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Daily review 20/10/2021

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, October 20th, 2021 - 14 comments
Categories: Daily review - Tags:

Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

14 comments on “Daily review 20/10/2021 ”

  1. Dennis Frank 1

    My confidence in the govt's handling of the pandemic just hit the floor. Problem seems to be in the public service (not Labour): Michael Morrah on 3 News just now told us that the govt has abandoned contact tracing of mystery cases. Incredible!

    He interviewed profs Baker & Plank who both disagreed with the switch & explained why it was a dangerous move. So Bloomfield's credibility is on the line for the first time. Expect him to be targeted with some tough questioning tomorrow…

    • I Feel Love 1.1

      I'll wait & see for more confirmation, my confidence in Morrah hit the floor years ago.

    • Macro 1.2

      They don't contract trace "mystery" cases which are more than 14 days old and haven't done so for some time. One of the answers given on the daily briefing several days ago. I would think that is what Morrah is referring to. Misinformation being spread by so call journalists.

      • Dennis Frank 1.2.1

        Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield says with the number of unlinked cases continuing to grow, the important thing now is not to try and trace where the link is to the outbreak…

        Epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker says that is a real concern and without that deeper level of contact tracing, New Zealand risks losing control of the virus. "I suspect this is one of the most important parts of contact tracing and it's not a part we'd want to lose," he says. "Otherwise you will lose control of the outbreak."

        Professor Michael Plank, from the University of Canterbury's Department of Maths and Statistics, is also worried about the sudden shift in contact tracing focus. "There's a danger that if contact tracing doesn't perform effectively, the rate of case growth, which is already going up, could accelerate further and that things could spiral out of control," he says.

        https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/10/coronavirus-michael-baker-concerned-sidelining-investigation-of-mystery-case-infections-risks-new-zealand-losing-control-of-outbreak.html

        So do we go with the experts, or the Health Dept??

        • nordy 1.2.1.1

          Have you not worked out that all experts don't (and do not have to) agree…that is the nature of opinions.

          We are used to that being the case with economic commentators, it is about time we understood that in relation to 'public health' commentators.

          Also, AB is a public health expert as well as being DG of Health.

          • Dennis Frank 1.2.1.1.1

            But the experts have all been onside with govt containment of the pandemic until now, haven't they? So rather than the diversity of opinion you suggest, it has been a monolithic consensus.

            • McFlock 1.2.1.1.1.1

              Yes and no.

              I'm sure Baker is welcome to contact-trace hundreds of cases a day (which we're going to get) himself. But at some point the reality might be that if contact tracing hasn't stopped us getting to hundreds of cases a day, we need to prioritise more effective efforts.

    • SPC 1.3

      It simply indicates a move away from elimination (in Auckland at least) and a focus of resources on slowing the rate of spread.

      • Dennis Frank 1.3.1

        So if the switch happened when the govt admitted it had abandoned elimination, I wonder why they chose not to inform the public that they had switched the system off. Isn't honesty the best policy? Isn't govt transparency the official principle that guides ethical conduct of govt official?

        Or do you believe failure to practise what they preach is normal for our public service and/or Labour, so nothing unusual has happened?

        • SPC 1.3.1.1

          I doubt the switch happened then – they just hoped Level 3 would have got a better result than it has (and if not they get sucked into the real-politic of a higher rate of spread resulting in a new focus on a faster vaccination drive).

          It's sad as 2021 Level 1 elimination era will be better than the vaaxed up 2022.And I would have wanted a better transition than this – but fortunately there will be better treatments coming along to save our health system.

    • Jilly Bee 1.4

      'Michael Morrah on 3 News just now told us that the govt has abandoned contact tracing of mystery cases.' I have not taken much if any notice of what Michael Morrah's reckons for a while now as none of them tend to bear any fruit. I think I heard on Checkpoint this evening that the contract tracing team are near break point and are close to burn out due to their workload. Just maybe they've been given a bit of slack to recharge their batteries. That's just my reckon and I may be well off the mark.

      • SPC 1.4.1

        AB's deputy said they had capacity to continue with contact tracing up to 180 (but this included seconding people from outside Auckland).

        It may be simply be a re-focus of resources in containing spread "outward" from what is known as they bring in the outside help to cope with rising number of cases (it will go over 100 day by the end of the month).

        For mine, it indicates an effort to avoid the need to have a circuit breaker and manage the rise. 100 to 200 c mid November and 200 to 400 around the end of the month. That would be the equivalent of Melbourne's 2000 a day – what happens when they open up at that level will inform us as to the option of/need for a circuit breaker.

        If we want to open up more at Sydney's rate per M (closer to 100 a day) we will need a circuit breaker in November.

  2. this came up on my YT feed. added to my list of stuff to watch. from 2011

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