces are welcoming and clean and staff are friendly and clearly comfortable. I am greeted by ‘Kim’. She has worked here for three years, ...
After the Christchurch earthquake, the then-national civil defence boss compared his experience to “putting a team on the rugby field who have never ever played together before”. Now, eight years later – and following a damning inquiry into the emergency response of cyclones Gabrielle, Hale and the Auckland anniversary weekend floods – ...
“I had just come off the end of a major robbery case which I had been working on for six months when I got a call on the afternoon of September 1, 1992, that some remains had been found at a building site in Devonport, so I drove over with ...
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That’s so funny. Haven’t laughed so much since I read one of Redbaiter’s pieces a couple of days ago.
thing is, he has got about 5 months or so to practice…
He’s had over a year and still shows no sign of having any new ideas on tax – he tries to avoid all detail and when pressed it comes out as same old national – lower tax on the wealthy, pay for it by cutting the social wage.
The Grand Strategy of not leaving Labour, Greens and ACT much time to poke holes in it I guess.
That’s a pretty crappy strategy. It means you think your ideas are so flimsy that much time out in the open and they’ll be ripped apart.
But it is the new strategy. ‘small-target’ they call it, you know you’ll be shot to pieces if you say anything of substance so jettison most of your policies (flip flop and adopt the Left’s) and refuse to give anything of substnace on what little remains.
Of course, it depends on the media letting you get away with it.
We’ll see I suppose…I really don’t see them withstanding the journalists for that long, when they’ve already started on it (see campbell, Paul Henry and I think Plunket)
edit: on TAX that is. Surely there will be more policy announcements as the year goes by.
I think it’s a wise strategy in the current climate of anti-Clark anti-Cullen sentiment. Key and National don’t have to be anything at this point: all they have to do is not be the status quo.
The government’s strategy should be to attack them on these grounds with a view to flushing policy out into the open. I do hope for their sakes that Key and English and co. are doing plenty of work behind the scenes, because playing this strategy means that when you come out with policy, it had better be damned good policy.
L
Don’t worry Lew all will be in order when needed.
The latest RM poll makes poor reading for labour also.
49 – 35 which is status quo for that poll. No traction at all after Mickey C threw the kitchen sink at the budget…
mike. that’s the silliest comment of the day. The poll was taken before the Budget – May 5-18.
Lew. it might be a successful stategy but is it a moral or desirable one in a democracy?
Mike: From http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4295/ – “This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 912 electors between May 5-18, 2008.”
We’ll have to wait until the next poll to see how the budget changed matters.
As it happens things don’t look too bad for the government. With the Maori Party, Greens and Progressive they’re within striking distance. That’s MMP for ya.
L
yes you are right Lew – the radio Live news implied it was after the budget but obviously not. Still I doubt Labour will get a sustainable lift all the same.
Steve: A much deeper question, which I think I’ve already answered in another thread. I don’t like it and I don’t think it promotes political openness, but I’m not sure I’d call it immoral. It’s hard to say whether I’d support a party whose policy (as much as I could figure it out) I agreed with if they played this strategy – on the one hand it’s smart play, and smart actors tend to achieve more than dogmatic actors. On the other, it seems like poor form to reward behavior whcih could be used for such potentially cynical purposes.
That said, it’s the nature of the game. Do you want your side to win, or do you want it to lose nobly?
L
“it might be a successful stategy but is it a moral or desirable one in a democracy?”
Nope, THAT is the silliest comment of the day. When was the last time morality played a part in politics? I think you’re in the wrong century SP…
No, it isn’t a smart strategy.
“We’re still working on a tax policy” was fine. “We do have a policy but we’re not telling you yet” is not.
But John Key’s natural instinct is to tell people good news. He talks about “north of $50” because that’s what people want to hear. He talks about bigger and better tax cuts. It’s no longer a vague aspiration, it’s now a concrete promise. He can’t stop himself.
The point is: the more he does this, the more it sounds as though National DO have a policy, and they’re just not telling us. The public don’t like that.
The more Key talks about tax cuts, the more he invites further questioning, and he can’t/won’t answer the inevitable questions. What’s more, as an inexperienced politician, he’s liable to give different answers (he gave several last week), which then become National policy, in the public mind. And so it continues, with Key looking more and more evasive and confused.
Watch National switch to different topics this week. They have lost the advantage on this one now.
“The point is: the more he does this, the more it sounds as though National DO have a policy, and they’re just not telling us.”
What’s the problem? he said it will be rolled out in detail in plenty of time for people to digest it before the election.
I think its smart politics – the economy is only getting worse. the longer he leaves it the greater the appetite for meaningful cuts.
Mike, if you think the public/media are going to spend the next 4 to 5 months saying “OK, no problem, tell us later, whenever you’re ready John”, every time Key talks about tax cuts, then you’re sadly mistaken.
Politics 101: don’t reinforce negative perceptions. “Slippery” is one, and Key is reinforcing it.
Mike: what exactly is a meaningful cut? Key has attempted to put a number on it, and currently the most an interviewer has got out of him is ‘north of fifty dollars’.
However, I believe the polls will continue in Nationals favour, Labour budget aside, until something concrete is announced. At that point I’m really not sure what will happen, as it probably depends on how well the policy is dressed.
Almost any person answering a poll at the moment will not pick Labours guaranteed $16/week (or whatever it may be for them) over Nationals pledged $50. Once the detail is out, that might change.
National obviously have plan for rolling out the big policy and good on them for sticking to it.
They are making sure they set the agenda not labour or the media.
Mike, if you think National are now setting the agenda you must have spent the last week in a cave.
gobsmacked: “Mike, if you think National are now setting the agenda you must have spent the last week in a cave.”
You’re dead wrong about this. The agenda has already been set: it’s tax cuts, cutting waste, parity with Australia, and a change. Everything in the government’s recent policy, including the budget, is a response to this.
“Politics 101: don’t reinforce negative perceptions. “Slippery’ is one, and Key is reinforcing it.”
As long as he sees the tipping point and moves before it, this probably won’t harm him – presuming he has enough `wow’ policies to justify the wait. It’s risky but not stupid as you claim.
L
Lew
Given that National’s (official) platform is very different from their last one, I’d suggest the agenda has been absolutely set by Labour (and partly, Winston).
Time for a change? Change what?
“North of fifty dollars” really depends on what way you think is up. Based on his current performance of flopping everywhere like a fish out of water, Key probably means that south is up. ie Less than fifty dollars.
It is either that or hocking the kids future with government debt to sustain the local economy. The current economic climate doesn’t indicate that is something we should do yet – have to have a substantial sustained increase in unemployment first. But it is something that government should keep in reserve. Using it to get yourself elected will cause a hell of backlash from the people that have been paying for the excesses of the Muldoon government for decades.
The other alternative is to cut expenditure. Same kind of problem. To do it in the short term required for the expectations that the Nat’s have raised, requires slash and burn in government. We’ve seen that before in the 90’s. It is a excellent way to start a long-term recession. You cannot get older people to vote for it.
You can shift expenditure over a couple of terms but not massively in the next 3 years. Max would be in order of billions, not 10’s of billions. So there isn’t a lot of room for the Nat’s to move. They may be able to add a chewing gum taxcut next year on top of what goes through in october, but that is about it.
I think that we’ll have to add a whole new maneuver to the political lexicon this year. “Advancing into the future while back-pedaling furiously”.
It is going to be a massive Houdini act by Key and English. And it is going to be really funny to watch.
National have been hoist by their own petard. They, along with the tax cut lobby that gets virtually a fee ride in the middle class media, has created a level of expectation on tax cuts that they simply will not be able to meet. Single people in the $65,000-$85,000 seriously expect tax cuts in the order of $100-120PW and singles below that expect a minimum of $50PW from National. The only way National could possibly achieve these sorts of cuts for the middle class is either take the money from low & middle income New Zealanders or slash core government spending or borrow heavily, or more like a combination of all three. Key is already backing off promising huge tax cuts but I think it is to little, to late. National has been a single issue party for three years on this and they can’t turn the ship around so easily. The expectation they’ve created is sky high and if they don’t deliver they risk a huge backlash.
The credibilty issue still sits with Labour. 8 years of nothing (forget WFF the benefit)It’s obvious to all but the simplist of people that Labopur have only cut taxes to remain in power
National have stated repeatedly that it is a priority and there will be ongoing tax relief. Thats the difference.
gobsmacked: `Given that National’s (official) platform is very different from their last one, I’d suggest the agenda has been absolutely set by Labour (and partly, Winston).’
This isn’t what I mean, and isn’t what you seemed to mean when talking about `the last week’. I agree that Labour’s greatest achivement has been establishing a bunch of their core policies as political orthodoxy, but National are firmly in control of the media agenda leading into the election.
Parties that successfully control the short-to-medium-term tactical agenda don’t fall 15-30% behind in the polls. Labour might claim to have been playing an underdog game to give National a false sense of confidence, but I think that’d be the sort of glib explanation only a true party hack could believe.
toms: “National have been hoist by their own petard.”
This seems to be the fashionable phrase of the year. I think it’s Labour’s intention that this be the case, but it’s far too early to call it so as yet.
AG: I agree.
L
Captcha: `candidacy boxing’. Yes, please!
Lew – I like the fact that you seem so sure of how the game is played. You seem to treat it as an exact science and phrase your statements as undeniable fact I particularly like the way you use phrases such as “short-to-medium-term tactical agenda”. Would you like to explain to we lesser folk exactly how you define “short-to-medium-term tactical agenda”? Because from where I sit it looks like a pretty nebulous phrase…
gobsmacked – I think you’re right about it being the wrong strategy. It was possibly ok until the Budget. Now voters are expecting to be able to compare he beginnings of two policy plans. The media are clearly tiring of National’s ‘style over substance’ approach too. I’ll post a collection of comments shortly. The next questions might be “do they even have any policy?” rather than “what aren’t they telling us?”.
Robinsod: Sure thing. Terms: agenda: what people think about (not what people think). Tactic: action taken toward the achievement of a specific goal. Strategy: series of actions taken towards the achievement of an more significant, longer-term goal.
National controls the `leading up to the 2008 election’ agenda, and that is a tactical, rather than a strategic, advantage. If they get into power they get the opportunity to begin implementing strategy. The government, on the other hand, controls the long-term strategic heights, having established as status quo a lot of things New Zealanders know and love – interest-free student loans, WFF, KiwiBank, etc. Even if National’s tactical moves to win the election pay off, they’ll still have their task cut out either working around or dismantling these.
I don’t mean to imply that this is an exact science. It’s manifestly not; this is just my read on it, but I think it’s good. If you don’t, I’m happy to debate it – but I don’t have a lot of time for unjustified `I reckons’ and wishful thinking, which makes up a lot of what I see.
L
From where I sit, Lew you’re engaged in a whole lot of “unjustified `I reckons'” but you posit them as if they were fact.
Robinsod: If you can make any actual argument against them other than `from where I sit’ you’re welcome to do so. As it stands it just looks like you don’t understand the terminology or the explanation, don’t agree with what I’m saying, or both, but aren’t willing or able to explain why.
L
Don’t worry Lew they tend to turn feral on you once their argument is lost.
Lew – I can’t be bothered arguing point by point because the parameters of the argument you want to have are nothing more than punditry bingo in which all sorts of conclusions can be drawn using all sorts of evidence. I get tired of you phrasing your comments as if you are giving indisputable expert advice. Especially when you are seriously off the mark so often. You seem to believe you are above the game looking down on it objectively. What you don’t understand is that this is just your shtick.
Frankly Lew? Your comments bore the shit out of me and they inevitably drag interesting threads into dull circular arguments about how “the game” works (which, by the way, is the worst kind of political naval gazing). Try making a comment about policy or something with substance. Please.
Mike – go fu*k yourself. You’ve never won an argument in you life. Principally because you are too dumb. You should get back to work and stop stealing your employer’s time.
Robinsod: We’ve been down this track before.
If you want to argue against what I write and how `off the mark’ I am, then bring it on.
If you can’t be bothered then please – don’t be bothered.
L
Captcha: `rejoicing press’.
Sod, can you go even a day without attacking other commenters? I know you don’t like people and all but can you focus your criticism on the arguments rather than the people making them?
Just a point Lew- Labour didn’t “fall behind”, National consolidated the centre-right vote and leapt ahead. Labour support is actually pretty close to what it was last election in most of the polls. The real issue seems to be that some of the vote on the Left has gone to the Greens, (which is promptly ignored due to being a third party) and most of the vote on the right has consolidated around National. (as happened last election) Overall, the left has lost about two points since 2005- which is very different from the way political commentators are framing things.
It’s also really important to note that it really doesn’t matter whether National gets more votes than Labour- Labour has shown it can negotiate much better with minor parties. National pretty much has to ensure that it and Act have a majority of the party vote between them to win. (And that’s contingent on the Maori Party not having too large an overhang or with UF/NZF getting through and dealing with National) In that respect, National is barely scraping through on current polling.
Constantly talking about the gap between the two main parties ignores the realities of MMP. 🙂
You don’t get it I don’t want to argue “the game” with you because it’s like arguing with mormons. Easy to win but why would you put yourself through it? Look bro, your politics seem sound and you’re obviously not a moron. Why not talk about something of value? It seems such a terrible waste as it stands…
Running the latest Roy Morgan poll through the calculator, assuming NZF, UF, and Act all get electorates and that the Maori Party scoops all the Maori electorates, here’s what I get:
Act: 1
Greens: 9
Progressives: 1
Labour: 42
Maori: 7
National: 58
New Zealand First: 5
United Future: 1
(Majority: 63 seats, Total: 124 seats)
National would not be able to govern without the support of either the Maori Party or NZF- (Act doesn’t tip the scale either way) both of which are very unlikely and potentially unstable coalition partners for National. Of course, for Labour to be Government, it would need the Progressives, Greens, Maori Party, and NZF. Which would be hard to cinch too.
All in all- it’s really, really close right now, and that’s before we consider the fact that polls traditionally favour National, and whether there’ll be any weather changes before the election.
Ari: This is a good point, though the first bit depends heavily on which polls you believe.
There’s a fair bit of research on an idea of the `authoritarian personality’ which claims to explain why `the left’ tends to fragment and `the right’ tends to agglomerate – which is what you identify here. The argument roughly goes that people on `the right’ are more inclined to hold the line and allow their own needs to be subsumed by a greater force, while those on `the left’ are more inclined to be tolerant of difference and to co-operate while remaining separate. I’m not sure how much I buy the `authoritarian personality’ line, and I certainly don’t agree that National supporters should be tarred with an `authoritarian’ brush, but it seems a handy explanation.
L
Ari
Is Winston back over the magical 5% ?
Robinsod: People being unwilling to analyse `the game’ is one reason why National are ahead: the government has singularly failed to control the short-term political agenda. This is also the reason National looked like winning in 2005: Orewa set the agenda and the government struggled to respond.
Ignoring it doesn’t make it go away.
L
HS- in that poll I believe he was at 4 or 4.5%. If John Key is slippery, we’re going to need a new, much stronger word for Winston. It looks like he may be back again for 2008 at the moment- whether by running in Tauranga again or through picking up some extra points in the party vote before the election.
Lew- that analysis sounds like a good general guide to me. (although the Left violated it a bit in 2005- but that election was essentially a “race to the centre” that squeezed out all the minor parties) I’d probably frame it more as right-wing voters being more conservative and looking for collective wisdom, while left-wing voters tend to vote based on ideas/ideology and thus tend to split a bit more.
edit: and as for your later comment, there was a lot of talk along those lines at Drinking Liberally- that Labour was giving out bullet points of its achievements in true pre-election style while National was coasting along playing the game with emotive politics.
Ari
Indeed Winston should never be written off …… no matter how much I would like to do so.
I’d write him off like a bad cheque if we realistically had even a chance of being rid of him.
The one drawback of MMP is that it gives power to the bloody populists like Winston 😛
Hey hs: didn’t have time to follow up this morning. But have a look at my comment on your link about the council and consultants this morning.