Polity: The new TV polls
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7:13 pm, March 31st, 2014 - 24 comments
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The original of this post is here.
The TV1 and TV3 polls yesterday show roughly the same situation, which also mirrors Polity’s poll of polls.
National retains a smallish polling lead over the left bloc of around four points. But Winston Peters and New Zealand First are starting their surge toward the 5% threshold. If they cross that threshold it would complicate the post-election picture enormously.
One added element to account for, though, is the increasing evidence of a modest mismatch between poll-based estimates of popularity and actual popularity in elections. Gavin White from UMR showed a few weeks ago that there are some important patterns of apparent bias in the polls. Specifically, the final polls before our MMP elections have tended, on average, to poll:
- National: 2.4% too high
- Labour: 0.5% too low
- Greens: 1.5% too high
- NZ First: 1.1% too low.
If we apply those possible biases to the latest Poll of Polls, we get a projected election result that looks something like this:
- National: 45.4%
- Labour: 32.1%
- Greens: 10.3%
- NZ First: 5.6%
Still a small bloc-level advantage to National, but close. And post-election it would be all down to Winston.
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- Release: Government cuts unbelievably target child exploitation, violent extremism, ports and airpor...Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...2 weeks ago
- Three strikes has failed before and will fail againResurrecting the archaic three-strikes legislation is an unwelcome return to a failed American-style approach to justice. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Environmental protection vital, not ‘onerous’The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Ferris – Three Strikes targets those ‘too brown to be white’The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt cuts doctors and nurses in hiring freezeCuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...3 weeks ago
- Fast-track submissions period must be extendedThe Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Progress on climate will be undone by GovtNew Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...3 weeks ago
- Decisions on Wellington City Council’s District Plan
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...39 mins ago - Rape Awareness Week: Government committed to action on sexual violenceRape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...60 mins ago
- Smarter lunch programme feeds more, costs lessAssociate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...2 hours ago
- Report provides insights into marine recoveryNew research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...3 hours ago
- NZ to send political delegation to the PacificDeputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...4 hours ago
- Low gas production threatens energy securityThere has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...9 hours ago
- Defence industry talent, commitment recognisedDefence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...17 hours ago
- Speech to the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for IndustryWelcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...18 hours ago
- Speech to the Sixth Annual New Zealand Government Data SummitIt is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...19 hours ago
- Ceasefire agreement needed now: PetersNew Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...1 day ago
- Daily school attendance data now availableA new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...1 day ago
- Ambassador to United States appointedForeign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...1 day ago
- New permit proposed for recreational gold miningThe Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...1 day ago
- NZ and the UAE launch FTA negotiationsMinister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...1 day ago
- New Zealand Sign Language Week an opportunity for anyone to signNew Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...2 days ago
- Next stop NASA for New Zealand studentsSix tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...2 days ago
- $1.9 billion investment to keep NZ safe from crimeNew Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...2 days ago
- OECD reinforces need to control spendingThe OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...2 days ago
- Agreement delivers Local Water Done Well for AucklandThe Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...3 days ago
- Gaza and the Pacific on the agenda with GermanyForeign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...4 days ago
- Decision allows for housing growth in Western Bay of PlentyThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...5 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand China CouncilThank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...5 days ago
- Modern insurance law will protect Kiwi householdsThe Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...6 days ago
- Government recommits to equal payThe coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...6 days ago
- Transforming how our children learn to readStructured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...6 days ago
- NZ not backing down in Canada dairy disputeTrade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...6 days ago
- Stronger oversight for our most vulnerable childrenThe rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...6 days ago
- Streamlining Building Consent ChangesThe Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...6 days ago
- Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...7 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...7 days ago
- Accelerating airport security linesFrom today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...7 days ago
- Community hui to talk about kina barrensPeople with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...1 week ago
- Kiwi exporters win as NZ-EU FTA enters into forceKiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...1 week ago
- Mining resurgence a welcome signThere are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...1 week ago
- Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first readingThe return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...1 week ago
- Government to boost public EV charging networkEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...1 week ago
- Residential Property Managers Bill to not progressThe coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...1 week ago
- Independent review into disability support servicesThe Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...1 week ago
- Justice Minister updates UN on law & order planJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...1 week ago
- Ending emergency housing motels in RotoruaThe Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...1 week ago
- Bryce Edwards Analysis – Following the political money
Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards – Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz) Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. “Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to ...55 mins ago - Free school lunches: Year 7 students and above to shift to alternative model
A new interim delivery model will kick in next year to allow time for a full redesign of the scheme before any more money is dedicated. ...1 hour ago - Rafah ‘last place of safety’ in Gaza, UN aid boss warnsRNZ News As Israel presses ahead with strikes in Rafah and seizing the Rafah crossing from Egypt, aid agencies are sounding the alarm of a “catastrophic humanitarian situation”. Rafah was “significant” because it was the only part in Gaza that had not been terribly damaged by the conflict, United Nations ...1 hour ago
- Foreign Affairs minister to lead Pacific delegationThe Foreign Affairs minister is heading on a five-stop Pacific tour, which he says will strengthen New Zealand's engagement in the region. ...1 hour ago
- Why we’re fighting to save Te Huia, the Hamilton-Auckland train
With funding set to be scrapped for the Hamilton-Auckland commuter train, Te Huia enthusiast Georgie Dansey argues for it to be thrown a lifeline. It’s 5.45am and the chain of my crappy old bike falls off slugging up the one hill in Hamilton. I contemplate yeeting the bike into the ...2 hours ago - Greens Call On Government To Keep Same-day Election Enrolment And Voting
On Radio New Zealand this morning, the Justice Minister stated the Government was considering ending election day enrolments. ...2 hours ago - Many people are feeling ecological grief. How can we help those whose work puts them at risk?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Cooke, Honorary Fellow, School of the Environment, The University of Queensland We feel ecological grief when we lose places, species or ecosystems we value and love. These losses are a growing threat to mental health and wellbeing globally. We all see ...2 hours ago
- Revitalizing Toronto’s downtown core after COVID-19 greatly benefits the city and the regionSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shauna Brail, Associate Professor, Institute for Management & Innovation, University of Toronto A shift to hybrid and remote work continues to affect worker presence in Toronto’s downtown. (Shutterstock) Downtown Toronto, the core of Canada’s largest city, continues to reel from the lingering ...2 hours ago
- Government quiet on costs, building plan for Waikato prison expansionThe extra beds would take longer than the four-years covered in this week's budget announcement to deliver, the Corrections Minister told RNZ. ...3 hours ago
- Chief Electoral Officer Needs To Fall On His SwordResponding to an Auditor-General's report slamming failures in the administration of the 2023 General Election, Taxpayers’ Union Policy and Public Affairs Manager, James Ross, said: ...3 hours ago
- How many productivity apps do I have to use to become more productive?Productivity apps now make up a big chunk of the software market. But do they work? And why do they all have AI integrations? Despite being firmly on the record as a physical planner fan, I sometimes dream of something better than my pretty diary and its scrawled, ugly, interior ...3 hours ago
- Government considers removing election day voter enrolmentJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith says very few countries allow it, and New Zealand should consider changing the rules. ...4 hours ago
- Beehive Need To Lead By ExampleThe Taxpayers’ Union says the Beehive need to lead by example, following reports of more than $50,000 spent upgrading video conferencing equipment and furniture in the Prime Minister’s office. Taxpayers’ Union Campaign Manager, Connor Molloy, ...4 hours ago
- The Spinoff Power List: 50 New Zealanders you need to knowAn objective list of the 50 most powerful people in New Zealand, as judged by the Spinoff Editorial Board. It’s power list season, baby, and we want in on the action. Sure, there’s the rich list and the powerful “c-suite” list and the young people with power (hmmm) but here, ...5 hours ago
- First Nations imprisonment is already at a record high. Unless government policy changes, it will on...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thalia Anthony, Professor of Law, University of Technology Sydney Shutterstock This article contains information on deaths in custody and the names of deceased people, and describes ongoing colonial violence towards Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. First Nations people in Australia ...5 hours ago
- Martha isn’t Baby Reindeer’s biggest villain. So why is she painted as such?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alex Simpson, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Macquarie University Netflix Baby Reindeer’s phenomenal success has much to do with its writer and lead, Richard Gadd, who plays Donny in a tender semi-autobiographical account of sexual abuse, harassment and stalking. Gadd’s story has ...5 hours ago
- Yes, adults can develop food allergies. Here are 4 types you need to know aboutSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Collins, Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Newcastle KarolinaGrabowska/Pexels If you didn’t have food allergies as a child, is it possible to develop them as an adult? The short answer is yes. But the reasons why are much ...5 hours ago
- An outsider on the inside: how Ans Westra created New Zealand’s ‘national photo album’Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Moon, Professor of History, Auckland University of Technology Ans Westra, self-portrait, c. 1963. National Library ref AWM-0705-F They try but invariably fail – those writers who believe they are capable of encapsulating in prose or verse the essence of ...6 hours ago
- How the lessons from Covid-19 could help us prepare for bird fluStewart Sowman-Lund looks at the growing concern around the world in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. What’s all this? When Covid-19 arrived on our shores in early 2020, some argued we were too slow, or crucially, ill-prepared for a pandemic. So ...7 hours ago
- As climate change amplifies urban flooding, here’s how communities can become ‘sponge cities’Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Franco Montalto, Professor of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering and Director, Sustainable Water Resource Engineering Laboratory, Drexel University Water runs into a storm drain in a Los Angeles alley on Aug. 19, 2023, during Tropical Storm Hilary. Citizen of the Planet/Universal Images ...7 hours ago
- Genesis Energy to fire up coal imports, citing increased demand, dwindling gas supplyGenesis Energy is to resume importing coal, as reduced gas supplies and increased demand add to the problems of keeping the lights on. ...7 hours ago
- The Boy in the Water: ‘Someone was struggling at a fence’
The inquest into the death of Gore toddler Lachlan Jones has turned up a new witness who says he saw two teenagers and a small child in a high vis vest in the area where the boy’s body was found the day he died. Lachie’s body was discovered face up ...7 hours ago - Te Pāti Māori comments: 'That kind of language isn't helpful'Political parties have roundly criticised Te Pāti Māori for using words like 'extermination' and 'white supremacy' in the House. ...8 hours ago
- Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey sought advice on ‘social impact bonds’ to fund servicesMinisters have sought advice on 'social impact bonds', which offer a potential return on private investment in public services. ...8 hours ago
- Managed retreat: How do we get out of the way of climate change?"Ad hoc" house buyouts after major disasters cannot continue, the Climate Change Minister says. ...8 hours ago
- Rules for property managers are scrapped. But what’s the worst that could happen?Stories from the tenancy trenches, featuring spider infestations, cupboard rats and same-sex discrimination. Lucy’s brother was living in a damp 1930s building in Mt Eden where “he had to tie the cupboard doors closed so the rats didn’t get in”. Although he shared custody of his six-year-old son, his property ...8 hours ago
- Explainer: What’s the deal with Auckland’s new water deal?Simeon Brown, Chris Luxon, and Wayne Brown climbed into a hole and announced a plan to solve Auckland’s water woes. This is how it’ll work. New Zealand’s pipes are munted. They’re cracked and leaking, and struggling to handle all the extra poos excreted by our rising population. It’s a big, ...9 hours ago
- Where to next for the Aukus ruckus?Opinion: Nicholas Khoo looks at two key points in the high-stakes foreign policy pact debate – and asks if NZ can engage with as little drama as possible. The post Where to next for the Aukus ruckus? appeared first on Newsroom. ...9 hours ago
- Newsroom daily quiz, Wednesday 8 MayLoading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A,DIV,A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Wednesday 8 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...9 hours ago
- ‘Think fast and act slowly’ is failing big projectsOpinion: ‘Reference-class forecasting’ is at the heart of improving pricing a project and identifying the expected timeframe but it doesn’t appear to be in use here The post ‘Think fast and act slowly’ is failing big projects appeared first on Newsroom. ...9 hours ago
- A controversial driving exam – put to the testWhat do a sombrero in Argentina and cognitive driving tests have in common? Don’t worry, we’re not setting up a bad joke. Hinengaro Clinic dementia clinician Gregory Winkelman has the answer on today’s episode of The Detail. “We ask a patient’s spouse or son or daughter: If you went to ...9 hours ago
- A long road back to a very long jumpWellington long jumper Phoebe Edwards is back and she’s having fun again. Until this year, Edwards, a top athlete in her teens, had never competed as a senior athlete in New Zealand. In March, the 26-year-old won a national long jump title in a lifetime best of 6.28m after ...9 hours ago
- Daily crossword, Wednesday 8 MayThe post Daily crossword, Wednesday 8 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...9 hours ago
- Persistent Green Party scandals delay caucus resetAfter replacing a fifth of their caucus in just four months, the Greens’ opportunity to reset, reshuffle and refocus on the Government is quickly slipping away The post Persistent Green Party scandals delay caucus reset appeared first on Newsroom. ...9 hours ago
- Coutts’ call prompts urgent board meeting over SailGPDespite Sir Russell Coutts vowing SailGP wouldn’t return to Whakaraupō/Lyttelton Harbour, negotiations over 2025 are ongoing The post Coutts’ call prompts urgent board meeting over SailGP appeared first on Newsroom. ...9 hours ago
- Meet the man behind the Government’s education policyThe parallels between the Government’s education policy and those put forward by researcher Michael Johnston, is raising questions The post Meet the man behind the Government’s education policy appeared first on Newsroom. ...9 hours ago
- ‘We didn’t behave very well in NZ’, says Wakefield heirI knew Taika Waititi quite well when he was a kid. His mother lived in a tall narrow house in Aro St, and my youngest sister had a similar house two doors along. They were both single mums, they each had a son aged seven. Taika and my nephew Stepan ...9 hours ago
- Govt risks another Havelock North by undoing water protectionsOpinion: “As time passes, knowledge of the circumstances of the August 2016 outbreak will fade and its immediate impact will be lost.” This statement is from the 2017 report of the Official Inquiry into the Havelock North campylobacteriosis outbreak. The then National-led government established the inquiry after the outbreak left ...9 hours ago
- From Gallipoli to Gaza: remembering the Anzacs not as a ‘coming of age’ tale but as a lesson for...ANALYSIS: By Olli Hellmann, University of Waikato When New Zealanders commemorate Anzac Day today on April 25, it’s not only to honour the soldiers who lost their lives in World War I and subsequent conflicts, but also to mark a defining event for national identity. The battle of Gallipoli against ...11 hours ago
- NZ local council calls for immediate ceasefire in Gaza as strikes hitBy Robin Martin, RNZ News reporter A New Zealand local authority, Whanganui District Council, has passed a motion calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, condemnation of all acts of violence and terror against civilians on both sides of the conflict and the immediate return of hostages. It comes as ...12 hours ago
- End this ‘cruel, barbaric use of force’ on Gaza – WILPF plea to NZAsia Pacific Report The Aotearoa chapter of the Women’s International league for Peace and Freedom (WILPF) has appealed to the New Zealand government to call out Israel over the “cruel and barbaric use of force” in Gaza and demand a permanent ceasefire. The league’s open letter was sent to Prime ...12 hours ago
- Albanese government to invest $566 million for ‘generational’ mapping to promote resource explor...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Albanese government will invest $566 million over a decade on data, maps and other tools to promote exploration and development in Australia’s resources industry. The project will fund “the first comprehensive map of what’s ...13 hours ago
- Prison spending: Waikeria to have capacity for nearly 2000 bedsThe government has clarified just how many beds the Waikato prison will get after a series of maths gaffes - 455, 600, 810 or 1865? ...15 hours ago
- ‘Repair colonial violence’ and support Gaza ceasefire, say Otago academicsAsia Pacific Report Following an open letter by Auckland University academics speaking out in support of their students’ right to protest against the genocidal Israeli war on Gaza, a group of academics at Otago University have today also called on New Zealand academic institutions to “repair colonial violence” and end ...16 hours ago
- Expelling students for bad behaviour seems like the obvious solution, but is it really a good idea?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Linda J. Graham, Professor and Director of the Centre for Inclusive Education, Queensland University of Technology Ryan Tauss/ Unsplash, CC BY Two male students have been expelled from a Melbourne private school for their involvement in a list ranking female students. ...17 hours ago
- Green MP Julie Anne Genter responds after behaviour in the House, florist's accusations"I can do better," she says, acknowledging the need to work on her de-escalation strategy. ...17 hours ago
- If the RBA’s right, interest rates may not fall for another year. Here’s why – and what it mea...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University The Reserve Bank is now assuming Australians will see no interest rate cuts this year – and quite possibly none before the next federal election, due next May. That’s ...18 hours ago
- ‘Eye watering’ spending, growing debt make up surprisingly generous Victorian state budgetSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Hayward, Emeritus Professor of Public Policy, RMIT University The Victorian budget offered more of the same on Tuesday, with the only change being how the budget papers were packaged. The usual shrink wrap was gone, hinting at savings in the pages ...18 hours ago
- Budgeting service cuts: 'It's like watching a train derail'With some services facing closure after missing out on the latest government funding, there are for some of NZ's most vulnerable. ...18 hours ago
- Coalition demands amendments to government’s deportation bill, as crucial High Court judgement set...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Coalition is demanding extensive amendments to the government’s legislation targeting non-citizens who refuse to co-operate with their removal. In a dissenting report to the senate inquiry into the legislation, the Coalition says it ...18 hours ago
- MP's comments 'bang on' despite negative response from other parties – Te Pāti...Te Pāti Māori is standing by comments made by MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi which other parties have called inflammatory and offensive. ...21 hours ago
- A story of trauma, hope and regaining control, Nayika: A Dancing Girl is soul-stirring dance theatreSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanita Yadav, Senior Research Fellow, Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney University Brett Boardman/Belvoir The complex and grappling issue of violence against women takes centre stage in the soul-stirring solo dance drama Nayika: A Dancing Girl. During a dinner conversation ...21 hours ago
- 'Pretty dire' situation for patients as junior doctors strike over pay cutsDisruption to patient care from a nationwide junior doctors strike is bordering on unsafe, a senior doctor claims, despite what health officials say. ...21 hours ago
- How does the drug abemaciclib treat breast cancer?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Diepstraten, Senior Research Officer, Blood Cells and Blood Cancer Division, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute Ground Picture/Shutterstock The anti-cancer drug abemaciclib (also known as Vernezio) has this month been added to the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) to treat certain ...22 hours ago
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What will the internet party do to the polls ? ? ?
Either nothing
Or
split and confuse the left leaning voting bloc. It’ll have no impact on the right bloc, except perhaps to consolidate its small lead.
The internet party will pull in many younger non-voters from last time and first time voters. This will probably make little difference to Labour but could affect the young green vote. More young people will become aware of the issues through the IP. Traditional MSM is irrelevant to most young people even if the Right think they have it all sewn up. Ask a young person who John Armstrong, Tracey Watkins or Fran O’Sullivan are?
Or (your blind spot is showing),
Motivate some of the 800,000 non voters to vote.
I’m guessing if the ‘missing 800,000’ couldn’t be bothered showing up in 2008 or 2011, with asset sales, National Standards and all the rest of National’s unpleasant agenda to vote against, the Internet Party is not going to get them very excited.
I would have to agree with you Lurgee.
Time will tell 🙂
“I’m guessing if the ‘missing 800,000′ couldn’t be bothered”
‘Couldn’t be bothered’ is not necessarily the case. It’s how many who might be bothered to vote, but don’t.
Not being excited by politics, not seeing an effect on their everyday lives, expecting a foregone conclusion, etc, etc, etc… there are many reasons why people don’t vote. I reckon Dotcom has probably got a better chance of picking up some votes from the 800,000 – even if just because people are a bit curious – than the mainstream parties have (as yet).
If Labour/Greens can’t present something to these voters who might be bothered (just at the moment cant see quite why they should be) they may well find themselves giving up the election.
Xox
Given that most folk don’t realize that they are being conned, duped, and Rogered, there is every chance for a JoKey to prevail come September. The game is rigged by You know who.
Philj
You need to cut down on the weed it’s made you extremely paranoid.
Xox
Never touched the stuff. I wonder what your children think of your caustic attitudes. Especially about the AGW and the environment? I do fear for their future world. Wish I could ignore it like you , ,Naki man.
IMO Winston hates Key and will go with Labour. He will not forget how Key treated him as a pariah in 2008.
His price, which he will trumpet, will be (among other things) keeping the Greens out of the cabinet.
If he wants Greens out of Cabinet he wont be in Government himself. The numbers dont show he can govern with labour alone.
Anyway Key has now announced himself as an environmentalist in claiming victory in the Japanese whaling case. That makes him a hippie and a loonie, or just a liar again.
Naki Man and others don’t mind the loathing but him being a greenie!!!!
Will key now wear a t-shirt to parliament
“I saved the whales”
Tracey-the Greens (and Mana) will support Lab/NZF on confidence and supply. They have nowhere else to go. That means a Lab/NZF government becomes a reality.
By the way I’m usually a Green voter.
Winston will go with whoever offers him what he wants
Peters has few fond memories of his last time in government with Labour so either way he gets to sate his sense of utu. I think the simple arithmetic of the electoral result will dictate his decision – if National’s share of the vote is massively higher than Labour’s he will ‘Heed the will of the New Zealand people and act to prevent the dictatorship of minorities, fringe groups and special interest parties’ – all with a perfectly straight face, of course.
And installing a National government would, of course, almost certainly mean the Greens were excluded.
I am relaxed having talked to many non voters from the last election. I would be surprised if as a base figure 350,000 will show up this election. The Internet Party more so than any other political party will account for 150,000 to show up to vote. Labour will target the South Auckland vote now Mat McCarten is at the helm. NZF is gaining traction now people see a National alliance is out of the question.
Nothing is ever out of the question where Winston is concerned. He is very good at putting aside his ‘personal distaste and conflicting desires’ when high office and the accompanying baubles are concerned.
The one thing that’s missing from all this smokescreen talk on polls is the elephant in the room…Cunliffe’s leadership or lack of it. Forget all this nonsense of dabbling around the edges of the margins and margins of error, the Party has gone backwards in every poll since DC was elected as leader. Whereas David Shearer was showing a percentage point growth poll on poll for most of his tenure, Cunliffe has gone backwards at a huge rate of knots. Time has basically run out and all this margin stuff is only hiding the fact that as leader he has about as much chance of leading Labour to victory as the New Lynn LEC has of telling their Emperor that he’s not wearing any clothes. It’s too late to make a change before the election now but when Labour settles in for 3 more years in opposition will the membership start that term by getting rid of this nice but ineffective leader. More and more I’m hearing people say that David Shearer should never have been placed in the position where he felt a need to step down. He’s no longer the fumbler that we saw in the beginning and it feels like his time to lead as returned.
I admit Cunliffe is a in sticky situation. It isn’t really his fault any more than stagnant polls were Shearer’s fault. The’r simply up against something almost incomprehensibly difficult to combat – the John Key effect.
People genuinely respond to him. Hell, even I can’t escape the feeling that I wouldn’t mind going out for a pint with him, and (this is the clever bit) I can’t help but feel that he would enjoy it as well. Of course he wouldn’t – but the perception is there that he would. That’s (one reason) why people respond to him.
Cunliffe, and Goff and Shearer before him, are simply up against something they don’t seem equipped to fight. Goff’s experience and blokeish familiarity were not enough. Shearer’s Astonishing Back Story got him nowhere. Cunliffes (dubious) leftwing credentials, intelligence and passion don’t seem to be having any impact either. And now it is election year, so there needs to be something happening.
Truth is Shearer was actively undermined by the far left blogosphere – The Standard, Chris Trotter, Brian Edwards, Bomber Bradbury. A year ago Labour was on its way to victory, now its in damage control. Shearer is as likeable and as clever as John Key. All he needed was a party to back him. The Labour activists got this one wrong. Too bad that ego will be delivering another three years for National.
ahh John Key – girls want to be with him, guys want to be like him
You must admit, it would b quite cool to be able to say start anecdotes, “John and I were …”
Totally! like how cool would it be to have known hitler and say “Adolf and I were…”