Why? Their chances of being in government, let alone any one of them becoming a cabinet minister are shot. It’s looking more and more like the best outcome the left can hope for this election is a Lab/NZF government. We need to make Labour as strong as possible for that eventuality.
Uh, if they get into parliament, they will be needed in government.
Lab/NZF can only get to 61/62 by themselves if the greens aren’t there so they get more seats from the reallocation of the greens votes.
If the Greens are in, they will be needed by Labour to get to a majority. I doubt that the Greens will be in any way magnanimous about Labour trying to form a minority government with NZ first and trying to get the Greens to give them confidence and supply from outside a coalition.
Just noting that the Green Party went to 12 or 15% when Metiria spoke of welfare. Hold that in your mind if you’re bothering to read this comment.
The media and pundits bayed for blood and the Greens then dropped in the polls (Gower’s ‘never seen before poll’ that he felt compelled to conduct – remember that?)
That initial dip is to be expected when negative onslaughts are unleashed off the back of you having basically put a bomb under a comfortable status quo. But you weather them. You keep going. And the reaction to the manufactured negativity comes and resultant rebound comes too.
But instead, the Green Party didn’t just come off the boil, it came off the front foot, back peddled and sat down. They lost momentum and they lost headlines, but worst of all, they left a lot of very negative perceptions hanging in the air.
There’s no nice way to say this. They allowed the negative shit coming from msm and pundits to shape their actions, and a consequence of those defensive actions was the wave of bullshit coming from msm was suddenly unopposed and able to shape and possibly set the perceptions of many people.
And just to help it all along, they said ‘sorry’.
Whatever Shaw meant by apologising is irrelevant. He was talking to NZ and many have simply heard it as an apology for giving a platform to Metiria (a “lying Maori bitch” as far as much of the msm and punditry was/is concerned, in case you missed that from their “oh so subtle” coverage).
So now the Green Party’s in trouble.
And it’s in trouble primarily because it listened first and foremost to what media was saying and reacted to media reporting on its own impacts on general perceptions – instead of continuing to simply and diligently stand its ground and say what it had to say.
They’ll be in government. But they’ve ceded all the high ground they occupied, and all the running they had, and so won’t be the presence in government that they really ought to be and that we (NZ in general) really need them to be.
And yes. I want everything I’ve written in this comment to be absolutely and completely wrong.
The Greens went to 12 or 15% when they crapped all over the MOU and went after Labour’s voters because they thought that Labour was tanking. They (like the rest of us) never imagined that Labour was even capable of or contemplating the dramatic upheaval that saw Little resign and Ardern installed as leader. They miscalculated and now they’ve made their bed (as my mother would say) and they must lie in it.
Your right OAB no party ‘owns’ voters. But some (most?) voters do lend political parties their allegiance. And as we’ve seen in the last 2 weeks those bonds can be pretty strong.
But all this bickering is based entirely on supposing what actions caused or mitigated which gain or loss, and which voters migrated from party A to party B.
All we know is that Labour is on a roll, National are in gradual decline, NZ1 is levelling and the Greens have taken a big, but recoverable, hit.
Don’t go there. Greens spoke for the folk Labour have consigned to poverty, and Labour chose Blairism with the enthusiastic support of the media plague rats, instead of following the Corbynite lead.
Labour should have led on this issue, but unfortunately they’re the same old sellouts, chalking up victories on gender issues instead of addressing poverty and injustice.
The polls are not to be trusted – they’re faked to license the media narrative that the failed austerity policies of the last two governments are not to be questioned.
Stuart Munro
Stop being so clear sighted and factual – it’s not what is good to hear and
should only be whispered behind your hands at midnight in a dark place,
while you are wearing funereal black.
So, the polls were to be trusted when they showed the Greens at record highs, but they’re not to be trusted anymore..?
The polls are not faked. We might not like them all the time, they my each have slightly different outcomes because of slightly different methodologies, and this far out they’re certainly not predictive (a lot can happen in 5 weeks), but they’re not faked. Saying that is juvenile and paranoid.
I think the Greens will bounce back. They won’t bounce as high as they did when Labour was low, but I doubt they’ll stay this low. I do disagree with Bill (above) about why they’ve had such a tough time, though. Metiria’s announcement was always a risky strategy – the media were always going to go digging – it’s what they do. It looks like it wasn’t fully thought through. If it hadn’t been rushed, then they would have made sure they talked to people like ex flatmates, sat down and raked through her past with her for other revelations that could be distracting or undermining, and – most importantly – really made a team decision, with everyone committed to it, rather than having some caucus members uncomfortable and aggrieved. If they’d gone through a thorough process before going public, they would have either:
1) decided not to go public with the personal story, or
2) kept control of the story and kept the focus on the issues, knowing that there were no more layers to unpeel and that they could stick it out as a team.
Oh really. Remember Gower’s poll – 75% landline and 25% online – not because that’s a credible measure of anything, but because it gave him the numbers to back his fatuous story. It didn’t get much attention because RNZ got Metiria’s scalp, not Gower, but Gower’s whole statistical edifice was poppycock. That’s how debased our media are.
You have to use statistical sampling critically to generate anything other than noise – but current pollsters have found that particular results are much more palatable than the vagaries of real sampling. These are easy to generate, much easier than getting truly representative data.
Tell me that Gower or Hosking or Joyce are too rigorous to deliberately use compromised data – I could use a laugh.
The same kind of polling that YouGov showed to be largely fallacious.
Small samples, selection bias, leading questions – it really isn’t difficult to not get real results.
These fraudulent results can then be used to justify the vigorous deployment of MSM propaganda, which, unless it is debunked will gradually erode real support and create a false consensus around an issue.
The YouGov polls were not a trivial element of Corbyn’s revival of Labour – they showed the pundits to be wrong and even forced the BBC to step away from their biased anti-Corbyn stance.
A reputable poll would need at least 2000 respondents – and pay some attention to age and income and geographical distribution to ensure the result was meaningful.
Colmar Brunton do pay attention to those issues, Stuart, and the question is the same each time (“If an election was held tomorrow…?”). Plus, the sample number reflects the size of NZ’s population. I’m not a statistician (are you?), but I doubt that they’re lying about the margin of error.
I hope and believe that the Greens will bounce back, but that doesn’t make this poll faked or deliberately biased.
The easiest litmus test for fake polls is whether they elide the undecided and won’t say groups to create the false impression that National enjoys support in the 40s. Because of the substantial undecided/won’t say fraction, Gnat support is in the 30s. But that makes them look like what they are – a conservative rump that only survive through intensive media life support. It’s time to pull that plug.
As for Colmar Brunton – polls of 750-1000 aren’t worth much more than horoscopes. YouGov used 40 000 +.
It didn’t help that one of the first things Ardern dis as leader was distance herself from Turei, a few hours after Gower said she should say she wouldn’t have Turei as a minister. Ardern did not need to do that.
That and a couple of other things signalled to me, and probably a few others, that team Ardern would prefer NZ Furst as an ally rather than the GP. If that happens, the NZ left will be set back a couple of decades, along with those on the lowest incomes, and beneficiaries.
It should be clear to left wingers what they should do – vote, and vote to keep the NZ left alive in parliamentary politics.
She absolutely did need to do that Carolyn-nth. Turei’s position was deteriorating by the hour and Ardern needed a bit of space to get Labour back on an even keel.
So, do you really think a new government could appoint someone as a Minister who would still at that time be under active investigation by a government department to assess the extent of fraud? How would you react if a National government did that?
If Turei had thought things through more, she would have worked things out with MSD before going public, and there could have been a settlement in place. She didn’t. And yes, I know she needed the money at the time, but she’s got plenty of cash now and she was running a political campaign, hoping to become Minister of the department that would be investigating her.
Ardern didn’t flinch – she took a tough decision. She also gave Turei the chance to make her own decision and announcement.
Turei and the Greens championed an important cause and the choice to use her own story added authenticity, but it also had risks and negatives attached and you can’t blame people who were in no way involved in the decision to use that strategy for the outcomes of that.
Carolyn and Stuart,
Jacinda did what she had to do if she wants to be PM. Show she had standards and could make tough decisions.
The public has seen that and it has paid dividends. If you want proof ask JK. Ex PMs like Bolger, Clark and Key, all of whom won three elections, know at a very intimate level just what is required to be a successful PM. Making tough decisions on instinct without a lot of endless reflection is one of the essential attributes. I have seen enough of each of them, especially Bolger and Key since I was in the same party, of how they actually make such decisions.
My sense of Ardern both from interacting with her in Parliament and also since (PACDAC) is that she instantly knew Meritia, as the issue unraveled, could not be in Cabinet.
Wayne – you are so utterly corrupt your opinion is worthless.
John Key is the worst Prime Minister New Zealand has ever had – one does not achieve the most expensive housing, the worst homelessness, and the highest suicide rates in the OECD without being the worst government in the OECD.
That’s what you were – for heaven’s sake take some responsibility!
And a cynical person would say that that’s exactly the kind of doubt that he wants to sow in our minds… Yes, really, that nice Mr Key – it’s just possible that he’s got his own motivations for his public statements.
Piss off, adam. If you see the Labour Party as hard right then your judgement is so skewed as to be worthless.
I’m a secondary school teacher and I have a lifetime of volunteering in fair trade groups, unions, social support groups, international charities and environmental groups, women’s groups, public education lobby groups… if that’s your view of hard Right then that says more about you than me.
@ Adam – no he’s not. A lot of Labour supporters have managed not to get too badly burnt by their party’s actions. They are good people and expect the best of their party, as I used to. Snuggling up to decaying sacs of flesh like Gower will damage Labour in the long term however, and do little to alleviate the distress of those impoverished by the failures of neo-liberalism.
So red-blooded and I’ve asked this from you before, where is the socialist economic policy from the labour party?
You know, left wing economic policy.
None, well bugger me – what else is new.
You lot have a coup, go up in the polls and then lord it over the rest of the left.
So let me rephrase my argument, red-blooded is just another authoritarian labour party hack. Who like everyone else in that party struggles to work with others, Astrturfs, and would rather loss an election (the last one does come to mind) rather than share power with a left wing party.
Mind you, in historical context. The liberal party in NZ was very much the same. I’m sure people who were the wet’s in there day, were very much the same.
My understanding is that trends tend not to show up til at least several weeks after an event. James Shaw made that “not so great together” speech at the relaunch on Sunday 13 Aug. This latest released poll result was conducted from 12-16 Aug,
Trends take more than one poll to show them – that’s what makes them trends. A single poll can certainly show a reaction to a major event or series of events, though. Again, people here were perfectly happy to interpret the poll that put the Greens so high after their conference as a reaction to Metiria’s speech…
I usually dont make much comment on polls. I tend to comment more on the narratives people derive from them – often the MSM tend to make very slanted headlines.
In my comment at 8.04pm above, I was responding to Bill’s comment in which cited some words spoken by James Shaw. As those words were in James Shaw’s speech at the GP relaunch Sunday pm, they were spoken a day and a half into the Colmar Brunton polling period – which was 12-16 August. So I doubt that speech would be the main cause of the poll drop for the GP.
My understanding is that poll watchers say it takes a few weeks for any single event to show in a poll, as well as for a change in trends. But I could be wrong.
I don’t recall ever making a comment about that 15% GP poll (on or offline).
I don’t think I said that you had commented about that 15%poll, CN. I hadn’t checked back, so I just said “people”. For an example, look at Bill’s comment (3.4.2.2). There was a lot of rejoicing on this site about that poll and no talk then about time delays – a direct link was made between the conference speech and the lift in the poll. I just think we have to be consistent.
And, Bill, the media were the ones who delivered that speech of Metiria’s to the wider public. Somehow, that part of things was OK but not the follow-up work..?
The media were always going to dig and look for another angle on the story – that’s what they do. Turei knew this – she’s been a politician long enough to know how it works. Sorry, but while I admired the message, I still think there was some rushed and/or shoddy thinking and a lack of prep with other interested parties (including the Greens’ caucus).
If Shaw’s words are out of kilter with the time line then fine. The fact still remains that the Green Party went up off the back of Metiria launching the welfare policy.
And then msm set to business.
And unlike other examples I can think of, the Greens didn’t (or didn’t manage to) hold their ground against negative msm messaging.
Dunno how “intelligent” you’d have to be, but helping the Greens is a good idea for leftists.
I’d certainly be tempted to vote Green to help them over the line.
As it is, I reckon that this is the low point and they’ll be in Parliament in October.
The important bit from this poll is National down 3%. Might be statistacl error, but when you’re that close to the margin the odds are that it’s something to look at.
Don’t be daft. There’s been a lot happening in politics in recent weeks and we’re building up to an election – it’s hardly surprising that a poll’s been conducted.
When the poll that showed the Greens so high was published, was that “on purpose”, too? If so, whose purpose?
Indeed. Apart from the timing of the leadership change (Trudeau had a year and a bit as Opposition Leader before the elections) the parallels are striking.
Greens are out for 2017
They have pursued devisive short term campaiging for too long. A spell out of parliement *may* bring them to their senses. I hope so !
At this point in the electoral cycle, they tend to overstate National by about 4% in my opinion. They also understate the minor parties. Their Labour value is bounces around a bit.
I think that they have some weird population that they sample from. I’d imagine that it is like getting the Auckland sample exclusively from the North Shore or Epsom.
I think I heard the Colmar Brunton guy say on RNZ this morning that they still don’t ring cellphones. They still just ring landlines but correct for age bands and other factors.
Also the TV1 report on the Colmar Brunton poll said that “undecided votes had fallen by 7%” but they didn’t say from what to what.
Yes, and it has consistently over-estimated the number of Nat voters – at least in comparison to other public polling companies. I think you can safely assume that the more likely percentage of Nat voters at any given time averages around 2% less.
That would mean the difference between Nat. and Lab is currently around 5%.
What are you talking about? The mess these guys are creating will be much more difficult to retrieve in three years time. Social issues will worsen. Infrastructure issues will worsen, the list goes on.
Can’t really believe you could be that callous toward the vulnerable in this country that you’d just shrug and say, ‘oh well, next time’.
That’s always been a distinct possibility. If anything though, this poll lessens the likelihood of that outcome since Winston won’t have to deal with the Greens.
Hopefully Swordfish will be along soon with the stats. But I seem to recall that the last Colmar-Brunton before the 2014 election slightly overstated National, understated the Greens a bit and had Labour about right?
Yes, and it has consistently over-estimated the number of Nat voters – at least in comparison to other public polling companies. I think you can safely assume that the more likely percentage of Nat voters at any given time averages around 2% less.
That would mean the difference between Nat. and Lab is currently around 5%.
The Nats will still use that Dirty Politics worm even if they are turfed out of office next month but their war chest will diminish and their ability to poll will also.
I think they can be both an environment party and a social justice party but they need to think hard about their delivery. In the last month they have screwed up their social justice policy and Labour is getting all the press on the environment. Even the Nats farted about an electric car for the government fleet when the Greens were preoccupied.
The Greens’ “preoccupation” was somewhat engineered by hysterical media.
Fortunately, we have weeks to go. But it strikes me as a funny pattern. Last election the most left-wing party was Te Mana. Slaughtered by the media because they unwisely hooked up with KDC..
This time the Greens are the most left-wing party. History repeating itself?
Greens must play very carefully from now on.
yep. The mainstream media like a centrist Labour-led government if they don’t have a National-led one. They tend to demonise people and parties solidly left.
So what are you questioning here, sweetie pie?
1) Hone decided to take the money. Tick.
2) Surely if people DID trust him, they’d have elected him? And yet they didn’t… And don’t blame the media – Mana had plenty of money to get their message out, it just didn’t ring true.
Hone is incredibly self-serving. Last time, he took the money and thought he could buy his way back into parliament. This time, he’s hooked up again with the Māori Party, despite supposedly seeing them as sell-outs for going with the Nats. Plus, he’s been telling lies about Willy Jackson (saying he supports people voting for Hone over Kelvin Davis – something Jackson absolutely refutes) and trying to get Labour to gift him a seat.
Sue Bradford got it right when she walked away from Mana.
But that is a moronic attitude. A beats B by one vote in an electorate of thousands, and you use that thin pretext to condemn the guy who lost by one vote as utterly useless.
Grow up, simpleton.
What’s the received wisdom on time between an event and how it shows up in voter patterns? I thought it was a couple of weeks but is it different during an election when interest is higher?
@ weka
In terms of major policy planks, it used to be said that it took two months to be disseminated and assimilated by the majority of punters. But when you have the kind of seismic political changes we have seen these past few weeks, I’m picking its around two weeks before the full impact is felt.
If I’m right, the Greens have bottomed out and should be on the rise again by the end of this week. 🙂
He started the sentence without knowing how he was going to finish it – scary feeling for anyone but with someone as innately dull and authoritarian as Bill it can’t end well.
It doesn’t have any to do with policy at the moment though does it? It’s all about personality at the moment, and 1 person’s personality at that. This poll won’t even have captured her savvy, assured handling of the unhinged attack form Julie Bishop which even had Mark Richardson (yes him!) whispering on The Project last night that she looked pretty prime ministerial.
Some of the Green MPs are doing an AMA on reddit this evening.
Gareth Hughes,
Thanks for the question – yes, of course we weren’t happy about the poll tonight but also not surprised we dropped. As James has said the last few weeks we haven’t been that great and we haven’t been that together. We care deeply about our issues and we are going to work hard to turn this around. We’ve reset our campaign, refocused our priorities to clean rivers, ending poverty and tackling climate change and we’re going to give this campaign everything we have. We’re going to be telling people with so many important issues facing our country we need Greens in Parliament and Greens in the next progressive Government.
Kia ora koutou – I’m sure everyone would like to know how you plan build the party back after today’s poll. I appreciate it’s only one poll but to be so low for the first time in so long has to ring some alarm bells.
How will you rebound and what’s the plan for the future of the leadership, in particular?
________
[–]GarethMPGareth Hughes MP – Verified 5 points 16 minutes ago
Thanks for the question – I answered it above in the thread and yes, it is one poll but we are taking it seriously. I can give you one example. In previous elections we have only directly contacted a small number of voters, we have some pretty ambitious contact targets that we are on track to achieve with most of the campaign gone. We have re-jigged our leadership team and have Marama Davison leading on ending poverty, Julie Anne-Genter on tackling climate change and Eugenie Sage on cleaning up our rivers. We also have record membership, donations and volunteers so know our fundamentals are strong. We are in the campaign of our lifetimes. On leadership, we will elect a new female co-leader July next year (that’s the benefit of a co-leadership model) and I think James is doing a fantastic job representing our values and vision in public. Cheers
I think National could go a bit lower yet infused, maybe 39 to 42%. Colmar Brunton does tend to overestimate their support. And Ardern could push Labour to 40. I agree though that a Lab/NZF government is rapidly becoming the most likely outcome of this election. I also think the Greens will comfortably clear the 5% threshold but be under 8%.
UMR already had National drifting down towards 42 before most of the drama unfolded. Their problem, of course, is a lack of options. Especially if Dunne loses and the Māori Party lose Waiariki.
You seem to have an unhealthy fixation on those three, and have made some rather unpleasant comments about Trevett’s appearance in the past. Is mocking a woman’s appearance okay if you don’t like her?
You’re being a bit sensitive. I do have an unhealthy fixation on them but that is because they are not neutral and I expect better from senior journalists.
Trevett’s profile picture drives me nuts because she has an oily face in it so I call her ‘the oily one’ – it’s just a fact. I also call Steven Joyce ‘cone head’ because he has a cone head – a fact again.
If election held today with only those polled oh dear that would be a shocker for the Greens. But that isn’t the case therefore it is just nothing on top of nil with some zero added in. Double down on EVERYTHING and let’s send the gnats hopping.
But to reinforce the lines I will no longer give my vote to Labour , but to the Greens. Which is a pity because for the first time in 30 odd years I was going to vote Labour, dang it !
But the name of the game is to get rid of National and Labour will need their support partners, so every little drop in the bucket is important.
It sure is ATM and I’m thinking they pegged out their claim when the Antarctic Treaty comes up for renewal around 2020 I believe? There is evidence ATM to suggest that China is also under reporting (also using its soft aid to pay off officials or provide cheap loans/ aid for projects with strings attached) the fish being caught by its own fishing trawlers only in the South West Pacific, but in the Southern Ocean as well.
Running off my iPad atm, but I’ll find the a link I post here sometime ago about Chinese over fishing/ underreporting of their catches in the South Pacific and how the likes of NZ, Oz, the Yanks and French who the bulk of Maritime Fisheries Patrols in the region are having problems in co-ord some of the maritime patrols with of small nations within the South Pacific .
Ardern should gift Wellington Central to James Shaw if the polls stay this tight. It could mean not having to put up with NZF in government. As time goes on and Labour’s vote creeps over 40% (and I think it will), National’s vote will start reducing in turn. Who needs Winston?
Labour need to grow their vote from NZF. Because as the GP recovers they will pick up Labour voters again.
Or, it’s all a nonsense anyway 😉
btw, in 2014 Robertson got nearly 20,000 votes, Shaw got 5,000. I think there are probably other electorates that the GP could do better in. Were you thinking Labour could withdraw Robertson? Hard to imagine them doing that given his seniority, and Labour’s position on standing in every seat (and L/G agreement not to do deals).
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What is it with the mining industry? Its not enough for them to pillage the earth - they apparently can't even be bothered getting resource consent to do so: The proponent behind a major mine near the Clutha River had already been undertaking activity in the area without a ...
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Buzz from the Beehive Reactions to news of the government’s readiness to make urgent changes to “the resource management system” through a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) suggest a balanced approach is being taken. The Taxpayers’ Union says the proposed changes don’t go far enough. Greenpeace says ...
I’m starting to wonder if Anna Burns-Francis might be the best political interviewer we’ve got. That might sound unlikely to you, it came as a bit of a surprise to me.Jack Tame can be excellent, but has some pretty average days. I like Rebecca Wright on Newshub, she asks good ...
Chris Trotter writes – Willie Jackson is said to be planning a “media summit” to discuss “the state of the media and how to protect Fourth Estate Journalism”. Not only does the Editor of The Daily Blog, Martyn Bradbury, think this is a good idea, but he has also ...
Graeme Edgeler writes – This morning [April 21], the Wellington High Court is hearing a judicial review brought by Hon. Karen Chhour, the Minister for Children, against a decision of the Waitangi Tribunal. This is unusual, judicial reviews are much more likely to brought against ministers, rather than ...
Both of Parliament’s watchdogs have now ripped into the Government’s Fast-track Approvals Bill. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMy pick of the six newsey things to know from Aotearoa’s political economy and beyond on the morning of Tuesday, April 23 are:The Lead: The Auditor General,John Ryan, has joined the ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Sarah SpengemanPeople wait to board an electric bus in Pune, India. (Image credit: courtesy of ITDP) Public transportation riders in Pune, India, love the city’s new electric buses so much they will actually skip an older diesel bus that ...
The infrastructure industry yesterday issued a “hurry up” message to the Government, telling it to get cracking on developing a pipeline of infrastructure projects.The hiatus around the change of Government has seen some major projects cancelled and others delayed, and there is uncertainty about what will happen with the new ...
Hi,Over the weekend I revisited a podcast I really adore, Dead Eyes. It’s about a guy who got fired from Band of Brothers over two decades ago because Tom Hanks said he had “dead eyes”.If you don’t recall — 2001’s Band of Brothers was part of the emerging trend of ...
Buzz from the Beehive The 180 or so recipients of letters from the Government telling them how to submit infrastructure projects for “fast track” consideration includes some whose project applications previously have been rejected by the courts. News media were quick to feature these in their reports after RMA Reform Minister Chris ...
It would not be a desirable way to start your holiday by breaking your back, your head, or your wrist, but on our first hour in Singapore I gave it a try.We were chatting, last week, before we started a meeting of Hazel’s Enviro Trust, about the things that can ...
Calling all journalists, academics, planners, lawyers, political activists, environmentalists, and other members of the public who believe that the relationships between vested interests and politicians need to be scrutinised. We need to work together to make sure that the new Fast-Track Approvals Bill – currently being pushed through by the ...
Feel worried. Shane Jones and a couple of his Cabinet colleagues are about to be granted the power to override any and all objections to projects like dams, mines, roads etc even if: said projects will harm biodiversity, increase global warming and cause other environmental harms, and even if ...
Bryce Edwards writes- The ability of the private sector to quickly establish major new projects making use of the urban and natural environment is to be supercharged by the new National-led Government. Yesterday it introduced to Parliament one of its most significant reforms, the Fast Track Approvals Bill. ...
Michael Bassett writes – If you think there is a move afoot by the radical Maori fringe of New Zealand society to create a parallel system of government to the one that we elect at our triennial elections, you aren’t wrong. Over the last few days we have ...
Without a corresponding drop in interest rates, it’s doubtful any changes to the CCCFA will unleash a massive rush of home buyers. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: The six things that stood out to me in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, poverty and climate on Monday, April 22 included:The Government making a ...
Sunday was a lazy day. I started watching Jack Tame on Q&A, the interviews are usually good for something to write about. Saying the things that the politicians won’t, but are quite possibly thinking. Things that are true and need to be extracted from between the lines.As you might know ...
In our Weekly Roundup last week we covered news from Auckland Transport that the WX1 Western Express is going to get an upgrade next year with double decker electric buses. As part of the announcement, AT also said “Since we introduced the WX1 Western Express last November we have seen ...
TL;DR: The six key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to April 29 include:PM Christopher Luxon is scheduled to hold a post-Cabinet news conference at 4 pm today. Stats NZ releases its statutory report on Census 2023 tomorrow.Finance Minister Nicola Willis delivers a pre-Budget speech at ...
A listing of 29 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 14, 2024 thru Sat, April 20, 2024. Story of the week Our story of the week hinges on these words from the abstract of a fresh academic ...
The ability of the private sector to quickly establish major new projects making use of the urban and natural environment is to be supercharged by the new National-led Government. Yesterday it introduced to Parliament one of its most significant reforms, the Fast Track Approvals Bill. The Government says this will ...
This is a column to say thank you. So many of have been in touch since Mum died to say so many kind and thoughtful things. You’re wonderful, all of you. You’ve asked how we’re doing, how Dad’s doing. A little more realisation each day, of the irretrievable finality of ...
Identifying the engine type in your car is crucial for various reasons, including maintenance, repairs, and performance upgrades. Knowing the specific engine model allows you to access detailed technical information, locate compatible parts, and make informed decisions about modifications. This comprehensive guide will provide you with a step-by-step approach to ...
Introduction: The allure of racing is undeniable. The thrill of speed, the roar of engines, and the exhilaration of competition all contribute to the allure of this adrenaline-driven sport. For those who yearn to experience the pinnacle of racing, becoming a race car driver is the ultimate dream. However, the ...
Introduction Automobiles have become ubiquitous in modern society, serving as a primary mode of transportation and a symbol of economic growth and personal mobility. With countless vehicles traversing roads and highways worldwide, it begs the question: how many cars are there in the world? Determining the precise number is a ...
Maintaining a safe and reliable vehicle requires regular inspections. Whether it’s a routine maintenance checkup or a safety inspection, knowing how long the process will take can help you plan your day accordingly. This article delves into the factors that influence the duration of a car inspection and provides an ...
Mazda Motor Corporation, commonly known as Mazda, is a Japanese multinational automaker headquartered in Fuchu, Aki District, Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan. The company was founded in 1920 as the Toyo Cork Kogyo Co., Ltd., and began producing vehicles in 1931. Mazda is primarily known for its production of passenger cars, but ...
Your car battery is an essential component that provides power to start your engine, operate your electrical systems, and store energy. Over time, batteries can weaken and lose their ability to hold a charge, which can lead to starting problems, power failures, and other issues. Replacing your battery before it ...
In most states, you cannot register a car without a valid driver’s license. However, there are a few exceptions to this rule. Exceptions to the RuleIf you are under 18 years old: In some states, you can register a car in your name even if you do not ...
Mazda, a Japanese automotive manufacturer with a rich history of innovation and engineering excellence, has emerged as a formidable player in the global car market. Known for its reputation of producing high-quality, fuel-efficient, and driver-oriented vehicles, Mazda has consistently garnered praise from industry experts and consumers alike. In this article, ...
Struts are an essential part of a car’s suspension system. They are responsible for supporting the weight of the car and damping the oscillations of the springs. Struts are typically made of steel or aluminum and are filled with hydraulic fluid. How Do Struts Work? Struts work by transferring the ...
Car registration is a mandatory process that all vehicle owners must complete annually. This process involves registering your car with the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) and paying an associated fee. The registration process ensures that your vehicle is properly licensed and insured, and helps law enforcement and other authorities ...
Zoom is a video conferencing service that allows you to share your screen, webcam, and audio with other participants. In addition to sharing your own audio, you can also share the audio from your computer with other participants. This can be useful for playing music, sharing presentations with audio, or ...
Building your own computer can be a rewarding and cost-effective way to get a high-performance machine tailored to your specific needs. However, it also requires careful planning and execution, and one of the most important factors to consider is the time it will take. The exact time it takes to ...
Sleep mode is a power-saving state that allows your computer to quickly resume operation without having to boot up from scratch. This can be useful if you need to step away from your computer for a short period of time but don’t want to shut it down completely. There are ...
Introduction Computer-Assisted Translation (CAT) has revolutionized the field of translation by harnessing the power of technology to assist human translators in their work. This innovative approach combines specialized software with human expertise to improve the efficiency, accuracy, and consistency of translations. In this comprehensive article, we will delve into the ...
In today’s digital age, mobile devices have become an indispensable part of our daily lives. Among the vast array of portable computing options available, iPads and tablet computers stand out as two prominent contenders. While both offer similar functionalities, there are subtle yet significant differences between these two devices. This ...
A computer is an electronic device that can be programmed to carry out a set of instructions. The basic components of a computer are the processor, memory, storage, input devices, and output devices. The Processor The processor, also known as the central processing unit (CPU), is the brain of the ...
Voice Memos is a convenient app on your iPhone that allows you to quickly record and store audio snippets. These recordings can be useful for a variety of purposes, such as taking notes, capturing ideas, or recording interviews. While you can listen to your voice memos on your iPhone, you ...
Laptop screens are essential for interacting with our devices and accessing information. However, when lines appear on the screen, it can be frustrating and disrupt productivity. Understanding the underlying causes of these lines is crucial for finding effective solutions. Types of Screen Lines Horizontal lines: Also known as scan ...
Right-clicking is a common and essential computer operation that allows users to access additional options and settings. While most desktop computers have dedicated right-click buttons on their mice, laptops often do not have these buttons due to space limitations. This article will provide a comprehensive guide on how to right-click ...
Powering up and shutting down your ASUS laptop is an essential task for any laptop user. Locating the power button can sometimes be a hassle, especially if you’re new to ASUS laptops. This article will provide a comprehensive guide on where to find the power button on different ASUS laptop ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
Te Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, and Mema Paremata mō Tāmaki-Makaurau, Takutai Tarsh Kemp, will travel to the Gold Coast to strengthen ties with Māori in Australia next week (15-21 April). The visit, in the lead-up to the 9th Australian National Kapa haka Festival, will be an opportunity for both ...
The Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...
The National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...
A significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...
New Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...
Today’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...
Minister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...
Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...
Distinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
Mai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...
Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...
Associate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...
Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today. I am delighted ...
The Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...
New Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...
Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...
The Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...
“China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...
A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
I was initially resistant to the idea often suggested to me that the Government should deliver an arts strategy. The whole point of the arts and creativity is that people should do whatever the hell they want, unbound by the dictates of politicians in Wellington. Peter Jackson, Kiri Te Kanawa, Eleanor ...
Pacific Media Watch Palestine solidarity protesters today demonstrated at the Auckland headquarters of Television New Zealand, accusing the country’s major TV network of broadcasting “propaganda” backing Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza. About 50 protesters targeted the main entrance to the TVNZ building near Sky Tower and also picketed a side ...
Opinion by Lynley Hood. Forty years on from my 1985 Fulbright Grant, my disquiet over the war in Gaza evoked some troubling questions. The answer to my first question – What is the primary purpose of the Fulbright Programme? – was on the Fulbright NZ website. It says: US Senator, ...
The ministers responsible for green-lighting major projects need to be open about potential conflicts of interest, says Transparency International. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Powell, Professor, Family and Sexual Violence, RMIT University It has been a particularly distressing start to the year. There is little that can ease the current grief of individuals, families and communities who have needlessly lost a loved one to men’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Moore, Senior Research Associate, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne Lichen, the first described example of symbiosis.AdeJ Artventure/Shutterstock Once known only to those studying biology, the word symbiosis is now widely used. Symbiosis is the intimate ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kim Hemsley, Head, Childhood Dementia Research Group, Flinders Health and Medical Research Institute, College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University Olena Ivanova/Shutterstock “Childhood” and “dementia” are two words we wish we didn’t have to use together. But sadly, around 1,400 ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Whiteford, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University The government’s Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee has just published its second report. It was set up by Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Minister for Social Services Amanda Rishworth in 2022 to provide: ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne The Queensland state election will be held in October. A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted April 9–17 from a sample ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Naeni, PhD candidate at Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University There’s been much talk in recent months about what a possible second Donald Trump presidency in the United States could mean for Europe, Russia’s war in Ukraine, the ...
A brief round-up of submissions on the controversial proposed law. This is an excerpt from our weekly environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. Last week, submissions on the controversial Fast-track Approvals Bill closed just hours after the government released a list of stakeholder organisations who were sent letters advising how they could ...
A poem from Robin Peace’s new collection Detritus of Empire: feather / grass / rock. Cereal giving I see a woman’s hands, see her curious hands break a stalk as she walks through the tall prairie, the savannah, the steppe, wherever it was. See her idly bite the grass that ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Hemingway’s Goblet by Dermot Ross (Mary Egan Publishing, $38)A handsomely produced (debossed cover, lovely ...
The Commissioner's decision validates the longstanding efforts of the local community and ensures that Awataha Marae will be managed to serve the needs of the local community, particularly for hosting tangihanga. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tristan Salles, Associate professor, University of Sydney Examples of Australian landscapes.Unsplash Seventy thousand years ago, the sea level was much lower than today. Australia, along with New Guinea and Tasmania, formed a connected landmass known as Sahul. Around this time – ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Felicity Castagna, Lecturer, Creative Writing, Western Sydney University Day Day Market, ParramattaPhoto: Garry Trinh I live on the edge of Parramatta, Australia’s fastest-growing city, on the kind of old-fashioned suburban street that has 1950s fibros constructed in the post-war housing boom, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Ryan, Teaching Fellow in Economics, University of Waikato GettyImagesfatido/Getty Images There is an ongoing global debate over whether the high inflation seen in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic can be lowered without a recession. New Zealand is not ...
The ‘Wicked Game’ heartthrob is in his late 60s now. That didn’t stop him putting on a lively, goofy and very sparkly show. Apart from ‘Wicked Game’, which graces a sultry playlist of mine simply called 💋, my last sustained Chris Isaak listening session took place when I was about ...
Analysis - Two ministers were stripped of portfolios in a warning to Cabinet, drama broke out at the Waitangi Tribunal, and the gang patch ban bill ran into opposition. ...
Tara Ward makes an impassioned plea for some vital pop culture merch. In April 1999, I became obsessed with a new reality television show called Popstars. Every Tuesday night, five strangers transformed into music royalty before my very eyes as Joe, Keri, Carly, Erika and Megan were chosen to form ...
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Anything interesting happening?
Isn’t there a poll tonight?
Colmar Brunton:
Nats 44
Lab 37
Green 4 (4.3%)
NZF 10
TOP 2
MP 2
Preferred PM Jacinda 30 Bill 30
Greens will bounce back-some intelligent Labour people should also vote tactically if 5% is in doubt.
National continuing their downward trend
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-greens-plummet-below-five-per-cent-jacinda-effect-keeps-labour-climbing
The poll was conducted between August 12 and 16 with 1007 eligible voters.
Didnt the greens take a wee tumble as well?
Intelligent Labour, TOP and New Zealand First people should just vote for the Greens anyway, as they have better policies and better candidates.
+111
+1000
I don’t want to vote Green this time because they’ve shown themselves to be tactically useless. But with 5% looking in doubt I think I may have to.
Why? Their chances of being in government, let alone any one of them becoming a cabinet minister are shot. It’s looking more and more like the best outcome the left can hope for this election is a Lab/NZF government. We need to make Labour as strong as possible for that eventuality.
Uh, if they get into parliament, they will be needed in government.
Lab/NZF can only get to 61/62 by themselves if the greens aren’t there so they get more seats from the reallocation of the greens votes.
If the Greens are in, they will be needed by Labour to get to a majority. I doubt that the Greens will be in any way magnanimous about Labour trying to form a minority government with NZ first and trying to get the Greens to give them confidence and supply from outside a coalition.
Intelligent people will vote Labour.
Not if they actually care about New Zealand’s future.
National lite needs a large helping of Greens, to keep them honest.
Just noting that the Green Party went to 12 or 15% when Metiria spoke of welfare. Hold that in your mind if you’re bothering to read this comment.
The media and pundits bayed for blood and the Greens then dropped in the polls (Gower’s ‘never seen before poll’ that he felt compelled to conduct – remember that?)
That initial dip is to be expected when negative onslaughts are unleashed off the back of you having basically put a bomb under a comfortable status quo. But you weather them. You keep going. And the reaction to the manufactured negativity comes and resultant rebound comes too.
But instead, the Green Party didn’t just come off the boil, it came off the front foot, back peddled and sat down. They lost momentum and they lost headlines, but worst of all, they left a lot of very negative perceptions hanging in the air.
There’s no nice way to say this. They allowed the negative shit coming from msm and pundits to shape their actions, and a consequence of those defensive actions was the wave of bullshit coming from msm was suddenly unopposed and able to shape and possibly set the perceptions of many people.
And just to help it all along, they said ‘sorry’.
Whatever Shaw meant by apologising is irrelevant. He was talking to NZ and many have simply heard it as an apology for giving a platform to Metiria (a “lying Maori bitch” as far as much of the msm and punditry was/is concerned, in case you missed that from their “oh so subtle” coverage).
So now the Green Party’s in trouble.
And it’s in trouble primarily because it listened first and foremost to what media was saying and reacted to media reporting on its own impacts on general perceptions – instead of continuing to simply and diligently stand its ground and say what it had to say.
They’ll be in government. But they’ve ceded all the high ground they occupied, and all the running they had, and so won’t be the presence in government that they really ought to be and that we (NZ in general) really need them to be.
And yes. I want everything I’ve written in this comment to be absolutely and completely wrong.
The Greens went to 12 or 15% when they crapped all over the MOU and went after Labour’s voters because they thought that Labour was tanking. They (like the rest of us) never imagined that Labour was even capable of or contemplating the dramatic upheaval that saw Little resign and Ardern installed as leader. They miscalculated and now they’ve made their bed (as my mother would say) and they must lie in it.
Labour’s voters
This crap again? Labour don’t own any voters.
You must be sad at this result.
Interesting that you think National owns the people who vote for them.
The result will be known on 23rd Sept. Yes, I think it’s a pity if the Greens have lost support. Sadness isn’t the emotion it generates though.
Your right OAB no party ‘owns’ voters. But some (most?) voters do lend political parties their allegiance. And as we’ve seen in the last 2 weeks those bonds can be pretty strong.
Not in the polls.
But all this bickering is based entirely on supposing what actions caused or mitigated which gain or loss, and which voters migrated from party A to party B.
All we know is that Labour is on a roll, National are in gradual decline, NZ1 is levelling and the Greens have taken a big, but recoverable, hit.
But the Greens run a damned good campaign.
Yeah even in the polls McFlock. Look how hard it’s been to shift support off National while key was in charge, poll after poll had them riding high.
With something like a 12 point variation in poll highs and lows this term, 17 points last term.
So a quarter of nat supporters even under key would drift back and forth, even if it was the same individuals each time.
Don’t go there. Greens spoke for the folk Labour have consigned to poverty, and Labour chose Blairism with the enthusiastic support of the media plague rats, instead of following the Corbynite lead.
Labour should have led on this issue, but unfortunately they’re the same old sellouts, chalking up victories on gender issues instead of addressing poverty and injustice.
The polls are not to be trusted – they’re faked to license the media narrative that the failed austerity policies of the last two governments are not to be questioned.
Stuart Munro
Stop being so clear sighted and factual – it’s not what is good to hear and
should only be whispered behind your hands at midnight in a dark place,
while you are wearing funereal black.
So, the polls were to be trusted when they showed the Greens at record highs, but they’re not to be trusted anymore..?
The polls are not faked. We might not like them all the time, they my each have slightly different outcomes because of slightly different methodologies, and this far out they’re certainly not predictive (a lot can happen in 5 weeks), but they’re not faked. Saying that is juvenile and paranoid.
I think the Greens will bounce back. They won’t bounce as high as they did when Labour was low, but I doubt they’ll stay this low. I do disagree with Bill (above) about why they’ve had such a tough time, though. Metiria’s announcement was always a risky strategy – the media were always going to go digging – it’s what they do. It looks like it wasn’t fully thought through. If it hadn’t been rushed, then they would have made sure they talked to people like ex flatmates, sat down and raked through her past with her for other revelations that could be distracting or undermining, and – most importantly – really made a team decision, with everyone committed to it, rather than having some caucus members uncomfortable and aggrieved. If they’d gone through a thorough process before going public, they would have either:
1) decided not to go public with the personal story, or
2) kept control of the story and kept the focus on the issues, knowing that there were no more layers to unpeel and that they could stick it out as a team.
“The polls are not faked”
Oh really. Remember Gower’s poll – 75% landline and 25% online – not because that’s a credible measure of anything, but because it gave him the numbers to back his fatuous story. It didn’t get much attention because RNZ got Metiria’s scalp, not Gower, but Gower’s whole statistical edifice was poppycock. That’s how debased our media are.
You have to use statistical sampling critically to generate anything other than noise – but current pollsters have found that particular results are much more palatable than the vagaries of real sampling. These are easy to generate, much easier than getting truly representative data.
Tell me that Gower or Hosking or Joyce are too rigorous to deliberately use compromised data – I could use a laugh.
We’re talking Colmar Brunton here, Stuart. It’s a regular, reputable poll. One of a number of them that are regularly reported and analysed.
The same kind of polling that YouGov showed to be largely fallacious.
Small samples, selection bias, leading questions – it really isn’t difficult to not get real results.
These fraudulent results can then be used to justify the vigorous deployment of MSM propaganda, which, unless it is debunked will gradually erode real support and create a false consensus around an issue.
The YouGov polls were not a trivial element of Corbyn’s revival of Labour – they showed the pundits to be wrong and even forced the BBC to step away from their biased anti-Corbyn stance.
A reputable poll would need at least 2000 respondents – and pay some attention to age and income and geographical distribution to ensure the result was meaningful.
Colmar Brunton do pay attention to those issues, Stuart, and the question is the same each time (“If an election was held tomorrow…?”). Plus, the sample number reflects the size of NZ’s population. I’m not a statistician (are you?), but I doubt that they’re lying about the margin of error.
I hope and believe that the Greens will bounce back, but that doesn’t make this poll faked or deliberately biased.
The easiest litmus test for fake polls is whether they elide the undecided and won’t say groups to create the false impression that National enjoys support in the 40s. Because of the substantial undecided/won’t say fraction, Gnat support is in the 30s. But that makes them look like what they are – a conservative rump that only survive through intensive media life support. It’s time to pull that plug.
As for Colmar Brunton – polls of 750-1000 aren’t worth much more than horoscopes. YouGov used 40 000 +.
It didn’t help that one of the first things Ardern dis as leader was distance herself from Turei, a few hours after Gower said she should say she wouldn’t have Turei as a minister. Ardern did not need to do that.
That and a couple of other things signalled to me, and probably a few others, that team Ardern would prefer NZ Furst as an ally rather than the GP. If that happens, the NZ left will be set back a couple of decades, along with those on the lowest incomes, and beneficiaries.
It should be clear to left wingers what they should do – vote, and vote to keep the NZ left alive in parliamentary politics.
She absolutely did need to do that Carolyn-nth. Turei’s position was deteriorating by the hour and Ardern needed a bit of space to get Labour back on an even keel.
Meh – sample the Labour Party song
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer,
We’ll keep the red flag flying here.
She flinched.
+1
So, do you really think a new government could appoint someone as a Minister who would still at that time be under active investigation by a government department to assess the extent of fraud? How would you react if a National government did that?
If Turei had thought things through more, she would have worked things out with MSD before going public, and there could have been a settlement in place. She didn’t. And yes, I know she needed the money at the time, but she’s got plenty of cash now and she was running a political campaign, hoping to become Minister of the department that would be investigating her.
Ardern didn’t flinch – she took a tough decision. She also gave Turei the chance to make her own decision and announcement.
Turei and the Greens championed an important cause and the choice to use her own story added authenticity, but it also had risks and negatives attached and you can’t blame people who were in no way involved in the decision to use that strategy for the outcomes of that.
Pretty well every National minister has lied or fraudulently obtained benefits on a vastly larger scale than Metiria.
What’s good for the goose is good for the gander. Bowing to Gower’s narrative was swallowing a massive double standard for the left.
Carolyn and Stuart,
Jacinda did what she had to do if she wants to be PM. Show she had standards and could make tough decisions.
The public has seen that and it has paid dividends. If you want proof ask JK. Ex PMs like Bolger, Clark and Key, all of whom won three elections, know at a very intimate level just what is required to be a successful PM. Making tough decisions on instinct without a lot of endless reflection is one of the essential attributes. I have seen enough of each of them, especially Bolger and Key since I was in the same party, of how they actually make such decisions.
My sense of Ardern both from interacting with her in Parliament and also since (PACDAC) is that she instantly knew Meritia, as the issue unraveled, could not be in Cabinet.
Wayne – you are so utterly corrupt your opinion is worthless.
John Key is the worst Prime Minister New Zealand has ever had – one does not achieve the most expensive housing, the worst homelessness, and the highest suicide rates in the OECD without being the worst government in the OECD.
That’s what you were – for heaven’s sake take some responsibility!
Nope. Showed that she doesn’t have a spine and will kowtow to the RWNJs Dirty Politics.
Nope. IMO, it’s just that she’s more charismatic than Little.
All the rest is just Bandwagon Effect.
She didn’t flinch. Turei pulled the pin from the grenade, held on to it tightly and blew herself up…. Jacinda wisely stepped back a safe distance.
Adern had a chance to show her true colours.
And she did.
Even Key thinks she is a safe pair of hands, for the rich.
And a cynical person would say that that’s exactly the kind of doubt that he wants to sow in our minds… Yes, really, that nice Mr Key – it’s just possible that he’s got his own motivations for his public statements.
Indeed – that is the effect he wanted. Labour played into his paws.
There is more than could be said, which I won’t, if you stop trying to pin the blame for this on Metiria. She was doing her job.
Come on Stuart Munro, you must of worked out by now that red-blooded is a hard right hack for the labour party.
Piss off, adam. If you see the Labour Party as hard right then your judgement is so skewed as to be worthless.
I’m a secondary school teacher and I have a lifetime of volunteering in fair trade groups, unions, social support groups, international charities and environmental groups, women’s groups, public education lobby groups… if that’s your view of hard Right then that says more about you than me.
@ Adam – no he’s not. A lot of Labour supporters have managed not to get too badly burnt by their party’s actions. They are good people and expect the best of their party, as I used to. Snuggling up to decaying sacs of flesh like Gower will damage Labour in the long term however, and do little to alleviate the distress of those impoverished by the failures of neo-liberalism.
So red-blooded and I’ve asked this from you before, where is the socialist economic policy from the labour party?
You know, left wing economic policy.
None, well bugger me – what else is new.
You lot have a coup, go up in the polls and then lord it over the rest of the left.
So let me rephrase my argument, red-blooded is just another authoritarian labour party hack. Who like everyone else in that party struggles to work with others, Astrturfs, and would rather loss an election (the last one does come to mind) rather than share power with a left wing party.
Mind you, in historical context. The liberal party in NZ was very much the same. I’m sure people who were the wet’s in there day, were very much the same.
Aren’t you a bit premature to blame the GP?
My understanding is that trends tend not to show up til at least several weeks after an event. James Shaw made that “not so great together” speech at the relaunch on Sunday 13 Aug. This latest released poll result was conducted from 12-16 Aug,
Trends take more than one poll to show them – that’s what makes them trends. A single poll can certainly show a reaction to a major event or series of events, though. Again, people here were perfectly happy to interpret the poll that put the Greens so high after their conference as a reaction to Metiria’s speech…
I usually dont make much comment on polls. I tend to comment more on the narratives people derive from them – often the MSM tend to make very slanted headlines.
In my comment at 8.04pm above, I was responding to Bill’s comment in which cited some words spoken by James Shaw. As those words were in James Shaw’s speech at the GP relaunch Sunday pm, they were spoken a day and a half into the Colmar Brunton polling period – which was 12-16 August. So I doubt that speech would be the main cause of the poll drop for the GP.
My understanding is that poll watchers say it takes a few weeks for any single event to show in a poll, as well as for a change in trends. But I could be wrong.
I don’t recall ever making a comment about that 15% GP poll (on or offline).
I don’t think I said that you had commented about that 15%poll, CN. I hadn’t checked back, so I just said “people”. For an example, look at Bill’s comment (3.4.2.2). There was a lot of rejoicing on this site about that poll and no talk then about time delays – a direct link was made between the conference speech and the lift in the poll. I just think we have to be consistent.
And, Bill, the media were the ones who delivered that speech of Metiria’s to the wider public. Somehow, that part of things was OK but not the follow-up work..?
The media were always going to dig and look for another angle on the story – that’s what they do. Turei knew this – she’s been a politician long enough to know how it works. Sorry, but while I admired the message, I still think there was some rushed and/or shoddy thinking and a lack of prep with other interested parties (including the Greens’ caucus).
If Shaw’s words are out of kilter with the time line then fine. The fact still remains that the Green Party went up off the back of Metiria launching the welfare policy.
And then msm set to business.
And unlike other examples I can think of, the Greens didn’t (or didn’t manage to) hold their ground against negative msm messaging.
Not really correct Bill.
The media showed their partisanship and bad faith by misrepresenting and mis reporting the Green reaction.
It is obvious now, that blackmail, is going to be the right wing response to anyone, who tries to do anything serious about poverty.
Five weeks for the Greens to figure this out.
Meanwhile, what would a Labour-NZFirst government look like?
(With a little side dish of Greens)
Dunno how “intelligent” you’d have to be, but helping the Greens is a good idea for leftists.
I’d certainly be tempted to vote Green to help them over the line.
As it is, I reckon that this is the low point and they’ll be in Parliament in October.
The important bit from this poll is National down 3%. Might be statistacl error, but when you’re that close to the margin the odds are that it’s something to look at.
It’s amazing how many people can’t bring themselves to vote tactically….but I reckon the Greens will end up with 8% when the dust settles.
This poll taken at the Greens nadir, probably on purpose.
Don’t be daft. There’s been a lot happening in politics in recent weeks and we’re building up to an election – it’s hardly surprising that a poll’s been conducted.
When the poll that showed the Greens so high was published, was that “on purpose”, too? If so, whose purpose?
mmmm call me cynical but it is very much in the interests of the Right to portray a vote for the Greens as a wasted vote. But you could be right.
New Zealand has a Trudeau election.
Indeed. Apart from the timing of the leadership change (Trudeau had a year and a bit as Opposition Leader before the elections) the parallels are striking.
Greens are out for 2017
They have pursued devisive short term campaiging for too long. A spell out of parliement *may* bring them to their senses. I hope so !
Colmar Brunton leans right, a touch, doesn’t it? Need Roy Morgan, where Greens often are overstated, to get wider picture
At this point in the electoral cycle, they tend to overstate National by about 4% in my opinion. They also understate the minor parties. Their Labour value is bounces around a bit.
I think that they have some weird population that they sample from. I’d imagine that it is like getting the Auckland sample exclusively from the North Shore or Epsom.
I’ve lived on the Shore for the past 32 years and they’ve never rung me. 🙁
I think I heard the Colmar Brunton guy say on RNZ this morning that they still don’t ring cellphones. They still just ring landlines but correct for age bands and other factors.
Also the TV1 report on the Colmar Brunton poll said that “undecided votes had fallen by 7%” but they didn’t say from what to what.
Colmar Brunton leans right, a touch, doesn’t it?
Yes, and it has consistently over-estimated the number of Nat voters – at least in comparison to other public polling companies. I think you can safely assume that the more likely percentage of Nat voters at any given time averages around 2% less.
That would mean the difference between Nat. and Lab is currently around 5%.
How about the significant margin the poll overestimated Labour suppirt at the 2014 election?
Their Labour value … bounces around a bit.
Lprent, two hours before you, four comments up the page.
Overstating National ≠ understating Labour.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-greens-plummet-below-five-per-cent-jacinda-effect-keeps-labour-climbing
If Dunne loses, it’s a Labour-NZFirst-Maori Party government.
That’s if Flavell hold Waiariki. If he doesn’t then on the poll tonight 8% will be wasted and redistributed to National, Labour and NZFirst.
Unless Peters chooses National.
A month ago Labour were finished.
If NZ F went in with National, all good for a term.
Unless Peters chooses National 😉
What are you talking about? The mess these guys are creating will be much more difficult to retrieve in three years time. Social issues will worsen. Infrastructure issues will worsen, the list goes on.
Can’t really believe you could be that callous toward the vulnerable in this country that you’d just shrug and say, ‘oh well, next time’.
Exactly the same as the point you made below about the Greens.
Difference being, Labour have figured the voters out.
No they haven’t.
Polling says Labour have figured out voters quite a lot better than any other party campaigning right now.
No, polling says that people are more enthused by the new leader. There’s a difference. And not necessarily a good one either for that matter.
A NZFirst/National coalition won’t last a term. the two are more diametrically opposed than Nats/Labour.
That’s always been a distinct possibility. If anything though, this poll lessens the likelihood of that outcome since Winston won’t have to deal with the Greens.
Hopefully Swordfish will be along soon with the stats. But I seem to recall that the last Colmar-Brunton before the 2014 election slightly overstated National, understated the Greens a bit and had Labour about right?
Colmar Brunton leans right, a touch, doesn’t it?
Yes, and it has consistently over-estimated the number of Nat voters – at least in comparison to other public polling companies. I think you can safely assume that the more likely percentage of Nat voters at any given time averages around 2% less.
That would mean the difference between Nat. and Lab is currently around 5%.
Farrar petulant with “Metiria and Jacinda have killed the Greens between them. Proof girls can do anything! ”
A slimy toad that is peed off is not a pretty thing.
Slimy toad piss at the sewer? 🙂
The Nats will still use that Dirty Politics worm even if they are turfed out of office next month but their war chest will diminish and their ability to poll will also.
He must be shitting himself.
It will probably do the Greens some good to go out of parliament for a term. No better way to really get focussed.
They have been naive in the face of the white, RWNJ, bene-bashing rump of NZ which is a formidable force and very large.
They’ll grow from this.
You actually believe that the Greens do not have a +5% base??
More reliable than this poll, I think.
I think they probably do but I’m saying they might learn more with a term outside parliament than if they scrape in just over the 5%.
Well, if they scrape in I will be surprised. I think they will fly in. This poll is temporary rubbish.
I think they’ll pick up significantly too.
I think they can be both an environment party and a social justice party but they need to think hard about their delivery. In the last month they have screwed up their social justice policy and Labour is getting all the press on the environment. Even the Nats farted about an electric car for the government fleet when the Greens were preoccupied.
The Greens’ “preoccupation” was somewhat engineered by hysterical media.
Fortunately, we have weeks to go. But it strikes me as a funny pattern. Last election the most left-wing party was Te Mana. Slaughtered by the media because they unwisely hooked up with KDC..
This time the Greens are the most left-wing party. History repeating itself?
Greens must play very carefully from now on.
yep. The mainstream media like a centrist Labour-led government if they don’t have a National-led one. They tend to demonise people and parties solidly left.
Agreed.
Did the media make Mana hook up with KDC..? No, they decided to take the money, and people decided their fine words were not to be trusted.
Just as the media told you, darling. You go barely ankle-deep.
So what are you questioning here, sweetie pie?
1) Hone decided to take the money. Tick.
2) Surely if people DID trust him, they’d have elected him? And yet they didn’t… And don’t blame the media – Mana had plenty of money to get their message out, it just didn’t ring true.
Hone is incredibly self-serving. Last time, he took the money and thought he could buy his way back into parliament. This time, he’s hooked up again with the Māori Party, despite supposedly seeing them as sell-outs for going with the Nats. Plus, he’s been telling lies about Willy Jackson (saying he supports people voting for Hone over Kelvin Davis – something Jackson absolutely refutes) and trying to get Labour to gift him a seat.
Sue Bradford got it right when she walked away from Mana.
“Surely if people DID trust him, they’d have elected him? And yet they didn’t”
Actually TTT was pretty close.
Reply to weka,: “pretty close” still isn’t “elected”.
But that is a moronic attitude. A beats B by one vote in an electorate of thousands, and you use that thin pretext to condemn the guy who lost by one vote as utterly useless.
Grow up, simpleton.
I don’t believe the claim is real.
What’s the received wisdom on time between an event and how it shows up in voter patterns? I thought it was a couple of weeks but is it different during an election when interest is higher?
@ weka
In terms of major policy planks, it used to be said that it took two months to be disseminated and assimilated by the majority of punters. But when you have the kind of seismic political changes we have seen these past few weeks, I’m picking its around two weeks before the full impact is felt.
If I’m right, the Greens have bottomed out and should be on the rise again by the end of this week. 🙂
“Teenagers jumping out of police cars just because they can”.
I think Bills lost it.
I thought that too, it was a really weird thing to say.
He started the sentence without knowing how he was going to finish it – scary feeling for anyone but with someone as innately dull and authoritarian as Bill it can’t end well.
Along with Winston, who sounded pretty poor to me on RNZ this morning?
It doesn’t have any to do with policy at the moment though does it? It’s all about personality at the moment, and 1 person’s personality at that. This poll won’t even have captured her savvy, assured handling of the unhinged attack form Julie Bishop which even had Mark Richardson (yes him!) whispering on The Project last night that she looked pretty prime ministerial.
Jesus Steven Joyce is even making an appearance on The Project. All hands on deck for the Nats as the ships lists dangerously.
Some of the Green MPs are doing an AMA on reddit this evening.
Gareth Hughes,
https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/6u8089/ask_us_anything_greens_coleader_james_shaw_and/
With Green’s tanking, NZF will go with Labour. It’s pretty simple. I don’t think the polls are going to move much more than they are at now.
I think National could go a bit lower yet infused, maybe 39 to 42%. Colmar Brunton does tend to overestimate their support. And Ardern could push Labour to 40. I agree though that a Lab/NZF government is rapidly becoming the most likely outcome of this election. I also think the Greens will comfortably clear the 5% threshold but be under 8%.
Maybe… but I don’t think so. I reckon movements will be within +/- 2%. Even though Nationals support has gone down, it’s been pretty solid throughout.
I think Greens will pass 5%, just.
UMR already had National drifting down towards 42 before most of the drama unfolded. Their problem, of course, is a lack of options. Especially if Dunne loses and the Māori Party lose Waiariki.
I think there is quite some time to go yet, and the polls will move. But how much will that movement be manipulated by guess who?
Of all the follies in NZ politics, claiming to understand what Winston Peters will do may be the greatest.
You have to laugh. The three witches; Young, Trevett, and Watkins are all terrified and framing their articles from
Macbeth’sEnglish’s point of view.You seem to have an unhealthy fixation on those three, and have made some rather unpleasant comments about Trevett’s appearance in the past. Is mocking a woman’s appearance okay if you don’t like her?
You’re being a bit sensitive. I do have an unhealthy fixation on them but that is because they are not neutral and I expect better from senior journalists.
Trevett’s profile picture drives me nuts because she has an oily face in it so I call her ‘the oily one’ – it’s just a fact. I also call Steven Joyce ‘cone head’ because he has a cone head – a fact again.
My mockery is not gender specific.
If election held today with only those polled oh dear that would be a shocker for the Greens. But that isn’t the case therefore it is just nothing on top of nil with some zero added in. Double down on EVERYTHING and let’s send the gnats hopping.
Lol, imagine if NZ was run on the basis of what 1,000 people said.
Actually run on the basis of what 61 people in Parliament, plus a few “Journalists” say.
Note the headlines were not. “Greens down in the polls tonight”. They were “Greens out of Parliament”. Which is unlikely, and not true, at this stage.
Labour will shit in . No probs.
Tough luck to all the rightie’s .
But to reinforce the lines I will no longer give my vote to Labour , but to the Greens. Which is a pity because for the first time in 30 odd years I was going to vote Labour, dang it !
But the name of the game is to get rid of National and Labour will need their support partners, so every little drop in the bucket is important.
Agreed Wild Katipo-the Left needs the Greens, indeed the Left has often been the Greens over the last 9 years.
Here’s something for the Greenies and us closet Greenies or anyone else interested in the environment especially Antarctica.
http://www.news.com.au/world/chinas-secret-threat-to-australias-antarctic-claim-report-reveals/news-story/d88ca4389f7d621f5b50d529954de68d
China is getting very aggressive in its acquisitiveness.
It sure is ATM and I’m thinking they pegged out their claim when the Antarctic Treaty comes up for renewal around 2020 I believe? There is evidence ATM to suggest that China is also under reporting (also using its soft aid to pay off officials or provide cheap loans/ aid for projects with strings attached) the fish being caught by its own fishing trawlers only in the South West Pacific, but in the Southern Ocean as well.
Running off my iPad atm, but I’ll find the a link I post here sometime ago about Chinese over fishing/ underreporting of their catches in the South Pacific and how the likes of NZ, Oz, the Yanks and French who the bulk of Maritime Fisheries Patrols in the region are having problems in co-ord some of the maritime patrols with of small nations within the South Pacific .
The Natz are hell bent on the TPPA and its another good reason why we need a change in government.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1708/S00338/mcclay-government-approves-tpp11-mandate.htm
Ardern should gift Wellington Central to James Shaw if the polls stay this tight. It could mean not having to put up with NZF in government. As time goes on and Labour’s vote creeps over 40% (and I think it will), National’s vote will start reducing in turn. Who needs Winston?
Labour need to grow their vote from NZF. Because as the GP recovers they will pick up Labour voters again.
Or, it’s all a nonsense anyway 😉
btw, in 2014 Robertson got nearly 20,000 votes, Shaw got 5,000. I think there are probably other electorates that the GP could do better in. Were you thinking Labour could withdraw Robertson? Hard to imagine them doing that given his seniority, and Labour’s position on standing in every seat (and L/G agreement not to do deals).