Daily review 23/12/2021

34 comments on “Daily review 23/12/2021 ”

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1. McFlock 1

   23 December 2021 at 6:35 pm

   Videos from [not a medical] Dr John Campbell seemed to substitute for a lot of work today.

   He sure knows how to target a market segment.
   • Matiri 1.1

     23 December 2021 at 7:19 pm

     His PhD focused on the development of open learning resources for nurses. The PhD allows him to use the Dr title.
     • McFlock 1.1.1

       23 December 2021 at 7:41 pm

       Indeed.

       But he's not a medical doctor.
       • Ed1 1.1.1.1

         23 December 2021 at 8:39 pm

         I didn't see anything of this – is there a url to be enlightened?
         • McFlock 1.1.1.1.1

           23 December 2021 at 8:49 pm

           Today's open mike. Scroll down the covidian arguments (if you can be bothered) and look at which channel provides the bulk of the youtube links people use.
         • Molly 1.1.1.1.2

           24 December 2021 at 8:59 am

           McFlock is providing his opinion – off-thread – of the validity of this person –

           check our employment and education – having the audacity to talk to this person – who has only published these and advises the Danish government on the Covid response – and both coming to the conclusion that aspiration should be the method of Covid vaccine delivery.

           Horror of horrors, it was then posted on the dreaded Youtube.

           The inhumanity didn't stop there, as always the conclusion was quantified and links provided for independent research.

           Then someone on TS had the temerity to post the link to such unqualified discussion as an explanatory, and source of further links.

           As we know, preferred robust debate is comments bravely made off-thread in a snarky manner, without actually getting dirtied by actual discussion.

           I'm practicing this method here.
           • francesca 1.1.1.1.2.1

             24 December 2021 at 10:37 am

             And a NZ link on today's Open Mike also recommends our vaccinators aspirate in light of the latest vaccine related myocarditis death .

             But McFlock knows best!!
             • joe90 …

               24 December 2021 at 10:50 am

               Opinions ain't recommendations.
               • francesca …

                 24 December 2021 at 11:02 am

                 Opinions of the pathologist who performed the autopsy are most certainly to be taken seriously(unless you're so invested in a particular opinion yourself you are driven to oppose that expert advice)
           • McFlock 1.1.1.1.2.2

             24 December 2021 at 10:36 pm

             It's a different thread.

             I was noting how people with shared opinions seem to share sources. [Not a medical] Dr John might be the best or only communicator of medical science on youtube. Or it could just be that "do your own research" simply means "watch this youtube channel I like".

             But hey, he supports your preconceptions, he must be telling the truth (the whole truth, and nothing but the truth) rather than selecting his sources based on what his segment likes.
             • weka …

               25 December 2021 at 12:08 am

               he does seem to have skills at explaining things in ways that are easy to follow. That's useful, but I noted the other day that he uses words like 'may' a lot. Which is fine but I'm not sure why people attribute certainty in that case.
               • Molly …

                 26 December 2021 at 9:12 am

                 "…but I noted the other day that he uses words like 'may' a lot. "

                 That's one of the reasons I link to him, he doesn't draw conclusions from newly released data or unreviewed papers. I don't mind that aspect, and given the links you can go and investigate further.

                 Given the emergent nature of Covid and its variants looking for trends is going to help adapt responses. I'm alright with the uncertain nature, its a result of the situation. I've tried not to claim certainty when none has been given, either in the video or the links.
                 • weka …

                   26 December 2021 at 10:09 am

                   I completely agree. Unfortunately his videos are being used to forward arguments by people who are asserting certainty.

                   I haven't watched him enough to know if he is playing to that audience or if he is genuinely just providing data and analysis and some people are misusing that.

                   My own position, precautionary principle, is based on the uncertainty and once we push that button there is no going back. I think there is much to be discussed about why people chose the position they do. I was talking to a young woman recently who referenced JC's vids, and who seems to believe that opening up is the best thing in the basis that omicron is mild. It was kind of hard to point out that we just don't know yet. When I dug a bit deeper, it turns out she really just needs some good news. And despite us talking a bit about the importance of good information she seemed unaware of how that need was impacting on what she was believing.

                   We all have bias of course. But more so than most areas generally I see people strongly attached to their belief across the board.
                   • Rosemary McDonald …

                     26 December 2021 at 11:44 am

                     I haven't watched him enough to know if he is playing to that audience or if he is genuinely just providing data and analysis and some people are misusing that.

                     He is genuinely just providing analysis, and I believe (from delving into his archive pre Covid) he sincerely wants to explain and demystify physiology and basic biochemistry and pharmacology. He is a nurse, and an educator.

                     Covid has seen him (and a few others) really step up and put the stats and the research before the public. His very early discussions on Vitamin D3 saw him step slightly away from the hard core government line. He has been staunchly pro vax from the start. At the cost of some viewers and has attracted some unkind comments.

                     However…he has done deep dives into Ivermectin…and compared that existing drug (with a solid decades long safety record) with the new Pfizer protease inhibitor (with fuck all safety record and a narrower MOA). He has clearly been through some intellectual changes as he has had to get his head around the massive censorship of certain research and Covid treatments and the dismissal by officials of basic public health and nursing protocols.

                     His long interview with young Kyle….

                     …most certainly gave him a prominent position on the global scale.

                     Much needed mainstream discussion of the very serious and not so rare side effects of the mRNA vaccines and continued discussion of aspiration when administering the jabs.

                     A simple procedure, and clearly Campbell (and millions of others of us throughout the world) is truly baffled why this is not being made compulsory simply as a precautionary measure.

                     And I find his avoidance of dogma refreshing.

                     Don't know about anyone else, but the supposed certainties of "safe and effective" and "protects from serious disease, hospitalisation and death" a little unnerving…from a political point of view…especially when delivered repeatedly from the podium of the single source of truth.
                   • weka …

                     26 December 2021 at 12:26 pm

                     Thanks Rosemary, I will take a look at his pre-covid vids.

                     Yeah, I don't think anything is certain at this point and I've always assumed that the vaccines would have down sides (and this was definitely part of my personal risk assessment in choosing to be vaccinated). The first year of debate here about it all being glorious and going to save us was tedious. I'm glad that's settled down a bit as people realise the limitations of the covid vaccine and how that factors in what we need to be doing.
                   • McFlock …

                     26 December 2021 at 9:31 pm

                     Ther flipside is that he does a lot of deep dives on a variety of issue that are well outside his area of training, which means that for a lot of it he doesn't really know the context of his source material. Especially when he raised studies that have been largely ignored, maybe they were ignored because of horrendous systemic bias in the global medical system, or maybe they've been largely ignored because they are small and have some confounding factors that weren't clearly addressed.

                     Additionally, a lack of specialist knowledge places more emphasis on how he gathers his source articles and interviewees. If he has a systemic bias, eg involves some reference gathering from his comments section, that's a problem.

                     But some folks with a particular distrust of the medical profession like what they hear, so good for him, I guess. Whether they hear what he said, or whether what he said reflects the research he's reporting, or whether his research is a fair coverage of whatever pretty dense sector of study he's reporting on… those are other questions entirely.
2. roblogic 2

   23 December 2021 at 7:49 pm

   Fun twitter thread #1: The tree frog

   https://twitter.com/simoncurtis/status/1473144616828510212?s=20
   • joe90 2.1

     23 December 2021 at 8:24 pm

     I see a frog.

     https://twitter.com/Stonekettle/status/1473399146266644485
3. roblogic 3

   23 December 2021 at 7:50 pm

   Fun tweet #2: Punk rock goat

   https://twitter.com/pietersender/status/1473423423716175873?s=20
   • Dennis Frank 3.1

     23 December 2021 at 9:23 pm

     but did she learn to pogo? probably sussed the spitting first…
4. Koff 4

   23 December 2021 at 10:05 pm

   Scott Morrison's best mate, right wing libertarian, pro-business premier of NSW, Dominic Perrotet (we call him Parrot Hat for some reason) is just beginning to panic* as case numbers and hospitalisations are rapidly increasing in NSW. 80% of cases are now Omicron, so what happens here will be certainly worth watching in NZ for when the inevitable happens and Omicron escapes from MIQ. Thanks to the border between Queensland and NSW opening, Queensland's case numbers, mostly Omicron like NSW, are also rapidly increasing. It's the first time since we flew back to Brisbane from Auckland last April that there is a palpable sense of worry in this state.

   • https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/23/dominic-perrottet-has-finally-realised-that-letting-it-rip-comes-at-too-a-high-cost-for-all-of-us
   • weka 4.1

     23 December 2021 at 11:42 pm

     ah, the laissex-faire pandemic response. The market (or nature) will prevail and all will be well. /snort

     We are so incredibly lucky in NZ to be behind the rest of the world.
     • Shanreagh 4.1.1

       24 December 2021 at 9:30 am

       We are so incredibly lucky in NZ to be behind the rest of the world.

       And steering our own course without the need to copy the actions of the UK and Australia. The Aus example of personal responsibility when Omicron is running rampant seems a pretty odd sort of path. Though if their hospitals have the capacity, they may be just letting her rip until this capacity is reached then putting the brakes on again.
       • Pat 4.1.1.1

         24 December 2021 at 9:44 am

         Despite a milder version their health system (which is better resourced than our own) appears to be struggling.

         "With about 1500 hospital workers across the state’s health system in isolation due to COVID-19, some staff have been asked to reverse holiday leave to bolster the workforce as the outbreak grows."….

         "“If you don’t feel unwell, you don’t need to be tested,” Mr Perrottet said. “Many people across the state who are asymptomatic, who do not feel unwell, are lining up for a PCR test. This is putting enormous pressure on the system.”….

         "Screenshots of NSW Ambulance’s control centre status board, seen by the Herald, show that on Wednesday the average response time for P1, or potentially life-threatening cases, was 58 minutes across the Sydney metropolitan area.

         P1 category cases include unconscious patients, people having an acute heart attack or choking.

         “We’re asking people to save calling triple zero for saving lives,” Mr Dutton said."

         https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/hospitals-under-pressure-with-hundreds-of-staff-isolating-as-restrictions-return-20211223-p59jsc.html
         • weka 4.1.1.1.1

           24 December 2021 at 10:17 am

           that's incredibly sobering.

           Add to that, the issue of long covid and/or recurrent acute infections in health care providers. This is the concern with the NHS in the UK now, so many staff are dead, burned out, traumatised, long covid, or quit while they still could, and how will the system sustain itself over the next ten years? I guess in neoliberal marketland, there are always more workers waiting to be exploited.
           • Pat 4.1.1.1.1.1

             24 December 2021 at 10:36 am

             Its worth noting how wide the impacts are….the 'health system' is more than hospitals and nurses.

             I doubt we can afford to burn out/disincentivise the limited health sector workers we currently enjoy.
             • weka …

               24 December 2021 at 10:59 am

               yes, I'm just writing a post, and pointing out that hospitals can't function without cleaners and service people either.
         • RedLogix 4.1.1.1.2

           24 December 2021 at 10:19 am

           The problem seems to be 'staff isolating' when maybe they don't need to be. And besides aren't they all fully vaccinated and therefore unable to pass the virus on?
           • Pat 4.1.1.1.2.1

             24 December 2021 at 10:39 am

             Staff isolating is part of it…i'd suggest a small part. Theres inability to fill positions, increased workload, increased precautions etc…it all adds to the problem….and I assume the vaccination comment is tongue in cheek.
             • RedLogix …

               24 December 2021 at 10:45 am

               Staff isolating is part of it…i'd suggest a small part.

               Well the linked article suggested otherwise with over 1500 staff stood down. That's non-trivial in my book and only adds pressure to an already stressed system – as you say. But if it’s Omicron involved in these stand downs, the logic of this is open to question in my view.

               Another aspect to be cautious of is that Australia is still seeing a mix of Delta and Omicron cases – and given their very different severity it's going to be important to separate the data for both in order to properly understand what's going on.

               And yes tongue was in cheek somewhat.
               • Pat …

                 24 December 2021 at 10:55 am

                 Stood down, or on sick leave……and 'a small part' does not equate to trivial.
               • Koff …

                 24 December 2021 at 11:01 am

                 According to Kerry Chant (NSW's CHO), 80% of all new cases in NSW are Omicron. That ratio is probably higher in Queensland. There is no consensus on how severe Omicron is compared to Delta, as yet. I know we all hope new variants become less severe, but there is no guarantee that will happen. The 7 day hospitalisation rate for NSW is definitely following the trend for case numbers, i.e. upwards, but later and not so steep. Fingers crossed, but a lot of nervousness in Oz and a precautionary stance is definitely the best stratgey at the moment.
                 • RedLogix …

                   24 December 2021 at 11:21 am

                   More or less agree. The challenge to understand what's happening in Australia right now is the mix of factors playing into it. Regardless of Omicron or not, the relaxation of restrictions was always going to see something of a surge in Delta cases and deaths anyway.

                   Then Omicron has come along right over the top of this, confusing the hell out of the picture.

                   Given the first known cases of Omicron arose in Botswana on November 9th – we've actually got close to seven weeks of experience with this variant now. I would expect we should have a clear idea of how it behaves in various settings by the end of January at the latest.
5. Koff 5

   24 December 2021 at 11:02 am

   According to Kerry Chant (NSW's CHO), 80% of all new cases in NSW are Omicron. That ratio is probably higher in Queensland. There is no consensus on how severe Omicron is compared to Delta, as yet. I know we all hope new variants become less severe, but there is no guarantee that will happen. The 7 day hospitalisation rate for NSW is definitely following the trend for case numbers, i.e. upwards, but later and not so steep. Fingers crossed, but a lot of nervousness in Oz and a precautionary stance is definitely the best strategy at the moment.

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