What goes up
Written By:
- Date published:
5:21 am, July 7th, 2009 - 15 comments
Categories: economy, housing -
Tags: bubble, recession
There’s a lot of empty, over-optimistic talk around at the moment about ‘green-shoots’ in the economy. Supposedly, these are little early signs of recovery which mean that soon everything will be back to normal and we can go back to getting rich selling each other houses with money we borrowed from the Japanese. Things will get better in time but this green-shoots mantra is more of the economic utopianism that got us into this mess in the first place.
The favourite ‘green-shoot’ is stabilisation of house prices. Unsurprisingly, the chief cheerleaders of the housing green-shoots theory are the banks and the newspapers that gleefully any industry report that claims house prices are stabilising. It’s in their financial interest to talk up the housing market as much as possible. The banks make money by lending it to you so you can buy a house, plus they stand to lose big-time if house prices drop too much and they’re left trying to make back their losses on mortgagee sale . The newspapers depend on advertising for their existence, principally (now that jobs and classifieds are online) house ads.
They’re forgetting the fundamentals. Usually, the growth in value of the housing stock tracks reasonably close to GDP growth over the medium-term, little booms, little dead patches. Then, over five years (2002-2007) the value of NZ’s housing stock grew (on paper) by 100%, while the economy grew just 34%. The graph shows just how huge that bubble was
(I’ve gone back as far as the Stats data will let me, infoshare is cool btw)
The housing bubble has deflated at bit but there’s still a long way back down before we can say the over-valuation has unwound completely.
Effectively, the banks, the newspapers, and the other housing ‘green-shoots’ promoters are trying to re-inflate the bubble for their own short-term financial interests. But an economy cannot survive on bubblenomics forever. Eventually, reality prevails and what went up comes down again. We can’t avoid the fact that house prices still need to come down a long way, rapidly or slowly. Trying to forestall that will only makes things worse in the end.
Still, at least we’re not in the States – they went up higher, they’ve come down harder, and now government and the financiers are colluding to take huge risks with their economy’s future in an effort to breathe air back into the bubble. But that’s a topic for another post.
– Marty G
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- Release: Three strikes law political posturing of worst kindThe Government is bringing back a law that has little evidential backing just to look tough, Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government cuts unbelievably target child exploitation, violent extremism, ports and airpor...Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...2 weeks ago
- Three strikes has failed before and will fail againResurrecting the archaic three-strikes legislation is an unwelcome return to a failed American-style approach to justice. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Environmental protection vital, not ‘onerous’The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Ferris – Three Strikes targets those ‘too brown to be white’The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt cuts doctors and nurses in hiring freezeCuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...3 weeks ago
- Fast-track submissions period must be extendedThe Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Progress on climate will be undone by GovtNew Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...3 weeks ago
- Ceasefire agreement needed now: Peters
New Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...1 hour ago - Daily school attendance data now availableA new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...2 hours ago
- Ambassador to United States appointedForeign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...5 hours ago
- New permit proposed for recreational gold miningThe Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...6 hours ago
- NZ and the UAE launch FTA negotiationsMinister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...10 hours ago
- New Zealand Sign Language Week an opportunity for anyone to signNew Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...21 hours ago
- Next stop NASA for New Zealand studentsSix tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...21 hours ago
- $1.9 billion investment to keep NZ safe from crimeNew Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...22 hours ago
- OECD reinforces need to control spendingThe OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...1 day ago
- Agreement delivers Local Water Done Well for AucklandThe Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...2 days ago
- Gaza and the Pacific on the agenda with GermanyForeign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...3 days ago
- Decision allows for housing growth in Western Bay of PlentyThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...4 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand China CouncilThank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...4 days ago
- Modern insurance law will protect Kiwi householdsThe Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...5 days ago
- Government recommits to equal payThe coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...5 days ago
- Transforming how our children learn to readStructured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...5 days ago
- NZ not backing down in Canada dairy disputeTrade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...5 days ago
- Stronger oversight for our most vulnerable childrenThe rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...5 days ago
- Streamlining Building Consent ChangesThe Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...5 days ago
- Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...6 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...6 days ago
- Accelerating airport security linesFrom today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...6 days ago
- Community hui to talk about kina barrensPeople with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...6 days ago
- Kiwi exporters win as NZ-EU FTA enters into forceKiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...6 days ago
- Mining resurgence a welcome signThere are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...6 days ago
- Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first readingThe return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...7 days ago
- Government to boost public EV charging networkEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...7 days ago
- Residential Property Managers Bill to not progressThe coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...7 days ago
- Independent review into disability support servicesThe Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...1 week ago
- Justice Minister updates UN on law & order planJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...1 week ago
- Ending emergency housing motels in RotoruaThe Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...1 week ago
- Trade Minister travels to Riyadh, OECD, and DubaiTrade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...1 week ago
- Education priorities focused on lifting achievementEducation Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...1 week ago
- NZTA App first step towards digital driver licenceThe new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...1 week ago
- Supporting whānau out of emergency housingWhānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...1 week ago
- Tribute to Dave O'SullivanRacing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...1 week ago
- Speech – Eid al-FitrAssalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...1 week ago
- Government saves access to medicinesAssociate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...1 week ago
- Pharmac Chair appointedHon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...1 week ago
- Taking action on Fetal Alcohol Spectrum DisorderHundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...1 week ago
- Green MP Julie Anne Genter referred to Privileges Committee
Gerry Brownlee referred her to the Privileges Committee over complaints about her behaviour in the House. ...40 mins ago - Government begins weekly reporting of school attendance figuresSchools should aim to have 94 percent of their pupils in class every day, David Seymour says. ...52 mins ago
- Iran is gaining credibility in the Muslim world and feeling emboldened. This doesn’t bode well for...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shahram Akbarzadeh, Convenor of the Middle East Studies Forum (MESF), and Acting Director the Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University Iran’s leadership has been a direct beneficiary of the months-long war in Gaza. With every missile that Israel fires ...2 hours ago - ‘Uncanny notes that plague this place’: Hagstone by Sinéad Gleeson, reviewed
Claire Mabey reviews the haunting and sexy debut novel from Sinéad Gleeson, who is about to touch down in Aotearoa for a string of live events. When Irish writer Sinéad Gleeson was in Aotearoa in 2018 with her spectacular collection of essays, Constellations, she told me she was working on ...2 hours ago - Bougainville ‘other avenues’ report ‘sensationalised’, claims MakibaPNG Post-Courier Bougainville Affairs Minister Manasseh Makiba has described the Post-Courier’s front page story yesterday regarding a meeting between Bougainville and national government leaders as “sensationalised” and without substance. The Autonomous Bougainville Government (AGB) had warned it might use “other avenues to gain its independence” should the PNG government “continue ...3 hours ago
- Government on track for increased deficit despite fall in spending – TreasuryThe government books are worsening as a fall in tax outpaces cuts to spending, leaving it on course to post a sizable deficit. ...3 hours ago
- Luxon and Mitchell weren’t mixed up, they were using girl mathsWhere some saw the worst press conference given by the government to date, Anna Rawhiti-Connell recognised girl maths game. Nicola Willis, recently exasperated by comparisons to Ruth Richardson, said she was “a bit sick of being compared with every female finance minister that’s ever been out there.” Some think that’s ...4 hours ago
- Interim Financial Statements Of The Government Of New Zealand For The Nine Months Ended 31 March 20...
The March results are reported against forecasts based on the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2023 (HYEFU 2023), published on 20 December 2023 and the results for the same period for the previous year. ...4 hours ago - NZ First MP Jamie Arbuckle, who wanted to keep his pay as councillor pay too, changes his mindJamie Arbuckle, the district councillor who became an MP but decided to keep getting paid for both roles, will instead donate one salary to charity. ...4 hours ago
- Jamie Arbuckle MP – Re: My Position As Marlborough District CouncillorThis is my fifth term as a Marlborough District Councillor, I am passionate about local issues, and I will continue to work hard for my community. ...4 hours ago
- Adding gender to the Human Rights Act – what’s the big deal?Adding gender to the Human Rights Act would simply make the implicit explicit. So why is it so controversial? Paul Thistoll explain. At present, Aotearoa’s 1993 Human Rights Act (HRA) includes sex, marital status, religious belief, ethical belief (meaning a lack of religious belief), colour, race, ethnicity or national origin, ...4 hours ago
- Carmel Sepuloni believed to be contestant on new season's Celebrity Treasure IslandThe new season of Celebrity Treasure Island is due to hit New Zealand screens later this year. ...5 hours ago
- The cost of being: A flatting student who’s saving for more tattoosAs part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, an 18-year-old who’s studying and working in hospo shares their approach to spending and saving. Want to be part of The Cost of Being? Fill out the questionnaire here. Gender: Transmasc Age: 18 Ethnicity: Pākehā/Māori Role: Student, ...6 hours ago
- 'He got it mixed up' – PM backs Corrections Minister despite announcement muddleThe prime minister is backing Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell, saying he "quickly clarified" a confusing media conference announcement. ...6 hours ago
- How the fast-track law could expose future NZ governments to expensive trade disputesSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Kelsey, Emeritus Professor of Law, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images Resources Minister Shane Jones has reportedly asked officials for advice on whether oil and gas companies could be offered “bonds” as compensation if drilling rights offered by ...7 hours ago
- Crisis of faith: why Australian women have so little trust in religious institutionsSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Gleeson, Associate Professor of Law, Macquarie University Shutterstock The Albanese government is weighing up the costs of delivering an election promise to protect religious people from discrimination in Commonwealth law. Such protections were relatively uncontroversial when included in state anti-discrimination ...7 hours ago
- Terminal lucidity: why do loved ones with dementia sometimes ‘come back’ before death?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yen Ying Lim, Associate Professor, Turner Institute for Brain and Mental Health, Monash University Pexels/Andrea Piacquadio Dementia is often described as “the long goodbye”. Although the person is still alive, dementia slowly and irreversibly chips away at their memories and the ...7 hours ago
- Making merry: how we brought Melbourne’s Merri Creek back from pollution, neglect and weedsSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Judy Bush, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, The University of Melbourne Adam Calaitzis/Shutterstock I met with a friend for a walk beside Merri Creek, in inner Melbourne. She had lived in the area for a few years, and as we walked ...7 hours ago
- This group rid one Australian river of its privet problem – and strengthened community along the w...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sonia Graham, DECRA Fellow, University of Wollongong Lekali Studio/Shutterstock Privet is a popular garden hedge. It grows quickly and responds well to being pruned. But in natural areas, privet is a problem. Like 72% of weeds in Australia, privet escaped ...7 hours ago
- Australian artists only earn $23,200 a year from their art – and are key financial investors in ke...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Throsby, Distinguished Professor of Economics, Macquarie University Arts companies and individual artists in Australia are supported by government arts agencies, philanthropists, industry bodies, private donors and patrons. However, it is frequently overlooked that a major source of support for the arts ...7 hours ago
- Experts Sign Open Letter To Legalise Drugs In New ZealandHarm Reduction Coalition Aotearoa, a new incorporated society dedicated to ending harmful drug policies, officially launched today, seeks a new fit-for-purpose drug law for Aotearoa New Zealand, rooted in science, experience and evidence. ...7 hours ago
- Politics live: Mark Mitchell, Christopher Luxon face questions after Corrections confusionThe Corrections Minister admits he "muddied the water" after he and the Prime Minister repeatedly provided incorrect information about a $1.9 billion prison spend-up. ...7 hours ago
- Messy press conference prompts correction over Corrections fundingIt took a post-post-cabinet statement to confirm that 810 new beds will be built at Waikeria, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. ...8 hours ago
- Politics live: Mark Mitchell, Christopher Luxon face questions after confusion CorrectionsThe Prime Minister and Corrections Minister repeatedly provided incorrect information about their $1.9 billion planned prison spend-up. ...8 hours ago
- Young Star burns bright for her Fiji family
Lili Tokaduadua was only 15 when she left her family in Fiji to pursue her netball dream in New Zealand. She’d been playing the sport for 10 years and was offered a netball scholarship at Auckland’s Howick College. Now, in her first year out of high school, the 19-year-old defender ...8 hours ago - Plucky Foodstuffs crushed by the iron fist of big bicycleThe beloved local grocers lost a legal challenge to stop a new cycleway outside their store. Joel MacManus reports. In the annals of New Zealand legal history, there are a few brave people who have dared to stand up to the powers that be, no matter how bleak the odds ...10 hours ago
- Seven graphs that show where New Zealand’s food comes from… and where it goesHow what we produce and what we eat connects us to the world beyond our shores, visualised. Walking around a supermarket or vege shop, it might be obvious that everything on the shelves came from somewhere. But you might ...10 hours ago
- Q&A – avian influenza H5N1Professor Jemma Geoghegan, of the University of Otago, Otakou Whakaihu Waka, co-leads a Te Niwha project aimed at understanding how and where avian influenza could affect Aotearoa New Zealand, as the highly infectious H5N1 virus spreads globally. The virus has now spread to all continents except Oceania and was recently ...10 hours ago
- The repressive underside of Rwanda’s regimeThirty years on from Rwanda’s genocide, is guilt over the atrocities is blinding the world to the true nature of its current leadership? The post The repressive underside of Rwanda’s regime appeared first on Newsroom. ...10 hours ago
- World shines a light on NZ’s human rights breachesOpinion: Last week, important recommendations for our criminal justice system were made by the international community. Every five years, each member of the United Nations has its human rights practices reviewed. This rolling event – the Universal Periodic Review – is the culmination of a government reporting on its human ...10 hours ago
- The mutant bird flu lurking on our bordersHighly pathogenic avian influenza – H5N1, or bird flu – has been flying around the world since the late 1990s. New Zealand, Australia and the Pacific Islands are so far free of it, but now it’s been discovered in mainland Antarctica and scientists say it’s only a matter of time ...10 hours ago
- Meridian Energy: no need to ‘engage’ locals ahead of fast-track applicationsFor projects of national significance, the energy giant recommends applicants need only “notify” those potentially affected The post Meridian Energy: no need to ‘engage’ locals ahead of fast-track applications appeared first on Newsroom. ...10 hours ago
- How Kiwis are getting their families out of PalestineMohammed paid $70,000 to get his 10 family members into Egypt. They still don’t have a clear way into New Zealand. The post How Kiwis are getting their families out of Palestine appeared first on Newsroom. ...10 hours ago
- Newsroom daily quiz, Tuesday 7 MayLoading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A,DIV,A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Tuesday 7 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...10 hours ago
- On the legendary Phil Wood of Phil Wood Menswear, WestportThe following interview with auto electrician and former caver Stu Berendt, 68, of Charleston on the West Coast, came about because he was part of the caving team that found the rare and amazing fossil remains of the giant Haast eagle, the subject of one of the year’s best books, ...10 hours ago
- The economic case against conscriptionOpinion: How economists helped to end slavery and conscription in the US and elsewhere The post The economic case against conscription appeared first on Newsroom. ...10 hours ago
- Can Pharmac do more with the same pot of money?A $1.8b funding boost for Pharmac still won’t enable it to buy more drugs, raising questions about the Government’s approach to the agency The post Can Pharmac do more with the same pot of money? appeared first on Newsroom. ...10 hours ago
- National progressing changes to NZ Super’s ownership rulesLabour early last year introduced a bill to allow New Zealand’s pension fund to own more than half of a company or asset The post National progressing changes to NZ Super’s ownership rules appeared first on Newsroom. ...10 hours ago
- Neediest areas are being shortchanged on government funds − even with programs designed to benefit...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eric Stokan, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Maryland, Baltimore County If you live in one of the most economically deprived neighborhoods in your city, you might think the government is directing a smaller share of public funds to your community. ...14 hours ago
- Tackling Pacific media’s crucial role in climate crisis and press freedomWansolwara The news media’s crucial role in climate change and environment journalism was the focus of The University of the South Pacific’s Journalism Programme 2024 World Press Freedom Day celebrations. The European Union Ambassador to the Pacific, Barbara Plinkert, and Pacific Islands Forum Secretary General Henry Puna were the chief ...16 hours ago
- QANTAS has finally settled its ‘ghost flights’ lawsuit for $120 million. What’s next?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Adams, Professor of Corporate Law & Academic Director of UNE Sydney campus, University of New England Last August, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) launched legal proceedings against Qantas. The consumer watchdog accused the airline of selling thousands of tickets ...17 hours ago
- Contradictions and confusion: More questions than answers at government press conferenceThe Prime Minister and Corrections Minister repeatedly provided incorrect information about their $1.9 billion planned prison spend-up. ...19 hours ago
- A View from Afar: Buchanan and Manning – A moment of frictionThis episode of A View From Afar was recorded LIVE on May 6, 2024 (NZST) which is Sunday evening, May 5, 2024 at 8:30pm (USEST). In an analytical essay titled ‘A moment of friction’ political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan wrote how we are living within a decisive moment ...20 hours ago
- Can I take your order – and your data? The hidden reason retailers are replacing staff with AI bot...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cameron Shackell, Sessional Academic and Visitor, School of Information Systems, Queensland University of Technology Linus Zoll / Google DeepMind / Unsplash You might have seen viral videos of Wendy’s drive-thru customers in the United States ordering their fast food from the ...20 hours ago
- The steamiest movie of the year has almost no sex in it. How did Challengers do it?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Taylor, Assistant Professor, Bond University Metro Goldwyn Mayer Pictures At the crux of the critical response to Luca Guadagnino’s new movie Challengers is one word: “sexy”. The film charts a love triangle between three up-and-coming tennis players: Tashi (Zendaya), ...20 hours ago
- The Australian public service is letting Indigenous people down. How do we fix it?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jenny Stewart, Professor of Public Policy, ADFA Canberra, UNSW Sydney For years, First Nations people have been telling governments they want to be listened to. In particular, they want more ownership of the programs and services that are supposed to help them. ...22 hours ago
- Curious Kids: why do trees have bark?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Moore, Senior Research Associate, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne Why do trees have bark? Julien, age 6, Melbourne. This is a great question, Julien. We are so familiar with bark on trees, that most of us ...22 hours ago
- Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announces $1.9 billion plan to make NZ saferThe Prime Minister says there will be a "significant investment" in funding for frontline Corrections staffing and services. ...22 hours ago
- Surgery is the default treatment for ACL injuries in Australia. But it’s not the only waySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Nasser, Senior Lecturer in Physiotherapy, University of Technology Sydney PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock The anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) is an important ligament in the knee. It runs from the thigh bone (femur) to the shin bone (tibia) and helps stabilise ...23 hours ago
- Inflation, education and productivity: Some of the problems NZ needs to fix, according to the OECDThe country is being told it needs to get inflation under control, balance the books, raise educational achievement, and lift productivity. ...23 hours ago
- Live: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's post-Cabinet updateWatch RNZ's livestream of the press conference and follow our blog for all the latest updates. ...23 hours ago
- Voluntary redundancies at Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment bring its tally of job los...The latest round of voluntary redundancies at the ministry has lifted RNZ's count of public sector job cuts to more than 4000. ...24 hours ago
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Actually I pretty much agree with this.
Here is a rent or buy calculator from the NY Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html
The only thing I see going up real fast is unemployment.
As an owner of a fully paid for house, I built it myself to reduce costs, I welcome the stabilisation of the market becuase it reassures me that my efforts were not wasted.
What IS wrong with the system is the beaurocratic nighmare of consents inflicted on the person trying to get ahead on their own efforts by the previous Labour Government.
I have a pony, it’s a pink pony ‘cos that’s my favourite colour for ponies.
The trouble is the damn pony club won’t let me join ‘cos I like to veer wildly from the pony track and ruin the races.
Actually the pony club wont let you ride the way you like in your own paddock because they reckon they know how to ride best.
Oh and by the way I hope you have a pony registration? You cant just get a pony any time you want now can you.
whoooosh…
is that the sound of a burnt strawman?
They also ignore the Japan experience.
I think the Auckland house prices come down to a simple issue of supply and demand.
On the Supply side:
• With the collapse of the finance companies, property developers lost their source of funding. So there are very few new housing developments being completed.
• New home construction is well down, and section sales are very slow. As house prices have fallen, buying an existing home has become more cost effective than building a new home. Also construction loans have become more difficult to obtain as the Banks tightened their lending criteria.
On the Demand side:
• Kiwis are returning from overseas as they lose their jobs in the UK and elsewhere.
• Immigration to NZ will increase as our unemployment rate is lower than most other countries. New immigrants tend to gravitate to the big cities like Auckland where the jobs are.
• As job losses mount in small NZ towns e.g. Wellsford then people tend to head to the big cities in search of work.
So Demand is increasing as Supply is decreasing, which points to house prices creeping up rather than falling.
The other critical factor affecting house sales is the availability of Bank finance. This practically dried up late last year as the Banks recoiled from the Credit Crunch shock. Most lenders reduced lending to 80% and this instantly wiped out a huge number of potential buyers. However, at the moment there are currently 5 first mortgage lenders providing finance of between 85% to 95%. On top of that some finance companies who have got their deposit guarantees in place are back in the market providing second mortgages of up to 15% behind a Bank first mortgage of 80%.
So I don’t subscribe to the theory that Auckland house prices will keep falling.
And all of those people you listed can’t afford the inflated prices. Puts a bit of a damper on things wouldn’t you say?
No Draco. If they can’t buy a house, they will still rent one. If the population of Auckland increases faster than the housing supply, house prices can only go one way.
Now that other investment returns are poor, investment property is back in vogue.
David Farrar says:
“Incresase suburban sprawl to reduce house prices – market good, local govt regs bad.”
Repeat ad-nauseam for Nact’s answer to this post…
As I have explained on many occasions to people like Owen McShane (he doesn’t argue with me about it anymore so I guess it got through) is that what matter is housing supply, not land supply.
What matters is that so little intensification has been possible in Auckland over the last decade because councils have been so utterly useless at rezoning land for intensification. Just have a look around the Auckland City Council District Plan and see how much “Residential 8” zone you can find. Barely any. This was meant to be the main tool in providing for intensification in Auckland City, but the council got scared off by a few Panmure residents and has basically abandoned the project.
Planning rules are also designed around encouraging sprawl and not intensification – basically as soon as you want to put more than 4 units on a site (no matter how bit the site is) you get chucked into the deep end of an enormously long and complex consenting process. While ensuring good urban design outcomes via a consenting process is essential – so much more could be done to streamline this process and make it easier for developers to undertake intensification.
The last, and potentially most important factor in rising house prices has been the withdrawal from the public provision of housing – both from central government and local government. Provision of housing is a basic human need, and when not enough housing is provided what is left becomes more scarce and less affordable. So what’s the government doing to address this problem? Building significantly more housing – no. If we ever want to do something about housing affordability in NZ we need to have significantly greater government (central or local) involvement in land development – let’s start with areas around our train stations in Auckland.
The government wouldn’t need to keep ownership of the houses once built (in fact the last thing you’d want is for all these new intensified neighbourhoods to be subsidised housing). We’re OK with government stepping in to provide roads, hospitals, schools and so forth. Why not housing?
A massive inflation of stupidity. I blame Cullen.