She did her own research

Written By: - Date published: 11:23 am, October 4th, 2024 - 25 comments
Categories: casey costello, Christopher Luxon, health, nz first - Tags:

The details of the mysterious papers that Casey Costello relied on to overrule Official advice on decision to cut taxes on Heated Tobacco Products so that Philip Morris could get a $216 million tax cut have been disclosed.

The papers do not support Costello’s claim about them. And they call into question her suitability to be a Minister.

From Russell Palmer at Radio New Zealand:

The Associate Health Minister Casey Costello’s “independent advice” on heated tobacco products is five articles that are either about different products, outdated, or only offer weak support for her view.

The five documents are not decisive on the benefits of the products.

They include:

  • A 190-page report from Royal College of Physicians in the UK, published in 2016 that does not specifically mention heated tobacco products
  • An article from the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (IJERPH) in 2022, suggesting HTPs may help with smoking cessation, but the benefits are reduced if HTPs are used as a replacement for less-harmful vaping, and warns it could encourage non-smokers to use tobacco or lead former smokers to relapse
  • A 2016 article (IJERPH) indicating the use of a different tobacco product, Snus, ‘appears to facilitate’ smoking cessation in Sweden
  • A 2020 article (IJERPH) about smoking patterns in Japan – where nicotine vaping is not used – showing cigarette sales decreased after the introduction of Heated Tobacco Products

The final article was a comment piece published in the Lancet.

A more recent report from the Royal College of Physicians also says the tobacco industry’s claims heated tobacco products are less harmful than cigarettes is “not yet supported by independent evidence”.

The 2022 article also highlights that while substantial research has been devoted to nicotine vaping products, “much less is known about HTPs”.

“Better information is needed to more precisely define the health risks of HTPs compared to cigarettes and NVPs, the relative appeal of HTPs to consumers, and the likelihood of later transitioning to smoking or quitting all products,” it states.

Labour’s Ayesha Verrall has gone on the offensive. Again from Radio New Zealand:

Labour’s Ayesha Verrall told RNZ it showed Costello could not be trusted, and should be sacked.

“There are many things that Ministers are expected by Cabinets to have worked out for themselves, and when they put assurances in paper to Cabinet about the work they have done to justify the paper they’re bringing, that will be taken on trust by their colleagues.

“What the minister has shown here is that her assurance cannot be trusted, and that comes back to Christopher Luxon. Is he going to accept someone who basically prints some junk off the internet as a justification for a $216 million tax cut, being part of his Cabinet?”

I am still shaking my head about this. From what I can tell Costello’s highest qualification was obtained at Police College. Medical science is really detailed and contested and there is nothing to suggest that she has the Intellectual rigour to properly analyse what she is reading. And she has racist tendancies as shown by her support for Hobson’s Pledge. There is an inverse correltation between intelligence and holding racist beliefs.

Her level of intellectual rigour is such that she does not appear to appreciate that her judgment is inferior to that of people who spend their professional lives keeping on top of the literature. And she was willing to bypass them and exclude them from her decision making.

And even if there is merit in using HTPs to reduce smoking there is no guarantee that the way she has done it will actually make the products cheaper or more accessible. Philip Morris could just pocket the extra profit.

This highlights Christopher Luxon’s lax control over his ministers not to mention the very poor quality of Ministers that he has. If this was Helen Clark’s Government Costello would be out.

25 comments on “She did her own research ”

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  1. Matiri 1
    4 October 2024 at 11:28 am

    Should that be 'have been disclosed' rather than 'have not been disclosed'?

    [Oops. Now corrected – MS]

  2. Tiger Mountain 2
    4 October 2024 at 11:30 am

    PM Baldrick Luxon is playing “I know nothink…” because he lacks courage, is not well suited to politics, and yet knows exactly what will happen if Mrs Costello is sacked–Winston will be at his door…carrying a (figurative) baseball bat with spikes…

    Remember when Clare Curran got relentlessly hounded for alleged diary discrepancies for one pathetic meeting with a media figure? Nothing compared to what this Minister has been up to, arrogantly securing millions for her Tobacco mates and potentially endangering thousands of NZ peoples health, in a very unsophisticated way.

  3. joe90 3
    4 October 2024 at 11:45 am

    Labour’s Ayesha Verrall has gone on the offensive.

    Too easy..

    .

    @drayeshaverrall

    Costello’s bid for a $216M tax break for Philip Morris was approved by Cabinet, but it turns out the only evidence she had was a bunch of irrelevant papers and an op ed.
    Time to break out the epidemiology PhD and Costello’s so called “independent advice” … cracks knuckles. đŸ§”1/8

    https://xcancel.com/drayeshaverrall/status/1841745561697059310

  4. Anne 4
    4 October 2024 at 11:59 am

    Whenever someone says "they did their own research" an alarm bell rings inside my head. frown

  5. Tony Veitch 5
    4 October 2024 at 12:24 pm

    Wot really happened:

    A Phillip Morris executive called Costello – "Look, we've got a shed load of these HTP which are not moving. How about giving a bit of an incentive for mugs people to buy them?"

    Costello – "Will do, I'll persuade Luxon to offer a tax break, he's a sucker for any line of non-reasoning which doesn't affect his bottom line. If nothing else, you'll make a tidy bit on the side, and I know you'll remember me when I 'retire' from politics."

    Political commentators: "Where is the evidence on which you based this tax break?"

    Costello to emotional junior staffer: "Quickly, search the internet for anything that backs up my position!"

    And the rest, as they say, is history!

  6. Mac1 6
    4 October 2024 at 12:40 pm

    Was Minister Costello ever asked when she did this research, even down to the individual papers/reports, especially when compared to the timeline of her decision-making process?

    In other words, what actual evidence influenced her decision/s?

    Was she asked what reports and evidence was she offered or made aware of, before the decision being made, that she did not read?

    Does this explain why she initially refused to show these papers /reports? She’d not read them and needed time to amass some ‘evidence’?

  7. tsmithfield 7
    4 October 2024 at 1:12 pm

    I can't see her lasting until Christmas tbh.

    • Grey Area 7.1
      4 October 2024 at 1:31 pm

      Ordinarily I would agree with you. But we are in strange times.

      If we had a leader with a hint of a spine, some political nous and ability to read the room, she'd be gone. But we've got Luxon.

      If she was a National MP, she would have probably been booted from Cabinet.

      But she isn't. And under our Luxon who clearly was willing to give up nearly everything to be PM, she may hang on.

      • tsmithfield 7.1.1
        4 October 2024 at 2:08 pm

        Time will tell I guess. Probably even Peters is finding her to be an embarrassment. So, might be quicker than what you think.

  8. Grey Area 8
    4 October 2024 at 1:12 pm

    Corruption Costello is clearly not fit to be a Minister (or an MP). But like Seymour, McKee, Jones etc she knows under this corrupt coalition with it's shallow, incompetent PM she and they are untouchable.

    Unless the pressure builds to cancer drug funding levels.

  9. Stephen D 9
    4 October 2024 at 2:30 pm

    The pressure needs to be applied on Winston. As leader of her party he is the only one who can sack her. Blowtorch on Winnie time.

    • mpledger 9.1
      5 October 2024 at 9:31 am

      Where is Winnie? I thought he'd be out front revelling in being deputy PM but he's been awol for ages.

  10. georgecom 10
    4 October 2024 at 3:07 pm

    I found a roll of "independent research" next to the throne this morning when I was having a seat

    • Incognito 10.1
      4 October 2024 at 3:14 pm

      I bet you didn’t table that either at cabinet to avoid creating a stink with the soap dispenser 


  11. georgecom 11
    4 October 2024 at 3:37 pm

    might mail it to her, she can use it to wipe Shane Jones, Seymour and Simeons Browns mouths with it given the loads they often speak

  12. ianmac 12
    4 October 2024 at 4:57 pm

    So far the COC Government just ignores the mischief that they use. The peasants do't matter so a quick scoff and carry on. For example :

    Major freshwater u-turn ‘snuck in’ to unrelated bill

    Select committee told environmental group to save its concerns about out-of-scope policy changes ‘for another day’, and then made those changes anyway………

    The group was told by committee chair Mark Cameron (Act’s spokesperson for agriculture and rural communities) the concerns were best “left for another day”, and dropped the matter.

    But earlier this week, the committee’s final report made it clear that those concerns were apparently very much in scope, as they recommended reworking section 107 in line with the wishes of the industry groups who submitted on it.

    https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/10/03/major-freshwater-u-turn-snuck-in-to-unrelated-bill/?utm_source=Newsroom&utm_campaign=62821c400a-Daily_Briefing+04.10.2024&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_71de5c4b35-62821c400a-95522477&mc_cid=62821c400a&mc_eid=88a3081e75

  13. Mike the Lefty 13
    4 October 2024 at 4:58 pm

    Doing your own research is fair enough, but shouldn't it be relevant?

    The Minister's research wasn't really relevant and looks suspiciously like a hastily assembled bunch of notes designed to make it look relevant, but failed.

    Sloppy work and now her colleagues are starting to get a bit sick of covering for her.

  14. adam 14
    4 October 2024 at 9:53 pm

    I blame Winnie – he picked her.

  15. thinker 15
    4 October 2024 at 11:10 pm

    My highest qualification is probably above Costello's, but none of it from the health sector.

    And, I haven't been to Japan in the last 10 years, but I have been a few times.

    So, being upfront about my limitations,anecdotally, the tobacco cigarettes that particularly men smoked seemed pretty powerful compared to ours, if my passive smoking research is anything to go by.

    Like factory chimneys. If you've ever shopped around for a Jap import car, you'll recall the stench from a smokers car that not even professional valets can get rid of.

    So, it wouldn't surprise me if the HTP ciggies were less harmful than ordinary ones in that country.

  16. powerman 16
    5 October 2024 at 8:41 am

    Is there a trend here? Did Simeone Brown Google speed limits? Did Willis Google ferries? There are so many unusual decisions which this government has made one has to wonder.

  17. Booker 17
    8 October 2024 at 3:01 pm

    It’s worth noting that IJERPH was delisted from the Web of Science in 2023. That means its contents are no longer indexed in major scientific search engines or databases, and this was done precisely because of irregularities in the journal’s publishing behavior.