Between what we want and what we need

Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, August 19th, 2016 - 122 comments
Categories: christchurch earthquake, class war, economy, employment, john key, national, national/act government, same old national - Tags:

Why is New Zealand saying it’s slowly losing confidence in National? It’s not high childhood poverty, suicide, jailing, obesity, or domestic violence; we’ve had high levels of all of that for decades.

By a whole bunch of measures, New Zealand is fine. Apparently, only 6% of us who really want a job don’t have one.

Overall that’s pretty good. Sucks if you’re young, brown, and under-educated, but it has for a while.

Not as many people own houses, but then, it’s been tracking like that for a while. Same for voting and democratic participation. Hardly just this government’s fault.

The climate’s getting silly, but y’know, the climate always did suck here truth be told.

Depending on whether you believe the Economist August 2016 or the Mercer Management Survey 2014, Auckland is either 8th or 5th best city in the world.

According to the Legatum Institute, New Zealand has the 5th best government in the world after Switzerland in 2015 (evaluation categories included economy, entrepeneurship and economy, governance, education, health, safety and security, personal freedom, and social capital).

Choke on your Weetbix!

In crime, just to pull out safety and security for a moment, Police stats for all crime types are about the same as they were four years ago.

According to the long-running UMR Mood of the Nation survey, the February 2016 results are still pretty good. We still expect things to get better, nearly 60% think we’re going in the right direction, and we still expect living standards to continue improving. Not as bullish as previous years, but still pretty good.

We still win Rugby World Cups, get Olympic medals, produce good movies, and tonnes of people want to visit, permanently settle, or not leave. The economy trucks on, despite being brittle and spatially uneven, unproductive and dumb-reliant on commodities, cheap tourism and construction. Deep into their third term, those are collectively good results.

Since all of those benchmarks as a collective can’t be wrong (and yes they all have statistical holes), why are we slowly sliding away from this government?

It’s not like they’re not trying. They are reforming the entire social welfare system, education funding system, local government sector, RMA, and a bunch of others. They are fully interventionist in cities and in housing like we’ve not seen a National government in decades. Sure they’re incoherent in policy terms, but they’re well led, well funded, reshuffled, and still politically coherent. So what gives, you ungrateful wretches?

The first is that people can see government operating at their limits and it’s just not enough. Interest rates from our independent Reserve Bank are a spent economic instrument both here and the world over. They’re rebuilding Christchurch with dumptrucks of debt, but the stimulus no longer registers. The tax cuts are a distant memory.

It’s not enough.

The essence of New Zealand comes from class mobility. And that’s leaving us. A little-read 2014 Treasury piece says it used to be not too bad on average:

It found evidence of large increases from those who started off at the bottom, and stability or decline in those at the highest income group.

The difference to now is you can grind up the income ladder, but if you don’t control appreciating equity in an asset (i.e. a house), you’re a rat on a treadmill.

This, I think, is why we can still feel good and look good globally on so many levels, still have job growth, and yet lose our mojo with the government. Despite income mobility only corroding slowly, the broad housing crisis sees our future evaporate in front of us. The combination has hit almost the whole of society at different strata at once and we are getting more afraid for our station in life.

Subsidised by Working for Families, NZSuper, free healthcare and strong employment, the broad middle were on a stable if slowly sinking platform for decades. But it’s the accelerated sinking that’s really starting to hit.

Housing ownership is now confirmed middle-class chimaera, and that matters in a fading-kiwi-dream way.

There’s an “it’s the vibe” thing missing. I think it’s New Zealand.

I don’t mean a collective nostalgia for an all pervasive state. But the goodies that were bankable out of this lot, have been banked. Those who were going to be in Kiwisaver, are. Those who can get a first or second mortgage, have. Those who can buy a new car, are still the very few and the fleets. Those who could get out of poverty, have.

Too many people are feeling stuck while the future accelerates away from them and their children. And there’s not enough out there in the world now for them to try something better and just leave.

I think we are very slowly getting more intelligent about this government. It’s slow, but it’s trending.

122 comments on “Between what we want and what we need ”

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  1. Nck 1
    19 August 2016 at 8:27 am

    Emporers New Clothes….. People slowly realizing ShonKey is a complete Bullshit artist.

    • b waghorn 1.1
      19 August 2016 at 9:28 am

      People have always known he’s dodgy , but he has money and they aspire to have money at all costs ,so being dodgy in there mind is not a fault.
      The average right winger thinks you’re weak if you aren’t willing to shaft the next person for a $ .

  2. The lost sheep 2
    19 August 2016 at 9:05 am

    Given how rare it is for a Government to achieve a fourth term, and (according to the consensus on this blog) how bad the current Govt. is, surely the question is this…..

    Why has the loss of support for this Govt. been so slow, and why do they still retain such a high level of support this far along their third term?

    Why has the Opposition made such slow and insignificant inroads into that support?

    Just a theory, but if this Govt. is so obviously inept, don’t the above trends indicate the Left is doing a piss poor job of convincing voters they would be a better option?

    • vto 2.1
      19 August 2016 at 9:31 am

      its all about the house prices aint it

      • The lost sheep 2.1.1
        19 August 2016 at 9:56 am

        On that basis, and by the link quoted in post above, over the last year and a half House prices have lost National 1% support.

        Again, isn’t this much slower than would be expected if things are so bad, and other Parties had convincing alternatives on offer?

      • Ad 2.1.2
        19 August 2016 at 10:17 am

        That and rent.

        Marx understood it first!

    • Puckish Rogue 2.2
      19 August 2016 at 9:49 am

      “Why has the loss of support for this Govt. been so slow, and why do they still retain such a high level of support this far along their third term?”

      At the risk of bringing down the ire of the commentators I’d say its because National aren’t doing as bad a job of running the country that the commentators on here think they are

      “Why has the Opposition made such slow and insignificant inroads into that support?”

      If I was going to make a cheap shot I’d say the answer is to look at the opposition but really it goes back to the voting public don’t think National are doing that bad a job, that what gets the left up in arms isn’t what the general public think is that important

      There also worrying signs (worrying if you’re on the left) that Labour and Little are falling into the same trap as under Cunliffe

      What I mean by that when National is about to be on the ropes someone in Labour or in the left in general comes along and opens their mouth and ruins all the good work

      It happened under Cunliffe and now its happening under Little, eg National under pressure so lets have Metiria talk about dropping house prices 40%, National under pressure lets have Little say we’ll have a referendum on weed but the next day say I didn’t say it etc etc

      • BM 2.2.1
        19 August 2016 at 10:02 am

        I think the voter prefers the more hands off, only get involved when necessary, managerial approach of National to the more intrusive sticky beak, know all approach of Greenbour.

        It’s my belief most people would prefer less government in their lives,than more, nothing worse than being micro-managed.

        • ScottGN 2.2.1.1
          19 August 2016 at 10:18 am

          I think that voters in Hawkes Bay would be rather keen on more government involvement right now.

        • framu 2.2.1.2
          19 August 2016 at 10:18 am

          but do we have less govt so far? –

          considering that theres been massive re-centralisation under joyce, a massive reliance on outsourcing/consultants and that nat/lab arent really that different i would say the idea of “less govt” is a mirage.

          and why just the other day they announced a new childrens ministry with an even bigger and more intrusive mandate than CYFs ever had – thats getting kinda nanny state

          sounds like your making an authoritarian/libertarian argument more than a left/right argument – theres plenty of authoritarians across the spectrum

          • BM 2.2.1.2.1
            19 August 2016 at 10:25 am

            I see that as more about making the public service more efficient and effective than an increase in the Nanny state.

            Having said that John Key is starting to be called Helen Key in some quarters, so he’s probably right there on the edge.

            Probably needs to be a bit careful.

            • framu 2.2.1.2.1.1
              19 August 2016 at 12:32 pm

              “I see that as more about making the public service more efficient and effective than an increase in the Nanny state.”

              ke? – are you talking joyces work of the CYFs overhaul?

            • b waghorn 2.2.1.2.1.2
              19 August 2016 at 12:44 pm

              Can you imagine what the press would have done to Clarke if her government had of put worm farming on the dangerous jobs list.

            • North 2.2.1.2.1.3
              19 August 2016 at 11:40 pm

              Are you Hooton’s imaginary friend BM ?

      • framu 2.2.2
        19 August 2016 at 10:20 am

        “At the risk of bringing down the ire of the commentators I’d say its because National aren’t doing as bad a job of running the country that the commentators on here think they are ”

        i would say that reality isnt a factor and its all about appearance

        • Puckish Rogue 2.2.2.1
          19 August 2016 at 10:42 am

          I agree with you, perception is what matters (in reference to getting elected I mean) if the majority of the voters think Nationals doing a good job then they’re doing a good job, right or wrongly

          As Mike Moore put it: “The voters are always right, even when they’re wrong.”

          • Ad 2.2.2.1.1
            19 August 2016 at 11:17 am

            I think public mood has got to the point that facial expressions just aren’t enough anymore.

            • Puckish Rogue 2.2.2.1.1.1
              19 August 2016 at 11:21 am

              You hope you mean, It’ll be close and it’ll probably involve Winston but John Key will still be PM after the next election

              • Ad …
                19 August 2016 at 11:42 am

                Labour-Greens coalition are not going to have any problem.
                National just ran out of friends.

                Housing and rentals are just driving a nice slow wooden stake through National’s heart.

                And it’s great to watch in slomo. Far more satisfying.

                • Puckish Rogue …
                  19 August 2016 at 11:53 am

                  I don’t think you realise that people with homes ackshully like their house prices rising

                  • Ad …
                    19 August 2016 at 12:10 pm

                    As an owner of multiple homes, I assure you I do.

                    But watch that poll tracking; National currently tracks down at pretty much the same rate as the housing ownership rate is dropping, and it’s not a coincidence.

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      19 August 2016 at 1:25 pm

                      You own multiple house, then you are one of the reasons we’re in this mess, you only need one house to live so you should donate the others to needy families, if you don’t then you’re tory scum 🙂

                    • Ad []
                      19 August 2016 at 3:00 pm

                      Try harder.
                      Really try this time.

              • Stuart Munro …
                19 August 2016 at 11:47 am

                Not unless he uses the army. But he wouldn’t have a problem with that. And neither would you.

                • Puckish Rogue …
                  19 August 2016 at 11:54 am

                  What exactly are you suggesting?

                  • McFlock …
                    19 August 2016 at 12:02 pm

                    Seems pretty obvious to me:

                    1) your predictions of Key legitimately winning a fourth term are overly bold; and
                    2) both Key and yourself are closet totalitarians who have no problem grasping onto power by any means fair or foul.

                    Fortunately I think NZ has strong enough mechanisms in place to keep your behaviour within walking distance of legitimate (albeit with with a copious level of lying, sockpuppet agitators, backroom deals, coincidental taxpayer contracts to party donors, artificially-constrained terms of reference, arbitrary replacement of local populations’ elected officials, and so on).

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      19 August 2016 at 12:29 pm

                      1. I don’t think its overally bold, in fact its quite conservative

                      Winston has always said his preference is to go with the largest party, he’d also prefer two parties to multiple parties, his party is center but certainly with a large amount of older, conservative types, some of his demands would be easily accepted by National (immigration, more police)

                      Of course there are reasons he could go left but no its not a bold prediction

                      2. Lets not let our emotions run too far eh, armed insurrection to keep john Key in power is just a tad over the top don’t you think

                    • McFlock …
                      19 August 2016 at 12:35 pm

                      Saying a tory coup d’etat is imminent would be over the top.

                      But I genuinely don’t get the impression you’d be too worried about it as long as your side was the one with the guns. Probably be commenting “well you lot should have gotten guns as well, don’t blame us for playing the game better”, or trying to spin “Labour did it too” somehow. Shortly before TS is shut down by the new regime, of course.

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      19 August 2016 at 1:21 pm

                      “But I genuinely don’t get the impression you’d be too worried about it as long as your side was the one with the guns”

                      Well then you have to accept that your impression is wrong, as someone that was involved in one of the deployments to East Timor I can assure you its something I would not like to see happen here

                      I’d that suggest that some of you have been reading too much Smiths Dream for your own good

                    • McFlock …
                      19 August 2016 at 1:23 pm

                      Dunno about Smith’s Dream.

                      I’m simply going on the fact that you’ve defended every scummy and corrupt thing that this government has done so far. I’m glad you think there might be some limit to your Nact apologism, but frankly I’ll believe it only when I see it.

                      edit: OH! Sleeping Dogs! (Google is my friend 🙂 )

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      19 August 2016 at 1:35 pm

                      “I’m simply going on the fact that you’ve defended every scummy and corrupt thing that this government has done so far. I’m glad you think there might be some limit to your Nact apologism, but frankly I’ll believe it only when I see it.”

                      Every scummy and corrupt this government is what every government has done since, well since governments have been around.

                      The next government will be just as corrupt and just as scummy as this one.

                      Its not defending the government its being realistic about what a government can do and this country is heading in the right direction for the majority of people.

                      It’d be nice for NZ to be like “the good old days” but unless you can convince another country to buy everything we produce its not going to happen.

                      Its called making the best out of the situation, the majority of the voting public know and understand this but the left do not.

                    • b waghorn …
                      19 August 2016 at 1:41 pm

                      pr your full of it . what this government has been great at ,is convincing people that this is as good as it gets, while the whole time all the problems that nz faces are getting worse , it,s pathetic that we accept this low bar bullshit from our so called leaders.

                    • McFlock …
                      19 August 2016 at 1:48 pm

                      Every scummy and corrupt this government is what every government has done since, well since governments have been around.

                      The next government will be just as corrupt and just as scummy as this one.

                      As I said, that’s one of your two standard lines. But it’s just not true – what previous governments have had relationships such as outlined in Dirty Politics? What other governments have bypassed the democratic process by ramming through the same number of bills under “urgency”? What other PM has waivered between “can’t remember” and “not bothered” as an answer to most questions? What other PM has had to correct a straight (albeit false) answer in the House to “I can’t remember”? Which other government has interfered in local body politics to this extreme?

                      this country is heading in the right direction for the majority of people.

                      Well, the majority of people who are deemed to count, anyway.

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      19 August 2016 at 2:12 pm

                      As I said, that’s one of your two standard lines. But it’s just not true – what previous governments have had relationships such as outlined in Dirty Politics? What other governments have bypassed the democratic process by ramming through the same number of bills under “urgency”? What other PM has waivered between “can’t remember” and “not bothered” as an answer to most questions? What other PM has had to correct a straight (albeit false) answer in the House to “I can’t remember”? Which other government has interfered in local body politics to this extreme?

                      Depends on what you define as “Dirty Politics”, does “by definition I cannot leak” count, does the attacks on Erin Leigh count?, how about the only MP done for corruption, does that count?

                      How about the sell off of NZs assets as a breach of trust, on a scale that even National hasn’t done?

                    • Muttonbird …
                      19 August 2016 at 3:05 pm

                      It might surprise some commenters there is a considerable distance between National and Peters on immigration.

                    • McFlock …
                      19 August 2016 at 3:15 pm

                      Of course they count.

                      But for most NZ governments such behaviour was an exception. With this one it’s routine. Lab4 and Muldoon were pretty bad.

                      But to argue some sort of equivalence between this government and “every other government” is frankly the flipside of arguing that a military coup is imminent.

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      19 August 2016 at 3:15 pm

                      “It might surprise some commenters there is a considerable distance between National and Peters on immigration.”

                      I’m hoping that’s one of the things National will change on

                    • Muttonbird …
                      19 August 2016 at 3:54 pm

                      ^

                      And risk the housing bubble? You can hope, but it isn’t going to happen under this government.

                      Add to that the even wider gulf between National and Peters on unrestricted foreign investment in housing, which National are even less likely to budge on, and I’d say the chances of Peters going into government with Key next year remote.

                  • Stuart Munro …
                    19 August 2016 at 12:04 pm

                    That a government that destroys media neutrality and the integrity of public statistics to retain power won’t stop at much. That it deploys its own Lord Haw Haw (that’s you, PR) should be a clue as to what slippery slope they’re zooming down.

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      19 August 2016 at 12:24 pm

                      Normally when someone says something on here they need to back it up with proof however I feel confident in saying that you’re an idiot if you seriously think that

                      A. John Key would order the army to take over NZ if he lost the election
                      B. The army would listen
                      C. The army actually could defeat the combined air force, navy and police forces
                      D. I’d be ok with all that

                      You’ve said some really dumb things in the past but this would have to be your crowning achievement

                      Well done

                    • Stuart Munro …
                      19 August 2016 at 12:38 pm

                      Trashier than your usual rubbish PR.

                      A) There’s not much Key wouldn’t do.
                      B) The NZ army usually follow orders.
                      C) What makes you think they’d have to fight other services?
                      D) Having defended everything Key has ever done you expect us to believe that you would suddenly develop scruples? Laughable.

                    • The lost sheep …
                      19 August 2016 at 12:59 pm

                      Occam’s Razor.

                      National would stage a military take over, or, Stuart is an idiot?

                    • Stuart Munro …
                      19 August 2016 at 1:23 pm

                      Given the sudden extension of SIS powers – the Gnats abuse state spying capacity to retain power and the Lost Sheep approves.

                    • The lost sheep …
                      19 August 2016 at 1:43 pm

                      I didn’t say i approved of those things Stuart. Just testing your theories by applying the age old test of logic.

                      Which is more likely?
                      A NZ Govt. would or could stage a Military takeover.
                      or
                      You are a highly deluded conspiracy theorist?

                      I reckon any sane person who had to put their house on it would be backing the latter.

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      19 August 2016 at 1:44 pm

                      A) There’s not much Key wouldn’t do.

                      Can you give any evidence that even slightly suggests he would order the army to mount a coup? (You muppet)

                      B) The NZ army usually follow orders.

                      Every service person knows that they can and should disobey an illegal command and yes they’d know that staging a coup would be an illegal act (You muppet)

                      C) What makes you think they’d have to fight other services?

                      You said army, I highly doubt the Navy, Air Force and Police will sit on their thumbs and do nothing (you muppet)

                      D) Having defended everything Key has ever done you expect us to believe that you would suddenly develop scruples?

                      Yes how silly to think I’d condone a military coup against my fellow kiwis (you muppet)

                      Laughable

                      Yes, yes you are.

                    • Stuart Munro …
                      19 August 2016 at 1:54 pm

                      PR – you devote almost all your spare time to repressing the people who genuinely want a better New Zealand, it is reasonable to conclude that your preferences are right authoritarian – and your grandstanding is full of winning ugly parables about the ‘inevitable’ triumph of this loathsome and unaccountable despot.

                      Quelle honte.

                    • The lost sheep …
                      19 August 2016 at 1:55 pm

                      And when the voting public hear the increasing chorus of severely deluded conspiracy theory shit from people identifying themselves as Left Wing…it must do wonders for the Left Wing poll ratings. (sarc)

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      19 August 2016 at 2:06 pm

                      PR – you devote almost all your spare time to repressing the people who genuinely want a better New Zealand, it is reasonable to conclude that your preferences are right authoritarian – and your grandstanding is full of winning ugly parables about the ‘inevitable’ triumph of this loathsome and unaccountable despot.

                      Basically you’re pissy that people keep voting John Key in and not a left-wing block

                    • Stuart Munro …
                      19 August 2016 at 2:13 pm

                      No – PR – he disenfranchises people.

                      He cheats. You love that he cheats because you’re also corrupt.

                      No mystery – only disgrace.

                    • Reddelusion []
                      19 August 2016 at 4:47 pm

                      Stuart has gone well beyond conspiracy theory, now in the psychotic ranting sphere

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      19 August 2016 at 2:34 pm

                      “No – PR – he disenfranchises people.”

                      He also empowers others

                      “He cheats. You love that he cheats because you’re also corrupt.”

                      No but I love that NZ is one of the best countries in the world to live in, is heading in the right direction and that we’re one of the countries most of the rest of the world envy

                      “No mystery – only disgrace”

                      Whats it like sucking on a lemon all day?

                    • Reddelusion []
                      19 August 2016 at 4:50 pm

                      Also with Auckland as one of the worlds most liveable cities, pretty impressive to achieve this while at the same time been in Jk neoliberal hell hole as Paul reminds us every day

                    • b waghorn …
                      19 August 2016 at 2:39 pm

                      Pr there you go with the heading in the right direction shit ,by every international measure i’ve seen in recent years we are sliding backwards, at best no change in poverty levels , people living in pain because they cant get treatment the list is endless, most managers would get the sack with that sort of performance.

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      19 August 2016 at 3:01 pm

                      “Pr there you go with the heading in the right direction shit ,by every international measure i’ve seen in recent years we are sliding backwards, at best no change in poverty levels , people living in pain because they cant get treatment the list is endless, most managers would get the sack with that sort of performance.”

                      Yet the polls say the majority believe we’re going in the right direction so maybe theres a disconnect between the left and the voters?

                      However in regards to your comment about being sacked John Key has had three job interviews so far and the public have given him the job each time

                    • stunned mullet …
                      19 August 2016 at 8:54 pm

                      Stuart munro doing the impossible, making Draco T B appear a reasoned and sensible contributor to the Standard in comparison to his brain burps of today.

                      i suppose at least it’s a step up for his repetitive and boring calls for Key and his cohorts to be the victims of violence.

                    • Stuart Munro …
                      21 August 2016 at 2:22 am

                      if people are judged by the quality of their enemies, we at the Standard are badly let down – what a pack of SAMFs.

                  • Anno1701 …
                    19 August 2016 at 4:46 pm

                    “as someone that was involved in one of the deployments to East Timor”

                    which regiment ?

    • mosa 2.3
      19 August 2016 at 12:53 pm

      As Bill Clinton said it’s the economy stupid !

    • Siobhan 2.4
      19 August 2016 at 2:44 pm

      Well, to be fair, we do not have a true ‘Left’ Party anymore.

      And when it comes to a fight between two Centrist Parties voting tends to come down to a popularity contest between Leaders.
      And in that situation it would seem that John Keys’ ability to make money and damn the consequences; his total ambivalence about ethics and not acknowledging the helping hands he received as a youngster… would seem to appeal to a good half of Voters.

      I’ve seen the likes of Stuart Nash, and so called Labourites on The Standard, crowing about how badly Corbyn and the ‘True Left’ vision of politics is doing in the UK, which, for starters is factually incorrect; but which also tells me our own Labour Party is a long long way from inspiring a new wave of voters.

      If Labour gets in, it will be by the skin of their teeth.

      And even then, probably only because the National voters of Havelock North sulk about the National Parties betrayal, after all they voted for poor water standards for down the road..they didn’t think it would affect them personally. Though, on second thoughts I wonder if people ever really connect the dots that way??

      • Garibaldi 2.4.1
        19 August 2016 at 4:43 pm

        Good comment Siobahn. To everyone else…. please stop feeding the trolls.

        • Anne 2.4.1.1
          19 August 2016 at 6:53 pm

          They can’t help themselves Garibaldi and in doing so, they lose worthy and thoughtful comments because people can’t be bothered wading through the crap and ‘change channels’ – something of which the dedicated Standrad tr**ls are only too well aware.

  3. Puckish Rogue 3
    19 August 2016 at 9:07 am

    Well after three successive governments its no surprise that Nationals slipping in the polls but don’t worry National will hang on until 2020

    Yes there as many valid reasons why Winston could swing left as there is right (and I’m sure we could all out them down here) but my view is he’ll swing left

    • ScottGN 3.1
      19 August 2016 at 9:30 am

      If Winston’s goes left then National won’t hang on until 2020.

      • Puckish Rogue 3.1.1
        19 August 2016 at 9:39 am

        Yes of course that’s always a possibility

        • mosa 3.1.1.1
          19 August 2016 at 12:58 pm

          National hanging on but what about Dunne Seymour and the Maoris ?
          Key will hang on at all costs even with a lost majority.

          • Puckish Rogue 3.1.1.1.1
            19 August 2016 at 1:14 pm

            Well I think if National need Winston then its gone burgers for everyone else, I don’t think Winston wants to play with others…Act might be allowed to play in the sandbox but I wouldn’t put money on it

            • Leftie 3.1.1.1.1.1
              19 August 2016 at 1:51 pm

              But Puckish Rogue, Winston hasn’t forgotten what John key and the National party did, that bridge hasn’t been mended. Key has wanted Winston for quite some time now, but Winston doesn’t appear to be interested. During the 2014 election campaign Winston Peter’s said he was approached and asked if he would support National if John key was no longer around. It does appear that National would throw even John Key under a bus if need be, doesn’t it? but in any event, I can’t see Winston supporting the Nats, he hasn’t in almost 20 years, and last time he apologized for it back in 98′. Interestingly, Winston Peters said it was the most easiest time he had ever had working with the Labour government last time, and I don’t think the Greens are an issue with him anymore either, he appears to have softened in that regard.

              • Puckish Rogue …
                19 August 2016 at 2:17 pm

                “But Puckish Rogue, Winston hasn’t forgotten what John key and the National party did, that bridge hasn’t been mended.”

                This is true but I’m sure a knighthood, deputy PM and/or Foreign Affairs topped of with stint at NZ house in London would salve over past hurts plus if Winston wants revenge he can get all that plus make Key dance to his tune as well

                “Key has wanted Winston for quite some time now, but Winston doesn’t appear to be interested. During the 2014 election campaign Winston Peter’s said he was approached and asked if he would support National if John key was no longer around. It does appear that National would throw even John Key under a bus if need be, doesn’t it?”

                What Winston says before an election and what he says after are too different things, remember how he was going to go with Labour and then didn’t?

                “but in any event, I can’t see Winston supporting the Nats, he hasn’t in almost 20 years, and last time he apologized for it back in 98′. Interestingly, Winston Peters said it was the most easiest time he had ever had working with the Labour government last time, and I don’t think the Greens are an issue with him anymore either, he appears to have softened in that regard.”

                You hope he has and you may well be right (its Winston so no one can predict what he’ll do) but I feel his support base, older, conservative and some rural types are more of a fit with National then with Labour

                Plus it’ll come down to a negotiation and lolly scramble and who do you think is a better negotiator John Key or Andrew Little, the ex-wall street money trader or the ex-union official?

                but as I say, its Winston so I think its 60-40 he’ll swing to National

                • Leftie …
                  19 August 2016 at 2:36 pm

                  “What Winston says before an election and what he says after are too different things, remember how he was going to go with Labour and then didn’t?”

                  No. Remind me of this please, Puckish Rogue.

                  As Andrew Little has pointed out, NZ First, in many respects, is on the same page as Labour.

                  In fact, IMO I see Labour, Greens and NZ First on the same page on a number of important issues, and don’t see any reason why they can’t work together, because I think they can for the common good.

                  I feel that you are underestimating Andrew Little’s negotiating powers Puckish Rogue. John key is not much of a negotiator by any stretch of the imagination, and he and his regime is tired, stale, way too dirty and can offer nothing new. I seriously doubt Winston Peter’s can be so easily bought off by John key. I don’t think the public can be either.

      • Leftie 3.1.2
        19 August 2016 at 1:52 pm

        Very true ScottGN

    • Leftie 3.2
      19 August 2016 at 1:54 pm

      Then you know National are goneburgers Puckish Rogue. Dirty politics can’t keep the criminal Nats in power for much longer anyway.

      • Puckish Rogue 3.2.1
        19 August 2016 at 2:27 pm

        I agree, every government runs out of steam and its no different for National, the only thing we disagree on is the time frame, you think 2017 I think 2020

        • Leftie 3.2.1.1
          21 August 2016 at 1:52 am

          I don’t think dirty politics and so many Kiwis bearing the brunt of National’s living nightmare will allow the Nats to cling to power for that long Puckish Rogue. Unless you think John key can get away with abusing his position of office again, that is.

  4. save nz 4
    19 August 2016 at 10:13 am

    Good post Ad.

    The best thing the opposition to do (apart from be very careful announcing taxation policy) is to encourage people to vote.

    There needs to be a campaign to encourage every voter to make sure 5 of their friends gets to vote too.

    Poverty action and Beneficiary groups need to get active and (like in the US to get Obama in), drive people to the voting booths to vote. Encourage people to register to vote, etc etc.

    Labour needs to appeal to the 65% middle class home owners & families, NZ First need to appeal to the rural, elderly and those that want to send the Natz a message, Greens need to get the environmental voters and those that want social changes… They need to try not to cannibalise each others votes, but to suck the votes out of the disenchanted Natz voters.

    The opposition need to campaign under the banner Change the government!!

    Many people know that National are bad and making bad choices for the country, it is capturing that in an election campaign to galvanise people to vote.

    • Ad 4.1
      19 August 2016 at 10:18 am

      Yup agree with that.

    • BM 4.2
      19 August 2016 at 10:19 am

      What would also help is if Andrew Little didn’t look like he is going to punch the next person he sees in the face.

      More smiling and less scowling would do wonders for the man.

      • Matthew Whitehead 4.2.1
        19 August 2016 at 10:28 am

        And Key looks like a smarmy schoolyard bully, but he’s still pretty popular.

        No, Little’s problem isn’t his expressions, it’s that he permanently sounds like he’s reading a teleprompter.

        • Puckish Rogue 4.2.1.1
          19 August 2016 at 10:46 am

          “And Key looks like a smarmy schoolyard bully, but he’s still pretty popular.”

          The issue is though (and I can’t believe I have to point it out) that John Key has been the PM since 2008 which means his looks are either working for him or, at the very least, not working against him

          Little however always looks…well like Little

          • Matthew Whitehead 4.2.1.1.1
            20 August 2016 at 12:22 pm

            My point is that (at least for male politicians) nobody really cares too much about how they look so long as they’re presentable. It’s much more relevant that they’re engaging and persuasive, which Little… isn’t. But hey, Labour’s right wing has successfully eliminated Cunliffe, so I guess we need to tolerate him.

      • AB 4.2.2
        19 August 2016 at 10:36 am

        Yep – maybe Andrew should confine himself to punching only that guy who keeps smiling and waving to distract everyone while his cronies pick their pockets?

      • Ad 4.2.3
        19 August 2016 at 11:19 am

        Try addressing something of the substance in the post.
        There’s a fair few links there for you to get into.
        Step it up BM.

        • The lost sheep 4.2.3.1
          19 August 2016 at 11:58 am

          Something of substance.

          A co-ordinated, coherent and compelling Left Wing vision of exactly how The Left would cure all of our issues, while at the same time not eroding the qualities that current Govt. supporters value.
          Presented positively with humour, intelligence, and unshakeable confidence by 3-4 leaders of genuine charisma.
          That would be substantial?

          As I say, given the supposedly horrific situation the country is in, the alleged despair of so many voters, the superior intelligence of the Left, and the self-evident truth of Left Wing Philosophy…
          I just don’t understand why the Left is doing such a crap job at selling their far superior option?

          Maybe a good hard look in the mirror is called for. Start focusing on what the Left is doing wrong, rather than obsessing about what the Right is up to?

          • Ad 4.2.3.1.1
            19 August 2016 at 12:13 pm

            The broad opposition could sit back and do stuff all and National would still lose. That home+rent meme is …..the sound of inevitability.

            • Puckish Rogue 4.2.3.1.1.1
              19 August 2016 at 12:18 pm

              🙂

            • The lost sheep 4.2.3.1.1.2
              19 August 2016 at 12:19 pm

              The broad opposition could sit back and do stuff all

              That does look like their plan AD.
              Just wonder if after clinging to that for 8 years without making much ground, it might be time to try something else?

              • Ad …
                19 August 2016 at 1:29 pm

                Current plan looks fine

                • The lost sheep …
                  19 August 2016 at 1:50 pm

                  At 1% every 18 months it ain’t going to be fast enough sorry AD.
                  Deep sigh. But at least you get the bonus of being able to keep reveling in that delicious slo mo decline for a further 3 years.

                  • Ad …
                    19 August 2016 at 3:05 pm

                    Ah except there’s this thing called MMP.

                    So I get to revel in the decline, and watch the government change.

                    It’s great revelling all round.

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      19 August 2016 at 3:12 pm

                      There have been seven elections in NZ held under MMP, National are currently leading Labour four elections to three

                      Not making a point, just interesting is all

          • framu 4.2.3.1.2
            19 August 2016 at 12:27 pm

            “A co-ordinated, coherent and compelling Left Wing vision of exactly how The Left would cure all of our issues, while at the same time not eroding the qualities that current Govt. supporters value.”

            national certainly didnt do this the last three times – and yes they are the govt yada yada yada (nod to PR)

            but i find that people dont require the same from national in order to vote for them pretty weird

            • Puckish Rogue 4.2.3.1.2.1
              19 August 2016 at 12:32 pm

              I’d have thought winning the last three elections would give the left some idea that National kind of know what they’re doing

              • framu …
                19 August 2016 at 12:34 pm

                thats not really my point – im talking about how people dont demand the same things from nat/lab

                • Puckish Rogue …
                  19 August 2016 at 1:11 pm

                  Ok so what I think is that people have different expectations from National then they do Labour

                  So what National can do Labour can’t and vice versa, it may also mean people have higher expectations of Labour then they do National so when Labour fall short of those expectations they’re “punished” more then what National would be

                  So to say Nationals doing this therefore Labour should be able to do it as well simply won’t work

                  • Ad …
                    19 August 2016 at 2:29 pm

                    The unique attribute of Labour as distinct from National is that Labour can walk and chew gum convincingly at the same time.

                    Under Labour, as under National, house prices went up, the economy wasn’t too bad, they built stuff, solved some Treaty claims, and they both generally dealt with things as they came up.

                    But what Labour did as well at the same time was lower government debt, lower unemployment, increase the ability to save, form a realistic national brand, push the country to innovate, and crack into the deep and hard stuff.

                    They’ve both had three terms. Labour’s go at it delivered far more.
                    And it always will.

                    • Puckish Rogue …
                      19 August 2016 at 2:40 pm

                      “The unique attribute of Labour as distinct from National is that Labour can walk and chew gum convincingly at the same time.”

                      Just a shame the voters of NZ would disagree with you

                      “But what Labour did as well at the same time was lower government debt, lower unemployment, increase the ability to save, form a realistic national brand, push the country to innovate, and crack into the deep and hard stuff.”

                      and according to CV the government debt was passed onto private debt, unemployment under National is low (and the envy of a number of first world nations) even after the GFC and as for deep and hard well there were a couple of major earthquakes and natural disasters to deal with

                      “They’ve both had three terms. Labour’s go at it delivered far more. And it always will.”

                      Even Cunliffe congratulated National on the work they’d done 🙂

                    • Ad []
                      19 August 2016 at 3:02 pm

                      All of which is covered in my post.

                  • framu …
                    19 August 2016 at 8:08 pm

                    well yeah – i kind of agree PR.

                    consider my comment more an exercise in considering the weird motivations of all of us

                    Humans are very odd things, in all sorts of weird ways, on all sorts of subjects

              • One Anonymous Bloke …
                19 August 2016 at 12:39 pm

                …and the massive increase in the homeless population sets the record straight.

                I note that the only way you can win elections is to politicise the SIS and lie about your opponents. Drug cheats sometimes win medals. They’re still trash.

                • The lost sheep …
                  19 August 2016 at 12:56 pm

                  Whats your blindingly brilliant plan for winning the next election then OAB?
                  Sneer at a few trolls on The Standard? Worked well so far eh?

                  • One Anonymous Bloke …
                    19 August 2016 at 7:43 pm

                    Yawn. If it were my plan you’d have brought something to the table for once. As it is you’re still a bag of air.

                    • The lost sheep …
                      20 August 2016 at 9:11 am

                      Heh heh. You can always be relied on to immediately confirm any point made against you OAB.

                      But, no. If you had read carefully you would see that I am making a substantial point about the need for The Left to improve and strengthen leadership, drop the emphasis on the current Govt., and bring a new focus on a powerful and coherent selling of the Left’s vision.
                      If you think that is just ‘air’ it is probably an indication of why you are incapable of stating any concrete alternatives of your own.

                      Because i did notice that you did only sneer, and had no plan to offer. In that you are so representative of the way so much of the Left Wing ‘thinking’ is headed.

                      What is your plan OAB?
                      Enough of the mindless Pit Bull routine. Add something constructive to the post please.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke …
                      20 August 2016 at 10:15 am

                      Concern troll is concerned, offers weasel words.

              • TC …
                19 August 2016 at 3:13 pm

                In terms of lying, deception, distractions, getting govt agencies and the msm to play their part the last 3 elections show they really do know to get a result.

            • The lost sheep 4.2.3.1.2.2
              19 August 2016 at 12:54 pm

              You find it ‘weird’ because you can’t accept that many people do actually think that National are offering a more coherent option than The Left Framu?

              IMO many on the Left suffer from this kind of denial. Broadly speaking it is the ‘Voters must be idiots to vote National and not for us’ meme.
              Unfortunately for the Left, memes are only useful for basing strategy on if they are true. If your strategy is based on the assumption voters are stupid, then you will probably end up with a stupid strategy. As the Left has done.

              So here’s an alternative meme.
              ‘The voters are intelligent and understand clearly what they are voting for’.
              My pick is a strategy based on that meme will have far more chance of success than the current dumb plan.

              • framu …
                19 August 2016 at 7:52 pm

                FFS! – your trying to put words in my mouth – and doing it very badly. In fact youve utterly failed to comprehend the point being made. Well done

                try again

                • The lost sheep …
                  20 August 2016 at 10:40 am

                  O/K.

                  im talking about how people dont demand the same things from nat/lab

                  They do. What’s ‘weird’ is that you think they don’t.
                  If i understand you correctly, I agree that the vision National offers is limited in scope and conservative.
                  But my point is that the ‘vision’ the Left is offering is even weaker. So many voters do in fact see the Nat. option as the most coherent.

                  As I’m saying. On the face of it, it should be a simple matter for The Left to offer a more compelling option. I don’t understand why it is not happening.

                  • One Anonymous Bloke …
                    20 August 2016 at 1:44 pm

                    Meanwhile on Earth, the opposition bloc has led polling for the last two years, so once again, your contribution amounts to nothing.

        • BM 4.2.3.2
          19 August 2016 at 12:00 pm

          My comment was aimed at save nz about what would help the left.

          As you know politics has become very personality driven,so if Labour is going to be successful in 2017 then Andrew Little has to improve and become more likable, looking and sounding perpetually grumpy and pissed off doesn’t cut it in modern politics.

          There is a reason he’s only rated at 7%.

      • Stuart Munro 4.2.4
        19 August 2016 at 11:50 am

        Irrelevant – but shouldn’t you leave the white-anting to the Herald? It wouldn’t do to overplay your hand.

        National – “We couldn’t create a surplus if your future depended on it, but we can belittle Andrew Little.”

      • North 4.2.5
        20 August 2016 at 12:02 am

        Wow ! BM’s got a job applying lippy in the Crosby Textor Beauty Dept. That’s why BM’s so knowledgable about governance and so on and knows all about smiles.

      • Leftie 4.2.6
        21 August 2016 at 1:56 am

        Andrew Little doesn’t look like he is going to punch the next person he sees in the face BM.

  5. Observer Tokoroa 5
    20 August 2016 at 2:45 am

    .
    . Annette King

    . The Leader Labour needed and didn’t get ?

    . She has both Presence and Authority. Without which a leader limps.

    .

    • Ad 5.1
      20 August 2016 at 2:12 pm

      She’s a good Deputy.

      Not only because she is supremely competent within her Health portfolio, but also because she has the loyalty of the MPs from the centre and south of the North Island, and most of the women.

      Great to see her wrinsing Coleman over Hawkes Bay water issue. Well nigh time she got a meaty media issue to deal with. Needs to be in the next government in charge of Health.

  6. save nz 6
    20 August 2016 at 9:16 am

    Andrew Little has grown on me as a leader because he has made some good decisions as leader in particular TPP, collaboration with Greens, and collaboration with NZ First to help get Natz out of Northland ‘safe’ seat.

    Now is not the time to undermine him with other options as leader, which killed Labour last election and is killing UK Labour. But do feel that he should surround himself by other MP’s in interviews, working together to give out messaging and to look more united and representative of different age groups, genders and ethnicity. David Cunliffe is very popular as is Jacinda Arden, so again having more Labour MP’s with Andrew Little, sends both a united message and is subconsciously more inclusive.

    At the end of the day attacking Little because of how he appears is a compliment, in the sense that they can’t get him on anything else.

  7. Observer Tokoroa 7
    20 August 2016 at 3:46 pm

    . To save NZ

    . I don’t think I attacked him on looks. Winnie Churchill wasn’t actually a hunk. I am certainly not a hunk. Presence however is a comprehensive psychological mental dominance. Winnie had “Presence” on the street, on Radio, on film.

    Annette King has it. Phil Twyford too.

    The PM trashes Andrew. Just as he did David Cunliffe. Little had a great handle on John Key at the beginning. “Cut the Crap prime Minister”. Nice; neat, crisp, accurate. Little should have followed through.

    Andrew Little must get the measure of Key, and topple him in debate. Topple him on TV and on radio and topple him in the Press. Nice; neat, crisp and accurate.

    If he does not, he will let Labour down. I am sure he does not want to do that.

    Our PM has lost the plot. You would think that the Opposition would drive that home to every person. every time in every place. Constantly.

    .

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