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notices and features - Date published:
5:30 pm, August 4th, 2022 - 23 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
I wonder how many regulars here form parasocial relationships on TS.
https://theconversation.com/love-island-the-psychological-challenges-contestants-and-viewers-could-face-after-the-show-is-over-187948
Never watched the programme. Might watch it for a million dollars but only with a tin foil hat on my head.
I can think of a few on this site over the years who might qualify. 😛 Cameron Slater of course is a notable example of one such individual.
That is a very perceptive comment, Incognito
Radiative response to the Tongan volcanic eruption is large due to water vapour injection.The atmospheric response is inverse to usual volcanic aerosol influence and is similar to mid to high latitude responses from Krakatau.
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/9/6109/2009/
https://twitter.com/NASAJPL/status/1554531180778622976
The question came up in Daily Review yesterday and although this article doesn’t provide much of an answer, it does explain nicely some of the numbers (aka stats).
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300653977/unemployment-is-near-record-lows-so-why-are-more-people-getting-social-welfare
There are likely several problems here.
NZ is a pretty small labour market, and the housing issue has become a big deal for mobility.
Not everyone is prepared to move anywhere, or can afford to live in Auckland.
And there are gatekeepers. I've done a few Likerts psych assessments over the years, and frankly horoscopes would be more predictive. Workplace drug testing – with the risk of false positives and no practical means of refusal also rule people out. And, during the official high inward migration period, recruiters often wouldn't bother with NZers – if they needed 15 workers, the Philippines will reliably produce them without effort, and possibly kickbacks.
Yup, it is easy to compare numbers on either side of the ledger and then move them across, using an Excel spreadsheet, but reality is a little different.
I've linked to it here before (sorry, don't have it to hand immediately) but Stats NZ did a report fairly recently (either 2021 or 2022) on the link between unemployment rates and main benefit numbers which showed that there is not, and has never really been, a statistical relationship between them. Basically, they are two distinct groups of people with limited overlap.
Thanks, I think that would be this link: https://www.stats.govt.nz/research/investigating-the-relationship-between-unemployment-and-benefit-receipt, which was in this comment of yours: https://thestandard.org.nz/business-claims-crisis-as-country-approaches-full-employment-and-wages-increase/#comment-1899781.
Has image fabrication led research into AD down a blind road?There are two lines of evidence to suggest that maybe the case,and a further SEC inquiry in the US.
https://twitter.com/waitbutwhy/status/1551097996800049153
Necrobotic spiders, reanimated piggy bits….whats next I wonder.
https://twitter.com/NYTScience/status/1554845856934797314
https://archive.ph/LdZXK
I know an old lady who swallowed a fly…
Quite…
I can't help but wonder if this is how the zombie apocalyse starts…
It's what they get up to during the weekends…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flatliners
The coup that wasn't?
Or is there more to be played out in this saga?
Maybe the government could requisition Shortland St to find a new leader for the Greens?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/129480238/no-one-stands-against-james-shaw-for-green-party-coleader
I've explained below. It's just Green Party commitment to democracy within the party. And Shaw having to up his game in relation to the activists in the party is a good thing,
Nominations for the Green Party co-leader have now closed, Shaw is the only person nominated. He still has to be voted in (by delegates nominated by members in each branch, he needs 75% of the vote). I think because of the clause that allows nominations to be reopened again.
However this does allow members the chance to talk to Shaw and ask questions, and this seems a good process to go through given the tensions between the activists and the pragmatists in the party.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/live-updates/04-08-2022/james-shaw-will-face-nobody-to-regain-green-co-leader-role-but-he-will-face-ron
A system where 25% can force an election makes some sense to me as a way to see if there are any better candidates interested who were holding back. I can also understand a system where an election requires a vote against no-confidence when there is only one candidate. However, I can't say I really understand an election system for political party leader in which no-confidence only requires 25% against an unopposed candidate to force another election.
It's not a legal requirement for the leader to be an MP, but it's very difficult practically as MPs have a collection of support, legal protections and privileges that a non-MP leader won't have, so there will always be some imbalance between the party leader and the MPs, especially in a co-leader situation where one leader is an MP and the other isn't.
In a situation like this where the other MPs don't want the co-leadership (and they haven't stood/been nominated, so it can be reasonably inferred that they don't want it currently), it's hard to see what a party gains from a minority being able to win a no-confidence vote.
I think the balance point for the 25% reopen nominations thing is trust in the process and the people. The co leader vote is by delegates, who are in the process of talking to members in their branch. They're supposed to vote on instructions from the members (not sure if the vote is transparent or not).
If more than 25% oppose Shaw knowing that there is no-one to take his place, that's basically a crisis for the party. Hard to see why delegates would do that, what would be the point?
Shaw has fronted up and said fair doos to the activists, I would expect changes to happen within the party as a result of the challenge. If changes don't happen, then the activists have a couple of years to find a decent candidate.
Maybe an imbalance, or maybe just different ways of doing things.
I am guessing 25% is a compromise between total consensus and 51%.
Funny thread.
https://twitter.com/benmackey/status/1554605811971674112
Bank of England increases rate by .5 takes to 1.75.
Forecasts UK inflation increase from 9.4% to 13% in q4 2022.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2022/august-2022
there are significant energy increases coming for UK and Europe (updated energy shock for winter is another 10%)
Here we need to review spending (central and local government) and move to enhanced maintenance reducing debt driven growth.