What goes up
Written By:
- Date published:
5:21 am, July 7th, 2009 - 15 comments
Categories: economy, housing -
Tags: bubble, recession
There’s a lot of empty, over-optimistic talk around at the moment about ‘green-shoots’ in the economy. Supposedly, these are little early signs of recovery which mean that soon everything will be back to normal and we can go back to getting rich selling each other houses with money we borrowed from the Japanese. Things will get better in time but this green-shoots mantra is more of the economic utopianism that got us into this mess in the first place.
The favourite ‘green-shoot’ is stabilisation of house prices. Unsurprisingly, the chief cheerleaders of the housing green-shoots theory are the banks and the newspapers that gleefully any industry report that claims house prices are stabilising. It’s in their financial interest to talk up the housing market as much as possible. The banks make money by lending it to you so you can buy a house, plus they stand to lose big-time if house prices drop too much and they’re left trying to make back their losses on mortgagee sale . The newspapers depend on advertising for their existence, principally (now that jobs and classifieds are online) house ads.
They’re forgetting the fundamentals. Usually, the growth in value of the housing stock tracks reasonably close to GDP growth over the medium-term, little booms, little dead patches. Then, over five years (2002-2007) the value of NZ’s housing stock grew (on paper) by 100%, while the economy grew just 34%. The graph shows just how huge that bubble was
(I’ve gone back as far as the Stats data will let me, infoshare is cool btw)
The housing bubble has deflated at bit but there’s still a long way back down before we can say the over-valuation has unwound completely.
Effectively, the banks, the newspapers, and the other housing ‘green-shoots’ promoters are trying to re-inflate the bubble for their own short-term financial interests. But an economy cannot survive on bubblenomics forever. Eventually, reality prevails and what went up comes down again. We can’t avoid the fact that house prices still need to come down a long way, rapidly or slowly. Trying to forestall that will only makes things worse in the end.
Still, at least we’re not in the States – they went up higher, they’ve come down harder, and now government and the financiers are colluding to take huge risks with their economy’s future in an effort to breathe air back into the bubble. But that’s a topic for another post.
– Marty G
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- Greens look to fast-track submissions on harmful lawThe Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Govt should stop making people’s lives harder and build more homesThe National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Melissa Lee missing in action on mediaThe action Melissa Lee promised to protect democracy and the media sector is missing, Media and Communications spokesperson Willie Jackson said. ...3 weeks ago
- Landlord Government leaves little hope for rentersThe Government’s announcement on tenancy rules prove that it does not care about renters. ...3 weeks ago
- Opportunity to build a more sustainable economyGreen Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...3 weeks ago
- Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first reading
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...12 hours ago - Government to boost public EV charging networkEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...12 hours ago
- Residential Property Managers Bill to not progressThe coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...13 hours ago
- Independent review into disability support servicesThe Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...18 hours ago
- Justice Minister updates UN on law & order planJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...19 hours ago
- Trade Minister travels to Riyadh, OECD, and DubaiTrade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...1 day ago
- Education priorities focused on lifting achievementEducation Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...2 days ago
- NZTA App first step towards digital driver licenceThe new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...2 days ago
- Supporting whānau out of emergency housingWhānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...2 days ago
- Tribute to Dave O'SullivanRacing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...2 days ago
- Speech – Eid al-FitrAssalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...2 days ago
- Government saves access to medicinesAssociate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...2 days ago
- Pharmac Chair appointedHon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...3 days ago
- Taking action on Fetal Alcohol Spectrum DisorderHundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...4 days ago
- New sports complex opens in KaikoheRegional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...4 days ago
- Diplomacy needed more than everForeign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...4 days ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address, Buttes New British Cemetery BelgiumAmbassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...5 days ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – NZ National Service, Chunuk BairDistinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...5 days ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – Dawn Service, Gallipoli, TürkiyeMai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...6 days ago
- PM announces changes to portfoliosPaul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...7 days ago
- New catch limits for unique fishery areasRecreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...7 days ago
- Minister welcomes hydrogen milestoneEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...1 week ago
- Urgent changes to system through first RMA Amendment BillThe coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...1 week ago
- Overseas decommissioning models consideredOverseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...1 week ago
- Release of North Island Severe Weather Event InquiryEmergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...1 week ago
- Justice Minister to attend Human Rights CouncilJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...1 week ago
- Patterson reopens world’s largest wool scouring facilityAssociate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...1 week ago
- Speech to the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective Summit, 18 April 2024Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today. I am delighted ...1 week ago
- Government to introduce revised Three Strikes lawThe Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...1 week ago
- New diplomatic appointmentsForeign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...1 week ago
- Humanitarian support for Ethiopia and SomaliaNew Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...1 week ago
- Arts Minister congratulates Mataaho CollectiveMinister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...1 week ago
- Supporting better financial outcomes for KiwisThe Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...1 week ago
- Trade relationship with China remains strong“China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...1 week ago
- PM’s South East Asia mission does the businessPrime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...2 weeks ago
- $41m to support clean energy in South East AsiaNew Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...2 weeks ago
- Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder listThe Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...2 weeks ago
- Judicial appointments announcedAttorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...2 weeks ago
- Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in SingaporeEducation Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...2 weeks ago
- Value of stopbank project proven during cycloneA stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...2 weeks ago
- Pacific alliance condemns France over bid to ‘derail’ Kanaky decolonisation
Asia Pacific Report A Pacific civil society alliance has condemned French neocolonial policies in Kanaky New Caledonia, saying Paris is set on “maintaining the status quo” and denying the indigenous Kanak people their inalienable right to self-determination. The Pacific Regional Non-Governmental Organisations (PRNGOs) Alliance, representing some 15 groups, said in ...3 hours ago - New Koi Tū future report calls for overhaul of outdated NZ mediascape to restore trustKoi Tū New Zealand cannot sit back and see the collapse of its Fourth Estate, the director of Koi Tū: The Centre for Informed Futures, Sir Peter Gluckman, says in the foreword of a paper published today. The paper, “If not journalists, then who?” paints a picture of an industry ...4 hours ago
- Chalmers outlines a more ‘risk-based’ foreign investment policy and guardrails around Future Mad...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Foreign investment proposals with implications for Australia’s strategic or economic security will face tougher scrutiny, under a policy overhaul to be announced by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Wednesday. At the same time, the government ...4 hours ago
- National first introduced piece of Oranga Tamariki Act legislation it now seeks to repeal – Wi...
A Waitangi Tribunal inquiry report has warned government that a repeal of Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act could cause harm to children in care. ...8 hours ago - New Papers On Government Consumption Multipliers, Automatic Stabilisers And Economic Shocks
The Treasury has published today three new papers covering government consumption multipliers, automatic stabilisers and the impacts of global shocks on New Zealand’s economy. ...9 hours ago - Pacific state of Hawai’i first in US to pass dual Gaza ceasefire resolutionsAsia Pacific Report The Pacific state of Hawai’i’s House of Representatives has joined the state’s Senate in calling for a ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza, becoming the first state to pass such a resolution, reports Hawaii News Now. In March, the Senate passed a ceasefire resolution with a 24–1 ...10 hours ago
- Australia just made a billion-dollar bet on building the world’s first ‘useful’ quantum comput...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Ferrie, A/Prof, UTS Chancellor’s Postdoctoral Research and ARC DECRA Fellow, University of Technology Sydney PsiQuantum The Australian government has announced a pledge of approximately A$940 million (US$617 million) to PsiQuantum, a quantum computing start-up company based in Silicon Valley. Half ...11 hours ago
- What are heart rate zones, and how can you incorporate them into your exercise routine?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hunter Bennett, Lecturer in Exercise Science, University of South Australia Cameron Prins/Shutterstock If you spend a lot of time exploring fitness content online, you might have come across the concept of heart rate zones. Heart rate zone training has become more ...11 hours ago
- Ministry of Māori Development proposes to cut 38 positionsA recruitment pause put in place last year had reduced the scale of job losses necessary, says the secretary for Māori development. ...11 hours ago
- 'A man of the people': MPs pay tribute to Fa'anānā Efeso CollinsThe MPs reflected on the impact Fa'anānā had in Parliament, in his communities, and their long friendships with him. ...12 hours ago
- School phone ban for 16-year-olds 'very backward' – principalTwo secondary school principals are not convinced a phone ban is warranted and say it will be difficult to enforce. ...12 hours ago
- 27 years in captivity – free Marwan Barghouti, ‘Palestine’s Mandela’SPECIAL REPORT: By Eugene Doyle He is the most popular Palestinian leader alive today — and yet few people in the West even know his name. Absolutely no one in Gaza or the West Bank does not know him. That difference speaks volumes about who dominates the media narrative that ...13 hours ago
- Members of Parliament and Prime Minister to get pay riseThe Remuneration Authority has set an ordinary MPs' salary at $168,600 a year, and the PM's salary will rise to $484,200. ...13 hours ago
- Long before politicians called to ‘stop the boats’, First Nations people welcomed arrivals from ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Will McCallum, PhD Candidate – School of Communication and Creative Arts, Deakin University Earlier this year, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton accused Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of not supporting Operation Sovereign Borders – the military-led border security operation that has “closed Australia’s borders ...13 hours ago
- Does the AFL ban on skinfold testing avoid fat shaming – or has footy ‘gone soft’?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dominique Condo, Senior Lecturer in Sports Nutrition, Deakin University Microgen/Shutterstock There was, perhaps unsurprising, outcry from some sections of the sports media when it was revealed the AFL was removing body composition testing (including skinfold testing) in its junior (under the ...14 hours ago
- Supreme Court reinstates PNG MP after bribery ruling overturnedBy Melyne Baroi in Port Moresby A Papua New Guinea MP, Peter Isoaimo, who had been ousted by the National Court in an alleged bribery case, has been reinstated by the Supreme Court on appeal. A three-member Supreme Court bench found that the National Court had erred in finding that ...14 hours ago
- Problems for news media arose 'too fast' – former media minister Melissa LeeThe former media minister says she may have been "a little slow" in reacting to dramatic changes. ...15 hours ago
- ‘When the ship docks’: Publishing the poetry of the late Schaeffer Lemalu
Publisher Chris Holdaway reflects on the unique project of collecting the work of the late, terrific poet Schaeffer Lemalu. One of the nice things you can do as a truly independent publisher is to make the books that writers want to make, whatever they happen to be. That’s how I’ve ...15 hours ago - New minister announces review into disability support services funded by WhaikahaThe ministry has been under fire for not consulting with carers before changing entitlements to flexible funding support. ...15 hours ago
- Afghanistan Service Recognised In NZ Post’s Modern Veterans Stamp SeriesThose profiled in the stamp series served on overseas deployments from 1995 onwards, and all have been awarded theNew Zealand Operational Service Medal. ...15 hours ago
- On the politics of vengeanceLast night’s dismal poll result for the coalition government shows the limits of trying to govern as an opposition, argues Joel MacManus. There’s a quote from the American political activist Barbara Deming: “Vengeance is not the point; change is. But the trouble is that in most people’s minds, the thought ...15 hours ago
- Govt might take $1.1b hit to return GST on rates to councilsAnalysis by infometrics shows central government collected about that amount in GST from rates in 2022. ...15 hours ago
- ‘Abject failure’: why Australia’s scheme to curb foreign influence doesn’t work and can’t ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shireen Morris, Associate Professor and Director of the Radical Centre Reform Lab at Macquarie University Law School, Macquarie University Leonid Andronov/Shutterstock Foreign interference in Australian democracy poses a growing risk to our national sovereignty. It refers to coercive, corrupt or ...16 hours ago
- Defendant Pleads Guilty In Mortgage Fraud SchemeA defendant charged by the Serious Fraud Office (SFO) has pleaded guilty to four charges of obtaining by deception in relation to a mortgage fraud scheme. Sentencing has been scheduled for 14 August 2024. ...17 hours ago
- A handy primer for arts spokespeople who know nothing about New Zealand artWhat to say when pesky journalists ask gotcha questions like ‘can you name a single book you’ve ever read?’ and ‘did you read it, or did you just see the movie?’ This week, Act Party arts spokesperson Todd Stephenson foolishly agreed to an interview with Newsroom’s Steve Braunias regarding his ...17 hours ago
- School cellphone ban: What you need to knowExplainer - What will a ban on cellphones in schools achieve? Can students use them during lunch breaks? And what happens if you need to contact your child? ...17 hours ago
- We found pesticides in a third of Australian frogs we tested. Did these cause mass deaths?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jodi Rowley, Curator, Amphibian & Reptile Conservation Biology, Australian Museum, UNSW Sydney Jodi Rowley, CC BY-NC-ND In winter 2021, Australia’s frogs started dropping dead. People began posting images of dead frogs on social media. Unable to travel to investigate the deaths ...17 hours ago
- Share Of Home Transfers To Overseas Buyers Remains LowIn the year ended March 2024, 0.4 percent of home transfers were to people who didn’t hold New Zealand citizenship or a resident visa, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. ...17 hours ago
- 364,000 New Zealanders rely on an accomodation supplement – but these 3 flaws need fixingSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wasay Majid, Research Assistant , University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau New Zealand’s accommodation supplement scheme is facing scrutiny, with Social Development Minister Louise Upston recently saying “there is merit in considering whether the current settings are fair and sustainable long-term”. The ...18 hours ago
- Manasseh Sogavare bows out of prime ministerial race in Solomon IslandsBy Koroi Hawkins, RNZ Pacific editor The first prime ministerial candidate has been announced in Solomon Islands and it is not Manasseh Sogavare. The man of the hour is Jeremiah Manele, the MP for Hograno/Kia/Havulei constituency in Isabel Province, who served as minister of foreign affairs in the last government. ...18 hours ago
- If you love a dog, you must also love disposing of its shitProtesting the removal of bins by leaving piles of your dog’s shit for others to deal with doesn’t make you a hero – it’s precious and entitled behaviour. You haven’t truly lived until you’ve stood on the shoreline of Auckland’s Cheltenham beach, desperately trying to scoop increasingly liquid dog shit ...18 hours ago
- Analysis: What the shock poll tells us about the coalition governmentAnalysis - Christopher Luxon will be alert to the factors driving the dire polling, but won't be waving the white flag just yet, RNZ political editor Jo Moir writes. ...19 hours ago
- Moe mai rā: Tributes to Vincent O’SullivanWriter, teacher and academic Vincent O’Sullivan died on Sunday 28 April. Here we gather tributes from friends, colleagues, and students who remember his extraordinary contributions. I went down to the garage tonight. There was a bird shrieking out in the bush, in the dark, maybe a kākā. Miraculously, through the ...19 hours ago
- Call for radical reform of Pharmac's budget amid concern Kiwis not getting basic standard of ca...New Zealand offers no appeal for drug companies because it's so hard to make a sale, the Cancer Society says. ...19 hours ago
- The cost of being: A ‘semi-unemployed’ house-sitter with dwindling savingsAs part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, a burnt-out corporate escapee explains how she gets by ‘working as little as possible’. Want to be part of The Cost of Being? Fill out the questionnaire here. Gender: Female Age: 31 Ethnicity: Pākehā Role: Contractor in ...20 hours ago
- Think all chemicals are bad? From our food to your phone, modern life relies on themSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Schmidt, Professor of Chemistry, UNSW Sydney Albert Russ / Shutterstock The icebreaker of many a barbeque conversation is something like “what do you do for a crust?” “I teach chemistry at university,” is what we usually reply. Then silence. Our ...20 hours ago
- Tech-based sexual harassment at work is common, male-dominated and often intended to cause harmSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Asher Flynn, Associate Professor of Criminology, Monash University Shutterstock Sexual harassment is often considered to be a person-to-person act, but new research shows Australians are also experiencing and perpetrating workplace harassment in large numbers through technology. Our latest study shows one ...20 hours ago
- When supplies resume, should governments subsidise drugs like Ozempic for weight loss? We asked 5 ex...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fron Jackson-Webb, Deputy Editor and Senior Health Editor Rostislav_Sedlacek/Shutterstock Hundreds of thousands of people worldwide are taking drugs like Ozempic to lose weight. But what do we actually know about them? This month, The Conversation’s experts explore their rise, impact and ...20 hours ago
- Gaza Petition To Be Tabled In Parliament TodayA petition signed by more than 16,500 people, demanding the government take stronger action to halt the genocide of Palestinians by the State of Israel, is being presented to the House of Representatives today by Hon Phil Twyford. ...21 hours ago
- It’s time to strike an environmental grand bargain between businesses, governments and conservatio...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Burnett, Honorary Associate Professor, ANU College of Law, Australian National University jenmartin/Shutterstock April has been a bad month for the Australian environment. The Great Barrier Reef was hit, yet again, by intense coral bleaching. And Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek delayed ...21 hours ago
- Vietnam, brutalist architecture, fees and Gaza: how student protests shaped Australian universitiesSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hannah Lewi, Professor, Architecture, The University of Melbourne Anti-Vietnam War protests at the University of Sydney, 1969. Mitchell Library, State Library of New South Wales and Courtesy SEARCH Foundation, CC BY Australian university students are beginning to set up encampments on campus, ...21 hours ago
- Waitangi Tribunal report urges government stop changes to Oranga Tamariki ActThe report highlights concern over the approach the government is taking. ...21 hours ago
- Politics live: Shocking poll result for coalition, government pushes school phone banThe education minister says a "handful" of schools haven't brought in full bans and are being spoken to. ...21 hours ago
- On The Anniversary Of The Live Export Ban, SAFE Urges The Government To Stand FirmSAFE CEO Debra Ashton says while this milestone should be a cause for celebration, it is overshadowed by the looming threat of its reversal. ...21 hours ago
- Poll serves government an unwelcome entrée to the BudgetWinston Peters might not give a ‘rat’s derriere’ about last night’s poll, but it revealed the unusual absence of a honeymoon period and little payoff for the government’s action plan approach, writes Anna Rawhiti-Connell in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in ...21 hours ago
- NZ started discussing AUKUS ‘Tier 2’ involvement in 2021, newly released details revealSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marco de Jong, Lecturer, Law School, Auckland University of Technology Getty Images Details released by the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet under the Official Information Act reveal New Zealand officials have been considering involvement in AUKUS from the outset. ...21 hours ago
- Paul Goldsmith tells UN of commitment to reduce victims of violent crime, youth offendingThe government's treatment of Māori raised eyebrows, with countries saying New Zealand needed to do more to reduce health, education and justice inequities. ...22 hours ago
- Politics live: Shocking poll result for coalition, new education priorities announcedACT says the poll reflects current tough economic conditions while Nicola Willis say she's 'failing to see the drama'. ...22 hours ago
- NZ’s Human Rights Record ‘Tarnished’ At UN Rights ReviewThe age of criminal responsibility was one of numerous human rights issues raised during Aotearoa New Zealand’s UPR. Other key themes were racism and discrimination, the disproportionate representation of Māori in prison, and to uphold the UN Declaration ...23 hours ago
- Coalition parties drop in shock poll resultACT says the poll reflects current tough economic conditions while the Greens say communities are "fed up and angry". ...23 hours ago
- James Shaw exit interview: The 'greatest privilege' – and the 'horrible' m...In a sitdown interview ahead of his final day at Parliament this week, the former Green Party co-leader tells RNZ about his lowest point during 2017's rough election campaign. ...24 hours ago
- Reality Check Radio is still ‘off-air’. But was it ever really at risk?Is the fringe radio station really in a financial crisis, or is it just running a hyped-up donation drive? Fringe internet radio station Reality Check Radio was launched by the anti-vaccine mandates group Voices for Freedom in March 2023. For the next year, it undertook probably the most aggressive promotional ...24 hours ago
- How a High Court showdown between two Māori culture giants flared and faded in a dayAbove the Fold: On Monday, the biggest Māori screen production company faced down the biggest funder of Māori content at the High Court. It was an incredibly tense moment – then, just as quickly, it resolved. Duncan Greive breaks down a strange day in the screen sector. Yesterday morning, Māori ...24 hours ago
- Daily crossword, Tuesday 30 April
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Actually I pretty much agree with this.
Here is a rent or buy calculator from the NY Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html
The only thing I see going up real fast is unemployment.
As an owner of a fully paid for house, I built it myself to reduce costs, I welcome the stabilisation of the market becuase it reassures me that my efforts were not wasted.
What IS wrong with the system is the beaurocratic nighmare of consents inflicted on the person trying to get ahead on their own efforts by the previous Labour Government.
I have a pony, it’s a pink pony ‘cos that’s my favourite colour for ponies.
The trouble is the damn pony club won’t let me join ‘cos I like to veer wildly from the pony track and ruin the races.
Actually the pony club wont let you ride the way you like in your own paddock because they reckon they know how to ride best.
Oh and by the way I hope you have a pony registration? You cant just get a pony any time you want now can you.
whoooosh…
is that the sound of a burnt strawman?
They also ignore the Japan experience.
I think the Auckland house prices come down to a simple issue of supply and demand.
On the Supply side:
• With the collapse of the finance companies, property developers lost their source of funding. So there are very few new housing developments being completed.
• New home construction is well down, and section sales are very slow. As house prices have fallen, buying an existing home has become more cost effective than building a new home. Also construction loans have become more difficult to obtain as the Banks tightened their lending criteria.
On the Demand side:
• Kiwis are returning from overseas as they lose their jobs in the UK and elsewhere.
• Immigration to NZ will increase as our unemployment rate is lower than most other countries. New immigrants tend to gravitate to the big cities like Auckland where the jobs are.
• As job losses mount in small NZ towns e.g. Wellsford then people tend to head to the big cities in search of work.
So Demand is increasing as Supply is decreasing, which points to house prices creeping up rather than falling.
The other critical factor affecting house sales is the availability of Bank finance. This practically dried up late last year as the Banks recoiled from the Credit Crunch shock. Most lenders reduced lending to 80% and this instantly wiped out a huge number of potential buyers. However, at the moment there are currently 5 first mortgage lenders providing finance of between 85% to 95%. On top of that some finance companies who have got their deposit guarantees in place are back in the market providing second mortgages of up to 15% behind a Bank first mortgage of 80%.
So I don’t subscribe to the theory that Auckland house prices will keep falling.
And all of those people you listed can’t afford the inflated prices. Puts a bit of a damper on things wouldn’t you say?
No Draco. If they can’t buy a house, they will still rent one. If the population of Auckland increases faster than the housing supply, house prices can only go one way.
Now that other investment returns are poor, investment property is back in vogue.
David Farrar says:
“Incresase suburban sprawl to reduce house prices – market good, local govt regs bad.”
Repeat ad-nauseam for Nact’s answer to this post…
As I have explained on many occasions to people like Owen McShane (he doesn’t argue with me about it anymore so I guess it got through) is that what matter is housing supply, not land supply.
What matters is that so little intensification has been possible in Auckland over the last decade because councils have been so utterly useless at rezoning land for intensification. Just have a look around the Auckland City Council District Plan and see how much “Residential 8” zone you can find. Barely any. This was meant to be the main tool in providing for intensification in Auckland City, but the council got scared off by a few Panmure residents and has basically abandoned the project.
Planning rules are also designed around encouraging sprawl and not intensification – basically as soon as you want to put more than 4 units on a site (no matter how bit the site is) you get chucked into the deep end of an enormously long and complex consenting process. While ensuring good urban design outcomes via a consenting process is essential – so much more could be done to streamline this process and make it easier for developers to undertake intensification.
The last, and potentially most important factor in rising house prices has been the withdrawal from the public provision of housing – both from central government and local government. Provision of housing is a basic human need, and when not enough housing is provided what is left becomes more scarce and less affordable. So what’s the government doing to address this problem? Building significantly more housing – no. If we ever want to do something about housing affordability in NZ we need to have significantly greater government (central or local) involvement in land development – let’s start with areas around our train stations in Auckland.
The government wouldn’t need to keep ownership of the houses once built (in fact the last thing you’d want is for all these new intensified neighbourhoods to be subsidised housing). We’re OK with government stepping in to provide roads, hospitals, schools and so forth. Why not housing?
A massive inflation of stupidity. I blame Cullen.