How bad are National’s internals?

Written By: - Date published: 12:33 pm, November 19th, 2011 - 135 comments
Categories: brand key, election 2011, national, polls, scoundrels - Tags:

Some say the tea tapes haven’t hurt Brand Key. In fact, National is down 2% last week and those polls were largely taken before the tea tapes hit overdrive. It also takes time for impressions and media narratives to bed in. The 26th will be the first poll to really tell us how much the tea tapes have hurt. But the internals could give us a clue.

In the first 2 week of the campaign, National averaged 53.3% and 53.2% respectively in the Colmar Brunton, Reid Research, and Digipoll polls. This week, it got 51%.

That’s still enough to govern alone, sure. But with ACT all but dead and Peter Dunne with a good chance of losing, National has a very thin wedge between governing alone and not governing at all. They need at least 48%. A 2.2% fall in a week nearly halves their safety margin.

What caused this sudden fall? Logically, it can only have been the tea tapes.

So, do these polls capture the whole impact of the tea tapes? No. They can’t. Polling for all three was conducted between the 10th and 16th of November.

Here’s a timeline of events so far compared to when the polling was taking place (assumes a seventh of polling is conducted on each of the seven days)

10/11/2011 Polling starts
11/11/2011 Madhatter’s tea party
12/11/2011
13/11/2011 Knowledge of tape emerges. Key and Joyce use ‘News of the World tactics’ line
14/11/2011 Key lays Police complaint after he learns 3news has the tape. Hints that tapes contains talk of replacing Brash/’restructuring’ ACT
15/11/2011 Key makes distasteful suicide comments. NOTW victims’ lawyer call Key’s comments “cheap shot”. References to old people hinted at.
16/11/2011 Key loses his cool and storms out of press conference. Banks’ disasterious interview with Gower. Peters dominates minor leaders’ debate, slams Key. Polling ends
17/11/2011 Families of suicide victims speak out against Key’s comparison. He repeats it. Key says it’s OK to waste Police time on his complaint because they have “spare time”. Police say they will execute search warrants on media.Poll shows backlash in Epsom against Key’s endorsement of Banks. TV polls released. Peters hints at more of tape’s contents. Key refuses to engage with question of whether he talked about winning “unbridled power”
18/11/2011 Police refute Key’s statement about lazy cops, Key stands by it. Victims of crime speak out. International Federation of Journalists condemns Key. Court date set to determine whether conversation was private.

We can see that this thing began escalating well after polling was already underway. The polls were over 50% complete by the time the tea tape became big news on Monday, and the most damaging events actually took place on the 17th, after polling had ceased entirely.

In that context, it’s actually pretty remarkable that the polls show a 2% drop. And it indicates a much larger fall.

Here’s a pretty simplistic model to explain what I mean. Say National was at 53% when polling started, as it had been throughout the campaign, and lost support steadily as a result of the tea tape saga from the 13th onwards – how much would have had to lose per day between the 13th and the 16th to get a result of 51% in the poll results?

10/11/2011 53.2
11/11/2011 53.2
12/11/2011 53.2
13/11/2011 51.7
14/11/2011 50.2
15/11/2011 48.7
16/11/2011 47.2
Average 51.1

So, a 2% average fall between last week and this one may actually represent a fall of 1.5% a day this week – which takes them into an election-losing 47.2% by Wednesday.

Now, I doubt that National’s fall has actually been so big. There’s statistical noise that might account for some of the change, but, don’t forget, this isn’t 1 poll result that’s shown a fall from a steady 53% to 51% in a week – it’s the average of 3 conducted over the same period.

And, more importantly, don’t forget that the polls were finished before Key made the worst mistake so far – saying the Police had ‘spare time’ to give him special treatment, which was an insult to the victims of the 220,000 unsolved crimes last year – and before the tea tapes ceased being a mere scandal and veered towards constitutional crisis with the Police preparing to raid newsrooms and the international media reporting on us like some banana republic.

People don’t change their minds in an instant anyway. Nor do media narratives. But Brand Key has been shredded by this week, and when people go to reassess their opinions in the last week, particularly during the final two leaders’ debates – Brand Key won’t be such a powerful offset against National’s unpopular policies like asset sales. If you compare the polls to the new Massey study showing 76% oppose asset sales, that means at least 27% until now have opposed asset sales but that has been outweighed by Brand Key. That’s a lot of votes in play if Brand Key is damaged.

Then, there’s the Winston Factor. He’s gaining in the polls. From 2.3% in the 1st week, 2.9% in the second week, suddenly up to 3.5% this week. Again, this is unlikely to capture all the change. The limelight started to shine on Peters on Tuesday, the second to last night of polling. He won the minor leaders’ debate as the final 14% of the polling was being conducted. And, of course, he’s had the boost of polling 4.9% in the Herald poll, which will encourage many people who were wary of wasting their vote on him that it wouldn’t be a waste after all.

The next Fairfax poll will likely also be an incomplete picture. If it’s released on Sunday, it will have been taken from the previous Saturday through to this Friday. So, the full impact of the tea tapes will be diluted by polling conducted before the story began and while it was building.

The final polls at the end of next week may give us a better idea of the impact of the story so far, but remember there’s plenty more to come, including the release of the tape itself, which will likely happen tomorrow in the Herald on Sunday or Wednesday on TV3 (I don’t think that any serious journalist would consider it ethical to withhold this kind of information from the public just before an election).  Only on the 26th will we really know what the impact of the tapes has been.

But the parties’ internal polls would be a nice clue. National and Labour conduct tracking polls, where they survey 200 or 250 people a night and combine the previous 4 or 5 nights’ results to get results. Vernon Small today says that Labour’s internals show a “slight firming in support late in the week”, which could be consistent with a much larger change coming into the tracking poll and displacing older data.

What about National’s internals? Well, we can ask their pollster (sorry, independent commentator who is ‘affiliated with the National Party’ insomuch as their money puts food on his table) David Farrar. David won’t tell us directly. But he’s not exactly a master of bluffing either.

David’s written just 6 posts on the tea tapes. He’s tried to downplay it, attacked the media’s reporting, assisted in National’s personal attack on the cameraman, and even tried to claim it’s bad for Labour (when Labour says they want to talk about policy it’s about positioning themselves above the fray and concentrated on the big issues – they’re not sad that Key is getting the kicking of his life). David’s also been attacking journalists for their reporting of it on Twitter. The only time he’s gone off message was in his initial reaction to Key storming off from the press conference, before he got the party line.

Tellingly, David has started attacking Peters a lot. He’s devoted several recent columns on Stuff and the Herald to casting dire warnings about the return of Peters unless we all obediently vote National.

Clearly, the internal polls are telling David something.

What the polls tells us is that this election is far from over.

-Bright Red

135 comments on “How bad are National’s internals? ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. mik e 1
    19 November 2011 at 12:51 pm

    anyone got the latest undecided vote

  2. the sprout 2
    19 November 2011 at 12:58 pm

    Horizon on the 16th on undecideds

    http://horizonpoll.co.nz/page/175/six-out-of-1

    I’ve heard elsewhere the internals are not very comforting for National.
    They will pull out the big and dirty game this week, blitzkrieg style as is their wont.

  3. Lanthanide 3
    19 November 2011 at 12:59 pm

    Formatting in this post is a little screwed up.

    Also I think BR should be given an author login.

  4. weka 4
    19 November 2011 at 1:00 pm

    “I don’t think that any serious journalist would consider it ethical to withhold this kind of information from the public just before an election”
     
    Then why are they withholding it?

    • Lanthanide 4.1
      19 November 2011 at 1:05 pm

      At the moment, so they can goad Key into making more terribly bad mistakes.

      This is the kind of coverage Key has never really had before, where the media are hostile and critical of everything he does, instead of just wishy-washy accepting everything he says without real comment.

      • weka 4.1.1
        19 November 2011 at 1:14 pm

        I’m personally finding it fucking annoying. As much fun as torturing Key is, I don’t see how this serves NZ or the bit of democracy we have here. They should just publish it. Publishing on Weds would be worse than not publishing it all. 
         
        There’s also the issue of people having to cast advance votes. If we need to know what the tapes say, then they need to know that too.

  5. Lanthanide 5
    19 November 2011 at 1:09 pm

    Here’s an interesting stuff story that gives a better idea behind what might be going on:
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/polls/5998662/Massey-poll-survey-gives-interesting-reading

    “For Labour supporters, the most common second choice is the Greens at 43 per cent, but note that a pretty substantial 29 per cent of Labour voters say their second choice is National, while 14 per cent choose NZ First.

    “Even more interesting is the second choice of National voters. The most common second choice of National voters is, in fact, Labour at 32 per cent. This is followed by ACT at 21 per cent of the second choice for National voters, and not far behind at 20 per cent are the Greens.”

    Dr Perry said when the second choices of National voters were combined more than 51.4 per cent had opted for a party on the Left.

    • Tom Gould 5.1
      19 November 2011 at 3:19 pm

      More interesting is that “Among Maori Party voters 38.5 per cent listed Labour as their second choice, 23.1 per cent said NZ First and 23.1 per cent said Greens.” No number is published for National, but has to be 15% at the most, which sends a clear message to Tariana. Of course, as is speculated, even if the Tories get in the mid to high 40s, without lapdogs Banks and Dunne, they are screwed. Winston has ruled out a deal. Tariana is the king maker. And her voters overwhelmingly say “no” to the Tories. No wonder the Tories are in ‘blind panic’ mode? Next week these Tories will get seriously nasty. Watch for ‘no finger prints’ character assassinations, bullying, intimidation, and fake scandals.

    • Uturn 5.2
      19 November 2011 at 7:01 pm

      “…but note that a pretty substantial 29 per cent of Labour voters say their second choice is National…”

      An oxymoron, surely.

      Hi, I’m a Nat/Lab voter. I like to consider the poor and then bash them down while helping them up to kick them to the ground. I also support the sale of assets while staunchly supporting state owned enterprises. I’m also keenly aware of environmental issues, drilling and mining are unacceptable until the price is right, and climate change doesn’t exist, but it will change our lives.

      I think I’ll write it off to the lies of statistics.

      • felix 5.2.1
        20 November 2011 at 2:14 pm

        You seem to be assuming that:

        1) everyone is as well informed on those issues as you are, and
        2) that everyone understands both parties’ policy positions on those issues.

        I don’t think either of those are safe assumptions.

  6. Fortran 6
    19 November 2011 at 1:18 pm

    weka

    The MSM in this country have no ethics, so what’s new.

  7. mik e 7
    19 November 2011 at 1:28 pm

    So Stuff.co might be 51.4% right when they say ManKey visits Winton could be that next week Stuff.co headline will be visits Winston for a cup of tea as the smiling assassin looks to do a deal!
    Another Stuff up by Jinxed Keys handlers

  8. One of the Masses 8
    19 November 2011 at 1:47 pm

    “But with ACT all but dead”
    – Just because something is said over & over again doesn’t make it so. A better technique would be for ALL commentators to stay silent on ACT’s demise – instead of goading National supporters in Epsom to vote tactically to keep National in power for this term & potentially the next.

    • Jackal 8.1
      19 November 2011 at 3:43 pm

      Goad Nat supporters to vote for Banks? I think most of them would rather poke their eyes out.

      A great article Bright Red… I totally agree with your analysis.

    • Ari 8.2
      20 November 2011 at 11:54 am

      Epsom have changed their minds in ACT’s favour before, but that was Rodney Hide’s ACT, which was already a lot more uncomfortable for them than Richard Prebble’s ACT. I’m not sure how they’ll feel about a Banks or Brash ACT, and you shouldn’t rely on Banks winning.

  9. Jester 9
    19 November 2011 at 2:00 pm

    All this made sense right up until Phil appeared on The Nation and still didn’t know any numbers and his two wingmen (the two davids) slipped the knife in betweens Phils ribs.
    Don’t get me wrong, I would hate to see Labour back in govt but part of me sympathizes with him when his two advisors have set him up so ruthlessly.

    • ianmac 9.1
      19 November 2011 at 4:10 pm

      Of course John Key doesn’t need notes to refer to in answering questions because he never fronts up to be asked those questions. At least Phil does front up to the Nation. Key just refuses. And you Jester get picky about Phil?

  10. Brett Dale 10
    19 November 2011 at 2:06 pm

    How come, then most people according to boards and blogs that aren’t political blame the media, and not national who were the victims of brad white/ambrose covertly taping key.

    • Lanthanide 10.1
      19 November 2011 at 2:49 pm

      Oh please, Key is a victim now?

      If he didn’t want a publicity stunt where all the press turned up, he shouldn’t have staged one.

  11. Brett Dale 11
    19 November 2011 at 2:08 pm

    Every Poll has in three years has National winning, do you really think all of sudden kiwis are going to turn to Goff?

    • Lanthanide 11.1
      19 November 2011 at 2:50 pm

      They don’t have to “turn to Goff”. They just have to turn away from National and Key.

    • kriswgtn 11.2
      19 November 2011 at 2:52 pm

      Still Thinking its FPP ?

      haha clown

      The left need sfa of the swing vote to change the outcome…..

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 11.3
      19 November 2011 at 3:32 pm

      Most of it is going to Winston, some to the Greens.

    • Ari 11.4
      20 November 2011 at 11:56 am

      They have five Party options that could unseat National, (although at this stage I’d feel iffy about giving Mana my Party vote) I’m happy with any of those.

  12. pollywog 12
    19 November 2011 at 2:11 pm

    But Brand Key has been shredded by this week, and when people go to reassess their opinions in the last week, particularly during the final two leaders’ debates – Brand Key won’t be such a powerful offset against National’s unpopular policies like asset sales.

    Key will do everything to trip Goff up with the numbers game again and make him look bumblingly oafish with figures. It’s not that hard to do if even Donut Garner can.

    Goff needs a good defense line he can hold. How’s this ?

    “Look John, Im not gonna lie and say i have the greatest head for facts and figures. That’s your forte. I am going to say however that i have a more than capable finance minister in the person of David Cunliffe who does, so if you, or your shonky numbers guy the Rt Honourable Bill English, would care to take up the challenge and debate him on the exact facts and figures you’re more than welcome.”

    • Anne 12.1
      19 November 2011 at 2:53 pm

      Good one pollywog:
      Why don’t you email your suggested defence line to Phil Goff and to Trevor Mallard. I doubt they – or their staff – have time to read these posts and comments right now.

  13. dd 13
    19 November 2011 at 3:08 pm

    Someone needs to question Key’s history as well. Explaion to NZers how he made his money.

    They also need to deal with the incorrect statment that Key gives all his pay to charity.

    • marsman 13.1
      19 November 2011 at 4:19 pm

      I keep hearing that John Key gives all or most of his income to charity, is that not true? Not that it would matter to him, he’ll make a bomb once he’s finished with NZ, all those boards of directors of companies he’s given benefits to.

      • Hami Shearlie 13.1.1
        19 November 2011 at 8:08 pm

        From what I remember, he claimed to give a portion of his salary to charity – a portion could be any amount, even a paltry $5 couldn’t it? The business Herald a few years ago reported that John Key didn’t have a mortgage on his house, and that he then obtained one and claimed a parliamentary allowance for it. Why would someone with $50 million do something like that?Makes one think? Couldn’t be greed could it?

        • Colonial Viper 13.1.1.1
          19 November 2011 at 8:10 pm

          He donates to the Waitemata Trust.

        • felix 13.1.1.2
          20 November 2011 at 2:23 pm

          It’s even more lame than that, Hami. He said he would donate to “good causes”, a piece of phrasing which leaves a lot of room for subjectivity.

          As CV notes, a “good cause” for Key might be the local food bank but might also be the local branch of the National Party.

          Typical Keyspeak, ambiguous vacuous meaningless waffle.

  14. I dreamed a dream 14
    19 November 2011 at 4:12 pm

    Roy Morgan is out – http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4723/

    🙁 🙁 🙁

    I surrender!

    I await 2014.

    • Jackal 14.1
      19 November 2011 at 4:32 pm

      I’ve never been rung up… probably because I don’t live in Remuera.

      • lprent 14.1.1
        19 November 2011 at 5:20 pm

        I have never been rung for a political poll in the last 20 years. Probably because my landline number has been unlisted for more than 20 years. I only get telemarketing from the bank and ISP provider – who know my land line.

        Lyn took a call earlier this week from digipoll (sounded like push polling for telecom from what I could hear). I asked her to check how they got the number (as per my usual policy). It was a random dial – first time ever.

        • Colonial Viper 14.1.1.1
          19 November 2011 at 8:11 pm

          Elderly neighbour got rung up for a phone poll this morning. He told them his voting intentions were none of their business and hung up. And he’s hard core Labour.

    • ianmac 14.2
      19 November 2011 at 4:47 pm

      Not over yet mate. Note NZF is at 3%. And a few slippage points will make all the difference.

      • Puddleglum 14.2.1
        19 November 2011 at 8:10 pm

        “NZF is at 3%“.

        That was an interesting result, given that all other polls released recently have NZF ‘surging’. That 3% represents a fall of 1.5% from the previous Roy Morgan.

        That possibly suggests that the latest Roy Morgan is not picking up recent movements but is weighted towards the earlier part of its sampling period (8-18 Nov). That would be just after the ‘show me the money’ week. 

        Edit: The period was 7-18 November

        • Colonial Viper 14.2.1.1
          20 November 2011 at 12:00 pm

          The statistical noise with the small parties kills any reading of short term trends. +/- 3% margin of error (for instance) makes any result less than 10% a crapshoot.

          • Ari 14.2.1.1.1
            20 November 2011 at 12:08 pm

            Yep, you can only really rely on polls to give you anything close to accuracy for Labour, National, and now the Greens.

    • ianmac 14.3
      19 November 2011 at 4:52 pm

      And this poll was over 7-18 November. Only part of that time was during the tea-tape melt down. Watch that space.

    • Lanthanide 14.4
      19 November 2011 at 5:20 pm

      I was at my parents for dinner on Thursday night and my dad answered the phone. He said that was some asian calling from some place called ‘roy morgan’ so he hung up on them. Pity.

    • mik e 14.5
      19 November 2011 at 11:17 pm

      some where between 6%&11% undecided vote maybe more

  15. Jim Nald 15
    19 November 2011 at 4:18 pm

    Maybe for him, charity begins (and gets stalled) at home and with good mates?

  16. Bronson 16
    19 November 2011 at 4:32 pm

    I’m seriously considering voting for NZ First. The left will need his 6 seats for confidence and supply to form a government.

    • ianmac 16.1
      19 November 2011 at 4:56 pm

      Just been discussing by Skype with my wife who is overseas for her Special vote. She is also considering NZF for no other reason than as a strategic vote. My loyalty is for Phil Goff but it might be a help for him to have NZF as a means of not having Key in the front seat.

      • fmacskasy 16.1.1
        19 November 2011 at 5:06 pm

        Ianmac – At this stage, voting for practically any party (Greens, Labour, Mana, Maori, or NZ First) is a good option.

        I’ve taken ‘+1’ on board, and have encouraged two non-voters to enroll and cast special votes. There are two other people living adjacent to us, who have probably never voted. After talking with them, they are now very keen to do so. (They are part of the “Invisibles” to polling – no landline.)

        • Akldnut 16.1.1.1
          19 November 2011 at 8:13 pm

          Over the past 2 weeks I’ve been in overdrive making sure that everyone I meet and work with go out to vote.

          Of the 500 or so (which includes the people at the mall) about 15 have said they were enrolled but didn’t vote in the last election and will now go in to vote for Labour or a left party. (surprised by the amount who indicated Mana)
          I have also enrolled about 20 new voters who will also be doing the same – the majority going to Labour.

          My pitch is that the number people who didn’t vote last election are the ones who are allowing National to govern, so a non vote is as good as a vote for them.

        • Colonial Viper 16.1.1.2
          19 November 2011 at 8:15 pm

          Yeah but voting for NZ1 and getting them over the line gets ~6 MPs into Parliament versus zero if they don’t make it.

    • Lanthanide 16.2
      19 November 2011 at 5:22 pm

      Winston is probably not going to give confidence and supply to either party, he’ll just Abstain.

      • mik e 16.2.1
        19 November 2011 at 10:37 pm

        Got a bottle and cigar this is just posturing like key won’t do a deal he’ll be only to happy to have him for confidence and supply racing minister I predict.

    • weka 16.3
      19 November 2011 at 5:23 pm

      Um, remember when NZFirst went into govt with National after telling Labour supporters it would go with Labour? What makes you think Peters would choose Labour this time?
       
      Give your party vote to a party that is actually on the Left.

      • weka 16.3.1
        19 November 2011 at 5:28 pm

        Not to mention that if NZF don’t reach the 5% threshhold you’ve wasted your vote and effectively given it to National.

        • weka 16.3.1.1
          19 November 2011 at 5:45 pm

          And the fact that Labour and NZF can’t form a govt, and NZF probably will refuse to work with the Greens. That all points to Peters choosing Nats again.

          • ianmac 16.3.1.1.1
            19 November 2011 at 8:26 pm

            Weka maybe many of NZF votes will be from those who are disaffected with Act or National so…

            • weka 16.3.1.1.1.1
              19 November 2011 at 9:30 pm

              I was replying to Bronson who said “I’m seriously considering voting for NZ First. The left will need his 6 seats for confidence and supply to form a government.”
               
              Does anyone think a Labour/Greens/NZF coalition is even remotely likely? Or a Labour/Greens coalition with Mana and NZF support on confidence and supply? Why would NZF even consider that?
               

              • Ari …
                21 November 2011 at 12:13 am

                Why WOULDN’T NZF consider going into coalition with Labour? Their only success in parliament has been when working with Labour governments.

                Of course, even if they don’t, NZF squeaking past 5% and abstaining on confidence and supply, but weighing in on other bills may be better for parliament than it dropping out at 3.9% or whatever, especially given that they would then have the power to cancel the government whenever they liked.

                • Colonial Viper …
                  21 November 2011 at 12:17 am

                  National is hoping that NZ1 get 4.8% and therefore waste that much anti-National voting sentiment.

    • the sprout 16.4
      19 November 2011 at 7:18 pm

      i will be encouraging some i know to vote NZF although i doubt i will myself.
      the important thing is that NZF doesn’t soak up 4.9% of wasted anti-government vote.

  17. chris73 17
    19 November 2011 at 4:45 pm

    Well I still think Dunne will hold his seat, Act will win Epsom and bring in another MP (shame it has to be Brash) and National will govern.

    • Colonial Viper 17.1
      19 November 2011 at 8:18 pm

      Odds are definitely still for National.

      But I reckon ACT is burnt toast.

      • chris73 17.1.1
        19 November 2011 at 9:03 pm

        The voters in epsom will vote accordingly but more importantly I hope act stays because it gives a voice people who hold those beliefs (much the same as the mana party for example)

        • Colonial Viper 17.1.1.1
          19 November 2011 at 9:20 pm

          If ACT don’t make the numbers, they don’t deserve to be in Parliament – same as Mana.

      • mik e 17.1.2
        19 November 2011 at 11:19 pm

        ACT voters might be better voting National then in case their vote is wasted

  18. Lazy Susan 18
    19 November 2011 at 5:05 pm

    Tellingly, David has started attacking Peters a lot. He’s devoted several recent columns on Stuff and the Herald to casting dire warnings about the return of Peters unless we all obediently vote National.

    Stephen Franks on RNZ yesterday morning was also targetting Peters. This is the NAct’s nightmare scenario because there are many conservative National voters who are very uncomfortable with asset sales yet can’t bring themseleves to vote Labour or Green. With Peter’s now a viable option those Nat voters have got a place to go. The Nats are rattled and Brand Key may be further damaged when the tape is released. Interesting times.

    • the sprout 18.1
      19 November 2011 at 7:21 pm

      RNZ’s panel yesterday was a full-on, wall-to-wall Winston hate-fest.

      Apparently there’s no expectation of balance when the object of criticism is the PM’s enemy.

  19. Brett Dale 19
    19 November 2011 at 5:15 pm

    Latest poll

    Greens are a tad high.

    The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows Prime Minister John Key’s National Party set for a clear victory in next Saturday’s New Zealand election with National (53%, unchanged) increasing its lead over the Labour Party (24.5%, down 1.5%). Support for the Green Party (13%, up 1%) has continued to increase while New Zealand First (3%, down 1.5%), ACT NZ (1.5%, up 0.5%) and United Future ( > 0.5%, unchanged) will all struggle to win seats in the new Parliament.

    • Scott 19.1
      19 November 2011 at 7:21 pm

      Just watched the interview with the Roy Morgan CEO on Scoop where she concedes that any impact from the teapot tapes is unlikely to show up until further polling is conducted Tue/Wed/Thur next week.

  20. bruno 32 20
    19 November 2011 at 5:42 pm

    Labour can thank their manky media mates for waking up Epsom voters and keeping Goff out of the news for 25 % of the election campaign.Key is on the home straight and will win by 3 lenghts.After the inquiry ,the greens will be disqualified for foul play and winstone can continue his relationship with Johnny Walker.

  21. Tazirev 21
    19 November 2011 at 6:08 pm

    Have just had a call in Hamilton from someone claiming to be doing a political poll for TV3 and wanting to talk to males between 17 and 24 and 44 and 55, when I told them there was no one in those age groups here they asked where there any female voters available to be questioned??

  22. SHG 22
    19 November 2011 at 6:11 pm

    Latest Roy Morgan, released today.

    National (53%, unchanged)
    Labour (24.5%, down 1.5%)
    Green (13%, up 1%)
    Winston First (3%, down 1.5%)
    ACT (1.5%, up 0.5%)
    United Future ( > 0.5%, unchanged)
    Maori (3%, up 1%)
    Mana (1%, unchanged)

    • infused 22.1
      19 November 2011 at 6:14 pm

      Yep. Nationals hurting real bad guys.

      • McFlock 22.1.1
        19 November 2011 at 6:50 pm

        Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that nact/uf/mp were on 59%? And that all were likely to be returned to parliament?
         
        The only questionis whether national will lose support quickly enough. For that wecan only rely on shonkey.

      • Lanthanide 22.1.2
        19 November 2011 at 7:27 pm

        Most Roy Morgan polling is done early in the period where they have less strict demographic requirements.

        So again, we need more recent polls with a more recent polling period.

    • weka 22.2
      19 November 2011 at 8:13 pm

      Here’s how it looks based on those %s and Maori and Mana getting 4 and 2 Maori seats respectively.
       

      Party            Party Vote     Total MPs                % of MPs

      Green Party     13.00%               17                14.05%
      Labour Party    24.50%               31                25.62%
      Mana                1.00%                 2*                1.65%
      Māori Party        3.0                     4                  3.31%
      National Party   53.00%              67                55.37%
      Totals               94.50%            121              100.00%
       

      http://www.elections.org.nz/voting/mmp/mmp-calculator.html

      • weka 22.2.1
        19 November 2011 at 8:14 pm

        Except there are seven Maori seats not 6, so that’s not quite right.

        • Alwyn 22.2.1.1
          20 November 2011 at 2:53 pm

          I think this assumes that Mana get one list MP.
          The other two Maori seats will, probably, stay with the Labour party.
          I know everyone tends to forget them, as neither is particularly charasmatic, but Horomia and Mahutu are still there.

  23. tsmithfield 23
    19 November 2011 at 6:46 pm

    The biggest hope for the left is that National voters get complacent and don’t turn out. Problem is, the left voters probably won’t turn out either because they see it as a lost cause.

    On the other hand, I think voters would prefer an outright National government compared to a abomination of a coalition involving Labour, Greens, Maori Party, with Mana and NZ First abstaining on confidence and supply.

    • Lanthanide 23.1
      19 November 2011 at 7:28 pm

      So Labour, Greens and MP. How is that worse than National, ACT, UF and MP?

      L, G and MP all have more in common than N, A, UF and MP. Tariana herself said in the minor party leaders debate that they voted against National more often than not.

      • tsmithfield 23.1.1
        19 November 2011 at 8:45 pm

        What part of A, UF, and MP is there in “outright National Government”?

        • Puddleglum 23.1.1.1
          19 November 2011 at 8:52 pm

          Ask Key, He seems to think there’s bits of all of those and – who knows – the Greens too in any government he’ll form.

          • tsmithfield 23.1.1.1.1
            19 November 2011 at 8:59 pm

            There may well be. But if National has the outright majority they won’t need those parties to get legislation through. It will just be a pat on the head to make them feel important.

            • Colonial Viper 23.1.1.1.1.1
              19 November 2011 at 9:26 pm

              It will just be a pat on the head to make them feel important.

              Ain’t that the truth.

            • Puddleglum 23.1.1.1.1.2
              19 November 2011 at 10:26 pm

              So Key will want those parties to sign up to his government without offering them anything? I don’t think there’ll be many takers in that case.

              Key will have to concede some policy points to each of them – that’s what the voters need to contemplate even if National gets an outright majority. (According to Key, anyway). 

            • mik e 23.1.1.1.1.3
              19 November 2011 at 11:21 pm

              No MMP election has ever produced a govern alone party so this would be a world first.

              • tsmithfield …
                20 November 2011 at 5:58 am

                There is a first for anything. And we haven’t had that many MMP elections.

                • felix …
                  20 November 2011 at 2:39 pm

                  A world first, moron. We’re not the only country using MMP.

                  • Colonial Viper …
                    20 November 2011 at 3:05 pm

                    This might turn some stomachs. But it is important to remember that in the event of a win on Nov 26, Key and the NATs will be looking for new coalition partners to join them and to help them secure a third term.

        • Lanthanide 23.1.1.2
          19 November 2011 at 11:01 pm

          My point is that the existing government is more of an abomination than the one you propose, as the existing government is comprised of 4 parties, not 3, and one of those parties votes more often against the main party than it does with the. That wouldn’t be the case under the 3-party Labour government you outline.

          • tsmithfield 23.1.1.2.1
            20 November 2011 at 6:00 am

            Key seems quite good at hearding cats. I am not so sure Goff would have that skill.

            • Alwyn 23.1.1.2.1.1
              20 November 2011 at 3:01 pm

              There probably isn’t enough time for it but the way the polls are going it would be a Green government with a Labour support party.
              Incidentally, if the Greens were to get more votes than Labour which of the Green party leaders would become the leader of the opposition? There are certain roles, expressed in Legislation, that only appear to anticipate a single leader of the opposition. These are things like being briefed by the head of the SIS.
              I suppose for that one the would probably choose the one with the best memory. It would be better than having someone who didn’t even remember having had the briefing.

          • Ari 23.1.1.2.2
            21 November 2011 at 12:29 am

            Not to mention a one-party government is much more scary than a 3- or 4-party government in my opinion. When you’ve got three different parties pulling in slightly different directions, it tends to keep the government honest.

    • locus 23.2
      19 November 2011 at 8:44 pm

      Your opinion that “a coalition involving Labour, Greens, Maori Party, with Mana and NZ First abstaining on confidence and supply” is an “abomination” reflects the kind of hatred of compromise and bridge-building which is destroying the NZ I’m proud of.

      Thank goodness most decent kiwis are aware of the unpleasant history of divisiveness and unfairness under FPP and will comprehensively support the retention of MMP

  24. tsmithfield 24
    19 November 2011 at 7:10 pm

    Of course, Act were trailing by a similar margin or worse at the same time last year and still came through and won. I expect the Epsom Nat voters will hold their noses and vote for Banks for the electorate vote.

  25. hadenoughofpolls 25
    19 November 2011 at 7:57 pm

    Are you lot along with the other political blogs going to ejaculate about polls all next week ?

    Why not just wait until Sunday week and then discuss what has happened instead of working yourselves into such a lather.

    • McFlock 26.1
      19 November 2011 at 10:13 pm

      2005? And there were some issues with the polling predictions then, as well. Although I grant you it did have Hide 15% behind not 11. When was the 2005 cup of tea?
      Where can we get colmar brunton Epsom results for2008? Closest I’ve found is this, which reckoned the NBR pedicted Hide well ahead in 2008.

    • Puddleglum 26.2
      19 November 2011 at 10:29 pm

      tsmithfield was referring to “last year [sic]” – i.e., 2008 election – not 2005.

    • mik e 26.3
      19 November 2011 at 11:12 pm

      Dug that was September 2005 21/2 months from polling day not one week out from poll day !

      • Alwyn 26.3.1
        20 November 2011 at 3:06 pm

        Where do you get two and a half months from?
        The 2005 election was on September 17 2005.
        The report quoted is presmably about a week from the election date.

  27. higherstandard 27
    20 November 2011 at 7:52 am

    If you want confirmation that Horizon polls are utter BS look no further than this.

    http://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/180/nz-first-10-

    Winston first at 10%, I don’t think so Tim.

  28. dd 28
    20 November 2011 at 8:06 am

    So how accurate do you think horizon is?

    The results this AM are pretty interesting.

    ACT New Zealand
    3.4%
    3.2%

    Conservative Party of New Zealand
    4.7%
    4.8%

    Green Party
    12.1%
    12.4%

    Labour Party
    26.8%
    27.6%

    Mana Party
    2.4%
    2.1%

    Maori Party
    1.3%
    1.2%

    National Party
    35.4%
    32.6%

    New Zealand First Party
    10.5%
    10.1%

    United Future
    0.9%
    0.9%

    Surely NZ first is too high in this? Same with conservatives?

    • tsmithfield 28.1
      20 November 2011 at 8:32 am

      Obviously garbage.

      Look at the scores for Act as well. Way too high compared to other polls. The horizon poll is a bit like the drummer who thinks the rest of the band is out of time.

      Has the Horizon poll become the new “Roy Morgan poll” for the left? I notice the Roy Morgan results aren’t bandied around here too often now, since it is no longer co-operating for the left.

      • dd 28.1.1
        20 November 2011 at 8:42 am

        For what reason do you think it would be anymore innaccurate than the other polls?

        The number of participants is a lot higher. Obviously you have to have an interest in politics to partake in the poll. But overall surely you can gauge trends through it? NZ first up-Nats down etc.

        • tsmithfield 28.1.1.1
          20 November 2011 at 9:35 am

          You seem to be questioning its accuracy yourself. There has been a lot of discussion around this poll. Basically the methodology sucks. Garbage in. Garbage out.

          • Draco T Bastard 28.1.1.1.1
            20 November 2011 at 12:17 pm

            The methodology is fine, some of the actors may not be. It has the potential to be the most accurate but they [Horizon] do need to verify the validity of the people participating.

      • Ari 28.1.2
        21 November 2011 at 12:38 am

        We’ll see on election day, but that does look like it’s underpolling National and overpolling NZF and the conservatives. If something like that poll happened, we could be looking at a change in government, and while I think that’s still in the cards, I would have thought that it would have taken a while for John Key’s stuffups this election to really sink in.

    • Colonial Viper 28.2
      20 November 2011 at 8:44 am

      IMO the resuls of Nov 26 will either confirm Horizon’s polling technique – or prove finally that it is maladjusted and untrustworthy.

      • Lanthanide 28.2.1
        20 November 2011 at 9:44 am

        Yes, and I’m thinking it’ll show it to be tosh.

        Because it’s a self-selecting user base, it’s obviously a collection of people interested enough in politics to sign up for it, and to potentially distort things in their own favour.

      • higherstandard 28.2.2
        20 November 2011 at 9:50 am

        IMO the results of the election will confirm that Horizon’s polling technique is maladjusted and untrustworthy.

        In a sensible world they will go bankrupt within a couple of months – therefore I expect them to be contracted by both the government and a number of multinationals to research a number of issues.

        • Ari 28.2.2.1
          21 November 2011 at 12:41 am

          Well, there’s not so much wrong with allowing self-selectors to sign up, IF you weight them by demographics to the nation as a whole. You still might end up with the issue of the enthusiasm gap, but if you’ve got an algorithm that lets you weight overlapping categories, you can just poll people on their enthusiasm about politics too and you’re good to go.

    • Matthew Hooton 28.3
      20 November 2011 at 9:40 am

      I don’t think it is plausible that National, which won 44% of the vote in 2008, has really lost 25% of its supporters over the last three years, so that it is down to circa 33%.

      Similarly, I find it difficult to believe New Zealand First has increased its support by 146% from 4.1% to 10.1%. In 2008, NZ1 got 95,000 votes. This “poll” would have us believe the total number of votes it will get in 2011 will be more like 240,000. With some, er, natural attrition in NZ1’s voting base since 2008, I don’t see where the extra 150,000 plus votes are going to come from.

      The HoS poll this morning seems more plausible to me – see http://www.nzherald.co.nz/election-2011/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503012&objectid=10767410 – although I think National is probably a bit lower than the 56% it suggests, and the combined Labour/Green support base a bit higher than the 37.5% result they got.

      • ianmac 28.3.1
        20 November 2011 at 12:19 pm

        That poll Matthew was for the “The Key Research poll, conducted for the Herald on Sunday…..”
        So not biased I hope?

      • Draco T Bastard 28.3.2
        20 November 2011 at 12:27 pm

        I don’t think it is plausible that National, which won 44% of the vote in 2008, has really lost 25% of its supporters over the last three years, so that it is down to circa 33%.

        http://www.elections.org.nz/elections/resultsdata/general-elections-1996-2005-seats-won-by-party.html
        1999, National, 30.5%
        2002, National, 20.9%

        That’s a ~33% loss so it’s obviously possible.

        Similarly, I find it difficult to believe New Zealand First has increased its support by 246% [Fixed typo] from 4.1% to 10.1%.

        1999, NZ1st, 4.3%
        2002, NZ1st, 10.4%

        • Matthew Hooton 28.3.2.1
          21 November 2011 at 12:48 pm

          I agree that big shifts can happen (like the ones you have pointed out) but I don’t think its plausible that they have happened in the last three years. National’s big slide from 1999 to 2002 was a result of poor leadership in National and strong leadership in Labour. NZ First’s big gain was off a 1999 election where Peters was punished for dealing with Bolger etc, and then he picked up extra centre-right votes in 2002 because of National’s failure. Of the two, I can imagine a 2008-2011 bounce back for NZ1 might be possible, but the big drop in National support over that period suggested by Horizon just doesn’t seem plausible at all. Anyway, we’ll know in five days.

      • Ari 28.3.3
        21 November 2011 at 12:55 am

        I don’t think it fits the mood this election for that large a swing that fast- I’d be ecstatic to be wrong about that, and I understand I’m saying “this doesn’t fit the mood of the populace as I’ve seen it” and that’s an incredibly subjective judgement, but that’s the best reason I can give for why the result doesn’t sit well with me.

        As for your reasoning, this sort of shift is certainly precedented, as Draco points out, to occur mostly away from National and mostly to New Zealand First. In fact, that’s practically what’s kept the party alive all this time. I actually said “owned” out loud when I read that. 😛

        The Herald and Roy Morgan polls probably occured too early to catch much of the shift if there was one, so I’m thinking we won’t really have any steady polling going to the poll that matters at all.

  29. dd 29
    20 November 2011 at 11:44 am

    So is the left doomed? I guess 5 day’s is a long time in politics?…..

  30. Danny Lodge 30
    20 November 2011 at 10:40 pm

    I look forward to 7 days time when the only conversation on this site will be speculation over the next labour leader…

    All you guys have to look forward to is 3 more years of online bitching….

    • fmacskasy 30.1
      21 November 2011 at 12:14 am

      Ever thought of migrating to a One Party state, Danny? They’re quite rare these days, but a few still exist for folks like you who can’t appreciate political diversity. In a century or so, we’ll have to fence off such places and maintain them as reservations…

      You can earn money from tourism, stitching blankets with slogans like “Commies R Evl” and “Better Dead Than red”, and selling them for $2 each.

      Of course, we’ll buy one or two things of you… give’em to family members we really don’t like… and life goes on in the 21st Century, and for you…

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