Judith vs John

Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, May 12th, 2014 - 46 comments
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Judith Collins has her back against the wall.

Weeks of intense scrutiny finally took its toll which culminated in her crazy attack of journalists last week.

And the very last thing John Key wants in the lead up to the election is a damaged relationship with the media.

So was Judith’s media-attack an irrational outburst?

The consensus view is this was classic bully behaviour, Collins being more than happy to dish out the punishment but predictably she was unable to handle it herself.

But as I said in my last post, the John Key/Bill English faction is trying to drive Judith out of the National party.

In light of that, Collins’ media attack looks less like an irrational emotional response and more like a message to John Key.

That messages is ‘Screw with me and I will ruin your re-election chances’

And what are her options? If Key is trying to get rid of Collins then she can either:

a) go quietly (yeah right)

b) improve her negotiating position

What better way to do accomplish b) than to show John what she is capable of?

Sure, it looks bad for her but if Key is getting rid of her anyway then she has nothing to lose.

I think Judith’s plan might be that if John plans to destroy her then she is more than willing to take him down with her.

46 comments on “Judith vs John ”

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  1. One Anonymous Bloke 1
    12 May 2014 at 10:10 am

    If the intention was Machiavellian, the execution was trainwreck.

    That was Key’s chance to sack her from cabinet. Now he just looks owned 🙂

  2. mickysavage 2
    12 May 2014 at 10:24 am

    There is a great deal of credibility in what Geoff says.

    The stuff that I have seen suggests there are three distinct groups in National and they are at each other’s throats. They are extraordinarily good at it too. The undermining and back stabbing is of a extraordinarily high quality.

    Crusher’s problem is that she believed in her own PR. And I suspect that she still does. She has not realised yet that she and Slater have been turned from being an asset to the party into a liability in a very short space of time.

    Slater is clearly despised by two of the factions and the undermining of him has also been clinical.

    This will test Key’s skills. How does he keep an appearance of unity within the party and stop the factions from doing each other over in public.

    Interesting times …

    • aerobubble 2.1
      12 May 2014 at 10:35 am

      I don’t follow Slater but I felt that forcing a re-election so soon after Brown second term victory was somewhere between dumb and drooling retarded.

      • mickysavage 2.1.1
        12 May 2014 at 10:43 am

        Agreed although there did seem to be a belief that they could somehow get rid of Brown and install Palino as Mayor. It takes heavy duty drugs to create this sort of removal from reality usually …

        • Lanthanide 2.1.1.1
          12 May 2014 at 12:37 pm

          Their timing couldn’t have been worse, really.

          8 weeks ahead of the election, they might have won it. 18 months after the election, they might have got the resignation they wanted.

          1 week after the election?

          • Tracey 2.1.1.1.1
            12 May 2014 at 2:00 pm

            but the idea that palino would get the mayorlty automatically after a resignation was bewildering.

          • RedBaronCV 2.1.1.1.2
            12 May 2014 at 10:32 pm

            It was the CEO who spent the money, so they had to go before the council was sworn in otherwise the council would have had to approve the spending, and I couldn’t see them agreeing to the unethica/biased investigation that took place
            Still not convinced that there isn’t an “authorising the spend” problem that the audit office should be onto.

      • geoff 2.1.2
        12 May 2014 at 10:48 am

        Check out this Audrey Young article:
        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11252568

        Funny quote…

        “Judith is a very kind and compassionate person,” says former party president John Slater.

        Priceless.

    • veutoviper 2.2
      12 May 2014 at 10:44 am

      Good post, Geoff. Like MS, I also think there is a lot of credibility in your reasoning of the situation.

      Earlier this morning, I replied to a comment on the Polity:Trevett wrong on polls that:

      I don’t have time to find links, but quite a number of times when Collins has been answering questions re Oravida in Parliament and to the media , she has made remarks such as “You need to ask Mr Key/the PM about that” and similar. The timing and tone of these remarks etc has been such that I read these as an indirect challenge/threat to Key – eg, I dare you JK – if you don’t back me, I’ll land you in it big time.

      The three factions in National have been around for a long time, but kept fairly quiet and under the radar until now. I am not sure of the breakdown by individual MPs in each camp as I have not taken much interest until now , and would be interested if anyone has a rough list for each.

      But certainly interesting times. It remains to be seen what will play out this week. Somehow, my instincts tell me that all attention will not divert to the Budget and the Collins dilemma will not fade into the background.

    • Bearded Git 2.3
      12 May 2014 at 10:52 am

      I can imagine working closely with Crusher for the last 12 years would start to drive everyone troppo.

    • phillip ure 2.4
      12 May 2014 at 11:45 am

      “..Slater is clearly despised by two of the factions and the undermining of him has also been clinical…”

      the same thing is happening in america..

      ..the republicans are pushing the tea-party further and further away..

      ..i guess in both places the pendulum couldn’t have swung any further right..

      “..The GOP’s Vicious Internal War: Republican Establishment Trying To Exile Tea Partiers And Extremists..”

      http://www.alternet.org/tea-party-and-right/gops-vicious-internal-war-republican-establishment-trying-exile-tea-partiers-and

    • Clemgeopin 2.5
      12 May 2014 at 12:19 pm

      If National’s poll rating goes down below 40%, the factions will privately begin to implode the party in a public way.

      The PPPPP : Public Private Partnership Political Putsch

    • Tracey 2.6
      12 May 2014 at 2:23 pm

      mightcollins go to ACT?

      • Draco T Bastard 2.6.1
        12 May 2014 at 7:07 pm

        Nope, I think you’ll find that she’s too authoritarian even for that bunch of over entitled idiots.

    • Once was Tim 2.7
      12 May 2014 at 6:32 pm

      That’s a pretty astute analysis MS. It’s also why some of the more decent folk in the train wreck that’s today’s Neshnool Party are choosing to desert.
      If there’s one thing that Sludge-in-Chief pretender and his blogosphere alter-ego seems to have overlooked (alongside his battlers who’ve pre-occupations with camping, fire arms and spin meisters generally) is that there are opponents who’re as fundamentally dishonest, dirty and dysfunctional. It d oesn’t just apply to the pretender-in-chief either – but equally to the other factions as well.
      I think it was Bomber Bradbury that publicly identified these so-called ‘factions’ a while ago.

      They’re equally as fucked up, and their longevity will always be reliant on the competence?? (entirely wrong word) of their spin-meisters.
      Pathological is what it is. Each faction spins and tells so many half-truths, lies, etc… with pepperings of truths till they become so oberwhelmed with their own crocodile shit, they forget the crap they offloaded a few weeks back gets pissed all over by the urine that’s now coming out. And we’re not supposed to notice.

      Someone should send them a tweet, or a txt or something …… to the effect that it really would be a damn sight easier for them to just get a little honest.

      Although it’s a cross-party phenomenon (all that polly dysfunction and personality disorder – by whatever measure you choose) … it does seem to be hitting the Natzis hardest (National/Act).

      I will desert this country for the 3rd world (where corruption is at least OPEN, rather than hidden) should the sheeple allow another term of the BS artists, but FFS!
      Key….
      Joyce ……
      English ….
      Parata …. (geez I almost bought a house off her hubby! FARK – close shave)
      Bennett! …. (If she was smart, she’s have patented that ladder retraction mechanism – except it was stolen in the first place)
      Bridges! … (Jesus H. Christ! …. Bridges!!! – he passed a law degree apparently – looking into that because he really IS pretty bloody FICK – it’s either that or just incredibly LAZY and arrogant)

      God – the list goes on. The smartest of them intend retiring it seems to a location where they should be thankful we’re not in an era of Piggy Muldoon .v. Colin Moyle and bog crawling (whilst all-the-while, protesting a Catholic moral high ground) is now so passe. Actually NOT just one such.

      Thankfully, after quite a few years, Mallard and King have begun to redeem themselves. They really should keep it up and participate in the programme that counteracts all that BS – rather than participate in it (as they have till now)

      /endrave2

  3. Penny Bright 3
    12 May 2014 at 10:52 am

    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/billion-dollars-extra-expenditure-no-lolly-scramble-pm-ck-155948

    PM reacts to Peters’ claim that ‘Collins will not survive next week, with what I know’

    “I will personally come into this studio and apologise if Winston Peters is right. He won’t be right. He’s never right,” Mr Key said.

    DESPERATE stuff from the Prime Minister!

    Is he going to recommend to himself to take some stress leave before he sacks himself for not exhibiting the ‘highest ethical standards’ to which he is supposed to hold his Ministers accountable?

    The N.Z Cabinet Manual

    http://cabinetmanual.cabinetoffice.govt.nz/files/manual.pdf

    2.52 A Minister of the Crown, while holding a ministerial warrant, acts in a number of different capacities:

    1.in a ministerial capacity, making decisions, and determining and promoting policy within particular portfolios;

    2.in a political capacity as a member of Parliament, representing a constituency or particular community of interest;

    3.in a personal capacity.

    2.53 In all these roles and at all times, Ministers are expected to act lawfully and to behave in a way that upholds, and is seen to uphold, the highest ethical standards. Ultimately, Ministers are accountable to the Prime Minister for their behaviour..

    Penny Bright

    • dv 3.1
      12 May 2014 at 10:56 am

      What Key is saying is I WONT SACK HER under any possible .

    • Rosie 3.2
      12 May 2014 at 1:49 pm

      May the force be with you Winston, you wiley ol’ fox with tricks up your sleeve 🙂

    • Tracey 3.3
      12 May 2014 at 2:26 pm

      all key has to do is not sack her next week and peters is wrong.

      i want peters to be right, but…

      • RedBaronCV 3.3.1
        12 May 2014 at 10:38 pm

        After the ferry bottom grounding issue I think we can assune that Winston knows something interesting and will wave it around for as long as possible..Besides doesn’t everyone leak to him?

  4. ianmac 4
    12 May 2014 at 10:56 am

    I put this on Open Mike be better here:
    What What What is this all about?
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11253498
    Prime Minister John Key will make a public apology if new information about Justice Minister Judith Collins emerges and forces her out of the job this week.

    Mr Key made the promise on TVNZ this morning in response to a claim made by New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.

    “Judith Collins will not survive next week with what I know,” Mr Peters said during a debate on the network’s Marae programme yesterday.
    “I will personally come into this studio if Winston Peters is right,” he told TVNZ.

    “He won’t be right, he’s never right.”

    And did you know that Judith is only coming back for the Budget then:

    Ms Collins is due to return to Parliament for the Budget this week, before resuming leave.
    News to me!

    • Tracey 4.1
      12 May 2014 at 11:23 am

      i too didnt know her leave was extended beyong tnis week. lets see the medical certificate now national, thats what you wanted for employers to ensure no one is taking the piss.

      • Delia 4.1.1
        12 May 2014 at 11:31 am

        What they mean is she is off work this Friday after the budget and back on Monday next week. She is officially of work from last Thursday until Friday this week, that is what I understood.

    • karol 4.2
      12 May 2014 at 11:31 am

      So Collins vote is needed for the budget?

      • Tracey 4.2.1
        12 May 2014 at 11:36 am

        clever observation karol…

        if mp grew a pair and voted against the budget, govt still has numbers with

        for sale to the highest bidder and
        taking the money and perks but no longer working for epsom?

      • dv 4.2.2
        12 May 2014 at 12:34 pm

        So here is the discussion

        Joyce- you have sent her off until next friday?
        Key- Yep
        J What about the budget numbers?
        Key Oh s…

  5. Tracey 5
    12 May 2014 at 11:21 am

    collins may have spent the weekend weighing up job offers. the nats way is to find well paying positions in the private sector or in a diplomatic post. however having owned her own lawfirm, plus business interests and husbands income, she was probably pulling half to a million a year or more.

    am thinking aloud cos i cant get my head around how she could think essentially knee capping the govt in election year will lead to her appointment as next nat leader.

  6. fambo 6
    12 May 2014 at 1:17 pm

    The longer Judith keeps her position the better, for the opposition. The benefit for the opposition from having her in power right up to the election is greater than if she goes now – long term, slow release toxicity. Her presence also undermines John’s position by raising the question in people’s mind of what she has over him, that he can’t get rid of her, as he did Maurice.

  7. Clemgeopin 7
    12 May 2014 at 2:18 pm

    Interesting political debate on the Marae programme yesterday between
    NF(Winston Peters), Labour (Nanaia Mahuta,), Maori Party (Te Ururoa Flavell), National (Jamie Lee Ross), Mana (Annette Sykes) and The Green Party (Metiria Turei)

    Winston said he had more revealation re Collins this week. He also referred to Jamie Lee Ross as Collins baggage carrier! The after debate panel comments by Wilie Jackson were funny regarding Winston..

    Watch it below if interested:

    http://tvnz.co.nz/marae/2014-05-11-video-5968584

    • Tracey 7.1
      12 May 2014 at 2:30 pm

      is jamie lee ross Maori?

      • tc 7.1.1
        12 May 2014 at 3:20 pm

        Part maori, loves to insert references to his time on the marae as a youngster and attempts to show how in touch with those his party loves bashing. Like bennett he is happy to trade on his upbringing within a party of elitists.

        No formal qualifications, at 28 so far he’s a career trougher who learned under Williamson and a reflection how little nat value anywhere he goes as he’s a complete tool who last I saw was being carpeted by the native affairs host for the vacuous sloganista he is.

      • JAK 7.1.2
        12 May 2014 at 5:28 pm

        No more than John Key is Pakeha.

  8. Penny Bright 8
    12 May 2014 at 3:49 pm

    FYI

    ‘Open Letter/OIA request to NZ Prime Minister John Key:

    “Where is the information that proves Minister of Justice Judith Collins informed Oravida that it ‘may not use any photos taken of the Minister at the event or to publicise the event’?

    NZ Prime Minister
    John Key

    Dear Prime Minister,

    Because your Minister of Justice Judith is currently on leave (at your request), I am referring this OIA to yourself.

    Please be reminded of the following provisions of the NZ Cabinet Manual:

    Specifically :

    “2.89 When accepting an invitation, a Minister should inform the organisation that it may not:

    (a) use any photos taken of the Minister at the event; or
    (b) publicise the event, ”

    http://cabinetmanual.cabinetoffice.govt.nz/files/manual.pdf

    Fees, endorsements, and outside activities
    Product endorsement

    2.87 No Minister should endorse in any media any product or service. Ministers may, however, appear in party political advertisements or in non-political advertisements or announcements in the public interest (promoting, for example, water safety), where no fee would be expected or accepted.

    2.88 Ministers receive many invitations for events and speaking engagements. Ministers should carefully consider which invitations they will accept, and try to honour invitations from a variety of organisations.

    2.89 When accepting an invitation, a Minister should inform the organisation that it may not:

    (a) use any photos taken of the Minister at the event; or
    (b) publicise the event,

    2.90 In speeches, it is appropriate for a Minister to speak positively about the objectives and achievements of an organisation or business.
    It is not appropriate for a Minister to explicitly promote that organisation, or its products or services.

    Fees and other payments

    2.91 Ministers often appear at conferences or other gatherings to explain and discuss government policies and plans. This is an integral function of government, for which the state would expect to meet expenses and no appearance fee would be expected or accepted.

    2.92 If an appearance fee or other personal payment for any non-ministerial activity is offered to a Minister, the Minister may accept it only with the agreement of the Prime Minister.

    Such a payment must be declared in that member’s annual disclosure of pecuniary interests. Unsolicited payments should be returned. With the agreement of the Prime Minister, fees may be accepted and donated directly to a recognised charity, but must still be declared (with an explanatory note).
    Ministers of the Crown: Appointment and Role 31

    2.84 Although cultural gifts may be offered to a Minister with the best of intentions, accepting such gifts may create a perception of a conflict of interest or accusations of “double dipping”. Ministers should return gifts of cash immediately, with a respectful statement explaining that they honour the intent behind the gift, but that it is their job to serve, and that they are already well remunerated for their work.

    2.85 Acceptance of other cultural gifts such as fine mats or food is unlikely to create the same perception problems. The guidance in paragraphs 2.78 – 2.79 should be followed in such cases.

    ‘The event’ being the ‘Visit and Tour of the Oravida Facilities on 23 October 2014, (as described on pg 83 and 84 in the following PDF)

    http://img.scoop.co.nz/media/pdfs/1405/020520141724330001.pdf

    Please provide the information which confirms that your Minister of Justice Judith Collins, informed Oravida

    ” that it may not:

    (a) use any photos taken of the Minister at the event; or

    (b) publicise the event”

    Yours sincerely,

    Penny Bright

    Attendee: 2009 Australian Public Sector Anti-Corruption Conference
    Attendee: 2010 Transparency International Anti-Corruption Conference
    Attendee: 2013 Australian Public Sector Anti-Corruption Conference

    2013 Auckland Mayoral candidate (polled 4th with 11,723 votes, campaigning against corrupt corporate control of the Auckland region)

  9. Marius 9
    12 May 2014 at 4:18 pm

    looking at that header photo of Collins… I’m seriously beginning to think she is Key in drag

  10. Skinny 10
    12 May 2014 at 4:45 pm

    National will be hoping the voting public believes the recent CB poll saying no damage has been done to their popularity. I dispute this belief, and think major ‘trust issues’ are now firmly in the forefront of voters minds. 

    The longer Collins sticks around the further the National’s vote erodes away.

    There is probably 2 hundred thousand swing voters who will have a question mark over trusting a third term National/ACT Government. Many of this group would rest more at ease if Winston Peters NZF were there to keep National/ACT from turning ugly with a lurch hard right.

    If NZF totally reject siding with a National lead Government prior to the election, then I predict mayor swing vote slippage. If this was to occur, and all indications from Winston says this may well happen, then Key-National will rapidly drop in the polls.

     From there general support will slump in a domino effect, as other people wake up to the deceit. Let’s face it most people like to back a winner not a loser team. So National will be easy to dismiss as a ‘has been Government’ caught out embroiled in its own self serving tendencies, commonly known as crony capitalism.

    • Bearded Git 10.1
      12 May 2014 at 5:49 pm

      Hey Skinny-23% said they might change their vote on this issue. This is heaps of damage.

      MSM hasn’t really looked closely at the implications of this.

      • Skinny 10.1.1
        12 May 2014 at 7:18 pm

        Quite Bearded Git…National have preached the rock star economy, however the stats are proof that pay rises are static, with 50 % of workers not seeing a sausage of the neo liberal line of the fallacy which is the ‘trickle down effect’ in the last year. National are exposed as being full of shit.

        If National & greedy Employers think a 2.5 % pay rise is going to cut it, especially after seeing the wealthy in our society, who pay little if any taxes getting richer at their expense. They need to think again as Unionised workplaces are fighting back, witnessed last week where some port workers took industrial action and downed tools to achieve a result around 5%.

  11. karol 11
    12 May 2014 at 7:11 pm

    Crap. Wrong thread. Meant it to be on open mike.

  12. repateet 12
    12 May 2014 at 7:16 pm

    Was Judith’s media-attack an irrational outburst? The whole scene was orchestrated and deliberate.

    If it wasn’t, Collins was totally out-of-control and/or in the middle of a breakdown.