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Good poll for Shearer

Written By: - Date published: 6:28 am, March 22nd, 2013 - 36 comments
Categories: david shearer, labour, polls - Tags:

The Herald Digipoll does not exactly have an impressive record of accuracy, but for what it’s worth the numbers in the current poll (compared to the previous in August) are:

National is on 48.5 (up one); Labour 36.4 per cent ( up 4.4); the Greens 9 (down 1.7); New Zealand First 2.5 (down 3); Mana 0.5 (up 0.2); Maori Party 1.1 (down 0.4); United Future 0 (down 0.3); and Act 0.1 (down 0.1).

The bad news for the left is that:

much of Labour’s lift appears to have come at the expense of its potential coalition partners, NZ First and the Greens.

With respect to the much debated Labour leadership:

Mr Shearer’s ratings as preferred prime minister increased by nearly six points to 18.5 per cent – his highest ranking in the survey so far

For once John Armstrong gets it right:

Unflashy Shearer starts to turn the numbers around

Up, up and away? At last, a significant surge in David Shearer’s rating as most preferred prime minister. The popularity of the unassuming Labour leader has jumped by more than five percentage points to just over 18 per cent in today’s poll. …

The rise is vindication aplenty for Shearer’s belief that solid personal poll ratings are built on substance rather than false pizzazz and pretending to be someone you are not.

Taking the former approach meant he had a pretty torrid first year as leader and failed to convince doubters in his party that he is up to the job. Today’s poll should go some way towards silencing those critics. It will serve as justification for the Labour caucus decision to back the unflashy Shearer ahead of the more colourful, more heart-on-sleeve David Cunliffe. The poll might even have a slight band-wagoning effect as voters realise it’s now okay to like Shearer. …

But the critics will not be silenced completely. …

As the comments below will no doubt quickly prove!

Shearer’s leadership was always a bet on his background and his potential appeal as a less politicised politician. His current ratings are solid for an opposition leader at this stage of the electoral cycle, and there is a lot of dirty government water still to pass under the bridge before we vote again. Labour may win its bet yet.

36 comments on “Good poll for Shearer”

  1. Means nothing now as the poll was taken pre ‘forgetgate’.
    See how they read next month to guage public support for Shearer.

  2. just saying 2

    The rise is vindication aplenty for Shearer’s belief that solid personal poll ratings are built on substance…………………
    ………………….Shearer’s leadership was always a bet on his background and his potential appeal…

    Morning lol

    Certainly not a bet on his competence, intelligence, experience, commitment to the principles of the party, integrity, or any other matter of…. um…. substance.

  3. crying man 3

    I find it amusing that the alp will try and force a leadership spill when they’ve moved down to 33% when that’s what nz Labour has been at for 4 years.

    Election here could be less than a year away. I actually cringe trying to imagine Shearer’s performance in a campaign. ..

    • Colonial Viper 3.1

      Gillard and the ALP are going to lose the Sept election real bad. It’ll be open slather for the leadership then.

  4. Socialist Paddy 4

    Armstrong’s endorsement fills me with dread.

    He seems to be saying that if you want a National lite persuade the swinging voters to switch sort of leader then Shearer is your man despite his glaring imperfections.

    For me I would prefer a persuade the young and dispossessed to actually vote sort of leader and this sort of leader is not the National lite sort.

  5. Enough is Enough 5

    You have nailed it Paddy. When you have the Hootens and Armstrongs of this world endorsing this guy, you have to question why.

    He is the Rights best chance of maintaining the status quo when the government changes. The current system will be maintained under a Shearer government. That is why the Right are quite supportive of him.

    • Colonial Viper 5.1

      <blockquote>
      You have nailed it Paddy, E is E. When you have the Hootens and Armstrongs of this world endorsing this guy, you have to question why.</blockquote>
       
      Oh look, when the time comes and Cactus Kate and the guy from Truth starts chiming in with positive remarks, we’ll know we’re truly fucked.
       

      • Olwyn 5.1.1

        I agree. Shearer’s leadership presents a win-win situation for NZ inc. If he manages to win an election, BAU will continue unabated. If he does not, National will continue to govern. Either way, they win. Either way, the left loses. And I do not place much store on Herald or Fairfax polls. One of them, I forget which, trotted out a similarly optimistic poll after last year’s conference, accompanied by joyous accolades to Shearer’s decisiveness.

  6. Tom Gould 6

    The common factor between Labour in NZ and Labor in Oz is both their leaders have suffered constant undermining and destabilisation from a disgruntled rump without the numbers to do anything about it.

    • Socialist Paddy 6.1

      You mean Trevor Mallard has been undermining Gillard too?
       
      The guy’s powers seem to be endless!

    • quartz 6.2

      ^Labour staffer says “it’s all your fault!”.

      • the pigman 6.2.1

        Tell me about it. The way TG turns up to spit venom at LP members complaining BECAUSE WE DIDN’T WANT HIM AND WANT A CHANCE TO APPOINT A NEW PARLIAMENTARY LEADER is so sickening. It gives a prescient look into line the parliamentary wing will take when they fuck up 2014, “We were undermined by our members”.

        GTFO.

    • Daveo 6.3

      Ah, so Shearer’s only problem is the criticism he’s faced from Labour supporters, not the poor performance, lack of leadership and dodgy politics that’s sparked the criticism.

      • Transient Viper 6.3.1

        Exactly Daveo. If we just ignored Shearer’s performance, his forgetfulness, the fact he is probably hundreds of times richer than us – yet still pretends (tries to) to be a “good bloke”, then things would be alright.
        According to many here, the problem isn’t Shearer, the problem is we don’t ignore the problems with Shearer.

    • Murray Olsen 6.4

      Most of the destabilising of Gillard has been a press beatup. Now and then some weak idiot like Crean gets worried enough to do something stupid. In reality, Labor in Oz is better compared to NAct in NZ, with the LNP being like ACT/Family First/Conservatives. There is at least as much concern within the Liberals about Idiot Boy Abbott, but the media doesn’t play it up.

      To my mind, Shearer needs to be undermined and destabilised even more, before he makes Labour a party in the mould of Labor. Shearer and ABC are making the whole party a disgruntled rump, at a time when we urgently need something different and relevant.

  7. just saying 7

    Second lol.

    We have the numbers Tom, its just we’ve been prevented from having a vote.

    Shearer destabilises his position himself, every time he opens his mouth.

  8. Raa 8

    You only have to look across the Tasman to see Labour shooting itself in the foot Federally, Abbott grinning, and Cyprus suggesting that more economic instability may be ahead. It suggests that the next election might be a rush towards Abbott and Turnbull – a conservative government without the Charlie Chaplin impersonations of Key.

    The unspectacular ‘steady as she goes’ prospect of Shearer may suddenly start looking attractive.

  9. Enough is Enough 9

    So if we are going to be stuck with Mumblefuck as the leader heading into the next election on the back of the MSM endorsing him, we will need to ensure his cabinet is cock full of real lefties.

    The only way to ensure that is to party vote Green. We need 6 or 7 Green MP’s around that table to pull steer rubber armed Shearer

  10. Enough is Enough 10

    The reply function isa bit cocked up for me my last comment was in response to Olwyn

    [lprent: Drat. That must be the wysiwyg editor, which used to have a problem of that type. I will disable it. ]

    • Olwyn 10.1

      It is looking that way, Enough is Enough, though we will have to see how the land lies as the election looms closer. I do not think that the battle, either here or in Australia, is between a disgruntled rump and sensible realists, but between the grass roots desire for a leadership that embodies Labour values and the top-down desire for a leadership that is deemed acceptable by business and the MSM. These two sets of values are increasingly incompatable, and will not be made compatible by simply telling the grass roots to shut up and get in behind.  

      • Colonial Viper 10.1.1

        Labour is a centre party, sitting to the left of a right wing National. Wonder why large sections of the membership who realise this have a problem with it.

  11. ianmac 11

    This is a good poll for Labour and that is the point.
    And now that Mr Shearer as Leader is getting more exposure for good (and bad) reasons, there should be a positive spin-off within the population. (It is unlikely that the negative point scorers here would change their views. They are too entrenched.)

    • fender 11.1

      ” (It is unlikely that the negative point scorers here would change their views. They are too entrenched.)”

      It is unlikely that the negative points can be hidden from view, Shearer’s too long in the tooth.

      FIFY

    • Tony 11.2

      Yeah I’m with you – the negative views on here are entrenched. Shearer has made mistakes but he’s getting better, released good policy and a good shadow cabinet and I’ve been impressed. For some reason some contributors are expecting some sort of socialist messiah, or at least pretending to be disappointed perhaps? I can’t tell the difference between a genuine contributor and a genuine shit stirrer… At any rate, I’d love to see the economic policy of those advocating socialism – how would it work in today’s society? Perhaps some here are lamenting the fall of the Alliance and forgetting that Labour has been consistently centrist for 20+ years. Can’t turn back the clock – look forward. Or start a socialist party and see how that goes…

      • karol 11.2.1

        Tony: Yeah I’m with you – the negative views on here are entrenched.

        So you’ve been following the discussions closely then, have you?

        At any rate, I’d love to see the economic policy of those advocating socialism – how would it work in today’s society?

        If you haven’t seen the frequent discussion of alternatives on TS, then you really haven’t been following the discussions very closely at all.

        • Tony 11.2.1.1

          Karol: “So you’ve been following the discussions closely then, have you?”

          I try to. I live overseas but I spend an hour or so 2-3 times a week on this site – no doubt I do miss a bit though.

          “If you haven’t seen the frequent discussion of alternatives on TS, then you really haven’t been following the discussions very closely at all.”

          I guess not? I have just been going through the archives and seen articles about socialism from a historical perspective, but none about a socialist economic policy, which is why I genuinely asked.

          My point is, David Shearer goes up 5 points in the opinion polls and it’s followed by a bunch of moaning about a “National-lite” Labour party – a constant theme here. I genuinely wanted to know what people advocate in terms of policy, rather than vague comments that undermine his credibility. If you could point me to an article or two then I’d be happy to read them.

          I’m here because this website claims to represent the “broad” Labour movement. There are great articles and debate but an obvious lack of solidarity and constant undermining of the current Labour administration makes me question how broad TS really is.

      • Colonial Viper 11.2.2

        Tony, you don’t seem to understand that from the American point of view, NZ is already a fully socialist country, with socialised medicine and socialised accident health insurance. They can’t believe it can exist and it sounds like neither can you.

        • Tony 11.2.2.1

          ?

          Actually I do understand that – I realise the American health system is largely a privately run system based upon insurance and I saw the protests that followed Obama’s medicare bill. I have no idea how this issue relates to Shearer climbing 5 points in the opinion polls and me commenting on how negative statements quickly follow on this website.

          In comparison to Scandinavia New Zealand is not very socialist at all. I lived in Norway for a year and politicians from the area went to New Zealand to study a “neo-liberal” economy. Horses for courses – most countries would be deemed socialist compared to the states. I had to pay $55 to go to the doctor last time I was in Auckland – I was there for 15 minutes. That doesn’t really sound like a socialist health system does it? I have a working visa in the UK and I don’t have to pay anything to see the GP in London.

          Address my argument but please don’t claim to know what I do and don’t understand.

          Thanks.

  12. gobsmacked 12

    If 63% for the other guy is a good poll for Shearer, he must have very modest ambitions.

    John Armstrong’s previous Herald endorsement was for David Carter doing a good job as Speaker. Seriously. He may be the only journalist in the country to hold this view. I suggest Labour look elsewhere for good advice.

  13. aerobubble 13

    Shearer forgot to add a US bank account, where his UN pay was deposited, because in some dark recess of his mind he did not see the undue influence it may have on his parliamentary activities.

    But $50,000, no wait, $100,000 share, trusts, when Key was also opposition leader did not stop him becoming PM.

  14. xtasy 14

    Well, Key and Nats must have been truly dismal in their performance of recent, so that Shearer is up in the poll on preferred PM.

    And this poll was obviously held before the revelations of that forgotten bank account in the US.

    So let us not get too enthused and see what the next one will look like. Still, to me, there is a choice between the plague and cholera that we have for leading parties.

    I am not much impressed. And thanks for the shit MSM, to protect NatACT from criticism and investigative journalism, did you get the last cheque all right from John and Steven?

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