Why? Their chances of being in government, let alone any one of them becoming a cabinet minister are shot. It’s looking more and more like the best outcome the left can hope for this election is a Lab/NZF government. We need to make Labour as strong as possible for that eventuality.
Uh, if they get into parliament, they will be needed in government.
Lab/NZF can only get to 61/62 by themselves if the greens aren’t there so they get more seats from the reallocation of the greens votes.
If the Greens are in, they will be needed by Labour to get to a majority. I doubt that the Greens will be in any way magnanimous about Labour trying to form a minority government with NZ first and trying to get the Greens to give them confidence and supply from outside a coalition.
Just noting that the Green Party went to 12 or 15% when Metiria spoke of welfare. Hold that in your mind if you’re bothering to read this comment.
The media and pundits bayed for blood and the Greens then dropped in the polls (Gower’s ‘never seen before poll’ that he felt compelled to conduct – remember that?)
That initial dip is to be expected when negative onslaughts are unleashed off the back of you having basically put a bomb under a comfortable status quo. But you weather them. You keep going. And the reaction to the manufactured negativity comes and resultant rebound comes too.
But instead, the Green Party didn’t just come off the boil, it came off the front foot, back peddled and sat down. They lost momentum and they lost headlines, but worst of all, they left a lot of very negative perceptions hanging in the air.
There’s no nice way to say this. They allowed the negative shit coming from msm and pundits to shape their actions, and a consequence of those defensive actions was the wave of bullshit coming from msm was suddenly unopposed and able to shape and possibly set the perceptions of many people.
And just to help it all along, they said ‘sorry’.
Whatever Shaw meant by apologising is irrelevant. He was talking to NZ and many have simply heard it as an apology for giving a platform to Metiria (a “lying Maori bitch” as far as much of the msm and punditry was/is concerned, in case you missed that from their “oh so subtle” coverage).
So now the Green Party’s in trouble.
And it’s in trouble primarily because it listened first and foremost to what media was saying and reacted to media reporting on its own impacts on general perceptions – instead of continuing to simply and diligently stand its ground and say what it had to say.
They’ll be in government. But they’ve ceded all the high ground they occupied, and all the running they had, and so won’t be the presence in government that they really ought to be and that we (NZ in general) really need them to be.
And yes. I want everything I’ve written in this comment to be absolutely and completely wrong.
The Greens went to 12 or 15% when they crapped all over the MOU and went after Labour’s voters because they thought that Labour was tanking. They (like the rest of us) never imagined that Labour was even capable of or contemplating the dramatic upheaval that saw Little resign and Ardern installed as leader. They miscalculated and now they’ve made their bed (as my mother would say) and they must lie in it.
Your right OAB no party ‘owns’ voters. But some (most?) voters do lend political parties their allegiance. And as we’ve seen in the last 2 weeks those bonds can be pretty strong.
But all this bickering is based entirely on supposing what actions caused or mitigated which gain or loss, and which voters migrated from party A to party B.
All we know is that Labour is on a roll, National are in gradual decline, NZ1 is levelling and the Greens have taken a big, but recoverable, hit.
Don’t go there. Greens spoke for the folk Labour have consigned to poverty, and Labour chose Blairism with the enthusiastic support of the media plague rats, instead of following the Corbynite lead.
Labour should have led on this issue, but unfortunately they’re the same old sellouts, chalking up victories on gender issues instead of addressing poverty and injustice.
The polls are not to be trusted – they’re faked to license the media narrative that the failed austerity policies of the last two governments are not to be questioned.
Stuart Munro
Stop being so clear sighted and factual – it’s not what is good to hear and
should only be whispered behind your hands at midnight in a dark place,
while you are wearing funereal black.
So, the polls were to be trusted when they showed the Greens at record highs, but they’re not to be trusted anymore..?
The polls are not faked. We might not like them all the time, they my each have slightly different outcomes because of slightly different methodologies, and this far out they’re certainly not predictive (a lot can happen in 5 weeks), but they’re not faked. Saying that is juvenile and paranoid.
I think the Greens will bounce back. They won’t bounce as high as they did when Labour was low, but I doubt they’ll stay this low. I do disagree with Bill (above) about why they’ve had such a tough time, though. Metiria’s announcement was always a risky strategy – the media were always going to go digging – it’s what they do. It looks like it wasn’t fully thought through. If it hadn’t been rushed, then they would have made sure they talked to people like ex flatmates, sat down and raked through her past with her for other revelations that could be distracting or undermining, and – most importantly – really made a team decision, with everyone committed to it, rather than having some caucus members uncomfortable and aggrieved. If they’d gone through a thorough process before going public, they would have either:
1) decided not to go public with the personal story, or
2) kept control of the story and kept the focus on the issues, knowing that there were no more layers to unpeel and that they could stick it out as a team.
Oh really. Remember Gower’s poll – 75% landline and 25% online – not because that’s a credible measure of anything, but because it gave him the numbers to back his fatuous story. It didn’t get much attention because RNZ got Metiria’s scalp, not Gower, but Gower’s whole statistical edifice was poppycock. That’s how debased our media are.
You have to use statistical sampling critically to generate anything other than noise – but current pollsters have found that particular results are much more palatable than the vagaries of real sampling. These are easy to generate, much easier than getting truly representative data.
Tell me that Gower or Hosking or Joyce are too rigorous to deliberately use compromised data – I could use a laugh.
The same kind of polling that YouGov showed to be largely fallacious.
Small samples, selection bias, leading questions – it really isn’t difficult to not get real results.
These fraudulent results can then be used to justify the vigorous deployment of MSM propaganda, which, unless it is debunked will gradually erode real support and create a false consensus around an issue.
The YouGov polls were not a trivial element of Corbyn’s revival of Labour – they showed the pundits to be wrong and even forced the BBC to step away from their biased anti-Corbyn stance.
A reputable poll would need at least 2000 respondents – and pay some attention to age and income and geographical distribution to ensure the result was meaningful.
Colmar Brunton do pay attention to those issues, Stuart, and the question is the same each time (“If an election was held tomorrow…?”). Plus, the sample number reflects the size of NZ’s population. I’m not a statistician (are you?), but I doubt that they’re lying about the margin of error.
I hope and believe that the Greens will bounce back, but that doesn’t make this poll faked or deliberately biased.
The easiest litmus test for fake polls is whether they elide the undecided and won’t say groups to create the false impression that National enjoys support in the 40s. Because of the substantial undecided/won’t say fraction, Gnat support is in the 30s. But that makes them look like what they are – a conservative rump that only survive through intensive media life support. It’s time to pull that plug.
As for Colmar Brunton – polls of 750-1000 aren’t worth much more than horoscopes. YouGov used 40 000 +.
It didn’t help that one of the first things Ardern dis as leader was distance herself from Turei, a few hours after Gower said she should say she wouldn’t have Turei as a minister. Ardern did not need to do that.
That and a couple of other things signalled to me, and probably a few others, that team Ardern would prefer NZ Furst as an ally rather than the GP. If that happens, the NZ left will be set back a couple of decades, along with those on the lowest incomes, and beneficiaries.
It should be clear to left wingers what they should do – vote, and vote to keep the NZ left alive in parliamentary politics.
She absolutely did need to do that Carolyn-nth. Turei’s position was deteriorating by the hour and Ardern needed a bit of space to get Labour back on an even keel.
So, do you really think a new government could appoint someone as a Minister who would still at that time be under active investigation by a government department to assess the extent of fraud? How would you react if a National government did that?
If Turei had thought things through more, she would have worked things out with MSD before going public, and there could have been a settlement in place. She didn’t. And yes, I know she needed the money at the time, but she’s got plenty of cash now and she was running a political campaign, hoping to become Minister of the department that would be investigating her.
Ardern didn’t flinch – she took a tough decision. She also gave Turei the chance to make her own decision and announcement.
Turei and the Greens championed an important cause and the choice to use her own story added authenticity, but it also had risks and negatives attached and you can’t blame people who were in no way involved in the decision to use that strategy for the outcomes of that.
Carolyn and Stuart,
Jacinda did what she had to do if she wants to be PM. Show she had standards and could make tough decisions.
The public has seen that and it has paid dividends. If you want proof ask JK. Ex PMs like Bolger, Clark and Key, all of whom won three elections, know at a very intimate level just what is required to be a successful PM. Making tough decisions on instinct without a lot of endless reflection is one of the essential attributes. I have seen enough of each of them, especially Bolger and Key since I was in the same party, of how they actually make such decisions.
My sense of Ardern both from interacting with her in Parliament and also since (PACDAC) is that she instantly knew Meritia, as the issue unraveled, could not be in Cabinet.
Wayne – you are so utterly corrupt your opinion is worthless.
John Key is the worst Prime Minister New Zealand has ever had – one does not achieve the most expensive housing, the worst homelessness, and the highest suicide rates in the OECD without being the worst government in the OECD.
That’s what you were – for heaven’s sake take some responsibility!
And a cynical person would say that that’s exactly the kind of doubt that he wants to sow in our minds… Yes, really, that nice Mr Key – it’s just possible that he’s got his own motivations for his public statements.
Piss off, adam. If you see the Labour Party as hard right then your judgement is so skewed as to be worthless.
I’m a secondary school teacher and I have a lifetime of volunteering in fair trade groups, unions, social support groups, international charities and environmental groups, women’s groups, public education lobby groups… if that’s your view of hard Right then that says more about you than me.
@ Adam – no he’s not. A lot of Labour supporters have managed not to get too badly burnt by their party’s actions. They are good people and expect the best of their party, as I used to. Snuggling up to decaying sacs of flesh like Gower will damage Labour in the long term however, and do little to alleviate the distress of those impoverished by the failures of neo-liberalism.
So red-blooded and I’ve asked this from you before, where is the socialist economic policy from the labour party?
You know, left wing economic policy.
None, well bugger me – what else is new.
You lot have a coup, go up in the polls and then lord it over the rest of the left.
So let me rephrase my argument, red-blooded is just another authoritarian labour party hack. Who like everyone else in that party struggles to work with others, Astrturfs, and would rather loss an election (the last one does come to mind) rather than share power with a left wing party.
Mind you, in historical context. The liberal party in NZ was very much the same. I’m sure people who were the wet’s in there day, were very much the same.
My understanding is that trends tend not to show up til at least several weeks after an event. James Shaw made that “not so great together” speech at the relaunch on Sunday 13 Aug. This latest released poll result was conducted from 12-16 Aug,
Trends take more than one poll to show them – that’s what makes them trends. A single poll can certainly show a reaction to a major event or series of events, though. Again, people here were perfectly happy to interpret the poll that put the Greens so high after their conference as a reaction to Metiria’s speech…
I usually dont make much comment on polls. I tend to comment more on the narratives people derive from them – often the MSM tend to make very slanted headlines.
In my comment at 8.04pm above, I was responding to Bill’s comment in which cited some words spoken by James Shaw. As those words were in James Shaw’s speech at the GP relaunch Sunday pm, they were spoken a day and a half into the Colmar Brunton polling period – which was 12-16 August. So I doubt that speech would be the main cause of the poll drop for the GP.
My understanding is that poll watchers say it takes a few weeks for any single event to show in a poll, as well as for a change in trends. But I could be wrong.
I don’t recall ever making a comment about that 15% GP poll (on or offline).
I don’t think I said that you had commented about that 15%poll, CN. I hadn’t checked back, so I just said “people”. For an example, look at Bill’s comment (3.4.2.2). There was a lot of rejoicing on this site about that poll and no talk then about time delays – a direct link was made between the conference speech and the lift in the poll. I just think we have to be consistent.
And, Bill, the media were the ones who delivered that speech of Metiria’s to the wider public. Somehow, that part of things was OK but not the follow-up work..?
The media were always going to dig and look for another angle on the story – that’s what they do. Turei knew this – she’s been a politician long enough to know how it works. Sorry, but while I admired the message, I still think there was some rushed and/or shoddy thinking and a lack of prep with other interested parties (including the Greens’ caucus).
If Shaw’s words are out of kilter with the time line then fine. The fact still remains that the Green Party went up off the back of Metiria launching the welfare policy.
And then msm set to business.
And unlike other examples I can think of, the Greens didn’t (or didn’t manage to) hold their ground against negative msm messaging.
Dunno how “intelligent” you’d have to be, but helping the Greens is a good idea for leftists.
I’d certainly be tempted to vote Green to help them over the line.
As it is, I reckon that this is the low point and they’ll be in Parliament in October.
The important bit from this poll is National down 3%. Might be statistacl error, but when you’re that close to the margin the odds are that it’s something to look at.
Don’t be daft. There’s been a lot happening in politics in recent weeks and we’re building up to an election – it’s hardly surprising that a poll’s been conducted.
When the poll that showed the Greens so high was published, was that “on purpose”, too? If so, whose purpose?
Indeed. Apart from the timing of the leadership change (Trudeau had a year and a bit as Opposition Leader before the elections) the parallels are striking.
Greens are out for 2017
They have pursued devisive short term campaiging for too long. A spell out of parliement *may* bring them to their senses. I hope so !
At this point in the electoral cycle, they tend to overstate National by about 4% in my opinion. They also understate the minor parties. Their Labour value is bounces around a bit.
I think that they have some weird population that they sample from. I’d imagine that it is like getting the Auckland sample exclusively from the North Shore or Epsom.
I think I heard the Colmar Brunton guy say on RNZ this morning that they still don’t ring cellphones. They still just ring landlines but correct for age bands and other factors.
Also the TV1 report on the Colmar Brunton poll said that “undecided votes had fallen by 7%” but they didn’t say from what to what.
Yes, and it has consistently over-estimated the number of Nat voters – at least in comparison to other public polling companies. I think you can safely assume that the more likely percentage of Nat voters at any given time averages around 2% less.
That would mean the difference between Nat. and Lab is currently around 5%.
What are you talking about? The mess these guys are creating will be much more difficult to retrieve in three years time. Social issues will worsen. Infrastructure issues will worsen, the list goes on.
Can’t really believe you could be that callous toward the vulnerable in this country that you’d just shrug and say, ‘oh well, next time’.
That’s always been a distinct possibility. If anything though, this poll lessens the likelihood of that outcome since Winston won’t have to deal with the Greens.
Hopefully Swordfish will be along soon with the stats. But I seem to recall that the last Colmar-Brunton before the 2014 election slightly overstated National, understated the Greens a bit and had Labour about right?
Yes, and it has consistently over-estimated the number of Nat voters – at least in comparison to other public polling companies. I think you can safely assume that the more likely percentage of Nat voters at any given time averages around 2% less.
That would mean the difference between Nat. and Lab is currently around 5%.
The Nats will still use that Dirty Politics worm even if they are turfed out of office next month but their war chest will diminish and their ability to poll will also.
I think they can be both an environment party and a social justice party but they need to think hard about their delivery. In the last month they have screwed up their social justice policy and Labour is getting all the press on the environment. Even the Nats farted about an electric car for the government fleet when the Greens were preoccupied.
The Greens’ “preoccupation” was somewhat engineered by hysterical media.
Fortunately, we have weeks to go. But it strikes me as a funny pattern. Last election the most left-wing party was Te Mana. Slaughtered by the media because they unwisely hooked up with KDC..
This time the Greens are the most left-wing party. History repeating itself?
Greens must play very carefully from now on.
yep. The mainstream media like a centrist Labour-led government if they don’t have a National-led one. They tend to demonise people and parties solidly left.
So what are you questioning here, sweetie pie?
1) Hone decided to take the money. Tick.
2) Surely if people DID trust him, they’d have elected him? And yet they didn’t… And don’t blame the media – Mana had plenty of money to get their message out, it just didn’t ring true.
Hone is incredibly self-serving. Last time, he took the money and thought he could buy his way back into parliament. This time, he’s hooked up again with the Māori Party, despite supposedly seeing them as sell-outs for going with the Nats. Plus, he’s been telling lies about Willy Jackson (saying he supports people voting for Hone over Kelvin Davis – something Jackson absolutely refutes) and trying to get Labour to gift him a seat.
Sue Bradford got it right when she walked away from Mana.
But that is a moronic attitude. A beats B by one vote in an electorate of thousands, and you use that thin pretext to condemn the guy who lost by one vote as utterly useless.
Grow up, simpleton.
What’s the received wisdom on time between an event and how it shows up in voter patterns? I thought it was a couple of weeks but is it different during an election when interest is higher?
@ weka
In terms of major policy planks, it used to be said that it took two months to be disseminated and assimilated by the majority of punters. But when you have the kind of seismic political changes we have seen these past few weeks, I’m picking its around two weeks before the full impact is felt.
If I’m right, the Greens have bottomed out and should be on the rise again by the end of this week. 🙂
He started the sentence without knowing how he was going to finish it – scary feeling for anyone but with someone as innately dull and authoritarian as Bill it can’t end well.
It doesn’t have any to do with policy at the moment though does it? It’s all about personality at the moment, and 1 person’s personality at that. This poll won’t even have captured her savvy, assured handling of the unhinged attack form Julie Bishop which even had Mark Richardson (yes him!) whispering on The Project last night that she looked pretty prime ministerial.
Some of the Green MPs are doing an AMA on reddit this evening.
Gareth Hughes,
Thanks for the question – yes, of course we weren’t happy about the poll tonight but also not surprised we dropped. As James has said the last few weeks we haven’t been that great and we haven’t been that together. We care deeply about our issues and we are going to work hard to turn this around. We’ve reset our campaign, refocused our priorities to clean rivers, ending poverty and tackling climate change and we’re going to give this campaign everything we have. We’re going to be telling people with so many important issues facing our country we need Greens in Parliament and Greens in the next progressive Government.
Kia ora koutou – I’m sure everyone would like to know how you plan build the party back after today’s poll. I appreciate it’s only one poll but to be so low for the first time in so long has to ring some alarm bells.
How will you rebound and what’s the plan for the future of the leadership, in particular?
________
[–]GarethMPGareth Hughes MP – Verified 5 points 16 minutes ago
Thanks for the question – I answered it above in the thread and yes, it is one poll but we are taking it seriously. I can give you one example. In previous elections we have only directly contacted a small number of voters, we have some pretty ambitious contact targets that we are on track to achieve with most of the campaign gone. We have re-jigged our leadership team and have Marama Davison leading on ending poverty, Julie Anne-Genter on tackling climate change and Eugenie Sage on cleaning up our rivers. We also have record membership, donations and volunteers so know our fundamentals are strong. We are in the campaign of our lifetimes. On leadership, we will elect a new female co-leader July next year (that’s the benefit of a co-leadership model) and I think James is doing a fantastic job representing our values and vision in public. Cheers
I think National could go a bit lower yet infused, maybe 39 to 42%. Colmar Brunton does tend to overestimate their support. And Ardern could push Labour to 40. I agree though that a Lab/NZF government is rapidly becoming the most likely outcome of this election. I also think the Greens will comfortably clear the 5% threshold but be under 8%.
UMR already had National drifting down towards 42 before most of the drama unfolded. Their problem, of course, is a lack of options. Especially if Dunne loses and the Māori Party lose Waiariki.
You seem to have an unhealthy fixation on those three, and have made some rather unpleasant comments about Trevett’s appearance in the past. Is mocking a woman’s appearance okay if you don’t like her?
You’re being a bit sensitive. I do have an unhealthy fixation on them but that is because they are not neutral and I expect better from senior journalists.
Trevett’s profile picture drives me nuts because she has an oily face in it so I call her ‘the oily one’ – it’s just a fact. I also call Steven Joyce ‘cone head’ because he has a cone head – a fact again.
If election held today with only those polled oh dear that would be a shocker for the Greens. But that isn’t the case therefore it is just nothing on top of nil with some zero added in. Double down on EVERYTHING and let’s send the gnats hopping.
But to reinforce the lines I will no longer give my vote to Labour , but to the Greens. Which is a pity because for the first time in 30 odd years I was going to vote Labour, dang it !
But the name of the game is to get rid of National and Labour will need their support partners, so every little drop in the bucket is important.
It sure is ATM and I’m thinking they pegged out their claim when the Antarctic Treaty comes up for renewal around 2020 I believe? There is evidence ATM to suggest that China is also under reporting (also using its soft aid to pay off officials or provide cheap loans/ aid for projects with strings attached) the fish being caught by its own fishing trawlers only in the South West Pacific, but in the Southern Ocean as well.
Running off my iPad atm, but I’ll find the a link I post here sometime ago about Chinese over fishing/ underreporting of their catches in the South Pacific and how the likes of NZ, Oz, the Yanks and French who the bulk of Maritime Fisheries Patrols in the region are having problems in co-ord some of the maritime patrols with of small nations within the South Pacific .
Ardern should gift Wellington Central to James Shaw if the polls stay this tight. It could mean not having to put up with NZF in government. As time goes on and Labour’s vote creeps over 40% (and I think it will), National’s vote will start reducing in turn. Who needs Winston?
Labour need to grow their vote from NZF. Because as the GP recovers they will pick up Labour voters again.
Or, it’s all a nonsense anyway 😉
btw, in 2014 Robertson got nearly 20,000 votes, Shaw got 5,000. I think there are probably other electorates that the GP could do better in. Were you thinking Labour could withdraw Robertson? Hard to imagine them doing that given his seniority, and Labour’s position on standing in every seat (and L/G agreement not to do deals).
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The Treasury has published a paper today on the global productivity slowdown and how it is playing out in New Zealand: The productivity slowdown: implications for the Treasury’s forecasts and projections. The Treasury Paper examines recent trends in productivity and the potential drivers of the slowdown. Productivity for the whole economy ...
Winston Peters’ comments about former Australian foreign minister look set to be an ongoing headache for both him and Luxon. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for subscribers features co-hosts and , along with regular guests on Gaza and ...
These puppet strings don't pull themselvesYou're thinking thoughts from someone elseHow much time do you think you have?Are you prepared for what comes next?The debating chamber can be a trying place for an opposition MP. What with the person in charge, the speaker, typically being an MP from the governing ...
The land around Lyme Regis, where Meryl Streep once stood, in a hood, on the Cobb, is falling into the sea.MerylThe land around Lyme Regis, around the Cobb that made it rich, has always been falling slowly but surely into the sea. Read more ...
Buzz from the Beehive Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters was bound to win headlines when he set out his thinking about AUKUS in his speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. The headlines became bigger when – during an interview on RNZ’s Morning Report today – he criticised ...
The Post reports on how the government is refusing to release its advice on its corrupt Muldoonist fast-track law, instead using the "soon to be publicly available" refusal ground to hide it until after select committee submissions on the bill have closed. Fast-track Minister Chris Bishop's excuse? “It's not ...
As pressure on it grows, the livestock industry’s approach to the transition to Net Zero is increasingly being compared to that of fossil fuel interests. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / Getty ImagesTL;DR: Here’s the top five news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above ...
The New Zealand Herald reports – Stats NZ has offered a voluntary redundancy scheme to all of its workers as a way to give staff some control over their “future” amidst widespread job losses in the public sector. In an update to staff this morning, seen by the Herald, Statistics New Zealand ...
On Werewolf/Scoop, I usually do two long form political columns a week. From now on, there will be an extra column each week about music and movies. But first, some late-breaking political events:The rise in unemployment numbers for the March quarter was bigger than expected – and especially sharp ...
David Farrar writes – The Herald reports: TVNZ says it is dealing with about 50 formal complaints over its coverage of the latest 1News-Verian political poll, with some viewers – as well as the Prime Minister and a former senior Labour MP – critical of the tone of the 6pm report. ...
Muriel Newman writes – When Meridian Energy was seeking resource consents for a West Coast hydro dam proposal in 2010, local Maori “strenuously” objected, claiming their mana was inextricably linked to ‘their’ river and could be damaged. After receiving a financial payment from the company, however, the Ngai Tahu ...
Alwyn Poole writes – “An SEP,’ he said, ‘is something that we can’t see, or don’t see, or our brain doesn’t let us see, because we think that it’s somebody else’s problem. That’s what SEP means. Somebody Else’s Problem. The brain just edits it out, it’s like a ...
Our trust in our political institutions is fast eroding, according to a Maxim Institute discussion paper, Shaky Foundations: Why our democracy needs trust. The paper – released today – raises concerns about declining trust in New Zealand’s political institutions and democratic processes, and the role that the overuse of Parliamentary urgency ...
This article was prepared for publication yesterday. More ministerial announcements have been posted on the government’s official website since it was written. We will report on these later today …. Buzz from the BeehiveThere we were, thinking the environment is in trouble, when along came Jones. Shane Jones. ...
New Zealand now has the fourth most depressed construction sector in the world behind China, Qatar and Hong Kong. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 8:46am on Thursday, May 2:The Lead: ...
Hi,I am just going to state something very obvious: American police are fucking crazy.That was a photo gracing the New York Times this morning, showing New York City police “entering Columbia University last night after receiving a request from the school.”Apparently in America, protesting the deaths of tens of thousands ...
Winston Peters’ much anticipated foreign policy speech last night was a work of two halves. Much of it was a standard “boilerplate” Foreign Ministry overview of the state of the world. There was some hardening up of rhetoric with talk of “benign” becoming “malign” and old truths giving way to ...
Graham Adams assesses the fallout of the Cass Review — The press release last Thursday from the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women and girls didn’t make the mainstream news in New Zealand but it really should have. The startling title of Reem Alsalem’s statement — “Implementation of ‘Cass ...
This open-for-business, under-new-management cliché-pockmarked government of Christopher Luxon is not the thing of beauty he imagines it to be. It is not the powerful expression of the will of the people that he asserts it to be. It is not a soaring eagle, it is a malodorous vulture. This newest poll should make ...
The latest labour market statistics, showing a rise in unemployment. There are now 134,000 unemployed - 14,000 more than when the National government took office. Which is I guess what happens when the Reserve Bank causes a recession in an effort to Keep Wages Low. The previous government saw a ...
Three opinion polls have been released in the last two days, all showing that the new government is failing to hold their popular support. The usual honeymoon experienced during the first year of a first term government is entirely absent. The political mood is still gloomy and discontented, mainly due ...
National's Finance Minister once met a poor person.A scornful interview with National's finance guru who knows next to nothing about economics or people.There might have been something a bit familiar if that was the headline I’d gone with today. It would of course have been in tribute to the article ...
Rob MacCulloch writes – Throughout the pandemic, the new Vice-Chancellor-of-Otago-University-on-$629,000 per annum-Can-you-believe-it-and-Former-Finance-Minister Grant Robertson repeated the mantra over and over that he saved “lives and livelihoods”.As we update how this claim is faring over the course of time, the facts are increasingly speaking differently. NZ ...
Chris Trotter writes – IT’S A COMMONPLACE of political speeches, especially those delivered in acknowledgement of electoral victory: “We’ll govern for all New Zealanders.” On the face of it, the pledge is a strange one. Why would any political leader govern in ways that advantaged the huge ...
Bryce Edwards writes – The list of former National Party Ministers being given plum and important roles got longer this week with the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett as the chair of Pharmac. The Christopher Luxon-led Government has now made key appointments to Bill ...
TL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 10:06am on Wednesday, May 1:The Lead: Business confidence fell across the board in April, falling in some areas to levels last seen during the lockdowns because of a collapse in ...
Over the past 36 hours, Christopher Luxon has been dong his best to portray the centre-right’s plummeting poll numbers as a mark of virtue. Allegedly, the negative verdicts are the result of hard economic times, and of a government bravely set out on a perilous rescue mission from which not ...
Auckland Transport have started rolling out new HOP card readers around the network and over the next three months, all of them on buses, at train stations and ferry wharves will be replaced. The change itself is not that remarkable, with the new readers looking similar to what is already ...
Completed reads for April: The Difference Engine, by William Gibson and Bruce Sterling Carnival of Saints, by George Herman The Snow Spider, by Jenny Nimmo Emlyn’s Moon, by Jenny Nimmo The Chestnut Soldier, by Jenny Nimmo Death Comes As the End, by Agatha Christie Lord of the Flies, by ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Have a story to share about St Paul’s, but today just picturesPopular novels written at this desk by a young man who managed to bootstrap himself out of father’s imprisonment and his own young life in a workhouse Read more ...
The list of former National Party Ministers being given plum and important roles got longer this week with the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett as the chair of Pharmac. The Christopher Luxon-led Government has now made key appointments to Bill English, Simon Bridges, Steven Joyce, Roger Sowry, ...
Newsroom has a story today about National's (fortunately failed) effort to disestablish the newly-created Inspector-General of Defence. The creation of this agency was the key recommendation of the Inquiry into Operation Burnham, and a vital means of restoring credibility and social licence to an agency which had been caught lying ...
Holding On To The Present:The moment a political movement arises that attacks the whole idea of social progress, and announces its intention to wind back the hands of History’s clock, then democracy, along with its unwritten rules, is in mortal danger.IT’S A COMMONPLACE of political speeches, especially those delivered in ...
Stuck In The Middle With You:As Christopher Luxon feels the hot breath of Act’s and NZ First’s extremists on the back of his neck and, as he reckons with the damage their policies are already inflicting upon a country he’s described as “fragile”, is there not some merit in reaching out ...
The unpopular coalition government is currently rushing to repeal section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act. The clause is Oranga Tamariki's Treaty clause, and was inserted after its systematic stealing of Māori children became a public scandal and resulted in physical resistance to further abductions. The clause created clear obligations ...
Buzz from the Beehive The government’s official website – which Point of Order monitors daily – not for the first time has nothing much to say today about political happenings that are grabbing media headlines. It makes no mention of the latest 1News-Verian poll, for example. This shows National down ...
It Takes A Train To Cry:Surely, there is nothing lonelier in all this world than the long wail of a distant steam locomotive on a cold Winter’s night.AS A CHILD, I would lie awake in my grandfather’s house and listen to the traffic. The big wooden house was only a ...
Packing A Punch: The election of the present government, including in its ranks politicians dedicated to reasserting the rights of the legislature in shaping and determining the future of Māori and Pakeha in New Zealand, should have alerted the judiciary – including its anomalous appendage, the Waitangi Tribunal – that its ...
Dead Woman Walking: New Zealand’s media industry had been moving steadily towards disaster for all the years Melissa Lee had been National’s media and communications policy spokesperson, and yet, when the crisis finally broke, on her watch, she had nothing intelligent to offer. Christopher Luxon is a patient man - but he’s not ...
Chris Trotter writes – New Zealand politics is remarkably easy-going: dangerously so, one might even say. With the notable exception of John Key’s flat ruling-out of the NZ First Party in 2008, all parties capable of clearing MMP’s five-percent threshold, or winning one or more electorate seats, tend ...
Ministers must front up about which projects it will push through under its Fast Track Approvals legislation, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
Te Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...
Six tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...
New Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...
The OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...
The Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...
The coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...
The Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...
The Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...
The new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...
Whānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...
Racing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...
Assalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...
Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...
Hundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...
Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...
Distinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
Mai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...
Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
This episode of A View From Afar was recorded LIVE on May 6, 2024 (NZST) which is Sunday evening, May 5, 2024 at 8:30pm (USEST). In an analytical essay titled ‘A moment of friction’ political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan wrote how we are living within a decisive moment ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alison Taylor, Assistant Professor, Bond University Metro Goldwyn Mayer Pictures At the crux of the critical response to Luca Guadagnino’s new movie Challengers is one word: “sexy”. The film charts a love triangle between three up-and-coming tennis players: Tashi (Zendaya), ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jenny Stewart, Professor of Public Policy, ADFA Canberra, UNSW Sydney For years, First Nations people have been telling governments they want to be listened to. In particular, they want more ownership of the programs and services that are supposed to help them. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Moore, Senior Research Associate, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne Why do trees have bark? Julien, age 6, Melbourne. This is a great question, Julien. We are so familiar with bark on trees, that most of us ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Nasser, Senior Lecturer in Physiotherapy, University of Technology Sydney PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock The anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) is an important ligament in the knee. It runs from the thigh bone (femur) to the shin bone (tibia) and helps stabilise ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne I covered the May 2 United Kingdom local government elections for The Poll Bludger. The Blackpool South parliamentary byelection was also held, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deanna Grant-Smith, Professor of Management, University of the Sunshine Coast The federal government has announced a “Commonwealth Prac Payment” to support selected groups of students doing mandatory work placements. Those who are studying to be a teacher, nurse, midwife or social ...
We round up everything coming to streaming services this week, including Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney+, Apple TV+, ThreeNow, Neon and TVNZ+. If you love a dark comedy: Bodkin (Netflix, May 9)An English podcaster, an Irish podcaster and American podcaster walk into a pub and…make a TV show? ...
By Eleisha Foon, RNZ Pacific senior journalist A Pacific regionalism academic has called out New Zealand’s Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters for withholding information from the public on AUKUS and says the security deal “raises serious questions for the Pacific region”. Auckland University of Technology academic Dr Marco de Jong ...
How worried should we be about the cloud? This is an excerpt from our weekly environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. I currently have a few thousand unread emails languishing in my inbox, mostly old marketing newsletters and piles of unread science journal press releases. I have a similar number ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nuurrianti Jalli, Assistant Professor of Communication Studies College of Arts and Sciences Department of Languages, Literature, and Communication Studies, Northern State University Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Southeast Asian governments not only have to deal with the virus but also with the false ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Murakami Wood, Professor of Critical Surveillance and Securities Studies, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa The skyline of Riyadh, the capital and largest city of the Kingdom of Saudia Arabia.(Shutterstock) There is a long history of planned city building by both governments ...
The LIVE Recording of A View from Afar podcast will begin today at 12:45pm May 6, 2024 (NZST) which is Sunday evening, 8:30pm (USEST). In an analytical essay titled ‘A moment of friction’ political scientist Dr Paul Buchanan wrote how we are living within a decisive moment of ...
The Boil Up’s Lucinda Bennett considers the oyster – from freshness to pearls to the joy of shucking your own. This is an excerpt from our weekly food newsletter, The Boil Up. In Carmen Maria Machado’s short story ‘Eight Bites’, a woman begins her last supper before bariatric surgery with “a cavalcade ...
Asia Pacific Report A group of 65 Auckland University academics have written an open letter to vice-chancellor Dawn Freshwater criticising the institution’s stance over students protesting in solidarity with Palestine. They have called on her administration to “support” the students who were denied permission to establish an “overnight encampment” by ...
The Student Volunteer Army is on the march, generating approximately 1.6 million hours of volunteering from roughly 35,000 secondary school students in just five years. For Rebekah Brown, the pathway to volunteering started with her singing coach. With a passion for the arts, the suggestion to volunteer at Acting Antics, ...
Keeping up with online communication can be exhausting, so Fran Barclay enlisted the help of Meta’s new ‘intelligent assistant’ to respond to all her messages. Could her mates tell the difference? For centuries, technology has ruled the ways in which we communicate. From the dawn of written language, to the ...
Jamie Arbuckle, a councillor who has become an member of parliament, says he has settled into having two roles so comfortably he's going to keep both pay cheques. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of Wollongong Fifty years ago, Australian feminist Anne Summers denounced “the ideology of sexism” governing over so many women’s lives. Unfortunately, sexism is as lethal today as it ...
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Anything interesting happening?
Isn’t there a poll tonight?
Colmar Brunton:
Nats 44
Lab 37
Green 4 (4.3%)
NZF 10
TOP 2
MP 2
Preferred PM Jacinda 30 Bill 30
Greens will bounce back-some intelligent Labour people should also vote tactically if 5% is in doubt.
National continuing their downward trend
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-greens-plummet-below-five-per-cent-jacinda-effect-keeps-labour-climbing
The poll was conducted between August 12 and 16 with 1007 eligible voters.
Didnt the greens take a wee tumble as well?
Intelligent Labour, TOP and New Zealand First people should just vote for the Greens anyway, as they have better policies and better candidates.
+111
+1000
I don’t want to vote Green this time because they’ve shown themselves to be tactically useless. But with 5% looking in doubt I think I may have to.
Why? Their chances of being in government, let alone any one of them becoming a cabinet minister are shot. It’s looking more and more like the best outcome the left can hope for this election is a Lab/NZF government. We need to make Labour as strong as possible for that eventuality.
Uh, if they get into parliament, they will be needed in government.
Lab/NZF can only get to 61/62 by themselves if the greens aren’t there so they get more seats from the reallocation of the greens votes.
If the Greens are in, they will be needed by Labour to get to a majority. I doubt that the Greens will be in any way magnanimous about Labour trying to form a minority government with NZ first and trying to get the Greens to give them confidence and supply from outside a coalition.
Intelligent people will vote Labour.
Not if they actually care about New Zealand’s future.
National lite needs a large helping of Greens, to keep them honest.
Just noting that the Green Party went to 12 or 15% when Metiria spoke of welfare. Hold that in your mind if you’re bothering to read this comment.
The media and pundits bayed for blood and the Greens then dropped in the polls (Gower’s ‘never seen before poll’ that he felt compelled to conduct – remember that?)
That initial dip is to be expected when negative onslaughts are unleashed off the back of you having basically put a bomb under a comfortable status quo. But you weather them. You keep going. And the reaction to the manufactured negativity comes and resultant rebound comes too.
But instead, the Green Party didn’t just come off the boil, it came off the front foot, back peddled and sat down. They lost momentum and they lost headlines, but worst of all, they left a lot of very negative perceptions hanging in the air.
There’s no nice way to say this. They allowed the negative shit coming from msm and pundits to shape their actions, and a consequence of those defensive actions was the wave of bullshit coming from msm was suddenly unopposed and able to shape and possibly set the perceptions of many people.
And just to help it all along, they said ‘sorry’.
Whatever Shaw meant by apologising is irrelevant. He was talking to NZ and many have simply heard it as an apology for giving a platform to Metiria (a “lying Maori bitch” as far as much of the msm and punditry was/is concerned, in case you missed that from their “oh so subtle” coverage).
So now the Green Party’s in trouble.
And it’s in trouble primarily because it listened first and foremost to what media was saying and reacted to media reporting on its own impacts on general perceptions – instead of continuing to simply and diligently stand its ground and say what it had to say.
They’ll be in government. But they’ve ceded all the high ground they occupied, and all the running they had, and so won’t be the presence in government that they really ought to be and that we (NZ in general) really need them to be.
And yes. I want everything I’ve written in this comment to be absolutely and completely wrong.
The Greens went to 12 or 15% when they crapped all over the MOU and went after Labour’s voters because they thought that Labour was tanking. They (like the rest of us) never imagined that Labour was even capable of or contemplating the dramatic upheaval that saw Little resign and Ardern installed as leader. They miscalculated and now they’ve made their bed (as my mother would say) and they must lie in it.
Labour’s voters
This crap again? Labour don’t own any voters.
You must be sad at this result.
Interesting that you think National owns the people who vote for them.
The result will be known on 23rd Sept. Yes, I think it’s a pity if the Greens have lost support. Sadness isn’t the emotion it generates though.
Your right OAB no party ‘owns’ voters. But some (most?) voters do lend political parties their allegiance. And as we’ve seen in the last 2 weeks those bonds can be pretty strong.
Not in the polls.
But all this bickering is based entirely on supposing what actions caused or mitigated which gain or loss, and which voters migrated from party A to party B.
All we know is that Labour is on a roll, National are in gradual decline, NZ1 is levelling and the Greens have taken a big, but recoverable, hit.
But the Greens run a damned good campaign.
Yeah even in the polls McFlock. Look how hard it’s been to shift support off National while key was in charge, poll after poll had them riding high.
With something like a 12 point variation in poll highs and lows this term, 17 points last term.
So a quarter of nat supporters even under key would drift back and forth, even if it was the same individuals each time.
Don’t go there. Greens spoke for the folk Labour have consigned to poverty, and Labour chose Blairism with the enthusiastic support of the media plague rats, instead of following the Corbynite lead.
Labour should have led on this issue, but unfortunately they’re the same old sellouts, chalking up victories on gender issues instead of addressing poverty and injustice.
The polls are not to be trusted – they’re faked to license the media narrative that the failed austerity policies of the last two governments are not to be questioned.
Stuart Munro
Stop being so clear sighted and factual – it’s not what is good to hear and
should only be whispered behind your hands at midnight in a dark place,
while you are wearing funereal black.
So, the polls were to be trusted when they showed the Greens at record highs, but they’re not to be trusted anymore..?
The polls are not faked. We might not like them all the time, they my each have slightly different outcomes because of slightly different methodologies, and this far out they’re certainly not predictive (a lot can happen in 5 weeks), but they’re not faked. Saying that is juvenile and paranoid.
I think the Greens will bounce back. They won’t bounce as high as they did when Labour was low, but I doubt they’ll stay this low. I do disagree with Bill (above) about why they’ve had such a tough time, though. Metiria’s announcement was always a risky strategy – the media were always going to go digging – it’s what they do. It looks like it wasn’t fully thought through. If it hadn’t been rushed, then they would have made sure they talked to people like ex flatmates, sat down and raked through her past with her for other revelations that could be distracting or undermining, and – most importantly – really made a team decision, with everyone committed to it, rather than having some caucus members uncomfortable and aggrieved. If they’d gone through a thorough process before going public, they would have either:
1) decided not to go public with the personal story, or
2) kept control of the story and kept the focus on the issues, knowing that there were no more layers to unpeel and that they could stick it out as a team.
“The polls are not faked”
Oh really. Remember Gower’s poll – 75% landline and 25% online – not because that’s a credible measure of anything, but because it gave him the numbers to back his fatuous story. It didn’t get much attention because RNZ got Metiria’s scalp, not Gower, but Gower’s whole statistical edifice was poppycock. That’s how debased our media are.
You have to use statistical sampling critically to generate anything other than noise – but current pollsters have found that particular results are much more palatable than the vagaries of real sampling. These are easy to generate, much easier than getting truly representative data.
Tell me that Gower or Hosking or Joyce are too rigorous to deliberately use compromised data – I could use a laugh.
We’re talking Colmar Brunton here, Stuart. It’s a regular, reputable poll. One of a number of them that are regularly reported and analysed.
The same kind of polling that YouGov showed to be largely fallacious.
Small samples, selection bias, leading questions – it really isn’t difficult to not get real results.
These fraudulent results can then be used to justify the vigorous deployment of MSM propaganda, which, unless it is debunked will gradually erode real support and create a false consensus around an issue.
The YouGov polls were not a trivial element of Corbyn’s revival of Labour – they showed the pundits to be wrong and even forced the BBC to step away from their biased anti-Corbyn stance.
A reputable poll would need at least 2000 respondents – and pay some attention to age and income and geographical distribution to ensure the result was meaningful.
Colmar Brunton do pay attention to those issues, Stuart, and the question is the same each time (“If an election was held tomorrow…?”). Plus, the sample number reflects the size of NZ’s population. I’m not a statistician (are you?), but I doubt that they’re lying about the margin of error.
I hope and believe that the Greens will bounce back, but that doesn’t make this poll faked or deliberately biased.
The easiest litmus test for fake polls is whether they elide the undecided and won’t say groups to create the false impression that National enjoys support in the 40s. Because of the substantial undecided/won’t say fraction, Gnat support is in the 30s. But that makes them look like what they are – a conservative rump that only survive through intensive media life support. It’s time to pull that plug.
As for Colmar Brunton – polls of 750-1000 aren’t worth much more than horoscopes. YouGov used 40 000 +.
It didn’t help that one of the first things Ardern dis as leader was distance herself from Turei, a few hours after Gower said she should say she wouldn’t have Turei as a minister. Ardern did not need to do that.
That and a couple of other things signalled to me, and probably a few others, that team Ardern would prefer NZ Furst as an ally rather than the GP. If that happens, the NZ left will be set back a couple of decades, along with those on the lowest incomes, and beneficiaries.
It should be clear to left wingers what they should do – vote, and vote to keep the NZ left alive in parliamentary politics.
She absolutely did need to do that Carolyn-nth. Turei’s position was deteriorating by the hour and Ardern needed a bit of space to get Labour back on an even keel.
Meh – sample the Labour Party song
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer,
We’ll keep the red flag flying here.
She flinched.
+1
So, do you really think a new government could appoint someone as a Minister who would still at that time be under active investigation by a government department to assess the extent of fraud? How would you react if a National government did that?
If Turei had thought things through more, she would have worked things out with MSD before going public, and there could have been a settlement in place. She didn’t. And yes, I know she needed the money at the time, but she’s got plenty of cash now and she was running a political campaign, hoping to become Minister of the department that would be investigating her.
Ardern didn’t flinch – she took a tough decision. She also gave Turei the chance to make her own decision and announcement.
Turei and the Greens championed an important cause and the choice to use her own story added authenticity, but it also had risks and negatives attached and you can’t blame people who were in no way involved in the decision to use that strategy for the outcomes of that.
Pretty well every National minister has lied or fraudulently obtained benefits on a vastly larger scale than Metiria.
What’s good for the goose is good for the gander. Bowing to Gower’s narrative was swallowing a massive double standard for the left.
Carolyn and Stuart,
Jacinda did what she had to do if she wants to be PM. Show she had standards and could make tough decisions.
The public has seen that and it has paid dividends. If you want proof ask JK. Ex PMs like Bolger, Clark and Key, all of whom won three elections, know at a very intimate level just what is required to be a successful PM. Making tough decisions on instinct without a lot of endless reflection is one of the essential attributes. I have seen enough of each of them, especially Bolger and Key since I was in the same party, of how they actually make such decisions.
My sense of Ardern both from interacting with her in Parliament and also since (PACDAC) is that she instantly knew Meritia, as the issue unraveled, could not be in Cabinet.
Wayne – you are so utterly corrupt your opinion is worthless.
John Key is the worst Prime Minister New Zealand has ever had – one does not achieve the most expensive housing, the worst homelessness, and the highest suicide rates in the OECD without being the worst government in the OECD.
That’s what you were – for heaven’s sake take some responsibility!
Nope. Showed that she doesn’t have a spine and will kowtow to the RWNJs Dirty Politics.
Nope. IMO, it’s just that she’s more charismatic than Little.
All the rest is just Bandwagon Effect.
She didn’t flinch. Turei pulled the pin from the grenade, held on to it tightly and blew herself up…. Jacinda wisely stepped back a safe distance.
Adern had a chance to show her true colours.
And she did.
Even Key thinks she is a safe pair of hands, for the rich.
And a cynical person would say that that’s exactly the kind of doubt that he wants to sow in our minds… Yes, really, that nice Mr Key – it’s just possible that he’s got his own motivations for his public statements.
Indeed – that is the effect he wanted. Labour played into his paws.
There is more than could be said, which I won’t, if you stop trying to pin the blame for this on Metiria. She was doing her job.
Come on Stuart Munro, you must of worked out by now that red-blooded is a hard right hack for the labour party.
Piss off, adam. If you see the Labour Party as hard right then your judgement is so skewed as to be worthless.
I’m a secondary school teacher and I have a lifetime of volunteering in fair trade groups, unions, social support groups, international charities and environmental groups, women’s groups, public education lobby groups… if that’s your view of hard Right then that says more about you than me.
@ Adam – no he’s not. A lot of Labour supporters have managed not to get too badly burnt by their party’s actions. They are good people and expect the best of their party, as I used to. Snuggling up to decaying sacs of flesh like Gower will damage Labour in the long term however, and do little to alleviate the distress of those impoverished by the failures of neo-liberalism.
So red-blooded and I’ve asked this from you before, where is the socialist economic policy from the labour party?
You know, left wing economic policy.
None, well bugger me – what else is new.
You lot have a coup, go up in the polls and then lord it over the rest of the left.
So let me rephrase my argument, red-blooded is just another authoritarian labour party hack. Who like everyone else in that party struggles to work with others, Astrturfs, and would rather loss an election (the last one does come to mind) rather than share power with a left wing party.
Mind you, in historical context. The liberal party in NZ was very much the same. I’m sure people who were the wet’s in there day, were very much the same.
Aren’t you a bit premature to blame the GP?
My understanding is that trends tend not to show up til at least several weeks after an event. James Shaw made that “not so great together” speech at the relaunch on Sunday 13 Aug. This latest released poll result was conducted from 12-16 Aug,
Trends take more than one poll to show them – that’s what makes them trends. A single poll can certainly show a reaction to a major event or series of events, though. Again, people here were perfectly happy to interpret the poll that put the Greens so high after their conference as a reaction to Metiria’s speech…
I usually dont make much comment on polls. I tend to comment more on the narratives people derive from them – often the MSM tend to make very slanted headlines.
In my comment at 8.04pm above, I was responding to Bill’s comment in which cited some words spoken by James Shaw. As those words were in James Shaw’s speech at the GP relaunch Sunday pm, they were spoken a day and a half into the Colmar Brunton polling period – which was 12-16 August. So I doubt that speech would be the main cause of the poll drop for the GP.
My understanding is that poll watchers say it takes a few weeks for any single event to show in a poll, as well as for a change in trends. But I could be wrong.
I don’t recall ever making a comment about that 15% GP poll (on or offline).
I don’t think I said that you had commented about that 15%poll, CN. I hadn’t checked back, so I just said “people”. For an example, look at Bill’s comment (3.4.2.2). There was a lot of rejoicing on this site about that poll and no talk then about time delays – a direct link was made between the conference speech and the lift in the poll. I just think we have to be consistent.
And, Bill, the media were the ones who delivered that speech of Metiria’s to the wider public. Somehow, that part of things was OK but not the follow-up work..?
The media were always going to dig and look for another angle on the story – that’s what they do. Turei knew this – she’s been a politician long enough to know how it works. Sorry, but while I admired the message, I still think there was some rushed and/or shoddy thinking and a lack of prep with other interested parties (including the Greens’ caucus).
If Shaw’s words are out of kilter with the time line then fine. The fact still remains that the Green Party went up off the back of Metiria launching the welfare policy.
And then msm set to business.
And unlike other examples I can think of, the Greens didn’t (or didn’t manage to) hold their ground against negative msm messaging.
Not really correct Bill.
The media showed their partisanship and bad faith by misrepresenting and mis reporting the Green reaction.
It is obvious now, that blackmail, is going to be the right wing response to anyone, who tries to do anything serious about poverty.
Five weeks for the Greens to figure this out.
Meanwhile, what would a Labour-NZFirst government look like?
(With a little side dish of Greens)
Dunno how “intelligent” you’d have to be, but helping the Greens is a good idea for leftists.
I’d certainly be tempted to vote Green to help them over the line.
As it is, I reckon that this is the low point and they’ll be in Parliament in October.
The important bit from this poll is National down 3%. Might be statistacl error, but when you’re that close to the margin the odds are that it’s something to look at.
It’s amazing how many people can’t bring themselves to vote tactically….but I reckon the Greens will end up with 8% when the dust settles.
This poll taken at the Greens nadir, probably on purpose.
Don’t be daft. There’s been a lot happening in politics in recent weeks and we’re building up to an election – it’s hardly surprising that a poll’s been conducted.
When the poll that showed the Greens so high was published, was that “on purpose”, too? If so, whose purpose?
mmmm call me cynical but it is very much in the interests of the Right to portray a vote for the Greens as a wasted vote. But you could be right.
New Zealand has a Trudeau election.
Indeed. Apart from the timing of the leadership change (Trudeau had a year and a bit as Opposition Leader before the elections) the parallels are striking.
Greens are out for 2017
They have pursued devisive short term campaiging for too long. A spell out of parliement *may* bring them to their senses. I hope so !
Colmar Brunton leans right, a touch, doesn’t it? Need Roy Morgan, where Greens often are overstated, to get wider picture
At this point in the electoral cycle, they tend to overstate National by about 4% in my opinion. They also understate the minor parties. Their Labour value is bounces around a bit.
I think that they have some weird population that they sample from. I’d imagine that it is like getting the Auckland sample exclusively from the North Shore or Epsom.
I’ve lived on the Shore for the past 32 years and they’ve never rung me. 🙁
I think I heard the Colmar Brunton guy say on RNZ this morning that they still don’t ring cellphones. They still just ring landlines but correct for age bands and other factors.
Also the TV1 report on the Colmar Brunton poll said that “undecided votes had fallen by 7%” but they didn’t say from what to what.
Colmar Brunton leans right, a touch, doesn’t it?
Yes, and it has consistently over-estimated the number of Nat voters – at least in comparison to other public polling companies. I think you can safely assume that the more likely percentage of Nat voters at any given time averages around 2% less.
That would mean the difference between Nat. and Lab is currently around 5%.
How about the significant margin the poll overestimated Labour suppirt at the 2014 election?
Their Labour value … bounces around a bit.
Lprent, two hours before you, four comments up the page.
Overstating National ≠ understating Labour.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-greens-plummet-below-five-per-cent-jacinda-effect-keeps-labour-climbing
If Dunne loses, it’s a Labour-NZFirst-Maori Party government.
That’s if Flavell hold Waiariki. If he doesn’t then on the poll tonight 8% will be wasted and redistributed to National, Labour and NZFirst.
Unless Peters chooses National.
A month ago Labour were finished.
If NZ F went in with National, all good for a term.
Unless Peters chooses National 😉
What are you talking about? The mess these guys are creating will be much more difficult to retrieve in three years time. Social issues will worsen. Infrastructure issues will worsen, the list goes on.
Can’t really believe you could be that callous toward the vulnerable in this country that you’d just shrug and say, ‘oh well, next time’.
Exactly the same as the point you made below about the Greens.
Difference being, Labour have figured the voters out.
No they haven’t.
Polling says Labour have figured out voters quite a lot better than any other party campaigning right now.
No, polling says that people are more enthused by the new leader. There’s a difference. And not necessarily a good one either for that matter.
A NZFirst/National coalition won’t last a term. the two are more diametrically opposed than Nats/Labour.
That’s always been a distinct possibility. If anything though, this poll lessens the likelihood of that outcome since Winston won’t have to deal with the Greens.
Hopefully Swordfish will be along soon with the stats. But I seem to recall that the last Colmar-Brunton before the 2014 election slightly overstated National, understated the Greens a bit and had Labour about right?
Colmar Brunton leans right, a touch, doesn’t it?
Yes, and it has consistently over-estimated the number of Nat voters – at least in comparison to other public polling companies. I think you can safely assume that the more likely percentage of Nat voters at any given time averages around 2% less.
That would mean the difference between Nat. and Lab is currently around 5%.
Farrar petulant with “Metiria and Jacinda have killed the Greens between them. Proof girls can do anything! ”
A slimy toad that is peed off is not a pretty thing.
Slimy toad piss at the sewer? 🙂
The Nats will still use that Dirty Politics worm even if they are turfed out of office next month but their war chest will diminish and their ability to poll will also.
He must be shitting himself.
It will probably do the Greens some good to go out of parliament for a term. No better way to really get focussed.
They have been naive in the face of the white, RWNJ, bene-bashing rump of NZ which is a formidable force and very large.
They’ll grow from this.
You actually believe that the Greens do not have a +5% base??
More reliable than this poll, I think.
I think they probably do but I’m saying they might learn more with a term outside parliament than if they scrape in just over the 5%.
Well, if they scrape in I will be surprised. I think they will fly in. This poll is temporary rubbish.
I think they’ll pick up significantly too.
I think they can be both an environment party and a social justice party but they need to think hard about their delivery. In the last month they have screwed up their social justice policy and Labour is getting all the press on the environment. Even the Nats farted about an electric car for the government fleet when the Greens were preoccupied.
The Greens’ “preoccupation” was somewhat engineered by hysterical media.
Fortunately, we have weeks to go. But it strikes me as a funny pattern. Last election the most left-wing party was Te Mana. Slaughtered by the media because they unwisely hooked up with KDC..
This time the Greens are the most left-wing party. History repeating itself?
Greens must play very carefully from now on.
yep. The mainstream media like a centrist Labour-led government if they don’t have a National-led one. They tend to demonise people and parties solidly left.
Agreed.
Did the media make Mana hook up with KDC..? No, they decided to take the money, and people decided their fine words were not to be trusted.
Just as the media told you, darling. You go barely ankle-deep.
So what are you questioning here, sweetie pie?
1) Hone decided to take the money. Tick.
2) Surely if people DID trust him, they’d have elected him? And yet they didn’t… And don’t blame the media – Mana had plenty of money to get their message out, it just didn’t ring true.
Hone is incredibly self-serving. Last time, he took the money and thought he could buy his way back into parliament. This time, he’s hooked up again with the Māori Party, despite supposedly seeing them as sell-outs for going with the Nats. Plus, he’s been telling lies about Willy Jackson (saying he supports people voting for Hone over Kelvin Davis – something Jackson absolutely refutes) and trying to get Labour to gift him a seat.
Sue Bradford got it right when she walked away from Mana.
“Surely if people DID trust him, they’d have elected him? And yet they didn’t”
Actually TTT was pretty close.
Reply to weka,: “pretty close” still isn’t “elected”.
But that is a moronic attitude. A beats B by one vote in an electorate of thousands, and you use that thin pretext to condemn the guy who lost by one vote as utterly useless.
Grow up, simpleton.
I don’t believe the claim is real.
What’s the received wisdom on time between an event and how it shows up in voter patterns? I thought it was a couple of weeks but is it different during an election when interest is higher?
@ weka
In terms of major policy planks, it used to be said that it took two months to be disseminated and assimilated by the majority of punters. But when you have the kind of seismic political changes we have seen these past few weeks, I’m picking its around two weeks before the full impact is felt.
If I’m right, the Greens have bottomed out and should be on the rise again by the end of this week. 🙂
“Teenagers jumping out of police cars just because they can”.
I think Bills lost it.
I thought that too, it was a really weird thing to say.
He started the sentence without knowing how he was going to finish it – scary feeling for anyone but with someone as innately dull and authoritarian as Bill it can’t end well.
Along with Winston, who sounded pretty poor to me on RNZ this morning?
It doesn’t have any to do with policy at the moment though does it? It’s all about personality at the moment, and 1 person’s personality at that. This poll won’t even have captured her savvy, assured handling of the unhinged attack form Julie Bishop which even had Mark Richardson (yes him!) whispering on The Project last night that she looked pretty prime ministerial.
Jesus Steven Joyce is even making an appearance on The Project. All hands on deck for the Nats as the ships lists dangerously.
Some of the Green MPs are doing an AMA on reddit this evening.
Gareth Hughes,
https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/6u8089/ask_us_anything_greens_coleader_james_shaw_and/
With Green’s tanking, NZF will go with Labour. It’s pretty simple. I don’t think the polls are going to move much more than they are at now.
I think National could go a bit lower yet infused, maybe 39 to 42%. Colmar Brunton does tend to overestimate their support. And Ardern could push Labour to 40. I agree though that a Lab/NZF government is rapidly becoming the most likely outcome of this election. I also think the Greens will comfortably clear the 5% threshold but be under 8%.
Maybe… but I don’t think so. I reckon movements will be within +/- 2%. Even though Nationals support has gone down, it’s been pretty solid throughout.
I think Greens will pass 5%, just.
UMR already had National drifting down towards 42 before most of the drama unfolded. Their problem, of course, is a lack of options. Especially if Dunne loses and the Māori Party lose Waiariki.
I think there is quite some time to go yet, and the polls will move. But how much will that movement be manipulated by guess who?
Of all the follies in NZ politics, claiming to understand what Winston Peters will do may be the greatest.
You have to laugh. The three witches; Young, Trevett, and Watkins are all terrified and framing their articles from
Macbeth’sEnglish’s point of view.You seem to have an unhealthy fixation on those three, and have made some rather unpleasant comments about Trevett’s appearance in the past. Is mocking a woman’s appearance okay if you don’t like her?
You’re being a bit sensitive. I do have an unhealthy fixation on them but that is because they are not neutral and I expect better from senior journalists.
Trevett’s profile picture drives me nuts because she has an oily face in it so I call her ‘the oily one’ – it’s just a fact. I also call Steven Joyce ‘cone head’ because he has a cone head – a fact again.
My mockery is not gender specific.
If election held today with only those polled oh dear that would be a shocker for the Greens. But that isn’t the case therefore it is just nothing on top of nil with some zero added in. Double down on EVERYTHING and let’s send the gnats hopping.
Lol, imagine if NZ was run on the basis of what 1,000 people said.
Actually run on the basis of what 61 people in Parliament, plus a few “Journalists” say.
Note the headlines were not. “Greens down in the polls tonight”. They were “Greens out of Parliament”. Which is unlikely, and not true, at this stage.
Labour will shit in . No probs.
Tough luck to all the rightie’s .
But to reinforce the lines I will no longer give my vote to Labour , but to the Greens. Which is a pity because for the first time in 30 odd years I was going to vote Labour, dang it !
But the name of the game is to get rid of National and Labour will need their support partners, so every little drop in the bucket is important.
Agreed Wild Katipo-the Left needs the Greens, indeed the Left has often been the Greens over the last 9 years.
Here’s something for the Greenies and us closet Greenies or anyone else interested in the environment especially Antarctica.
http://www.news.com.au/world/chinas-secret-threat-to-australias-antarctic-claim-report-reveals/news-story/d88ca4389f7d621f5b50d529954de68d
China is getting very aggressive in its acquisitiveness.
It sure is ATM and I’m thinking they pegged out their claim when the Antarctic Treaty comes up for renewal around 2020 I believe? There is evidence ATM to suggest that China is also under reporting (also using its soft aid to pay off officials or provide cheap loans/ aid for projects with strings attached) the fish being caught by its own fishing trawlers only in the South West Pacific, but in the Southern Ocean as well.
Running off my iPad atm, but I’ll find the a link I post here sometime ago about Chinese over fishing/ underreporting of their catches in the South Pacific and how the likes of NZ, Oz, the Yanks and French who the bulk of Maritime Fisheries Patrols in the region are having problems in co-ord some of the maritime patrols with of small nations within the South Pacific .
The Natz are hell bent on the TPPA and its another good reason why we need a change in government.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA1708/S00338/mcclay-government-approves-tpp11-mandate.htm
Ardern should gift Wellington Central to James Shaw if the polls stay this tight. It could mean not having to put up with NZF in government. As time goes on and Labour’s vote creeps over 40% (and I think it will), National’s vote will start reducing in turn. Who needs Winston?
Labour need to grow their vote from NZF. Because as the GP recovers they will pick up Labour voters again.
Or, it’s all a nonsense anyway 😉
btw, in 2014 Robertson got nearly 20,000 votes, Shaw got 5,000. I think there are probably other electorates that the GP could do better in. Were you thinking Labour could withdraw Robertson? Hard to imagine them doing that given his seniority, and Labour’s position on standing in every seat (and L/G agreement not to do deals).