Can this government get re-elected?

Written By: - Date published: 10:56 am, February 13th, 2022 - 34 comments
Categories: climate change, covid-19, Economy, energy, health, housing, jacinda ardern, labour, polls, poverty, public transport, transport, uncategorized - Tags:

Where will the votes come from to get Labour a third term? 

Prime Minister Ardern promised Parliament this week that Labour would lead New Zealand to “… emerge stronger than ever before.”

In many respects that is true already in efficiency, resilience, and government responsiveness.

But the Prime Minister didn’t communicate what an improved New Zealand would look like.

This government can’t wait three months to re-set itself.

Democratic politics is a popularity contest, and right now a third term is not looking good.

Public Health

The protesters on Parliament grounds may well be incoherent and may yet learn to love “I Write The Songs”, but they are posing the right questions of the government at the right time. We all owe this Labour government a debt of gratitude for their globally outstanding response to the pandamic. But operating the country in a crisis for three years, on top of the multiple other crises we have endured, shows that they can manage but not that they can lead.

The vaccination mandates and the enforced isolation were useful for a time but they need to be replaced with something softer: civil emergencies should suspend human rights for the minimum time possible and that time is up.

No one has any idea whether the entire DHB restructure will deliver any better health outcomes at all, and nor is there any evidence that it will fix the gaping holes in our public health system that the COVID variants have ruthlessly exposed. It is up to the government to demonstrate that it will, because as the Prime Minister points out there are multiple variants still, and “winter is coming”.

The public health “thanks” vote will by 2023 have completely evaporated.

Economy and Budget

Headline unemployment and underemployment is down to historic levels, economic growth is strong, industry and trade are strong though tested. The next stats come out just before Budget is released.

We are showing all the signs of drastic skill shortages in particular areas – which more locals will train for rather than be imported. This is good pressure to have.

But is the government guiding New Zealand to an improved economy? It has done so much with unprecedented wage subsidies and tens of billions of infrastructure investment. The current government has essentially underwritten the wages and salaries of most workers.

The government is expending huge effort taking the place of near-absent worker unions with new comprehensive job-loss compensation, higher minimum wages, stronger collective wage bargaining, and more. Little of that will enable us to be more productive, more efficient, more competitive, or more innovative.

We are well overdue for a government budget that sets out far more than what the government spends, and actually gives strong investment and regulatory signals to markets.

None need be grateful that poverty hasn’t massively expanded over this political term, though it is uncommon for it to be a political issue when unemployment is so low.

Overall it is in the handling of the economy that the government will neutralise the main political attacks through to 2023.

Carbon Zero Plan

We are three months from the 2022-23 budget and three months from the Carbon Zero plan. The Carbon Zero plan will be comprehensive and it will have a very high media and public impact. In the transport sector for example one of the draft targets is to reduce vehicle kilometres travelled by cars and light vehicles by 20% by 2035 through providing better travel options. To remind ourselves, here’s the consultation document.

It will no matter how it is spun be viewed as creeping socialism from a government that is already right in our face.

There are frankly zero new votes in this plan.

Transport

This government has set out the enormous Auckland light rail plan, but unless there is a strong mandate at the next election this project has a less than even chance of occurring. The Wellington plan is patchy but now coming out of design and into build. Until at least 2030 New Zealand has functioning public transport systems capable of shifting emissions significantly in just two of its cities: Auckland and Wellington.

Electric car sales are strong, but our national car fleet is rapidly ageing as available household cash goes into rent or mortgage payments. The government continues to prefer public transport subsidies and capital projects to provide mode choice, rather than regulating old combustion cars out. This approach only works for Auckland and Wellington, not the rest of the country. Again, nothing politically positive for the government out of this.

Energy

In energy, the government has not yet shown how it will deal with two massive issues. The first is the price of petrol and diesel. Carbon trading and global instability will likely increase the cost of petrol further, and without local refining or much storage we are increasingly at the whim of international market spikes and troughs. Powerless government and political risk go hand in hand.

The second is in our electricity bills. This government like most before it is being played by the Tiwai Point owners, and while wind and solar generation is increasing it is the Tiwai Point question that is holding up the entire renewables sector. Government weakness with its generators has led to our highest-ever use of coal since the 1950s. The Lake Onslow battery project isn’t commercially viable since it would only be used for backup, and runs the same high risk of early death as the light rail project. There is no sign the government plans to gain political capital out of price regulation in electricity.

Housing

As I’ve noted before, this government is more interventionist and more active in housing regulation, tax, and construction than any government in the last 50 years. Despite this, rent on median average consumes nearly half of what households earn. That’s higher even than Canada and Australia which have also had real estate booms. Housing construction is booming, consents are up, and the enforced pause on immigration is allowing supply to catch up.

We have a long, long way to go before we are at the inflation points of the late 1980s, but every half % point interest rate increase (of which there will likely be several in 2022) will have a similar disposable income impact on those who own houses as those who rent.

The question of regulating the price of rent will be politically explosive, and to not too fine a point on it almost everyone in parliament owns a rental house.

Water

We have to go back 50 years to find water as an electoral issue, but the 3-Waters programme even has the potential to make the 2022 local government elections slightly interesting – which is some feat. Government hasn’t spelled out what the remaining role for local or regional councils is once it has taken water management off them. It hasn’t recognised that water, like petrol and broadband, has a deep implied reliance across the whole of society. There are still a few around who remember what previous whole-of-network reforms did to us in telecomms, electricity, and rail. Like the health reforms, none can be sure whether water prices will be cheaper or fair, nor how this new form of commercialised supplier + operator oligopoly will work.

This government has left most of its reform initiatives to its last year of the term and they are converging into a godawful mess.

Conclusion

Since the 2020 election this government has seen a precipitous fall in popularity and the Opposition are close to being able to propose an alternative government.

Where will this government gain back the voters it has lost?

Can it improve sufficiently inside 12 months?

How far the tide goes out from its historic high depends on just 12 months of performance from May 2022.

After that the die is cast.

34 comments on “Can this government get re-elected? ”

  1. mike 1

    Well, they'll get my vote.

    That's one.

    Oh, and my partner.

    That's two

  2. observer 3

    We've known since election 2020 what they needed. 40 + 10. Vary the numbers within that, season according to taste.

    A lot of issues in the OP, so let's just look at one: the new Health system, including the Maori entity, a major breakthrough.

    I'll make one prediction now: National won't go into the election promising to scrap it. Collins said she would. Watch Luxon squirm when he's asked if they will.

  3. Has National even promised anything that will turn the voters?

    It's a 2-way street.

    Voters are not just going to change camps on a "Nothing offered" campaign.

    • JanM 4.1

      Exactly. It's all very well making a song and dance about this government not being perfect but it doesn't mean we'll all rush to vote for a party that caused a lot of these problems in the first place!

    • Shanreagh 4.2

      But they often do vote the other way just to get the current lot out.

      So the other party often does not have to offer very much at all. That is the danger. If nothing is offered or accepted as being offered the incoming govt is offered a more or less clean slate to go forward on.

    • Enough is Enough 4.3

      I would say the exact opposite. Governments vote themselves out. So long as they are doing a good competent job, the electorate generally votes for the status quo.

      As an opposition you don't ever really want to over promise or come up with daft policies because you then have to deliver. KiwiBuild anyone?

      National governments are conservative in nature. They don't really ever tranform things like Labour governments do. So don't expect much out of them in terms of big ticket policies

    • alwyn 4.4

      Oppositions don't win elections. Governments lose them. It is only a question of when they will do so. I personally think that it will be 2023. The only thing they did well was the 2020 reaction to the Covid outbreak. However they can only play that card for so long and I think that time has pretty well run out.

      We were promised Freedom day when we got 90% vaccination. It never happened. Then we were told that there would be no penalties for people who didn't get vaccinated. That was just before the last election.

      " Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern went a step further, saying not only will there be no forced vaccinations, but those who choose to opt-out won't face any penalties at all. "

      https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/09/coronavirus-jacinda-ardern-confident-enough-kiwis-will-get-covid-19-vaccine-for-herd-immunity-without-being-forced-to.html

      Hmm.

      Meanwhile, after people get really sick of the Covid 19 theme tune being played over and over again, people will start looking at everything else that the Government has failed at and I think will decide to dump the current Government in a landslide.

      An alternative to the Government don't have to have a complete policy package. They just have to look competent and with Luxon in the top job I think that will happen. For the Government to warble on about "nine long years" really doesn't work when they people singing the refrain are themselves responsible for "six worse years".

      So it will be "Bye bye Birdie, good bye".

  4. Patricia Bremner 5

    We will be voting for them, but I do sense a changed attitude from some we think are swing voters.

    Housing is a big issue. Mandates will end sooner rather than later, because their usefulness will wane. Most people will ask, are we better off? Is the country doing ok in a pandemic? More will say yes than no. Why? They will not buy National is "New" and "Improved" Brownlie Collins Woodhouse Bridges et al a constant reminder of past DP.

    Voters send messages in polls. They don't count except as a prod!! There is one important poll only. The election.

    People know that inflation is partly imported (oil) and also caused by shortages due to supply lines. Pandemic spending has also had an effect.

    Gimlet eyes does not have the common touch and his "team" is same old same old.

  5. tsmithfield 6

    I think that the government faces a number of problems at the moment, as has been explained above.

    One of the issues is that I think the general population is getting weary of the Covid restrictions.

    The government did well in the initial stages of the pandemic when they were able to galvanise the nation under the "team of 5 million". But I think it gets more and more difficult to keep this degree of co-operation going, and that the government will come under increasing criticism. That may not be fair, because it is easy for people to criticise when they don't have to make the hard decisions. Nevertheless, the government is in charge, so their actions or lack of them will come under increasing scrutiny.

    Another issue is that the government seems to be creating reasons to piss-off a wide variety of sectors that cumulatively may prove fatal for them at the election.

    Take "Three-Waters for instance: Personally, I think the idea of centrally managing water treatment resources may make a lot of sense. But the way this has been communicated is terrible. The government has brought a big fight with councils that they didn't really need to. And they have shown themselves to be a treacherous bunch by cancelling a promised opt-in option for councils, and running what looks like a sham of a consultation process.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/457660/three-waters-government-agreed-to-mandated-strategy-before-four-entities-announced

    “Watts said eight weeks of consultation with the local government sector was inadequate, and so was the response to councils' largely negative feedback.

    “They've made a decision on this and the consultation is just, yeah, to tick a box. And this is a real disappointing fact because this is going to affect every single ratepayer in this country," he said."

    So, the actions of the government around this speak louder than the policy itself IMO, and I think is likely to undermine trust in the government more generally.

    Governments usually undertake their transformative policies at the beginning of a term, and leave the lollies to the end when they need votes at the election.

    But this time, it seems all about face. They seem to be trying to drive through a multitude of policies that are likely to be very divisive, and may well prove fatal for them. I don't really know why they are going this way about it.

    • Christopher Randal 6.1

      Three Waters and Auckland Light Rail will be enough to lose them the election.

      Disregarding the overwhelming opposition by both councils and the public to Three Waters is incredibly stupid, and it makes the Minister and the PM look incompetent.

      The huge amount being quoted for light rail is untenable, especially since, if past experience is anything to go on, the price is likely to double. Voters out of Auckland will be asking why Michael Wood can spend this ridiculous amount of money in Auckland and why can't the split it up for the benefit of the rest of the country. Health, Education and Welfare should be getting that money, not a train set for Auckland.

  6. Blazer 7

    Basic needs=food,shelter…how's the Govt doing on those two?

    Food….investigating Supermarket duopoly…!

    Huge increase in food banks helping feed the poor.

    Food price inflation for basic products that NZ produces in abundance are eye watering.

    Vegetables,meat,dairy,fish…you need to be a landlord these days to afford…them.

    Shelter…

    23,000+ living in motels

    Highest house prices in the world.

    Highest rents in the…world.

    Tinkering by a Govt overweight in landlords,while the present and long term consequences of this crisis are basically ignored.

    Only a National Govt could do…worse.

  7. Byd0nz 8

    Did I hear correctly, did Luxon say he would hit the Gvt hard about inflation?

    was there no inflation under National led Gvts?

    very lame attack line from the new and improved.

    • Barfly 8.1

      Luxon should be asked if he watches or reads any international news.

      Inflation is a currently a WORLD WIDE issue .

      Hmm does he want JA to give him a solution to this WORLD WIDE problem?

      • Blazer 8.1.1

        That is a very poor argument.

        NZ is supposedly an independent nation with its own fiscal and monetary policies.

        Climate change is a WORLD WIDE problem too-what do you suggest?

  8. Belladonna 9

    No data to support this – just conversations with friends – the majority of whom voted Labour at the last election.

    Personal support for Jacinda remains high. People like and trust her – though some are starting to question how well she is advised.

    Support for the government (as in the other Ministers) is starting to waver. They are not presenting as competent – and seem to be constantly being blind-sided over issues, and not communicating effectively.

    Policy reversals, when a wild-hair idea turns out to be a political rotten egg (e.g. Auckland cycling bridge), don't help. Local Labour MPs sing from the song sheet when promoting the idea, then go silent when it's reversed [personal experience of our local MP on local Facebook groups] – there's little trust being built up – and people start to wonder if any policy is ever going to get off the ground.

    Hipkins is a particular casualty of this. He's slipped from being well regarded in the middle of last year, to people being unsure about him this year. I'd regard this as a mix of weariness (it's been a rough couple of years for all politicians), and a much-too-heavy workload (which, begs the question, why Labour hasn't redistributed some of his portfolios – and then a discussion over the depth of the talent pool).

    So, can the government get re-elected?

    It comes down to how much people vote for a person (Ardern) and how much they vote for a set of policies. And we won't know that, 'til voting day.

    • observer 9.1

      Pretty fair summary overall, though I'd question the conclusion.

      In the next 2 Budgets Robertson will be pivoting to post-Covid policies. National will want to offer tax cuts (as usual), but they got badly burned in the last 2 elections when their maths came under the spotlight. "Cut public spending" is a message that works in theory, but not on specifics, like your local hospital.

      Reading between the lines on Luxon's messaging, I'd guess that when he says "invest more" but "spend less" (and he says both, often) that can only mean more private investment. That's going to be a hard sell to the voters.

      • Belladonna 9.1.1

        I don't know that new post-Covid policies will help much. People are starting to question whether Labour can deliver on anything (apart from the Covid management). So announcing a new policy suite, unless delivery is planned by the end of this year, is likely to be too little, too late.

        The two current biggies on the horizon are the Health Dept restructure (which, most people see as having little impact on front line delivery improvements – it's all back room stuff); and the 3 waters (which the govt has an enormous task to sell to average voters) – quite frankly, most people simply don't believe Mahuta over the claimed benefits.

        There's a heck of a lot of water-cooler (or the online equivalent) doubt over whether the Auckland light-rail is ever going to get off the ground, or just be another expensive consultant exercise.

      • Blazer 9.1.2

        I do wonder why people would bother to invest in small business ,indeed anything other than property doesn't make sense.

        You see NZ's richest man a multi billionaire buy 9 properties in Mt Wtgn recently.

        On last years price rises they would gross him $54,000 a WEEK,which is the apx equivalent of the weekly profits of 6 Michael Hill Jewellery stores.(public accs).

        As Luxon has 7 properties, not convinced he would give up on such a good thing.

  9. Tiger Mountain 10

    It was posed various times here on the Standard that a majority MMP Govt. scenario would show exactly what this Labour Caucus was made of. And it did and has. Labour is part of the main party neo liberal Parliamentary consensus that has persisted since 1984. Reserve Bank Act, State Sector Act, penetration of public infrastructure by private capital, and fifth columnist style state sector managerialism are not going anywhere till new gen voters wake up and get organised.

    So AO/NZ will most likely be back to a “proper” MMP Govt. with Labour and Greens, and possibly Te Parti Māori.

    Luxury Luxon with 7 pads, and a Merc to cross the road, is unlikely to precipitate a massive swing to the Natzos. ACT will be exposed if they ever let their other MPs speak publicly or have to front up on all their diabolical Chicago Boys policy.

    So lots will vote for a Labour/Green Govt, which despite the obvious flaws will keep the dirty filthy tories out for another three years.

  10. Corey Humm 11

    In the four elections I've been able to vote, I've voted two ticks red in all but 2017, where party voted green because I was worried they wouldn't get 5% and electorate voted red.

    In 2014,2017,2020 I volunteered, canvassed, fundraised enrolled strangers and took a week off work in the last week of the election and did the get out the vote.

    I don't know who I'll vote for or if I'll even bother voting but I can 95% rule out giving Labour either of my votes.

    If Chloe Swarbrick can keep the Greens focused on left wing economic matters then I'll give them two ticks or Top two ticks.

    Labour doesn't care and are only interested in power for the sake of power

    • Anne 11.1

      It works both ways Corey Humm. A significant number of Labour people are said to have voted Green to keep them in parliament. Done it myself. On the other hand a significant number of Green voters have voted Labour to keep them in office. One might cancel out the other – we will never know.

      • Barfly 11.1.1

        Lol I'm a Labour supporter that votes Green to keep them in Parliament. surprise

        • Anne 11.1.1.1

          Yep. I've done it too. My reason is mainly CC. Its their job to poke and prod Labour to actually do something concrete about it. smiley

        • aj 11.1.1.2

          …. votes Green to keep them in Parliament

          Did that once and would do so again if their support is threatening 5%

  11. DS 13

    High petrol prices are never good for incumbent Governments, of course.

    So far as Covid goes – the whingers are a loud and powerful minority. 58% of the country wants to keep the borders closed, after all, and the notion that the Government has been selling out to the Right via stupid liberalisation never actually gets raised.

  12. greywarshark 14

    Perhaps people would vote where they live in an area that supplies essential infrastructure for NZ. Government has got to get out of its easy chair,and be for the country – make some decisions they will stand behind. -They would have to face the bull while being light on their toes and skilled to protect from any untoward rushes.

    Like Marlborough. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/ldr/461430/former-councillor-says-110m-port-loan-risky-without-crown-guarantee

    Marlborough District Council asked the Crown to guarantee its proposed loan of $150 million to Port Marlborough for the ferry precinct development, but it was refused. Instead, according to its statement of proposal, the government rejected the Crown guarantee because it was already committed to supporting KiwiRail, so Port Marlborough recalculated its borrowing to $110m to "reduce the level of risk" involved.

    There were 27 submissions made during consultation on whether the MDC should raise the $110m loan to finance Port Marlborough's share of the ferry precinct redevelopment. Of the submissions, 11 people supported the proposal, seven partially did, and eight did not.

    Consultation hearings are set down for February 17 and 18, of which 12 submitters are expected to speak on their submissions.

    One of those is former Marlborough District councillor and former Port Marlborough chairman David Dew, who did not support the council's proposal. Dew said his concern was the council was not being honest about the risk of borrowing – given it did not have a Crown guarantee.

    "They're making the assumption that you can trust the Crown, and trust state-owned enterprises," he said. Dew turned to state-owned coalminer Solid Energy as an example. Then Prime Minister John Key said in 2013, state-owned enterprises were not government guaranteed and banks that lent to Solid Energy should expect to wear the loss of its accumulating debt.</i>

  13. Drowsy M. Kram 15

    Can this government get re-elected?

    Hope so, but with talent like Collins, Brownlee, MAGA Muller, Bridges, Pugh, Woodhouse, Goldsmith, Mitchell, Hipango et al., NAct's strong team may yet win the comedy debate.

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  14. Blazer 16

    Is it too early to be thinking of slogans?

    'let's do this..'-worked.

    'keep NZ moving ..'-worked

    So far I've come up with-'let them eat noodles…'-but I'm still working on…it.

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    Mary Robinson asked Al Jaber a series of very simple, direct and highly pertinent questions and he responded with a high-octane public meltdown. Photos: Getty Images / montage: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR The hygiene effects of direct sunshine are making some inroads, perhaps for the very first time, on the normalised ‘deficit ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • LINDSAY MITCHELL: Oh, the irony
    Lindsay Mitchell writes – Appointed by new Labour PM Jacinda Ardern in 2018, Cindy Kiro headed the Welfare Expert Advisory Group (WEAG) tasked with reviewing and recommending reforms to the welfare system. Kiro had been Children’s Commissioner during Helen Clark’s Labour government but returned to academia subsequently. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Transport Agencies don’t want Harbour Tunnels
    It seems even our transport agencies don’t want Labour’s harbour crossing plans. In August the previous government and Waka Kotahi announced their absurd preferred option the new harbour crossing that at the time was estimated to cost $35-45 billion. It included both road tunnels and a wiggly light rail tunnel ...
    3 days ago
  • Webworm Presents: Jurassic Park on 35mm
    Hi,Paying Webworm members such as yourself keep this thing running, so as 2023 draws to close, I wanted to do two things to say a giant, loud “THANKS”. Firstly — I’m giving away 10 Mister Organ blu-rays in New Zealand, and another 10 in America. More details down below.Secondly — ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    3 days ago
  • The Prime Minister's Dream.
    Yesterday saw the State Opening of Parliament, the Speech from the Throne, and then Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s dream for Aotearoa in his first address. But first the pomp and ceremony, the arrival of the Governor General.Dame Cindy Kiro arrived on the forecourt outside of parliament to a Māori welcome. ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • National’s new MP; the proud part-Maori boy raised in a state house
    Probably not since 1975 have we seen a government take office up against such a wall of protest and complaint. That was highlighted yesterday, the day that the new Parliament was sworn in, with news that King Tuheitia has called a national hui for late January to develop a ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • Climate Adam: Battlefield Earth – How War Fuels Climate Catastrophe
    This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). War, conflict and climate change are tearing apart lives across the world. But these aren't separate harms - they're intricately connected. ...
    4 days ago
  • They do not speak for us, and they do not speak for the future
    These dire woeful and intolerant people have been so determinedly going about their small and petulant business, it’s hard to keep up. At the end of the new government’s first woeful week, Audrey Young took the time to count off its various acts of denigration of Te Ao Māori:Review the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Another attack on te reo
    The new white supremacist government made attacking te reo a key part of its platform, promising to rename government agencies and force them to "communicate primarily in English" (which they already do). But today they've gone further, by trying to cut the pay of public servants who speak te reo: ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • For the record, the Beehive buzz can now be regarded as “official”
    Buzz from the Beehive The biggest buzz we bring you from the Beehive today is that the government’s official website is up and going after being out of action for more than a week. The latest press statement came  from  Education Minister  Eric Stanford, who seized on the 2022 PISA ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • Climate Change: Failed again
    There was another ETS auction this morning. and like all the other ones this year, it failed to clear - meaning that 23 million tons of carbon (15 million ordinary units plus 8 million in the cost containment reserve) went up in smoke. Or rather, they didn't. Being unsold at ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On The Government’s Assault On Maori
    This isn’t news, but the National-led coalition is mounting a sustained assault on Treaty rights and obligations. Even so, Christopher Luxon has described yesterday’s nationwide protests by Maori as “pretty unfair.” Poor thing. In the NZ Herald, Audrey Young has compiled a useful list of the many, many ways that ...
    4 days ago
  • Rising costs hit farmers hard, but  there’s more  positive news  for  them this  week 
    New Zealand’s dairy industry, the mainstay of the country’s export trade, has  been under  pressure  from rising  costs. Down on the  farm, this  has  been  hitting  hard. But there  was more positive news this week,  first   from the latest Fonterra GDT auction where  prices  rose,  and  then from  a  report ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    4 days ago
  • ROB MacCULLOCH:  Newshub and NZ Herald report misleading garbage about ACT’s van Veldon not follo...
    Rob MacCulloch writes –  In their rush to discredit the new government (which our MainStream Media regard as illegitimate and having no right to enact the democratic will of voters) the NZ Herald and Newshub are arguing ACT’s Deputy Leader Brooke van Veldon is not following Treasury advice ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Top 10 for Wednesday, December 6
    Even many young people who smoke support smokefree policies, fitting in with previous research showing the large majority of people who smoke regret starting and most want to quit. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere on the morning of Wednesday, December ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Eleven years of work.
    Well it didn’t take six months, but the leaks have begun. Yes the good ship Coalition has inadvertently released a confidential cabinet paper into the public domain, discussing their axing of Fair Pay Agreements (FPAs).Oops.Just when you were admiring how smoothly things were going for the new government, they’ve had ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Why we're missing out on sharply lower inflation
    A wave of new and higher fees, rates and charges will ripple out over the economy in the next 18 months as mayors, councillors, heads of department and price-setters for utilities such as gas, electricity, water and parking ramp up charges. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Just when most ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • How Did We Get Here?
    Hi,Kiwis — keep the evening of December 22nd free. I have a meetup planned, and will send out an invite over the next day or so. This sounds sort of crazy to write, but today will be Tony Stamp’s final Totally Normal column of 2023. Somehow we’ve made it to ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    4 days ago
  • At a glance – Has the greenhouse effect been falsified?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    5 days ago
  • New Zealaders  have  high expectations of  new  government:  now let’s see if it can deliver?
    The electorate has high expectations of the  new  government.  The question is: can  it  deliver?    Some  might  say  the  signs are not  promising. Protestors   are  already marching in the streets. The  new  Prime Minister has had  little experience of managing  very diverse politicians  in coalition. The economy he  ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    5 days ago
  • You won't believe some of the numbers you have to pull when you're a Finance Minister
    Nicola of Marsden:Yo, normies! We will fix your cost of living worries by giving you a tax cut of 150 dollars. 150! Cash money! Vote National.Various people who can read and count:Actually that's 150 over a fortnight. Not a week, which is how you usually express these things.And actually, it looks ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • Pushback
    When this government came to power, it did so on an explicitly white supremacist platform. Undermining the Waitangi Tribunal, removing Māori representation in local government, over-riding the courts which had tried to make their foreshore and seabed legislation work, eradicating te reo from public life, and ultimately trying to repudiate ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Defence ministerial meeting meant Collins missed the Maori Party’s mischief-making capers in Parli...
    Buzz from the Beehive Maybe this is not the best time for our Minister of Defence to have gone overseas. Not when the Maori Party is inviting (or should that be inciting?) its followers to join a revolution in a post which promoted its protest plans with a picture of ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • Threats of war have been followed by an invitation to join the revolution – now let’s see how th...
     A Maori Party post on Instagram invited party followers to ….  Tangata Whenua, Tangata Tiriti, Join the REVOLUTION! & make a stand!  Nationwide Action Day, All details in tiles swipe to see locations.  • This is our 1st hit out and tomorrow Tuesday the 5th is the opening ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Top 10 for Tuesday, December 4
    The RBNZ governor is citing high net migration and profit-led inflation as factors in the bank’s hawkish stance. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere on the morning of Tuesday, December 5, including:Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says high net migration and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Nicola Willis' 'show me the money' moment
    Willis has accused labour of “economic vandalism’, while Robertson described her comments as a “desperate diversion from somebody who can't make their tax package add up”. There will now be an intense focus on December 20 to see whether her hyperbole is backed up by true surprises. Photo montage: Lynn ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • CRL costs money but also provides huge benefits
    The City Rail Link has been in the headlines a bit recently so I thought I’d look at some of them. First up, yesterday the NZ Herald ran this piece about the ongoing costs of the CRL. Auckland ratepayers will be saddled with an estimated bill of $220 million each ...
    5 days ago
  • And I don't want the world to see us.
    Is this the most shambolic government in the history of New Zealand? Given that parliament hasn’t even opened they’ve managed quite a list of achievements to date.The Smokefree debacle trading lives for tax cuts, the Trumpian claims of bribery in the Media, an International award for indifference, and today the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Cooking the books
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis late yesterday stopped only slightly short of accusing her predecessor Grant Robertson of cooking the books. She complained that the Half Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU), due to be made public on December 20, would show “fiscal cliffs” that would amount to “billions of ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • Most people don’t realize how much progress we’ve made on climate change
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The year was 2015. ‘Uptown Funk’ with Bruno Mars was at the top of the music charts. Jurassic World was the most popular new movie in theaters. And decades of futility in international climate negotiations was about to come to an end in ...
    6 days ago
  • Of Parliamentary Oaths and Clive Boonham
    As a heads-up, I am not one of those people who stay awake at night thinking about weird Culture War nonsense. At least so far as the current Maori/Constitutional arrangements go. In fact, I actually consider it the least important issue facing the day to day lives of New ...
    6 days ago
  • Bearing True Allegiance?
    Strong Words: “We do not consent, we do not surrender, we do not cede, we do not submit; we, the indigenous, are rising. We do not buy into the colonial fictions this House is built upon. Te Pāti Māori pledges allegiance to our mokopuna, our whenua, and Te Tiriti o ...
    6 days ago
  • You cannot be serious
    Some days it feels like the only thing to say is: Seriously? No, really. Seriously?OneSomeone has used their health department access to share data about vaccinations and patients, and inform the world that New Zealanders have been dying in their hundreds of thousands from the evil vaccine. This of course is pure ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • A promise kept: govt pulls the plug on Lake Onslow scheme – but this saving of $16bn is denounced...
    Buzz from the Beehive After $21.8 million was spent on investigations, the plug has been pulled on the Lake Onslow pumped-hydro electricity scheme, The scheme –  that technically could have solved New Zealand’s looming energy shortage, according to its champions – was a key part of the defeated Labour government’s ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • CHRIS TROTTER: The Maori Party and Oath of Allegiance
    If those elected to the Māori Seats refuse to take them, then what possible reason could the country have for retaining them?   Chris Trotter writes – Christmas is fast approaching, which, as it does every year, means gearing up for an abstruse general knowledge question. “Who was ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • BRIAN EASTON:  Forward to 2017
    The coalition party agreements are mainly about returning to 2017 when National lost power. They show commonalities but also some serious divergencies. Brian Easton writes The two coalition agreements – one National and ACT, the other National and New Zealand First – are more than policy documents. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Climate Change: Fossils
    When the new government promised to allow new offshore oil and gas exploration, they were warned that there would be international criticism and reputational damage. Naturally, they arrogantly denied any possibility that that would happen. And then they finally turned up at COP, to criticism from Palau, and a "fossil ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • GEOFFREY MILLER:  NZ’s foreign policy resets on AUKUS, Gaza and Ukraine
    Geoffrey Miller writes – New Zealand’s international relations are under new management. And Winston Peters, the new foreign minister, is already setting a change agenda. As expected, this includes a more pro-US positioning when it comes to the Pacific – where Peters will be picking up where he ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the government’s smokefree laws debacle
    The most charitable explanation for National’s behaviour over the smokefree legislation is that they have dutifully fulfilled the wishes of the Big Tobacco lobby and then cast around – incompetently, as it turns out – for excuses that might sell this health policy U-turn to the public. The less charitable ...
    6 days ago
  • Top 10 links at 10 am for Monday, December 4
    As Deb Te Kawa writes in an op-ed, the new Government seems to have immediately bought itself fights with just about everyone. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere as of 10 am on Monday December 4, including:Palau’s President ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Be Honest.
    Let’s begin today by thinking about job interviews.During my career in Software Development I must have interviewed hundreds of people, hired at least a hundred, but few stick in the memory.I remember one guy who was so laid back he was practically horizontal, leaning back in his chair until his ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: New Zealand’s foreign policy resets on AUKUS, Gaza and Ukraine
    New Zealand’s international relations are under new management. And Winston Peters, the new foreign minister, is already setting a change agenda. As expected, this includes a more pro-US positioning when it comes to the Pacific – where Peters will be picking up where he left off. Peters sought to align ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    6 days ago
  • Auckland rail tunnel the world’s most expensive
    Auckland’s city rail link is the most expensive rail project in the world per km, and the CRL boss has described the cost of infrastructure construction in Aotearoa as a crisis. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The 3.5 km City Rail Link (CRL) tunnel under Auckland’s CBD has cost ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • First big test coming
    The first big test of the new Government’s approach to Treaty matters is likely to be seen in the return of the Resource Management Act. RMA Minister Chris Bishop has confirmed that he intends to introduce legislation to repeal Labour’s recently passed Natural and Built Environments Act and its ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago
  • The Song of Saqua: Volume III
    Time to revisit something I haven’t covered in a while: the D&D campaign, with Saqua the aquatic half-vampire. Last seen in July: https://phuulishfellow.wordpress.com/2023/07/27/the-song-of-saqua-volume-ii/ The delay is understandable, once one realises that the interim saw our DM come down with a life-threatening medical situation. They have since survived to make ...
    6 days ago
  • Chris Bishop: Smokin’
    Yes. Correct. It was an election result. And now we are the elected government. ...
    My ThinksBy boonman
    1 week ago
  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #48
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Nov 26, 2023 thru Dec 2, 2023. Story of the Week CO2 readings from Mauna Loa show failure to combat climate change Daily atmospheric carbon dioxide data from Hawaiian volcano more ...
    1 week ago
  • Affirmative Action.
    Affirmative Action was a key theme at this election, although I don’t recall anyone using those particular words during the campaign.They’re positive words, and the way the topic was talked about was anything but. It certainly wasn’t a campaign of saying that Affirmative Action was a good thing, but that, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • 100 days of something
    It was at the end of the Foxton straights, at the end of 1978, at 100km/h, that someone tried to grab me from behind on my Yamaha.They seemed to be yanking my backpack. My first thought was outrage. My second was: but how? Where have they come from? And my ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • Look who’s stepped up to champion Winston
    There’s no news to be gleaned from the government’s official website today  – it contains nothing more than the message about the site being under maintenance. The time this maintenance job is taking and the costs being incurred have us musing on the government’s commitment to an assault on inflation. ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago
  • What's The Story?
    Don’t you sometimes wish they’d just tell the truth? No matter how abhorrent or ugly, just straight up tell us the truth?C’mon guys, what you’re doing is bad enough anyway, pretending you’re not is only adding insult to injury.Instead of all this bollocks about the Smokefree changes being to do ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • The longest of weeks
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Friday Under New Management Week in review, quiz style1. Which of these best describes Aotearoa?a. Progressive nation, proud of its egalitarian spirit and belief in a fair go b. Best little country on the planet c. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • Suggested sessions of EGU24 to submit abstracts to
    Like earlier this year, members from our team will be involved with next year's General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU). The conference will take place on premise in Vienna as well as online from April 14 to 19, 2024. The session catalog has been available since November 1 ...
    1 week ago
  • Under New Management
    1. Which of these best describes Aotearoa?a. Progressive nation, proud of its egalitarian spirit and belief in a fair go b. Best little country on the planet c. Under New Management 2. Which of these best describes the 100 days of action announced this week by the new government?a. Petulantb. Simplistic and wrongheaded c. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • Ministers visit Hawke’s Bay to grasp recovery needs
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon joined Cyclone Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell and Transport and Local Government Minister Simeon Brown, to meet leaders of cyclone and flood-affected regions in the Hawke’s Bay. The visit reinforced the coalition Government’s commitment to support the region and better understand its ongoing requirements, Mr Mitchell says.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand condemns malicious cyber activity
    New Zealand has joined the UK and other partners in condemning malicious cyber activity conducted by the Russian Government, Minister Responsible for the Government Communications Security Bureau Judith Collins says. The statement follows the UK’s attribution today of malicious cyber activity impacting its domestic democratic institutions and processes, as well ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Disestablishment of Te Pūkenga begins
    The Government has begun the process of disestablishing Te Pūkenga as part of its 100-day plan, Minister for Tertiary Education and Skills Penny Simmonds says.  “I have started putting that plan into action and have met with the chair and chief Executive of Te Pūkenga to advise them of my ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change Minister to attend COP28 in Dubai
    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will be leaving for Dubai today to attend COP28, the 28th annual UN climate summit, this week. Simon Watts says he will push for accelerated action towards the goals of the Paris Agreement, deliver New Zealand’s national statement and connect with partner countries, private sector leaders ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New Zealand to host 2024 Pacific defence meeting
    Defence Minister Judith Collins yesterday announced New Zealand will host next year’s South Pacific Defence Ministers’ Meeting (SPDMM). “Having just returned from this year’s meeting in Nouméa, I witnessed first-hand the value of meeting with my Pacific counterparts to discuss regional security and defence matters. I welcome the opportunity to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Study shows need to remove distractions in class
    The Government is committed to lifting school achievement in the basics and that starts with removing distractions so young people can focus on their learning, Education Minister Erica Stanford says.   The 2022 PISA results released this week found that Kiwi kids ranked 5th in the world for being distracted ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Minister sets expectations of Commissioner
    Today I met with Police Commissioner Andrew Coster to set out my expectations, which he has agreed to, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. Under section 16(1) of the Policing Act 2008, the Minister can expect the Police Commissioner to deliver on the Government’s direction and priorities, as now outlined in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand needs a strong and stable ETS
    New Zealand needs a strong and stable Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) that is well placed for the future, after emission units failed to sell for the fourth and final auction of the year, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says.  At today’s auction, 15 million New Zealand units (NZUs) – each ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • PISA results show urgent need to teach the basics
    With 2022 PISA results showing a decline in achievement, Education Minister Erica Stanford is confident that the Coalition Government’s 100-day plan for education will improve outcomes for Kiwi kids.  The 2022 PISA results show a significant decline in the performance of 15-year-old students in maths compared to 2018 and confirms ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Collins leaves for Pacific defence meeting
    Defence Minister Judith Collins today departed for New Caledonia to attend the 8th annual South Pacific Defence Ministers’ meeting (SPDMM). “This meeting is an excellent opportunity to meet face-to-face with my Pacific counterparts to discuss regional security matters and to demonstrate our ongoing commitment to the Pacific,” Judith Collins says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Working for Families gets cost of living boost
    Putting more money in the pockets of hard-working families is a priority of this Coalition Government, starting with an increase to Working for Families, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says. “We are starting our 100-day plan with a laser focus on bringing down the cost of living, because that is what ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Post-Cabinet press conference
    Most weeks, following Cabinet, the Prime Minister holds a press conference for members of the Parliamentary Press Gallery. This page contains the transcripts from those press conferences, which are supplied by Hansard to the Office of the Prime Minister. It is important to note that the transcripts have not been edited ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme scrapped
    The Government has axed the $16 billion Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme championed by the previous government, Energy Minister Simeon Brown says. “This hugely wasteful project was pouring money down the drain at a time when we need to be reining in spending and focussing on rebuilding the economy and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • NZ welcomes further pause in fighting in Gaza
    New Zealand welcomes the further one-day extension of the pause in fighting, which will allow the delivery of more urgently-needed humanitarian aid into Gaza and the release of more hostages, Foreign Minister Winston Peters said. “The human cost of the conflict is horrific, and New Zealand wants to see the violence ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Condolences on passing of Henry Kissinger
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters today expressed on behalf of the New Zealand Government his condolences to the family of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who has passed away at the age of 100 at his home in Connecticut. “While opinions on his legacy are varied, Secretary Kissinger was ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Backing our kids to learn the basics
    Every child deserves a world-leading education, and the Coalition Government is making that a priority as part of its 100-day plan. Education Minister Erica Stanford says that will start with banning cellphone use at school and ensuring all primary students spend one hour on reading, writing, and maths each day. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • US Business Summit Speech – Regional stability through trade
    I would like to begin by echoing the Prime Minister’s thanks to the organisers of this Summit, Fran O’Sullivan and the Auckland Business Chamber.  I want to also acknowledge the many leading exporters, sector representatives, diplomats, and other leaders we have joining us in the room. In particular, I would like ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Keynote Address to the United States Business Summit, Auckland
    Good morning. Thank you, Rosemary, for your warm introduction, and to Fran and Simon for this opportunity to make some brief comments about New Zealand’s relationship with the United States.  This is also a chance to acknowledge my colleague, Minister for Trade Todd McClay, Ambassador Tom Udall, Secretary of Foreign ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • India New Zealand Business Council Speech, India as a Strategic Priority
    Good morning, tēnā koutou and namaskar. Many thanks, Michael, for your warm welcome. I would like to acknowledge the work of the India New Zealand Business Council in facilitating today’s event and for the Council’s broader work in supporting a coordinated approach for lifting New Zealand-India relations. I want to also ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Coalition Government unveils 100-day plan
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has laid out the Coalition Government’s plan for its first 100 days from today. “The last few years have been incredibly tough for so many New Zealanders. People have put their trust in National, ACT and NZ First to steer them towards a better, more prosperous ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

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