A bit wet lately

105 comments on “A bit wet lately ”

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1. whispering kate 1

   30 June 2016 at 12:55 pm

   I commented on the climate on Open Mike this morning. About Dr Jan Wright the independent Parliamentary Watchdog on the Environment and her comments about the Government’s first Environment Report it promised and has subsequently been released . She is very scathing and says it does nothing, just skips over the real problems. She subtly has gone ahead and written recommendations which the Government should include in any other reports and no doubt we will be seeing an early retirement from her. Being independent from the Government will she be safe from being made to walk the plant as I can see Dr Smith will be seething and spouting at the gall she had to contradict their Report. Her consideration was it was a white wash – nothing strange for this Government.
   • Jenny Kirk 1.1

     30 June 2016 at 1:39 pm

     Dr Jan Wright has a five year contract – due to end sometime next year, I think. She’s probably safe for the time being – govt wouldn’t want the publicity or hassle of curtailing her contract before it ends.
   • leftie 1.2

     30 June 2016 at 2:35 pm

     Didn’t the same Dr Jan Wright in late 2012, make a report for the National government that said, fracking was safe and harmless?
     • Robert Guyton 1.2.1

       30 June 2016 at 2:43 pm

       No. She didn’t say that.
       There are plenty of comments and articles online for you to research. Here’s one example:
       “A small tick – Wright decided against a moratorium on fracking, saying there was time to ‘tweak’ the existing regulations. However, she said she did not want to see the report as a “big tick” for the current regulations around fracking. She said the current regulation was “not adequate” and New Zealand needed to get ahead of the game before an expansion of fracking. She pointed to how regulators in Australia and the United States had struggled to catch up when the industry expanded quickly.”
       • leftie 1.2.1.1

         30 June 2016 at 5:06 pm

         No need for fracking ban in New Zealand – Commissioner

         “An interim report by commissioner Jan Wright concluded that the controversial process of hydraulic fracturing, known as “fracking”, could be done safely in New Zealand if well-managed.”

         <a href="http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10850290

         No matter how it’s done, how can fracking ever be considered good practice Robert?

         Dr Wright did criticize the practice of spreading highly toxic fracking waste onto farmland, where livestock graze. Government and council have lied about this practice.

         “Media reports yesterday said the TRC based their practice of allowing “fracking waste to be applied to farmland” on Canada’s Alberta Energy Regulator (AER)’s guidelines.

         They also stated the AER said it did not allow this practice.

         A spokesperson from the Canada energy regulator told Radio New Zealand that Alberta’s fracking waste was disposed of “in industrial waste facilities” and was not allowed to be spread on farmland in the process known as landfarming.

         The spokesperson reportedly said waste from the hydraulic fracturing process was not suitable for agricultural land.”

         <a href="http://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/9528821/Disposal-of-drilling-waste-questioned

         Govt urged to intervene on oil waste

         <a href="http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/246342/govt-urged-to-intervene-on-oil-waste

         Council chair rejects oil waste claim

         “Fonterra director David MacLeod rejects any suggestion that the council he is chairman of is undermining food safety or New Zealand’s reputation in any way.

         Mr MacLeod is chairman of the Taranaki Regional Council, which consents the disposal of oil industry waste onto about a dozen dairy and drystock farms, known as landfarms, in the region.”

         “Mr MacLeod said Dr Wright “if anything, supports landfarming in her report”.

         <a href="http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/rural/256444/council-chair-rejects-oil-waste-claim

         Has the “lockedgate” policy proposed by the government in 2015 been implemented yet? How can a council who have lied about this practice in the past be trusted to enforce new regulations should they be implemented, particularly when Councillors with vested interested is concerned?

         Changes to waste farm livestock rules

         <a href="http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/rural/273987/changes-to-waste-farm-livestock-rules
         • Robert Guyton 1.2.1.1.1

           30 June 2016 at 7:44 pm

           “No need for fracking ban in New Zealand – Commissioner”

           Perhaps she knew that fracking was dead in the water and there was, therefore, “No need for fracking ban in New Zealand”
           It seems not to be an issue now, Leftie.
           • leftie 1.2.1.1.1.1

             30 June 2016 at 10:11 pm

             Fracking in this country hasn’t stopped, so it is still very much of an issue Robert. Gobsmacked you said something as stupid as that.

             Dr Wright should have pushed for a ban.
2. M. Gray 2

   30 June 2016 at 1:05 pm

   Good on her about time we heard the true story this government has been covering up too much . We need to get rid of them at the next election. No doubt they will come out swinging at the next election telling us how they have given us all the brighter future promised. But I am sure by now many NZers now realise there is no brighter future and there never will be under the pnats.
3. esoteric pineapples 3

   30 June 2016 at 1:27 pm

   It was good to see the weather lady on TV3 last night include increased greenhouse gases in the reasons she gave for the heavy rain. I’d like to think that climate change is becoming part of mainstream discourse.
   • BlueSky 3.1

     30 June 2016 at 2:35 pm

     Good idea. Perhaps they should report regularly on the atmospheric carbon levels from around the country relative to previous years or periods.
     Pollution levels would also be a useful measure so we know where to avoid if possible.
   • weka 3.2

     30 June 2016 at 5:52 pm

     Thanks for saying that ep. I don’t watch TV, but that is indeed good if the weather reader is naming it.
     • Macro 3.2.1

       30 June 2016 at 6:38 pm

       Jim Hickey on TV1used to refer to Jim Salinger wrt CC on a number of occasions before Salinger was silenced by NIWA obviously under directive from on high (new Nat Govt at the time and sensitive to their indifferent stance on CC). Now the arrogant bastards just don’t give a fig – bet they want to have the original cartoon on the wall.
       • weka 3.2.1.1

         30 June 2016 at 7:41 pm

         Wow, that was a long time ago too.
         • In Vino 3.2.1.1.1

           30 June 2016 at 8:56 pm

           No it wasn’t. You must be bloody young, Weka…

           Not that there is anything wrong with that!
           • weka 3.2.1.1.1.1

             30 June 2016 at 9:02 pm

             lol, I thought that 8 years ago not that many people in that kind of situation were talking about CC seriously.
             • In Vino …

               30 June 2016 at 9:35 pm

               You might be right about that – assuming that I interpreted all your that’s correctly. Smiley face.
             • Macro …

               1 July 2016 at 4:27 pm

               I used to ride the train to Wellington with Jim when he was writing his seminal work at Vic on NZ’s temperature in the late ’70’s early ’80’s. We discussed AGW and CC quite a bit.(When teaching physics in the early ’70s the greenhouse effect was introduced to the Science Curriculum at that time, and I was interested to see if the increasing CO2 was affecting temperatures). We both had children at the same school and caught the same train – so naturally would spend the hour to and from chatting together. I was posted to Singapore mid ’80s and only met him again a couple of years back when he was doing a tour with Rod Oram on CC for Gen Zero.
4. Jenny Kirk 4

   30 June 2016 at 1:36 pm

   It’s maybe time NZ Transport started digging bigger drains along the motorways ….. which would ease some of the flooding that happens regularly on motorways during heavy deluges.

   Right now, the Whangarei contractor is going down our street sucking gunge and rubbish out of the road drains – does this happen elsewhere, as a precautionery measure against road flooding ?
   • Colonial Viper 4.1

     30 June 2016 at 1:40 pm

     Billions of dollars of climate change adaptation measures are needed immediately.

     Unfortunately these measures will also take plenty of carbon to implement.
5. Colonial Viper 5

   30 June 2016 at 1:38 pm

   So far the Earth has experienced roughly half the global warming expected from emissions released in the 1980s.

   There is another half to come.

   That’s how fucked the situation is.

   Radical or revolutionary change is no longer an option; within this generation it is an inevitability, one way or another.
   • Richardrawshark 5.1

     30 June 2016 at 3:15 pm

     You better get you head around one thing CV, there is fuck all you can do about it, unless you can invent an air scrubber super sized. The countries causing the problem, are procrastinating, stalling, or plain ignoring it.

     Here, your just getting wound up over something you have pretty much no control over.
     • Colonial Viper 5.1.1

       30 June 2016 at 5:08 pm

       There is that. Which is why I see some sense in Lanth’s commment (even if I do not 100% agree with them) that here in NZ we should just keep burning and live in relative comfort while we can.

       But doing more than that however, we should simultaneously be de-carbonising our economy and putting it in a de-growth mode ready for the end of fossil fuels which realistically is only 40 years away anyway.

       While taking huge climate change adaptation measures, and leading internationally on a carbon tax on all energy. Say NZ$0.50 on every kg of CO2 a fuel produces, increasing by 20c per year. Captured at importation or extraction of that fuel.
     • weka 5.1.2

       30 June 2016 at 5:54 pm

       “Here, your just getting wound up over something you have pretty much no control over.”

       That is simply not true Richard. Climate change is here and it’s real, but there is plenty to be done about mitigating the worst of it. We have a very real choice between big changes and catastrophic changes.
6. BM 6

   30 June 2016 at 1:39 pm

   What a load of poo.

   There’s being 161 mm of rain this month with 52 mm coming in one day.

   Last year there was 181 mm of rain for June.
   • Colonial Viper 6.1

     30 June 2016 at 1:41 pm

     Yes mate. If you even out massive floods in the first half year, and a total drought in the second half year, yes, it does make it look like an “average year.”
     • BM 6.1.1

       30 June 2016 at 1:50 pm

       I don’t think shrieking climate change every time there’s a bit of rain does much for the cause.
       • Robert Guyton 6.1.1.1

         30 June 2016 at 2:19 pm

         I do. Whenever there are exceptional or extreme weather events, the question; is this resulting from a warming atmosphere? is the obvious question that every intelligent human should ask. BM’s “shrieking” and “bit of rain” has him sounding overly-emotional and anti-science and that doesn’t do much for his cause, I imagine.
         • BM 6.1.1.1.1

           30 June 2016 at 3:11 pm

           Look there’s even a page dedicated to flooding on the Auckland council website.

           Flooding is Auckland’s most common natural hazard. Most flooding occurs over a short period and affects relatively localised areas. Flooding is dependent on several factors including rainfall intensity and duration, soil conditions, local river levels and the physical characteristics of the catchment.

           http://www.aucklandcouncil.govt.nz/en/environmentwaste/naturalhazardsemergencies/hazards/pages/floodhazardsinauckland.aspx

           Yep, definitely climate change. 🙄
       • Richardrawshark 6.1.1.2

         30 June 2016 at 3:09 pm

         I think BM, In a country that I think produces 0.01-0.1 % of the planets pollution we have better local causes that we could be pursuing and leave it up to the activists and international leaders to sort it out in those places.

         This however does not mean we ignore, farm pollution , nitrogen leakage etc and pollution that locally effects us rather than a global one we are not really causing like in air contaminants.

         This is why I say we are doomed below, because the countries fucking it up for all of us, will do fuck all.
         • BM 6.1.1.2.1

           30 June 2016 at 3:16 pm

           This however does not mean we ignore, farm pollution , nitrogen leakage etc and pollution that locally effects us rather than a global one we are not really causing like in air contaminants.

           I completely agree.

           What put it into perspective for me was when I was reading a website on coal usage in China.

           China buys something like 60% of the available coal supply but that only accounts for less than 20% of the coal they use.

           They use that much coal.
           • Robert Guyton 6.1.1.2.1.1

             30 June 2016 at 3:33 pm

             Through our actions, we create local pollutants and we create greenhouse gases. Let’s reduce both as far as possible.
             BM – why do you criticise those who hold that the deluge in Auckland could have been in part the result of increased greenhouse gas in the atmosphere? You can’t show that it wasn’t, as much as they can’t prove that it was, so why the smarmy froth from you?
           • Richardrawshark 6.1.1.2.1.2

             30 June 2016 at 3:47 pm

             Smelting steel during the boom years, but with resent quality issues and steel production reducing they may have slowed coal imports, that and the fact the price of Coal bottomed out may mean that it’s been like that for about 6-7 years now.

             Still it looks like England turn of the 20th still to me, they got a lot of catching up to do , and will they, do they give a shit, they just buy cans of our air.. fkn makes me cry.

             I’ve delt with shit loads of sheets of mild and stainless from steel n tube, some batches had heaps of defects and had to be sent back. 316l on a lathe just about to finish a weld neck and a divot appears wrecking the whole job and all the time it took to manufacture. Due to poor manufacturing in china.

             New there was a problem with Chinese steel for ages and now it comes out.

             to much Bullshit i’m bloody drowning in it.
             • Colonial Viper …

               30 June 2016 at 4:21 pm

               I’ve delt with shit loads of sheets of mild and stainless from steel n tube, some batches had heaps of defects and had to be sent back. 316l on a lathe just about to finish a weld neck and a divot appears wrecking the whole job and all the time it took to manufacture. Due to poor manufacturing in china.

               Yep. This is an absolute waste of energy and emissions and non-renewable resources to create shit.
           • Colonial Viper 6.1.1.2.1.3

             30 June 2016 at 4:20 pm

             China buys something like 60% of the available coal supply but that only accounts for less than 20% of the coal they use.

             Sounds about right. Overall World GHG emissions are now 57% higher than when the Rio Climate Change conference was held in 1992.

             That’s how screwed we are.

             Re: China, they have a twenty year plan to get off coal, and I think they are very serious about making that happen.
             • BM …

               30 June 2016 at 5:14 pm

               Unless they do, the world is boned climate wise.
               • Colonial Viper …

                 30 June 2016 at 5:28 pm

                 There is that; but their emissions per capita remain around 1/4 that of the USA and 1/2 that of the rest of the western world.
                 • Bill …

                   30 June 2016 at 6:22 pm

                   It gets even more marked when you break it down into ‘top emitters’, middle emitters’ and ‘low emitters’ based on a per person basis.

                   So, the wealthiest 10% of people produce ~ 50% of all emissions
                   the next richest 40% of people produce ~40% of all emissions
                   and poorest 50% of people produce ~10% of all emissions

                   The make up of that high emitting 10% (50% of all emissions) is –

                   Chinese account for about 10% of that number
                   Indians for about 1%
                   North Americans for about 40%
                   Europeans just under 20%

                   The make up of the middle 40% (40% of all emissions) is –

                   Chinese account for about 35% of that number
                   Indians for about 5%
                   North Americans for about 7%
                   Europeans about 18%

                   The make up of the lowest 50% (10% of all emissions) is –

                   Chinese 16%
                   Indians 36%
                   No Europeans or North Americans.

                   Chancel and Piketty “Carbon and Inequality” …pp31
                   • Macro …

                     30 June 2016 at 6:44 pm

                     Interesting breakdown Bill.
                     Bearing in mind that Europe and North America and Australia/NZ have exported most of their manufacturing emissions to China and India as well makes the figures for the western world even more damming.
   • Armchair Critic 6.2

     30 June 2016 at 10:48 pm

     The monthly data are not what caused the flooding. Rather, the flooding was caused by unusually high hourly rates, which is one of the predicted effects of climate change.
     I’d be more than happy to educate you about the hudrology once you can produce the hourly stats for last June. However I expect that even if you could, you won’t because it’s not in your interest to do so.
7. Richardrawshark 7

   30 June 2016 at 2:58 pm

   People are moaning now, Like a train or giant cargo ship inertia means even if we start stopping now it’ll be ages before the reversal occurs. Figuratively

   We are DOOMED! It’s just starting and it’s going to keep on getting worse year after year. In 5 years we’ll be thinking these were nice conditions.

   Mark this post..I will revisit this in 5.
   • mauī 7.1

     30 June 2016 at 3:33 pm

     Yeah but what you and CV are saying is that we should basically accept annihilation in the not too distant future. I don’t think that’s helpful. Even the experts don’t say that, and with how complex climate science is I doubt anyone really knows what will happen in the future. Throw political and economic factors changing much more rapidly across the world into the mix and I think the predictions turn into a lot of guess work.
     • Richardrawshark 7.1.1

       30 June 2016 at 3:39 pm

       -Maui When you get bigger weather events the bad things in those events become more severe. Take the monsoons in India where 90 people died, take warmer weather meaning cyclones tracking down here more often.

       It’s going to get a lot lot worse yet, we are still pumping shit up there.

       Lastly as China, India, etc are the ones just flat out polluting the atmosphere, that in Brazil they are clearing the rain forests, and in Nigeria too. It’s nothing we can control whatsoever, nor do we have the international power to force them.

       There is nothing we here in NZ can do except attend meeting and hope they act.
       • mauī 7.1.1.1

         30 June 2016 at 5:02 pm

         Yeah weather events could get worse next year, then again they might be less extreme than what they were this year, no one knows. The trajectory is worrying, but personally I don’t believe we’re in a fight for survival. I feel it’s wasting energy if we focus on the “we’re all gonna die in 2030 or 2050 scenario”. Most people don’t feel empowered about changing something so distant as the atmosphere, so again I think energy is wasted there. What gets people interested is if there’s somewhere they can buy locally grown veges for the week for a bargain price or digging in plants to help restore their local park they regularly walk in. Those kind of things help address the more global problems and point things in a beneficial direction for everyone.
         • Colonial Viper 7.1.1.1.1

           30 June 2016 at 5:12 pm

           Yeah but what you and CV are saying is that we should basically accept annihilation in the not too distant future. I don’t think that’s helpful.

           Annhilation of our global civilisation as we know it over the next 30-40 years is inevitable.

           Ensuring NZ protects a decent standard of living and society is quite do-able, though.

           For one thing I am proposing a hard 6M population cap.
     • Robert Guyton 7.1.2

       30 June 2016 at 3:41 pm

       mauī – a significant moment occurred when those who hold that the climate is being changed by human industry decided to no longer debate the point with deniers. Now, we have another moment approaching where those who want to engage in positive action need to dismiss the doomsayers as counter-productive and stop engaging in debate with them. Of course, it’s still occasionally fun to poke them and see them squirm, but really, they’re dead-weight now. The success of the “action-stations” team depends on them being focused and confident. I reckon.
       • Robert Atack 7.1.2.1

         30 June 2016 at 4:01 pm

         where those who want to engage in positive action need to dismiss the doomsayers as counter-productive and stop engaging in debate with them.

         You have that the wrong way around Robert, it is the so called ‘doomsayers’ (of which I am more than happy to be grouped with) that are/have stopped engaging in the idiots that think they can stop, or even slow this death train down.
         Again 406+ ppm CO2 = human/all mammals extinction.
         • Colonial Viper 7.1.2.1.1

           30 June 2016 at 5:17 pm

           Again 406+ ppm CO2 = human/all mammals extinction.

           Pretty sure there were a lot of mammals 3M to 4M years ago when we were last at these CO2 levels.

           Then again by 2030 I expect CO2 levels to be at 440 ppm.
         • corokia 7.1.2.1.2

           30 June 2016 at 5:24 pm

           ” it is the so called ‘doomsayers’ (of which I am more than happy to be grouped with) that are/have stopped engaging in the idiots that think they can stop, or even slow this death train down.”

           No you haven’t, you are still commenting here.
           Go do something else with your final years then.

           Those of us who give a shit about the future 1st had bullshit from the deniers, now its the ” give up, it’s all hopeless” crowd who de-rail the discussion.
           So just piss off.
       • weka 7.1.2.2

         30 June 2016 at 7:48 pm

         +everything RG.

         No-one in this thread knows what is going to happen. We know that CC is here, we don’t know how bad it will be. We know that reducing carbon emissions is one thing that will make a difference. People who say it is too late are part of the problem, because they are now arguing against change. I agree, they are the new deniers and should be treated as such.
         • marty mars 7.1.2.2.1

           30 June 2016 at 9:19 pm

           There may also be another category. As well as those who accept and plan for a ‘realistic’ in their eyes future – which requires downsizing. There is the ‘something will sort it out’ camp. Those people imo are sorta a problem for effective change too.
     • Bill 7.1.3

       30 June 2016 at 4:51 pm

       Even the experts don’t say that

       Well…

       Taking IPCC carbon budgets for this century, we can throw 600Gt of CO2 from energy use into the atmosphere over the course of this century and we’ll have something like a 66% chance of not exceeding 2 degrees of warming.

       Crunch through the numbers in relation to just China and India while placing onerous responsibilities on them – on the cusp of possible/impossible – and they’ll emit 700Gt.

       That’s 100Gt over the 700Gt budget for a 2 in 3 chance of avoiding +2 degrees – while assuming that the west is already emitting precisely zero.

       Add 300Gt to the available budget for a 50/50 chance of avoiding +2 degrees while keeping the same strait jacket on China and India. We in the west now have 200Gt of CO2 from energy available over the course of this century. At current emission rates, we’ll blow that 200Gt in no time.

       Our options, according to experts in the field? Carry on as now and arrive in some version of imaginable hell pretty soon, or get to zero emissions from energy sources over the space of the next 15 years or so.
       • Colonial Viper 7.1.3.1

         30 June 2016 at 5:25 pm

         and we’ll have something like a 66% chance of not exceeding 2 degrees of warming.

         I think we are sitting on 1.0 to 1.1 deg C warming now. There is at least another 1.0 deg C that we are currently being protected from via ‘global dimming’.

         The majority of the warming due to GHGs released in the 90’s, 2000s and 2010’s have yet to impact our current temperature. (It takes 30 years for half the warming impact of GHG emissions to be measurable).

         So if we turn the switch off on fossil fuel use tonight, the planet has decades of global warming ahead of it, plus the 1+ deg C bump from the loss of global dimming will kick in within two or three months.

         So 2 deg C to 3 deg C warming is already a done deal.

         The question is can we avoid 3 deg C to 4 deg C warming.
         • Lanthanide 7.1.3.1.1

           30 June 2016 at 5:50 pm

           I’m not sure about the specific numbers, but that’s broadly my outlook too.
         • Bill 7.1.3.1.2

           30 June 2016 at 6:26 pm

           I honestly couldn’t tell you whether the numbers (odds) are based on a low, medium or high sensitivity. I might suspect they’re based on a low sensitivity, but would have to look it up to be sure.
       • mauī 7.1.3.2

         30 June 2016 at 7:06 pm

         You’re better at these figures than me Bill. I’m going to go by this graph (Figure 1) by the World Bank : http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2013/03/26/000445729_20130326120429/Rendered/PDF/632190WP0Turn000Box374367B00PUBLIC0.pdf

         If I’m reading the graph right, 4+ degrees by the end of this century if we keep the status quo is highly unlikely, because in all honesty who really thinks we can carry on with this crazy endless growth economy for another decade let alone another 60+ years. That’s what makes me question the models and numbers for starters. That and a strange optimism that we won’t destroy our life support system (the earth).
         • Colonial Viper 7.1.3.2.1

           30 June 2016 at 8:10 pm

           Watch this BBC documentary from 2005 on “Global Dimming” then we can discuss further.

           http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x22692o_bbc-horizon-2005-global-dimming_shortfilms

           Also – google ‘climate change thermal inertia’
       • weka 7.1.3.3

         30 June 2016 at 7:52 pm

         Bill you misquoted mauī. Here’s what they said, my emphasis.

         Yeah but what you and CV are saying is that we should basically accept annihilation in the not too distant future. I don’t think that’s helpful. Even the experts don’t say that, and with how complex climate science is I doubt anyone really knows what will happen in the future. Throw political and economic factors changing much more rapidly across the world into the mix and I think the predictions turn into a lot of guess work.

         We need to be very careful about what we are trying to convince people of. Giving people the science to show that the situation is serious is crucial. Supporting people who say it’s too late and we’re doomed is hugely counter productive.
         • Colonial Viper 7.1.3.3.1

           30 June 2016 at 8:05 pm

           Supporting people who say it’s too late and we’re doomed is hugely counter productive.

           Your use of the phrase “too late” is part of the problem.

           I will be more specific:

           It is now too late to avoid multi-metre sea level rise in the next few hundred years. It is now too late to avoid 2 to 3 deg C global warming. It is now too late to save the West Antarctic ice shelf. It is now too late to save coastal cities that 1B or more people live in. It is now too late to avoid 420ppm CO2. It is now too late to avoid the highest CO2 levels for at least the last 3M years. It is now too late to stop gigatonne scale releases of methane from the environment.
           • weka 7.1.3.3.1.1

             30 June 2016 at 8:20 pm

             What’s your plan CV? Do you want things to change for the better? How does this conversation help that?
             • Colonial Viper …

               30 June 2016 at 9:00 pm

               This conversation helps out by presenting the truth, not lies or day dreams.
               • weka …

                 30 June 2016 at 9:04 pm

                 That’s the statement of a zealot. No room that you might be wrong and that it’s still possible to change for the better.

                 People being certain that it’s too late and that NZ can’t do anything anyway isn’t the truth. It’s belief. And it’s causing problems.
                 • Colonial Viper …

                   30 June 2016 at 9:17 pm

                   I have already said that 3 deg C to 4 deg C warming is avoidable.

                   But 2 deg C to 3 deg C warming is not.

                   So I believe that it is “still possible to change for the better.”

                   Also you have used the problematic statement “too late” again. I have been very specific about what “too late” means to me. What does it mean to you. Do you honestly believe that it is not “too late” to avoid 2 deg C warming.
                   • weka …

                     30 June 2016 at 10:22 pm

                     So I believe that it is “still possible to change for the better.”

                     Thanks for clarifying that.

                     “too late” is my shorthand for people who are running lines that there is nothing to be one. BM is an obvious one. Likewise Robert Atack. Richard is doing that in this thread too, although I suspect his motivations are a bit different. So when I talk about “too late” I am referring to people’s choices to be certain in their own beliefs, to not be honest that they are beliefs, and to promote certain responses on the basis of that eg we can’t do anything. For people like myself who believe that change is reliant on people believing that change is possible, I see that as an increasind problem. I also believe that in order for people to act they need to not get stuck in their own powerlessness, and promoting the idea that it’s too late engenders powerlessness.

                     For me there is no such thing as “too late”. That CC will have massive impact has been a given for me for some time, but there is a big difference between things like the end of the global economy and extinction. Plus all the possibilities in between.

                     I don’t see it as a once we get locked into X it’s too late, because we don’t know what the actual impacts will be. We have theories around that, some of them solid theories, eg sea level rise. But we don’t know how it will play out. There are many variables. By all that I don’t mean that it won’t be that bad. I mean that we don’t know the detail.

                     One thing I am certain of is that there will always be things we can do, and that we need to act as soon as possible.

                     I’m also fairly certain that in order to have meaningful change we need momentum. I don’t believe that people adopting a position of it’s too late will aid that, and it will actually work against it. That is as bad as the outright deniers. Everything we do at this point is critical.
               • Corokia …

                 30 June 2016 at 9:16 pm

                 Are you out there presenting ” the truth” to a wider audience than TS CV?
                 • Colonial Viper …

                   30 June 2016 at 9:20 pm

                   My political team is on board with it. We’re still formulating a fuller response.
         • Bill 7.1.3.3.2

           30 June 2016 at 10:49 pm

           I didn’t mis-quote maui Weka.

           I cut and pasted an assertion and laid out a summary of bare numbers to offer an indication of what experts are saying. Do those numbers amount to annihilation or point to annihilation? That’s up to people who read and dig into the numbers to decide for themselves. Not me.

           But I’ll say this, it sure as fuck isn’t down to me to sugar coat shit because some people might find things ‘a bit fucking hard’ to deal with. That, in case you missed it, is what almost all government funded scientists and policy makers and governments have been doing this past quarter of a century.

           So no, I don’t need to be careful with my pitch. Part of the reason we’re in the dire straits we find ourselves in is because no-one wanted to rock the boat, upset the apple-cart, scare the horses, create ripples….

           And I certainly don’t need to be fucking well lectured about supposedly “supporting people” when all I’m doing is merely speaking from my own perspective, relaying my own thoughts or feelings on a matter and pointing to credible sources of information for people that they can either choose to heed or ignore.
8. Robert Guyton 8

   30 June 2016 at 4:28 pm

   Some people, myself included, don’t ” think they can stop, or even slow this death train down”, though I wouldn’t use those words, but nevertheless see value in taking action on a range of activities, all with the climate and the future in mind. Your crew, the doomsayers, not only decry all “outsiders” as idiots, you also undermine their efforts to follow their own paths. I suspect you and Richardrawshark, for example, are by nature, depressives and this platform suits you to express the experience of your gloomy world. BM, otoh, is just here for sh*ts and giggles, and not worth considering.
   • Richardrawshark 8.1

     30 June 2016 at 4:41 pm

     No Robert, I am more a realist. From my past experience with large foreign powers in history, things have to get formidably bad before they do anything that may effect anyone who votes for them.

     So many examples of corporate wealth before the climate and peoples welfare take as one example bikini atoll, Fracking, oil spills, coal fired smelters and electricity generation etc at what point this time do you think they will change?

     NZ is pretty good globally climate pollution wise, and I fear, because I know just what a bunch of self interested MP’s these famous big power ones are, how they got there, who pays their campaign bills, and why they won’t lift a finger until the public baying on their door or are polling atrociously on a subject.

     That’s not doomsaying it’s just pointing out why get my knickers in a twist over something I really can do little about.

     I can do more about things here though, like river pollution, nitrates, farmers not fencing waterways, resource management. etc. better time spent while I wait for the mud in my back yard to dry out.
     • Robert Guyton 8.1.1

       30 June 2016 at 4:47 pm

       Every one believes themselves a realist, Richard. From your comment, I found this:
       ” get my knickers in a twist over something I really can do little about.”
       interesting. My personal approach to things I can do nothing about, is to refuse to allocate” worrying time” to them – what’s the gain?
       As to your,
       “I can do more about things here though, like river pollution, nitrates, farmers not fencing waterways, resource management. etc. ”
       all strength to your arm. I too, spend my time doing just that and know it’s worthwhile.
   • BM 8.2

     30 June 2016 at 7:17 pm

     I’m a watch and see sort of guy, then ascertain and react accordingly.
     • Robert Guyton 8.2.1

       30 June 2016 at 7:37 pm

       Like Nero.
       • BM 8.2.1.1

         30 June 2016 at 8:03 pm

         That’s the one.

         On a side note I had no idea you could eat Gunnera, very interesting video btw, you’re a bit of a natural, a tv career beckons .
         • Robert Guyton 8.2.1.1.1

           30 June 2016 at 10:15 pm

           Very kind, BM. Yes, gunnera’s very nice, as are many other not as yet well known perennials. If only there were people surreptitiously planting edible perennial vegetables throughout their neighbourhoods, in expectation of food shortages brought about through climate, political or economic disruptions 🙂
9. johnm 9

   30 June 2016 at 4:35 pm

   On a lighter note!

   Years ago used to go tramping in the Tararuas and near rivers would have those pesky sandflies zooming in for some free blood if you stood still or sat long enough.

   Yesterday I had one land on my leg in johnsonville! ( I wear shorts ) in the middle of Winter! Been round this way 35years never ever got sandflies here before. Winters are getting milder and milder.
   • Colonial Viper 9.1

     30 June 2016 at 5:26 pm

     Mother Nature is telling us that the world has changed.
10. Jenny 10

    30 June 2016 at 5:53 pm

    A post about climate change, notice Green Party, climate change ignoring, [deleted – don’t abuse authors especially with criticisms that are not correct – MS]

    Maybe he is right.

    Maybe the Green Party making “Swimmable Rivers” their “Centrepiece Environmental Campaign” rather than making Climate Change their “Centrepiece Environmental Campaign” were doing the right thing after all.

    Having somewhere nice to swim is just what the Auckland electorate needs after all this rain.

    And it is just about warm enough.

    We just need to relabel it, “Swimmable Streets Campaign”.
    • Jenny 10.1

      1 July 2016 at 4:12 am

      Funny how weka can constantly abuse and malign me as a “liar” and carry out a campaign of character assassination on absolutely no evidence.

      And all I have to say is that weka is ignoring the reality, that the Green Party have made “Swimmable Rivers” their “Centrepiece Campaign”, When the greatest environmental disaster of all time is climate change.

      Hopefully this very real situation, which weka denies and refuses to accept, will change.

      I seriously hope so.

      What I hope is that the Green Party will have a climate change campaign launch as big (or even bigger)* than their “Centrepiece Campaign” launch.

      And I hope that it happens before the election.

      What I hope that this launch is good as or even better than the climate change policy release made by the Green Party prior to the 2014 election, and that it is followed up in the election campaign.

      http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/10108920/Greens-launch-climate-change-policy

      Is this too much to ask?

      Time will tell.

      Warranting the importance of the subject,
11. Jenny 11

    30 June 2016 at 5:59 pm

    Disappointing.

    Sunday 5 June
    • 1pm Launch of a centrepiece environmental campaign by Green Party Co-leader Metiria Turei
    • photo-op and media stand-up

    “Our Plan to Change the Government”

    As many commenters are pointing out climate change is one of the Government’s worst performing portfolios.

    If the Green Party are serious about wanting to change the government they would be hammering them on this.
12. corokia 12

    30 June 2016 at 7:44 pm

    A lot of commenters here understand the dire situation we are in because of human induced climate change and ocean acidification. Quite a few announce that we are all heading rapidly down the path to total collapse of civilisation (at best) or human extinction. So they say there is no point in bothering to do anything to try to stop these horrific outcomes.

    The vast majority of people on the planet have NO IDEA that things are as serious as they are.
    I don’t know when (or even IF) our fellow citizens will be told the full details of the shit that’s coming. Hundreds of millions have such a precarious existence that they probably can’t see past the next few days or months- though they are not the ones causing most of the problem.

    But how dare those “we know it all” doomers decide that no one will want to make serious changes. WTF gives you the right to cast such judgement on your fellow human beings? Maybe if a critical mass of the world population realise how bad things are, then effective changes can be made to at least prevent some of the worse effects.

    What is wrong with trying? Some of us want to.
    • weka 12.1

      30 June 2016 at 8:16 pm

      + all of this. Thank-you corokia.

      I’m finding it very difficult and struggling to find a useful response (am biting my tongue today esp). I think that one of the things that is happening is that people are getting caught up in their own despair and we are not very well equipped to deal with such large scale threats. People have different ways of dealing with that.

      One of the things I noticed in Bill’s thread the other day was how hard it was for any of us to work together. Even those who think we should still be trying seem to find it hard to support each other and respond to what people are bringing up. We are wasting a lot of time and energy arguing over how many deck chairs there are (apologies for the Titanic analogy), instead of looking at what we can do and doing it.

      I haven’t gotten very far in my thinking on this yet, but I am considering putting up a regular CC action post, where we can talk about what we are already doing, what else can be done, looking at strategies that others are using etc. I can moderate that thread so that the conversation remains on proactive responses and doesn’t get diverted by “it’s too late”.

      It would be useful to know if anyone is interested in that.
      • corokia 12.1.1

        30 June 2016 at 8:33 pm

        I like how you put the ‘no deniers, no doomers’ on your posts on CC weka.
        There is SO much to be done and I don’t just mean as in fighting as the ship goes down.
        I remember commenting on a post a few weeks back, suggesting that having local body candidates that understand CC was important. Bill just shot me down in flames, telling me that was all shit and pointless, so I just backed off and shut up.
        • weka 12.1.1.1

          30 June 2016 at 8:42 pm

          I’m seeing a lot of that. It’s like we are all stuck in our personal need to be right and there is very little room for creative responses. I can see that some of that comes from old school activism, some of it from the culture on ts, but it’s time to change that.
        • weka 12.1.1.2

          30 June 2016 at 8:44 pm

          I agree with you about councils btw. Because whatever happens, we need people who are aware in there.
          • Robert Guyton 12.1.1.2.1

            30 June 2016 at 10:22 pm

            Publishing a regular CC post is a very worthwhile proposal, weka. I think we would soon see useful patterns develop and as yet unimagined ideas floated, and that alone would make the exercise worthwhile.
            edit – except it shouldn’t be about climate change. The discussion is bigger than that. Something about the future, I think. It’s not only climate change that threatens humankind and focusing on that issue narrows the discussion too much.
            • weka 12.1.1.2.1.1

              30 June 2016 at 10:26 pm

              Thanks, that’s what I’m thinking. At the moment too much aggravation is happening, not enough room for the creative and left field.
              • In Vino …

                30 June 2016 at 11:48 pm

                I was particularly impressed by your “we are all stuck in our personal need to be right.” Sadly true. I fear that the same blight would deal to any new site.. Is there a way of curing this disease, apart from the slow process of better education?
                (Please note that this makes me much more righter than all you other misled jumpers to wrong conclusions.. Eat that!)
      • marty mars 12.1.2

        30 June 2016 at 10:43 pm

        I think a regular post would be good. There are many people doing many things and it would be a practical way to build knowledge and ideas around resiliance, community and effective change. And it could cover the issues from a wider context – empowerment!
    • Colonial Viper 12.2

      30 June 2016 at 8:23 pm

      Resist the tide by all means. It is a spiritual and moral imperative to resist.
      • corokia 12.2.1

        30 June 2016 at 8:28 pm

        There you go again CV.
        The assumption that nothing can be done.
        YOUR assumption is that your fellow human beings don’t care and/or don’t want to change and that we are all going to be swept away on the tide.
        • BM 12.2.1.1

          30 June 2016 at 8:33 pm

          Nothing can be done to stop it, it’s completely out of your hands, you have no control.

          What you can do though is make plans on how do deal with the effects of climate change.
          • corokia 12.2.1.1.1

            30 June 2016 at 8:38 pm

            I’ve been doing that for years. Making plans for my family, physical preparations.
            But, you know what. I actually care about other people too.
            It’s totally selfish to say “can’t do anything, you might as well keep flying and consuming”.
            • BM 12.2.1.1.1.1

              30 June 2016 at 8:43 pm

              It’s totally selfish to say “can’t do anything, you might as well keep flying and consuming”.

              So you’re living a fairly low carbon existence?
              • weka …

                30 June 2016 at 8:46 pm

                I notice you’ve been asking this lately BM. There are quite a lot of regulars here who have been taking action in their personal lives, some for a long time. You just haven’t been paying attention.

                How about you tell us what you are doing?
                • BM …

                  30 June 2016 at 8:50 pm

                  Not a lot too be honest.
          • weka 12.2.1.1.2

            30 June 2016 at 8:43 pm

            “Nothing can be done to stop it, it’s completely out of your hands, you have no control.”

            So says the person with a vested interest in things not changing.
            • BM 12.2.1.1.2.1

              30 June 2016 at 8:47 pm

              You’ve got to be realistic about the situation, NZ could sink into the sea tomorrow and it wouldn’t make one iota of difference,
              • weka …

                30 June 2016 at 8:54 pm

                so says the person with a vested interest in things not changing.

                Meanwhile, those of us that care and know that it does make a difference will carry on.
                • Robert Guyton …

                  30 June 2016 at 10:35 pm

                  Let’s not argue the toss any longer about whether we should or should not do something, let’s just explore the possibilities. Once we’ve done that to a far greater extent than posts infested with naysayers allows, we’ll be better able to judge whether there’s value in our actions. Risky, perhaps – what if it becomes apparent we’re blowing bubbles? In any case, I’m up for it. In fact, it’d be unique. So far as I know, there’s no place anywhere that a discussion like that occurs – we can be the epicentre!
                  I like that.
              • corokia …

                30 June 2016 at 8:58 pm

                “NZ could sink into the sea tomorrow”
                That’s not realism.

                And yes, I have a fairly low carbon existence. Since you are in to asking personal questions, here’s one for you.
                If there is nothing we can do about climate change, WHY do you come to threads like this and comment?
                • BM …

                  30 June 2016 at 9:02 pm

                  I know climate change will be an issue going forward so it’s interesting to read other peoples view points and share my own.

                  My interest is in how we’ll deal with climate change, not so much in stopping it.
                  • weka …

                    30 June 2016 at 9:07 pm

                    “My interest is in how we’ll deal with climate change, not so much in stopping it.”

                    The problem with this statement is that it is based on the idea that CC is one thing, and that it’s fixed. That’s just not true. CC is here, now. But we can stop it getting worse. The future isn’t fixed. Which begs the question of why some people are not willing to try. Lanth is about the only person being honest about this.
                  • marty mars …

                    30 June 2016 at 10:38 pm

                    Bm you’ve just said you’re not doing much personally – what do you think people should do and why aren’t you?
13. whispering kate 13

    30 June 2016 at 9:12 pm

    As if we don’t have the real fear of climate change and rising seas and extreme weather events now the sun is losing its spots and going to cause havoc with electronics and communications and astronauts having their DNA buggered. It has happened in the past in the 16th and 17th centuries and caused a mini ice age which froze the Thames solid. I can remember reading about those extreme events in the past but didn’t know it was caused by the sun losing its spots.

    Interesting times for us all but I have always thought that its not the Planet which has any problems, it will sort its self out, its us poor venal ignorant inhabitants who have wrecked the place in little more than 100 years.

    http://www.news.com.au/technology/science/space/the-sun-has-gone-blank-twice-this-month-this-is-what-it-means/news-story/d775ecf894ab68415ed0108ced31a4e2
14. Lloyd 14

    30 June 2016 at 11:12 pm

    Good to see Rodney Hyde has changed his stance on global warming and has admitted that it is occurring.

    Yeah right.
15. Lloyd 15

    30 June 2016 at 11:14 pm

    Since the ocean will almost certainly rise at least two metres in the next 100 years, is there now a discount on beach front properties?

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