web analytics

How bad are National’s internals?

Written By: - Date published: 12:33 pm, November 19th, 2011 - 135 comments
Categories: brand key, election 2011, national, polls, scoundrels - Tags:

Some say the tea tapes haven’t hurt Brand Key. In fact, National is down 2% last week and those polls were largely taken before the tea tapes hit overdrive. It also takes time for impressions and media narratives to bed in. The 26th will be the first poll to really tell us how much the tea tapes have hurt. But the internals could give us a clue.

In the first 2 week of the campaign, National averaged 53.3% and 53.2% respectively in the Colmar Brunton, Reid Research, and Digipoll polls. This week, it got 51%.

That’s still enough to govern alone, sure. But with ACT all but dead and Peter Dunne with a good chance of losing, National has a very thin wedge between governing alone and not governing at all. They need at least 48%. A 2.2% fall in a week nearly halves their safety margin.

What caused this sudden fall? Logically, it can only have been the tea tapes.

So, do these polls capture the whole impact of the tea tapes? No. They can’t. Polling for all three was conducted between the 10th and 16th of November.

Here’s a timeline of events so far compared to when the polling was taking place (assumes a seventh of polling is conducted on each of the seven days)

10/11/2011Polling starts
11/11/2011Madhatter’s tea party
12/11/2011
13/11/2011Knowledge of tape emerges. Key and Joyce use ‘News of the World tactics’ line
14/11/2011Key lays Police complaint after he learns 3news has the tape. Hints that tapes contains talk of replacing Brash/’restructuring’ ACT
15/11/2011Key makes distasteful suicide comments. NOTW victims’ lawyer call Key’s comments “cheap shot”. References to old people hinted at.
16/11/2011Key loses his cool and storms out of press conference. Banks’ disasterious interview with Gower. Peters dominates minor leaders’ debate, slams Key.Polling ends
17/11/2011Families of suicide victims speak out against Key’s comparison. He repeats it. Key says it’s OK to waste Police time on his complaint because they have “spare time”. Police say they will execute search warrants on media.Poll shows backlash in Epsom against Key’s endorsement of Banks. TV polls released. Peters hints at more of tape’s contents. Key refuses to engage with question of whether he talked about winning “unbridled power”
18/11/2011Police refute Key’s statement about lazy cops, Key stands by it. Victims of crime speak out. International Federation of Journalists condemns Key. Court date set to determine whether conversation was private.

We can see that this thing began escalating well after polling was already underway. The polls were over 50% complete by the time the tea tape became big news on Monday, and the most damaging events actually took place on the 17th, after polling had ceased entirely.

In that context, it’s actually pretty remarkable that the polls show a 2% drop. And it indicates a much larger fall.

Here’s a pretty simplistic model to explain what I mean. Say National was at 53% when polling started, as it had been throughout the campaign, and lost support steadily as a result of the tea tape saga from the 13th onwards – how much would have had to lose per day between the 13th and the 16th to get a result of 51% in the poll results?

10/11/201153.2
11/11/201153.2
12/11/201153.2
13/11/201151.7
14/11/201150.2
15/11/201148.7
16/11/201147.2
Average51.1

So, a 2% average fall between last week and this one may actually represent a fall of 1.5% a day this week – which takes them into an election-losing 47.2% by Wednesday.

Now, I doubt that National’s fall has actually been so big. There’s statistical noise that might account for some of the change, but, don’t forget, this isn’t 1 poll result that’s shown a fall from a steady 53% to 51% in a week – it’s the average of 3 conducted over the same period.

And, more importantly, don’t forget that the polls were finished before Key made the worst mistake so far – saying the Police had ‘spare time’ to give him special treatment, which was an insult to the victims of the 220,000 unsolved crimes last year – and before the tea tapes ceased being a mere scandal and veered towards constitutional crisis with the Police preparing to raid newsrooms and the international media reporting on us like some banana republic.

People don’t change their minds in an instant anyway. Nor do media narratives. But Brand Key has been shredded by this week, and when people go to reassess their opinions in the last week, particularly during the final two leaders’ debates – Brand Key won’t be such a powerful offset against National’s unpopular policies like asset sales. If you compare the polls to the new Massey study showing 76% oppose asset sales, that means at least 27% until now have opposed asset sales but that has been outweighed by Brand Key. That’s a lot of votes in play if Brand Key is damaged.

Then, there’s the Winston Factor. He’s gaining in the polls. From 2.3% in the 1st week, 2.9% in the second week, suddenly up to 3.5% this week. Again, this is unlikely to capture all the change. The limelight started to shine on Peters on Tuesday, the second to last night of polling. He won the minor leaders’ debate as the final 14% of the polling was being conducted. And, of course, he’s had the boost of polling 4.9% in the Herald poll, which will encourage many people who were wary of wasting their vote on him that it wouldn’t be a waste after all.

The next Fairfax poll will likely also be an incomplete picture. If it’s released on Sunday, it will have been taken from the previous Saturday through to this Friday. So, the full impact of the tea tapes will be diluted by polling conducted before the story began and while it was building.

The final polls at the end of next week may give us a better idea of the impact of the story so far, but remember there’s plenty more to come, including the release of the tape itself, which will likely happen tomorrow in the Herald on Sunday or Wednesday on TV3 (I don’t think that any serious journalist would consider it ethical to withhold this kind of information from the public just before an election).  Only on the 26th will we really know what the impact of the tapes has been.

But the parties’ internal polls would be a nice clue. National and Labour conduct tracking polls, where they survey 200 or 250 people a night and combine the previous 4 or 5 nights’ results to get results. Vernon Small today says that Labour’s internals show a “slight firming in support late in the week”, which could be consistent with a much larger change coming into the tracking poll and displacing older data.

What about National’s internals? Well, we can ask their pollster (sorry, independent commentator who is ‘affiliated with the National Party’ insomuch as their money puts food on his table) David Farrar. David won’t tell us directly. But he’s not exactly a master of bluffing either.

David’s written just 6 posts on the tea tapes. He’s tried to downplay it, attacked the media’s reporting, assisted in National’s personal attack on the cameraman, and even tried to claim it’s bad for Labour (when Labour says they want to talk about policy it’s about positioning themselves above the fray and concentrated on the big issues – they’re not sad that Key is getting the kicking of his life). David’s also been attacking journalists for their reporting of it on Twitter. The only time he’s gone off message was in his initial reaction to Key storming off from the press conference, before he got the party line.

Tellingly, David has started attacking Peters a lot. He’s devoted several recent columns on Stuff and the Herald to casting dire warnings about the return of Peters unless we all obediently vote National.

Clearly, the internal polls are telling David something.

What the polls tells us is that this election is far from over.

-Bright Red


History

135 comments on “How bad are National’s internals?”

  1. mik e 1

    anyone got the latest undecided vote

  2. Horizon on the 16th on undecideds

    http://horizonpoll.co.nz/page/175/six-out-of-1

    I’ve heard elsewhere the internals are not very comforting for National.
    They will pull out the big and dirty game this week, blitzkrieg style as is their wont.

  3. Lanthanide 3

    Formatting in this post is a little screwed up.

    Also I think BR should be given an author login.

  4. weka 4

    “I don’t think that any serious journalist would consider it ethical to withhold this kind of information from the public just before an election”
     
    Then why are they withholding it?

    • Lanthanide 4.1

      At the moment, so they can goad Key into making more terribly bad mistakes.

      This is the kind of coverage Key has never really had before, where the media are hostile and critical of everything he does, instead of just wishy-washy accepting everything he says without real comment.

      • weka 4.1.1

        I’m personally finding it fucking annoying. As much fun as torturing Key is, I don’t see how this serves NZ or the bit of democracy we have here. They should just publish it. Publishing on Weds would be worse than not publishing it all. 
         
        There’s also the issue of people having to cast advance votes. If we need to know what the tapes say, then they need to know that too.

  5. Lanthanide 5

    Here’s an interesting stuff story that gives a better idea behind what might be going on:
    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/polls/5998662/Massey-poll-survey-gives-interesting-reading

    “For Labour supporters, the most common second choice is the Greens at 43 per cent, but note that a pretty substantial 29 per cent of Labour voters say their second choice is National, while 14 per cent choose NZ First.

    “Even more interesting is the second choice of National voters. The most common second choice of National voters is, in fact, Labour at 32 per cent. This is followed by ACT at 21 per cent of the second choice for National voters, and not far behind at 20 per cent are the Greens.”

    Dr Perry said when the second choices of National voters were combined more than 51.4 per cent had opted for a party on the Left.

    • Tom Gould 5.1

      More interesting is that “Among Maori Party voters 38.5 per cent listed Labour as their second choice, 23.1 per cent said NZ First and 23.1 per cent said Greens.” No number is published for National, but has to be 15% at the most, which sends a clear message to Tariana. Of course, as is speculated, even if the Tories get in the mid to high 40s, without lapdogs Banks and Dunne, they are screwed. Winston has ruled out a deal. Tariana is the king maker. And her voters overwhelmingly say “no” to the Tories. No wonder the Tories are in ‘blind panic’ mode? Next week these Tories will get seriously nasty. Watch for ‘no finger prints’ character assassinations, bullying, intimidation, and fake scandals.

    • Uturn 5.2

      “…but note that a pretty substantial 29 per cent of Labour voters say their second choice is National…”

      An oxymoron, surely.

      Hi, I’m a Nat/Lab voter. I like to consider the poor and then bash them down while helping them up to kick them to the ground. I also support the sale of assets while staunchly supporting state owned enterprises. I’m also keenly aware of environmental issues, drilling and mining are unacceptable until the price is right, and climate change doesn’t exist, but it will change our lives.

      I think I’ll write it off to the lies of statistics.

      • felix 5.2.1

        You seem to be assuming that:

        1) everyone is as well informed on those issues as you are, and
        2) that everyone understands both parties’ policy positions on those issues.

        I don’t think either of those are safe assumptions.

  6. Fortran 6

    weka

    The MSM in this country have no ethics, so what’s new.

  7. mik e 7

    So Stuff.co might be 51.4% right when they say ManKey visits Winton could be that next week Stuff.co headline will be visits Winston for a cup of tea as the smiling assassin looks to do a deal!
    Another Stuff up by Jinxed Keys handlers

  8. One of the Masses 8

    “But with ACT all but dead”
    – Just because something is said over & over again doesn’t make it so. A better technique would be for ALL commentators to stay silent on ACT’s demise – instead of goading National supporters in Epsom to vote tactically to keep National in power for this term & potentially the next.

    • Jackal 8.1

      Goad Nat supporters to vote for Banks? I think most of them would rather poke their eyes out.

      A great article Bright Red… I totally agree with your analysis.

    • Ari 8.2

      Epsom have changed their minds in ACT’s favour before, but that was Rodney Hide’s ACT, which was already a lot more uncomfortable for them than Richard Prebble’s ACT. I’m not sure how they’ll feel about a Banks or Brash ACT, and you shouldn’t rely on Banks winning.

  9. Jester 9

    All this made sense right up until Phil appeared on The Nation and still didn’t know any numbers and his two wingmen (the two davids) slipped the knife in betweens Phils ribs.
    Don’t get me wrong, I would hate to see Labour back in govt but part of me sympathizes with him when his two advisors have set him up so ruthlessly.

    • ianmac 9.1

      Of course John Key doesn’t need notes to refer to in answering questions because he never fronts up to be asked those questions. At least Phil does front up to the Nation. Key just refuses. And you Jester get picky about Phil?

  10. How come, then most people according to boards and blogs that aren’t political blame the media, and not national who were the victims of brad white/ambrose covertly taping key.

    • Lanthanide 10.1

      Oh please, Key is a victim now?

      If he didn’t want a publicity stunt where all the press turned up, he shouldn’t have staged one.

  11. Every Poll has in three years has National winning, do you really think all of sudden kiwis are going to turn to Goff?

    • Lanthanide 11.1

      They don’t have to “turn to Goff”. They just have to turn away from National and Key.

    • kriswgtn 11.2

      Still Thinking its FPP ?

      haha clown

      The left need sfa of the swing vote to change the outcome…..

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 11.3

      Most of it is going to Winston, some to the Greens.

    • Ari 11.4

      They have five Party options that could unseat National, (although at this stage I’d feel iffy about giving Mana my Party vote) I’m happy with any of those.

  12. But Brand Key has been shredded by this week, and when people go to reassess their opinions in the last week, particularly during the final two leaders’ debates – Brand Key won’t be such a powerful offset against National’s unpopular policies like asset sales.

    Key will do everything to trip Goff up with the numbers game again and make him look bumblingly oafish with figures. It’s not that hard to do if even Donut Garner can.

    Goff needs a good defense line he can hold. How’s this ?

    “Look John, Im not gonna lie and say i have the greatest head for facts and figures. That’s your forte. I am going to say however that i have a more than capable finance minister in the person of David Cunliffe who does, so if you, or your shonky numbers guy the Rt Honourable Bill English, would care to take up the challenge and debate him on the exact facts and figures you’re more than welcome.”

    • Anne 12.1

      Good one pollywog:
      Why don’t you email your suggested defence line to Phil Goff and to Trevor Mallard. I doubt they – or their staff – have time to read these posts and comments right now.

  13. dd 13

    Someone needs to question Key’s history as well. Explaion to NZers how he made his money.

    They also need to deal with the incorrect statment that Key gives all his pay to charity.

    • marsman 13.1

      I keep hearing that John Key gives all or most of his income to charity, is that not true? Not that it would matter to him, he’ll make a bomb once he’s finished with NZ, all those boards of directors of companies he’s given benefits to.

      • Hami Shearlie 13.1.1

        From what I remember, he claimed to give a portion of his salary to charity – a portion could be any amount, even a paltry $5 couldn’t it? The business Herald a few years ago reported that John Key didn’t have a mortgage on his house, and that he then obtained one and claimed a parliamentary allowance for it. Why would someone with $50 million do something like that?Makes one think? Couldn’t be greed could it?

        • Colonial Viper 13.1.1.1

          He donates to the Waitemata Trust.

        • felix 13.1.1.2

          It’s even more lame than that, Hami. He said he would donate to “good causes”, a piece of phrasing which leaves a lot of room for subjectivity.

          As CV notes, a “good cause” for Key might be the local food bank but might also be the local branch of the National Party.

          Typical Keyspeak, ambiguous vacuous meaningless waffle.

  14. I dreamed a dream 14

    Roy Morgan is out – http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4723/

    🙁 🙁 🙁

    I surrender!

    I await 2014.

    • Jackal 14.1

      I’ve never been rung up… probably because I don’t live in Remuera.

      • lprent 14.1.1

        I have never been rung for a political poll in the last 20 years. Probably because my landline number has been unlisted for more than 20 years. I only get telemarketing from the bank and ISP provider – who know my land line.

        Lyn took a call earlier this week from digipoll (sounded like push polling for telecom from what I could hear). I asked her to check how they got the number (as per my usual policy). It was a random dial – first time ever.

        • Colonial Viper 14.1.1.1

          Elderly neighbour got rung up for a phone poll this morning. He told them his voting intentions were none of their business and hung up. And he’s hard core Labour.

    • ianmac 14.2

      Not over yet mate. Note NZF is at 3%. And a few slippage points will make all the difference.

      • Puddleglum 14.2.1

        NZF is at 3%“.

        That was an interesting result, given that all other polls released recently have NZF ‘surging’. That 3% represents a fall of 1.5% from the previous Roy Morgan.

        That possibly suggests that the latest Roy Morgan is not picking up recent movements but is weighted towards the earlier part of its sampling period (8-18 Nov). That would be just after the ‘show me the money’ week. 

        Edit: The period was 7-18 November

        • Colonial Viper 14.2.1.1

          The statistical noise with the small parties kills any reading of short term trends. +/- 3% margin of error (for instance) makes any result less than 10% a crapshoot.

          • Ari 14.2.1.1.1

            Yep, you can only really rely on polls to give you anything close to accuracy for Labour, National, and now the Greens.

    • ianmac 14.3

      And this poll was over 7-18 November. Only part of that time was during the tea-tape melt down. Watch that space.

    • Lanthanide 14.4

      I was at my parents for dinner on Thursday night and my dad answered the phone. He said that was some asian calling from some place called ‘roy morgan’ so he hung up on them. Pity.

    • mik e 14.5

      some where between 6%&11% undecided vote maybe more

  15. Jim Nald 15

    Maybe for him, charity begins (and gets stalled) at home and with good mates?

  16. Bronson 16

    I’m seriously considering voting for NZ First. The left will need his 6 seats for confidence and supply to form a government.

    • ianmac 16.1

      Just been discussing by Skype with my wife who is overseas for her Special vote. She is also considering NZF for no other reason than as a strategic vote. My loyalty is for Phil Goff but it might be a help for him to have NZF as a means of not having Key in the front seat.

      • fmacskasy 16.1.1

        Ianmac – At this stage, voting for practically any party (Greens, Labour, Mana, Maori, or NZ First) is a good option.

        I’ve taken ‘+1’ on board, and have encouraged two non-voters to enroll and cast special votes. There are two other people living adjacent to us, who have probably never voted. After talking with them, they are now very keen to do so. (They are part of the “Invisibles” to polling – no landline.)

        • Akldnut 16.1.1.1

          Over the past 2 weeks I’ve been in overdrive making sure that everyone I meet and work with go out to vote.

          Of the 500 or so (which includes the people at the mall) about 15 have said they were enrolled but didn’t vote in the last election and will now go in to vote for Labour or a left party. (surprised by the amount who indicated Mana)
          I have also enrolled about 20 new voters who will also be doing the same – the majority going to Labour.

          My pitch is that the number people who didn’t vote last election are the ones who are allowing National to govern, so a non vote is as good as a vote for them.

        • Colonial Viper 16.1.1.2

          Yeah but voting for NZ1 and getting them over the line gets ~6 MPs into Parliament versus zero if they don’t make it.

    • Lanthanide 16.2

      Winston is probably not going to give confidence and supply to either party, he’ll just Abstain.

      • mik e 16.2.1

        Got a bottle and cigar this is just posturing like key won’t do a deal he’ll be only to happy to have him for confidence and supply racing minister I predict.

    • weka 16.3

      Um, remember when NZFirst went into govt with National after telling Labour supporters it would go with Labour? What makes you think Peters would choose Labour this time?
       
      Give your party vote to a party that is actually on the Left.

      • weka 16.3.1

        Not to mention that if NZF don’t reach the 5% threshhold you’ve wasted your vote and effectively given it to National.

        • weka 16.3.1.1

          And the fact that Labour and NZF can’t form a govt, and NZF probably will refuse to work with the Greens. That all points to Peters choosing Nats again.

          • ianmac 16.3.1.1.1

            Weka maybe many of NZF votes will be from those who are disaffected with Act or National so…

            • weka 16.3.1.1.1.1

              I was replying to Bronson who said “I’m seriously considering voting for NZ First. The left will need his 6 seats for confidence and supply to form a government.”
               
              Does anyone think a Labour/Greens/NZF coalition is even remotely likely? Or a Labour/Greens coalition with Mana and NZF support on confidence and supply? Why would NZF even consider that?
               

              • Ari

                Why WOULDN’T NZF consider going into coalition with Labour? Their only success in parliament has been when working with Labour governments.

                Of course, even if they don’t, NZF squeaking past 5% and abstaining on confidence and supply, but weighing in on other bills may be better for parliament than it dropping out at 3.9% or whatever, especially given that they would then have the power to cancel the government whenever they liked.

                • Colonial Viper

                  National is hoping that NZ1 get 4.8% and therefore waste that much anti-National voting sentiment.

    • i will be encouraging some i know to vote NZF although i doubt i will myself.
      the important thing is that NZF doesn’t soak up 4.9% of wasted anti-government vote.

  17. chris73 17

    Well I still think Dunne will hold his seat, Act will win Epsom and bring in another MP (shame it has to be Brash) and National will govern.

    • Colonial Viper 17.1

      Odds are definitely still for National.

      But I reckon ACT is burnt toast.

      • chris73 17.1.1

        The voters in epsom will vote accordingly but more importantly I hope act stays because it gives a voice people who hold those beliefs (much the same as the mana party for example)

        • Colonial Viper 17.1.1.1

          If ACT don’t make the numbers, they don’t deserve to be in Parliament – same as Mana.

      • mik e 17.1.2

        ACT voters might be better voting National then in case their vote is wasted

  18. Lazy Susan 18

    Tellingly, David has started attacking Peters a lot. He’s devoted several recent columns on Stuff and the Herald to casting dire warnings about the return of Peters unless we all obediently vote National.

    Stephen Franks on RNZ yesterday morning was also targetting Peters. This is the NAct’s nightmare scenario because there are many conservative National voters who are very uncomfortable with asset sales yet can’t bring themseleves to vote Labour or Green. With Peter’s now a viable option those Nat voters have got a place to go. The Nats are rattled and Brand Key may be further damaged when the tape is released. Interesting times.

    • RNZ’s panel yesterday was a full-on, wall-to-wall Winston hate-fest.

      Apparently there’s no expectation of balance when the object of criticism is the PM’s enemy.

  19. Latest poll

    Greens are a tad high.

    The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows Prime Minister John Key’s National Party set for a clear victory in next Saturday’s New Zealand election with National (53%, unchanged) increasing its lead over the Labour Party (24.5%, down 1.5%). Support for the Green Party (13%, up 1%) has continued to increase while New Zealand First (3%, down 1.5%), ACT NZ (1.5%, up 0.5%) and United Future ( > 0.5%, unchanged) will all struggle to win seats in the new Parliament.

    • Scott 19.1

      Just watched the interview with the Roy Morgan CEO on Scoop where she concedes that any impact from the teapot tapes is unlikely to show up until further polling is conducted Tue/Wed/Thur next week.

  20. bruno 32 20

    Labour can thank their manky media mates for waking up Epsom voters and keeping Goff out of the news for 25 % of the election campaign.Key is on the home straight and will win by 3 lenghts.After the inquiry ,the greens will be disqualified for foul play and winstone can continue his relationship with Johnny Walker.

  21. Tazirev 21

    Have just had a call in Hamilton from someone claiming to be doing a political poll for TV3 and wanting to talk to males between 17 and 24 and 44 and 55, when I told them there was no one in those age groups here they asked where there any female voters available to be questioned??

  22. SHG 22

    Latest Roy Morgan, released today.

    National (53%, unchanged)
    Labour (24.5%, down 1.5%)
    Green (13%, up 1%)
    Winston First (3%, down 1.5%)
    ACT (1.5%, up 0.5%)
    United Future ( > 0.5%, unchanged)
    Maori (3%, up 1%)
    Mana (1%, unchanged)

    • infused 22.1

      Yep. Nationals hurting real bad guys.

      • McFlock 22.1.1

        Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that nact/uf/mp were on 59%? And that all were likely to be returned to parliament?
         
        The only questionis whether national will lose support quickly enough. For that wecan only rely on shonkey.

      • Lanthanide 22.1.2

        Most Roy Morgan polling is done early in the period where they have less strict demographic requirements.

        So again, we need more recent polls with a more recent polling period.

    • weka 22.2

      Here’s how it looks based on those %s and Maori and Mana getting 4 and 2 Maori seats respectively.
       

      Party            Party Vote     Total MPs                % of MPs

      Green Party     13.00%               17                14.05%
      Labour Party    24.50%               31                25.62%
      Mana                1.00%                 2*                1.65%
      Māori Party        3.0                     4                  3.31%
      National Party   53.00%              67                55.37%
      Totals               94.50%            121              100.00%
       

      http://www.elections.org.nz/voting/mmp/mmp-calculator.html

      • weka 22.2.1

        Except there are seven Maori seats not 6, so that’s not quite right.

        • Alwyn 22.2.1.1

          I think this assumes that Mana get one list MP.
          The other two Maori seats will, probably, stay with the Labour party.
          I know everyone tends to forget them, as neither is particularly charasmatic, but Horomia and Mahutu are still there.

  23. tsmithfield 23

    The biggest hope for the left is that National voters get complacent and don’t turn out. Problem is, the left voters probably won’t turn out either because they see it as a lost cause.

    On the other hand, I think voters would prefer an outright National government compared to a abomination of a coalition involving Labour, Greens, Maori Party, with Mana and NZ First abstaining on confidence and supply.

    • Lanthanide 23.1

      So Labour, Greens and MP. How is that worse than National, ACT, UF and MP?

      L, G and MP all have more in common than N, A, UF and MP. Tariana herself said in the minor party leaders debate that they voted against National more often than not.

      • tsmithfield 23.1.1

        What part of A, UF, and MP is there in “outright National Government”?

        • Puddleglum 23.1.1.1

          Ask Key, He seems to think there’s bits of all of those and – who knows – the Greens too in any government he’ll form.

          • tsmithfield 23.1.1.1.1

            There may well be. But if National has the outright majority they won’t need those parties to get legislation through. It will just be a pat on the head to make them feel important.

            • Colonial Viper 23.1.1.1.1.1

              It will just be a pat on the head to make them feel important.

              Ain’t that the truth.

            • Puddleglum 23.1.1.1.1.2

              So Key will want those parties to sign up to his government without offering them anything? I don’t think there’ll be many takers in that case.

              Key will have to concede some policy points to each of them – that’s what the voters need to contemplate even if National gets an outright majority. (According to Key, anyway). 

            • mik e 23.1.1.1.1.3

              No MMP election has ever produced a govern alone party so this would be a world first.

              • tsmithfield

                There is a first for anything. And we haven’t had that many MMP elections.

                • felix

                  A world first, moron. We’re not the only country using MMP.

                  • Colonial Viper

                    This might turn some stomachs. But it is important to remember that in the event of a win on Nov 26, Key and the NATs will be looking for new coalition partners to join them and to help them secure a third term.

        • Lanthanide 23.1.1.2

          My point is that the existing government is more of an abomination than the one you propose, as the existing government is comprised of 4 parties, not 3, and one of those parties votes more often against the main party than it does with the. That wouldn’t be the case under the 3-party Labour government you outline.

          • tsmithfield 23.1.1.2.1

            Key seems quite good at hearding cats. I am not so sure Goff would have that skill.

            • Alwyn 23.1.1.2.1.1

              There probably isn’t enough time for it but the way the polls are going it would be a Green government with a Labour support party.
              Incidentally, if the Greens were to get more votes than Labour which of the Green party leaders would become the leader of the opposition? There are certain roles, expressed in Legislation, that only appear to anticipate a single leader of the opposition. These are things like being briefed by the head of the SIS.
              I suppose for that one the would probably choose the one with the best memory. It would be better than having someone who didn’t even remember having had the briefing.

          • Ari 23.1.1.2.2

            Not to mention a one-party government is much more scary than a 3- or 4-party government in my opinion. When you’ve got three different parties pulling in slightly different directions, it tends to keep the government honest.

    • locus 23.2

      Your opinion that “a coalition involving Labour, Greens, Maori Party, with Mana and NZ First abstaining on confidence and supply” is an “abomination” reflects the kind of hatred of compromise and bridge-building which is destroying the NZ I’m proud of.

      Thank goodness most decent kiwis are aware of the unpleasant history of divisiveness and unfairness under FPP and will comprehensively support the retention of MMP

  24. tsmithfield 24

    Of course, Act were trailing by a similar margin or worse at the same time last year and still came through and won. I expect the Epsom Nat voters will hold their noses and vote for Banks for the electorate vote.

  25. hadenoughofpolls 25

    Are you lot along with the other political blogs going to ejaculate about polls all next week ?

    Why not just wait until Sunday week and then discuss what has happened instead of working yourselves into such a lather.

    • McFlock 26.1

      2005? And there were some issues with the polling predictions then, as well. Although I grant you it did have Hide 15% behind not 11. When was the 2005 cup of tea?
      Where can we get colmar brunton Epsom results for2008? Closest I’ve found is this, which reckoned the NBR pedicted Hide well ahead in 2008.

    • tsmithfield was referring to “last year [sic]” – i.e., 2008 election – not 2005.

    • mik e 26.3

      Dug that was September 2005 21/2 months from polling day not one week out from poll day !

      • Alwyn 26.3.1

        Where do you get two and a half months from?
        The 2005 election was on September 17 2005.
        The report quoted is presmably about a week from the election date.

  26. higherstandard 27

    If you want confirmation that Horizon polls are utter BS look no further than this.

    http://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/180/nz-first-10-

    Winston first at 10%, I don’t think so Tim.

  27. dd 28

    So how accurate do you think horizon is?

    The results this AM are pretty interesting.

    ACT New Zealand
    3.4%
    3.2%

    Conservative Party of New Zealand
    4.7%
    4.8%

    Green Party
    12.1%
    12.4%

    Labour Party
    26.8%
    27.6%

    Mana Party
    2.4%
    2.1%

    Maori Party
    1.3%
    1.2%

    National Party
    35.4%
    32.6%

    New Zealand First Party
    10.5%
    10.1%

    United Future
    0.9%
    0.9%

    Surely NZ first is too high in this? Same with conservatives?

    • tsmithfield 28.1

      Obviously garbage.

      Look at the scores for Act as well. Way too high compared to other polls. The horizon poll is a bit like the drummer who thinks the rest of the band is out of time.

      Has the Horizon poll become the new “Roy Morgan poll” for the left? I notice the Roy Morgan results aren’t bandied around here too often now, since it is no longer co-operating for the left.

      • dd 28.1.1

        For what reason do you think it would be anymore innaccurate than the other polls?

        The number of participants is a lot higher. Obviously you have to have an interest in politics to partake in the poll. But overall surely you can gauge trends through it? NZ first up-Nats down etc.

        • tsmithfield 28.1.1.1

          You seem to be questioning its accuracy yourself. There has been a lot of discussion around this poll. Basically the methodology sucks. Garbage in. Garbage out.

          • Draco T Bastard 28.1.1.1.1

            The methodology is fine, some of the actors may not be. It has the potential to be the most accurate but they [Horizon] do need to verify the validity of the people participating.

      • Ari 28.1.2

        We’ll see on election day, but that does look like it’s underpolling National and overpolling NZF and the conservatives. If something like that poll happened, we could be looking at a change in government, and while I think that’s still in the cards, I would have thought that it would have taken a while for John Key’s stuffups this election to really sink in.

    • Colonial Viper 28.2

      IMO the resuls of Nov 26 will either confirm Horizon’s polling technique – or prove finally that it is maladjusted and untrustworthy.

      • Lanthanide 28.2.1

        Yes, and I’m thinking it’ll show it to be tosh.

        Because it’s a self-selecting user base, it’s obviously a collection of people interested enough in politics to sign up for it, and to potentially distort things in their own favour.

      • higherstandard 28.2.2

        IMO the results of the election will confirm that Horizon’s polling technique is maladjusted and untrustworthy.

        In a sensible world they will go bankrupt within a couple of months – therefore I expect them to be contracted by both the government and a number of multinationals to research a number of issues.

        • Ari 28.2.2.1

          Well, there’s not so much wrong with allowing self-selectors to sign up, IF you weight them by demographics to the nation as a whole. You still might end up with the issue of the enthusiasm gap, but if you’ve got an algorithm that lets you weight overlapping categories, you can just poll people on their enthusiasm about politics too and you’re good to go.

    • Matthew Hooton 28.3

      I don’t think it is plausible that National, which won 44% of the vote in 2008, has really lost 25% of its supporters over the last three years, so that it is down to circa 33%.

      Similarly, I find it difficult to believe New Zealand First has increased its support by 146% from 4.1% to 10.1%. In 2008, NZ1 got 95,000 votes. This “poll” would have us believe the total number of votes it will get in 2011 will be more like 240,000. With some, er, natural attrition in NZ1’s voting base since 2008, I don’t see where the extra 150,000 plus votes are going to come from.

      The HoS poll this morning seems more plausible to me – see http://www.nzherald.co.nz/election-2011/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503012&objectid=10767410 – although I think National is probably a bit lower than the 56% it suggests, and the combined Labour/Green support base a bit higher than the 37.5% result they got.

      • ianmac 28.3.1

        That poll Matthew was for the “The Key Research poll, conducted for the Herald on Sunday…..”
        So not biased I hope?

      • Draco T Bastard 28.3.2

        I don’t think it is plausible that National, which won 44% of the vote in 2008, has really lost 25% of its supporters over the last three years, so that it is down to circa 33%.

        http://www.elections.org.nz/elections/resultsdata/general-elections-1996-2005-seats-won-by-party.html
        1999, National, 30.5%
        2002, National, 20.9%

        That’s a ~33% loss so it’s obviously possible.

        Similarly, I find it difficult to believe New Zealand First has increased its support by 246% [Fixed typo] from 4.1% to 10.1%.

        1999, NZ1st, 4.3%
        2002, NZ1st, 10.4%

        • Matthew Hooton 28.3.2.1

          I agree that big shifts can happen (like the ones you have pointed out) but I don’t think its plausible that they have happened in the last three years. National’s big slide from 1999 to 2002 was a result of poor leadership in National and strong leadership in Labour. NZ First’s big gain was off a 1999 election where Peters was punished for dealing with Bolger etc, and then he picked up extra centre-right votes in 2002 because of National’s failure. Of the two, I can imagine a 2008-2011 bounce back for NZ1 might be possible, but the big drop in National support over that period suggested by Horizon just doesn’t seem plausible at all. Anyway, we’ll know in five days.

      • Ari 28.3.3

        I don’t think it fits the mood this election for that large a swing that fast- I’d be ecstatic to be wrong about that, and I understand I’m saying “this doesn’t fit the mood of the populace as I’ve seen it” and that’s an incredibly subjective judgement, but that’s the best reason I can give for why the result doesn’t sit well with me.

        As for your reasoning, this sort of shift is certainly precedented, as Draco points out, to occur mostly away from National and mostly to New Zealand First. In fact, that’s practically what’s kept the party alive all this time. I actually said “owned” out loud when I read that. 😛

        The Herald and Roy Morgan polls probably occured too early to catch much of the shift if there was one, so I’m thinking we won’t really have any steady polling going to the poll that matters at all.

  28. dd 29

    So is the left doomed? I guess 5 day’s is a long time in politics?…..

  29. Danny Lodge 30

    I look forward to 7 days time when the only conversation on this site will be speculation over the next labour leader…

    All you guys have to look forward to is 3 more years of online bitching….

    • fmacskasy 30.1

      Ever thought of migrating to a One Party state, Danny? They’re quite rare these days, but a few still exist for folks like you who can’t appreciate political diversity. In a century or so, we’ll have to fence off such places and maintain them as reservations…

      You can earn money from tourism, stitching blankets with slogans like “Commies R Evl” and “Better Dead Than red”, and selling them for $2 each.

      Of course, we’ll buy one or two things of you… give’em to family members we really don’t like… and life goes on in the 21st Century, and for you…

Recent Comments

Recent Posts


History

  • Student debt cracks the billion mark
    New figures showing that student loan defaulters have now clocked over $1 billion in debt highlights National's failure to combat spiralling student loan debt, Labour's Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. "Threatening to arrest returning student loan borrowers at the ...
    3 hours ago
  • Foreign Students just a commodity to National
    National MP Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi has confirmed that his party sees international students as nothing more than a commodity, says Labour's Immigration spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway. "Mr Bakshi’s appalling comparison of some students to 'faulty fridges' that should be returned to ...
    20 hours ago
  • Tolley’s spin on Education spend doesn’t add up
    National’s spin about school funding won’t wash with parents who are paying more and more of the cost of their kids’ education every year, says Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins.  “All the spin in the world can’t hide the fact ...
    22 hours ago
  • National not facing up to export challenge
    “The latest export data from Statistics New Zealand paints a picture of an economy which is not paying its way in the world, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Exports fell 9% - led by milk powder exports falling to ...
    24 hours ago
  • Correction over Talley’s statement
    Labour’s Workplace Relations spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway has been advised by AFFCO Ltd that AFFCO is not advertising for staff in the Manawatu through MSD as stated in a press statement released earlier today.  “I have been advised by AFFCO that ...
    4 days ago
  • Minister, cut your losses – withdraw this doomed Bill
    Local Government Minister Sam Lotu-Iiga’s request for a five month extension on the report back date for the Local Government Act 2002 Amendment Bill (No 2) is an admission that the Bill is fundamentally flawed, says Labour’s Local Government Spokesperson ...
    4 days ago
  • Coleman’s cuts create crisis
    Mental health services in New Zealand are in a state of crisis with Youthline saying that calls for extreme depression doubled last year, says Labour’s Associate Health spokesperson Dr David Clark.  “About 150 young Kiwis are missing out on help ...
    4 days ago
  • Government helping Talley’s to break workers
    The Ministry for Social Development appears to be assisting Talley’s-Affco replace experienced workers effectively locked out by the company, say Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni and Workplace Relations spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway. “MSD is advertising for meat processing workers for ...
    4 days ago
  • Electives lag due to $1.7 billion hole
    The lag in hip and knee replacements is a direct consequence of the Government’s $1.7 billion underfunding of health, says Labour’s Associate Health spokesperson Dr David Clark.  “A comprehensive study by the University of Otago says that the rate of ...
    4 days ago
  • Speech to Master Builders’ Constructive conference
    Today’s all about being Constructive. And that is good because I believe there is a hunger out there for positive solutions. We must be able to believe there can be a better future. ...
    4 days ago
  • Māori Party housing plan complete failure
    The Māori Party’s housing plan to put more Māori into more homes has been a complete failure with fewer than five loans granted per year, says Labour’s Maori Development spokesperson Kelvin Davis. ...
    5 days ago
  • Fund IRD better to go after tax avoiders
    National’s Tax Working Group used the following graph (p30) in 2010 as part of their justification to cut the top tax rate. The big peaks around the top tax threshold were evidence of a suspiciously high number of taxpayers ...
    GreensBy robert.ashe
    5 days ago
  • Pasifika youth ignored by the Government
    The Adolescent Health Research Group’s new report on the wellbeing of young Pacific people shines a spotlight on the Government’s failure  to deliver any “brighter future” for them, says Labour’s Pacific Island Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio.  “Their research shows ...
    5 days ago
  • Police in the provinces are dissatisfied
    Police in the cities of Gisborne, Napier and Hastings are a lot more unhappy than their big city cousins says Labour’s Police Spokesman Stuart Nash.     “In fact the top four districts for enjoyable work within NZ Police are ...
    5 days ago
  • Govt action needed after Wheeler holds
    The Reserve Bank Governor’s warning that “excessive house price inflation” is posing a risk to financial stability puts the pressure back on the Government to take action to address the housing crisis, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Graeme Wheeler’s ...
    5 days ago
  • Minister confirms – new ministry only about abuse
    ...
    6 days ago
  • Silver Ferns Farms decision a tragedy
    The rubber stamping by the Overseas Investment Office of the Shanghai Maling buyout of Silver Fern Farms is a sorry day for the once proud New Zealand meat sector, says Labour’s spokesperson for Primary Industries, Damien O’Connor.  “Generations of Kiwis ...
    6 days ago
  • Benching Nick Smith first step to Kermadec solution
    Side-lining Nick Smith must be the first step in sorting out the Government's Kermadec debacle, says Labour's Fisheries Spokesperson Rino Tirikatene. “Last week Labour called for Nick Smith to be removed from further negotiations with Te Ohu Kaimoana over the ...
    7 days ago
  • Parents, schools, teachers oppose bulk funding
    Overwhelming opposition to the National Government’s school bulk funding proposal is unsurprising and Hekia Parata should now unequivocally rule out proceeding with the idea, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Bulk funding could only lead to bigger class sizes or ...
    7 days ago
  • MBIE gives up on enforcing the law
      The Government must provide labour inspectors with the resources they need to enforce basic employment law after reports that MBIE is only prosecuting the worst cases, says Labour’s Workplace Relations and Safety spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway.  “Today’s news that MBIE ...
    7 days ago
  • West Coast population declines amid bleak economic forecast
    Despite the country experiencing record population growth, the number of people living in the West Coast fell, highlighting struggles in the region from low commodity prices and a poor economic forecast, says Labour’s Economic Development spokesperson David Clark. “The latest ...
    7 days ago
  • Recovery roadblocks cause for concern
    Strong pressure on mental health services, a flagging local economy and widespread issues with dodgy earthquake repairs are all causes for concern for people in Canterbury according to a new survey, says Labour’s Canterbury spokesperson Megan Woods. “Today the CDHB’s ...
    1 week ago
  • Motel purchase must not kick people onto the street
    The Government’s purchase of a South Auckland motel to house the homeless must come with a promise that the current long term tenants will not be kicked out onto the streets, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “It is bizarre ...
    1 week ago
  • Not everyone singing along to so-called rock star economy
    The Westpac McDermott Miller Confidence Survey shows there is serious unease about the economy’s ability to deliver benefits to many New Zealanders, despite the Government trumpeting headline figures, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “According to this survey a significantly ...
    1 week ago
  • Youth no better off under National’s “guarantee”
    John Key’s Youth Guarantee is such a spectacular failure that those who undertake the programme are more likely to end up on a benefit and less likely to end up in full-time employment than those who don’t, Leader of the ...
    1 week ago
  • More low-skilled students becoming residents
    New figures showing international students now make up nearly 40 per cent of all principal applicants approved for New Zealand residency and that their skill level has fallen dramatically, are further evidence that National’s immigration system is broken, says Labour’s ...
    1 week ago
  • 35% of offshore speculators paying no tax
    Offshore investors are aggressively exploiting tax breaks to pay no tax on their rental properties according to IRD data released by Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “35% of offshore investors are paying no tax on their properties, and are pocketing ...
    1 week ago
  • Friday fish dump stinks
    This government has dumped bad news on a Friday to try to avoid political scrutiny in Parliament, says Labour’s Environment spokesperson David Parker. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • OECD report card: National must try harder
    The OECD report on education shows there’s much more to be done for young Kiwis, Labour’s education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Kermadec stoush shows Maori Party double-standards
    The Māori Party’s reaction to the trampled Treaty rights and the Government’s lack of consultation on the Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary reeks of the same arrogant mismanagement of the unpopular Maori land reforms, Ikaroa-Rāwhiti MP Meka Whaitiri says. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Flawed fish dumping calls
    The finding that MPI failed to properly enforce the law even when it had evidence of fish dumping seriously damages the trust and credibility of the Ministry, the industry and this Government, Labour's Fisheries Spokesperson Rino Tirikatene says. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Sidestepping Smith should be side-lined
    Nick Smith's arrogance and disrespect towards Māori is putting the future of the Kermadec Ocean Sanctuary at risk and he needs to excuse himself from further negotiations with Te Ohu Kaimoana, Labour's Fisheries spokesperson Rino Tirikatene says. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government must respond to cash for jobs scam
    Urgent Government action is required to halt  the emerging cash-for-jobs immigration scandal that is taking hold in New Zealand says Labour’s Immigration Spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway.  “Stories of rogue immigration agents scamming thousands of dollars from migrant workers are just further ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government dragging its feet on surgical mesh
    Jonathan Coleman is dragging his feet over any action to protect New Zealanders from more disasters with surgical mesh, says Health Spokesperson Annette King.  “The Government’s pathetic response is to claim all will be fixed by a new regime to ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour’s baby number app goes gangbusters
    An interactive tool that celebrates Labour’s achievements in health over the decades has become an online hit, says Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King.  “Since the tool was launched last night, 18 thousand people have used it to find their baby ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Real disposable income falls in last three months
    Kiwis are working harder than ever but real disposable income per person fell in the last quarter thanks to record population increases, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson said. ‘In Budget 2016 the National Government said that what mattered most for ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Baby number app celebrates Labour achievements
    Labour has launched an interactive tool that allows New Zealanders to take a look back at our achievements in health over the decades, says Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King.  “Today is the 78th anniversary of the Social Security Act 1938, ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Legal experts unpick Māori land reforms
    One of New Zealand’s top law firms has joined the chorus of legal experts heavily critical of the controversial Te Ture Whenua Maori Bill, adding more weight to the evidence that the reforms fall well beneath the robust legal standards ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Industries most reliant on immigration worst offenders
    The industries most reliant on immigration are the worst offenders when it comes to meeting their most basic employment obligations, says Labour’s Immigration spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway.  “The industries that are most reliant on immigration are Hospitality, Administration, Agriculture, Forestry and ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Time to remove law that discriminates against sole parents
    It’s time to repeal a harmful law that sanctions those who do not name the other parent of their child, Labour’s Social Development Spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni says. “Every week, 17,000 children are missing out because their sole parent is being ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government handling of Kermadecs threatens Treaty rights
    ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Prime Minister should give Police Minister some backbone
    The Prime Minister should condemn the ridiculously light sentence given to Nikolas Delegat for seriously assaulting a police woman, Labour’s Police spokesman Stuart Nash says. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government listens to Labour on family violence
    Labour is pleased the Government has finally acted on strengthening a range of measures against family violence, says Labour’s spokesperson on Family Violence Poto Williams.  “Some of the latest changes including a new family violence offence of non-fatal strangulation is ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government must rethink paying for police checks
    National’s decision to ignore the concerns of charities will see the voluntary sector face hundreds of thousands of dollars in new costs if the Policing (Cost Recovery) Amendment Bill passes, says Labour's Community and Voluntary Sector spokesperson Poto Williams.  “National’s ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Seven months for families in cars to be housed
    Disturbing new figures show it is now taking the Ministry of Social Development an average of seven months to house families who are living in cars, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says.  “John Key made a song and dance ...
    2 weeks ago
  • North Korea test must be condemned
    The nuclear test by North Korea that registered 5.3 on the Richter scale needs to be condemned, says Labour’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson David Shearer. “This test, coming hard on the heels of a missile launch a few days ago, shows ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Tribe footing the bill for Maori Party?
     Waikato-Tainui deserve committed representation, yet the President of the Maori Party is muddying the waters by confusing the core business of the tribe with party politics, says Labour’s Hauraki-Waikato MP Nanaia Mahuta.  “The only way to fix this growing negative ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Schools set to lose millions
    Schools will start 2017 grappling with a $7.8 million funding cut, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Hekia Parata has been adamant changes to the way our schools are funded would see them better off. ...
    3 weeks ago
  • 70% of families in cold, damp homes powerless to fix them
    Shocking new figures out today show 70 per cent of the families living in cold, damp homes are powerless to make improvements because they are in rental properties, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “The 2016 Household Incomes Report highlights ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Wealth inequality at record levels
    The housing crisis is making inequality worse, with housing costs in New Zealand now way out of proportion for those on the lowest incomes, according to the 2016 Household Incomes Report, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Most New Zealanders ...
    3 weeks ago


History


History


History