Daily review 18/10/2023

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, October 18th, 2023 - 39 comments
Categories: Daily review - Tags:

Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

39 comments on “Daily review 18/10/2023 ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Incognito 1
    18 October 2023 at 5:53 pm

    There’s absolutely no arguing that Labour did very poorly in the recent election. Comparing the preliminary results of the General Elections in 2017, 2020, and 2023, Labour lost 26 (vs. GE-2020) or 12 (vs. GE-2017) Electorate Seats.

    However, there seems to be growing misconception that there has been a ‘big swing’ to the Right.

    Comparing the preliminary results of the past three General Elections, the changes to the Left and Right blocs were quite minimal.

    % Party Votes 2017 2020 2023
    LAB+GP+TPM 42.8 57.7 40.2
    NAT+ACT 46.5 34.8 48.0
    NAT+ACT+NZF 54.0 37.5 54.5
    Total Seats 2017 2020 2023*
    LAB+GP+TPM 52 75 52
    NAT+ACT 59 45 61
    NAT+ACT+NZF 68 45 69

    *121 seats total

    Once the Special Votes have been counted and confirmed we will be able to compare the final results, but so far, the GE-2023 result is quite similar to GE-2017 with GE-2020 a Covid-19 ‘anomaly’.

    • bwaghorn 1.1
      18 October 2023 at 7:01 pm

      Why has Winston got the hate for labour?

      All I've heard is hom say he was lied to,

      Did labour promise working with him in 2020 then Welch on the deal

      • Muttonbird 1.1.1
        18 October 2023 at 7:09 pm

        It would be sweet justice if after the specials come in in the left's favour, Winston Peters once again realises what side his bread is buttered on.

        • alwyn 1.1.1.1
          18 October 2023 at 7:58 pm

          You would need a swing of 9 seats before that would matter. A one or two seat swing is quite likely. Nine seats? Can you really see it? It would require Labour, the Greens and TPM getting all the special votes by my back of envelope calculation. Not just a majority but all of them

          • Muttonbird 1.1.1.1.1
            18 October 2023 at 10:10 pm

            No. One or two seats could do it.

          • mikesh 1.1.1.1.2
            19 October 2023 at 9:38 am

            It would require too large a swing in the party vote. Assuming it requires a 0.8% drop per seat, a 3.2% drop in the party vote would be needed to push NZ 1st to below the 5% threshold.

        • Incognito 1.1.1.2
          18 October 2023 at 9:02 pm

          Policy-wise, NZF is more aligned with National than with Labour. However, in terms of party dynamics I think that NZF could gain more by doing some kind of deal with Labour – it would be akin donating a vital organ to save the recipient from a certain (political) death and a rather painful wait for the next opportunity. Of course, this would only be possible if the numbers stack up right [pun intended] and if National cannot cobble together a ragtag team.

      • Incognito 1.1.2
        18 October 2023 at 8:53 pm

        Why has Winston got the hate for labour?

        Does he really? I doubt it and I think that most of it is manufactured (by all media).

        Did labour promise working with him in 2020 then Welch on the deal

        No, any ‘promise’ would have been moot because NZF didn’t make it back into Parliament in 2020.

        • bwaghorn 1.1.2.1
          19 October 2023 at 6:26 am

          Not if it was about a cuppa tea deal some where,

        • mikesh 1.1.2.2
          19 October 2023 at 9:45 am

          Fifty or so years ago the National was more "social democratic" than it is today. So if NZ 1st leans toward the outlook of the fifties and sixties they would probably have more in common with Labour.

      • Tricledrown 1.1.3
        18 October 2023 at 9:05 pm

        3 things that Labour said prevented forming a coalition or even working with Winston.His anti Maori stance and his antivax conspiracy theory support and his support for protesters against the lockdown.Peters Picking the scabs of discontent of those wounded by the public health order.So no chance of any repeat.

    • Muttonbird 1.2
      18 October 2023 at 7:04 pm

      You can also tell there has been no big swing to the right because the right are all behind closed doors freaking out about how to form a government and in the meantime the government before the election continues to be the government after the election. A Labour government.

      Fairly sure Luxon and co have no idea what they are doing.

      • Roy Cartland 1.2.1
        18 October 2023 at 7:14 pm

        Fairly sure Luxon and co have no idea what they are doing.

        I wonder if that's ever crossed his mind as being a problem.

    • ianmac 1.3
      18 October 2023 at 8:06 pm

      National has scored nil Specials since 1999. Greens have scored the most in same elections except 2020

      • Incognito 1.3.1
        18 October 2023 at 9:12 pm

        True that smiley

        I prefer to stick to stuff we know rather than speculate on the specials in the latest GE. Although I could show off my political nous and pre-claim bragging rights for being right cheeky Yeah, nah.

      • mikesh 1.3.2
        19 October 2023 at 9:51 am

        I think that it would need a 1.5% to 2% swing in the party vote from the specials to put Labour in a position, with NZ 1st's support, to form a government. Possible, but unlikely; and even if it were to happen, Winston would still probably go with National.

    • weka 1.4
      18 October 2023 at 8:34 pm

      thank-you so much for this. The whole comparing to 2020 has been driving me nuts.

      Any chance you would put this up as a post?

  2. Muttonbird 2
    18 October 2023 at 7:11 pm

    In short, this election is eerily similar to 2017 which was absolutely not victory for the right…not sure what Chris Hipkins was doing conceding on the night.

    • Roy Cartland 2.1
      18 October 2023 at 7:21 pm

      Because he would need NZF, right? And they'd ruled each other out.

      And maybe, it's an utterly poisoned chalice due to international factors, which could result in a one-term NACT govt? 🤞🤞

  3. Jilly Bee 3
    18 October 2023 at 7:50 pm

    Watching Newhub this evening with the arrival of Winston Peters at Wellington Airport. I don't really rate WP very much, but I do wish he had have told all the TV (and probably RNZ) breathless reporters to 'F#@k Off'. It would have been magic – I reckon.

    • ianmac 3.1
      18 October 2023 at 8:02 pm

      I expect that ignoring the media with their 37 questions is next best thing.

    • Anne 3.2
      18 October 2023 at 8:06 pm

      He could’ve said:

      I agree with Damien O'Conner.

    • observer 3.3
      18 October 2023 at 8:08 pm

      Nah. Silence spoke volumes. Compare and contrast all the MPs arriving over the last couple of days, all on politician mode, auto pilot, all babbling to reporters as if their words mattered. They looked weak, Peters did not. He was in charge.

      As a piece of political theatre it was superb. As a message to Luxon and Seymour it was clear: "I do my thing, and you won't change that."

      Hipkins could be forgiven for sitting back and smiling: "He's Luxon's problem now."

      • Kat 3.3.1
        18 October 2023 at 8:47 pm

        Ha!..exactly…a loose canon rolling around the Nact ship decks primed and ready to go boom………and the Nactanic is still tied to the dock……….

      • Rolling-on-Gravel 3.3.2
        18 October 2023 at 9:19 pm

        Yeah…

        Winston Peters is a dark card dealt to all those who wants political power. It would be interesting how Luxon or Seymour navigate around him and his whiskies. Depending on the outcome, of course.

        • Ad 3.3.2.1
          18 October 2023 at 10:42 pm

          Winston in coalition was the last time we had competent ordinary government.

          And that's in no small part because he knows how to operate Parliamentary power.

  4. weston 4
    18 October 2023 at 11:19 pm

    T he biggest concentration camp in the world is being bombed flat .Israel is doing this with all the worlds eyes upon it and doesnt care cause its supported by the west every single western democracy hasnt uttered one word in condemnation in fact STILL preaches about ' International Law ' and the ' Rules based order ' The rules of war ' !!!!!WTF !!! Israel is carrying out genocide on the Palestinians in broad daylight and where is the concern ???

    On The Standard its Luxon Luxon Luxon Luxon Luxon chippie luxon luxon seymore peters luxon luxon luxon hipkins luxon ad neausium

    • bwaghorn 4.1
      19 October 2023 at 6:32 am

      Hamas must have known that butchering innocent people was going to provoke this reaction, the people of Palestine should deliver the hamas leaders do the boarder,

      • joe90 4.1.1
        19 October 2023 at 7:39 am

        , the people of Palestine should deliver the hamas leaders

        Fat chance. The leaders of Hamas are 200km's away in Qatar tucked up with their families in air-conditioned luxury living large with wealth and privilege ordinary Gazans can only dream about.

    • SPC 4.2
      19 October 2023 at 9:02 am

      The Hamas group in governance of Gaza began a war with Israel.

      It's only a concentration group because groups that seek to kill Israeli civilians (raids) are based there.

      They only had to practice peaceful co-existence to change this.

      • Adrian 4.2.1
        19 October 2023 at 9:24 am

        Like just shrugging their shoulders and saying "Yeah, just take as much of our land as you like ".

        • SPC 4.2.1.1
          19 October 2023 at 9:37 am

          If Hamas wanted a two state peace they would have signed the Oslo Accord.

          The PA were offered near all of the West Bank and East Jerusalem by Labour in 2000. They said na, let's intifada. So Israel went back to the guys who began settlement in 1977, Likud.

        • bwaghorn 4.2.1.2
          19 October 2023 at 12:11 pm

          I've heard it reported twice lately that hamas' stated aim is to wipe Isreal out, ! No peace with them , that doesn't make me a fan of Isreals actions past present or future.