Daily review 22/08/2023

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, August 22nd, 2023 - 22 comments
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22 comments on “Daily review 22/08/2023 ”

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  1. weka 1
    22 August 2023 at 5:59 pm

    people who follow polls, what's the normal range of undecideds/refused to answer in NZ general election polling?

    • Belladonna 1.1
      22 August 2023 at 7:53 pm

      It's really hard to answer this – since it varies by poll – and isn't always reported. I've had a look at the most recent tranche of polling (where it was mentioned) it ranged from 6% (Guardian) to 18% (Roy Morgan) – but that included 'other' (i.e. minor parties under the threshold collected together with the undecided).

      Roy Morgan here – the link from the Wiki page seems to be broken.

      https://www.roymorgan.com/

      The general 'gut' feeling is that undecided voters aren't going to change results substantially. Most won't actually vote (therefore leaving the result unchanged). And, if there is a massive sea change which gets undecided voters off the couch – it's going to also motivate voters-with-a-preference to change as well (again leaving the result reasonably unchanged – though it might increase a majority).

      What you do have to be careful of are 'shy' voters – who either lie about their voting intentions to pollsters; or claim they are undecided, when they actually have a preference. This is an increasing phenomenon. This is why the polls were so wrong in the US when Trump was elected (well, and that the polling and journalists were heavily based in Democratic states and cities).

      In addition, some polling is now done with panels – asking the same group of people each time, for their voting preferences. The act of being on a panel, and regularly discussing voting preferences, may change the political perception and 'willingness' to express a preference and/or vote. So the panel may have started off as representative of the population, but that may become less true as time goes on.

      • weka 1.1.1
        22 August 2023 at 8:08 pm

        hmm, that doesn't take into account swing voters.

        The poll last night has undecided and refused to answer at 12%. Those that did know and answered added up to 100%. Where to the sub 1% parties fit in that?

        I thought 12% was high.

        https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/08/21/poll-labour-dips-to-just-29-national-act-on-course-for-win/

        • Belladonna 1.1.1.1
          22 August 2023 at 8:54 pm

          Swing voters are ones who change their preference from one party to another. So intending to vote Labour last poll, decided to vote Greens in this one.

          They would only be counted as undecided if they moved from an intention to vote for one party in the last poll, to being unsure of which party to support in this one (e.g. intending to vote Labour last poll, undecided in this one).

          It may be that the polling company (like Roy Morgan) have included the minor party votes with the Undecideds. Or just left them out of the totals. Since that's what would happen if their vote share is under 5%.

          • weka 1.1.1.1.1
            22 August 2023 at 9:06 pm

            my point about swing voters is that if a proportion of undecideds are in fact swing voters, then that could impact on the election result.

            I assume 'undecided' is anyone who doesn't know on the day they are polled who they would vote for if the election was held that day.

            • Belladonna 1.1.1.1.1.1
              22 August 2023 at 9:34 pm

              Well, it's possible. And something like that possibly happened in 2020 (the totals for Labour were undercounted and for National overcounted in almost every poll immediately prior to the election). But it didn't change the result (well, it increased the Labour majority – but didn't change the government).

              It would seem unlikely that there were substantial numbers of 'shy' voters who didn't want to tell the pollsters they were voting Labour (Ardern was incredibly popular). Perhaps the strong Labour polling encouraged people to move from undecided or weak National support, to vote Labour – on the day.
              Or perhaps polls are just becoming less reliable. ….

        • mikesh 1.1.1.2
          23 August 2023 at 7:28 am

          If I was asked I would tell the pollster that I was undecided. However, I'm 100% certain on the matter of whom I would not vote for.

    • Christopher 1.2
      22 August 2023 at 8:21 pm

      This old RNZ opinion article mentions a 2017 study that states 20% reported that they made up their mind who to vote for in 2017 in the final week.

      If it has any relevance to this year's election then it would be interesting to know how that 20% in 2017 voted that election – if it was for change, for the then status quo, or about 50-50.

      https://tinyurl.com/375896zm

  2. Tony Veitch 2
    22 August 2023 at 6:46 pm

    Luxon wouldn't discuss Act policies on TV1 News tonight, whether he'd rule in or out anything Act wanted.

    But . . . in his ambition Luxon would deal with the devil to be PM. So, potentially, what ever Act wants, Act will get!

    Potentially, the most right-wing government since the Lange mob of 1984-7.

    Be frightened New Zealand, be very frightened!

    • bwaghorn 2.1
      22 August 2023 at 7:38 pm

      Right wing ,and conservative anti womans rights Christian, what could ho wrong

      • Patricia Bremner 2.1.1
        22 August 2023 at 8:24 pm

        Plus Simeon Brown, and apparently Nicola Willis is very conservative. I think that is a sound question bwaghorn, and one they will skate around.

        Further, today Christopher Luxon rubbished two of Act's ideas, but there are many more that Willis has said they have "in common."

        Finally reporters are asking… but he will not get away with patsy answers too much longer. The thinking will show. It is about money mainly, people, not so much.

        So who will lose their jobs/homes/ and possibly families in the austerity ahead?

      • Shanreagh 2.1.2
        23 August 2023 at 11:57 am

        anti womans rights

        I don't think National are the only ones…..as far as I can see the only parties with explicit pro women policies are NZ First and of course the fledgling Womens Rights Party.

        Of course the lack of an explicit policy on women does not mean the party is anti, just that we are not important enough, being only 51% of the population to warrant our own policies. /:sarc

        There is a truism in Employment disputes 'if it isn't written down it doesn't exist' I think it is fair to say that there is a dearth of pro womens rights policies other than the two I have mentioned.

        NZ First

        1. New Zealand First will ensure no men are in women's spaces or sports (bolded in the original)
          1. Public Bathrooms and Changing Rooms: We will pass legislation to ensure that all new public organisations that provide publicly used facilities, including in areas of sport, education or commercially, must provide separate, clearly demarcated, unisex and single sex bathrooms. In addition, all current provision of publicly used facilities will not allow anyone access to facilities which are designed for the opposite sex use.
          2. Public Funding for Sports: We will pass legislation to ensure any publicly funded sporting body that does not have an exclusive biological female category, where ordinarily appropriate, shall be immediately ineligible for any public funding.
          3. https://www.nzfirst.nz/2023_commitments

        And

        Women's rights party

        the right to speak freely

        The right to peaceful assembly, association, and movement.

        The right to safe single-sex spaces for women and girls.

        The right to be free from violence in all its forms.

        The right to equitable reward and recognition for women's contributions to society and work, whether paid or unpaid.

        The right to have control of our own bodies, including reproductive autonomy.

        The right to protect and safeguard our children.

        The right for motherhood to be recognised as exclusively female.

        The right to fair play in sports.

        The right to evidence-based education and healthcare with informed consent.

        The right to use clear and plain language when referring to women in the media, academia, in healthcare, at work and at home.

        https://womensrightsparty.nz/our-priorities/

        The Greens do have this policy

        https://www.greens.org.nz/gender_equity_2023

        but as I read it, it is based on the flawed idea that women are a gender rather than a biological sex along with men, and puts us equally with other genders such as the cat gender etc.

        So you don't have to be part of the group you are commenting on B Waghorn to have no women's policies, and by implication be anti-women. (I think that it is a step too far to say that no explicit policies on women means being anti women, more likely it is an acceptance of the view that we do not exist or exist only with other genders)

    • weka 2.2
      22 August 2023 at 8:10 pm

      "So, potentially, what ever Act wants, Act will get!"

      would you say that about the Greens or Te Pāti Māori if Labour get to form government only with them?

    • Shanreagh 2.3
      23 August 2023 at 12:05 pm

      Potentially, the most right-wing government since the Lange mob of 1984-7.

      Such a pity that any Labour govt has gone down in history as this. Especially as Lange, initially at least, saw the wholesale turning over of all the institutions as a way to uplift the lives of everyone. I think Douglas, Caygill & Prebble did a snow job on the Labour party to get this sort of stuff through. Lange did not seem to have the power to resist them and was ill.

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