election 2011
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Goff on the year ahead
Written By: - Date published: 11:19 am, January 4th, 2011 - 38 comments
Following Key’s ‘I’ll have a hissy fit and quit if you don’t re-elect me’ interview yesterday, the Herald has an interview with Phil Goff. The contrast is stark between smile and wave’s self-centred answers and Goff’s focus on delivering real results for NZ.
The big factor for election 2011 – petrol prices
Written By: - Date published: 5:50 pm, January 3rd, 2011 - 67 comments
I’ve been traveling around for Christmas/New Year’s. It hadn’t hit me until I drove about 1000kms around NZ just how much more expensive petrol has become. The extra cost is a shock when you fill up and it hurts the economy. I got wondering what the political impact is. The numbers suggest it matters a lot.
Locking in the narrative
Written By: - Date published: 11:51 am, January 2nd, 2011 - 61 comments
Having a read of Fairfax’s 2011 political predictions, and their self-grading of their 2010 predictions, two things jumped out. The first is that Fairfax’s political staff have now wedded their reputations as political analysts to a National victory. The second is that they ignore the impact of the economy, and petrol prices in particular, on politics.
Phil Twyford for Te Atatu candidate
Written By: - Date published: 6:01 pm, December 18th, 2010 - 25 comments
Phil Twyford is selected as the new Labour candidate for Te Atatu from a strong field.
Phil Twyford is a formidable campaigner, as I know from past experience. I almost pity whatever sacrificial lamb that National put up in that electorate.
A smart speech from Goff
Written By: - Date published: 7:16 am, December 7th, 2010 - 87 comments
Goff has given several excellent policy speeches this year, and the last one was no exception. Squarely targeted at a middle New Zealand that saw little of National’s tax cuts and far more of their job losses and rising prices. Pointing out the obvious, that National has failed to deliver on the economy, and has no viable plan to do so. In short, a great platform for election year.
NZF poll is wrong
Written By: - Date published: 7:34 am, December 6th, 2010 - 77 comments
Great excitement in the Sunday papers over Winston Peters / NZF. “Poll puts NZ First back in contention”! “Peters the kingmaker again”! Don’t believe a word of it.
Labour’s Brotherly Dynamic Duo
Written By: - Date published: 11:30 am, November 30th, 2010 - 38 comments
They’ve already been dubbed NZ’s David and Ed Milliband.
Brothers David and Ben Clark will both be standing for Labour in the 2011 general election. David is standing for the safe Dunedin North seat, while Ben will be taking on Wayne Mapp on the North Shore.
Both would do well as MPs.
New Left Party coming, or is it?
Written By: - Date published: 12:29 pm, November 29th, 2010 - 100 comments
Matt McCarten is doing the dance of the seven veils on the issue of a new Left Party. He and the other players have been denying they have anything planned but, at the same time, have spoken of the need for such a party, as Labour paddles around in circles, and said they might join were such a party to eventuate. I say go for it.
Confidence in govt falls on Hobbit debacle
Written By: - Date published: 11:38 am, November 10th, 2010 - 47 comments
The latest Roy Morgan poll shows confidence in government plummeted during the Hobbit debacle. It shows confidence in government falling to a new low for Key’s administration. At the beginning of the year, nearly three-quarters of the population agreed the country was heading in the right direction. Barely 50% do now.
New Left Party?
Written By: - Date published: 11:20 am, November 7th, 2010 - 209 comments
The rumour mill has been buzzing since a couple of commenters here let slip about Matt McCarten’s run in the Mana by-election. Word around the traps is the campaign will be used to launch a new Left Party with McCarten, Hone Harawira, Sue Bradford and others. It’s an exciting possibility.
The Google poll
Written By: - Date published: 7:43 am, November 7th, 2010 - 23 comments
It seems that in American elections there is an almost perfect correspondence between some candidates’ opinion polling and their current search volume on Google. Can we do away with political opinion polls? Sounds interesting doesn’t it. A quick check shows that the relative frequency of searches for “National party” and “Labour party” predicted the result of the 2008 election. What other tricks can we try?
Labour policy Maori policy
Written By: - Date published: 8:18 am, October 23rd, 2010 - 20 comments
In a press release last week Tariana Turia claimed that Labour’s new policy directions are all Maori Party policies. That puts the Maori Party in an interesting position after the next election. Will the major party that they support be dictated by their policies, Labour’s policies, as Turia claims? Or will their support be dictated by other, non-policy factors?
The failing polls..
Written By: - Date published: 4:58 pm, October 16th, 2010 - 12 comments
An article in The Economist looks at the failing basis of polling techniques in the USA. It isn’t that much different to the circumstances here.
“The proportion of those called who end up taking part in a survey has fallen steadily, from 35% or so in the 1990s to 15% or less now, according to Mr Keeter. Reaching young people is especially difficult. Only old ladies answer the phone…”
Lessons for Labour?
Written By: - Date published: 8:39 am, October 16th, 2010 - 53 comments
An Authoritarian Act
Written By: - Date published: 2:52 pm, August 18th, 2010 - 14 comments
So Rodney can’t keep 4 other people on side. The liberal and authoritarian split in Act has had its blood-letting and the authoritarians have won. Where will the neo-liberal idealogues go? And how will Epsom react to this change in philosophy in a year’s time?
Victory within reach, if they’ll grab for it
Written By: - Date published: 11:07 am, August 2nd, 2010 - 48 comments
Labour has, to date, failed to give the people who voted for it 3 of the last 4 elections a reason to come back. But that doesn’t mean all is lost. The Left is not just Labour. A 5% shift in the polls, the same scale as the shift that has already happened this past year, would be all it takes to get those numbers even and make the Maori Party – or maybe Winston – kingmaker.
Labour can win led by Phil Goff
Written By: - Date published: 5:28 pm, July 31st, 2010 - 146 comments
Chris Carter is wrong. Labour can win the next election led by Phil Goff. The objective conditions make it possible, and there is enough time. That’s true even if Key calls an early election to gain the financial benefits of National’s new electoral law, as some have predicted on this site. First the objective conditions. […]
Empty promises on employment law
Written By: - Date published: 7:02 am, July 22nd, 2010 - 29 comments
National’s promises aren’t worth the paper that they’re printed on. They’ve broken plenty and downgraded most of the rest to “aspirational goals”. Now John Key’s current anti-worker employment policies add a whole new chapter to the list of broken election promises.
Fixing the election date
Written By: - Date published: 7:23 am, July 17th, 2010 - 10 comments
Pundit writer and legal academic Andrew Geddis has been doing some important work on electoral law, including contributions to the select committee that is looking at the 2011 referendum on MMP and the reform of campaign funding practices. You should head on over to Pundit and have a look.
A July election?
Written By: - Date published: 6:54 am, July 8th, 2010 - 24 comments
First term governments don’t usually go early but this isn’t your average first term government.
Will the tories go early to lock in a second term?
And if they do will we get a blitzkrieg policy run if they win?
Labour’s lineup emerges
Written By: - Date published: 1:43 pm, July 6th, 2010 - 50 comments
Labour’s lineup for the next election is emerging, the usual balance between continuity and new talent. There will be some interesting electorate selections coming up. Such personality politics is always very popular of course, but more important than the people is the policy…
Grass roots and astroturf
Written By: - Date published: 7:56 am, June 28th, 2010 - 23 comments
National are still cruising in the polls, and no doubt feeling pretty confident about the next election. But ticking the blue box is easy – how firm is that support? We’re seeing big protests against this government. Is there any significant National policy that isn’t attracting popular protest, criticism from the experts, or both?
Assets the big issue for 2011
Written By: - Date published: 12:07 am, June 22nd, 2010 - 15 comments
The post-Budget bump for National in the Roy Morgan polls was there but was small and it’s already evaporating. Fundamentally, National’s policies just aren’t popular,as the poll showing 80% opposition to asset sales proves. National is still pursuing privatisation by stealth (whanua ora, PEDA, water etc), giving the Left an opportunity make public assets the big issue of 2011.
Maori Party sell-out opens opportunity for Greens
Written By: - Date published: 10:50 am, June 16th, 2010 - 78 comments
Of the political parties in Parliament, only the Greens are likely to oppose the ‘new’ foreshore and seabed law. So, the Greens will be the only place for disaffected Maori Party voters to turn to. And why not? Their values are very similar. I expect that the Greens will make a strong play for the party votes in the Maori seats, winning over a lot of people who feel betrayed by the Maori Party.
Dancing on a head of a pin on asset sales
Written By: - Date published: 8:36 am, June 5th, 2010 - 59 comments
National really, really wants to sell assets – it’ll be worth a fortune to their rich mates who can’t seem to generate any success on their own without a government hand out. But the public is firmly against asset sales. It would be an election losing campaign issue. So, National will play a game of ambiguous promises and confusing financial moves to sell without appearing to sell.
Electoral Reform Needs Fixing
Written By: - Date published: 8:31 am, June 5th, 2010 - 5 comments
Two Electoral Reform bills are currently accepting submissions, and each contain one particularly large flaw. Firstly, as I commented on the Electoral (Finance Reform and Advance Voting) Amendment Bill: getting rid of the 3 month election period is a very dangerous move. National have now decided that the election period only starts on the day […]
Help the Campaign for MMP, they’re Internet illiterates
Written By: - Date published: 12:11 am, May 9th, 2010 - 53 comments
One thing that the election in Britain brought home to me, was how much I’m grateful for having Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) representation here. I didn’t start that way. Over time, I’ve grown to appreciate the gradual progress and stability offered by MMP. However the people at the Campaign for MMP could do with a little help in the Internet age. They’re operating like it was 1993.
English: do what we need to do to win
Written By: - Date published: 3:17 pm, May 8th, 2010 - 23 comments
Bill English is trying to assuage National Party member who are concerned that the Party is betraying its principles (ha!) and giving too much to the Maori Party saying “all those decisions are being made in the context of the longer-term view, reaching our objectives over the next four or five years” – winning a second term trumps principle. It’s about power for its own sake.
Choices are becoming clear
Written By: - Date published: 3:00 pm, April 29th, 2010 - 39 comments
The choices between Labour and National are becoming clearer by the day. Next election the public is going to be offered two very different futures for New Zealand. Not between Labour and a dissembling “Labour Lite”, but between Labour and the true National agenda exposed.
Will Winston be back in 2011?
Written By: - Date published: 7:41 am, April 10th, 2010 - 100 comments
In politics nothing lasts forever. That is it seems, except the Rt Hon Winston Peters. The latest Roy Morgan poll has NZ First at 3%, just below the 5% threshold (Nats 49%, Lab 33%). With Peters once again creeping back into the media spotlight, you’ve got to wonder: Will Rodney Hide’s nightmare come true with the return of Winston Peters to Parliament in 2011?
A Power grab?
Written By: - Date published: 9:29 pm, February 25th, 2010 - 11 comments
The Electoral (Administration) Amendment Bill would allow Simon Power to appoint a new Chief Electoral Officer and new Electoral Commissioners for the 2011 election. This is wrong. These officials must be completely independent, they must not be or be seen to be political appointees.
- The Unity Books bestseller chart for the week ending November 15
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Loading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A,DIV,A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp');Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. .wp-block-newspack-blocks-homepage-articles article .entry-title { font-size: 1.2em; } .wp-block-newspack-blocks-homepage-articles .entry-meta { display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; align-items: center; margin-top: 0.5em; } .wp-block-newspack-blocks-homepage-articles article .entry-meta { font-size: 0.8em; } .wp-block-newspack-blocks-homepage-articles article .avatar { height: 25px; width: ...1 week ago
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- Daily crossword, Friday 15 November
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- Newsroom daily quiz, Thursday 14 November
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