UK General Election discussion post

Written By: - Date published: 6:14 am, June 9th, 2017 - 173 comments
Categories: democratic participation, Politics, uk politics - Tags: , ,

Timeline:

Election day Thursday 8 June British Time/Friday 9 June NZT.

Polling stations open from Thurs 7am to 10pm BT/Thurs 6pm – Fri 9am NZT.

First exit poll at 10pm BT/Fri 9am NZT.

First seat to declare usually Sunderland before midnight BT/Fri 11am NZT.

If it’s a straight result for one side expect that by 3am or 4am BT/Fri 2pm or 3pm NZT.

A close result might mean no result that day BT.

How the UK election works:

Wikipedia on the 2017 election

Usually the political party that wins the most seats in the House of Commons at a general election forms the new government and its leader becomes Prime Minister.

If no party wins a majority of the seats, a situation which is known as a ‘hung Parliament’, then the largest party may form a minority government or there may be a coalition government of two or more parties. The Prime Minister appoints ministers who work in the government departments, the most senior of these sit in Cabinet.

Hung Parliament.

The previous government might remain in position whilst there is a period of negotiation to build a coalition, or they might decide to try and govern with a minority of Members of Parliament.

If the incumbent government is unable to command a majority and decides to resign, the leader of the largest opposition party may be invited to form a government and may do so either as a minority or in coalition with another party or parties.

In order to form a Government, a party must be able to command a majority in the House of Commons on votes of confidence and supply. This majority can include support from other political parties, whether or not there is a formal coalition arrangement.

In a situation of no overall control the Government in power before the General Election gets the first chance at creating a government. If they cannot do so, the Prime Minister will resign.

The Prime Minister only has to resign if it is clear that they cannot command a majority of the House of Commons on votes of confidence or supply. This would be the case if the incumbent government fails to make a deal with one or more of the other parties, or if they lose a confidence motion in the House of Commons. The first parliamentary test would be the vote on any amendment to the Queen’s Speech.

Update,

Update, BBC live tracking of seats won by party, and explanation of what happens with a hung parliament.

Reuters infographics of seat results, exit polls, and the historic election results for comparison.

 

 

173 comments on “UK General Election discussion post ”

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  1. millsy 1
    9 June 2017 at 9:02 am

    Doesn’t look like Labour will win tonight, but the true winner will be the currency traders who have betted on the pound to surge when the results come in. Blairites will be back in charge of the party by the end of the year. The holy Trinity of austerity, privatisation and war intact.

  2. Carolyn_nth 2
    9 June 2017 at 9:04 am

    On Twitter just now. The Independent is saying exit polls indicate hung parliament. But…. Brexit exit polls were inaccurate.

    • dukeofurl 2.1
      9 June 2017 at 9:31 am

      “exit polls” solve the hardest problem of opinion polls, finding people who will actually vote on the day.
      And of course they are sampling each electorate for a winner, not this nationwide horse race which tells you nothing of the fine detail.

      Your comment about the Brexit poll being inaccurate is explained by this – it wasnt a poll of voters leaving the polling station
      Many supposed problems with “exit polls” have involved on-the-day polls wrongly described as exit polls, including at the 1987 general election and the 2016 EU referendum.
      https://www.ft.com/content/0e38ae9e-4a16-11e7-a3f4-c742b9791d43?mhq5j=e1

      I suppose we have to be careful about ‘on the day opinion polls ( ie via telephone) being called exit polls for this result as well.

      • weka 2.1.1
        9 June 2017 at 10:18 am

        I’m perplexed at how much the national % was reported on without context, and how little explanation there has been of how government can be formed under different scenarios. Bizarre.

    • Draco T Bastard 2.2
      9 June 2017 at 10:03 am

      UK: Exit poll points to Tory falling short of majority

      Polls have closed in the UK and an exit poll by British broadcasters points to the Conservative Party, being the largest in the country.

      A joint poll by BBC, SKY, and ITV news said the ruling party of Prime Minister Theresa May had won 314 seats, with Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party winning 266 seats which means May’s party will fall short of a majority in the parliament.
      British vote for lower house MPs in general election

      In Scotland, the nationalist Scottish National Party (SNP) continued to dominate, according to the poll, and would bag 34 seats.

      • dukeofurl 2.2.1
        9 June 2017 at 10:30 am

        Even the exit polls of voters leaving have been out by up to 15 seats before ( last time it was by 14 seats too low for Tories and a bit high for everyone else)
        Its only because there are 650 seats does 15 seem ‘high’
        Even giving the Tories another 15 just puts them back where they started.

  3. millsy 3
    9 June 2017 at 9:08 am

    First exit poll out. Hung Parliament apparently:

    Conservatives: 314

    Labour: 266

    SNP: 34

    Lib Dems: 14

    Plaid Cymru: 3

    Greens: 1

    Ukip: 0

    Others: 138

    Last Updated: 09:04
    AdvertisementHide
    10m ago

    • dukeofurl 3.1
      9 June 2017 at 9:24 am

      Thats a hiding for SNP!
      Their bubble has burst: No independence, No remain. I suppose they have to rely on their declining results for actually governing Scotland

      • weka 3.1.1
        9 June 2017 at 10:20 am

        Bill has been predicting the rise of Corbyn as the start of the decline of the SNP. Will be interesting to see what’s gone on there (and the exit poll might not be reflective).

        • Bill 3.1.1.1
          9 June 2017 at 10:33 am

          Kezia Dugdale was encouraging Labour supporters to vote Tory to keep the SNP out in seats Labour couldn’t win.

          If that 34 seat prediction is correct, and it also looks as though Labour supporters listened to Dugdale and let their unionism determine their vote…

          • dukeofurl 3.1.1.1.1
            9 June 2017 at 11:26 am

            More likely Liberal voters , who used to be a strong third party in Scotland will have swung behind the Conservatives.
            Would be interesting to see the results in seats the Tories gain from SNP, if any.

            That would be a bit of a shock if the Tories stay in power due to seats they gain from SNP ? We shall see

            • Bill 3.1.1.1.1.1
              9 June 2017 at 1:28 pm

              T’would be very dark irony if the Labour and Tory unionist’s call to block out the SNP, on the claim that the SNP was viewing the UK election as an independence vote, allowed the Tories to cling on in Westminster.

              edit – the forecast of the SNP only getting 34 seats is too low. They’ll get forty something.

              • dukeofurl …
                9 June 2017 at 1:36 pm

                No ones saying ‘block them out’ . Just if SNP drop by 20 seats, some one else gains those numbers

                SNP is biggest loser this election with Tories a close second. Thats the contradiction of being a single issue party when ‘their issue’ goes out of fashion.
                PQ in Quebec is a history they should study closely

              • gsays …
                9 June 2017 at 6:49 pm

                Hi Bill, well done in your observations leading up to election.
                I have enjoyed and have come to trust your commentary.

    • Chris 3.2
      9 June 2017 at 11:09 am

      The party responsible for the issue that forced the snap election gets zero seats.

  4. ianmac 4
    9 June 2017 at 9:09 am

    9 to Noon also suggesting a hung parliament according to exit polls.

  5. millsy 5
    9 June 2017 at 9:14 am

    Labour won 232 seats in 2015.

  6. Glenn 6
    9 June 2017 at 9:19 am

    http://www.independent.co.uk/News/uk/politics/exit-poll-result-hung-parliament-latest-live-a7780151.html

    “Theresa May has suffered a blow after the official exit poll indicated Britain is heading for a hung parliament.

    The survey of some 20,000 people leaving polling stations suggested Ms May’s party has taken just 314 seats in total, 12 short of a majority and 17 fewer than they currently have.

    The unexpected result would see Labour increase its number of seats by 34 to 266, while the Liberal Democrats would take 14. Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP appear to have suffered heavy losses according to the survey, shedding 22 seats.

    If borne out, the figures would throw a huge question mark over Ms May’s future as Prime Minister and throw Britain’s Brexit negotiating strategy into chaos.”

  7. Kevin 7
    9 June 2017 at 9:19 am

    Despite the last minute polls predicting a 12pt lead to the Tories.

    A lot of reports of voters being turned away despite having their voting card but their names not being on the list. Shades of the Scottish referendum.

    • Sanctuary 7.1
      9 June 2017 at 9:36 am

      The “last minute polls” giving the Tories a 12pt lead were pure propaganda – attempts to influence voters via the observed phenomena of people wanting to be “on the winning side”.

    • dukeofurl 7.2
      9 June 2017 at 9:42 am

      That doesnt make sense. The ‘voting cards’ would be produced from the lists.

      I guess the undertone of what you are saying is the result is fixed in some way that you dont like

      You are reading the ’12pt lead’ numbers. Thats not the average of polls, which showed its a lot closer.
      As well its not MMP so the a nationwide number means nothing

      The Yougov panel results from virtually every electorate gave closer results to the exit poll
      Con 302,
      Lab 269
      ,SNP 44,
      Lib 12

      • Kevin 7.2.1
        9 June 2017 at 10:09 am

        I am not ‘suggesting’ anything.

        It’s a shit state of affairs in the 21st century when a polling station does not have an updated list of who can and cannot vote.

        Kind of fundamental to the voting process don’t you think?

        • dukeofurl 7.2.1.1
          9 June 2017 at 10:19 am

          Are you getting your information from twitter ?

          Its not saying there cant be issues but when you have 30 million people voting, is it a big issue if 5 or 20 have problems ?

          • Wainwright 7.2.1.1.1
            9 June 2017 at 10:44 pm

            it is if the local MP’s majority is 20 or 30, as happened in one electorate (Newcastle iirc) where people were turned away because the polling booth didn’t have the most uptodate list of registered voters. Incompetence not malice, clearly, but enough to make a difference if they hadn’t been allowed to vote.

  8. weka 8
    9 June 2017 at 9:32 am

    Fucking Guardian, live updates,

    Exit poll suggests Tories neck and neck with ‘coalition of chaos’

    Anyone got a decent update of overall seats by party? Best I can find so far is top of google search,

    https://www.google.co.nz/search?q=uk+election&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b&gfe_rd=cr&ei=F8E5WYyvG8Pr8AefiaTQBQ

    • Carolyn_nth 8.1
      9 June 2017 at 9:37 am

      I don’t think there’s anything to report but exit polls so far:

      http://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-2017-40171454

    • Adrian Thornton 8.2
      9 June 2017 at 9:46 am

      Yes the fucking Guardian is right, imagine what position Corbyn could have been in now if the ‘left’ liberal media had of actually even just given him neutral coverage over the past 18 month, instead of being actively negative.

      • Draco T Bastard 8.2.1
        9 June 2017 at 10:05 am

        +1

      • dukeofurl 8.2.2
        9 June 2017 at 10:14 am

        So the media is supposed to serve the wishes of a part of the labour party?

        • weka 8.2.2.1
          9 June 2017 at 10:22 am

          I think it’s a happy coincidence that ‘neutral coverage’ is also serving the Labour Party. Or maybe its just that neutral coverage would serve democracy and that would serve Corbyn’s Labour. The media should do their job way better than they have been.

          • dukeofurl 8.2.2.1.1
            9 June 2017 at 10:39 am

            Political commentary in the Guardian has been harsh on Corbyn, but it is commentary not fact.
            Its only a tiny paper with 30K taking daily delivery. It has a wider online presence though.
            the commentators have aged along with the readership, its the lefts version of the Torygraph- very traditional now.
            Im not a Corbyn fan , but the ‘Blairites’ had their time in government for 14 years or so ( and with large majorities!)
            Maybe a more left wing platform and trying for a small majority with support from the SNP could work for UK labour ?

            • red-blooded 8.2.2.1.1.1
              9 June 2017 at 2:45 pm

              Besides, commentary is never “neutral”. That’s part of what defines it as commentary.

    • dukeofurl 8.3
      9 June 2017 at 9:48 am

      UK election results are weird. They dont have an central Election Commission keeping tabs on the numbers – thats left to the BBC, and other news groups!!!

    • dukeofurl 8.4
      9 June 2017 at 9:58 am

      Are you sure you havent seen the Daily Mail headline- it does say that while the Guardian just blandly says Tories ‘largest party’

    • Anne 8.5
      9 June 2017 at 10:01 am

      Exit poll suggests Tories neck and neck with ‘coalition of chaos’.

      I think the Guardian was being tongue in cheek there weka. That is what the Tories were calling the opposition parties so, if anything, they were having a little dig at the Tories.

      RNZ have rolling coverage of the results:

      http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/world/332629/live-uk-election-voting-closes-first-exit-polls-released

      • weka 8.5.1
        9 June 2017 at 10:24 am

        Ah well, if they don’t want to look like dicks, they need to be more careful and they probably shouldn’t have run so much anti-Corbyn shite in the run up. You can’t make a joke like that when you’ve been saying the same thing seriously for months.

  9. Glenn 9
    9 June 2017 at 9:50 am

    “Ahead of the election both Labour and the SNP ruled out forming a formal coalition.

    This means it is likely the parties will have to negotiate issue by issue – but they are certain to put on a united front to try and evict Mrs May from No 10.

    The exit poll, completed by elections expert John Curtice, has a margin of error of about 20 seats – enough for Mrs May to sneak over the line.

    But the results will throw into chaos plans for Brexit and could even force another early election if neither side can form a stable government.

    The loss of seats will raise immediate questions about Mrs May’s future as Conservative leader even if she is able to cobble together the votes in Parliament to stagger on

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4586324/If-really-lost-seats-Corbyn-enter-No-10.html#ixzz4jRxou2UE
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

    • dukeofurl 9.1
      9 June 2017 at 10:03 am

      results will throw into chaos plans for Brexit

      hardly , you havent been paying attention
      “Members of the House of Commons voted by 498 to 114 to advance the bill that would give Prime Minister Theresa May the authority to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty

      nearly 500 Mps voted for the Brexit to proceed. Thats huge !

  10. weka 10
    9 June 2017 at 10:00 am

    Not matter what happens, there is this 😆

    “Scathing……….. 71 seconds you really do not want to miss. Many of you have waited your whole life for this.”

    https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/872516009629974535

    • Carolyn_nth 10.1
      9 June 2017 at 10:09 am

      Thanks. I haven’t waited my whole old life for this – just since I was living in the UK in 1979 when Thatcher got elected. It’s (so far) been all down hill for society since then.

      • YNWA 10.1.1
        9 June 2017 at 3:34 pm

        Me too, I was 16 in 1979, Thatcher’s Britain was a bleak political awakening, this election is a massive step towards a more compassionate politics, well played Jeremy Corbyn

  11. Ovid 11
    9 June 2017 at 10:04 am

    Live stream of BBC coverage

  12. saveNZ 12
    9 June 2017 at 10:14 am

    Are election’s free and fair anymore with the advent of election management agency’s like Strategic Communication Laboratories and offshoots like Cambridge Analytica which Trump and Brexit used to influence voters on a individual level?

    They provide marketing based on psychological modeling. One of its core focuses: Influencing elections.

    Is it acceptable to allow far right organisations run by billionaires influencing election results around the world?

    https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/big-data-cambridge-analytica-brexit-trump

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/26/robert-mercer-breitbart-war-on-media-steve-bannon-donald-trump-nigel-farage

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/04/nigel-oakes-cambridge-analytica-what-role-brexit-trump

    • dukeofurl 12.1
      9 June 2017 at 11:09 am

      They may claim that the influenced people to justify the large fees they charge, but did they really do anything that isnt done allready ?

      • saveNZ 12.1.1
        9 June 2017 at 12:30 pm

        @dukeofurl Yes it sounds like they are. And the debate both local and global should be, should this type of influencing allowed in elections?

        AKA to use psychological individual manipulation of people’s data when they are not aware it is happening and what it is being used for, it is not declared in the elections properly and in a grey area of privacy on the Internet using non tax paying monopolies like Facebook with far right libertarians like Peter Thiel on the board able to use their influence and who are actually anti democracy and anti government… but able to help ‘the right government or ideology’ into power.

        Donald Trump, Peter Thiel and the death of democracy

        https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jul/21/peter-thiel-republican-convention-speech

        • dukeofurl 12.1.1.1
          9 June 2017 at 1:45 pm

          I very much doubt they have some secret sauce that influences people like that.

          hasnt worked for the Tories !! Now thats evidence

  14. Ad 14
    9 June 2017 at 10:34 am

    Even if he doesn’t form a government, it’s a big trendung result for Corbyn.

    Maybe Anthony Robins was right yesterday after all; this is the Parliament to skip.

  15. The Fairy Godmother 15
    9 June 2017 at 10:54 am

    Looks like collapsed ukip vote means conservatives are going to take some seats off Labour.

  16. dukeofurl 16
    9 June 2017 at 10:55 am

    Interesting that May has been running ‘Clinton type campaign’ in the places shes visits.

    Rather than shoring up places where they were marginal she was targeting labour seats where they hoped to pick up some wins
    Theresa May spent more than half of the election campaign in Labour-held seats, demonstrating how confident she is of making gains from Jeremy Corbyn’s party, a Guardian analysis has shown.
    Of the prime minister’s 70 campaign stops, 57% were in Labour seats such as Halifax in Yorkshire, Ealing Central and Acton in London, and Bridgend in Wales,
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/08/theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-election-campaign-stops-analysis

    The trouble with these sort of pre- arranged scripted campaign stops, no one is listening locally anymore. And they are chosen months before election day.

  17. Ad 17
    9 June 2017 at 11:05 am

    Time for a comment from Wayne.
    Just for sport.

    • Robert Guyton 17.1
      9 June 2017 at 11:10 am

      It’s James who does sport. Wayne might have thoughts to share on how the Tories Nats here in NZ are reacting to the failure of the team they share, Cosby/Textor, to secure a sound win for the British Conservatives, with whom our National Party share a close strategic and ideological bond.

      • ianmac 17.1.1
        9 June 2017 at 2:48 pm

        Robert. Just read your plug for tree planting in the Marlborough Express. Good stuff thanks.

  19. Draco T Bastard 19
    9 June 2017 at 11:27 am

    It seems that some people are now panicking:

    LEE HARDMAN, CURRENCY ANALYST AT MUFG

    “The market will be praying that this exit poll has got it wrong. Currency volatility is the best proxy for market fears. If the Conservative ship is sinking then the market will be looking for a life boat.”

    That oh so human market is praying to the oh so human god.

    • greywarshark 19.1
      9 June 2017 at 12:19 pm

      But I thought that business and finance was run on a very rational basis, with cool heads making decisions, taking all matters into account, because they are of great import and future efficacy.

      • Draco T Bastard 19.1.1
        9 June 2017 at 12:58 pm

        Well, I suppose that depends upon if you consider greed to be rational as it destroys societies.

  20. weka 20
    9 June 2017 at 11:34 am

    2015 seat results

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_breakdown_of_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015

    Cons 330
    Lab 232
    SNP 56
    Libdems 8
    DUP 8
    Sinn Fein 4
    Plaid Cymru 3
    SDLP 3
    Ulster UP 2
    UKIP 1
    Green 1

    Speaker 1
    Independent 1

    = 650
    325 needed for majority.

    As far as I can tell, this is how they fall in terms of L/R

    Lab
    SNP
    Greens
    Plaid Cymru

    LibDem

    Cons
    UKIP

    Northern Ireland
    Sinn Fein – has said they won’t take their seats parliament
    SDLP – social democratic

    DUP – unionist
    Ulster UP – unionist

    I’m not clear on what would happen with the NI seats re hung parliament because of Brexit.

  21. Sanctuary 21
    9 June 2017 at 11:49 am

    This is a crushing defeat for those bedfellows of the establishment – the Blairites and the liberal, middle class radical centre. I saw a rather pathetic disbelieving tweet from a Blairite Labour MP on the Guardian saying there is no way Labour would win 34 seats. Just like the soft left here, they’ve turned out to be nothing but quitters, defeatists, apologists and downright Quislings for the right.

    Socialism is back in town, baby.

    • weka 21.1
      9 June 2017 at 12:20 pm

      RNZ had Josie Pagani waffling on on the radio this morning.

    • Ad 21.2
      9 June 2017 at 12:52 pm

      The last year of the Blair-Brown government had Labour on 355.

      The current trend has Labour on 266.

      The 266 result is closest to Labour’s 1979 result.
      That’s the one that Callaghan lost and Thatcher won for the first time.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_1979

      So no, Socialism is not back.
      This is just a good recovery from a complete and utter disaster last time.

      • Draco T Bastard 21.2.1
        9 June 2017 at 1:10 pm

        Wrong numbers.

        It’s 266 + 34 for SNP makes 300.

        We can assume that the lib-dems are more socialist than the Tories as well which would push it to 313 or so.

        And then there’s the 28 or so ‘others’ which we don’t know. They could all be socialist.

        So, yeah, it could be that socialism is back in the UK.

        It would be nice if they had a proportional electorate system as that would make it clearer.

        • Anne 21.2.1.1
          9 June 2017 at 1:15 pm

          Further to that, the BBC have just updated the the difference between the Exit Poll result and the actual results thus far and it’s proving to be almost bang on.

          That probably means bye, bye Theresa May and hello Boris Johnson and another election in less that a year which Labour are likely to win hands down?

          That assumes Labour are not going to quite make it but fingers stay crossed…

          • dukeofurl 21.2.1.1.1
            9 June 2017 at 1:27 pm

            No there wont be another election in a year . They have a 5 year fixed terms, and after this one no one will be looking at snap polls for a generation. The voters will punish however calls it.

        • weka 21.2.1.2
          9 June 2017 at 1:47 pm

          +1

          Also, it’s the upswing in support for Corbyn’s Labour that is important. It takes time for people to realise that neoliberalism is dying and there is a better option. The shift in the culture is huge even if Labour lose.

          Plus the non-vote (haven’t seen any turnout figures yet).

        • Ad 21.2.1.3
          9 June 2017 at 2:01 pm

          Correct numbers.

          You are wrong to equate Labour and SNP.

          My comparison was Labour to Labour seats.

          Not Labour to Fantasy.

          • Draco T Bastard 21.2.1.3.1
            9 June 2017 at 4:08 pm

            My comparison was Labour to Labour seats.

            Which is the wrong comparison.

            The comparison is Tory to Socialist.

            My comparison was Labour to Labour seats.

            Which is wrong.

            Not Labour to Fantasy.

            You’re the one trying to fantasise away a large percentage of the UK population.

      • dukeofurl 21.2.2
        9 June 2017 at 1:31 pm

        You are forgetting the seats in Scotland that switched from labour to SNP. They used to be a minor party in Westminster with a handful in the years you are talking about. Scottish independence has scrambled labours vote there for the last two.

        But they are essentially the same labour voters , so as a rough calculation add 50 seats to the last two elections for labours numbers.

  22. Armada 22
    9 June 2017 at 12:18 pm

    The DUP will support the Tories and try to row back The Good Friday agreement and relationship with the EU and The Republic of Ireland.
    They shafted their founder, Ian Paisley, for enteringing into the agreememts that have led to peace: i.e. Paisley was not extreme enough for them. Many are creationist and would be more at home with US Republicans like Cruz!

    • weka 22.1
      9 June 2017 at 12:25 pm

      ta. So more like this,

      Lab 232
      SNP 56
      Plaid Cymru 3
      Green 1

      LibDem 8

      Cons 330
      UKIP 1
      DUP – unionist 8

      other Northern Ireland
      Sinn Fein – has said they won’t take their seats parliament 4
      SDLP – social democratic 3

      Ulster UP – unionist 2

      Speaker 1
      Independent 1

  23. greywarshark 23
    9 June 2017 at 12:25 pm

    Just repeating a tweet from above – a really great quote, almost Churchillian!
    From Jeremy Corbyn apparently –

    Corbyn: “You don’t deal with a threat to democracy by taking away democracy. You deal with the threat.”

  24. AB 24
    9 June 2017 at 12:25 pm

    Labour just narrowly won an SNP seat. ( Rutherglen & Hamilton West with a 0.5% majority)
    I hope Scottish Labour don’t split the vote and let the Cons in in Scotland!

  25. Ovid 25
    9 June 2017 at 12:29 pm

    One bookie now has Corbyn leading May to be next PM.

  26. Sanctuary 26
    9 June 2017 at 12:30 pm

    Who is afraid of the Daily Mail now?

  27. Robert Guyton 27
    9 June 2017 at 12:49 pm

    Punters at Kiwiblog seem … startled? unsettled? snookered?
    Hard to tell…commenters are…subdued…

    • Ad 27.1
      9 June 2017 at 12:55 pm

      Completely appropriate to be subdued on this performance.
      It leaves the UK citizens with a weak government.
      It leaves Labour slightly better than 2015.
      That’s it.

      • dukeofurl 27.1.1
        9 June 2017 at 1:02 pm

        Weak government ?
        have you learnt nothing from how national and labour has worked in NZ. Even the Liberals/nationals do fine with just 1 seat majority.
        Sure not everything sails through, nor should it.

        The sort of shove everything through parliament is so last century

        • Ad 27.1.1.1
          9 June 2017 at 1:58 pm

          Ours is mild, with minor shifts each time. Even our media get that.

          Neither their parliament nor their media are ready for this.

          It’s going to take months to settle, ie weak.

  28. swordfish 28
    9 June 2017 at 12:52 pm

    Final Polls

    Survation …….……. Tory Lead 1%
    SurveyMonkey ….. Tory Lead 4%

    ….. closest Pollsters in 2015 and closest Pollsters once again by the look of it.

    https://thestandard.org.nz/pre-uk-election-discussion/#comment-1338122

    YouGov, meanwhile, lost its bottle at the last moment ….. changed its methodology
    for the final Poll after sustained sneering from other Pollsters, the media, and Tories’ pet US Democrat Jim Messina (= transformed 2 point Tory Lead to 7).

    Their experimental model’s looking good, of course, but they really can’t have it both ways.

    • dukeofurl 28.1
      9 June 2017 at 1:09 pm

      You have scrambled You Govs two different types of polls

      Their weekly panel with 55K resonders was much the same as 42-38%
      Their separate polling using normal techniques for the Times ( 2.2k response ) was 42 – 35. It was previously 42-38.
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

      as well , the national numbers cant be a predictor of seat results. Labour normally has a higher number of seats than its national average of votes

      • swordfish 28.1.1
        9 June 2017 at 1:25 pm

        Haven’t “scrambled” anything !

        I made it crystal clear that these are entirely separate and simply suggested that YouGov can’t have their cake and eat it

        YouGov’s changed methodology for its final Poll (conventional polling for the Times) transformed 2 point Tory Lead to 7

        Try re-reading my comment and try not to be quite so silly and Gotcha !!!-style ultra-competitive

  29. Editractor 29
    9 June 2017 at 1:19 pm

    Labour win Stockton South. Interesting because it looks like the UKIP vote collapsed and went predominantly to Labour (with a few Lib Dem and Green votes possibly going their way as well). Turnout not changed much either (69 to 71%) – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockton_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

  30. BM 30
    9 June 2017 at 1:20 pm

    Hilarious, Poms will be leaving by the boatload if Corbyn wins.

    I expect the pound will go to parity with the US dollar if labours pulls this off.

    • Editractor 30.1
      9 June 2017 at 1:29 pm

      “Poms will be leaving by the boatload if Corbyn wins”.

      The ferries only go to Northern Ireland or Europe, so I doubt it.

      • saveNZ 30.1.1
        9 June 2017 at 1:33 pm

        NZ’s lucky day… (sarc)

      • dukeofurl 30.1.2
        9 June 2017 at 1:37 pm

        “Poms will be leaving by the boatload if Corbyn wins”.

        There is something like 1.2 mill UK expats in Europe , So whats New

    • Enough is Enough 30.2
      9 June 2017 at 1:37 pm

      as long as the tory bastards don’t come here, that will be a good thing for the UK

    • greywarshark 30.3
      9 June 2017 at 2:07 pm

      The beauty of living in Britain of recent years is that Poms have been free to come and go, live, leave and return as they wished. Unlike us, stuck on the bottom of the world a constantly flaring pimple, next to the great big boil of Australia.

      However Brits have seen their nation run down by the cult-like neo-liberals and have stupidly given up the idea of being connected in bonds of inter-commitment and shared increments of personal bounty. Now they have much less, and they don’t know how best to recover some of what they have lost.

    • james 30.4
      9 June 2017 at 3:27 pm

      Not really – after all the voted for him in serious numbers – why would they leave?

  31. Enough is Enough 31
    9 June 2017 at 1:29 pm

    This is beginning to feel just like Brexit and the election of Trump.

    The unthinkable is happening before our eyes. The result no one predicted.

    Here comes PM Corbyn.

    • saveNZ 31.1
      9 June 2017 at 1:36 pm

      Fingers crossed, but it’s looking promising. Someone with integrity against all the odds finally being PM of Britain.

    • Blackcap 31.2
      9 June 2017 at 1:45 pm

      Markets do not like Corbyn’s chances. He is currently (1:44pm NZ time) a 7-1 shot of being PM. Might be a good dabble 🙂

  32. weka 32
    9 June 2017 at 1:38 pm

    Owen Jones‏Verified account @OwenJones84 21m21 minutes ago

    So everyone please applaud @RupaHuq and her campaigners. Today she defended a 274 majority. Today she won a 14,000 majority. ✊

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872985621240872962

  33. swordfish 33
    9 June 2017 at 1:49 pm

    New Statesman (half an hour ago)

    Here’s where we are.

    Labour have made remarkable strides in England and Wales.

    But regrettably, the Conservative decline in England is being matched by forward strides in Scotland.

    It now looks as if the Tories will end up able to govern, either alone or with the help of the Unionist parties. But it is very, very close.

    • RedLogix 33.1
      9 June 2017 at 1:58 pm

      So Scotland finishes up forcing a Tory govt on England? How utterly bizarre … and karmic at the same time.

      • swordfish 33.1.1
        9 June 2017 at 2:18 pm

        Yep, quite possibly ….. irony of ironies ….. though still knife-edge stuff, nothing’s quite cast in stone at this point

        Unfortunately, Tory-friendly DUP doing very well in Ulster too

  34. swordfish 34
    9 June 2017 at 2:05 pm

    LD’s Nick Clegg has lost his seat to Labour.

    LD’s Vince Cable has won his old Twickenham seat off the Tories, on a massive swing

    Tim Farron may lose his seat

    Conservatives have beaten SNP’s Angus Robertson in Moray

    • dukeofurl 34.1
      9 June 2017 at 2:12 pm

      Guardian side bar is wrong ‘Lib Dem fails to take Twickenham’ yet details give it as a hold.
      Also party totals out as LibDems have lost Nick Cleggs seat. They say 0 change.!

  35. JC 35
    9 June 2017 at 2:25 pm

    “Corbyn calling on May to resign” ??
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak

  36. swordfish 36
    9 June 2017 at 2:25 pm

    New Statesman (Good Summary)

    Here’s where we are.

    Labour have gained seats in England, Wales and Scotland, from the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP. They have lost the seat of Walsall to the Tories.

    The Conservatives have lost seats in England and Wales to Labour, but have swapped seats with the Liberal Democrats, losing Twickenham but gaining Southport.

    The SNP are losing seats to everybody. Conservative gains, in excess of that predicted at the start of the night, looking to be making up for at least some of the lost seats elsewhere.

    In Northern IReland, the Unionist parties are sweeping the board. The SDLP, Labour’s sister party, has been wiped out.

    That means that provided the Tories can finish with more than 310 seats, they will still be in office.

    The result is a massive triumph and a huge step forward for Labour, who have closed the gap in many marginals that became near-unwinnable in 2015.

  37. weka 37
    9 June 2017 at 2:36 pm

    Owen Jones‏Verified account @OwenJones84 38m38 minutes ago

    Labour’s surge is so great, they’ve halved Boris Johnson’s majority. What a tweet to be able to type #Election2017

    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/872996345417793536

  38. Ad 38
    9 June 2017 at 2:39 pm

    If I was Theresa May, I would be getting ready to invite Labour to support key policies from the cross benches.

    In particular BREXIT and the terrorism responses.

    She needs to get someone else to hold the lightning rod for a while and stop any opportunity for Corbyn.

  39. Carolyn_nth 39
    9 June 2017 at 2:47 pm

    Twitter is telling me Labour have taken Canterbury, which has been Tory since 1841!

    “Come gather round people wherever you roam…”

    • weka 39.1
      9 June 2017 at 2:52 pm

      It’s very moving, whatever happens.

    • swordfish 39.2
      9 June 2017 at 3:06 pm

      Yep – Tory since 1841

      Labour soaring by more than 20 points on its 2015 Canterbury result to score 45% to Conservatives’ 44.7%.

      On a big turnout of 72.7%

    • Anne 39.3
      9 June 2017 at 3:29 pm

      My English roots (parents) are rattling to jump out…

  40. weka 40
    9 June 2017 at 2:51 pm

    “From 4am a deluge of results from key swing seats across the country are expected to come through.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2017/jun/08/live-uk-election-results-in-full-2017

    that’s round about now NZT.

  41. greywarshark 41
    9 June 2017 at 2:52 pm

    Discussion from the The Herald Scotland Political Editor on how they are going. It looks in the balance for a number of Scottish electorates whether the SNP will still hold them, though they remain confident that in Scotland they will have a majority of the seats and still have power in London.

    The images are great of the great hall for vote counting. Everyone is fully involved, good to see how democratic vote system can work. And the voting forms being emptied out onto the counters benches, one woman reaching up with her green rubber sorting ‘thumb’ at the ready. Literally hands on and transparent, so no hacker opportunity here.

    The contention up there seems to be about whether they should have a second costly referendum so soon, as it is divisive.
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15337601.SNP_set_to_lose_22_seats_in_worst_electoral_reverse_for_almost_40_years/?ref=mrb&lp=5#

    • dukeofurl 41.1
      9 June 2017 at 3:30 pm

      The first one was ‘once in a generation’, thats more likely true. if the Scots hated Brexit so much , why did they vote Tory in Scotland ?

  42. greywarshark 42
    9 June 2017 at 3:09 pm

    Looking at the northern tip of Scotland, is a big area with a bit under 30,000 voters and the Lib Dems rich gold colour has taken with about 11,000 and SNP two thousand less and trailed by Cons less another two thousand.

  43. Kevin 43
    9 June 2017 at 3:17 pm

    Mr ‘Unelectable’ is doing all right.

  44. Cemetery Jones 44
    9 June 2017 at 3:18 pm

    UKIP got totally waxed because Article 50 and Nick Clegg have been triggered, so job seen as done. Looks like about a third of their voters returned to the Conservatives and two thirds to Labour.

    SNP getting BTFO too – minus 16 seats and counting. That’s going to make Sturgeon’s arguments for IndyRef2 a little harder – this could easily be seen to be a rebuke given how tactical voters have clearly been in some of these seats.

    • dukeofurl 44.1
      9 June 2017 at 3:27 pm

      Even the architect of the independence referendum Alex Salmond is gone

      • Cemetery Jones 44.1.1
        9 June 2017 at 3:42 pm

        Yeah that’s massive – and while I’m not a major SNP fan, I do actually feel sorry for him in ways I don’t for Angus Robertson.

        Also: Yessss the Beast of Bolsover is back! Dennis Skinner holds his seat!

        Bolsover
        Lab hold Bolsover with a 11.4% majority, 63% turnout

        candidates votes %
        Dennis Skinner 24,153 51.9
        Helen Harrison 18,865 40.5
        Philip Rose 2,129 4.6
        Ross Shipman 1,372 3.0

  45. swordfish 45
    9 June 2017 at 3:21 pm

    After 356 seats declared, projected UK vote share –

    Conservative 43.1%,
    Labour 39.7%

    Which would mean Lab 3.5 points up on 2005 Blair’s Labour

    • swordfish 45.1
      9 June 2017 at 3:35 pm

      Blair – that wonderful old showbiz chanteuse – who suggested in 2015:

      The party is walking eyes shut, arms outstretched, over the cliff’s edge to the jagged rocks below … If Jeremy Corbyn becomes leader it won’t be a defeat like 1983 or 2015 at the next election. It will mean rout, possibly annihilation..

      And, if I remember rightly, he and other Blairite / Brownite critics of Corbyn put a specific figure on that putative “rout”, suggesting he’d drive Labour support down well below 20% at the following Election if he was still leading.

      • gsays 45.1.1
        9 June 2017 at 7:17 pm

        Hi swordfish,
        Nice quote.
        Thank you for your analysis and commentary.
        Along with Bill, I trust your judgement.

    • Macro 45.2
      9 June 2017 at 3:55 pm

      On the basis of 540 results that are in (out of 650), here are the overall figures for numbers of seats, gains, losses, number of votes etc. The figures are from the Press Association.

      Conservatives

      Total: 248

      Gains: 15

      Losses: 25

      Total votes: 11,009,108

      Vote share: 41.59%

      Change: +5.94

      Forecast: 320

      Labour

      Total: 228

      Gains: 30

      Losses: 3

      Total votes: 10,719,321

      Vote share: 40.50%

      Change: +9.44

      Forecast: 260

      An even more close contest than you suggest.
      41.6% : 40.5%

  46. Editractor 46
    9 June 2017 at 3:22 pm

    “UK election turnout up in nearly every seat in possible boost for Jeremy Corbyn” – http://www.independent.co.uk/News/uk/politics/uk-election-turnout-up-results-labour-jeremy-corbyn-boost-latest-news-updates-a7780446.html

    I wonder if the headline should read “UK election turnout up in nearly every seat, possibly boosted because of Jeremy Corbyn”. Lessons to be learned on how to get people out to vote?

    If it’s up 4% at that point and turnout was 66% in 2015, it would be great if they could break 70% by the end of the count.

  47. Sanctuary 47
    9 June 2017 at 3:23 pm

    These Tory landslides aren’t what they used to be.

    BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

  48. Anne 48
    9 June 2017 at 3:26 pm

    Latest prediction by the BBC expert (dunno his name), Britain is heading for a hung parliament. That means the fun has only just started. 🙂

  49. james 49
    9 June 2017 at 3:32 pm

    What ever happens from this point on in with the results a few things are clear.

    1 – May – in calling a snap election when she didn’t have to (and having it backfire so spectacularly) , will go down in history as one of politics greatest “dumb assed moves”

    2 – People who predicted Corbyn as “unelectable” or a “walking disaster” (And I was one) – Need to admit they got that seriously wrong. There are a lot of the population that back him – perhaps its time for a little more listening.

    3 – Dont be asshats – people voted for him – dosnt matter if you dont like the outcome – it should be respected.

    • Enough is Enough 49.1
      9 June 2017 at 3:40 pm

      Well Said James

      • Cemetery Jones 49.1.1
        9 June 2017 at 3:47 pm

        Agreed, I think those are the insights of the night. I have to admit I was wavering on Corbyn’s chances, though mostly because he’s too easily cucked on Brexit and Islamic terrorism, rather than anything pundits had to say. But hey, I don’t see him being overthrown as leader of the opposition now, so there’s always a chance he’ll harden up, or simply not be PM until Brexit has already happened.

    • The decrypter 49.2
      9 June 2017 at 3:56 pm

      You should be a cub reporter for the Herald james.

  50. Macro 50
    9 June 2017 at 4:02 pm

    The other result from this election where the popular voting is almost 40% to 40% Conservative : Labour but the Tories end up with around 320 seats to Labours 230 is that the FPP system of single electorates is seriously f**ked as far as democratic representation in Parliament is concerned.

  51. weka 51
    9 June 2017 at 5:51 pm

    as of 5.50pm there are 9 seats to count and the Tories need 5 to get a majority with DUP.

    • weka 51.1
      9 June 2017 at 5:59 pm

      except the Guardian graphic isn’t taking Sinn Fein into account 🙁

      • dukeofurl 51.1.1
        9 June 2017 at 6:15 pm

        They are under ‘other’

        Effectively the majority to be reached is not 326 ( 350/2 +1) but is 319

    • Poission 51.2
      9 June 2017 at 6:01 pm

      650 seats minus Sinn Fein (to take their seat they are required to swear allegiance to HRH) hence

      650-7= 643

      Conservatives 312
      DUP 10
      ——
      322 -643 =321

      Game over.

      • Poission 51.2.1
        9 June 2017 at 6:06 pm

        Update DUP website has crashed due to heavy traffic,Foster previously said couldn’t support Corbyn due to his previous support of IRA.

        • weka 51.2.1.1
          9 June 2017 at 6:14 pm

          Is it a given that they will support the Tories? They could sit in the cross benches.

          • dukeofurl 51.2.1.1.1
            9 June 2017 at 6:18 pm

            All NI Unionist parties have been aligned with Conservatives when it suits.
            The Scottish Conservatives used to be a separate party called Unionist.

          • Poission 51.2.1.1.2
            9 June 2017 at 6:28 pm

            Foster framed the election as a NI vote on the union (UK) and brexit (they are devout leavers) NI now gets to wag the dog.

      • weka 51.2.2
        9 June 2017 at 6:07 pm

        ta, just caught on to the graphic I was following not taking SF into account.

  52. greywarshark 52
    9 June 2017 at 5:58 pm

    Using Herald Scotland site that Bill put up this morning the latest is:

    Labour 260
    SNP 35
    LibDems 12
    Plaid Cymru 4
    Green 1

    Conservative 312
    Other 18
    UKIP 0

    Tightrope walking time. Doesn’t mention NI.

  53. greywarshark 53
    9 June 2017 at 6:04 pm

    Further to figures just put up, North and Southeast Cornwall, St Ives and Devizes not through yet.
    But Truro and Falmouth hold for Conservatives, Redruth etc. Fairly Conservative down there I think. All the tin miners emigrated I think.

  54. dukeofurl 54
    9 June 2017 at 6:13 pm

    Too vague, its just seems to be taken from Guardian data.

    Northern Island has been left out, and yet they decide the election with DUP going with Conservatives and Sinn Fein seats not counted ( making easier for Tories)

  55. dukeofurl 55
    9 June 2017 at 6:28 pm

    The only seats outstanding are Tory, 5
    Some of those are marginal, and the just picked up a Lib Dem, but their marginals are in the South West. LibDem territory
    St Ives, Cornwall Nth and Newquay

  56. mauī 56
    9 June 2017 at 6:33 pm

    Bugger, not that I know much about UK politics but it looks like a Conservatives/DUP (Northern Irish) government.

    So close but yet so far for Labour.

  57. greywarshark 57
    9 June 2017 at 6:45 pm

    Latest –
    L 261
    SNP LD PC G 52 = 313

    Cons 314

    And 18 – All NI?
    DUP NI 8
    Social Democratic
    & Labour (NI) 3
    Ulster Unionists NI 2
    Sinn Fein NI 4

    Which is 17 seats in last election now 18 ?

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