Caution: Taking polling at face value may induce political whiplash

Written By: - Date published: 10:07 am, July 31st, 2017 - 114 comments
Categories: election 2017, MMP, polls - Tags: , , ,

This is a Guest Post from Matthew Whitehead. Matthew is a writer, programmer, Green party member, and electoral reform activist.

A new Colmar Brunton poll was recently released, having finished at the 27th of July, and as usual, the media is dramatizing its results without appropriate caution. It does potentially represent a shift in party voting trends, as the Greens had their recent and explosive announcement about welfare policy, so there’s a chance these changes are in fact real, but it’s still no reason to panic, you need to be looking at three polls in a row saying roughly the same thing before you can really absolutely conclude it’s probably correct, and political events often move faster than that, so a lot of the time we honestly don’t know.

I talk a lot about my feelings and speculation in online political debate, but I think it’s time to have a discussion about polling and the cold, hard facts around it, so that nobody panics at this poll, which I overall think is actually good news.

Every poll needs to be taken with four different grains of salt beyond just looking at the party vote percentages. They are:

  • Trend lines
  • Margins of error
  • Coalition arrangements and electorate seats
  • The lean of the polling organisation

Let’s take them one by one.

Trend Lines

Looking at just one poll in isolation is a bad idea, for several reasons. Firstly, as some have noted, polls jump up and down. Plotting polling on a graph looks a little like measuring an earthquake. This is at least partly due to margins of error, but it’s why more serious poll-watchers take a “poll of polls” approach to measuring political changes. Combine this with notations of significant political events and it makes it quite reliable to view both general trends and what campaigning tactics have been effective.

It is incorrect to say that these jumps up and down indicate “unreliability” in and of themselves. What really indicates unreliability is jumps that exceed the margin of error with no corresponding trend or explanation, and if you get such a jump more than one time in twenty1.

Overall, the trendline for polling since John Key has resigned has Labour and the Greens heading upwards when taken together, and National heading downwards.

Margins of Error and Undecided Voters

Lets look for a moment at the results of the Colmar Brunton poll. They were:

National: 47% (N/C) (about 58 seats)
Labour: 24% (-3%) (about 29 seats)
Greens: 15% (+4%) (about 18 seats)
New Zealand First: 11% (N/C) (about 14 seats)
TOP: 2% (N/C) (below threshold)
Māori Party: 1% (-1%) (single electorate seat)
ACT/UF/Mana: Let’s assume they win their electorates.

Majority: 62 seats.

Bottom line if this poll were the general election result: NZ First decides the government, with Mana and Māori party also needed for a left-wing coalition, a difficult proposition.

Now, you’ll frequently hear that the maximum margin of error for a poll like this is 3.1%. This number will differ based on the number of people polled, but almost always the goal for a polling company is to have 1,000 respondents, which lets them have a 95% chance of a 3.1% maximum margin of error.

That 3.1% doesn’t mean that any 3.1% of the results could be misallocated. What it means is, when you’re trying to draw a conclusion as to how big two mutually exclusive groups are, if each group is sized 50%, your numbers could be out by up to 3.1%. It will be less at smaller levels of support, such as Labour Voters vs Non-Labour voters, or ACT voters vs Non-ACT voters.

So, responsibly reported, the results start to look more like this:

National: 44%-50% (-3%/+3%)
Labour: 21.5%-26.5% (-5.5%/-0.5%, 2.5% MoE)
Greens: 13%-17% (+2%/+6%, 2% MoE)
New Zealand First: 9%-13% (-2%/+2%)
TOP: 1.4%-2.6% (-0.6%/+0.6%)
Māori Party: 0.7%-1.3% (-1.3%/-0.7%, 0.3% MoE)

(These are rounded, to the nearest half percent for over-threshold parties, and to the nearest per mille for small parties. It’s very difficult to generate a seat estimate for these because we can’t actually be sure it’ll add up to 100%)

Believe it or not, none of these changes are large enough to be 100% sure that the change from the previous Colmar Brunton poll to this poll is down to anything other than fluctuation within the margin of error. (you need a huge leap where neither margin “touches” the other to do that) They are big enough that Labour’s, the Greens’, and the Māori Party’s results likely are down to more than that, but we don’t know for sure, as the margins of error for each poll need to have no overlap at all for that to happen. It’s only if later polls back this one up that we can really draw a conclusion.

When looking at the margin of error, you should also remember that both the minimum and maximum bounds of that margin are very unlikely. Think as if there’s a normal curve inside that margin and you’ll get the idea. So National are very likely to be within 2% in either direction, and there are at least even odds they’re within 1% of the polled figure, but it’s still possible that the poll is up to 3% off.

Colmar hasn’t posted their full results yet, but they do tweet their undecided numbers. Adjusting to exclude people who refused to respond sufficiently, those numbers are 16.7%, or to put in the margins of error, there are only between 81% and 85.6% of voters polled who have actually decided who they’ll give their Party Vote to. That means there is a huge potential for late voters to decide this election, and if past experience is correct, those late deciders are likely to break for New Zealand First, Labour, and National.

Coalition arrangements and electorate seats

A lot of poll-watching reporting talks about likely coalition arrangements. The only definite things we should be assuming this stage is that the Greens and Labour are going to co-operate, and that United Future, ACT, and National are going to be co-operating, electorate votes permitting. We can reasonably assume that if Mana are returned to Parliament, Hone will refuse to co-operate with National, but won’t necessarily support Labour. And the Māori Party and New Zealand First have both refused to say, or give any reliable criteria for who they will decide to give preference to in any coalition talks, and any speculation on the topic is just that.

Even this poll, which trumpets itself as a “historic low” for Labour, fundamentally doesn’t change the coalition maths if we assume it will accurately depict the general election: (which it won’t, no poll has ever done better than getting within its margin of error, and some don’t even manage that) Winston is highly likely to control who can form a government.

Beyond that, nobody polls electorate seats, and they frequently change hands in unexpected ways for minor parties. There is no guarantee, even running against Greg O’Connor, (which theoretically may cancel out the advantage of the Greens withdrawing Tane Woodley from the race) that Peter Dunne will retain Ōhāriu. There is no guarantee Te Ururoa Flavell will retain Waiariki, and there is no guarantee that Kelvin Davis won’t lose Te Tai Tokerau back to Hone Harawira now that a certain German albatross is out from around his neck and the Māori Party has agreed not to contest that electorate. There’s no guarantee that even if the Māori Party lose Waiariki, that Marama Fox won’t manage to take Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, now that she’s not also fighting the Mana Party there. There’s even no guarantee that Raf Manji won’t manage to steal Ilam from Gerry Brownlee and remove the 120th List seat from Parliament2. The only information we have on these contests is guesses, and nobody is making an effort to figure this out before the election. (I don’t know why, a scoop on What’s Likely To Happen In Ōhāriu is far more valuable media fodder than the latest party vote poll, and people will be just as interested in Te Tai Tokerau)

In short, assuming previous electorate winners will retain their seats is just as wrong an assumption as assuming that all minor party challengers will win theirs.


And this is where we get to why this is actually a good result.

Different polling companies have different methods, reach different audiences, and therefore have different factors that might lean the results one way or the other compared to an actual general election. Colmar Brunton, for instance, doesn’t poll cellphones to my knowledge. They ask questions in different ways, decide if someone is an undecided voter in different ways, and talk to different numbers of respondents. All of their methods tend to be adequate practice in the industry, but that’s not to say many of them couldn’t improve.

While generally all well-intentioned, these actually influence whether a given party performs better in their poll than in elections (“over-polls”) or the reverse. (“under-polls”) There are general trends for two of the parties when compared to the poll of polls, but compared to other New Zealand polls relative to the average of all polls, and looking at the trend of their polling compared to the 2014 election results, Colmar Brunton tends to do the following:

  • Over-poll National.
  • Under-poll Labour.
  • Slightly under-poll the Greens.
  • Very slightly under-poll New Zealand First.

This isn’t to say that their performance in the 2017 election will continue to show that trend, but it means you should be sceptical of Colmar Brunton offering high results for National or low results for opposition parties, and likewise, certain other companies, like say, Roy Morgan, might have the opposite trends in how their responses tend to favour certain parties. This means you should really look at Colmar Brunton to confirm if drops for National’s support in Roy Morgan are likely to be real, and at Roy Morgan for whether drops in Labour’s support in the Colmar Brunton polls are.

To illustrate, let’s look at the most recent Roy Morgan:

National: 40%-46% (about 53 seats)
Labour: 27.7%-33.3% (about 37 seats)
Green Party: 11.4%-15.6% (about 17 seats)
New Zealand First: 6.3%-9.7% (about 10 seats)
Other: (incl. TOP) 1.7%-3.3% (below threshold)
Māori Party: 1%-2% (about 2 seats)
ACT: 0.7%-1.3% (single electorate seat)

Now, I expect that National’s real level of support is actually somewhere between the 40% minimum (or 43% estimate) of Roy Morgan and the 50% maximum (or 47% estimate) of Colmar Brunton. But it doesn’t serve us to panic. CB claimed no change, so National is more likely somewhere around 45% right now. That’s about 55 seats. That likely means they will need New Zealand First to govern, even if for some reason the Māori Party’s constituents tell them to work with National before Labour. Labour’s real job leading up to the campaign is to pivot in a way similar to what the Greens seem to have just done, whatever direction that pivot actually goes, and reclaim 4% or so of the vote. (Remember, Labour may be down 3 points in this CB poll, but the Greens were up 4- that means the whole coalition is likely up 1 point.

This poll, confusingly given both the coverage and Little’s reaction this morning, is good news, as it gets us closer to a position where New Zealand First will look stupid if it works with National, or even where Labour and the Greens don’t need them, and can talk to the Māori and/or Mana Parties about ensuring they can run a minority government, assuming they get their second MP and Mana gets Te Tai Tokerau)

Labour and the Greens together in the early July Roy Morgan, before Metiria’s welfare policy announcement, were polling 44%, (+4.5%) . In the Colmar Brunton, they’re polling 39%, (+1%) so even though I’m waiting for another couple polls to celebrate, I’m remembering the important thing: Labour and the Greens, taken together, are trending upwards. The Greens, the more progressive party of the two, is also doing well within that pre-election coalition. We might need to rely on New Zealand First to change the government, and I really don’t like that, but I’ll take it if I have to, especially if Labour makes sure they don’t get in any of their more racist policies.

1 Even a completely unflawed polling method should still throw up an anomaly or “rogue poll” 5% of the time. Roy Morgan, the company frequently cited as unreliable, has had one identifiable rogue in all the time I’ve tracked it, with Colmar Brunton having had two, for instance, while delivering less polls and at irregular intervals outside election campaigns. I generally trust that Roy Morgan is the most accurate company polling in New Zealand, although I completely ignore their commentary on their numbers because it’s complete fiction. This is because it both has some superior methodology, (such as polling cellphones) and because it did very well at predicting the trend for the 2014 election.

2 And that’s a whole other mess to explain. Independents don’t get overhang seats, they remove a seat from the list calculation altogether. So effectively whoever will have won the 120th list seat in Parliament has it “stolen” from them by the independent candidate. It’s most likely to be either National or Labour, but there’s no guarantee. It could be any list candidate who loses out if Raf Manji wins, and he would side with National at least as much as Peter Dunne does, so if Labour or the Greens lose a list seat to him, it’s really bad news. And there’s no way to know until every single vote is in. Why we decided to do things this way just for independents boggles the mind, frankly, but I suppose it was considered more likely that a large number of independents would win electorates than that you’d end up with a large electorate-based party.

114 comments on “Caution: Taking polling at face value may induce political whiplash ”

  1. One Anonymous Bloke 1

    if past experience is correct

    Under what circumstances do pollsters get it completely wrong? When past experience is derailed by some new narrative?

    • So, that comment was in context talking about the past experience of Who Undecideds Tend To Vote For. It tends to be bad for the Greens, and good for New Zealand First, and good for one or the other of National or Labour in recent MMP elections. The difficulty I have in saying for sure where undecideds will break is that 2017 is a dramatically different political landscape even to 2014.

      We have never had a pre-election coalition in New Zealand before. We’ve also never had a Labour Party this obviously floundering. Even under Cunliffe, the disunity didn’t lead to their leadership and strategy teams dropping the ball, they were just up against some hard political rhetoric to top and had to deal with an openly rebellious caucus. Likewise, Bill English isn’t impressing anyone particularly as PM, he’s basically got your bare minimum boost from being in the office in the Preferred PM stakes, and the National vote is slowly trending down, which is a worrying sign for them given that the over-polled in 2014, (likely due to late deciders breaking for Labour and NZ First) so it’s possible their vote will be even lower than it currently is if that trend holds in 2017. And then there’s the fact that we have a second undeclared wild card party in the Māori Party.

      We also don’t know how undecideds feel about the idea of a weak Labour Party leading a coalition. There are plenty of National voters against it, but it’s possible the undecideds will break to National if they’re sympathetic to the idea that the largest party should lead the government. I don’t think that’s a very MMP idea, but then again, there is a significant minority that don’t like MMP very much.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 1.1.1

        Not so much undecideds, their opinions have been counted. I was thinking more of people who have previously disengaged in politics to the extent that their views never register.

        Or is that even a thing? 🙂

        • Those people, if polled, would be called “undecideds,” assuming they actually count in polling. (some companies screen people who admit they didn’t vote last election under a “likely voter” policy, and don’t even count them as undecided. CB says in their results breakdowns that they screen for eligible voters, which implies they don’t screen for “likely voters”)

          Clearly, we would expect that the extra 1% of new Green supporters that presumably didn’t come from Labour were feeling disengaged, as the extra Green support doesn’t seem to have come from either National or New Zealand First, who have both changed so little that it’s rounded out to nothing. The probabilities don’t guarantee that this is what happened, but it’s the most likely explanation, and we’ll see for sure when we get the next Roy Morgan coming in.

          Back to your original question now I understand it, pollsters generally get things dramatically wrong (ie. outside their margins of error) when the polling method is measuring something that doesn’t correspond with how people actually vote. So for instance, 2016 polling correctly predicted the popular vote for President in the USA- Hillary Clinton won, and was within the margin of error for where the pre-election polls had her support. But Donald Trump became president because of narrow victories in key states that weren’t adequately polled, and in which Clinton’s strategy was terrible.

          Likewise, Preferred Prime Minister is terrible at predicting when Labour is going to unseat National as the government, because people don’t usually like Labour candidates as much before they become PM, (Clark polled about 15% in preferred PM before she was elected) but there’s no good evidence that left-wing voters decide their party vote on who the PM would be, whereas there’s a reasonable correlation (but no clear indication of whether there’s even a causal link, or which way it runs) between the National Party’s performance in Preferred PM polling and their party vote.

          • One Anonymous Bloke

            it’s the most likely explanation

            I was sure it was just my wishful thinking 🙂

        • RedLogix

          The left have to win elections without Winston. The core left-wing bloc is hovering around 40%, we need to get it over 45%.

          There are several ways to do this:

          1. Pull votes off National. It looks like their core tribal vote is about 40%, which only leaves 2 – 7% who may be soft and willing to consider the jump left from a right wing to leftish economic agenda. This feels like hard work.

          2. Pull votes off NZ1. I see NZ1 as economically aligned with the left, but socially to the right of National. I see their core support at around 10% and even harder to move than National’s.

          3. Motivate the ‘missing million’ to vote left. If this was easy we would have done it already, but these are a group who pretty much regard politicians as as something less pleasant than something you might find rotting under the refrigerator. By definition this group is non-tribal, or even anti-tribal. Politics as usual will not and does not work for them.

          4. It will be very interesting to see if TOP sustain the increase seen in this poll. While it’s still a tough ask to see them get over 5% (or a seat candidate) they do represent a fresh ‘non-tribal’ conduit for votes to move. Too early to completely write them off, but the left should be awake to their potential as a partner.

          • One Anonymous Bloke

            Politics as usual will not and does not work.

            Funny you should mention that, since most pundits agree that Metiria Turei is not doing “politics as usual”.

          • Matthew Whitehead

            I would like that as well, but it requires Labour to commit to ruling out NZF as well. The Greens would probably say “I jump in it” if asked to fight NZF by Labour. 😉

            Greens have actually been pulling some National voters off slowly, the issue is that Labour has been losing no-voters and the Greens had been losing core voters fast enough that it didn’t make a noticable difference. There is no good indication that Labour is actually pulling back votes from National or NZ First by going sensible centrist.

            I think the Greens have made a good start with Metiria’s strategy this election. We just need to do this on issues other than welfare.

            Working with TOP is not much better than working with NZF, to be quite honest. They’ve got some really out there opinions on social policy, they’re kinda a liberal, evidence-obsessed version of NZF.

            I left all this speculation and opinion out of the post, because, well, I’m calling for people to treat polling as factual information, but with hard statistical limits to how reliable it is.

            • RedLogix

              They’ve got some really out there opinions on social policy, they’re kinda a liberal, evidence-obsessed version of NZF.

              TOP have policy objectives a lot closer to the Greens than anyone else.

              I’m very aware of the limits of what polling can tell us. But to a very high degree of confidence what we DO know is that Labour and the Greens are unlikely to form a govt on their own.

              That means we need a third partner … and that should concentrate our minds because I still see any arrangement with the Greens and NZ1 as irreconcilably unstable.

              • I agree their objectives are close to the Greens, but I was thinking of their blind spots, which are much closer to NZF. They don’t seem to get the importance of social policy, and seem to think that they can lowball spending and taxes at the same time and not suffer any consequences.

                If Labour would actually promise anything other than bland managerialism, they wouldn’t need to be shopping around for partners beyond the Greens. There are a lot of people that want to vote for Labour but don’t feel like they offer them anything. It’s not so much that the party itself is dying, but that it’s forgotten what it stands for, so its traditional supporters are wandering off to its potential coalition partners or simply not intending to vote anymore.

                Any arrangement with NZF in it is unstable. I don’t see the Green and NZF policy objectives as inherently unstable, (you can have a policy mix that supports the environment, and focuses on areas where the Liberal greens and Conservative NZF supporters can agree on, but still gives key concessions to each in negotiable areas. The parties are basically in lockstep on economics wherever it doesn’t touch immigration) but there’s questions as to how distracted Winston would be by the baubles he’d get from being a medium fish in a small pond as opposed to a medium fish swimming with a giant bloody shark if he worked with National.

                • RedLogix

                  It’s not so much that the party itself is dying, but that it’s forgotten what it stands for, so its traditional supporters are wandering off to its potential coalition partners or simply not intending to vote anymore.

                  Exactly what Chris Trotter was writing about years back. I noted last night that TOP are now claiming over 3500 paid up members; I wonder how that compares to Labour these days?

                  Because while David Cunliffe was no Jeremy Corbyn, the NZLP really have just drifted sideways into irrelevancy since they assassinated him. The sad part is that Andrew Little has the potential to be good; now and then he sparks … and then nothing. Frustrating.

                  • red-blooded

                    I agree with the basic analysis of your comment above (about the various challenges involved in pulling votes from different group), RedLogix. I think that what Matthew W is calling “bland managerialism” is an unearned pejorative, though. Labour has plenty of good social policy and solid values. They also know that they only win elections when they persuade the undecideds and soft Nat voters, though. Like it or not, it’s that centre group who decide elections.

                    As for the claims of TOP re paid members, I’d be pretty sceptical.

                    And yes, AL has good days and not-so-good. He has brought unity and (mostly) good judgement to the role. I don’t understand his thinking in saying that he’d offered to stand down, though. That will just become a stick to keep on hitting him and the party with.

                  • As something of a liberal, I feel a little dirty being compared to Chris Trotter, lol.

    • Al 1.2

      Really – how about the recent US election where the polls had Clinton MILES AHEAD but come election day – oh no!

  2. Cynical jester 2

    50 odd days till election yes the polls matter, Oh come on labour has said for three years Andrew Little’s polling doesn’t matter. ..guess what it does.
    They are headed for their worst electoral results in history and it breaks my heart. So much for that party investigation they have learned nothing we are even less popular than under cunliffe.

    Under bone of contention for me is labour still has no media strategy after bitching about a bias media for 6 years they still aren’t savvy.

    If we are are mid 20s or lower…

    The front bench has to resign on election night. Jacinda can stay of course as she’s the most popular mp in the party.

    All labour can do at this point is try stop bleeding support, ditch the script and try raise the party vote so labour is in a better place to govern in 2020. 2017 is a write off!

    • 2017 isn’t a write off, as again, Labour doesn’t win or lose alone when it’s in a pre-election coalition. This poll looks bad because CB always looks bad for Labour, because it leans towards National. If they can get NZ First onside, Labour are still on the path to win, as I don’t actually believe CB’s face-value results that they would need the independent Māori parties to get into government.

      This CB is better for Labour and the Greens together than the last one was. 24% will still get Labour its entire front bench, and a new MP or two besides, in off the list.

      I agree that Labour needs to desperately rethink their strategy, as if they continue trying to out-sensible National they’re going to lose. Labour only ever wins if the have heart, if they play to their own identity. Even Clark got that, as centrist as she liked to govern, and that’s why she remembered not to play the “we’re more sensible” campaign game, at least until 2009.

      • LivinInTheBay 2.1.1

        What about Labour’s internal polling that has them at 23%?

        And that in the last few elections they’ve then dropped on election night?

        • Reid Research’s poll, which is actually pretty good and doesn’t lean too hard any one way, just came out this evening, and it has Labour on 24%. That’s not great, but it’s not exactly in danger of losing Little from Parliament and plunging them into a leadership crisis.

          Labour outperformed the polling trend on election night. It did very slightly worse than the last round of polls, but still above the overall trend, and the polls were all well within the margin of error for where Labour ended up. That’s not a “drop,” that’s just statistical uncertainty in play. See:,_2014

  3. Adrian 3

    I”m trying to get my head around the Andrew Little/poll timeline.
    Its being reported , falsly I feel, that Andrew’s honest musing on his leadership to the party was triggered by the CB poll when his musing preceded even the end of polling. The interview may have even preceded the result in fact.
    I think this is a classic example of the deliberatly dishonest and corrupt reporting that we suffer from in NZ.
    Don’t blame Labour and all its leaders for not getting cut through, its a seriously lopsided game even taking into the equation the lack of French and South African refs.

    • You don’t think Little could have had a discussion with his strategists and senior caucus members last night, and checked if they still endorsed him continuing as leader? It was published at 6pm. Senior politicians don’t go “off the clock” entirely in the evenings the way you do in a normal job, it’s more like being a chief executive where you can get an emergency call at any time.

      If he really wanted to talk about that discussion though, he really should have framed it as “I checked in with my caucus, and they’re all behind me continuing on as leader.” You don’t talk in public about offering to resign during the bloody election campaign, that’s a disastrous idea.

      • Adrian 3.1.1

        I agree about the wrong but honest phasing, but I thought the offer or check was earlier in the week, therefore predating all this bullshit.

      • Karen 3.1.2

        Little said he had the discussion about standing aside as leader last week, presumably based on internal polling. They probably discussed at that time whether they would go public with this if the Colmar Brunton was bad (they would know it was due).

        I guess their reasoning was that media would be asking why don’t you resign so thought it would be a good idea to front foot it. Very, very stupid idea IMO. As a result, a major new Māori policy has had virtually no coverage.

        By the way there is a Newshub Reid poll out tonight.

        • Ah, thanks for clarifying that. I must have missed that info in the interview somehow.

        • LivinInTheBay

          But why then make it public?

          • McFlock

            Because he was asked, and gave an honest answer.

            • Matthew Whitehead

              There are times for being completely honest, and there are times for dodging the question. The only time you don’t dodge a question about whether you’re going to resign is if it’s obvious you’re not, or if you actually are going to resign. Any other time, it’s very foolish to talk about.

        • dukeofurl

          Thats correct . UMR polling for labour last week had even lower numbers

  4. greywarshark 4

    Thanks for the Guest Post which I am going to run off and wallpaper my living room with. What a mighty tome.

    Listening to attack dog Guyon this morning, he had smelt blood and wanted a big bite but Andrew stood up against it and repeated perhaps too patiently what he was about. Over and over. Listen to Winston against the doughty reporters playing broken record you Labour advisors.

    Also have a laugh at Steven Price’s funny but truly useful item on handling difficult political questions. Radionz had it and I hope this is the link.

    • There was a lot to cover. I’m trying to be less verbose but “How To Read Polls without unnecessarily panicking” isn’t something to be done in brief, and it was brief for how much I had to say, lol.

      I don’t actually agree that Guyon was unfair to Little on Morning Report. It was a ridiculous framing to say he considered resigning after this result, and terrible strategy, especially as it’s too early to even know if they’re realistically stuck at 25%. And his tirade at Metiria was incorrect, (again, it’s likely the Greens grabbed more of the vote than Labour lost, even though it’s not certain just yet- we’ll know more when the Roy Morgan releases, likely in a week or two) and undignified for someone with ambitions of being Prime Minister, who should understand that he doesn’t own voters, and that if they like what his coalition partner is saying more they have every right to change their preference.

      • greywarshark 4.1.1

        Your points are good, but he doesn’t want to be wasting his public exposure time with such trivia as Little called it. But knowing that will be the approach by media, one should have some easy jokes or abilities to slide out that Guyon could not have countered. As I said Steven Price may have something worthwhile to offer on his radio item I’ve linked to.

        • Yep, it’s like Labour doesn’t have anyone on staff who knows and cares how the media will handle things. It looks unprofessional rather than genuine.

  5. greywarshark 5

    The link is called – The Incoming Member of Parliament’s Guide to Ducking Questions. 2001-01-06. 12:33. It is about 20 minutes and is a beaut. Here it is again.

    The head-butt required confidence and fortitude that Winston Peters shows.
    Then there is the flip – for those who are less powerful speakers.
    One of the useful phrases that can be used –
    Let me just say this…..
    What I can say is this…
    and others.

    (And i hope I haven’t doubled up on this comment as I got mixed up and I think the system accepted the item again, slightly different as it was then.)

  6. greywarshark 6

    The link is called – The Incoming Member of Parliament’s Guide to Ducking Questions. 2001-01-06. 12:33. It is about 20 minutes and is a beaut. Here it is again.

    The head-butt required confidence and fortitude that Sinston Peters hows.
    Then there is the flip for those who have less power.
    One of the useful phrases that can be used –
    Let me just say this…..
    What I can is this….
    and others.

  7. Adrian 7

    How many of the phoned just say “fuck off “or drop the receiver.
    These are not the 16% undecided, the undecided have given an actual opinion.
    I remember something like 40% from a few elections ago.

  8. Policy Parrot 8

    It simply seems that a lot of erstwhile Labour voters have decamped to Winston, just like in 1996. It’s that 4% he got in 1999 and in 2008 that are his hard core. With NZ First’s end nearer than its start, Labour may need to make space again for a social conservative wing if they are to remain a 40% capable party.

    • I agree some have, but that’s not a feature of this particular latest poll so much as an ongoing trend for 2017.

      I actually think Labour shouldn’t necessarily be trying to square circles, and if it wants to be a party for centrist liberals, it should just get itself a left-wing conservative coalition partner that runs in all those places it needs a Shane Jones or a Stuart Nash.

  9. Treetop 9

    I just hope that people vote strategically on 23 September. This is why National have done so well in the last two elections.

    Winston will grab some of the National vote, he is a threat to them. I would like to see a Labour/ NZ First coalition.

    • It’s hard to vote strategically when that means supporting Greg O’Connor. I have been trying to convince my Dad and stepmother to do so, but I haven’t had much luck. Amusingly, my mother was totally onboard the Never Dunne train from the first stop despite being pretty idealogical about some things.

      • Treetop 9.1.1

        Of all the new candidates to stand at the next general election O’Connor is the most interesting. I was surprised when I found out that he was not a National supporter. O’Connor will have a lot to say about the police, he will keep advocating for them. I think he will beat Dunne.

  10. dukeofurl 10

    Another point should be the ‘theoretical margin of error’ is as described when the
    sample of people polled is an exact match to the population that votes.

    Realistically thats hard to do. From the British election, we know one of the reasons they were out in 2015 was the over 60s age group was lumped in together, when the over 70s were far more likely to vote Conservative.

    For commercial reasons- and lest not forget in NZ all political polls are lumped in with a standard monthly or fortnightly marketing polling about soap powders, or travel companies or brand of fruit juice. To those commercial sponsors its the ‘prime buying’ demographic they are most interested in- usually females from say 20- 40 yrs.
    They are barely interested in over 50s let alone the breakdown from 60+ and 70+

    This is a bit round about way of saying , by the time methods and accounting for those who dont vote ( a factor with Greens) and those undecided ( at this stage a large group may 15%+) the ‘working margin of error’ for something like the numbers for national is closer to 5% rather than 3.6%.

    levae the random sampling for the washing powder manufacturers and switch political polls to the panel method, as I understand they have better results for elections ( It was correct for Trump and UK where the real result is based on seats won or states won)

    • Margin of error is purely a statistical thing. Those are biases you’re talking about, not errors, and they’re not easily measurable the way you’re implying, wheras statistical errors follow mathematical formulae.

      I am in the school that thinks that polling purely on landlines is a bias, because it tends to skew respondents older and richer. It’s part of why Colmar Brunton and Reid Research tend to overpoll National to different degrees, IMO. There are difficulties to polling cellphones, but they’re worth working around because in 20 years or so landlines are going to be all but obsolete. Roy Morgan seems to overpoll Labour instead, so there’s likely some other bias going on there that needs to be sorted out, but I used the word “lean” in the post to avoid it getting into overly emotional terms.

      • dukeofurl 10.1.1

        Yes thats right. But in a ‘television sense’ the margin of error and biases should be lumped together say 3.6 +2.0.

        Hasnt one NZ polling company some elections back dropped publication of one of their polling results as it seemed to be so far out of whack with what other current polls were.
        Ive heard that has happened in the UK where the big polls can be weekly in the lead up to the election.

        “All the polls that are fit to print’

        • I think that media covering polls should mention which way they’ve tended to be biased in the last election, but it’s tricky because two of them are comissioned by media as it is, so they don’t want anyone else blasting their poll, so they treat everything as completely accurate, which as you say, is not entirely fair.

          I object to the idea of trying to enumerate their biases, because it’s really hard to know what was bias resulting from how a poll was conducted, and what was genuine statistical error. Did a poll miss a party’s result because they had a late surge with undecided voters that nobody could have predicted in time? Did they miss it because they don’t poll people by landline, or do internet panels? Or was it something else? It’s all guesswork, lol.

  11. Enough is Enough 11

    If read at face value the poll tell us what everyone knows. This is a tight race.

    The media story and twitter frenzy today is not about the poll result, rather Little’s bizarre reaction to the poll and his alarming comments.

    • dukeofurl 11.1

      Ah , yes . The daily media sausage.

      The only thing to remember is no matter what goes in it , it must be made

    • popexplosion 11.2

      RUbbish. Little is placing himself for the good of his party. Obviously the poll show voters have woken up to the fact that Epson voters get multiple of MPs by split voting. Since Labour now is trending to a constituent party, releasing the party vote for Greens, Nat’s or NZF. Personally Winston ‘my way or the highway’ Peters is too much like the dotage in the Whitehouse, and we all know Nat’s aren’t cutting it on managing the economy. Our evil liberal conservative media, as emphasised by Hootens recent livid rage that Little won’t get back to Parliament and vacant attack on bennies living an benefit for fifteen years, oh has he never heard of deaf, blind, etc individuals as if any one could get the benefit for that long with serious problems, is Hooten suggesting National has failed on its wrap around services again. Look seriously Mitiria is now a successful professional, like Bennett our deputy PM because of access to welfare and its just abusive to claim otherwise. Hooten likes Little being in parliament and hates all the welfare recipients who got there assisted by welfare.

      Clearly someone on the left wokeup to the damage of Labour and Green running don’t sell electricty, companies, those ads that suggested they were either too close together or tripping of each other. Now we have a choice, split vote, voteLab in the constituency and either nzf or green in the party. Do you want dictator peters or change greens? Nuf said. And hey thanks Hooten for pointing out Jacinda would be leader if Little wasn’t returned,as obviously that’s what voters wanted by split voting.

    • I wrote this post last night at Weka’s request, before Andrew Little opened his dumb mouth, lol, but I was really tired at the time so asked to edit it this morning first so I could see it with fresh eyes.

    • LivinInTheBay 11.4

      It’s a tight race if one assumes Winston will accept the Greens in coalition.

      Word is he hates them with a passion.

      • Oh well, as long as we have anonymous whispers of what he thinks, clearly that’s more important than actual numbers that dictate what position the parties will be in.

        I am as cynical as anyone when it comes to Winston. If I thought he definitely couldn’t work with the Greens, I would call it like it is and say that Labour and the Greens desperately needed to undermine him. But he doesn’t show any obvious sign of who he wants to favour, because he knows that way he can get disaffected voters from both.

        You also have to remember that nobody in the Greens really wants to work with him that much, either. But they’re willing to be professionals and play nice with the nationalists if they have to, because honestly a government with them is better than another term of National. And he doesn’t want to be made to look petty by the Greens being more open to co-operating than he is.

  12. McFlock 12

    I think Litte’s response reflects his primary focus on the Labour Party, rather than on the wider labgrn bloc.

    Which in turn simply reflects his role as leader of the Labour party.

    • Yep, I agree. That’s not what this post is about, of course. 🙂

      • McFlock 12.1.1

        heh, yeah it was more an incidental line in one of the paragraphs.

        You wrote a good article, I should have made a point of saying. It covers the main issues of polls as well as some of the MMP details that people fixated on one party seem to have a tendency to forget.

        And it flows well, so it’s easy to find sections that might be of interest later down the line.

  13. The Real Matthew 13

    Nice article but here’s the big problem for the left.

    On this poll Andrew Little is in genuine danger of not being returned to parliament. So who would be the prime minister for a left leaning government? It’s a problem because we’ve seen with both Helen Clarke and John Key that the electorate does vote to an extent on the qualities of the leader as opposed to voting solely on policy.

    Last time around we saw National effectively portray the left as a row boat rowing in all directions and going nowhere. This time round watch for National to portray the left as a rudderless, leaderless ship, playing on Little’s low Prime Ministerial approval rating along with the chance he doesn’t make it to parliament.

    • Poission 13.1

      well that may be the case,but NZ first will decide the gvt whatever the l/r divide.

      The payback will be that WP may also decide the cabinet,by vetoing smith,,brownlee ,collins and joyce lots of power sitting on the crossbench,

      • I wouldn’t accept it as a fait accompli that Winston will go with National. There are some arguements that suggest he could, but I think he’s genuinely going to consider his options, and there’s several reasons to think he might also want to work with Labour, assuming he is in fact in the kingmaker position after the election.

        1) Labour will be more compatible with his giant package of “bottom lines” than National will be.
        2) He is likely to get more concessions from a Labour-Green government due to his relative importance in the coalition.
        3) One lesson he may have learnt from 1996 is simply that National are not as good at genuinely being in coalition with another party of any significant size, and that he can’t trust them to keep their word if there’s a leadership spill. It’s no good having the baubles of office briefly if you can’t keep them.
        4) I have a feeling Labour and the Greens would be much more tolerant of a demand for the Deputy Prime Minister role.

        I don’t like being in this position, again, my go-to rhetorical framing is that the Left should be trying to win without Winston, while perhaps not openly declaring war on him. (although I do not believe that correctly describing his rhetoric as racist is “declaring war,” YMMV)

        • popexplosion

          Winston anti immigration stance hurts regional farming and older retired NZ who need migrants, and he shown little interest outside of Northland for infrastructure or investing in tourism or public multimodal transport. Peters is too conservative on all the issues for the left to work with,and he smells bad, Trump bad, a older man who dictates his way, Peters will drag with him a whole bunch of crazy yes sir NZF MPs. And then I’m not even sure he knows what he is talking about when interview, he is very capable of avoiding the question not much idea of answering them.

          • Matthew Whitehead

            I agree with all your points other than that him in a coalition is worse for the country than having another term of National as the government. I would rather have him in government to start with and try to grow Labour and the Greens’ votes so that they can kick him out in the second term than concede a fourth term to National, especially when they’re looking to privatize even more of our infrastructure, do nothing about child poverty and the housing crisis, and we’d have a catholic conservative PM who could start attacking liberal laws any time he wants.

            Making some concessions to slow down migration might not be a terrible thing, (even though I believe migrants are good for the country and it generally doesn’t hurt to have more) especially if they’re targetted so that they speed up migration to the regions but slow it down to Auckland in particular, as that would be a reasonable compromise that gives a new government the time it would need to start rebuilding the transport and housing infrastructure Auckland needs without putting so much additional stress on it.

    • Little needs a 22.5% result to stay in Parliament, assuming they don’t lose any current electorates and they manage to win in Ōhāriu. Colmar Brunton tends to under-poll Labour, meaning that the normal distribution of the margin of error needs to be shifted upwards, so it’s very unlikely that a result under 22.5% is actually indicated by this poll. There is a Reid Research poll coming out this evening, which is generally less biased towards National, but I’m going to wait for Roy Morgan before I come to any firm conclusions, because if even Roy Morgan has them near dangerous territory then their drop is probably real, but again, it’s only a problem for Labour, not for the Left in general.

  14. popexplosion 14

    NR Hooten can’t image that a deaf or blind person can’t heal themselves and get off a benefit after fifteen years!!!!

    • Yes well, expecting that shame on the name of Matthew, Mr. Hooton, to have empathy for someone is just as ridiculous as expecting a spontaneous remission from blindness or deafness.

      • popexplosion 14.1.1

        What’s Hooten going to when Peters is gone, every election he predicts Peters will be King maker! Trumps old dotage reign my way highway is so Peters. I really worry Hooten mental state will self destruct… …clearly he lost plot today when he went all livid that Little would not be around for Peters to deal with.

        • Even a broken clock is right twice a day? Seriously though, Peters is very likely to be Kingmaker unless either National or Labour gets their acts together, so Hooton is right when it comes to this election, and polling was, for a while, showing the same thing in the previous one, it just stabilised with a left-wing government being possible but very unlikely and we got the National and Hangers-On government instead.

          • popexplosion

            Bollocks. Excuse my… …let’s just imagine that a universe exists where Peters has said something so repugnant that nobody can work with him, are you suggesting that politics will stop? No. The universe will go on without the manufacture of consent meme you have just tried to pass on, my political immunity to this bug is hard won required a switch out from my emotional pleaders peddling fear of chaos. To a rational mind that sees a political history of dictating to his fellow MPs,tracking any rightward wind, obviously past his best and relying on the age vote, and for one last hoorah will holdup a last term National govt as he gets more that way. A new administration isn’t predictable and malleable, fearing he’ll walk and force them into another election.

  15. Cemetery Jones 15

    Good summary there, thanks!

  16. Bill 16

    If the undecideds and unreachables are made up of a fair proportion of people who are suddenly pricking up their ears at the Green Party’s shift away from ‘politics as usual’ (and I think that’s a reasonable thing to suggest), then none of the polls are going to pick that up.

    Poorer people, many with with no land-lines or whatever, who ‘get’ what Metiria was on about may well have voted Labour or NZF in the past and now be rethinking, while poorer disengaged voters may be looking at wandering along to the democratic circus again now that the promise of a worthwhile act is on the cards.

    I’m going to be curious about any signs of a shift away from NZF . Shifts from NZ Labour to Green are much less important from the perspective of a given bloc.

    And then there will be the impact of those ‘unreachables’ that the polls will be missing and who, bar anecdotal evidence, we won’t know about until election day.

    edit – I thought this election was going to be a torturous yawn fest until Metiria.

    • Yeah, I’m really inspired by Metiria’s rhetorical shift. She’s genuinely listened to the members and changed tack this election and it’s worked wonders. I’m really proud to have someone with her personal courage as our co-leader.

      You’re a little wrong to suggest that polls won’t pick up the “missing million” returning. They will, of course, fail to pick up any trends among people who won’t ever respond to or be reached by polling, but with one polling org using the internet and another using cellphones, the main problem is people who would simply refuse to be polled, and you can’t really do anything about that. If undecideds are suddenly breaking for the Greens, you would expect a boost like you saw in the CB. Newshub’s poll, conducted at the same time, suggests a more modest increase for the Greens, which likely means that they’re not getting the full four point boost, but they’re still doing a lot better than they were before.

  17. Norfolk Traveller 17

    “Colmar Brunton tends to do the following:

    Over-poll National.
    Under-poll Labour.
    Slightly under-poll the Greens.
    Very slightly under-poll New Zealand First.”

    Good try, but no.
    CM poll taken 13 – 17 September 2014:
    National 45%, Labour 25%, Greens 12, NZF 8%.
    Election Result 20 September 2014:
    National 47%, Labour 25%, Greens 12, NZF 6.6%.

    In summary, the CM underestimated National, and got the others fairly close.

    [lprent: Hey stupid dumbarse. Please don’t compare apples with lemons. Comparing the accuracy of a poll taken 7 weeks out from an election in 2017 to a poll taken days before an election in 2014 and claiming accuracy is outright stupid.

    Make too many of these spurious spinner style diversions and I’ll kick you off the site. There is a limit to how much ‘ignorance’ I can be bothered letting on the site to foul up the comment stream. Too much and I just start treating stupidity as trolling. Smarten up.

    This is your warning. ]

    • One Anonymous Bloke 17.1

      Depends what you understand the meaning of the word “tends” to be.

      The initials are “CB” by the way. Sometimes “ONCB”.

      • Norfolk Traveller 17.1.1

        The previous CB poll (6–10 September 2014) had National 46, Labour 25, Greens 14, NZF 7. Again, National understated.

        • One Anonymous Bloke

          What do all the other polls they’ve ever released say?

          • McFlock

            Well, their poll about as far away from the 2014 election as we are now put national on 52. I guess they don’t campaign well 🙂

          • DoublePlusGood

            I think we can have confidence at this point that the two polls immediately before the election will be quite accurate, and all the rest will be wildly making shit up to suit a narrative.

          • Norfolk Traveller

            You’d have to look. I would have thought the two immediately prior to an election would be a good guide to how accurate the polling is, given the election is what they are being measured against.

            [lprent: You are obviously wrong. Perhaps you should pull your head out of the your arse (or a sewer) for long enough to engage your upper brain rather than wanking on about your “common sense” approach. See my note further up.

            You are starting to waste my time. ]

            • Norfolk Traveller

              “You are obviously wrong.”
              About what?

              “…given the election is what they are being measured against.”
              EXACTLY. And my comparisons were of the two CB polls immediately before the last election. It is the election that determines accuracy, which is why I used that comparison. Stop being a tosser and let people have their say.

              [lprent: I do. You just have to actually know what you are talking about when you assert ‘facts’. To me you look like the type of stupid troll would have problems even being able to lift a club because you were too lazy to figure out where the handle is. Instead you’d just blowhard about how much bigger your dick is than the club. Certainly too lazy to go and look up a relevant comparison that actually contributes to the debate. You read just like other ignorant factless blowhards – Trump comes to mind. Stop whining and do some work to support your arguments like everyone else does here. ]

    • Bearded Git 17.2

      You are forgetting the disastrous “moment of truth” which occurred in the last week before the election in 2014 and is generally accepted to have cost the Left at least 1-2%.

      The polls would not have picked this up.

    • Norfolk Traveller 17.3

      The post included the following comment:
      “Colmar Brunton tends to do the following: Over-poll National”.
      That comment makes my response entirely reasonable.

      I’d suggest you pull your head out your own arse and read the comments before jumping in.

      [lprent: The post was talking about the accuracy poll that was released about 7 weeks before an election. So you counter with an argument that says polls released 1 & 2 weeks before an election were more accurate than that when measured against the election result. It is a statistically invalid comparison. It even violates any kind of common sense. It is the type of spurious false fact that I don’t tolerate around here because it causes stupid flamewars that the moderators have to clean up. ]

    • Hey Norfolk- sure, you’re right if you look just at the one poll before the election. I looked at how they polled National compared to the average in general in the lead up to 2014 as well, (and they were consistently above the trendline) and how they compare to the trend in 2016 and 2017. Colmar Brunton almost always gives the highest result to National of any of the polling companies, and a lot of the talk of an outright National government without any coalition was based on CB polling.

      So it really depends on what you look at. I think it’s much fairer to look at the overall performance relative to the trend than just the poll before the election, although I did put some weighting to its performance in that last poll too, which stopped me from saying that they drastically over-poll for National on average.

      In short, LPrent’s warning is accurate, lol, but I can see why you would want to call me on that statement, as the bit about considering their performance relative to the election makes it seem like they were off in their pre-election poll, rather than that I was saying they were less off because of it.

  18. ianmac 18

    Bugger! “A UMR Research poll provided to Labour, the pollster’s corporate clients and some other parties last week, and leaked to Stuff on Monday, showed Labour on 23 per cent – down six points from a similar poll in June.”

    And Green on 15%.

    • McFlock 18.1

      wasn’t that the poll that got leaked by umr’s corporate clients last time, too?

      • dukeofurl 18.1.1

        Seems they poll every fortnight. A big companies want to know whos winning in the polls too.

        • McFlock

          Yeah the nice thing about last time was the leaker leaked it before Labour even got a peek at it – proving that Labour’s at least more disciplined now than in the past.

          I suspect that UMR have a new client between now and the last election who’s shitting on their brand. Corporates might want to see political polling, but they might not want to see their commissioned market research leaked, either.

    • weka 18.2

      There’s a whole post up about why looking at single polls isn’t that helpful 😉

      • RedLogix 18.2.1

        Little is rejecting criticism he looks to have all but given up, despite admitting he contemplated falling on his sword in the wake of Sunday’s disastrous poll result.

        But he has admitted that, with the party polling so low it was not credible for him to form a Government and become prime minister, even though technically it could be done.

        Maybe some should tell Andrew Little how single polls aren’t all that helpful.

        His logic in his second para is even more unsettling. If as he reasons that Labour cannot credibly form a govt and prime minister while they’re still on 23% … then how the hell could any other party polling even lower?

        • weka

          Listen to the interview with Dann. What Stuff are saying isn’t how I heard Little. It’s the same old shit, journos interpreting instead of reporting. If they don’t get what Little is on about then they’re going to parse it through their own world view.

      • ianmac 18.2.2

        But as Matthew says watch the trends. He says 3 or 4 polls make a trend. This makes 2.

        • Actually with the Reid Research poll out ( it makes 3, so I’d feel reasonably confident in saying that both Labour and National are drooping a bit, and New Zealand First and the Greens are growing. (I’ll probably wait on the RM before opining on how much, as if it’s worse for the Greens than the CB was, then that means that CB just got a rogue result and things aren’t good for the left, wheras if it’s better than the CB, that likely means Reid Research under-polled them this time, and the coalition is growing at the expense of Labour’s share of the vote) I’d say we can be fairly certain of that conclusion at least while we wait on the next poll or even the next set of polls- Labour needs to switch things up if they want to pull their weight and try to get in without needing New Zealand First, and they need to pull up before they start polling at a position where Little can’t get elected, because then that will be all the media will want to talk about, which will make it even harder for them to do better.

    • Bearded Git 18.3

      mmm interesting 42-23-16-15.

      Labour forms a government with NZF with Greens supporting on supply. Little doesn’t get a seat on the list (which is a shame) so Jacinda is PM, Winnie deputy. With a Labour overhang and 54% (23/16/15) this gives a very stable government (plus Hone).

      Boy do I like that 42.

      • indiana 18.3.1

        …really? Jacinda is PM?

      • At 23%, Labour could win an extra electorate compared to 2014 with someone who’s not already high on the list, and still get Andrew Little in. They might lose David Parker, depending on how things go, which is still bad, but it’s not total disaster.

        There is no overhang for Labour until they’re polling at a 27-seat list entitlement, assuming they don’t start winning way more electorates than in 2014, where they were already electorate-heavy compared to their Party Vote. Reid Research’s figures would lead to a likely 30-seat Labour Party, and Colmar Brunton’s to a 29 seat one. CB would see David Parker out, and Reid Research would see him in. A 1% drop from CB is what you’d need to see Little out of Parliment, but the trend doesn’t yet suggest that, so Labour doesn’t need to panic just yet, but they do obviously need to change strategies now, whatever your opinion on how to grow the Left is.

        If Labour forms a minority or coalition government on lower than 22.5%, (ie. without Little) I wouldn’t be expected Jacinda to become PM. She would likely stay on as Deputy, probably with Grant Robertson being both PM and Finance Minister, but it’s not worth too much thought on that scenario unless Labour continues to flounder and the Greens and NZF continue to rise.

  19. expat 19

    “This poll, confusingly given both the coverage and Little’s reaction this morning, is good news”

    I’m not sure I agree but there you go.

    • The CB was a positive indicator. Unfortunately, it was accompanied by this evening’s Reid Research poll, which was a negative indicator overall, with the Greens having only a modest bump and Labour still languishing at 24%, a little higher than the CB predicted but not comfortably so. Given the mixed messages, I’m waiting for the next poll to come to a conclusion. We should have the next RM in a couple of weeks if they have a similar time frame to last month.

  20. Phil 20

    Overall, the trendline for polling since John Key has resigned has Labour and the Greens heading upwards when taken together, and National heading downwards.

    Yes, but… there’s a big difference between identifying a trend from historical polling observations and projecting trendlines to future polling.

    Or, to put it another way: The probability that poll-result-3 will be higher than poll-result-2 is pretty much always 50% (and, equally, the probability it’s lower will also be roughly 50%) regardless of whether or not poll-result-2 was higher than poll-result-1.

    • Sure, there’s uncertainty that trends will continue. But National shows no sign of arresting their own voter decline, so I’m not worried until they do.

  21. Andrew Little is alright.

    IMHO its the Labour Party and its supporters who are responsible for the low polling.

    The Greens and Nats have taken all of their oxygen and left them in a vacuum. Where they’re all madly squabbling.

    Labour was never unified behind Little as they should have been, and the voters can see/ sense this.

    It is Labour’s factions that have ruined it for them this election. Mainly the Progressives/ identity politics crowd.

    • halfcrown 21.1

      That is spot on, one of the best analysis I have seen comrade.

    • Labour has been pretty keen on circling the wagons around Little. I agree that caucus has continued to air its stupid dirty laundry in the media too often, and it makes him look bad, but that’s not actually the same thing as not supporting the leader. Your analysis would be well-suited to the 2014 election if you replaced the progressive part with the ABC crowd.

      Labour’s caucus and other senior leaders haven’t listened to its progressive faction at all, so I’m not sure how you can seriously say they caused their poor polling given their overtly centrist campaign strategy. The only remotely progressive thing Labour has done is agree to the MoU with the Greens, so this looks like more Redbaiter trolling as usual. Maybe you and your sock puppet should shove off, lol.

      • weka 21.2.1

        Unfortunately Nash was on the radio today throwing the MoU under a bus.

        • I expect that sort of rubbish from Nash. Hearing Little claiming that the Greens campaigning hard is “not growing the centre-left vote” (hint: the Greens don’t care about that “centre-” part) is what really irritates me, but I don’t expect anyone in Labour to throw aside the MoU as it’s the only thing giving them credibility right now, the real question will be what happens if they don’t form a government- do they decide not to do another MoU next time? Right now it seems like they might throw that away, which seems like a bit of a mistake on their part.

          • weka

            The thing that bothers me about Nash is that Little, as leader, is going through a tough couple of days and doesn’t need one of his MPs going off script. For Nash to come out with that stuff just makes Labour look like they were 3 years ago. MPs doing whatever they want, haphazard cohesion in caucus, no unified message.

            • Matthew Whitehead

              The dumb thing is, I’m not even sure he is going off-script. For all we know, Little wants to say the same stuff but is having Nash test it out first.

              • weka

                yes, it could really be that bad. In which case we’re probably well and truly fucked.

                The interviewer said they tried to speak to Ardern but Ardern said she would only give them soundbites not and interview so they went to Nash instead. I just don’t trust anything coming from the MSM at the moment, and that’s a bad sign.

              • McFlock

                yeah, testing is plausible.

                I suspect, from Labour’s perspective, they’re wanting to stem the flow, and the stability of the wider left vote is nice but doesn’t help Labour.

                Although the greens had a major win with all the kerfuffle about Turei, and the nats fucked up their response badly, Labour lost visibility. Not so much that the leaked votes to the greens any more than NZ1, but they just went down in profile. Now the media and tories (and tory media) are sniffing Labour blood when they thought it was the greens who would be bleeding, but the tories have leapt on the leadership line.

                But leave it a week and a couple of decent policy announcements, and it’ll blow over and Labour will recover a few points – I think this is probably the low point for them. Unless they panic.

                So let’s look at them throwing the MOU under the bus: Labour burn their coalition partner, throw any possible replacement to the nats away. That would be overkill.

                But have nash and jackson squeak a bit, try and get some separation from the greens without making the deal look ruptured (leaders come back in saying “quiet, silly boys, we love our green brethren and sistren”)… maybe Labour get a bit more visibility and can get back into the policy stride.

                In the meantime – the nats have no friends.

  22. expat 22

    its a bit more than a tough couple days and Nash has broad appeal.

    • weka 22.1

      Undermining your leader and party to get more votes is a very shortsighted approach, and Labour already tried this last time and it didn’t work.

      If I were to be really cynical I’d say Nash is hedging his bets. Either Labour get to form govt, or they don’t and he puts his hand up to be leader.

      • Anne 22.1.1

        If I were to be really cynical I’d say Nash is hedging his bets.

        Yes. But he’ll never be leader. Remember the membership and affiliates now play a significant role in leadership votes. The majority of them would not wear Nash. He’s too much of a stray bullet and has shown poor judgement in the past.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Webworm Presents: Jurassic Park on 35mm
    Hi,Paying Webworm members such as yourself keep this thing running, so as 2023 draws to close, I wanted to do two things to say a giant, loud “THANKS”. Firstly — I’m giving away 10 Mister Organ blu-rays in New Zealand, and another 10 in America. More details down below.Secondly — ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 hour ago
  • The Prime Minister's Dream.
    Yesterday saw the State Opening of Parliament, the Speech from the Throne, and then Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s dream for Aotearoa in his first address. But first the pomp and ceremony, the arrival of the Governor General.Dame Cindy Kiro arrived on the forecourt outside of parliament to a Māori welcome. ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 hours ago
  • National’s new MP; the proud part-Maori boy raised in a state house
    Probably not since 1975 have we seen a government take office up against such a wall of protest and complaint. That was highlighted yesterday, the day that the new Parliament was sworn in, with news that King Tuheitia has called a national hui for late January to develop a ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 hours ago
  • Climate Adam: Battlefield Earth – How War Fuels Climate Catastrophe
    This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). War, conflict and climate change are tearing apart lives across the world. But these aren't separate harms - they're intricately connected. ...
    12 hours ago
  • They do not speak for us, and they do not speak for the future
    These dire woeful and intolerant people have been so determinedly going about their small and petulant business, it’s hard to keep up. At the end of the new government’s first woeful week, Audrey Young took the time to count off its various acts of denigration of Te Ao Māori:Review the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    15 hours ago
  • Another attack on te reo
    The new white supremacist government made attacking te reo a key part of its platform, promising to rename government agencies and force them to "communicate primarily in English" (which they already do). But today they've gone further, by trying to cut the pay of public servants who speak te reo: ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    16 hours ago
  • For the record, the Beehive buzz can now be regarded as “official”
    Buzz from the Beehive The biggest buzz we bring you from the Beehive today is that the government’s official website is up and going after being out of action for more than a week. The latest press statement came  from  Education Minister  Eric Stanford, who seized on the 2022 PISA ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    17 hours ago
  • Climate Change: Failed again
    There was another ETS auction this morning. and like all the other ones this year, it failed to clear - meaning that 23 million tons of carbon (15 million ordinary units plus 8 million in the cost containment reserve) went up in smoke. Or rather, they didn't. Being unsold at ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    17 hours ago
  • Gordon Campbell On The Government’s Assault On Maori
    This isn’t news, but the National-led coalition is mounting a sustained assault on Treaty rights and obligations. Even so, Christopher Luxon has described yesterday’s nationwide protests by Maori as “pretty unfair.” Poor thing. In the NZ Herald, Audrey Young has compiled a useful list of the many, many ways that ...
    19 hours ago
  • Rising costs hit farmers hard, but  there’s more  positive news  for  them this  week 
    New Zealand’s dairy industry, the mainstay of the country’s export trade, has  been under  pressure  from rising  costs. Down on the  farm, this  has  been  hitting  hard. But there  was more positive news this week,  first   from the latest Fonterra GDT auction where  prices  rose,  and  then from  a  report ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    19 hours ago
  • ROB MacCULLOCH:  Newshub and NZ Herald report misleading garbage about ACT’s van Veldon not follo...
    Rob MacCulloch writes –  In their rush to discredit the new government (which our MainStream Media regard as illegitimate and having no right to enact the democratic will of voters) the NZ Herald and Newshub are arguing ACT’s Deputy Leader Brooke van Veldon is not following Treasury advice ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    20 hours ago
  • Top 10 for Wednesday, December 6
    Even many young people who smoke support smokefree policies, fitting in with previous research showing the large majority of people who smoke regret starting and most want to quit. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere on the morning of Wednesday, December ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    22 hours ago
  • Eleven years of work.
    Well it didn’t take six months, but the leaks have begun. Yes the good ship Coalition has inadvertently released a confidential cabinet paper into the public domain, discussing their axing of Fair Pay Agreements (FPAs).Oops.Just when you were admiring how smoothly things were going for the new government, they’ve had ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 day ago
  • Why we're missing out on sharply lower inflation
    A wave of new and higher fees, rates and charges will ripple out over the economy in the next 18 months as mayors, councillors, heads of department and price-setters for utilities such as gas, electricity, water and parking ramp up charges. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Just when most ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago
  • How Did We Get Here?
    Hi,Kiwis — keep the evening of December 22nd free. I have a meetup planned, and will send out an invite over the next day or so. This sounds sort of crazy to write, but today will be Tony Stamp’s final Totally Normal column of 2023. Somehow we’ve made it to ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 day ago
  • At a glance – Has the greenhouse effect been falsified?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    1 day ago
  • New Zealaders  have  high expectations of  new  government:  now let’s see if it can deliver?
    The electorate has high expectations of the  new  government.  The question is: can  it  deliver?    Some  might  say  the  signs are not  promising. Protestors   are  already marching in the streets. The  new  Prime Minister has had  little experience of managing  very diverse politicians  in coalition. The economy he  ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    2 days ago
  • You won't believe some of the numbers you have to pull when you're a Finance Minister
    Nicola of Marsden:Yo, normies! We will fix your cost of living worries by giving you a tax cut of 150 dollars. 150! Cash money! Vote National.Various people who can read and count:Actually that's 150 over a fortnight. Not a week, which is how you usually express these things.And actually, it looks ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • Pushback
    When this government came to power, it did so on an explicitly white supremacist platform. Undermining the Waitangi Tribunal, removing Māori representation in local government, over-riding the courts which had tried to make their foreshore and seabed legislation work, eradicating te reo from public life, and ultimately trying to repudiate ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Defence ministerial meeting meant Collins missed the Maori Party’s mischief-making capers in Parli...
    Buzz from the Beehive Maybe this is not the best time for our Minister of Defence to have gone overseas. Not when the Maori Party is inviting (or should that be inciting?) its followers to join a revolution in a post which promoted its protest plans with a picture of ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago
  • Threats of war have been followed by an invitation to join the revolution – now let’s see how th...
     A Maori Party post on Instagram invited party followers to ….  Tangata Whenua, Tangata Tiriti, Join the REVOLUTION! & make a stand!  Nationwide Action Day, All details in tiles swipe to see locations.  • This is our 1st hit out and tomorrow Tuesday the 5th is the opening ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • Top 10 for Tuesday, December 4
    The RBNZ governor is citing high net migration and profit-led inflation as factors in the bank’s hawkish stance. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere on the morning of Tuesday, December 5, including:Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says high net migration and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Nicola Willis' 'show me the money' moment
    Willis has accused labour of “economic vandalism’, while Robertson described her comments as a “desperate diversion from somebody who can't make their tax package add up”. There will now be an intense focus on December 20 to see whether her hyperbole is backed up by true surprises. Photo montage: Lynn ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • CRL costs money but also provides huge benefits
    The City Rail Link has been in the headlines a bit recently so I thought I’d look at some of them. First up, yesterday the NZ Herald ran this piece about the ongoing costs of the CRL. Auckland ratepayers will be saddled with an estimated bill of $220 million each ...
    2 days ago
  • And I don't want the world to see us.
    Is this the most shambolic government in the history of New Zealand? Given that parliament hasn’t even opened they’ve managed quite a list of achievements to date.The Smokefree debacle trading lives for tax cuts, the Trumpian claims of bribery in the Media, an International award for indifference, and today the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Cooking the books
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis late yesterday stopped only slightly short of accusing her predecessor Grant Robertson of cooking the books. She complained that the Half Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU), due to be made public on December 20, would show “fiscal cliffs” that would amount to “billions of ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago
  • Most people don’t realize how much progress we’ve made on climate change
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The year was 2015. ‘Uptown Funk’ with Bruno Mars was at the top of the music charts. Jurassic World was the most popular new movie in theaters. And decades of futility in international climate negotiations was about to come to an end in ...
    2 days ago
  • Of Parliamentary Oaths and Clive Boonham
    As a heads-up, I am not one of those people who stay awake at night thinking about weird Culture War nonsense. At least so far as the current Maori/Constitutional arrangements go. In fact, I actually consider it the least important issue facing the day to day lives of New ...
    3 days ago
  • Bearing True Allegiance?
    Strong Words: “We do not consent, we do not surrender, we do not cede, we do not submit; we, the indigenous, are rising. We do not buy into the colonial fictions this House is built upon. Te Pāti Māori pledges allegiance to our mokopuna, our whenua, and Te Tiriti o ...
    3 days ago
  • You cannot be serious
    Some days it feels like the only thing to say is: Seriously? No, really. Seriously?OneSomeone has used their health department access to share data about vaccinations and patients, and inform the world that New Zealanders have been dying in their hundreds of thousands from the evil vaccine. This of course is pure ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • A promise kept: govt pulls the plug on Lake Onslow scheme – but this saving of $16bn is denounced...
    Buzz from the Beehive After $21.8 million was spent on investigations, the plug has been pulled on the Lake Onslow pumped-hydro electricity scheme, The scheme –  that technically could have solved New Zealand’s looming energy shortage, according to its champions – was a key part of the defeated Labour government’s ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • CHRIS TROTTER: The Maori Party and Oath of Allegiance
    If those elected to the Māori Seats refuse to take them, then what possible reason could the country have for retaining them?   Chris Trotter writes – Christmas is fast approaching, which, as it does every year, means gearing up for an abstruse general knowledge question. “Who was ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • BRIAN EASTON:  Forward to 2017
    The coalition party agreements are mainly about returning to 2017 when National lost power. They show commonalities but also some serious divergencies. Brian Easton writes The two coalition agreements – one National and ACT, the other National and New Zealand First – are more than policy documents. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change: Fossils
    When the new government promised to allow new offshore oil and gas exploration, they were warned that there would be international criticism and reputational damage. Naturally, they arrogantly denied any possibility that that would happen. And then they finally turned up at COP, to criticism from Palau, and a "fossil ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • GEOFFREY MILLER:  NZ’s foreign policy resets on AUKUS, Gaza and Ukraine
    Geoffrey Miller writes – New Zealand’s international relations are under new management. And Winston Peters, the new foreign minister, is already setting a change agenda. As expected, this includes a more pro-US positioning when it comes to the Pacific – where Peters will be picking up where he ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the government’s smokefree laws debacle
    The most charitable explanation for National’s behaviour over the smokefree legislation is that they have dutifully fulfilled the wishes of the Big Tobacco lobby and then cast around – incompetently, as it turns out – for excuses that might sell this health policy U-turn to the public. The less charitable ...
    3 days ago
  • Top 10 links at 10 am for Monday, December 4
    As Deb Te Kawa writes in an op-ed, the new Government seems to have immediately bought itself fights with just about everyone. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere as of 10 am on Monday December 4, including:Palau’s President ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Be Honest.
    Let’s begin today by thinking about job interviews.During my career in Software Development I must have interviewed hundreds of people, hired at least a hundred, but few stick in the memory.I remember one guy who was so laid back he was practically horizontal, leaning back in his chair until his ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: New Zealand’s foreign policy resets on AUKUS, Gaza and Ukraine
    New Zealand’s international relations are under new management. And Winston Peters, the new foreign minister, is already setting a change agenda. As expected, this includes a more pro-US positioning when it comes to the Pacific – where Peters will be picking up where he left off. Peters sought to align ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    3 days ago
  • Auckland rail tunnel the world’s most expensive
    Auckland’s city rail link is the most expensive rail project in the world per km, and the CRL boss has described the cost of infrastructure construction in Aotearoa as a crisis. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The 3.5 km City Rail Link (CRL) tunnel under Auckland’s CBD has cost ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • First big test coming
    The first big test of the new Government’s approach to Treaty matters is likely to be seen in the return of the Resource Management Act. RMA Minister Chris Bishop has confirmed that he intends to introduce legislation to repeal Labour’s recently passed Natural and Built Environments Act and its ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • The Song of Saqua: Volume III
    Time to revisit something I haven’t covered in a while: the D&D campaign, with Saqua the aquatic half-vampire. Last seen in July: The delay is understandable, once one realises that the interim saw our DM come down with a life-threatening medical situation. They have since survived to make ...
    3 days ago
  • Chris Bishop: Smokin’
    Yes. Correct. It was an election result. And now we are the elected government. ...
    My ThinksBy boonman
    4 days ago
  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #48
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Nov 26, 2023 thru Dec 2, 2023. Story of the Week CO2 readings from Mauna Loa show failure to combat climate change Daily atmospheric carbon dioxide data from Hawaiian volcano more ...
    4 days ago
  • Affirmative Action.
    Affirmative Action was a key theme at this election, although I don’t recall anyone using those particular words during the campaign.They’re positive words, and the way the topic was talked about was anything but. It certainly wasn’t a campaign of saying that Affirmative Action was a good thing, but that, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • 100 days of something
    It was at the end of the Foxton straights, at the end of 1978, at 100km/h, that someone tried to grab me from behind on my Yamaha.They seemed to be yanking my backpack. My first thought was outrage. My second was: but how? Where have they come from? And my ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Look who’s stepped up to champion Winston
    There’s no news to be gleaned from the government’s official website today  – it contains nothing more than the message about the site being under maintenance. The time this maintenance job is taking and the costs being incurred have us musing on the government’s commitment to an assault on inflation. ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • What's The Story?
    Don’t you sometimes wish they’d just tell the truth? No matter how abhorrent or ugly, just straight up tell us the truth?C’mon guys, what you’re doing is bad enough anyway, pretending you’re not is only adding insult to injury.Instead of all this bollocks about the Smokefree changes being to do ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • The longest of weeks
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Friday Under New Management Week in review, quiz style1. Which of these best describes Aotearoa?a. Progressive nation, proud of its egalitarian spirit and belief in a fair go b. Best little country on the planet c. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • Suggested sessions of EGU24 to submit abstracts to
    Like earlier this year, members from our team will be involved with next year's General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU). The conference will take place on premise in Vienna as well as online from April 14 to 19, 2024. The session catalog has been available since November 1 ...
    5 days ago
  • Under New Management
    1. Which of these best describes Aotearoa?a. Progressive nation, proud of its egalitarian spirit and belief in a fair go b. Best little country on the planet c. Under New Management 2. Which of these best describes the 100 days of action announced this week by the new government?a. Petulantb. Simplistic and wrongheaded c. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • While we wait patiently, our new Minister of Education is up and going with a 100-day action plan
    Sorry to say, the government’s official website is still out of action. When Point of Order paid its daily visit, the message was the same as it has been for the past week: Site under maintenance is currently under maintenance. We will be back shortly. Thank you for your ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • DAVID FARRAR: Hysterical bullshit
    Radio NZ reports: Te Pāti Māori’s co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer has accused the new government of “deliberate .. systemic genocide” over its policies to roll back the smokefree policy and the Māori Health Authority. The left love hysterical language. If you oppose racial quotas in laws, you are a racist. And now if you sack ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48 2023
    Open access notables From this week's government/NGO section, longitudinal data is gold and Leisorowitz, Maibachi et al. continue to mine ore from the US public with Climate Change in the American Mind: Politics & Policy, Fall 2023: Drawing on a representative sample of the U.S. adult population, the authors describe how registered ...
    6 days ago
  • ELE LUDEMANN: It wasn’t just $55 million
    Ele Ludemann writes –  Winston Peters reckons media outlets were bribed by the $55 million Public Interest Journalism Fund. He is not the first to make such an accusation. Last year, the Platform outlined conditions media signed up to in return for funds from the PJIF: . . . ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 1-December-2023
    Wow, it’s December already, and it’s a Friday. So here are few things that caught our attention recently. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt covered the new government’s coalition agreements and what they mean for transport. On Tuesday Matt looked at AT’s plans for fare increases ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    6 days ago
  • Shane MacGowan Is Gone.
    Late 1996, The Dogs Bollix, Tamaki Makaurau.I’m at the front of the bar yelling my order to the bartender, jostling with other thirsty punters on a Friday night, keen to piss their wages up against a wall letting loose. The black stuff, long luscious pints of creamy goodness. Back down ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to Dec 1
    Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop and other National, ACT and NZ First MPs applaud the signing of the coalition agreements, which included the reversal of anti-smoking measures while accelerating tax cuts for landlords. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • 2023 More Reading: November (+ Writing Update)
    Completed reads for November: A Modern Utopia, by H.G. Wells The Vampire (poem), by Heinrich August Ossenfelder The Corpus Hermeticum The Corpus Hermeticum is Mead’s translation. Now, this is indeed a very quiet month for reading. But there is a reason for that… You see, ...
    6 days ago
  • Forward to 2017
    The coalition party agreements are mainly about returning to 2017 when National lost power. They show commonalities but also some serious divergencies.The two coalition agreements – one National and ACT, the other National and New Zealand First – are more than policy documents. They also describe the processes of the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    7 days ago
  • Questions a nine year old might ask the new Prime Minister
    First QuestionYou’re going to crack down on people ram-raiding dairies, because you say hard-working dairy owners shouldn’t have to worry about getting ram-raided.But once the chemist shops have pseudoephedrine in them again, they're going to get ram-raided all the time. Do chemists not work as hard as dairy owners?Second QuestionYou ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • Questions a nine year old might ask the new Prime Minister
    First QuestionYou’re going to crack down on people ram-raiding dairies, because you say hard-working dairy owners shouldn’t have to worry about getting ram-raided.But once the chemist shops have pseudoephedrine in them again, they're going to get ram-raided all the time. Do chemists not work as hard as dairy owners?Second QuestionYou ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • Finally
    Henry Kissinger is finally dead. Good fucking riddance. While Americans loved him, he was a war criminal, responsible for most of the atrocities of the final quarter of the twentieth century. Cambodia. Bangladesh. Chile. East Timor. All Kissinger. Because of these crimes, Americans revere him as a "statesman" (which says ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Government in a hurry – Luxon lists 49 priorities in 100-day plan while Peters pledges to strength...
    Buzz from the Beehive Yes, ministers in the new government are delivering speeches and releasing press statements. But the message on the government’s official website was the same as it has been for the past several days, when Point of Order went looking for news from the Beehive that had ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    7 days ago
  • DAVID FARRAR: Luxon is absolutely right
    David Farrar writes  –  1 News reports: Christopher Luxon says he was told by some Kiwis on the campaign trail they “didn’t know” the difference between Waka Kotahi, Te Pūkenga and Te Whatu Ora. Speaking to Breakfast, the incoming prime minister said having English first on government agencies will “make sure” ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago
  • Top 10 at 10 am for Thursday, Nov 30
    There are fears that mooted changes to building consent liability could end up driving the building industry into an uninsured hole. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere as of 10 am on Thursday, November 30, including:The new Government’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on how climate change threatens cricket‘s future
    Well that didn’t last long, did it? Mere days after taking on what he called the “awesome responsibility” of being Prime Minister, M Christopher Luxon has started blaming everyone else, and complaining that he has inherited “economic vandalism on an unprecedented scale” – which is how most of us are ...
    7 days ago
  • We need to talk about Tory.
    The first I knew of the news about Tory Whanau was when a tweet came up in my feed.The sort of tweet that makes you question humanity, or at least why you bother with Twitter. Which is increasingly a cesspit of vile inhabitants who lurk spreading negativity, hate, and every ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago
  • Dangling Transport Solutions
    Cable Cars, Gondolas, Ropeways and Aerial Trams are all names for essentially the same technology and the world’s biggest maker of them are here to sell them as an public transport solution. Stuff reports: Austrian cable car company Doppelmayr has launched its case for adding aerial cable cars to New ...
    7 days ago
  • November AMA
    Hi,It’s been awhile since I’ve done an Ask-Me-Anything on here, so today’s the day. Ask anything you like in the comments section, and I’ll be checking in today and tomorrow to answer.Leave a commentNext week I’ll be giving away a bunch of these Mister Organ blu-rays for readers in New ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • National’s early moves adding to cost of living pressure
    The cost of living grind continues, and the economic and inflation honeymoon is over before it began. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: PM Christopher Luxon unveiled his 100 day plan yesterday with an avowed focus of reducing cost-of-living pressures, but his Government’s initial moves and promises are actually elevating ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Backwards to the future
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has confirmed that it will be back to the future on planning legislation. This will be just one of a number of moves which will see the new government go backwards as it repeals and cost-cuts its way into power. They will completely repeal one ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago
  • New initiatives in science and technology could point the way ahead for Luxon government
    As the new government settles into the Beehive, expectations are high that it can sort out some  of  the  economic issues  confronting  New Zealand. It may take time for some new  ministers to get to grips with the range of their portfolio work and responsibilities before they can launch the  changes that  ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    1 week ago
  • Treaty pledge to secure funding is contentious – but is Peters being pursued by a lynch mob after ...
    TV3 political editor Jenna Lynch was among the corps of political reporters who bridled, when Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters told them what he thinks of them (which is not much). She was unabashed about letting her audience know she had bridled. More usefully, she drew attention to something which ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago
  • How long does this last?
    I have a clear memory of every election since 1969 in this plucky little nation of ours. I swear I cannot recall a single one where the question being asked repeatedly in the first week of the new government was: how long do you reckon they’ll last? And that includes all ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • Minister sets expectations of Commissioner
    Today I met with Police Commissioner Andrew Coster to set out my expectations, which he has agreed to, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. Under section 16(1) of the Policing Act 2008, the Minister can expect the Police Commissioner to deliver on the Government’s direction and priorities, as now outlined in ...
    13 hours ago
  • New Zealand needs a strong and stable ETS
    New Zealand needs a strong and stable Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) that is well placed for the future, after emission units failed to sell for the fourth and final auction of the year, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says.  At today’s auction, 15 million New Zealand units (NZUs) – each ...
    15 hours ago
  • PISA results show urgent need to teach the basics
    With 2022 PISA results showing a decline in achievement, Education Minister Erica Stanford is confident that the Coalition Government’s 100-day plan for education will improve outcomes for Kiwi kids.  The 2022 PISA results show a significant decline in the performance of 15-year-old students in maths compared to 2018 and confirms ...
    1 day ago
  • Collins leaves for Pacific defence meeting
    Defence Minister Judith Collins today departed for New Caledonia to attend the 8th annual South Pacific Defence Ministers’ meeting (SPDMM). “This meeting is an excellent opportunity to meet face-to-face with my Pacific counterparts to discuss regional security matters and to demonstrate our ongoing commitment to the Pacific,” Judith Collins says. ...
    3 days ago
  • Working for Families gets cost of living boost
    Putting more money in the pockets of hard-working families is a priority of this Coalition Government, starting with an increase to Working for Families, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says. “We are starting our 100-day plan with a laser focus on bringing down the cost of living, because that is what ...
    3 days ago
  • Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme scrapped
    The Government has axed the $16 billion Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme championed by the previous government, Energy Minister Simeon Brown says. “This hugely wasteful project was pouring money down the drain at a time when we need to be reining in spending and focussing on rebuilding the economy and ...
    4 days ago
  • NZ welcomes further pause in fighting in Gaza
    New Zealand welcomes the further one-day extension of the pause in fighting, which will allow the delivery of more urgently-needed humanitarian aid into Gaza and the release of more hostages, Foreign Minister Winston Peters said. “The human cost of the conflict is horrific, and New Zealand wants to see the violence ...
    6 days ago
  • Condolences on passing of Henry Kissinger
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters today expressed on behalf of the New Zealand Government his condolences to the family of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who has passed away at the age of 100 at his home in Connecticut. “While opinions on his legacy are varied, Secretary Kissinger was ...
    6 days ago
  • Backing our kids to learn the basics
    Every child deserves a world-leading education, and the Coalition Government is making that a priority as part of its 100-day plan. Education Minister Erica Stanford says that will start with banning cellphone use at school and ensuring all primary students spend one hour on reading, writing, and maths each day. ...
    6 days ago
  • US Business Summit Speech – Regional stability through trade
    I would like to begin by echoing the Prime Minister’s thanks to the organisers of this Summit, Fran O’Sullivan and the Auckland Business Chamber.  I want to also acknowledge the many leading exporters, sector representatives, diplomats, and other leaders we have joining us in the room. In particular, I would like ...
    7 days ago
  • Keynote Address to the United States Business Summit, Auckland
    Good morning. Thank you, Rosemary, for your warm introduction, and to Fran and Simon for this opportunity to make some brief comments about New Zealand’s relationship with the United States.  This is also a chance to acknowledge my colleague, Minister for Trade Todd McClay, Ambassador Tom Udall, Secretary of Foreign ...
    7 days ago
  • India New Zealand Business Council Speech, India as a Strategic Priority
    Good morning, tēnā koutou and namaskar. Many thanks, Michael, for your warm welcome. I would like to acknowledge the work of the India New Zealand Business Council in facilitating today’s event and for the Council’s broader work in supporting a coordinated approach for lifting New Zealand-India relations. I want to also ...
    1 week ago
  • Coalition Government unveils 100-day plan
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has laid out the Coalition Government’s plan for its first 100 days from today. “The last few years have been incredibly tough for so many New Zealanders. People have put their trust in National, ACT and NZ First to steer them towards a better, more prosperous ...
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Further humanitarian support for Gaza, the West Bank and Israel
    The Government is contributing a further $5 million to support the response to urgent humanitarian needs in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, bringing New Zealand’s total contribution to the humanitarian response so far to $10 million. “New Zealand is deeply saddened by the loss of civilian life and the ...
    3 weeks ago

Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2023-12-06T18:58:00+00:00