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notices and features - Date published:
5:30 pm, October 18th, 2023 - 39 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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There’s absolutely no arguing that Labour did very poorly in the recent election. Comparing the preliminary results of the General Elections in 2017, 2020, and 2023, Labour lost 26 (vs. GE-2020) or 12 (vs. GE-2017) Electorate Seats.
However, there seems to be growing misconception that there has been a ‘big swing’ to the Right.
Comparing the preliminary results of the past three General Elections, the changes to the Left and Right blocs were quite minimal.
*121 seats total
Once the Special Votes have been counted and confirmed we will be able to compare the final results, but so far, the GE-2023 result is quite similar to GE-2017 with GE-2020 a Covid-19 ‘anomaly’.
Why has Winston got the hate for labour?
All I've heard is hom say he was lied to,
Did labour promise working with him in 2020 then Welch on the deal
It would be sweet justice if after the specials come in in the left's favour, Winston Peters once again realises what side his bread is buttered on.
You would need a swing of 9 seats before that would matter. A one or two seat swing is quite likely. Nine seats? Can you really see it? It would require Labour, the Greens and TPM getting all the special votes by my back of envelope calculation. Not just a majority but all of them
No. One or two seats could do it.
It would require too large a swing in the party vote. Assuming it requires a 0.8% drop per seat, a 3.2% drop in the party vote would be needed to push NZ 1st to below the 5% threshold.
Policy-wise, NZF is more aligned with National than with Labour. However, in terms of party dynamics I think that NZF could gain more by doing some kind of deal with Labour – it would be akin donating a vital organ to save the recipient from a certain (political) death and a rather painful wait for the next opportunity. Of course, this would only be possible if the numbers stack up right [pun intended] and if National cannot cobble together a ragtag team.
Does he really? I doubt it and I think that most of it is manufactured (by all media).
No, any ‘promise’ would have been moot because NZF didn’t make it back into Parliament in 2020.
Not if it was about a cuppa tea deal some where,
Fifty or so years ago the National was more "social democratic" than it is today. So if NZ 1st leans toward the outlook of the fifties and sixties they would probably have more in common with Labour.
3 things that Labour said prevented forming a coalition or even working with Winston.His anti Maori stance and his antivax conspiracy theory support and his support for protesters against the lockdown.Peters Picking the scabs of discontent of those wounded by the public health order.So no chance of any repeat.
You can also tell there has been no big swing to the right because the right are all behind closed doors freaking out about how to form a government and in the meantime the government before the election continues to be the government after the election. A Labour government.
Fairly sure Luxon and co have no idea what they are doing.
Fairly sure Luxon and co have no idea what they are doing.
I wonder if that's ever crossed his mind as being a problem.
National has scored nil Specials since 1999. Greens have scored the most in same elections except 2020
True that
I prefer to stick to stuff we know rather than speculate on the specials in the latest GE. Although I could show off my political nous and pre-claim bragging rights for being right Yeah, nah.
I think that it would need a 1.5% to 2% swing in the party vote from the specials to put Labour in a position, with NZ 1st's support, to form a government. Possible, but unlikely; and even if it were to happen, Winston would still probably go with National.
thank-you so much for this. The whole comparing to 2020 has been driving me nuts.
Any chance you would put this up as a post?
You’re welcome.
A Post would require a little more than just a table, e.g., a (short) narrative. I’m a little swamped with work and personal stuff, but I’ll see what I can do. In the meantime, you or any other Author are more than welcome to use the table for a Post of their own, as the stats are in the public domain
cheers.
where did you find the prelim results for 2020 and 2017?
Google
https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2017/preliminary-results-for-the-2017-general-election/
https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2020/preliminary-results-for-the-2020-general-election/
ta.
In short, this election is eerily similar to 2017 which was absolutely not victory for the right…not sure what Chris Hipkins was doing conceding on the night.
Because he would need NZF, right? And they'd ruled each other out.
And maybe, it's an utterly poisoned chalice due to international factors, which could result in a one-term NACT govt? 🤞🤞
Watching Newhub this evening with the arrival of Winston Peters at Wellington Airport. I don't really rate WP very much, but I do wish he had have told all the TV (and probably RNZ) breathless reporters to 'F#@k Off'. It would have been magic – I reckon.
I expect that ignoring the media with their 37 questions is next best thing.
He could’ve said:
I agree with Damien O'Conner.
Nah. Silence spoke volumes. Compare and contrast all the MPs arriving over the last couple of days, all on politician mode, auto pilot, all babbling to reporters as if their words mattered. They looked weak, Peters did not. He was in charge.
As a piece of political theatre it was superb. As a message to Luxon and Seymour it was clear: "I do my thing, and you won't change that."
Hipkins could be forgiven for sitting back and smiling: "He's Luxon's problem now."
Ha!..exactly…a loose canon rolling around the Nact ship decks primed and ready to go boom………and the Nactanic is still tied to the dock……….
Yeah…
Winston Peters is a dark card dealt to all those who wants political power. It would be interesting how Luxon or Seymour navigate around him and his whiskies. Depending on the outcome, of course.
Winston in coalition was the last time we had competent ordinary government.
And that's in no small part because he knows how to operate Parliamentary power.
T he biggest concentration camp in the world is being bombed flat .Israel is doing this with all the worlds eyes upon it and doesnt care cause its supported by the west every single western democracy hasnt uttered one word in condemnation in fact STILL preaches about ' International Law ' and the ' Rules based order ' The rules of war ' !!!!!WTF !!! Israel is carrying out genocide on the Palestinians in broad daylight and where is the concern ???
On The Standard its Luxon Luxon Luxon Luxon Luxon chippie luxon luxon seymore peters luxon luxon luxon hipkins luxon ad neausium
Hamas must have known that butchering innocent people was going to provoke this reaction, the people of Palestine should deliver the hamas leaders do the boarder,
Fat chance. The leaders of Hamas are 200km's away in Qatar tucked up with their families in air-conditioned luxury living large with wealth and privilege ordinary Gazans can only dream about.
Oh, the same as it ever was.
The Hamas group in governance of Gaza began a war with Israel.
It's only a concentration group because groups that seek to kill Israeli civilians (raids) are based there.
They only had to practice peaceful co-existence to change this.
Like just shrugging their shoulders and saying "Yeah, just take as much of our land as you like ".
If Hamas wanted a two state peace they would have signed the Oslo Accord.
The PA were offered near all of the West Bank and East Jerusalem by Labour in 2000. They said na, let's intifada. So Israel went back to the guys who began settlement in 1977, Likud.
I've heard it reported twice lately that hamas' stated aim is to wipe Isreal out, ! No peace with them , that doesn't make me a fan of Isreals actions past present or future.