Daily review 02/08/2023

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, August 2nd, 2023 - 28 comments
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28 comments on “Daily review 02/08/2023 ”

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  1. observer 1
    2 August 2023 at 6:18 pm

    I'm surprised the latest poll wasn't worse for Labour.

    The most extraordinary thing is that Luxon can't cash in, even when Labour are handing him more free gifts than a drunk Santa.

    Even if he becomes PM, he'll start with less goodwill in the bank than any previous election winner in the MMP era.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/08/newshub-reid-research-poll-results-nearly-half-of-kiwis-don-t-trust-christopher-luxon-chris-hipkins-trust-ranking-sliding-too.html

    • Bearded Git 1.1
      2 August 2023 at 6:26 pm

      Agreed Obs……imagine if Labour has a good couple of months pulling National's spending plans to pieces. The Greens are holding up well.

      • Belladonna 1.1.1
        2 August 2023 at 6:42 pm

        Greens are holding up well

        If (and I don't necessarily believe this latest poll) Labour are dropping like a stone – where is the vote going? It doesn't seem to be going to the GP – which has a stable vote (as you noted) but not an increasing one.

        ACT continue to out-score them in every recent poll.

        .

        • weka 1.1.1.1
          2 August 2023 at 7:59 pm

          wish we had polling like this

        • weka 1.1.1.2
          2 August 2023 at 8:02 pm

          here's my guess.

          Swing centrist voters are going to Nat or NZF

          Swing left voters are going to Lab because of that, rather than Green

          As Nat pick up swing centrist voters, some Nat voters go to Act.

          Not sure there is much use in comparing Act and GP. They're different situations.

          • Belladonna 1.1.1.2.1
            2 August 2023 at 8:39 pm

            Well, taking the latest poll as an example (and I'm not convinced it's accurate – but setting that aside) – and comparing the shift to the previous one by RM (on the basis that polls by the same company are likely to share the same data flaws)

            Labour 30.5 down to 26 (drop of 4.5)

            Greens 9.5 down to 9 (drop of 0.5 – basically margin of error)

            TPM 7 down to 6 (drop of 1)

            NZF 3 up to 5 (increase of 2)

            TOP 3 up to 4 (increase of 1)

            National 30 up to 33.5 (up 3.5)

            ACT 15 (down 1 to 14) (down 1)

            It looks as though the majority of the reduced Labour vote has gone to National, with a smaller % to NZF and TOP. None has gone further left (all the Left parties have dropped, or remained within-the-margin-of error stable)

            Now, this has been a horror polling period for Labour. But TPM and the GP have come out strongly with policies which should appeal to disaffected left-wing Labour voters. So where is their increased vote?

            It looks as though the left-wing of Labour isn't shifting, it's the right wing which is jumping ship. And in this context, I think the NZF results are significant – not that this makes me one bit happy…..

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election

            • weka 1.1.1.2.1.1
              2 August 2023 at 10:21 pm

              Now, this has been a horror polling period for Labour. But TPM and the GP have come out strongly with policies which should appeal to disaffected left-wing Labour voters. So where is their increased vote?

              As I said, my theory is that swing left voters stay with Lab when they think Lab are too weak. They want a left wing govt, and they want the Greens to make Lab a bit more green/left, but not if Lab aren't in a position to form government.

              I'm not a polling person, but I see polls as doing two things. Showing the trend over time, and the political election game ie how MSM, parties and the public respond to individual polls. We all get excited or whatever about individual polls, but this far out I can't see how they mean much. I also think they influence following polls. Who wants to vote for the team perceived as losers?

    • Corey 1.2
      2 August 2023 at 6:31 pm

      But Seymour on 10% preferred pm…… Is…. Yikes….

      Do you think maybe , despite everything we say as a country, NZ just deep down really really likes trickle down economics and user pays?

      Because NZ only ever elects govts who promise to double down on it or govts who will simply manage it and the entire country goes absolutely nuts when even the slightest changes to neolib are put forth.

      Acts promising lower taxes for the rich and to charge everyone else use pay rates upfront for things they get for free now, and a lot of people seem to be supportive of it.

      I hope not but…. maybe we are just a back water.

      It really feels deep down, even poor kiwis don't want to raise taxes on the rich or to make housing truly affordable because most kiwis truly think they'll win lotto next week and join the ranks of the wealthy

      • observer 1.2.1
        2 August 2023 at 6:38 pm

        But Seymour isn't campaigning hard on that. (See the link in my comment, he talks about the Treaty, crime, etc). He's no fool, he knows the best chance of implementing ACT's economic programme is through the back door.

        Seymour is much better at political theatre than Luxon, that's what's working for him.

        • bwaghorn 1.2.1.1
          2 August 2023 at 6:47 pm

          Yip he's a stealthy little rat, people should look under the hood before they by a car.

      • bwaghorn 1.2.2
        2 August 2023 at 6:46 pm

        1984 was nearly 40 years ago, most know know different.

    • Cricklewood 1.3
      2 August 2023 at 7:16 pm

      Tbh I think the Nats at best will get to 36% so long as Act is up around 12… thats 8-10% of the Nats typical voter shifted over to Act and the best the Nats ever did was 48ish under Key.

      Thats about the maximum right wing vote I reckon so not that suprising they havent gone higher. On the day what will really make the difference is if the Labour vote stays home.

      • Kat 1.3.1
        2 August 2023 at 7:24 pm

        Agree, which means every vote counts, and that's Labours challenge to not let the obvious tactic of the oppositions death by 1000 cuts and voting enertia by induced depression stop the left getting out and vote.

      • pat 1.3.2
        2 August 2023 at 7:30 pm

        If 'the Labour vote stays home' they are not (and perhaps never were) Labours vote….something they may wish to (re) consider.

        Nobody deserves a vote by default

    • Ad 1.4
      2 August 2023 at 7:32 pm

      That wide trust differential says Hipkins needs to run on character and affability, not policy.

      its all hes got to sell now.

      • Phillip ure 1.4.1
        2 August 2023 at 7:38 pm

        But they haven't released any policy yet…

        ..so how can you say they have no policies to campaign on..?

  2. Kat 2
    2 August 2023 at 6:59 pm

    https://ondemand.parliament.nz/parliament-tv-on-demand/?itemId=235347

    Chippy doing well….but then, according to the polls, maybe a term of Nact austerity and social upheaval may just be the match that ultimately lights the fuse of real political change in AONZ.

    As the old saying goes…no pain no gain….

  3. Kat 3
    2 August 2023 at 7:30 pm

    Go Chippy………

    • Ad 3.1
      2 August 2023 at 7:34 pm

      character is the right contest.

    • observer 3.2
      2 August 2023 at 8:00 pm

      If we generously assume that all Labour voters trust Hipkins (unlikely) then that still leaves a high percentage of other party's voters who also do. Given his sliding on climate change, we can hardly assume they are all Greens.

      Basically, a bunch of Nats trust Hipkins more than their own leader.

    • Peter 3.3
      2 August 2023 at 8:37 pm

      Go Chippy? As in "How will he go as Leader of the Opposition?"

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