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How bad are National’s internals?

Written By: - Date published: 12:33 pm, November 19th, 2011 - 135 comments
Categories: brand key, election 2011, national, polls, scoundrels - Tags:

Some say the tea tapes haven’t hurt Brand Key. In fact, National is down 2% last week and those polls were largely taken before the tea tapes hit overdrive. It also takes time for impressions and media narratives to bed in. The 26th will be the first poll to really tell us how much the tea tapes have hurt. But the internals could give us a clue.

In the first 2 week of the campaign, National averaged 53.3% and 53.2% respectively in the Colmar Brunton, Reid Research, and Digipoll polls. This week, it got 51%.

That’s still enough to govern alone, sure. But with ACT all but dead and Peter Dunne with a good chance of losing, National has a very thin wedge between governing alone and not governing at all. They need at least 48%. A 2.2% fall in a week nearly halves their safety margin.

What caused this sudden fall? Logically, it can only have been the tea tapes.

So, do these polls capture the whole impact of the tea tapes? No. They can’t. Polling for all three was conducted between the 10th and 16th of November.

Here’s a timeline of events so far compared to when the polling was taking place (assumes a seventh of polling is conducted on each of the seven days)

10/11/2011 Polling starts
11/11/2011 Madhatter’s tea party
12/11/2011
13/11/2011 Knowledge of tape emerges. Key and Joyce use ‘News of the World tactics’ line
14/11/2011 Key lays Police complaint after he learns 3news has the tape. Hints that tapes contains talk of replacing Brash/’restructuring’ ACT
15/11/2011 Key makes distasteful suicide comments. NOTW victims’ lawyer call Key’s comments “cheap shot”. References to old people hinted at.
16/11/2011 Key loses his cool and storms out of press conference. Banks’ disasterious interview with Gower. Peters dominates minor leaders’ debate, slams Key. Polling ends
17/11/2011 Families of suicide victims speak out against Key’s comparison. He repeats it. Key says it’s OK to waste Police time on his complaint because they have “spare time”. Police say they will execute search warrants on media.Poll shows backlash in Epsom against Key’s endorsement of Banks. TV polls released. Peters hints at more of tape’s contents. Key refuses to engage with question of whether he talked about winning “unbridled power”
18/11/2011 Police refute Key’s statement about lazy cops, Key stands by it. Victims of crime speak out. International Federation of Journalists condemns Key. Court date set to determine whether conversation was private.

We can see that this thing began escalating well after polling was already underway. The polls were over 50% complete by the time the tea tape became big news on Monday, and the most damaging events actually took place on the 17th, after polling had ceased entirely.

In that context, it’s actually pretty remarkable that the polls show a 2% drop. And it indicates a much larger fall.

Here’s a pretty simplistic model to explain what I mean. Say National was at 53% when polling started, as it had been throughout the campaign, and lost support steadily as a result of the tea tape saga from the 13th onwards – how much would have had to lose per day between the 13th and the 16th to get a result of 51% in the poll results?

10/11/2011 53.2
11/11/2011 53.2
12/11/2011 53.2
13/11/2011 51.7
14/11/2011 50.2
15/11/2011 48.7
16/11/2011 47.2
Average 51.1

So, a 2% average fall between last week and this one may actually represent a fall of 1.5% a day this week – which takes them into an election-losing 47.2% by Wednesday.

Now, I doubt that National’s fall has actually been so big. There’s statistical noise that might account for some of the change, but, don’t forget, this isn’t 1 poll result that’s shown a fall from a steady 53% to 51% in a week – it’s the average of 3 conducted over the same period.

And, more importantly, don’t forget that the polls were finished before Key made the worst mistake so far – saying the Police had ‘spare time’ to give him special treatment, which was an insult to the victims of the 220,000 unsolved crimes last year – and before the tea tapes ceased being a mere scandal and veered towards constitutional crisis with the Police preparing to raid newsrooms and the international media reporting on us like some banana republic.

People don’t change their minds in an instant anyway. Nor do media narratives. But Brand Key has been shredded by this week, and when people go to reassess their opinions in the last week, particularly during the final two leaders’ debates – Brand Key won’t be such a powerful offset against National’s unpopular policies like asset sales. If you compare the polls to the new Massey study showing 76% oppose asset sales, that means at least 27% until now have opposed asset sales but that has been outweighed by Brand Key. That’s a lot of votes in play if Brand Key is damaged.

Then, there’s the Winston Factor. He’s gaining in the polls. From 2.3% in the 1st week, 2.9% in the second week, suddenly up to 3.5% this week. Again, this is unlikely to capture all the change. The limelight started to shine on Peters on Tuesday, the second to last night of polling. He won the minor leaders’ debate as the final 14% of the polling was being conducted. And, of course, he’s had the boost of polling 4.9% in the Herald poll, which will encourage many people who were wary of wasting their vote on him that it wouldn’t be a waste after all.

The next Fairfax poll will likely also be an incomplete picture. If it’s released on Sunday, it will have been taken from the previous Saturday through to this Friday. So, the full impact of the tea tapes will be diluted by polling conducted before the story began and while it was building.

The final polls at the end of next week may give us a better idea of the impact of the story so far, but remember there’s plenty more to come, including the release of the tape itself, which will likely happen tomorrow in the Herald on Sunday or Wednesday on TV3 (I don’t think that any serious journalist would consider it ethical to withhold this kind of information from the public just before an election).  Only on the 26th will we really know what the impact of the tapes has been.

But the parties’ internal polls would be a nice clue. National and Labour conduct tracking polls, where they survey 200 or 250 people a night and combine the previous 4 or 5 nights’ results to get results. Vernon Small today says that Labour’s internals show a “slight firming in support late in the week”, which could be consistent with a much larger change coming into the tracking poll and displacing older data.

What about National’s internals? Well, we can ask their pollster (sorry, independent commentator who is ‘affiliated with the National Party’ insomuch as their money puts food on his table) David Farrar. David won’t tell us directly. But he’s not exactly a master of bluffing either.

David’s written just 6 posts on the tea tapes. He’s tried to downplay it, attacked the media’s reporting, assisted in National’s personal attack on the cameraman, and even tried to claim it’s bad for Labour (when Labour says they want to talk about policy it’s about positioning themselves above the fray and concentrated on the big issues – they’re not sad that Key is getting the kicking of his life). David’s also been attacking journalists for their reporting of it on Twitter. The only time he’s gone off message was in his initial reaction to Key storming off from the press conference, before he got the party line.

Tellingly, David has started attacking Peters a lot. He’s devoted several recent columns on Stuff and the Herald to casting dire warnings about the return of Peters unless we all obediently vote National.

Clearly, the internal polls are telling David something.

What the polls tells us is that this election is far from over.

-Bright Red

135 comments on “How bad are National’s internals?”

  1. mik e 1

    anyone got the latest undecided vote

  2. Horizon on the 16th on undecideds

    http://horizonpoll.co.nz/page/175/six-out-of-1

    I’ve heard elsewhere the internals are not very comforting for National.
    They will pull out the big and dirty game this week, blitzkrieg style as is their wont.

  3. Lanthanide 3

    Formatting in this post is a little screwed up.

    Also I think BR should be given an author login.

  4. weka 4

    “I don’t think that any serious journalist would consider it ethical to withhold this kind of information from the public just before an election”
     
    Then why are they withholding it?

    • Lanthanide 4.1

      At the moment, so they can goad Key into making more terribly bad mistakes.

      This is the kind of coverage Key has never really had before, where the media are hostile and critical of everything he does, instead of just wishy-washy accepting everything he says without real comment.

      • weka 4.1.1

        I’m personally finding it fucking annoying. As much fun as torturing Key is, I don’t see how this serves NZ or the bit of democracy we have here. They should just publish it. Publishing on Weds would be worse than not publishing it all. 
         
        There’s also the issue of people having to cast advance votes. If we need to know what the tapes say, then they need to know that too.

  5. Lanthanide 5

    Here’s an interesting stuff story that gives a better idea behind what might be going on:
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/polls/5998662/Massey-poll-survey-gives-interesting-reading

    “For Labour supporters, the most common second choice is the Greens at 43 per cent, but note that a pretty substantial 29 per cent of Labour voters say their second choice is National, while 14 per cent choose NZ First.

    “Even more interesting is the second choice of National voters. The most common second choice of National voters is, in fact, Labour at 32 per cent. This is followed by ACT at 21 per cent of the second choice for National voters, and not far behind at 20 per cent are the Greens.”

    Dr Perry said when the second choices of National voters were combined more than 51.4 per cent had opted for a party on the Left.

    • Tom Gould 5.1

      More interesting is that “Among Maori Party voters 38.5 per cent listed Labour as their second choice, 23.1 per cent said NZ First and 23.1 per cent said Greens.” No number is published for National, but has to be 15% at the most, which sends a clear message to Tariana. Of course, as is speculated, even if the Tories get in the mid to high 40s, without lapdogs Banks and Dunne, they are screwed. Winston has ruled out a deal. Tariana is the king maker. And her voters overwhelmingly say “no” to the Tories. No wonder the Tories are in ‘blind panic’ mode? Next week these Tories will get seriously nasty. Watch for ‘no finger prints’ character assassinations, bullying, intimidation, and fake scandals.

    • Uturn 5.2

      “…but note that a pretty substantial 29 per cent of Labour voters say their second choice is National…”

      An oxymoron, surely.

      Hi, I’m a Nat/Lab voter. I like to consider the poor and then bash them down while helping them up to kick them to the ground. I also support the sale of assets while staunchly supporting state owned enterprises. I’m also keenly aware of environmental issues, drilling and mining are unacceptable until the price is right, and climate change doesn’t exist, but it will change our lives.

      I think I’ll write it off to the lies of statistics.

      • felix 5.2.1

        You seem to be assuming that:

        1) everyone is as well informed on those issues as you are, and
        2) that everyone understands both parties’ policy positions on those issues.

        I don’t think either of those are safe assumptions.

  6. Fortran 6

    weka

    The MSM in this country have no ethics, so what’s new.

  7. mik e 7

    So Stuff.co might be 51.4% right when they say ManKey visits Winton could be that next week Stuff.co headline will be visits Winston for a cup of tea as the smiling assassin looks to do a deal!
    Another Stuff up by Jinxed Keys handlers

  8. One of the Masses 8

    “But with ACT all but dead”
    – Just because something is said over & over again doesn’t make it so. A better technique would be for ALL commentators to stay silent on ACT’s demise – instead of goading National supporters in Epsom to vote tactically to keep National in power for this term & potentially the next.

    • Jackal 8.1

      Goad Nat supporters to vote for Banks? I think most of them would rather poke their eyes out.

      A great article Bright Red… I totally agree with your analysis.

    • Ari 8.2

      Epsom have changed their minds in ACT’s favour before, but that was Rodney Hide’s ACT, which was already a lot more uncomfortable for them than Richard Prebble’s ACT. I’m not sure how they’ll feel about a Banks or Brash ACT, and you shouldn’t rely on Banks winning.

  9. Jester 9

    All this made sense right up until Phil appeared on The Nation and still didn’t know any numbers and his two wingmen (the two davids) slipped the knife in betweens Phils ribs.
    Don’t get me wrong, I would hate to see Labour back in govt but part of me sympathizes with him when his two advisors have set him up so ruthlessly.

    • ianmac 9.1

      Of course John Key doesn’t need notes to refer to in answering questions because he never fronts up to be asked those questions. At least Phil does front up to the Nation. Key just refuses. And you Jester get picky about Phil?

  10. How come, then most people according to boards and blogs that aren’t political blame the media, and not national who were the victims of brad white/ambrose covertly taping key.

    • Lanthanide 10.1

      Oh please, Key is a victim now?

      If he didn’t want a publicity stunt where all the press turned up, he shouldn’t have staged one.

  11. Every Poll has in three years has National winning, do you really think all of sudden kiwis are going to turn to Goff?

    • Lanthanide 11.1

      They don’t have to “turn to Goff”. They just have to turn away from National and Key.

    • kriswgtn 11.2

      Still Thinking its FPP ?

      haha clown

      The left need sfa of the swing vote to change the outcome…..

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 11.3

      Most of it is going to Winston, some to the Greens.

    • Ari 11.4

      They have five Party options that could unseat National, (although at this stage I’d feel iffy about giving Mana my Party vote) I’m happy with any of those.

  12. But Brand Key has been shredded by this week, and when people go to reassess their opinions in the last week, particularly during the final two leaders’ debates – Brand Key won’t be such a powerful offset against National’s unpopular policies like asset sales.

    Key will do everything to trip Goff up with the numbers game again and make him look bumblingly oafish with figures. It’s not that hard to do if even Donut Garner can.

    Goff needs a good defense line he can hold. How’s this ?

    “Look John, Im not gonna lie and say i have the greatest head for facts and figures. That’s your forte. I am going to say however that i have a more than capable finance minister in the person of David Cunliffe who does, so if you, or your shonky numbers guy the Rt Honourable Bill English, would care to take up the challenge and debate him on the exact facts and figures you’re more than welcome.”

    • Anne 12.1

      Good one pollywog:
      Why don’t you email your suggested defence line to Phil Goff and to Trevor Mallard. I doubt they – or their staff – have time to read these posts and comments right now.

  13. dd 13

    Someone needs to question Key’s history as well. Explaion to NZers how he made his money.

    They also need to deal with the incorrect statment that Key gives all his pay to charity.

    • marsman 13.1

      I keep hearing that John Key gives all or most of his income to charity, is that not true? Not that it would matter to him, he’ll make a bomb once he’s finished with NZ, all those boards of directors of companies he’s given benefits to.

      • Hami Shearlie 13.1.1

        From what I remember, he claimed to give a portion of his salary to charity – a portion could be any amount, even a paltry $5 couldn’t it? The business Herald a few years ago reported that John Key didn’t have a mortgage on his house, and that he then obtained one and claimed a parliamentary allowance for it. Why would someone with $50 million do something like that?Makes one think? Couldn’t be greed could it?

        • Colonial Viper 13.1.1.1

          He donates to the Waitemata Trust.

        • felix 13.1.1.2

          It’s even more lame than that, Hami. He said he would donate to “good causes”, a piece of phrasing which leaves a lot of room for subjectivity.

          As CV notes, a “good cause” for Key might be the local food bank but might also be the local branch of the National Party.

          Typical Keyspeak, ambiguous vacuous meaningless waffle.

  14. I dreamed a dream 14

    Roy Morgan is out – http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4723/
    :( :( :(

    I surrender!

    I await 2014.

    • Jackal 14.1

      I’ve never been rung up… probably because I don’t live in Remuera.

      • lprent 14.1.1

        I have never been rung for a political poll in the last 20 years. Probably because my landline number has been unlisted for more than 20 years. I only get telemarketing from the bank and ISP provider – who know my land line.

        Lyn took a call earlier this week from digipoll (sounded like push polling for telecom from what I could hear). I asked her to check how they got the number (as per my usual policy). It was a random dial – first time ever.

        • Colonial Viper 14.1.1.1

          Elderly neighbour got rung up for a phone poll this morning. He told them his voting intentions were none of their business and hung up. And he’s hard core Labour.

    • ianmac 14.2

      Not over yet mate. Note NZF is at 3%. And a few slippage points will make all the difference.

      • Puddleglum 14.2.1

        NZF is at 3%“.

        That was an interesting result, given that all other polls released recently have NZF ‘surging’. That 3% represents a fall of 1.5% from the previous Roy Morgan.

        That possibly suggests that the latest Roy Morgan is not picking up recent movements but is weighted towards the earlier part of its sampling period (8-18 Nov). That would be just after the ‘show me the money’ week. 

        Edit: The period was 7-18 November

        • Colonial Viper 14.2.1.1

          The statistical noise with the small parties kills any reading of short term trends. +/- 3% margin of error (for instance) makes any result less than 10% a crapshoot.

          • Ari 14.2.1.1.1

            Yep, you can only really rely on polls to give you anything close to accuracy for Labour, National, and now the Greens.

    • ianmac 14.3

      And this poll was over 7-18 November. Only part of that time was during the tea-tape melt down. Watch that space.

    • Lanthanide 14.4

      I was at my parents for dinner on Thursday night and my dad answered the phone. He said that was some asian calling from some place called ‘roy morgan’ so he hung up on them. Pity.

    • mik e 14.5

      some where between 6%&11% undecided vote maybe more

  15. Jim Nald 15

    Maybe for him, charity begins (and gets stalled) at home and with good mates?

  16. Bronson 16

    I’m seriously considering voting for NZ First. The left will need his 6 seats for confidence and supply to form a government.

    • ianmac 16.1

      Just been discussing by Skype with my wife who is overseas for her Special vote. She is also considering NZF for no other reason than as a strategic vote. My loyalty is for Phil Goff but it might be a help for him to have NZF as a means of not having Key in the front seat.

      • fmacskasy 16.1.1

        Ianmac – At this stage, voting for practically any party (Greens, Labour, Mana, Maori, or NZ First) is a good option.

        I’ve taken ‘+1′ on board, and have encouraged two non-voters to enroll and cast special votes. There are two other people living adjacent to us, who have probably never voted. After talking with them, they are now very keen to do so. (They are part of the “Invisibles” to polling – no landline.)

        • Akldnut 16.1.1.1

          Over the past 2 weeks I’ve been in overdrive making sure that everyone I meet and work with go out to vote.

          Of the 500 or so (which includes the people at the mall) about 15 have said they were enrolled but didn’t vote in the last election and will now go in to vote for Labour or a left party. (surprised by the amount who indicated Mana)
          I have also enrolled about 20 new voters who will also be doing the same – the majority going to Labour.

          My pitch is that the number people who didn’t vote last election are the ones who are allowing National to govern, so a non vote is as good as a vote for them.

        • Colonial Viper 16.1.1.2

          Yeah but voting for NZ1 and getting them over the line gets ~6 MPs into Parliament versus zero if they don’t make it.

    • Lanthanide 16.2

      Winston is probably not going to give confidence and supply to either party, he’ll just Abstain.

      • mik e 16.2.1

        Got a bottle and cigar this is just posturing like key won’t do a deal he’ll be only to happy to have him for confidence and supply racing minister I predict.

    • weka 16.3

      Um, remember when NZFirst went into govt with National after telling Labour supporters it would go with Labour? What makes you think Peters would choose Labour this time?
       
      Give your party vote to a party that is actually on the Left.

      • weka 16.3.1

        Not to mention that if NZF don’t reach the 5% threshhold you’ve wasted your vote and effectively given it to National.

        • weka 16.3.1.1

          And the fact that Labour and NZF can’t form a govt, and NZF probably will refuse to work with the Greens. That all points to Peters choosing Nats again.

          • ianmac 16.3.1.1.1

            Weka maybe many of NZF votes will be from those who are disaffected with Act or National so…

            • weka 16.3.1.1.1.1

              I was replying to Bronson who said “I’m seriously considering voting for NZ First. The left will need his 6 seats for confidence and supply to form a government.”
               
              Does anyone think a Labour/Greens/NZF coalition is even remotely likely? Or a Labour/Greens coalition with Mana and NZF support on confidence and supply? Why would NZF even consider that?
               

              • Ari

                Why WOULDN’T NZF consider going into coalition with Labour? Their only success in parliament has been when working with Labour governments.

                Of course, even if they don’t, NZF squeaking past 5% and abstaining on confidence and supply, but weighing in on other bills may be better for parliament than it dropping out at 3.9% or whatever, especially given that they would then have the power to cancel the government whenever they liked.

                • Colonial Viper

                  National is hoping that NZ1 get 4.8% and therefore waste that much anti-National voting sentiment.

    • the sprout 16.4

      i will be encouraging some i know to vote NZF although i doubt i will myself.
      the important thing is that NZF doesn’t soak up 4.9% of wasted anti-government vote.

  17. chris73 17

    Well I still think Dunne will hold his seat, Act will win Epsom and bring in another MP (shame it has to be Brash) and National will govern.

    • Colonial Viper 17.1

      Odds are definitely still for National.

      But I reckon ACT is burnt toast.

      • chris73 17.1.1

        The voters in epsom will vote accordingly but more importantly I hope act stays because it gives a voice people who hold those beliefs (much the same as the mana party for example)

        • Colonial Viper 17.1.1.1

          If ACT don’t make the numbers, they don’t deserve to be in Parliament – same as Mana.

      • mik e 17.1.2

        ACT voters might be better voting National then in case their vote is wasted

  18. Lazy Susan 18

    Tellingly, David has started attacking Peters a lot. He’s devoted several recent columns on Stuff and the Herald to casting dire warnings about the return of Peters unless we all obediently vote National.

    Stephen Franks on RNZ yesterday morning was also targetting Peters. This is the NAct’s nightmare scenario because there are many conservative National voters who are very uncomfortable with asset sales yet can’t bring themseleves to vote Labour or Green. With Peter’s now a viable option those Nat voters have got a place to go. The Nats are rattled and Brand Key may be further damaged when the tape is released. Interesting times.

    • the sprout 18.1

      RNZ’s panel yesterday was a full-on, wall-to-wall Winston hate-fest.

      Apparently there’s no expectation of balance when the object of criticism is the PM’s enemy.

  19. Latest poll

    Greens are a tad high.

    The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows Prime Minister John Key’s National Party set for a clear victory in next Saturday’s New Zealand election with National (53%, unchanged) increasing its lead over the Labour Party (24.5%, down 1.5%). Support for the Green Party (13%, up 1%) has continued to increase while New Zealand First (3%, down 1.5%), ACT NZ (1.5%, up 0.5%) and United Future ( > 0.5%, unchanged) will all struggle to win seats in the new Parliament.

    • Scott 19.1

      Just watched the interview with the Roy Morgan CEO on Scoop where she concedes that any impact from the teapot tapes is unlikely to show up until further polling is conducted Tue/Wed/Thur next week.

  20. bruno 32 20

    Labour can thank their manky media mates for waking up Epsom voters and keeping Goff out of the news for 25 % of the election campaign.Key is on the home straight and will win by 3 lenghts.After the inquiry ,the greens will be disqualified for foul play and winstone can continue his relationship with Johnny Walker.

  21. Tazirev 21

    Have just had a call in Hamilton from someone claiming to be doing a political poll for TV3 and wanting to talk to males between 17 and 24 and 44 and 55, when I told them there was no one in those age groups here they asked where there any female voters available to be questioned??

  22. SHG 22

    Latest Roy Morgan, released today.

    National (53%, unchanged)
    Labour (24.5%, down 1.5%)
    Green (13%, up 1%)
    Winston First (3%, down 1.5%)
    ACT (1.5%, up 0.5%)
    United Future ( > 0.5%, unchanged)
    Maori (3%, up 1%)
    Mana (1%, unchanged)

    • infused 22.1

      Yep. Nationals hurting real bad guys.

      • McFlock 22.1.1

        Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that nact/uf/mp were on 59%? And that all were likely to be returned to parliament?
         
        The only questionis whether national will lose support quickly enough. For that wecan only rely on shonkey.

      • Lanthanide 22.1.2

        Most Roy Morgan polling is done early in the period where they have less strict demographic requirements.

        So again, we need more recent polls with a more recent polling period.

    • weka 22.2

      Here’s how it looks based on those %s and Maori and Mana getting 4 and 2 Maori seats respectively.
       

      Party            Party Vote     Total MPs                % of MPs

      Green Party     13.00%               17                14.05%
      Labour Party    24.50%               31                25.62%
      Mana                1.00%                 2*                1.65%
      Māori Party        3.0                     4                  3.31%
      National Party   53.00%              67                55.37%
      Totals               94.50%            121              100.00%
       

      http://www.elections.org.nz/voting/mmp/mmp-calculator.html

      • weka 22.2.1

        Except there are seven Maori seats not 6, so that’s not quite right.

        • Alwyn 22.2.1.1

          I think this assumes that Mana get one list MP.
          The other two Maori seats will, probably, stay with the Labour party.
          I know everyone tends to forget them, as neither is particularly charasmatic, but Horomia and Mahutu are still there.

  23. tsmithfield 23

    The biggest hope for the left is that National voters get complacent and don’t turn out. Problem is, the left voters probably won’t turn out either because they see it as a lost cause.

    On the other hand, I think voters would prefer an outright National government compared to a abomination of a coalition involving Labour, Greens, Maori Party, with Mana and NZ First abstaining on confidence and supply.

    • Lanthanide 23.1

      So Labour, Greens and MP. How is that worse than National, ACT, UF and MP?

      L, G and MP all have more in common than N, A, UF and MP. Tariana herself said in the minor party leaders debate that they voted against National more often than not.

      • tsmithfield 23.1.1

        What part of A, UF, and MP is there in “outright National Government”?

        • Puddleglum 23.1.1.1

          Ask Key, He seems to think there’s bits of all of those and – who knows – the Greens too in any government he’ll form.

          • tsmithfield 23.1.1.1.1

            There may well be. But if National has the outright majority they won’t need those parties to get legislation through. It will just be a pat on the head to make them feel important.

            • Colonial Viper 23.1.1.1.1.1

              It will just be a pat on the head to make them feel important.

              Ain’t that the truth.

            • Puddleglum 23.1.1.1.1.2

              So Key will want those parties to sign up to his government without offering them anything? I don’t think there’ll be many takers in that case.

              Key will have to concede some policy points to each of them – that’s what the voters need to contemplate even if National gets an outright majority. (According to Key, anyway). 

            • mik e 23.1.1.1.1.3

              No MMP election has ever produced a govern alone party so this would be a world first.

              • tsmithfield

                There is a first for anything. And we haven’t had that many MMP elections.

                • felix

                  A world first, moron. We’re not the only country using MMP.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    This might turn some stomachs. But it is important to remember that in the event of a win on Nov 26, Key and the NATs will be looking for new coalition partners to join them and to help them secure a third term.

        • Lanthanide 23.1.1.2

          My point is that the existing government is more of an abomination than the one you propose, as the existing government is comprised of 4 parties, not 3, and one of those parties votes more often against the main party than it does with the. That wouldn’t be the case under the 3-party Labour government you outline.

          • tsmithfield 23.1.1.2.1

            Key seems quite good at hearding cats. I am not so sure Goff would have that skill.

            • Alwyn 23.1.1.2.1.1

              There probably isn’t enough time for it but the way the polls are going it would be a Green government with a Labour support party.
              Incidentally, if the Greens were to get more votes than Labour which of the Green party leaders would become the leader of the opposition? There are certain roles, expressed in Legislation, that only appear to anticipate a single leader of the opposition. These are things like being briefed by the head of the SIS.
              I suppose for that one the would probably choose the one with the best memory. It would be better than having someone who didn’t even remember having had the briefing.

          • Ari 23.1.1.2.2

            Not to mention a one-party government is much more scary than a 3- or 4-party government in my opinion. When you’ve got three different parties pulling in slightly different directions, it tends to keep the government honest.

    • locus 23.2

      Your opinion that “a coalition involving Labour, Greens, Maori Party, with Mana and NZ First abstaining on confidence and supply” is an “abomination” reflects the kind of hatred of compromise and bridge-building which is destroying the NZ I’m proud of.

      Thank goodness most decent kiwis are aware of the unpleasant history of divisiveness and unfairness under FPP and will comprehensively support the retention of MMP

  24. tsmithfield 24

    Of course, Act were trailing by a similar margin or worse at the same time last year and still came through and won. I expect the Epsom Nat voters will hold their noses and vote for Banks for the electorate vote.

  25. hadenoughofpolls 25

    Are you lot along with the other political blogs going to ejaculate about polls all next week ?

    Why not just wait until Sunday week and then discuss what has happened instead of working yourselves into such a lather.

    • McFlock 26.1

      2005? And there were some issues with the polling predictions then, as well. Although I grant you it did have Hide 15% behind not 11. When was the 2005 cup of tea?
      Where can we get colmar brunton Epsom results for2008? Closest I’ve found is this, which reckoned the NBR pedicted Hide well ahead in 2008.

    • Puddleglum 26.2

      tsmithfield was referring to “last year [sic]” – i.e., 2008 election – not 2005.

    • mik e 26.3

      Dug that was September 2005 21/2 months from polling day not one week out from poll day !

      • Alwyn 26.3.1

        Where do you get two and a half months from?
        The 2005 election was on September 17 2005.
        The report quoted is presmably about a week from the election date.

  26. higherstandard 27

    If you want confirmation that Horizon polls are utter BS look no further than this.

    http://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/180/nz-first-10-

    Winston first at 10%, I don’t think so Tim.

  27. dd 28

    So how accurate do you think horizon is?

    The results this AM are pretty interesting.

    ACT New Zealand
    3.4%
    3.2%

    Conservative Party of New Zealand
    4.7%
    4.8%

    Green Party
    12.1%
    12.4%

    Labour Party
    26.8%
    27.6%

    Mana Party
    2.4%
    2.1%

    Maori Party
    1.3%
    1.2%

    National Party
    35.4%
    32.6%

    New Zealand First Party
    10.5%
    10.1%

    United Future
    0.9%
    0.9%

    Surely NZ first is too high in this? Same with conservatives?

    • tsmithfield 28.1

      Obviously garbage.

      Look at the scores for Act as well. Way too high compared to other polls. The horizon poll is a bit like the drummer who thinks the rest of the band is out of time.

      Has the Horizon poll become the new “Roy Morgan poll” for the left? I notice the Roy Morgan results aren’t bandied around here too often now, since it is no longer co-operating for the left.

      • dd 28.1.1

        For what reason do you think it would be anymore innaccurate than the other polls?

        The number of participants is a lot higher. Obviously you have to have an interest in politics to partake in the poll. But overall surely you can gauge trends through it? NZ first up-Nats down etc.

        • tsmithfield 28.1.1.1

          You seem to be questioning its accuracy yourself. There has been a lot of discussion around this poll. Basically the methodology sucks. Garbage in. Garbage out.

          • Draco T Bastard 28.1.1.1.1

            The methodology is fine, some of the actors may not be. It has the potential to be the most accurate but they [Horizon] do need to verify the validity of the people participating.

      • Ari 28.1.2

        We’ll see on election day, but that does look like it’s underpolling National and overpolling NZF and the conservatives. If something like that poll happened, we could be looking at a change in government, and while I think that’s still in the cards, I would have thought that it would have taken a while for John Key’s stuffups this election to really sink in.

    • Colonial Viper 28.2

      IMO the resuls of Nov 26 will either confirm Horizon’s polling technique – or prove finally that it is maladjusted and untrustworthy.

      • Lanthanide 28.2.1

        Yes, and I’m thinking it’ll show it to be tosh.

        Because it’s a self-selecting user base, it’s obviously a collection of people interested enough in politics to sign up for it, and to potentially distort things in their own favour.

      • higherstandard 28.2.2

        IMO the results of the election will confirm that Horizon’s polling technique is maladjusted and untrustworthy.

        In a sensible world they will go bankrupt within a couple of months – therefore I expect them to be contracted by both the government and a number of multinationals to research a number of issues.

        • Ari 28.2.2.1

          Well, there’s not so much wrong with allowing self-selectors to sign up, IF you weight them by demographics to the nation as a whole. You still might end up with the issue of the enthusiasm gap, but if you’ve got an algorithm that lets you weight overlapping categories, you can just poll people on their enthusiasm about politics too and you’re good to go.

    • Matthew Hooton 28.3

      I don’t think it is plausible that National, which won 44% of the vote in 2008, has really lost 25% of its supporters over the last three years, so that it is down to circa 33%.

      Similarly, I find it difficult to believe New Zealand First has increased its support by 146% from 4.1% to 10.1%. In 2008, NZ1 got 95,000 votes. This “poll” would have us believe the total number of votes it will get in 2011 will be more like 240,000. With some, er, natural attrition in NZ1′s voting base since 2008, I don’t see where the extra 150,000 plus votes are going to come from.

      The HoS poll this morning seems more plausible to me – see http://www.nzherald.co.nz/election-2011/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503012&objectid=10767410 – although I think National is probably a bit lower than the 56% it suggests, and the combined Labour/Green support base a bit higher than the 37.5% result they got.

      • ianmac 28.3.1

        That poll Matthew was for the “The Key Research poll, conducted for the Herald on Sunday…..”
        So not biased I hope?

      • Draco T Bastard 28.3.2

        I don’t think it is plausible that National, which won 44% of the vote in 2008, has really lost 25% of its supporters over the last three years, so that it is down to circa 33%.

        http://www.elections.org.nz/elections/resultsdata/general-elections-1996-2005-seats-won-by-party.html
        1999, National, 30.5%
        2002, National, 20.9%

        That’s a ~33% loss so it’s obviously possible.

        Similarly, I find it difficult to believe New Zealand First has increased its support by 246% [Fixed typo] from 4.1% to 10.1%.

        1999, NZ1st, 4.3%
        2002, NZ1st, 10.4%

        • Matthew Hooton 28.3.2.1

          I agree that big shifts can happen (like the ones you have pointed out) but I don’t think its plausible that they have happened in the last three years. National’s big slide from 1999 to 2002 was a result of poor leadership in National and strong leadership in Labour. NZ First’s big gain was off a 1999 election where Peters was punished for dealing with Bolger etc, and then he picked up extra centre-right votes in 2002 because of National’s failure. Of the two, I can imagine a 2008-2011 bounce back for NZ1 might be possible, but the big drop in National support over that period suggested by Horizon just doesn’t seem plausible at all. Anyway, we’ll know in five days.

      • Ari 28.3.3

        I don’t think it fits the mood this election for that large a swing that fast- I’d be ecstatic to be wrong about that, and I understand I’m saying “this doesn’t fit the mood of the populace as I’ve seen it” and that’s an incredibly subjective judgement, but that’s the best reason I can give for why the result doesn’t sit well with me.

        As for your reasoning, this sort of shift is certainly precedented, as Draco points out, to occur mostly away from National and mostly to New Zealand First. In fact, that’s practically what’s kept the party alive all this time. I actually said “owned” out loud when I read that. :P

        The Herald and Roy Morgan polls probably occured too early to catch much of the shift if there was one, so I’m thinking we won’t really have any steady polling going to the poll that matters at all.

  28. dd 29

    So is the left doomed? I guess 5 day’s is a long time in politics?…..

  29. Danny Lodge 30

    I look forward to 7 days time when the only conversation on this site will be speculation over the next labour leader…

    All you guys have to look forward to is 3 more years of online bitching….

    • fmacskasy 30.1

      Ever thought of migrating to a One Party state, Danny? They’re quite rare these days, but a few still exist for folks like you who can’t appreciate political diversity. In a century or so, we’ll have to fence off such places and maintain them as reservations…

      You can earn money from tourism, stitching blankets with slogans like “Commies R Evl” and “Better Dead Than red”, and selling them for $2 each.

      Of course, we’ll buy one or two things of you… give’em to family members we really don’t like… and life goes on in the 21st Century, and for you…

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    Labour | 19-08
  • It’s downhill from here under National
    The forecast drop in exports and predicted halving of growth shows that it’s downhill from here with National, Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker says. “Growth under this Government peaked in June and halves to two per cent in coming years....
    Labour | 19-08
  • John Key loses moral compass over Collins
    John Key has lost his moral compass over Judith Collins’ involvement with Cameron Slater and lost touch with New Zealanders’ sense of right and wrong, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “Whoever is Prime Minister there are expectations they will not...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Mana Movement General Election 2014 List confirmed
    The MANA List is now confirmed with all the candidates as below (the numbers are the respective Internet MANA rankings). Candidate, Electorate, Internet MANA List Position Hone Harawira, Te Tai Tokerau (1) Annette Sykes, Waiariki (3) John Minto, Mt Roskill (4) Te Hamua Nikora, Ikaroa-Rawhiti...
    Mana | 18-08
  • PREFU likely to confirm dropping exports
    National’s economic management will be put under the spotlight in tomorrow’s PREFU given clear signs the so-called rock star economy has fallen off the stage, with plummeting prices for raw commodity exports, Labour’s Finance spokesperson David Parker says. “Under National,...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Record profits while Kiwis face a cold winter
    The record profits by two of New Zealand’s largest electricity companies will be a bitter pill for New Zealand households who are paying record amounts for their power, says Labour’s Energy spokesperson David Shearer. “No doubt the Key government will...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Time for John Key to answer yes or no questions
    John Key’s train-wreck interview on Morning Report shows he is no longer capable of a simple yes or no answer and has lost touch with what’s right and wrong, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “John Key has become so media...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Key must clarify who signed out SIS OIA
    Yet again John Key is proving incapable of answering a simple question on an extremely important issue – this time who signed off Cameron Slater’s fast-tracked SIS OIA request on Phil Goff, said Labour MP Grant Robertson. “John Key’s claim...
    Labour | 18-08
  • Time to invest in our tertiary education system
    A Labour Government will fully review the student support system – including allowances, loans, accommodation support and scholarships – with a view to increasing access and making the system fair, transparent and sustainable, Labour’s Tertiary Education spokesperson Maryan Street says....
    Labour | 17-08
  • Labour will facilitate regional Māori economic development agencies
    The next Labour Government will facilitate the creation of regional Māori economic development groups lead by iwi and hapū to work in partnership with business and public agencies as part of its Māori Development policy. “Labour is committed to working towards...
    Labour | 16-08
  • PRIME MINISTER’S DENIAL AT ODDS WITH NATIONAL PARTY STATEMENT
    Labour’s New Zealand Council has today released an email from the General Manager of the National Party that directly contradicts recent statements from the Prime Minister in relation to the 2011 breaches of Labour Party website databases. In his stand-up...
    Labour | 16-08
  • Labour committed to a healthier NZ for all
    A Labour Government will shift the focus of the health system from narrow targets and short term thinking to make public health and prevention a priority, Labour’s health spokesperson Annette King says. Releasing Labour’s full Health policy today she said...
    Labour | 15-08
  • Time Key took responsibility for Collins
    It is well past time for John Key to take some responsibility for the misuse of power and information by his Minister Judith Collins, and follow through on his last warning to her, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “The evidence released...
    Labour | 14-08
  • Dear John, time to answer a few questions… – Harawira
    “When Cameron Slater says about Kim Dotcom ‘I have lots on him…death by a thousand cuts…wait till you see what comes out in coming weeks on that fat c***t’, you have to ask whether this is the same Cameron Slater...
    Mana | 14-08
  • MANA CANDIDATE FOR IKAROA RAWHITI OPENS UP ABOUT SUICIDE
    “This week suicide has claimed yet more lives in whanau and communities in Ikaroa Rawhiti, and my heart goes out to those who are dealing with such a tragic loss”, says MANA candidate for Te Ikaroa Rawhiti, Te Hamua Nikora....
    Mana | 14-08
  • Offshore betting in Labour’s sights
    A Labour Government will clamp down on offshore gambling websites that deprive the local racing industry of funds, Labour’s Racing spokesperson Ross Robertson says. Releasing Labour’s racing policy today, he said betting on offshore websites is a major threat to...
    Labour | 14-08
  • Key has serious questions to answer on Dirty Politics
    John Key must answer the serious questions raised in Nicky Hager’s new book which reveal examples of dirty politics that New Zealanders will be deeply concerned about, Labour MP Grant Robertson says. “Many people will be disturbed by the evidence...
    Labour | 14-08
  • Creating an inclusive society for disabled people
    A Labour Government will provide free annual health checks for people with an intellectual disability, Labour’s Disability Issues spokesperson Ruth Dyson said today in announcing Labour’s Disability Issues policy. “We will also employ another 100 additional special education teachers and...
    Labour | 14-08
  • Media Advisory – MANA name change
    This is to advise all media that on the 24th of July the ‘Mana’ party name was officially changed to ‘MANA Movement’ under the Electoral Act 1993.  The inclusion of the word ‘Movement’ in our name shouldn’t come as a surprise...
    Mana | 13-08
  • New Zealand must help in the growing Iraq crisis
    The humanitarian crisis in Iraq looks certain to get worse before it gets better,” said David Shearer Labour’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson. “New Zealand should urgently pledge increased humanitarian assistance to United Nations agencies and NGOs present on the ground....
    Labour | 13-08
  • Allegations of migrant worker rort should be investigated
    Labour is calling for an investigation into the alleged exploitation of workers at Hutt Railway workshops, hired to repair asbestos-riddled DL locomotives. Hutt South Labour MP Trevor Mallard has written to the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment asking that...
    Labour | 13-08
  • Medical and dentistry students get reprieve under Labour
    A Labour Government will restore the right of medical and dentistry students to get student loans after seven years of study because it is the right thing to do, Labour’s Tertiary Education spokesperson Maryan Street says. “Hard on the heels...
    Labour | 13-08
  • National must stop meddling with ACC before the election
    The redesign currently occurring at the Accident Claims Corporation (ACC) for sensitive claims needs to be put on hold immediately, said the Green Party today.The Green Party is concerned about work currently underway at ACC involving the sensitive claims service...
    Greens | 13-08
  • Markets slow but first home buyers still hurting
    First home buyers are hurting more than ever as the supply of affordable houses in the market dries up, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “The Reserve Bank will be happy LVR minimum deposits and rising interest rates have dampened...
    Labour | 13-08
  • Green Party celebrates MOU win on contaminated sites
    The Green Party is celebrating the announcement of a national register of contaminated sites today, and $2.5 million to start cleaning two sites up. The Green Party and the National Party agreed to include toxic site management work in their...
    Greens | 13-08
  • Emergency staff at breaking point
    The Southern DHB is so cash-strapped it is failing to fill nursing rosters, Labour’s Associate Health spokesperson David Clark says.  “Every day emergency department nurses arrive at work knowing they are likely to be carrying more than their recommended workload. ...
    Labour | 12-08
  • ACC minister fails in mission to change culture
    The latest damning report by the Auditor General shows that the ACC Minister has failed to fulfil her mission to fix the sick culture at ACC and real change will not come till a new Government is elected, the Green...
    Greens | 12-08
  • Labour’s regional development fund to support Palmerston North
    Labour will consider a proposal to develop an inland port at Palmerston North, Labour Leader David Cunliffe says. “The Palmerston North community has developed plans for an inland port which will bring jobs and economic growth to a region which...
    Labour | 12-08
  • Green Party announces priorities for Christchurch
    The Green Party has today announced its plan for a fairer, smarter and more democratic Canterbury rebuild, with a focus on smart transport solutions, restoring local democracy, and keeping Christchurch's assets.The plan sits across all of the Green Party's priorities...
    Greens | 11-08
  • Rock-star economy unplugged by China log jam
    The collapse of log prices due to oversupply in China threatens to wash the gloss off what remains of National's so-called rock-star economy, says Labour Leader David Cunliffe. “Already this year the price of milk solids has plunged by more...
    Labour | 11-08
  • Young job seekers dealt a poor hand
    National's "keep 'em poor" card for young people on a benefit is a sorry substitute for job training, Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Sue Moroney says.  The Government today announced it would extend its payment card scheme to all teen parents...
    Labour | 11-08
  • Labour – achieving change for Kiwi women
    Working towards being a world leader in eliminating violence against women and children will be a priority for a Labour Government. Releasing Labour’s Women’s Affairs policy today spokesperson Carol Beaumont said while Labour had a proud track record of achieving...
    Labour | 11-08
  • Accessible healthcare also affordable
      It is obvious from Tony Ryall’s hasty attack of Labour’s plans to extend free GP visits to older people that he hasn’t bothered to actually read the policy, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. "Mr Ryall’s response to Labour’s...
    Labour | 11-08
  • Full details of oil execs’ junket revealed
    Full details of a $237,000 taxpayer-funded oil executives' junket in 2011 have emerged.National paid the nearly quarter of a million dollars to wine and dine 11 oil executives in New Zealand during the World Cup.The trip included yachting, wine tasting,...
    Greens | 10-08
  • Steering By The Real: Chris Trotter responds to Paul Buchanan
    WHEN ACADEMICS take to blogging the rest of us best be careful. And when they offer comment on the subject of dirty politics we should all pay attention. I will always remember my history lecturer, Dr Michael Cullen’s, confident dismissal...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • Interview Between Selwyn Manning & Sean Plunket Over SIS Release of OIA...
    During a RadioLive interview between host Sean Plunket and managing director of Multimedia Investments Ltd, journalist Selwyn Manning, a fiery exchange developed after Plunket attempted to “wet flannel” the issue of whether the Prime Minister has been truthful over what...
    The Daily Blog | 22-08
  • “Even though my hours are being cut, my rent doesn’t get cut to compens...
    Fast Food = Slow Pay   Lola is a manager at a major fast food chain. Last year her employer arbitrarily cut her hours from 32 hours to anywhere between 18 and 26 hours each week. “I said I can’t...
    The Daily Blog | 21-08
  • Hate Politics has no place in NZ Politics
    I wasn’t going to write about Nicky Hagar’s ‘Dirty Politics’.  There are plenty of policy issues to discuss. Then I read the book, and what it reveals strikes at the very heart of our democracy. My overwhelming feeling is one...
    The Daily Blog | 21-08
  • Pak’nSave pull adverts from Whaleoil
    Pak n Save have replied to complaints that their adverts were appearing on hate speech site Whaleoil by deciding to block their adverts from appearing on the site. Their reply… Congratulations for Pak’NSave on making this type of ethical stand. They...
    The Daily Blog | 21-08
  • Herald Poll – Why the Greens will hit 15%
    The biggest problem for John Key is that there are swathes of National Party voters who are educated and decent people whom will be forced to read Dirty Politics out of intellectual curiosity and will be horrified by what National...
    The Daily Blog | 21-08
  • Coalition for Better Broadcasting – Dirty Politics and Dirty Media
    The Nicky Hager book is mind blowing on so many levels. The revelations of government ministers and their staff colluding with vile and hateful schemers to attack other people, is truly ugly. When the dust settles on the illegalities, immoralities...
    The Daily Blog | 21-08
  • “You just have to keep on fighting” – an interview with Metiria Turei
    We’re meeting in her office. It’s austere, though she does have a nice teapot. The view is startling. One can map the Bowen Triangle, though the teapot is still more interesting. A group of pink faced men are running across...
    The Daily Blog | 21-08
  • Taxation and Real Estate – turning housing debate on its head
    The debate about property prices in New Zealand is disingenuous. It is clear that there is a global process in which speculators are using massive amounts of unspent and borrowed money to blow bubbles in the world’s major asset markets....
    The Daily Blog | 21-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Michael Wood – Faith and politics
    In a week which has seen our collective focus shift to those who see politics as a great game to be manipulated for their own ends, it is timely to reflect on the fact that many people are in fact...
    The Daily Blog | 21-08
  • Government’s Own Guidelines Show John Key Would Have Been Informed Of SIS...
    Analysis by Selwyn Manning. INFORMATION THAT I HAVE ACQUIRED, sourced from the State Services Commission, states in black and white the tight guideline requirements that must be followed whenever the SIS informs a Prime Minister of any pending release of...
    The Daily Blog | 21-08
  • Simply Not Credible: Dr Tucker’s “clarifications” are only making thi...
    THAT DR WARREN TUCKER, Director of the Security Intelligence Service in 2011, agreed to the release of politically sensitive material – thereby intervening in an on-going contretemps between the leaders of the National and Labour parties – without receiving the...
    The Daily Blog | 21-08
  • The Donghua Liu Affair: Evidence of Collusion between the NZ Herald and Imm...
    . 1. Prologue . The Donghua Liu Affair hit  the headlines on 18 June, with allegations that David Cunliffe wrote a letter in 2003,  on  behalf of  business migrant, Donghua Liu. Four days later, on Sunday 22 June, the Herald...
    The Daily Blog | 21-08
  • Dear Canon NZ – Malevolence should induce revulsion, it shouldn’t be ce...
    Giovanni Tiso’s analysis on Slater is possibly the best in NZ… It’s been a good week for some of us. A week of feeling vindicated, offeeling galvanised. Where it goes from here will depend on several factors, some of which are largely...
    The Daily Blog | 20-08
  • 5AA Australia: After Dirty Politics Can National Provide Stable Government?
    AS WE ALL KNOW New Zealanders and Australians do not like political parties that are unstable, or can no longer assure us that they are able to provide stable government. And the big question for Kiwis as we prepare to...
    The Daily Blog | 20-08
  • SIS letter means it’s over for Key
    It’s over. I may not agree with all of Phil Goff’s positions, but you can’t question his integrity the way Slater did in Dirty Politics and not be deeply concerned that our Secret Intelligence Agency is being used for political...
    The Daily Blog | 20-08
  • who to vote for in Epsom
    who to vote for in Epsom...
    The Daily Blog | 20-08
  • The Rise and Fall of John Key – who will be the next leader of National P...
    . . It was all set to go: Teamkey would be the cult of personality that would do Stalin, Mao, Reagan, Thatcher, or any of the Nth Korean Kim Dynasty, proud.  National and it’s “Teamkey” propaganda strategy   would cash-in Big Time...
    The Daily Blog | 20-08
  • Who said Kiwis couldn’t get a fire in their bellies over an arcane intern...
    An amazing team of activists has taken the campaign on the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA) to local governments throughout the country. Their latest triumph came last Monday when the Dunedin City Council endorsed a resolution expressing concern about the TPPA...
    The Daily Blog | 20-08
  • National’s Dangerous Education Agenda Exposed
    Putting aside the dirty politics coming out of the Beehive and the right-wing blogisphere, there are some very strong signals that another term of a National Government would do even more serious damage to the public education system. The Education...
    The Daily Blog | 20-08
  • We can have clean politics and get our democracy back.
    Something is rotten in our politics and it stinks. Dirty politics has sadly become one of the defining features of this election campaign. In the light of recent revelations about the extent of nasty and disingenuous political strategies, it would...
    The Daily Blog | 20-08
  • Book burning copies of Hager’s book? The next generation of National Part...
    It seems we are getting the next generation of National Party Dirty Politics now. There are claims the Young Nats in Hamilton are buying up copies of Dirty Politics and burning them. One witness was contacted by the Waikato Times...
    The Daily Blog | 20-08
  • National Party Poetry Day Haiku
    Key’s inbox and Cam’s poison most foul, there he blows hoist by own harpoon...
    The Daily Blog | 20-08
  • Why Cunliffe will be the next PM
    David Cunliffe will be the next Prime Minister of NZ. Labour’s inclusive and positive TV adverts… …are in stark contrast to National’s team of white people powering away from the rabble of the ‘others’… …the messaging is vital and crucial...
    The Daily Blog | 20-08
  • From smiling assassin to grumpy butcher – on giving Judith Collins a last...
    After #dirtypolitics Key isn’t the smiling assassin, he is the grumpy butcher. When he said Judith had  a ‘last chance’ he meant 1 second after voting closes on 20th September. Key would love nothing more than to cut Collins loose and end...
    The Daily Blog | 20-08
  • If the National Party rowing advert was real….
    If the National Party rowing advert was real there would be more blood in the water. If the National Party rowing advert was real it would be Cameron Slater calling the strokes. If the national Party rowing advert was real,...
    The Daily Blog | 20-08
  • Cameron Slater: Zionist and political pundit
    It is hard to know where to start with right-wing blogger Cameron Slater (Whale Oil), especially after the release of Nicky Hager’s book Dirty Politics. This confirmed everything many of us thought Slater to be: a snivelling pundit who serves...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • Bryce Edwards stood down from Herald for election season??? Are the editors...
    I only found this out via twitter last night and I am still in shock. Bryce Edwards, easily the best critical thinker and news analyst the NZ Herald has has been stood down by the NZ Herald ‘for the election...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • So who’s a “conspiracy theorist” now?!
    . . As the media storm over Nicky Hager’s book, “Dirty Politics“,  and allegations over smear campaigns continue to swirl,  National’s spin doctors have given Key, Collins, and other National Party ministers a string of  phrases to use in all...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • Momentum shift
    When you are deeply immersed in a local campaign sometimes it can be difficult to see the helicopter view.   I don’t know how accurate the political polls are and have always known that things can change quickly in politics...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • Dear Toby Manhire. Bad call on backing Farrar
    Oh dear. I say this as someone who regards Toby Manhire as one of the smartest journalists/commentators/columnists this country has, and I think Toby has made a terribly dumb call here. Let’s see if Toby is still singing Farrar’s praises...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • Radio NZ apologise to me for getting it wrong
    Radio NZ have contacted me, reviewed the claim by their host that I had an advance copy of Nicky Hager’s book and they have concluded they got it wrong, they have called me and apologised and will make a statement...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Reclaim UoA – Students’ Message to Steven Joyce
    Tertiary Education – we’ve been sold a lemon  A group of 30 students attended an event on Tuesday evening about ‘the future of tertiary education’ at which the Minister of Tertiary Education Steven Joyce was slated to speak. As Joyce...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • Can someone in the media please ask the PM of NZ to categorically deny any ...
    Now we see the MO of Slater & Co, the setting up, the digging for dirt, the use of staff to dig that dirt, can the Prime Minister of NZ categorically deny any National Party staff worked with Cam Slater...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • Panic setting in for National as they realise what’s about to happen
    And the terror starts to set in. I’ve never seen blind panic like this before  and it’s spreading as the enormity of what’s about to happen starts to sink in. Hager’s book is a mere entree, Nicky’s personal ethics wouldn’t...
    The Daily Blog | 19-08
  • Hager’s Dirty Politics: what the book ultimately reveals is abuse of powe...
    Guide to the many faces of John Key Nicky’s book is now doing what I suspected it would do, create a shockwave of revulsion. Andrew Geddis over at Pundit Blog sums up this attitude best, and it’s reverberations build with every...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • Fancy taking children seriously
    Let’s see why all political parties should pay close attention to the Green Party’s policy for children. First, it is a comprehensive attempt to put children, not ideology, at the heart of family policy. Wow, children at the heart of...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • Amnesty International: Dear Azerbaijan, Stop Torture, Love Kiwi Kids
    This is a world where many adults often underestimate Generation Y. Being only a few years out of being a teenager myself, I feel I can make this statement with certainty. However, I have been the Youth Intern at Amnesty...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • GCSB meetings today in Christchurch 1pm at Uni 7pm at Cathedral
    The 2014 GCSB meetings to discuss the mass surveillance state legislation passed by this Government will be debated in Christchurch today at two different meetings. 1pm at Canterbury University bottom floor James Height Building: Chair: Bomber Bradbury Ruth Dyson – Labour Party...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • Things that 7 Sharp should probably be talking about
    Things that 7 Sharp should probably be talking about...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • Guide to when Key is lying
    Guide to when Key is lying...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • GUEST BLOG: Kate Davis – The State of the Student Nation …or is just Al...
    Students politics are dead and our student media is in terminal decline. The most disappointing thing about university is the politics, or should I say lack of? I was raised with the idea that students held the power.They were the...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • Love Lifts Us Up: Thoughts from the Green Party’s campaign launch.
    Author Eleanor Catton wants people to give their party vote to the Greens.Photo by Peter Meecham NO ONE WAS QUITE SURE how he did it. Somehow Bob Harvey had persuaded the owners of the rights to Joe Cocker’s Up Where...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • Test Stream
    width="600" height="400"> archive="http://theora.org/cortado.jar [3]" width="600" height="401">...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • LIVE STREAM: You, Me and the GCSB ChCh Public Meetings
    LIVE STREAM EVENT here at 1pm & 7pm: The 2014 GCSB meetings to discuss the mass surveillance state legislation passed by this Government will be debated in Christchurch today at two different meetings. PLEASE NOTE: TDB recommends Chrome and Firefox...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking rant on Radio Hauraki: Today,
    Jeremy Wells’ Mike Hosking on Radio Hauraki...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • How @whaledump might destroy the popular vote for National
    Dirty Politics is now creating a meltdown and National are in danger of a total vote collapse. The real threat to for National was if Nicky had all the emails released via the anonymous hacker who took them. That danger is now a...
    The Daily Blog | 18-08
  • Open letter to Radio NZ – you need to make a retraction now
    I have just sent this off to Radio NZ right now Dear Radio NZ Firstly, what a great interview by Guyon Espiner this morning with the Prime Minister. Great to see such hard hitting journalism. Unfortunately I am not contacting...
    The Daily Blog | 17-08
  • Radio NZ are lying about me
    I am getting this all second hand at the moment as I don’t bother listening to Radio NZ (except for that wonderful Wallace Chapman in the weekends) but there is a claim that Suzie Ferguson just insinuated on Radio NZ...
    The Daily Blog | 17-08
  • Farrar’s fake claim of being invaded + Slater’s claims of death threats...
    The counter spin to avoid focus on the series allegations made in Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics continues. David Farrar’s ridiculous hysterics that he was invaded and his privacy has been blah blah blah has all been reduced from computer hacking to...
    The Daily Blog | 17-08
  • Te Kuiti man imprisoned for images of young children
    A Te Kuiti man caught with pictures of children being sexually abused has been sentenced to ten months imprisonment. Sickness beneficiary Daniel James Parry, 35, appeared for sentence in the Tauranga District Court today (Friday) after pleading guilty...
    Scoop politics | 22-08
  • Japan Maritime Training Squadron visit – Open Day, Band
    • The Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force Training Squadron will make port in Auckland from Wednesday 3 September to Saturday 6 September...
    Scoop politics | 22-08
  • MP Perk Transparency Needed
    The Taxpayers’ Union is slamming the increase in taxpayer-funded entitlements for MPs and their families published on the legislation website this afternoon . Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says:...
    Scoop politics | 22-08
  • Debating the future of Auckland’s housing
    With only weeks until the General Election, Auckland’s mounting housing crisis will be put under the spotlight in an Election Debate hosted by the School of Architecture and Planning at the University of Auckland. The debate’s topic “Market forces...
    Scoop politics | 22-08
  • Let’s sort this out – Human Rights Commission
    A Whangarei woman allegedly censured for greeting customers with Kia ora can get in touch with the Human Rights Commission says Race Relations Commissioner Dame Susan Devoy. “We really need to resolve these kinds of issues. I had thought that...
    Scoop politics | 22-08
  • Aged Care Association welcomes Labour’s wages policy
    The New Zealand Aged Care Association welcomes the Labour Party’s announcement that if elected, it will raise the minimum wage for aged care workers within its first 100 days in Government....
    Scoop politics | 22-08
  • Honorary doctorate for Secretary-General of the UN
    An Honorary Doctor of Laws degree is to be bestowed on His Excellency Mr Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General of the United Nations, by the University of Auckland on Wednesday 3 September, both in recognition of his role as an international statesman...
    Scoop politics | 22-08
  • Surveillance of Mr Upul Jayasuriya
    The New Zealand Bar Association joins the International Bar Association (IBA) and other Law Societies and Bar Associations worldwide over the reported surveillance of Mr Upul Jayasuriya, President of the Bar Association of Sri Lanka....
    Scoop politics | 22-08
  • Bob Parker, China State Media and Tibet Forum
    Former Christchurch mayor was signed up to position statement without his knowledge; observed “happiness” in Tibet as Tibetan protesters elsewhere shot by security forces...
    Scoop politics | 22-08
  • “Walk the talk to reduce the wage gap”
    There’s just a few weeks left to convince the candidates of all political parties that reducing the wage gaps makes good sense....
    Scoop politics | 22-08
  • Digital Currency on the Drawing Board
    Government policies and digital currency ideas and issues will come together at three public workshops next week....
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • NZ Cycle Trail welcomes $8 million fund
    Government funding of $8 million to maintain and enhance the Great Rides of New Zealand will help ensure the trails are delivering the best possible visitor experience, says Evan Freshwater, Manager Nga Haerenga The New Zealand Cycle Trail Inc. (NZCT)....
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • Judges Comments Bonkers – McVicar
    Napier Conservative Party Candidate Garth McVicar is accusing a Judge of forgetting that he is the gate-keeper for the community and not a benevolent caregiver for law breakers. "The comments by this Judge are not just alarming, they're completely...
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • Oxfam: World must suspend arms sales to protect civilians
    As the New Zealand Government prepares to ratify the global Arms Trade Treaty, and after ceasefire talks collapsed and violence erupted yet again in Gaza yesterday, Oxfam is calling on all states to immediately suspend transfers of arms or ammunition...
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • Degrees in Picking up Rubbish
    Responding to the Fairfax media report of a University of Otago survey of Wellington’s street-connected walkways, Taxpayers’ Union Executive Director Jordan Williams says:...
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • Another Union row
    “ The teachers union the NZEA is getting ready for another industrial dispute. These disputes now only occur in the government sector. National has no one to blame but themselves” said ACT Leader Dr Jamie Whyte....
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • Whyte: Speech to Grey Power
    National’s failure to increase the age for super and reform health is a threat to every New Zealander’s security....
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • Local Govt should not go into business
    “No one should take any comfort from the fact that “Infracon”, a roading company in Tararua and Central Hawke's Bay, is to go into liquidation. This puts the future of more than 200 jobs in doubt. ACT sympathises with those...
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • Join the hikoi to end child poverty in New Zealand
    CPAG is calling on people across society to join a march from Britomart to Aotea Square in Auckland to demand action on child poverty in Aotearoa....
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • Ngapuhi Chair Says Enough of the Political Sideshow
    Time for side-shows to end so we can focus on future of our nation – Raniera (Sonny) Tau, Chairman, Te Runanga A Iwi O Ngapuhi...
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • Commissioner of Police v Kim Dotcom And Ors
    An order is made extending the duration of the registration of the restraining orders issued by the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia on 10 and 25 January 2012 and registered in New Zealand on 18...
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • Labour Announcement on Future of Hillside Workshops Welcome
    Labour leader David Cunliffe’s announcement in Dunedin today that a government led by his party would re-open Hillside Railway workshops was welcomed by the Rail and Maritime Transport Union (RMTU). ‘Since the workshops were shut down in late...
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • Primary teachers and principals vote to put kids first
    Teachers and principals have voted overwhelmingly against the Government’s controversial “Investing in Educational Success” policy, including proposed highly-paid principal and teacher roles....
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • Prime Time with Sean Plunkett: Educating for Success
    In all the turmoil stirred up by the "Dirty Politics" revelations, the real issues that the campaign should be about have been put to one side....
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • Dirty Politics – Number One Bestseller and Back in Stores
    An exposé of the hidden side of New Zealand politics, Nicky Hager's book, Dirty Politics , has been in hot demand since its release last Wednesday....
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • Epsom: profiling NZ’s most controversial electorate
    Welcome to the wealthy inner Auckland electorate of Epsom: home of coat-tailing, the Tea Tapes, a convicted outgoing MP... and heavy newspaper and magazine readership....
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • Families Free From Violence campaign and website
    We are pleased to announce the launch of our Families Free From Violence campaign and our new Families Free From Violence website. This website has been created to encourage people to take responsibility for ending family violence by seeking help...
    Scoop politics | 21-08
  • PSA And DHBs Reach Settlement on Five Collective Agreements
    The 20 District Health Boards are pleased to reach settlement via mediation on five Multi Employer Collective Agreements (MECAs) with the Public Service Association for 12,000 mental and public health nurses, allied, public health and technical staff,...
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Refusal to complete census results in 46 convictions
    Failing to fill out a census form has resulted in the convictions of 46 people, Statistics New Zealand said today....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Council Amalgamations Still Bad Deal
    Northland, Bay of Plenty, and Wellington ratepayers should not be seduced into accepting the amalgamation of their Councils by a recent amendment to legislation allowing for local boards not community boards, Chris Leitch, Democrats for Social Credit...
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • DHB industrial action withdrawn
    The Public Service Association (PSA) has withdrawn notices of industrial action covering 12,000 health workers at District Health Boards (DHBs) across New Zealand, after progress was made in mediation....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Aged Care Pledge Needs Better Target, Says Care Agency
    Labour’s pledge to set up an aged care working group to address industry concerns is good to see, but appears to skirt the obvious issue of a looming lack of beds and carers for our rapidly growing elderly population, says...
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Social inequality still rife in New Zealand
    Social inequality has worsened over the past decade in New Zealand, a new study from Victoria University of Wellington shows....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Working towards a living wage and more Māori in paid work
    The Māori Party will build on the gains it has already achieved in Government and accelerate job opportunities particularly for young Māori....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Deepwater Group Supports Changes to Catch Limits
    The Deepwater Group says the increase in the Total Allowable Commercial Catch for hoki shows the benefits of a long term commitment to build biomass in this major New Zealand fishery....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • ACT announces Ohariu candidate Sean Fitzpatrick
    “Our Ohariu candidate will be Sean Fitzpatrick. Sean has strong ties to the region and I’m glad to hear he will be doing his best to grow ACT’s party vote in the area,” says Dr Whyte....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • ACT announces Tauranga candidate Stuart Pederson
    “Our Tauranga candidate will be Stuart Pedersen. Stuart has strong ties to Tauranga and I’m glad he has agreed to do his best to grow ACT’s party vote in the electorate,” says Dr Whyte....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Green Party scores massive own goal
    Green Party scores massive own goal as their own policy auditor criticises their fiscal plan...
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Green Party’s own Auditor of their Budget finds it dodgy
    “The Alternative Budget released by the Green's does not even stack up in the eyes of their chosen auditor – Infometrics” said ACT Leader Dr Jamie Whyte....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • New shark finning laws fall short for threatened species
    Environmental groups are welcoming some aspects of a raft of law changes announced today in relation to shark finning, but say that overall the chance for New Zealand to catch up with international efforts in shark conservation is being missed....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Promoting Labour’s Positive Policies
    General Secretary of the New Zealand Labour Party, Tim Barnett, today launched Labour’s television advertisements for the 2014 election. The advertisements help tell Labour’s positive story for a better New Zealand....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Drug Court: Rare Insight into New Alternative Justice Model
    Māori Television’s latest New Zealand documentary presents a fascinating look inside a new alternative justice model – through the stories of convicted criminals....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Political parties pledge to increase overseas aid
    A survey of political parties looking at how much New Zealand should spend on Official Development Assistance (ODA) shows the overwhelming majority of parties are committed to raising the bar according to the Council for International Development (CID)....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Top Kiwis backing Tip the Scales campaign
    Sir Graham Henry, former All Black Kees Meeuws, singer-song writer Jamie McDell and fishing guru Matt Watson have pledged their support to Tip the Scales, a pre-election campaign generating public support for rebuilding New Zealand’s depleted inshore...
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Maritime Union continues to press over dirty politics
    Maritime Union National President Garry Parsloe says Ports of Auckland management is trying to get off the hook from its involvement with extreme right wing bloggers during the Ports of Auckland dispute....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • No end in sight to overwhelming human cost of conflict
    Two ceasefires have brought some respite to civilians in Gaza and southern Israel, amid hope that a durable cessation of hostilities might occur. In Gaza, these breaks in the fighting have barely given people enough time to seek medical care,...
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Young Kiwi speakers to represent NZ at Gallipoli 2015
    The RSA is delighted at the announcement made by Veterans' Affairs Minister Michael Woodhouse today, that all eight regional finalists of the 2015 ANZ RSA Cyril Bassett VC Speech Competition will be included in a group of 25 Youth Ambassadors...
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • “Bromance” Marriage Stunt Insulting Says LegaliseLove
    A promotional competition asking two best mates to get married in order to win an all-expenses-paid trip to the 2015 Rugby World Cup is insulting, marriage equality campaign LegaliseLove Aotearoa claims....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • Cannabis Party first to register for 2014 General Election
    The Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party became the first party to register for the 2014 General Election today, when it meet with the Electoral Commission in Wellington at Midday....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
  • PGA: Addresses NZ’s ratification of Arms Trade Treaty
    President of Parliamentarians for Global Action and New Zealand MP Ross Robertson today addressed a celebration to mark New Zealand’s imminent ratification of the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), which is expected within the next few weeks....
    Scoop politics | 20-08
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