Daily review 04/10/2022

14 comments on “Daily review 04/10/2022 ”

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1. Poission 1

   4 October 2022 at 6:11 pm

   The RBA raises cash rate less then expected,by .25bp.The currency market respond with a sell off in A$ losing 1% since .5% on smaller volumes.

   RBA still projects 2022 inflation of 7.75% as fuel and winter subsidy finish and large energy hikes both made and signaled to come.

   RBNZ still expected to raise by .5% tomorrow as currency depreciation significant,as increased service costs to start effect (such as rates,and utility price increases) and interest rates need to be higher to dampen higher debt demand.
   • Nic the NZer 1.1

     4 October 2022 at 6:33 pm

     Out of interest, which currencies are appreciating at present?
     • Poission 1.1.1

       4 October 2022 at 6:45 pm

       Rouble,Brazilian Real,Mexican peso.This year to date.
       • Nic the NZer 1.1.1.1

         4 October 2022 at 7:10 pm

         Are they the reference currencies when $A depreciates 1%? I would have expected the reference to be just the US$.
         • Poission 1.1.1.1.1

           4 October 2022 at 7:22 pm

           Sorry those were currencies that have appreciated this year.

           With regard to currencies that are appreciating post RBA ( against A$) ,NZ dollar by .15%,pound,Japan .03%,Euro and pound .15%.Kiwi just after announcement was .61
     • Matiri 1.1.2

       4 October 2022 at 6:52 pm

       Sterling at the moment after Truss and Kwarteng's U-turns!
2. alwyn 2

   4 October 2022 at 7:15 pm

   It's lucky I suppose that Roy Morgan is, as always, just another rogue poll.

   Otherwise it would be necessary to accept that Labour in October were down by 5.5% to 29.5% and that Labour plus the Greens were now at 42%. Meanwhile National were up by 0.5% and National plus ACT were up to 48%.

   Does anyone happen to remember what Labour were on when Andrew Little jumped out the window and handed over power to Ms Ardern?

   https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/the-potential-national-act-nz-48-5-coalition-has-stretched-its-lead-over-labour-greens-42-to-the-largest-since-may-2022
   • Peter 2.1

     4 October 2022 at 7:23 pm

     I don't know what they were on. I'm sure it wasn't what you're usually on!
   • Jack 2.2

     4 October 2022 at 7:30 pm

     There is a real poll this weekend. Let’s see the power of an Adern endorsement in Auckland and Wellington. It will either be fairy dust or the kiss of death. I suspect the latter.
     • mauī 2.2.1

       4 October 2022 at 10:36 pm

       Ardern endorsement = papal blessing

       Voices for Freedom endorsement = second coming of hitler

       Don't you just love democracy.
       • Drowsy M. Kram 2.2.1.1

         5 October 2022 at 12:22 am

         Don't you just love democracy.

         "Love" – no, but Democracy's still a bit of alright in my book.

         To VFF – please stop putting disinformation in my letterbox.
   • Belladonna 2.3

     4 October 2022 at 10:41 pm

     I don't know that I'd call it a rogue poll – but it's certainly out-of-step with the virtual level pegging that we've seen from polls over the last few months.

     Roy Morgan did produce one poll earlier this year (April) which showed an 8% gap between the parties – which was not borne out by other polls (or by their own subsequent ones). So they do seem to have more variable (and possibly less accurate) results.

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election

     Let's wait and see what the other polls come out with. Curia will be polling now (they always do the first week of the month)

     But, on the face of it, a shock result for Labour. The Greens should be happy with their 12% (though they'll be horrified to find themselves at the same level as ACT)

     Based on the polling, it seems to me that, whether the election goes left or right, the minor parties (Green or ACT) are going to be a substantial force in the next government.
   • Jimmy 2.4

     5 October 2022 at 8:30 am

     Wasn't the Roy Morgan poll the most accurate prediction of the 2020 election results? Mind you it was probably done very close to the election day.
3. Patricia Bremner 3

   4 October 2022 at 8:07 pm

   Wait till Luxon puts the retirement age out to 70, and does tax cuts, fires half the Public Service, and raises charges for everything. Austerity thinking here we come. Oh and the mortgage sales will be snapped up by the wealthy and developers. If you can afford private insurance you will get your health needs met otherwise you will end up on the falsely shrinking lists. It will be "Be free and independent", while the situation in all areas gets worse, we will be berated about helping ourselves.

   If you think Britain is bad… just wait. What portfolio will Woodhouse, Brownlee, Bishop And Goldsmith Uffy and all have? What a bloody mess that will be.

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