National’s 2017 election list

21 comments on “National’s 2017 election list ”

• Comments are now closed

1. Policy Parrot 1

   30 July 2017 at 1:32 pm

   Re: Stacey Jones

   – You would have thought that a political journo would know better huh? But there was that infamous one party majority that was achieved on the election night 2014 (subsequently came back to 60, and then 59 by March 2015) that may have made those with less analytical skills believe a higher percentage had been achieved (instead Nats actually benefited from over 5% total vote wastage)
2. The Real Matthew 2

   30 July 2017 at 1:32 pm

   I think Stacey is talking about the absolute vote rather than the percentage vote though agree it is a little unclear.

   In Poll of Polls National is running at 46-47% so less than 42% seems a little pessimistic. At current polling National is looking at 12-13 new MP’s which represents a reasonable re-generation.

   Would be interesting to compare regeneration with the other parties on a same vote basis based on the last election.
   • lprent 2.1

     30 July 2017 at 1:59 pm

     Perhaps the same kind of “perspective” would be usefulnto apply to the poll of polls?

     At this point in 2014, from memory it had National at over 50% on their own. Some of the more screwed polls from the usual suspects had them getting 55 or 56%. In the end they got 47%.

     Basically polls are essentially useless for accurracy this far our except to indicate trend rather than results. All the polls are showing National being well below their 2014 or 2011 level.

     If you want to be a meme sprouting dickhead here, then at least learn to be an accurate one. Bad enough having the stupid spinning from political journalists. We really don’t need it from commenters as well.
3. swordfish 3

   30 July 2017 at 2:40 pm

   Nat support in last 4 Polls – compared same point in previous electoral cycles
   (Reply to The Real Matthew)

   UMR (5-10 July)
   Nat … 42%

   UMR 2 months out
   2008-2017 Nat …51% … 42% …Down 9
   2011-2017 Nat …54%… 42%…. Down 12
   2014-2017 Nat …48% … 42%… Down 6

   Roy Morgan (26 June – 9 July)
   Nat … 43%

   RM 2 months out
   2008-2017 Nat …48% … 43% …Down 5
   2011-2017 Nat …57%… 43%…. Down 14
   2014-2017 Nat …51% … 43%… Down 8

   Colmar Brunton (1–5 July)
   Nat … 47%

   CB 2 months out
   2008-2017 Nat …53% … 43% … Down 10
   2011-2017 Nat …56%… 47%….. Down 9
   2014-2017 Nat …52% … 47%…. Down 5

   Reid Research (approx. 2-11 June)
   Nat … 47%

   RR 3 months out
   2008-2017 Nat …48% … 47% … Down 1
   2011-2017 Nat …54%… 47%……Down 7
   2014-2017 Nat …50% … 47%…. Down 3

   (figures rounded for simplicity)
   • Enough is Enough 3.1

     30 July 2017 at 3:45 pm

     How does that compare with the way the polls were showing the left parties. From recollection they greatly undershotthe support that Labour got
4. Gabby 4

   30 July 2017 at 4:13 pm

   They’ll pop in a name for Clutha Southland after the election.
   • Karen 4.1

     30 July 2017 at 4:58 pm

     I wonder how the seven candidates ranked below “TO BE CONFIRMED” feel?
5. Roy 5

   30 July 2017 at 4:19 pm

   Look how high Woodhouse and Guy are! I mean seriously, haven’t they been there long enough, without any decent achievements? I think e.g. Maggie and Nikki are awful, but at least they’ve done something.

   Pretty sad bunch.
   • tc 5.1

     30 July 2017 at 6:16 pm

     Just different flavours of awful really.
6. WILD KATIPO 6

   30 July 2017 at 6:03 pm

   1 Bill English ——— Listing to port
   2 Paula Bennett——– Upper creek
   3 David Carter ——– Without a paddle
   4 Steven Joyce ——– Listening to tapes
   5 Gerry Brownlee ——– From Clutha under
   6 Simon Bridges ——–Ten new bridges
   7 Amy Adams ——– Promised for
   8 Jonathan Coleman ——–Northland
   • peterlepaysan 6.1

     30 July 2017 at 8:24 pm

     Cheers.
7. Muttonbird 7

   30 July 2017 at 8:54 pm

   Who’s David Carter? Never heard from him.
   • Incognito 7.1

     30 July 2017 at 9:05 pm

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_New_Zealand_House_of_Representatives
     • Muttonbird 7.1.1

       30 July 2017 at 9:32 pm

       Oh right. The bent ref who lets the National Party get away with question dodging in the house.

       Why the hell is he so high on their list? Being a crooked official must be an important position in the eyes of the National Party and all their supporters.
       • Incognito 7.1.1.1

         30 July 2017 at 10:13 pm

         Three wise monkeys.
   • WILD KATIPO 7.2

     30 July 2017 at 9:12 pm

     Whose David Carter ?

     Mate of Bruce Bayliss down Taihape way.
8. Labour_Voter 8

   31 July 2017 at 12:30 am

   Guys – I am so thrilled you are all making fun of National list. Great achievement. Meanwhile I am worried to death that our party is at 24% in the latest opinion poll. None of you seem to care about that and suggest any ideas or plans to improve the polling. I am talking to all my friends (all former Labour voters) about Labour’s policies and what they are planning to do and nobody seem to care. This is really bad situation guys.
   • One Anonymous Bloke 8.1

     31 July 2017 at 6:36 am

     “all former Labour voters”

     “our party”

     I’ve run out of bingo cards.

     PS: Don’t despair, “Labour Voter” (lol), have a read of Swordfish’s analysis above. the CB poll always underestimates the Left vote, and the Greens are up more than Labour are down.

     If you get off your backside and knock on a few doors who knows what you could achieve? Unless you’re too lazy, or disingenuous, or something.

     Take your sincere concern™ about ‘your’ bad situation and do something positive with it, like the Greens 😈
     • Labour_Voter 8.1.1

       1 August 2017 at 1:38 am

       “If you get off your backside and knock on a few doors who knows what you could achieve? Unless you’re too lazy, or disingenuous, or something.” – Go and take your medicines.
       • One Anonymous Bloke 8.1.1.1

         1 August 2017 at 7:46 am

         Go and get some new astroturf.
9. patricia bremner 9

   31 July 2017 at 9:14 am

   I note that any time the Left get any traction, there is a poll.

   When the Right trend down they have an outlier. (Brings the average up you know.)

   Just as having one party drop 2/3 points each poll shows an suggested trend.

   I think some of this is deliberate misinformation.

   I note one in five asked won’t choose.

   So how accurate is this? Or is it a fox in our hen house?

   I donated in response!! Put my money where my mouth is!! Keep Left!!

• Comments are now closed

• Log in
• Donate
• Contribute post

• Articles RSS