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notices and features - Date published:
10:48 am, January 9th, 2017 - 13 comments
Categories: climate change, disaster, global warming -
Tags: climate change, global warming, NIWA, too late
As long predicted and widely reported, 2016 has been confirmed as the hottest year ever:
Last year was the hottest ever record, according to a European climate agency and a US-based climate centre.
While not all of the world’s major climate organisations have yet officially announced 2016 was the warmest on the books, many scientists have already called the year a record-breaker.
On Monday, the National Institute of Water and Atmosphere (Niwa) is also expected to confirm last year was New Zealand’s hottest.
Live at 11am you can catch the NIWA stream on the situation in NZ:
If you're keen to follow the 2016 #NewZealand Annual Climate Summary [#NZACS], watch live here: https://t.co/bjmgmvUXAb
— NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) January 8, 2017
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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A record breaker, eh?
So is there a competition somewhere for the design of the medal? I mean, I sincerely hope we’re not all meant to just settle for a collective pat on the back.
Cue people citing instances of cold weather as proof climate change isn’t real……….
More likely cue people who are ‘Abrupt Climate Change Deniers’. These are people who insist that we still have a decade or two to take effective action to avoid 2 deg C warming.
Newsflash – you’re dreaming. The “doomers” are more right than you are.
The world has only experienced half the warming which will result from CO2 emissions in the late 1980s. There is another half to go.
When you include increased atmospheric methane levels since pre-industrial times, it increases equivalent CO2 ppm concentrations to around 460 ppm. (350 ppm is considered a safe, stable level by many).
2016 now hottest year at 1.3 deg C above pre-industrial.
2015 was the previous hottest year at 1.1 deg C above pre-industrial.
Do you get that people? An almost 0.2 deg C increase ABOVE RECORD in just ONE FRAKKING YEAR
I hope all of you now realise that the 1.5 deg C limit which was recently set in Paris was nothing more than a feel good PR circle jerk.
TL/DR we are in accelerating abrupt climate change with a world full of abrupt climate change deniers.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/2016-hottest-year-copernicus_us_586e9ddfe4b099cdb0fc1943
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-06/world-heat-shatters-records-in-2016/8165426
If anyone is infected by CV’s panic attack at 2.1 and is starting to think … well, maybe it’s time to shed the old container to join an alien spaceship following a comet…look up what happened to average temperatures around the 1998 monster El Nino year. The pattern looks very similar to now, also a monster El Nino.
So yes, the overall AGW situation is dire. But it’s very unlikely we’ve suddenly flipped into a mode where average temperatures are increasing 0.2 degrees per year instead of 0.2 degrees per decade.
What’s more likely is the next year or two will be cooling from the peaks of 2015 and 2016 to a “new slowly increasing normal” (which deniers will call a new hiatus, no warming since 2016!) that’s maybe 0.3 degrees warmer than the 2000-2015 average, with “normal-size” El Ninos and La Ninas. Until another “monster” El Nino in 10 or 15 or 20 years which will take us another step up the temperature staircase.
Sure, we’ll know over the next 5 years if you are right or if I am right.
I’m betting I am right, but let’s wait and see. 2 deg C warming by ~2030 ftw.
BTW Nov 2016 was very almost as warm as Nov 2015: even though the massive El Nino was around its peak in Nov 2015, and had completely dissipated by Nov 2016.
For anyone looking for opinions from actual experts instead of random anonymous blog commenters…
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/heat-is-on-for-2017-21011
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/jan/06/prepare-for-reanimation-of-the-zombie-myth-no-global-warming-since-2016
“experts” whose forecasts have been consistently under-performing, who continue to make linear assumptions about what the world is experiencing, and who are under massive political and funding pressure to make believe that there’s still years/decades in which to act.
Open You MInd
http://web.archive.org/web/20100322194954/http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/01/13/models-2/
Any of those models predict that Arctic temperatures were going to be 15 deg C to 20 deg C warmer? No?
That’s what I’m talking about.
Any of those models predict the rapid destruction of Arctic sea ice over the last 10 years? No?
That’s what I’m talking about.
Any of those models predict big increases in atmospheric methane over the last few decades?
That’s what I’m talking about.
Get up to speed, man.
1 Actually yes they do.
2. Actually yes they do.
3. Here you are talking complete bullshit.
eg
https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases
Two kinds of climate change deniers:
1) Classical deniers: there is no climate change, there is no man made climate change, climate change is normal, etc.
2) Abrupt CC deniers: these are the people who despite 3 decades of actual climate change being consistently worse than forecast, despite 3 decades of experts saying that we only have x years left to sort this out before we’re fucked (and nothing being done after that those x years have elapsed), Abrupt CC deniers refuse to acknowledge how fucked we are. They still believe that we have many years worth of status quo living and carbon emissions that we can keep pumping out and that radical immediate changes are not urgently required.
There’s been a number of articles recently that say 2015 and 2016 would have been records even without El Nino.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/18/2016-locked-into-being-hottest-year-on-record-nasa-says
Yeah, that’s kind of the nature of a continually rising trend.