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A point on the long wait

Written By: - Date published: 10:48 am, November 3rd, 2023 - 32 comments

Today we will get the final election counts. It will now include the estimated specials of 20.2% of the vote. This can change the precise balance in parliament. A NAct coalition will probably require a partner party to secure a reliable majority. Unfortunately past political history is going to make that awkward. The chaos will be great for a political blog of the left. Not so good for the country.

National’s gang policy has no foundation

Written By: - Date published: 9:15 am, October 27th, 2023 - 35 comments

National’s Mark Mitchell has proposed a law that will require Gang Members to apply foundation to any gang insignia tattoos before they can go out into the public.

Don’t get angry, get organised

Written By: - Date published: 10:58 am, October 23rd, 2023 - 87 comments

Labour day is a good day for all progressives to start getting organised for the next three years and working on the election of the next progressive Government.

How the special votes may work out

Written By: - Date published: 8:18 am, October 17th, 2023 - 57 comments

Special vote counts may see Labour win back some important electorate seats and see the National/Act majority vanish.

NZ Election result

Written By: - Date published: 6:03 am, October 17th, 2023 - 45 comments

In parliamentary politics, there are no final victories. After losing the 2023 election, Labour must now immediately focus on winning in 2026.

That was not as good as was hoped for

Written By: - Date published: 9:52 am, October 15th, 2023 - 129 comments

Last night was not a good night for the Labour Party …

Neck and neck

Written By: - Date published: 8:12 pm, October 13th, 2023 - 8 comments

Last post before election day but the big mo is on and the election is getting closer and closer.

About last night’s debate

Written By: - Date published: 8:21 am, October 13th, 2023 - 42 comments

It is very clear now why National did not agree to a further debate between the leaders. Last night’s debate between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luzon was totally one sided.

Down to the wire

Written By: - Date published: 8:06 am, October 12th, 2023 - 52 comments

Two new polls were released last night and they both confirm a tightening of the race with the right slumping and the left improving.

Multimillionaire landlords are the real squeezed middle according to National

Written By: - Date published: 8:20 am, October 11th, 2023 - 24 comments

Craig Rennie of the CTU has continued his excellent work analysing National’s proposed tax cuts and has come up with a doozie.  Landlords who own multiple properties will get huge tax cuts if National’s policy is put in place.

Labour surges in latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:55 am, October 11th, 2023 - 82 comments

A new poll has Labour surging into the 30s, Act continuing its decline and National going backward. This election is not over.

Managing Expectations: Community transmission of coronavirus in NZ was inevitable

Written By: - Date published: 6:05 am, October 10th, 2023 - 5 comments

The sad thing about the NZ COVID response is that overall it did deliver in that it protected the public health system and saved lives. But expectations about stopping all community transmission were set too high, and walking back from that politically has been challenging for Labour.

Winston Peters? I barely know him

Written By: - Date published: 10:50 am, October 9th, 2023 - 46 comments

National has over the past couple of weeks indicated that it will ring Winston if it needs his votes, then saying that if he negotiates too hard it will seek a further election. This is real coalition of chaos stuff.

The Big Mo

Written By: - Date published: 11:49 am, October 8th, 2023 - 48 comments

Recent polls suggest that National and Act is going backward while Labour has stabilised. A win for the left is possible but this last week will be all important.

Like two cats in a sack

Written By: - Date published: 1:38 pm, October 6th, 2023 - 15 comments

The minor leader’s debate last night confirmed the fact that David Seymour and Winston Peters hate each other.

National’s credibility problem

Written By: - Date published: 9:34 am, October 6th, 2023 - 31 comments

National has suffered further damage to its credibility with its promise of a $250 tax cut per fortnight for an average family only being realised if that family spent at least $300 per week on childcare and was a two income family with each adult earning between $53,500 and $66,000.

Managing Expectations – the NZ Housing crisis and Labour’s response.

Written By: - Date published: 6:15 am, October 6th, 2023 - 42 comments

Watching the 2023 election campaign in New Zealand, one of Labour’s challenges appears to be that it has failed to manage voters’ expectations over the last six years. Recalling the election campaign in 2017, Jacinda Ardern gave people hope that politics could be different. However government is about handling problems – like building at scale and pandemics.

Why can’t National answer straight forward questions about the Council of Trade Union’s critique of their tax policy?

Written By: - Date published: 10:38 am, October 5th, 2023 - 40 comments

National’s tax policy doesn’t add up, and they’re trashing election and media conventions to avoid accountability. UPDATED.

National set to renege on Paris Agreement

Written By: - Date published: 10:10 am, October 5th, 2023 - 16 comments

National says it is not interested in meeting its financial obligations under the international Paris Agreement on climate change, signed by the previous National government. Reneging on the accord will have huge trade, diplomatic and reputational damage implications.

Even Capitalists think that too much Capitalism is a bad thing

Written By: - Date published: 8:15 am, October 5th, 2023 - 9 comments

In recent times Goldman Sax has warned National that its policies will hurt the economy. And S&P has praised Labour’s handling of the economy and expressed a high assessment of various factors relating to the country.

The weird and wacky 2023 election campaign

Written By: - Date published: 11:22 am, October 4th, 2023 - 30 comments

In a week of weird events National’s decision not to debate Labour in the Press’s leader’s debate has been a massive own goal because the country will be able to see how toxic David Seymour’s and Winston Peters’ relationship is.

Should you be more worried about co-governance or the top 1%?

Written By: - Date published: 1:13 pm, October 3rd, 2023 - 52 comments

To the those voting ACT or NZF or National this year because you are worried about co-governance. I have a secret for you. You have been co-governed by the richest 1% for decades.

Skyfall comes to Wellington

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, October 1st, 2023 - 5 comments

Skyfall was 10 years ago but it has a message for all public servants local or central as you choose your vote.

What really matters this election – poverty

Written By: - Date published: 11:50 am, September 30th, 2023 - 38 comments

National has shown its real priorities with proposals to cut benefits that will pay for increased tax concessions for landlords and increasing prison resources in anticipation of the crime wave the increased poverty will cause.

Hipkins goes on the offensive

Written By: - Date published: 8:46 am, September 29th, 2023 - 39 comments

Chris Hipkins has upped the ante in the election campaign by directly calling out the right’s use of dog whistle racism.

Winston adds to National’s tax cut credibility problem

Written By: - Date published: 2:18 pm, September 27th, 2023 - 26 comments

National’s failure to adequately explain how its new revenue policies will work has seen its support sag. And its problem is that if it depends on Winston Peters for confidence and supply he has expressed major reservations about these policies and there is no guarantee he will support them. And a significant majority of New Zealanders understand this.

Even Mike Hosking thinks that a National-Act-NZ First coalition would be an absolute disaster

Written By: - Date published: 10:22 am, September 26th, 2023 - 63 comments

As the polls show a further slump in support for the right and as Winston Peters emerges as a kingmaker there is growing concern about the possibility of a real coalition of chaos being elected.

National’s back of the envelope $715 million tax calculation

Written By: - Date published: 8:58 am, September 25th, 2023 - 39 comments

Nicola Willis has essentially confirmed that the design of National’s foreign purchase of land tax was and remains sufficient to be done on the back of an envelope.

National really, really needs New Zealand to be in a recession

Written By: - Date published: 7:59 am, September 24th, 2023 - 22 comments

After Stats NZ shot down National’s claim that the country is in recession National pirouetted by claiming that New Zealand WILL be in recession in the near future and that the Reserve Bank has predicted this. But according to the Reserve Bank this may not be true …

NZ Election: National’s tax policy

Written By: - Date published: 9:07 am, September 21st, 2023 - 7 comments

A year ago this month, the Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwarteng mini-budget destroyed once and for all the myth that the Tories are better at managing the economy. The New Zealand National Party could not even wait until they were in government to prove the same applies to them.

Understanding the New Zealand General Election 2023: Historical trends and perspectives.

Written By: - Date published: 6:01 am, September 20th, 2023 - 15 comments

From the outside, the New Zealand 2023 General Election seems both lacklustre and slightly strange. The Labour Government, having won a huge majority in 2020 is now fighting for its political life. Yet National, the main centre-right opposition party is still on average polling significantly worse now than they were when it lost power in 2017.

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