British election – latest polling

Written By: - Date published: 11:30 am, May 6th, 2010 - 23 comments
Categories: International, uk politics - Tags:

Short fix for those following the British election – just updated from the Guardian:

The Conservatives appear to be on the brink of regaining power at the end of one of the most tumultuous and tightly fought general election campaigns since the second world war. A Guardian/ICM poll shows the Conservatives with an eight-point lead over Labour, just short of what they need for an overall majority. The survey put the Conservatives on 36%, Labour on 28% and the Liberal Democrats on 26%. There is no sign of Labour or the Lib Dems closing the gap on the Tories and at least three other polls have come up with similar results. Only one of the four polls projected Labour gaining the largest number of seats.

If the Guardian/ICM poll correctly predicts voting patterns, it would leave Cameron just short of an overall majority, but close to being able to rule with the help of unionist parties, especially if the Tory seat share is pushed higher by a stronger showing in the key marginals, the central goal of the well-funded Tory organisation. And it would leave Nick Clegg with little option but to give a Cameron minority government the first chance to try to push through a Queen’s speech and budget.

23 comments on “British election – latest polling ”

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  1. gingercrush 1
    6 May 2010 at 12:25 pm

    We’ll see if that happens. I don’t think we’ll get the cries of “The whole world is turning left so why in New Zealand are we turning right” shite argument that several people here came up with when National got on the government benches despite Obama winning the President and Australia earlier voting in a Labor government.

    • willaspish 1.1
      6 May 2010 at 12:50 pm

      That’s right, what’s happened to all those comparisons of John Key with Barack Obama when they both got elected? While Obama has pushed through major legislation on Health Care, signed a treaty to reduce the US’s nuclear stockpile and won a Nobel Peace prize, what has JK achieved? An appearance on Letterman just doesn’t rank up there, does it?

      • Gosman 1.1.1
        6 May 2010 at 1:19 pm

        Ummmmm… what did Obama win that Peace prize for again?

        • Pascal's bookie 1.1.1.1
          6 May 2010 at 1:22 pm

          On behalf of the US people for not electing McCain/Palin.

      • McRad 1.1.2
        6 May 2010 at 9:42 pm

        John Key got to meet Barack Obama. That’s another achievement right there and, might I add, one that Obama hasn’t made yet.

        Although there’s still time for him to meet his clone yet.

    • Maynard J 1.2
      6 May 2010 at 12:59 pm

      No, we won’t, funny that, because the world isn’t voting left at the moment. Or right, for that matter. You ARE prickly today, aren’t you?

  2. Gosman 2
    6 May 2010 at 1:21 pm

    Wow! I’m amazed someone here has actually posted about the UK elections as it had all gone quiet on that front for the past week. Might have had something to do with Labour’s pathetic performance on the campaign trail I suppose.

  3. Pascal's bookie 3
    6 May 2010 at 1:25 pm

    Reactions to Simon Cowell’s endorsement of the tories, which was, for unknown reasons, in my paper this morning.

  4. ghostwhowalksnz 4
    6 May 2010 at 1:40 pm

    So a hung parliament is called on the ‘brink’.

    Looks like the Guardian wants to sit on the fence.

  5. jimmy 5
    6 May 2010 at 3:26 pm

    My ex-pat british politics lecturer said that if the Tories will in wont be all that bad because whoever wins is going to have to cut public services in a big way and probably wont get a seccond term because of it.

    • jimmy 5.1
      6 May 2010 at 5:28 pm

      My appologies for the poor proof reading, replace ‘will in’ with ‘win it’.

  6. Brett Dale 6
    6 May 2010 at 5:51 pm

    Uhm, how does the British system work?

    Is it a first past the post thing?

    Or An MMP type election?

    They dont actually vote for a PM do they?

    • lprent 6.1
      6 May 2010 at 6:06 pm

      FPP – pretty much exactly like our old system used to be in the lower house. Bloody awful system. Just look at the difference between the LibDems vote and their seats…

  7. Brett Dale 7
    6 May 2010 at 5:59 pm

    Oh what would be the best site to follow the results coming in?

    • Pascal's bookie 7.1
      6 May 2010 at 7:26 pm

      bbc probably. But I heard the man on the tele say that Brit is so damn backward that the vote counting people actually knock off when the polls close, and go home to have a good sleep so as to be nice and fresh for their big job the day after the election.

  8. Brett Dale 8
    6 May 2010 at 7:43 pm

    Thanks for all the info!

  9. Jim Nald 9
    6 May 2010 at 10:02 pm

    And wait. And wait.
    Hehe .. reminds me when I was there and waiting for the train to turn up.

  10. RedBack 10
    6 May 2010 at 10:27 pm

    Depends which polls you go by. As an average we probably are heading for a Tory minority govt.It was intersting to note however that the Torys weren’t overly confident on getting the Lib Dems to form a coalition in the event of a hung parliament so as a back up they have been courting the UUP (Ulster Unionist Party). these guys are totally bonkers. The magic winning post to reach up here is 326 seats. Before the polls opened this morning the house of commons seating arrangments were as follows:
    Labour: 349
    Cons: 210
    Lib Dems: 62
    Others: 29
    There are those that are subscribing to the theory that winning this election could actually be a curse as their policies implemented to deal with the recession will be so unpopular they could be out of power for a generation. If Labour do lose power tonight and the turkeys vote for chirstmas it may be bit of a blessing for the left. Whatever happens Gordon Brown will be removed as Labour leader and more than likley David Milliband will be the newer model to take the helm. There will be many twists and turns before and after the result of this election will be known. The most interesting thing to note is that even after 13 years in opposition it appears the British public still aren’t willing to give the Conservatives a mandate to govern.There is still a general distrust of them and their policies and rightly so. For all of David Camerons aribrushed personality he still a Tory and still has a party ideaology to follow. This is highligted brilliantly by Johann Hari in the Independant. It gives a sneak peak at what really does happen when the so called new and improved Tories get their hands on public services. http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/johann-hari/johann-hari-welcome-to-cameron-land-1962318.html

    • bahandhumbug 10.1
      6 May 2010 at 10:37 pm

      The country’s a basket case and for all the talk of Tory’s and Labour and Liberal Dems they’re all cast from the same mold ………. power at any cost and fuck the public.

      Time for some austerity measures as the economy’s gone down the crapper but don’t cut back on the Gin budget for parliament… pip pip where’s me peerage ?

  11. Name 11
    6 May 2010 at 11:36 pm

    Redback makes a valid point. Local Government is far more politicised in the UK than in NZ with Councillors standing, and sitting, on party lines. So there is a great deal of public awareness of how LibDem/Labour and LibDem/Conservative coalitions work in practice. And, regrettably, the extent to which the Liberal-Democrat minorities will prostitute themselves in order to get a finger on the levers of power. Maori Party anyone?

    What’s odd is the collapse of the Tory vote. Many left-wingers want to give Labour a good slap in the face for Iraq, the MP expenses affair and Gordon Brown’s grovelling to the City and might feel able to vote Lib-Dem this time round, getting the bonus of a push for PR and a brake on the Right. But there’s nowhere else for the Tories to go apart from Conservative (no ACT in the UK) yet the Conservative vote in the opinion polls has collapsed. This suggests that far fewer people regard their ‘natural’ position as being to the right than has been the case previously.

    It was the Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, who opined that whoever won this election would have to take such draconian steps to put things right with the economy that they would be unelectable for a generation. However I’d suggest that the electorate in the UK is more aware than that, and that they would be willing to accept quite hard austerity as long as it is perceived to be fairly applied. I’d suggest that much of the problem in Greece arises from a perceived if not actual imbalance with the rich suffering less than the poor, which is why the banks are being targeted by the rioters. The same is more likely to happen in the UK under a Conservative Government and I believe there is a visceral if not cerebral awareness of this among voters, which is another reason the Conservatives won’t get the vote they were expecting.

    • RedBack 11.1
      7 May 2010 at 12:04 am

      Name I totally agree with you about the British public being willing to accept the austerity that is coming their way no matter who wins. What a large section of Brits don’t want is for those measures to disproportionatly hit middle and lower income people. That is what is likely to happen under the Torys. Hence the polls, while they put them ahead, do not suggest they have unilateral support for their proposed reforms. I also agree that Greece is a poor comparison with UK when talking about debt levels. Although that hasn’t stopped the Torys scaremongering the public with misinformation. The fact is that Greece’s economy has been poorly managed for years. They have enormous community of tax exiles plus their debt as a % of their GDP is at 115%. Compared to the UK which is at 68%.

      Many left/liberal voters have had their patience stretched by Labour over the past decade and yes I also think thats why the Lib Dems are going to pick up seats off Labour. What I am hoping for is that the Lib Dems pick up Labour marginal seats and block the Tory vote. Mind you its not just the Lib Dems that will come into play in the event of a hung parliament but also the Scottish & Welsh Nationalist Parties could prove to be valuable allies to Labour if thats the way they choose align themselves. Proportional rep would really serve the left far better in the UK. No wonder the Cons aren’t even entertaining it. Apart from UKIP (at a stretch) they really have no allies.

  12. RedBack 12
    7 May 2010 at 9:15 am

    Just an early exit poll from the UK indicates the Torys will be short by 19 seats for an overall majority. Looks like the turkeys have voted for christmas. As a public sector worker all I can say is how depressing.