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$1.80 petrol = recession

Written By: - Date published: 8:42 am, March 14th, 2011 - 53 comments
Categories: Economy, energy - Tags: , ,

So, the other day I was arguing something around $100 a barrel oil equals a global recession. I wanted to get more precise: is there a certain price of petrol in New Zealand, above which the economy goes into recession? It turns out there is, and we’re well above it. The political implication: the best way to promote growth is decrease our oil dependence.

I took the MED’s petrol data and got the average price for 91 in each quarter since they started publishing the numbers in 2004, inflation-adjusted, and compared it to the GDP growth rate. The link was strongest when I lagged the petrol price by a quarter, which makes sense because it takes time for changes in petrol price to change consumer behaviour and other prices.

The key price appears to be between $1.75 a litre and $1.80 a litre.

As you can see, the prices we’ve experienced recently suggest that there will be recession in the December through to June quarters, even without the Christchurch Earthquakes and the fallout from the Sendai Earthquake (which will be significant). And recession will continue until (if) the petrol price gets down to a viable price.

This is a scatter graph, each dot represents a quarter giving the growth rate and lagged petrol price.

The formula for the trend line crosses zero at $1.77. Of the 8 quarters in which petrol has averaged over $1.77, 5 were followed by a quarter of recession and the other 3 were followed quarters with 0.1% growth. Of the 17 quarters where petrol was below $1.77, the economy shrank once in the following quarter, was flat once, and grew 15 times. The correlation is -0.71, which is strong.

Although there’s not a lot of talk about this in the msm, I think it’s pretty obvious that the price of petrol can induce recessions at what, now, seems like quite a low level. The average household consumes 35 litres of petrol and a couple of diesel every week. That means a 10 cent a litre rise sucks $200 per year out of the average household budget and $300 million out of the total budget of households. That means $300 million less consumer demand for other things, meaning less economic activity. $300 million is 0.15% of GDP, so that’s a guide to the direct hit to the economy from every 10 cent petrol rise without even counting the extra cost of freight transport, which probably doubles the effect since as much imported oil is used for diesel as petrol. It doesn’t take too much to work out that when you keep taking 0.15-0.3% off GDP with every 10 cent rise you reach a point that outweighs ‘normal’ growth.

Now, a petrol price of $1.77 equates to an oil price of about USD$80 a barrel. Anyone expecting oil to go down below $80 and stay there in the future? Nah, me neither.

A pro-growth political party should pay attention to this. They can’t influence petrol prices (apart from unsustainably cutting tax every time they rise, and that just necessitates rising tax elsewhere) but they can help households and freight companies consume less of it, which means the economic damage of a price rise is decreased.

A pro-growth party in the age of peak oil should concentrating their efforts on providing alternatives to oil and decreasing dependency on oil. And there’s an obvious suite of policies for that: no more motorways, more public transport, rail and coastal shipping to replace freight, ending sprawl and creating walkable communities.

Huh. Somewhat ironic that ACT, the most growth opposed party, is resorting to race-baiting while that the Greens have the most pro-growth economic policy.

53 comments on “$1.80 petrol = recession ”

  1. Bunji 1

    And the government’s plan? From Stuff this morning:
    Doubt stalls biofuel growth

    Biofuel producers say millions of dollars worth of investment is at risk because of uncertainty over whether the government will continue a subsidy programme beyond next year.

    and the result of that and similar policies:
    Economy ‘probably back in recession’

    • ZeeBop 1.1

      Biofuels just keep the lifestyle alive a bit longer, when it should be helped to die.
      Government should not be building more roads, it should be buying up useless
      unwanted noisy poorly maintained old road vehicles and recycling them for scrap.
      This is what a sustainable resilient government would look like, one that promotes
      the recycling and entrenches the new energy efficient economy with relevant policies.
      Another question can you sue the local school if their parents turn up in horrendously
      noisy cars every morning? Its like a rally just before 9am every morning now.

      • Bored 1.1.1

        When I used to cycle to school back in the Jurassic I was in no danger of being flattened by “mummy” dropping off the kids at school in a 4WD.

        • Shane Gallagher 1.1.1.1

          You are right – the most dangerous drivers around schools are parents driving SUVs at speed, double parking and generally putting everyone else’s child in danger so they don’t have to get out of their cars.

          With zoning in towns most people live well within walking distance of school and that is how kids should be getting there. At my son’s primary school they are not allowed to cycle or scoot to school as the roads are too dangerous. The sad thing is that the school is right.

          • Rosy 1.1.1.1.1

            Could ease in gently with a 500m parking-free zone and large pedestrian/cycle zones around peimary schools.

            • Lanthanide 1.1.1.1.1.1

              You’d never get a parking-free zone around a school, there’s be massive outcry from the parents. That, and parking isn’t so much the problem it’s the dropping off/picking up where cars are stopped for 2-3 minutes at the most.

  2. Bored 2

    Marty, nice article, nothing I disagree with in terms of interpretation. I am going to sound llike a tired record BUT “growth” is at the core of the problem. In reality if the economy is linked to energy prices then we will have to cope with permanent decline. In which case we should best work out a new way of measuring economic activity and outcomes.

    • ZeeBop 2.1

      Growth isn’t the problem, growth is change, which is the solution. What we need is more growth not less, a different kind of growth, inward growth, organic growth, less is more growth, concentrated growth, not sprawl growth, not lavish growth, not out growths, not more of the same growth we cannot afford.

      • Bored 2.1.1

        Z, you may be right, after all anything you do that produces an outcome could be described as growth. Where it gets interesting is that measuring the aggregate of all of these actions might indicate a decline using current measures. The reason I say this is that “cheap” energy has been a major input in most outputs that have been measured in aggregate as growth. Take away “cheap” energy and the equation changes. Which means that how we measure the “transformative growths” you mention becomes a key issue.

      • Shane Gallagher 2.1.2

        Z – I think you may be confusing “growth” with “development”. Our economy is caught in a boom/bust cycle because is relies totally on growth to remain stable. The second the economy starts to slow down the very things that drive growth then drive collapse (capital flow, efficiency and employment).

        So if we actually want to move to something equitable then we need to move to a steady state economy or zero-growth economy. This doesn’t mean it is stagnant – it is just that we design an economy that is sustainable and doesn’t crucially rely on growth to remain stable. That zero growth economy can develop all it likes as long as it is sustainable and doesn’t affect the ability of the economy to give everyone the necessities of life (secure housing, a job, education, health care etc… ). It is a new concept to be sure – but we cannot grow much more simply because we are running out of everything – land, clean water, energy supplies… To think that we can grow forever is simple insanity.

        • Lanthanide 2.1.2.1

          Everyone keeps saying “zero-growth, sustainable economy” but I’ve never seen what that actually means in practical reality. Nor anyone seriously proposing a model that would work.

          It’s a bit like the 40% CO2 reduction by 2020 campaign. They had stickers and slogans, but I bet a lot of people inside the campaign, let alone people they sucked into it, actually knew the implications of what they were suggesting. Which would be along the lines of ‘petrol priced at $4/l to reduce consumption’ amongst other things.

          • Bored 2.1.2.1.1

            LAN, what it means is the economics of true cost and sustainability. It means that the environmental costs are quantifiable, as are all externalities, and consequently are a recognised chargeable economic cost. It means that finite resources are recognised and managed around. It means that resources that have to be managed, such as fish stocks are managed sustainably. It means recognising the limits of growth and being able to stop over reach. It means a huge challenge because we have never done it before and because we now have to.

            I dont think we will ever get rid of the profit motive, or the individual desire to have more. That seems to be an inate human characteristic. The question becomes how do we prevent our own excesses, or direct them for the common good?

            • Lanthanide 2.1.2.1.1.1

              Ok, that makes more sense. But I think you’re striving for an unachievable goal. Our stock markets do not reach their theoretical efficiency because the are information deficits in the market. That’s with something that humans are completely in control of, and we still can’t manage it. To expect we could price in the costs for damaging the environment (when it is so complex – just look at climate change) is really unbelievable. I think if we did truly cost in the price of everything, we’d end up with no economy at all because almost anything we do harms the environment in some way or another.

              Probably the most sustainable society I can think of off the top of my head would be the Native Americans. But look that their population density compared to modern society, as well as their level of development and pure ‘roughing it’ that they lived with.

              • lprent

                I don’t think that they were paricularly sustainable either. The levels of mass extinctions went up with the population there. There is a lot of argument about how the megafauna there diminished so rapidly after the arrival of humans.

                • ZeeBop

                  Species that understand entropy are better fitted. If your species just mixes all your plastics and glass, etc, into a landfill all you get is some out gasing that you can burn off. Species that survive for the long haul keep low entropy lifestyles. You could say they are thrifty, you may get a run of high entropic exuburance from a low entropy source off fuel that has been baking in the crust for a couple of million years but it runs out. In fact species leave their wasting of resources to mating displays, maxing out in a lavish sports car on the open road should be done a couple of times in a life time not every weekend. The human race is deformed, it spends resource in inane repetitive bouts of mating displays.

                  • M

                    ‘In fact species leave their wasting of resources to mating displays, maxing out in a lavish sports car on the open road should be done a couple of times in a life time not every weekend. The human race is deformed, it spends resource in inane repetitive bouts of mating displays.’

                    Absolutely on the nail ZB.

                    Maybe I’m weird amongst my female cohorts but the thought of some guy trying to impress me with a car is a massive turn-off because my thought patterns automatically go to the resource waste and environmental damage. On the other hand if he rides a bike, walks or gets the bus, yeah, it does it for me.

              • Bored

                Lan, it might come down to things like having to balance a houses useful life span and utility with the ability and timespan to grow the materials…zero ecological balance plus labour.

                Your expectations about no economy if we priced in the cost of damaging the environment is a dilemna. We cant have an economy as we know it today without wrecking the environment: ergo to have the economy we have today we must wreck the environment: end result no environment, no economy. You better believe it.

        • Pete 2.1.2.2

          – but we cannot grow much more simply because we are running out of everything – land, clean water, energy supplies… To think that we can grow forever is simple insanity.

          Something we don’t seem to be running out of is insanity. Don’t you know, before there is nothing left we will have invented something else to run out of.

          • Afewknowthetruth 2.1.2.2.1

            The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has limits. -Einstein

      • Draco T Bastard 2.1.3

        Nope, as much as economists have tried to explain that their version of the word growth is different from everybody else’s it’s still whether the GDP increased or not that is the measure. A recession is defined by two consecutive quarters with flat or negative GDP growth. What we need is development which comes from research. Make no mistake – the present system is all about financial growth, making rich people richer and not development which makes a community better.

        • Bored 2.1.3.1

          Dont you just love economist lingo.

          Depression = recession
          Big depression = double dip recession
          Equilibrium = flat growth
          Contraction = negative growth
          Watering down of money = financial growth

  3. Sanctuary 3

    Bill English believes the market fairies will save us –

    http://www.bettertransport.org.nz/2011/03/government-has-no-plan-for-high-oil-prices/

    Gareth Hughes: Will the Minister finally support an inquiry into how New Zealand can best protect its economy from high oil prices?

    Hon BILL ENGLISH: Probably not. When we talk about strategies to deal with high oil prices, we see that the fact is that the best strategy is for people to see the price signals and change their behaviour accordingly…

    This is not a policy or a strategy. It is gross and utterly irresponsible wishful thinking from a dogmatic idiot. Such comments might be unsurprising at the ACT party conference, but from the deputy prime minister they represent a total dereliction of duty.

    • Bored 3.1

      Such comments might be unsurprising at the ACT party conference…the natural home of Boag and Kerr and a whole bunch of “business” types advocating the free market. Follow the money, who funds the National Party? English may be the piper but who is paying for the tune?

      • ChrisH 3.1.1

        I agree. Somebody owes somebody something, or else they wouldn’t have handed Rodney Auckland on a plate to trash.

  4. Michael 4

    GDP is inflation adjusted, petrol prices are not. Perhaps you would get a more valid graph by inflation adjusting petrol prices, but I suspect the resulting graph would have a slightly lower correlation.

    • Marty G 4.1

      As you should have read in the post, I did inflation-adjust the petrol prices.

      So there goes that weak attempt at rebuttal. Pretty strong correlation, eh?

      • Shane Gallagher 4.1.1

        Excellent analysis btw Marty!

        • Uroskin 4.1.1.1

          So if the Government reduced the excise on petrol so the price never rises above $1.75 we’re sweet?

          Captcha: move

          • Blighty 4.1.1.1.1

            the govt would just have to raise the money from households some other way, so the drain on consumer demand would be the same.

            • Colonial Viper 4.1.1.1.1.1

              Not if the households being taxed most were the top 5% in terms of incomes/assets: effect on consumer demand would be negligible. Maybe the V6 Beemer would get sold instead of the V8, not a biggie.

  5. Afewknowthetruth 5

    The price of fuel is very liekly to drop in the short term; the chaos in Japan will almost certainly put fear back into ‘the markets’ and is very likely to cause international oil prices to plummet.

    All that will do is prolong the delusion that the oil-based economy has a future, of course.

    Marty G does some very worthwile analysis but he keeps messing up his articles with nonsense like this: ‘providing alternatives to oil ‘.

    And the constant banter about GDP is utterly tiresome. GDP is at the heart of our problems. If we actually want progress we need to use GPI, not GDP..

    I don’t know how many times it has to be said, ten times, a hundred times, a thousand times, ten thousand times: THERE ARE NO ALTERNATIVES TO OIL

    Nothing on this planet is available anything like the quantity (80+ million barrels a day) of oil, has anything approaching the EROEI of oil (currently around 10:1 and falling), or has the energy density of oil. No substance or system of production of anything stacks up as a replacement for oil. This has been demonstrated over and over again by people like Pimmnetel and Fridley …. and people take absolutely no notice.

    The fact is we are rapidly approaching the crash and burn stage (2012-2015) of this global industrial civilisation and 99% of the populace remain oblivious.

    Pretty scary really.

    • Bored 5.1

      AFKTT. Its beat your head against a brick wall, been saying this for years and you wont get thanked. There are some big troubles out there. My prediction is that Saudi Quattros (dromedaries) will again be in vogue in Riyaz within the next 20 years, but the sesame seeds will be in short supply becuse it will be to hot to grow them.

      The only thing we can really do is build our alternative skills and networks. NZ could in effect be a safe port in a storm, I would not hang my hat on the ability of the institutions of the status quo to moor us there.

      • Afewknowthetruth 5.1.1

        Bored.

        I know. Telling the truth is just a hobby now. People do not want to know the truth: they prefer the delusions that correspond with the narrative of empire and consumption of their own support life systems -well in the short term they do. Once it all turns to custard they will be complaining bitterly that nobody warned them it was all unsustainable and about to collapse.

        Regarding change to a more sane way of living, it just will not happen voluntarily. All the systems -central government, local government, policial parties, laws, courts, police, schools, technical instiutions, mainstream media, the AA, sports clubs etc. are geared to protecting and promoting the status quo of industrial empire via ignorance, misinfomration or outright deceit. That is why ‘crash and burn’ looks to be inevitable, I’m afraid.

        People will change their lifestyles because they won’t have the money to buy fuel or groceries, not because they want to change.

        By the way I have already been presented with a ‘Brick Wall Award’.

        • Bored 5.1.1.1

          I had a good laugh at Victorian Farm on TV a month or so ago…the men had a need to transport something. They went to the stables, walked past the tractor (cart horse), rejecting it as too big for the job, and hitched up the quad bike (donkey)….My point is that the solutions to most requirements are well known and often may not require complex industrial society and technology. As you say the real issue is the institutions that cannot envisage things differently or reach backward for alternatives.

          Whats a Brick Wall Award? Who kindly donated it?

          PS Please accept the award for clear sightedness: A Cassandra (bit like a lead plated Oscar).

          • Afewknowthetruth 5.1.1.1.1

            BWA ‘It is better ti bang yiur head against a brick wall than not bang yoiur head against a brick wall’. I was given it for for writng Ten Things Everyone Ought To Know. Presented by a group of aware people in Wellington.

            Yes, Cassandra’s god-given gift was foresight. And her god-given curse was not to be believed.

        • RedLogix 5.1.1.2

          Everytime I see the wankers on Top Gear doing absurd power slides in grossly over-powered cars, literally burning up fuel and rubber at a rate of dollars per second… I cannot but help think petrol is still too cheap.

          • Bored 5.1.1.2.1

            Red, given half a chance I would do it too, looks like fun. Therein lies the problem, its so hard to resist and not do the things we know we should not do, but love to do anyway.

          • M 5.1.1.2.2

            ‘Fraid Top Gear is the ultimate dick compensator show presented by a bunch of buffoons having their last gasp of machismo before the jaws of death come to claim them.

  6. nadis 6

    I’ve seen some investment bank research which suggests that globally, when oil as a share of global GDP hits 5.5% that triggers an impact on growth. At the moment 5.5% equates to $120 a barrel on their metrics. So on a brent = 1/3, wti = 2/3 split oil right now is about $102 but I’d guess oil price should be measured as a quarterly or longer average rather than a point estimate.

    I would guesstimate that NZ has a higher sensitivity to oil prices than say the US as our labour and capital productivity is so much lower.

  7. This 27 page booklet http://oilcrash.com/articles/wilson08.htm is currently being posted to every politician, most mayors of ‘large’ towns, most heads of govt departments, and most ‘department’ heads at Vic Uni.
    I’m sure most copies will end up in the bin.

    • RedLogix 7.1

      Well written and to the point Robert. I think any thoughtful person would know that the world as we know it must come to an end.

      Look on the bright side, maybe most copies will get recycled.

      • Robert Atack 7.1.1

        NB thanks to Derek and his efforts, he is doing all the work on this one.

      • The Baron 7.1.2

        Sorry guys, I reached the completely opposite conclusion. This will be thrown out because it takes 27 pages, with no evidence apart from the author’s passionate prose, to make points that could be made far better.
        Your challenge is the same as that that every activist faces – how to get these people pay attention and take or change their actions.
        Sending a rambly 27 page personal treatise, then lambasting them for not reading it, is not likely to be a winning strategy.

        • Draco T Bastard 7.1.2.1

          So I take it that you completely missed the 2 or 3 pages of references at the bottom?

          Th only reason you reached the “completely opposite conclusion” is because you just don’t want to believe the reality.

        • RedLogix 7.1.2.2

          This will be thrown out because it takes 27 pages, with no evidence apart from the author’s passionate prose, to make points that could be made far better.

          If you had actually read the document, you would have known that it was full of quotes from numerous luminaries… used directly as evidence.

          • Bored 7.1.2.2.1

            I think the Baron may be right that the document will be thrown out: not for the reason he says but for the reasons that his type of thinking and persona represent. None so blind as those who dont want to see, none so deaf as those who dont want to hear.

  8. Steve Withers 8

    I had a discussion about Peak Oil with Tau Henare via Twitter. It went on across a couple of weeks. At first he hadn’t really heard of it at all (this is a month or so ago)….and after a couple of weeks he finished by likening peak oil to alien invasion and consigned it to the tin hat brigade.

    I think that sums up the attitude of the Multi-National Party at this point to the long term implications of oil becoming more expensive. They so far see no problem, their heads apparently being firmly inserted into the topsoil as they are on so many issues. At the very least, they appear to assume the market will sort it out by rewarding and encouraging the development of various technologies that will allow life as we know it to continue more or less without changing. They are, in effect, relying on a faith system to deliver the solution to all the problems…and they don’t pick winners.

    This is clearly not a prudent party with an eye to risk. Religion, market-based or otherwise, is no substitute for prudent planning and preparation.

    Again, we see this Multi-National party government is reckless with our resources.

    • Pete 8.1

      Concerns about running out of finite resources and polluting the planet haven’t just happened in the last couple of years. Has any government anywhere in the world ever addressed this properly yet? Can it be addressed soon enough or by enough to make any difference? Or is it a non-stop juggernaut? Reminds me of some Jethro…

      He hears the silence howling —
      Catches angels as they fall.
      And the all-time winner
      Has got him by the balls.
      He picks up Gideon’s Bible —
      Open at page one —
      God stole the handle and
      The train won’t stop going —
      No way to slow down.

  9. Steve Withers 9

    The challenge, as always, is to make the blind see and the deaf hear. There are keys to unlock these access ports to their minds…..we just have to work out what they are. Being conservatives, it tends be WHO says something rather than the validity of what is being said. That is why people are that way. They lack the ability or the confidence to direct their own minds to a problem…and instead rely on “authorities”. At the oppositie end of the scale is the sort people who join the Greens…who define themselves by independently exercising their curiosity and drawing their own conclusions about what they find. IMHO, this is why the Greens are so fiercely democratic internally while the National Party has very little in the way of ACTUAL internal democracy.

    • Bored 9.1

      Interesting observation on conservatives relying upon who said it…thought about people I know and it rings so true. I my case these are the ones who want the gossip and scandal but have no idea about the issues. The TV reporter wearing shorts actually knows what he is talking about because he is a TV reporter. It must be true.

      Wonder if the corollary of Greens reacting with independent curiosity will be conservatives running for an authority figure to save them (regardless of whether that person is rational / knows anything etc)?

  10. exit lane 10

    fits with what history tells us … Ten of the last 11 recessions were preceded by oil price hikes.
    http://reason.com/archives/2011/03/08/oil-price-shocks-and-the-reces

    and the effect of higher oil prices on NZ GDP and household spending is to take billions from our economy and wallets
    http://oilshockhorrorprobe.blogspot.com/2011/03/earthquake-nz5-billion-oil-quake-more.html

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    Not Seeing The Problem: They say there are none so blind as those who will not see. And, right now, Kāinga Ora is studiously not looking. It is clear to everyone that the Minister responsible, Poto Williams, has (like so many of her colleagues) been entirely captured by her officials. ...
    3 days ago
  • Is the mob coming for Charles Darwin?
    Richard Dawkins recently noted the giants of the past are being sanctimoniously judged by nonentities of the present whose only qualification is still being alive to do so. How will the future judge our own time when we are not around? Peter Franklin from Unherd examines whether the woke can ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    3 days ago
  • Blowing a Hole in Your Own Wall: Idiotic Tampering with MIQ
    Managed Isolation/Quarantine has been a fact of life for New Zealand for eighteen months. It’s not popular – there are only so many spaces available at any given time, and the process is famously opaque – but it is the key to saving New Zealand from rampant Coronavirus. That, ...
    3 days ago
  • Now Labour wants secret trials
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • The end of a toxic leader
    If there's one thing that Judith Collins is usually good at, it's using scandalous information about other people to her advantage. Not above undermining her own political party, Collins has been known to even leak against her own fellow MPs, particularly those who posed a threat to her as the ...
    4 days ago
  • A transformative government in Germany
    Back in September Germans went to the polls, and handed the politicians a tough job, with no easy majorities for anyone. The Social Democrats, Free Democrats, and Greens agreed to work together in a "traffic light" coalition, but given their political differences (its basicly ACT/Greens/Labour), expectations for real change were ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Political Harakiri
    The National party must always have known that they were taking a risk when they elected Judith Collins as leader. There were, after all, good reasons why they repeatedly declined to accept her candidature when she offered herself – as she frequently did. She was always an inappropriate person to ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    4 days ago
  • Thanksgiving advice, 2021: How to deal with climate change-denying Uncle Pete
    This is a re-post from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists by Richard Somerville “Birds of a feather flock together,” so I am sure that nearly all of those reading this article accept the main findings of climate science. Yet many people don’t. Instead, they believe a variety of climate ...
    4 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the demotion of Simon Bridges
    So Simon Bridges has been bounced from the front bench and stripped of his shadow portfolio responsibilities for the crudely “inappropriate” comments that he allegedly made to a female colleague, Jacqui Dean – and personally apologised for – about five years ago. After years of mocking Labour for its supposed ...
    4 days ago
  • NZ Politics Daily: 25 November 2021
    Today’s NZPD testimonial from Dr Rosemary Wette, Associate Professor, Applied Linguistics, University of Auckland: “I’ve been browsing regularly through NZ Politics Daily for several months now. It gives me access to a range of views on current issues (helpfully organised by topic) that I wouldn’t otherwise have time to look up, or ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago
  • The bizarre case of the Royal Society investigating academics defending science
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    RedlineBy Admin
    4 days ago
  • Ian Powell: Unionism and nursing in New Zealand
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    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago
  • Bryce Edwards: Today’s constitutional disgrace in Parliament
    This Government has a problem with urgency. Critics from both left and right have long complained about their lack of urgency on issues such as climate change, housing, and inequality. Likewise, in terms of the Covid response, there’s been a chorus of criticism that Labour has been complacent and sluggish ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago
  • Vaping needs much tighter regulation as we approach Smokefree Aotearoa 2025: Two new studies
    Nick Wilson, Janet Hoek, Jennifer Summers, Driss Ait Ouakrim, Andrew Waa, Richard Edwards, Tony Blakely* Two recent studies provide new insights into the impact vaping may have on public health. The first estimates that use of modern vaping devices could be around a third as harmful to health as smoking. ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    5 days ago
  • Strange Defeat: A Guest Post By Dr. Chris Harris.
    They Did Things Differently Then: And we might still be doing things differently, if the world these "Country Lads" were fighting for, and which endured for nearly 30 years after World War II, had not been supplanted by the world we inhabit now. In spite of its reality, New Zealand's ...
    5 days ago
  • More than 147km – the transformative potential of the Wellington bike network plan
    Feature image by Luke Pilkinton-Ching, University of Otago Wellington   Caroline Shaw, Anja Mizdrak, Ryan Gage* Wellington City Council is currently consulting on a cycle network for Wellington. This is a big deal. WCC are proposing a 147km cycle network around the city, the vast majority of which is new. ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    5 days ago
  • NZ Politics Daily: 24 November 2021
    Today’s NZPD testimonial from Liz Brown, Senior communications advisor, Association of Salaried Medical Specialists: “The NZ Politics Daily is a fabulous resource providing a comprehensive one stop shop on what’s making news and how stories are being covered. I look forward to seeing it pop into my inbox every morning.” Anyone can sign ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: Taking us for a ride
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: An industry in denial
    Over the past few years it has become clear that coal has no future in Aotearoa. Rising carbon prices, a ban on new boilers and a legislated phase-out for existing infrastructure are going to drive it out of the market. To reinforce this, the government signed up for an anti-coal ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • The “most open and transparent government ever” again
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on farmers playing the victim, plus Chile’s right turn
    Among the farming lobby groups, the good cop/bad cop routine has been working a treat. It suits Federated Farmers to keep daylight between itself and the Groundswell movement. Month in, year out the Federation continues to engage with the government over the very same water degradation/climate change regulations that Groundswell ...
    6 days ago
  • Important People
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    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    6 days ago
  • Parliament, the Courts and the end of three strikes (for now)
    Last week, Parliament embarked on the process of repealing the so-called “three strikes” provisions in the Sentencing Act 2002. Given that Labour, the Greens and Te Paati Māori all supported this repeal Bill at first reading (and that NZ First no longer is in government to block the move), three strikes’ eventual legislative demise seems ...
    PunditBy Andrew Geddis
    6 days ago
  • NZ Politics Daily: 23 November 2021
    Today’s NZPD testimonial from Martyn Bradbury, Editor, The Daily Blog “’NZ Politics Daily’ is one of the most important news and political resources run in New Zealand. The expert collation of opinion and news makes it an invaluable day to day resource as well as an incredible treasure for researchers in the future. ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    6 days ago
  • New Zealand’s Emission Reduction Plan
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    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    6 days ago
  • Dissing The Farmers.
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    6 days ago
  • How will carbon pricing impact inflation?
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    6 days ago
  • (Lack of) Public Service Announcement: The National Library of New Zealand, Internet Archive, and Al...
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    6 days ago
  • Game over for the HRPP
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Chinese influence and American hate diffusion.
    Over the last decade concerns have been raised about Chinese “influence operations” in NZ and elsewhere. Run by CCP-controlled “United Front” organisations, influence operations are designed to promote PRC interests and pro-PRC views within the economic and political elites of the targeted country as well as Chinese diaspora communities. The ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago
  • The Real Interests Of The Country.
    Off Message: Into the extremely fraught relationship between Town and Country, the Groundswell organisers have blundered like an Aberdeen-Angus steer in an organic vege-shop. Unreasonably proud of their rural economic virtues, and dangerously forthright in their enumeration of the cities’ political vices, these Kiwi equivalents of America’s “good ole boys” ...
    7 days ago
  • NZ Politics Daily: 22 November 2021
    Today’s NZPD testimonial from Minna Reid, Law student, Victoria University of Wellington “As a Uni student, staying up to date with current affairs is always important. The Daily Politics & Democracy Project by Bryce Edwards is of great service for this. It offers varying news sources I would not have found myself ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    7 days ago
  • Free speech is a people’s frank confession to itself
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    RedlineBy Admin
    7 days ago
  • 2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #47
    Listing of articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, November 14, 2021 through Sat, November 20, 2021 The following articles sparked above average interest during the week: Do Androids Dream Of Electric Sheeple? A.I. Maps 20 Years of Climate Conspiracies, COP Negotiators Demand Nations ...
    1 week ago
  • The F Words, by Barbara Gregorich
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    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • The Scourge of the Aimless Kick
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    1 week ago
  • Delta Rocks Gibraltar: Lessons to be learned from Covid-19’s global resurgence.
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    1 week ago
  • I’ll take the masks and vaccines, thank you
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    1 week ago
  • Hell To Pay: The alarming similarities between the Anti-Vaccination Movement and the creators of the...
    Never Let Go: If the violent prejudices of the Jim Crow South, echoing through contemporary struggles, teach us anything, it is that the defence of rationality, science and progressivism must never be allowed to falter. Those pre-modern night-riders, filled with unrelenting hate, are still out there. If the troops of ...
    1 week ago
  • A Peak Out of Auckland? + Other Covid Musings
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    1 week ago
  • Sing Song about Hard Times
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    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • A good problem to have
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the politics of anger, plus a music playlist
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    1 week ago
  • No, vaccinated people are not ‘just as infectious’ as unvaccinated people if they get COVID
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    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Electric cars alone won’t save the planet. We’ll need to design cities so people can walk and cy...
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    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Worn down by bad news? You’re not alone…
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    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Alexander Gillespie, University of Waikato   Last week’s COVID protest outside parliament served as a warning that New Zealand is not immune to the kinds of anger seen overseas. As Labour Party whip Kieran McAnulty put it, “I think everyone needs to be aware that things are starting to escalate.” ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • NZ Politics Daily: 19 November 2021
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    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    1 week ago
  • Buying Back The Whenua.
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    1 week ago
  • nuremberg, and history
      There’s a lot been said recently about the Nuremberg code. So what is it, and why is it popping up now? As described in this excellent NEJM article, the Code was developed over 80 years ago in August 1947, by judges involved in the “Doctors Trial” at Nuremberg. There were ...
    SciBlogsBy Alison Campbell
    1 week ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #46, 2021
    Housekeeping: New content New Research is primarily focused on reports published in "the academic literature." Thanks to a diversity of publishers, journals, editors, reviewers, researchers and institutional affiliations, such publications are statistically highly successful at approximating and reflecting our best dispassionate understanding of research topics. Any given personal agenda not ...
    1 week ago
  • Another OIA horror-story
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Bribing for convictions
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • How does Labour expect to get away with this?
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    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • The Chronicles of Kregsmal and Krunch: Volume III
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    2 weeks ago
  • The Good Ship Jacinda Ardern
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    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate challenges mount for California agriculture
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    2 weeks ago
  • NZ Politics Daily: 18 November 2021
    Today’s NZPD testimonial from Kara Tait, External communications manager, Kiwibank “The morning email from Bryce at the Democracy Project is must-read for communication professionals. It provides a comprehensive overview of the issues covered by New Zealand media in an easy to read format. It supplements my media monitoring and ensures I don’t ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    2 weeks ago

  • Further COVID-19 economic support for Cook Islands and Fiji announced
    Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta today announced a further package of support for the Cook Islands and Fiji for COVID-19 economic support and recovery. “Aotearoa New Zealand remains committed to supporting our Pacific fanau and vuvale to respond to the impacts of COVID-19 on their economies, and move towards long-term ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    13 hours ago
  • New law will clear the air for tamariki in vehicles
    From today, it’s illegal to smoke or vape in most vehicles carrying children aged under 18 years old - whether the vehicle is moving or not. “Second-hand smoke poses an unacceptable risk to our tamariki and rangatahi,” Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall said. “We know children in vehicles ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    18 hours ago
  • Nine countries designated very high risk
    Nine southern African countries are being added to the very high risk countries list following public health advice around the newly discovered COVID-19 variant Omicron, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said. This afternoon, a public health risk assessment was carried out to assess the emerging evidence and any risk to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • Foreign Affairs Minister concludes final stage of world trip
    Foreign Affairs Minister Hon Nanaia Mahuta today departed North America to return home to Aotearoa, concluding the last stage of her 17-day world trip. The final leg of her trip saw her visit the United States of America and Canada for a number of high-level discussions. While in Washington D.C., ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Milestone launch of Pacific Languages Unit
    Today’s official launch of the Pacific Languages Unit is a milestone for our Pacific communities, the Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio said. The Pacific Languages Unit brings together a new set of language supports within the Ministry for Pacific Peoples to provide advice, commission research, maintain standards, promote ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Public Health Lecture – University of Otago
    Public Health - Lessons from New Zealand’s COVID-19 response and opportunities for the future E nga mana, E nga reo,                                          E nga iwi. Tēna koutou katoa. Ka huri ki nga mana whenua o te rohe nei. Tēna koutou. He mihi hoki ki a tatou kua tau mai nei I raro I ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand statement on situation in Honiara, Solomon Islands
    Aotearoa New Zealand is deeply concerned by the events which have been unfolding in Honiara, Solomon Islands, since Wednesday. “New Zealand is a long-standing partner of Solomon Islands, and there are deep and enduring connections between our two countries,” Acting Foreign Affairs Minister David Parker said. “Our engagement in Solomon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Investment to support maternal mental health
    Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall has announced an investment to help expand maternal mental health services in five District Health Boards. “Supporting parent’s mental wellbeing during their child’s first 1000 days, from conception to two years of age, is critical to the long-term emotional, mental and physical wellbeing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Workplace vaccination requirements extended to cover Police and NZ Defence Force
    With the support of the organisations, additional vaccination requirements will cover sworn members, recruits and authorised officers of the New Zealand Police, and all New Zealand Defence Force staff. First doses of the vaccine for workers in these organisations are required by 17 January 2022, and second doses by 1 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Aotearoa New Zealand and Canada to pursue greater Indigenous collaboration
    During her visit to Ottawa, the Honourable Nanaia Mahuta, New Zealand Minister of Foreign Affairs and Associate Minister for Māori Development, met with the Honourable Patty Hajdu, Canadian Minister of Indigenous Services, and the Honourable Marc Miller, Canadian Minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations, to further expand and develop the positive relationship ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Māori vaccination rates reach 80% first dose
    Associate Minister of Health (Māori) Hon Peeni Henare today confirmed that Māori across the motu have now reached 80 percent for first doses of the COVID-19 vaccination nationally. “We have seen a huge increase in vaccinations for Māori throughout November, since the beginning of the month the increase for first ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Subsequent Children legislation to change
    The Government has today introduced legislation that will reverse provisions in the Oranga Tamariki Act as part of a path to rebuild trust and confidence in the organisation. “The Oranga Tamariki Amendment Bill makes a number of changes but by far the most important is the partial repeal of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Security Information in Proceedings Legislation Bill introduced to Parliament
    The Minister of Justice has confirmed the introduction of the Security Information in Proceedings Legislation Bill to Parliament. National security information is information which, if disclosed, would be likely to prejudice New Zealand’s security, defence, or international relations. “This Bill adds to the Government’s work to strengthen New Zealand’s protections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Shortcomings revealed in power cut investigation
    No household should have had their power disconnected 18 recommendations, mostly EA and Transpower related The EA must strengthen its oversight of the system operator An investigation into power cuts that left more than 34,000 households without electricity on one of the coldest nights of the year has found that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • COVID-19 Protection Framework supported by new testing and contact tracing strategy
    Wider use of rapid antigen testing from 1 December Increasing daily laboratory capacity to 60,000 PCR tests Q1 2022 A new national telehealth case investigation service with 475 investigators A nearly $1 billion investment in testing, contact tracing and case investigation A new national testing strategy will provide better protection ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Supporting New Zealanders to recover from COVID-19 in the community
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    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Additional support for people isolating at home
    New regional MSD COVID-19 welfare teams to coordinate social service support for those isolating at home Regional teams working alongside other government agencies, iwi/Māori and community providers for housing, food and income support Government investment of $204.1m into welfare system support for Care in the Community Minister for Social Development ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Tax bill provides vital support for families
    A boost to Working for Families tax credits, as part of a package of financial support that will see 346,000 families better off, has been passed into law late last night.  Revenue Minister David Parker said the measures would lift the incomes of those receiving the Family Tax Credit, the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New text service to support disabled peoples’ vaccinations
    Efforts to support disabled peoples’ vaccinations go from strength-to-strength with the launch of a new text service, Minister for Disability Issues Carmel Sepuloni announced today. The service, run by Whakarongorau Aotearoa on behalf of the Ministry of Health, is in response to feedback from the disability community and is an ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Proactive Calendar Release – October 2021
    ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Pacific community reach vaccination milestone
    Pacific communities across the nation have rolled up their sleeves and played their part to reach a major vaccination milestone, 90 percent  have now had their first vaccination, Aupito William Sio, Minister for Pacific Peoples and Associate Minister of Health said. “Reaching this milestone reflects the work Pacific Health Providers ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Reconnecting New Zealand – the next steps
    Fully vaccinated Kiwis and other eligible travellers can travel to NZ from Australia without staying in MIQ from 11.59pm Sunday, 16 January 2022 Fully vaccinated Kiwis and other eligible travellers can travel to NZ from all other countries from 11.59pm Sunday, 13 February 2022 All fully vaccinated individuals will be ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Shot in the arm for Canterbury tourism
    A brand new tourism attraction launched in the Canterbury high country is designed to transform the regional economy from seasonal peaks and troughs of past visitor trends. Regional Economic Development and Tourism Minister Stuart Nash has officially opened the Ōpuke Pools at Methven, which received government backing from the Provincial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Combined efforts connecting locals to nature
    A Government investment in six community and iwi-led projects across the Hawke’s Bay district will provide nature-based jobs for more than 60 locals, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. “Combined, these projects are contributing to a really ambitious conservation effort across the region, while at the same time up-skilling and offering ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Empowering Diverse Communities
    Minister for the Prevention of Family Violence and Sexual Violence Marama Davidson has approved five funding grants to support national-level family violence and sexual violence prevention initiatives for LGBTQIA+ people, disabled people, older people and new migrant communities. “Local community initiatives are a key lever in reducing violence. The Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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