Another interesting poll?

Written By: - Date published: 6:30 pm, June 13th, 2011 - 9 comments
Categories: by-election, polls - Tags: , ,

Could be worth watching Native Affairs on Maori television tonight at 8:30. The Te Tai Tokerau candidates will be debating and it appears there may also be a very interesting poll result in the offing. The Herald’s story today based on a different sort of poll is headlined “Voters back Harawira, but only by a whisker.” This race could be the most interesting by-election in quite some time. It could go down to the wire.

[Update: Hone 41, Kelvin 40 link – Bunji]

9 comments on “Another interesting poll?”

  1. ianmac 1

    I think that poll was for only of 57 people on the street wasn’t it?
    Just the same there are some excellent interviews on Native Affairs. Julian asks the questions and politely and effectively persues the answers. Depends on who is up for interview.

    • ianmac 1.1

      Oops. Yes it was a 500+ poll. Does look to be a two horse race. Hone V Kelvin.Though of course the telephone poll in a depressed area on landline might be very deceptive. A bit wooden but far better than some panels on MSM last election.

      • Bunji 1.1.1

        Herald’s poll was a bit farcical, but 500+ in an electorate is pretty thorough from Native Affairs.

        Hone might be in trouble – Maori Party voters may now see it’s a lost cause, and who will they back?

  2. tc 2

    A good chance to see if the MP candidate has been media schooled yet….I saw him on Te karere and OMG someone needs to tell him the media need to be worked with not worked over…FAIL.

  3. R 3

    thanks for the heads-up, was defo worth watching (for a non-TV-watcher).

    My thoughts:
    Hone *mastered* every chance he got to speak, especially when engaging with the people;
    Kelvin’s introduction was impressive (Te Reo 101?) then after that he parroted from his cue-cards and failed miserably to respond throughout with any kind of substance, it became embarrassing;
    then…
    I just felt uncomfortable on Mr Tipene’s behalf, as a clear non-contender.

    I’d be interested to hear what people in the audience thought…

  4. lprent 4

    From the Advocate:

    The poll, of 508 people, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 per cent and when asked which candidate they would vote for 41 per cent said Mr Harawira and 40 per cent Mr Davis.

    Maori Party candidate Solomon Tipene got 15 per cent support while the other two candidates – Kelvyn Alp of the OURNZ Party and Maki Herbert for Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party – each polled 1 per cent. “Other” candidates, of which there are none, got 2 per cent support.

    The poll was about 1.7% of the electorate (which was just over 30k enrolled voters). Problem is that it would have been a land line poll and there
    are maybe 45% land lines to the voters in the electorate.

    Godfrey at Maui Street had this to say last week:-

    Another common argument that comes up re Kelvin’ ability to win is Labour’s ability to run get out the vote (GOTV) campaigns. Get out the vote campaigns are less effective in Maori electorates. Maori are disengaged and many Maori, especially in the far North and western side of the Tai Tokerau (not including West Auckland) do not have landlines. The spread of Maori electorates also makes it harder to out people on the streets. Unlike in general electorates it is impossible to have activists on every corner. Ultimately, getting Maori to the ballot booth will take far more than a few phone calls and pamphlets. Maori in the North will vote for the person they believe in. Not the party that called them on election day. Sure, Labour can focus on mobilising Labour voters only, but I tend to think the staunch Labour vote is shallow and Hone’s is deep, but, admittedly, apathetic.

    He is partially right. I’ve worked in concentrated general electorates all of the time – mostly with the largest numbers of bodies available. We don’t have the people power to have people on every corner. It has always been a matter about how to expend scarce resources as effectively as possible.

    Just over a third of the electorate live around Auckland (seems strange to calculate things by postal code 🙂 ) and they are quite erratic voters compated to the rest of the electorate. Which are of course the best ones to hit with GOTV campaigns. By-elections are quite different beasts to general elections. GOTV gets a markedly more effective becuase the turnout tends to be so damn low.

    But it will be more of a personality and candidate face election then the type that I like (from my MBA/operations background I tend to prefer allocation of scarce resources campaigns). It looks to me like the candidate campaign should hit the small towns in the north with a couple of bigger meets around Auckland. But the biggest GOTV effort should target around certain Auckland suburbs plus a phone campaign.

    Problem is that I’m never that sure how much previous canvassing info has been retained. Lack of it tends to constrain GOTV campaigns and even meet the people ons as well. Hopefully this by-election will allow the accumulation of more. Even if Hone gets more people out, then there is always the election in 5 months or so. If Labour wins, then more data will help a lot in a general election when there are less volunteers available.

    • Agreed Lynn. The voters are concentrated around the West though and I suspect the turnout will be that low that a turnout effort out west could win it. Expect also the Maori Party vote to collapse and go Labour’s way.

      Go Kelvin!

  5. salamander 5

    Kelvin for PM !

  6. North 6

    Indeed it is “down to the wire”.

    That poll was conducted over the land lines. That is “the wire”.

    As one who is obliged by his calling to collect literally hundreds of phone numbers I can tell you completely earnestly that cellphone is the preferred way. I estimate that 6 out of 7 in Tai Tokerau don’t have land lines. This is borne out by the following: go through the electroral roll in Tai Tokerau…….go though the phone book. You’d think you’re in Townsville given the hit rate.

    Real opinion can be found via “the wireless”. The cellphone rules. It costs only 20 bucks to get hooked up. The media nevertheless likes to parade these “polls” knowing full well that they’re dodgy. Thing is it’s incumbent on any self respecting media jerk, eg. a visual media jerk like Julian Wilcox, to “look like” they’re possessed of an absoluteness.

    Who gives a stuff that the sample is questionable (as they know), as long as they have a “plank” to spring from. At least that old thespian dog Holmes has the honesty to come across from time to time like the fuckwit he truly is.

    Thank Christ for the Fourth Estate but Jesus, their vanity and their disaffection from
    common realities is a trifle worrying.

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