I hope there are going to be further assistance announcements shortly.
I'm pretty concerned about consumer debt, there are thousands of people with credit cards, car finance and the like that they are not going to be able to service. These are the people that will get absolutely buried in fees, penalties, repossessions etc in short order and credit histories destroyed.
Really hoping this will be addressed.
On a positive note a friends landlord has said that given the mortgage holiday they will cut the rent over the shutdown to just enough cover rates insurances etc. Hope all landlords are acting this way.
Banker here. Standard practise- what you would pay in interest is put onto your loan balance each month/fortnight/week. You then end up paying interest on your interest.
Great for short term cashflow. Horrible things for anything longer than 3-6 months.
We have been told to approve without any credit assessment for anyone asking for help due to the Covid situation.
It would be similar for businesses – government may front (interest free from the QE) loans for them to pay rent (for a month, 3 or 6 etc). But the businesses (those that survive) pay it back later.
For residential rents, it's more complicated.
There is income support to those who lose jobs (but not enough to cover their rent). Maybe all those who go onto income support should be able to evidence their circumstance to both
1. qualify the landlord for banker relief
2. reduce their rent payment to 50%. (with capacity to have this paid by government where even this caused hardship – outright or via interest free loan).
latest statement I saw had interest holiday as well…so no accumulated interest but banks will contact customers direct in next couyple of days with details
So we going to suspend capitalist economics from Wednesday , how about we just change the economy instead of reviving this corporate capitalist mess after this is over.
Well, no, that's not what your links say at all. Certainly no quotes to that effect.
And if I were in a conspiracist frame of mind, rather than saying it was bullshit I'd suggest that dolt45's AG has merely protected people who played a significant part in getting the fool elected.
Yup. I saw the charges against the Internet Research Agency were dropped like hot potatoes when they said they'd turn up to court. Pity. It would have been fun to hear prosecution arguments on how Jesus Masturbation memes on fb turned people to vote Trump….or Buff Bernie memes turned people off Clinton ..or, seeing as how the bulk of money spent by the IRA was spent after the election, how those ads managed to act backwards through space and time 🙂
Watched an interesting youtube commentary that leaned on info compiled by COVID Act Now that was created by a team of data scientists, engineers, and designers in partnership with epidemiologists, public health officials, and political leaders to help understand how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect their region.
Make of it what you will, but it strikes me as level headed. I
Its focus is the USA, but a bit that pertains to here is on containment strategies. Essentially (or apparently), unless there is a Wuhan type containment strategy or a "Shelter in Place" strategy – which is kind of what NZ is doing (though you might say we're tilting a more towards Wuhan type containment) , then infection rates are reckoned to be over 70%. (That's for doing nothing and basic social distancing)
The modeling covers 8 weeks Wuhan type containment and 12 weeks Shelter in Place.
Wuhan R0 assumptions: 1.3 for 1 week, 0.3 for 5 weeks, 0.2 for 1 week, 0.035 for 1 week.
Shelter in Place R0 assumptions: 1.3 for 4 weeks, 1.1 for 4 weeks, 0.8 for 4 weeks.
If the modeling is reasonable, then there's no way level 4 containment is going to be lifted after 4 weeks (though I guess it might be lifted in places and re-imposed etc)
Like I say, it’s an interesting read for those with a head for it. Recommended.
I'm guessing 12 weeks if everyone sticks to the game plan. I don't expect everyone to stick to the game plan though.
And I wish the foresight was there to shut supermarkets to the public where possible. Let local dairies use them as warehouse supply nodes.
That way, any outbreak is much more likely to be very local – eg, limited to people who had gone to the local dairy as opposed to the far wider geographical and populous area of those who had hit the supermarket.
from what i understand that if you get it mildly two – three weeks, but even after that you might still shed the virus.
if you get it hard case you might need treatment up to six weeks, with a long recovery period at home and a chance of long lasting lung damage.
So take the current situation, if we were all to stay the f at home as we supposed to, within ten to fourteen days we would know where all the sick people and carriers are.
they then need another two to twelve weeks to get back on their feet.
so twelve weeks. Goes hand in hand with what China experienced, and in saying that one of the Parliament Critters from Taiwan announced a 'second' wave coming as people are not 'social distancing'.
It matters little if you go to the supermarket, the dairy, the market or if you partner is an essential services. Its an aggressive virus, it transmits easily, and the question for all of us not IF we get it but rather When.
The best they can do is limit the numbers of people in shops according to shop size, have people cover their hair, wear a mask, gloves, and goggles if need be. do their shopping, pay at the self check out and all the shop staff does is wipe everything down with high grade cleaning products.
Our best hope is really that they will get quick tests in fast for all, and then keep testing people daily / weekly what ever until they find a. treatment, b. vaccine.
the question for all of us not IF we get it but rather When.
That had been my basic understanding – ie, about 70% of us would get hit over time, and the concern was to avoid everyone getting it in a short period of time and tanking health services and undertakers (basically).
However. (And, I mean, this just leads me to say "dunno") According to what I'm taking as a level headed take on stuff from this link (randomly landed on figures for Kansas – which seems appropriate 🙂 ), the measures NZ has in place can result in a hit rate of as low as 3%.
Germany 88 million people and a transit country. I.e. people from the rest of europe driving through, stopping gassing up, eating, shopping etc etc etc. Massive issue.
NZ. 4.5 million, close the airports, only open to repatriate tourists, and to let kiwis come back. Quarantine set up at the Airport, set up by the Army manned with Army doctors/nurses etc, plus the country on look down. And you pretty much only have 4.5 million to worry about.
We are in a remarkably good position to weather this with a low death toll, if people can stay at home. And that means no evictions, no foreclosures, etc etc etc and frankly i have yet to see the government really do something to make sure that ALL of Kiwis get to keep their house, not only the richest one.
Well, as a renter, I thought it jolly spiffing that mortgage holders got a six month holiday (or some such). Not so jolly spiffing for the mum and her 7 year old who got evicted this morning. (Normality persists for some)
And as a Sick Ben (fucked if I know the 'new' label they applied to folk like me a few years back), I appreciate the opportunity for exercise being afforded me by not receiving any extra monies before this Wednesday.
So happy to not have a problem of making space in my tiny kitchen for extra food items. And thrilled that I get to pay internet and electricity and rent just like before.
Yup. Thankfully, I get to hang on to poor "normal" while the unfortunate, home 'owning' middle classes are no doubt going to be traumatized by the relief measures heading their way 🙂
again, its businesses that have an anual turnover of 250.000 and 80million that can apply. You know. Not all mortgage owner are equal either. Me and my micro business certainly don't apply, nor the dude that has a 70.000 or less income and a wife and three kids. WE so far got fuck all.
And the really small businesses are told to go to the bank for a loan. But to be fair when the local Labour Wanabe gonna come collect 'donations and votes' for their elections, i will tell them exactly that…..go to the bank for a loan.:)
Ahh, well i can't wait to cast my vote for a third party. 🙂
But yes we are lucky, and yes, the main focus of support has been on employment directly or indirectly because that is how about 90% of the country makes its living.
So far I have yet to see you describe how you'd have done it differently.
If I understand the deal with the 'retail' banks, they are now targeting SME's with support provided they can show that they were solvent prior to December 31st.
In the meantime, I'm going to concentrate more on those who aren't likely to lose their house but are more likely to actually go homeless in an environment where there are no new jobs.
I have actually said very early on, some 6 – 8 weeks ago thatwe need a
mortgage / lease/ rent/ bill holiday for the duration of the shut down, for all. small and large businesses. By governmental degree. I have linked to several articles of countries that are doing this, Italy being one of the first todo so.
The main issue is that we need to keep people at home. We can't do that if they have bills to pay and can't keep up paying without money. Anyone who has will try to be essential services, it does not matter what hey do. And thus the disease will spread.
It is quite nice for the government to pay wage subsidies to companies large enough that hey can ride out the storm. However for businesses taht are not that big, don't have the big money behind them and need actual cashflow for monthly bills and overheads it means nothing. It would have been easier for the government to allow small businesses to let go of its staff early on and offer unemployement for the workers, coupled with heating assistance, food assistance, accom benefit to make up to the 80% of min wage as it does via the wage subsidy. As we will hire our staff back once we can work. As it is, my staff will get some money for twelve weeks and then she will go on the unemployment benefit as there are chances that i will have to default on lease and overhead payments.
Personally i am with bill, the easiest way wold have been to instruct IRD to send every adult of NZ a check of say 800 – 1000 per week. This would be enough in most cases to at least cover rent/food/utilites. No applying simply send out the check. The IRD should be set up for it as they already do that for tax refunds.
Next they could have cancelled the end of year/GST returns until say August. Non of that we will wave late payment fees. AS if any of us have the mind to do a stock take and fill out forms, specially when we are in lock down. And again, non of us make money so we don't have money even with the higher thresholds. So cancel provisional tax completly and let businesses keep that money.
Next they could have offered Goverment loans – this could have been done via WINZ – call them 'hardship' loans to businesses like mine. I don't mind taking out a loan, but i mind taking out a loan at standard interest rate because the government is not negotiating with the bank for us and thus even a small loan will be very expensive and hard if not impossible to repay. So a government loan with no repayments for say 4 – 6 month (depending on how long we may not be able to work) and then set the repayment rates according to business turn over.
So far we have paid subsidies to some of the biggest companies in nz, many whom are very actively avoiding paying taxes in the first place. now we are offering companies a mortgage holiday – but only if they are over 250.000 anual turn over or more. Instead we should have made it illegal for any evictions for the next 5 month.
We should have made it illegal for companies to cut of utilities.
My partner is the only income we now have – and he is a standard income waged worker, and he is essential service – so will be out and about fixing computers in banks and super market check outs and the likes and if he falls ill or worse dies, i will be homeless. Because i will have no way to generate an income. And there are many like me. a few tens of thousands. But its ok. I am just whinging.
We seem to have no issue asking for solidarity from those that have everything to lose yet we ask nothing from those that hoard money, houses, boats and the likes.
We woke up 2 x lump sum wage subsidy in our account this morning, for a couple who run a tourist retail gallery. One of our artists got a payment in his account too.
Apply, you'll get it.
If you've got a recent lease on an ADLS form there's a clause that covers this situation as a result of the Christchurch earthquake debacle. Look up 27.5 and 27.6, No Access in Emergency. Essentially rent ceases to be payable if a competent authority deems you cannot occupy the premises. If the lease is older than 2012 this may not apply and I gather this is what government is moving on in coming days.
In an earthquake or other damage scenarios the landlord would be able to claim on their insurance to recover the rent, but in the current situation the will most likely be an exclusion for pandemics. Hence Robertson said the other day that something was coming up regarding commercial leases, not doing something is going to get messy, and it'll be all the way up the chain to the big corporate retailers and others that have to close.
I'm eagerly awaiting details of the mortgage / loan repayment holiday too, that will be handy for cashflow, even if it's just kicking the can down the road.
Evidently some of the larger landlords around Queenstown are offering their tenants rent holidays, so they may have knowledge that they will get it back from somewhere.
we have applied, we have so far received nothing. mind winz will be over run with applications.
i am eagerly awaiting anything the government has to offer. And i know quite a few people here in Rotorua that are also worried witless.
Mostly i am worried for my partner. He will be out there working and we are in a two bedroom unit and its gonna be hell to quarantine either of us if we have/get the flu.
i am however over with the bail outs for the very rich. At the very least there should be some strings attached to the aid the receive, like paying taxes.
My tenants (while I was making sure that they weren’t going to have issues) said that their mate, a self-employed tradie, just got $12k in his bank account, meant to help cover 12 weeks of corona revenue drop (presumably in the past). I didn’t go into it further than that.
Some question why Italy was caught off guard when the virus outbreak was revealed on Feb. 21.
Remuzzi says he is now hearing information about it from general practitioners. "They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November," he says. "This means that the virus was circulating, at least in [the northern region of] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China."
He says it was impossible to combat something you didn't know existed.
a lot of my friends in the US also complained about the weirdest flu ever, hard hacking cough, no energy, fever every now and then, feeling weak and tired etc – which if you don't get the oxygen you need is what you would be feeling like. The only difference between the US and Italy, In Italy if you are ill you go to the doctor, in the US you take a pill.
It wouldn’t surprise me that there are bugs circulating. When they go retrospectively go through the biopsies and autopsy data at a genetic level then the origin will probably become pretty apparent.
However the basic issue is that history shows that the over-inflated human population has to be pretty damn careful of animal contacts. There has been a pretty clear species jump showing in origin morphology of all of the major pandemics of the last 2000 years where we have some reasonable histories. Often this is morphed into the human reservoir issue where a population get immune to a disease but acts as a carrier to another population.
It isn’t like we have the other major human reservoirs to uncap.
What we have left are animal population reservoirs and the unproven (but possible) ancient disease reservoirs (ie ones that show up in ice, but are not evident in any current population).
What I’m arguing is the we really need start focusing more closely at the sources of outbreaks. From HIV to Ebola to recent corona viruses we’re now routinely seeing cross-species infections.
how many of violent sadistic state house tenants are there in NZ? i did not read any further. Also i don’t like the picture of the dog. Its a good doggo and his images is used to show a violent sadistic state house tenant?
how many of violent sadistic state house tenants are there in NZ?
More than a few if my Parents' area is anything to go by. Some really violent, anti-social, out-of-control people moving in (over last 4 or 5 years) to what was always a wonderful, peaceful, socially-mixed & community-minded street. Corollary of the move towards almost exclusively allocating to the severely problematic end of the Underclass.
Pompous affluent Luvvies, of course, get to ostentatiously virtue-signal & paternalistically romanticise in order to enhance their own social prestige & assuage their own guilt without ever doing one friggin iota of the suffering. It's a great little con trick.
An interesting blend of covert sadism, sheer cowardice & rank hypocrisy parading as some sort of moral righteousness.
Long-term residents – the socially-minded poor & middle-class (the vast majority Labour & Green supporters, incidentally) – get to be the unofficial scapegoats who are apparently expected to do all the penance on the Luvvies behalf.
Also i don’t like the picture of the dog. Its a good doggo and his images is used to show a violent sadistic state house tenant?
Title of Post: Thrown to the Wolves
Illustrated by: A picture of an angry Wolf
Try not to be quite so silly. (or do I mean desperate ?)
Oh fuck … so it's still going on. I read your post all the way through and could visualise it all. Unacceptable at every turn.
My only useful advice is to start recording what it going on using a time stamped security camera; they’re not expensive these days. You never know when hard evidence will prove useful.
One way or another … I'll resolve this predicament. And then I might start telling some Home Truths to a few people with highly romanticised (& highly paternalistic) ideas about the Underclass.
Absolutely; our own similar experience pretty smartly slapped the delusions from us too.
This 'no eviction' policy is why landlords are so unhappy about the end of the 90 day 'no cause' termination notice. In this country the Police and Courts are of little assistance in dealing with anti-social tenants and effectively dump the problem onto the landlord.
Here in Australia we had a problem neighbour and when we talked to the property manager about it, we were promptly re-directed to the Police who very efficiently handled it. They made it clear to us that this sort of shite behaviour is either 'mad or bad'. What they told us to do was put a security camera pointing into the common area and if the behaviour changed then it meant the person had understanding that what they were doing was bad, and should then be held accountable and have consequences.
It turned out our case was 'bad', and eventually the consequence was a Court ordered eviction.
NZ has a long standing problem with violence, and until we can have an honest conversation around it's root causes, leaving out the self-serving yelling about racism and colonisation, we're pretty much stuck with it. There are many complex threads that feed into it, but the hard truth the left is very resistant to, is that you cannot help someone who will not take responsibility for themselves.
Cheers, Red. Thanks very much for your support on this over the last year or so.
I'm familiar with your problem tenants & the serious trouble they've caused (been following your vigorous on-going debate with McFlock on the matter almost religously over recent weeks).
I'll have quite a bit more to say about my Parents' situation & the tacit No Eviction policy on my blog over the next few Months (but don't want to labour the point too much here … when people start going on about their private problems relentlessly on social media then it can get pretty tedious pretty quickly for everyone else. So probably just 3 or 4 posts on Sub-Zero outlining the problem, expressing my anger & frustration (hopefully without descending into a full-scale rant) & then exploring the broader political implications in a more sober way.
I was told by my daughter today her landlord in Edinburgh has had his curling rink commandeered for use as a temporary morgue….think that may be a pretty good incentive for us to do a better job of handling this than has been the case overseas
Well…if that info I read around the impact of a successful "Shelter in Place" strategy is correct…
Am I the only one who has (perhaps mistakenly) laboured under the assumption that "flattening the curve" was only about spreading out the same number of infections over time?
I've been doing a bit of scattered reading the past few hours over a number of publications and noticing that the possible actual effects of isolation strategies aren't being explicitly stated – that the notion of "everyone" inevitably contracting the virus is the kinda accepted "truth" in more or less everything I'm reading. The containment info is sometimes in there (implied), but basically skipped over.
Assuming the "hit rate" can be brought down to single percentage numbers with good containment strategies in place, then…why isn't that message being pushed hard and repeatedly?
The reason why is because there are zero treatments apart from keeping severe cases alive through the worst. That requires ventilators to help people breathe and near constant monitoring to save them if they're going under.
Flattening the curve (which you clearly grasped) is about making sure that there are ventilators and the treatments available for the severe cases. Thereby reducing the death rate.
Otherwise there is the secondary option of a hopefully brief visit to the curling rink.
Roll on a vaccine of an effective anti-viral. Because we really can't afford the (calculates) the potential 200-300k at about a 5% fatality rate who could die in NZ if our health system gets swamped. Which appears to be about the 'natural' cull rate of covid-19 in an unsuspecting populace given the usual 4-5 waves before herd immunity is acheived.
We lost 9k with a much simpler and easy to survive disease in 1918/19 effectively without any kind of useful care. That was between ~0.7% (european) and ~15% (maori) death rates of the populations with what was for the time close to the best available care. 45% deaths in Samoa because the dimwitted NZ occupation forces were too pig-ignorant to institute decent quarantines.
FFS: Doesn't anyone here ever read history? Or are they too interested in wanking about their own problems?
Flattening the curve (which you clearly grasped) is about making sure that there are ventilators and the treatments available for the severe cases. Thereby reducing the death rate.
No.
Different strategies flatten the curve differently. Shelter in Place can mean a total infection rate in the single digits. Social Distancing on the other hand, means widespread infection (up to herd immunity levels) spread over a longer time span.
from what i understand that if you get it mildly two – three weeks, but even after that you might still shed the virus
For 37 days after infection to get close to 100% clear (ie something like a 99.5% certainty of clearance) of sheding according to the research I've been reading. Which is why they're using 14 days quarantine to prove clearance andafter you're 'cleared'.
That is why this virus is way way worse than the 1918/19 influenza pandemic. It has a much long tail and a much more likely later waves. Which is why 4 weeks is the minimum.
just read somehwere today that it can 'live' in feces for up to five weeks.
Yep, i am having no issues with the 4 weeks of isolation. Its gonna bankrupt a lot of us smaller ones but at least we hopefully get to walk out of it alive.
I would expect waves for about 2 years…until either we have decent testing – and fast testing, and a vaccine or people build up some immunity.
However what is going to be a killer if it lasts that long is the damage to the lung by the virus, specially if one can catch it more then once. essentially then it is a recurring illness that will lead to death in a very short time. And that is my guess why everyone on this planet is currently tanking their economy. It is re-occuring and it is a killer.
There has been a lot of aborted research on the various corona viruses over the last decade or two. SARS and MERS – but they've burnt themselves out too fast to finish the research. This one SARS-CoV-2 aka covid-19 looks like it will last long enough to get multiple disruption techniques finished.
Personally I not really interested in 30k base pair biological program defeating us this time. Because they're only going to get worse and we need to prevent the next outbreak.
Be nice to actually identify the human vector from the animal kingdom to this as well. A pogrom against whoever is rubbing up with the animal kingdom the wrong way and allowing these viruses to transfer so often is starting to look way more interesting than living with them.
I suspect that the Chinese government will have a good look at that.
But in NZ, we should look at our pig-farming and chicken-farming practices. And remove antibiotics from the hands of all farmers – vet only and they should be rationed.
Animal farming through much of the US and EU needs a severe curtailment.
Essentially we need to go back to ethical animal husbandry and ethical farming.
I hope for a decent test that is fast and reliable. Something like a blood sugar test, that can be done at home with a simle prick, daily if need be. Shows negative go to work, show positive of into self isolation you go for the next 12 weeks until at least two consecutive tests come back negative. What China did.
Then a treatment.
then a vaccines. Her is hoping that it will happen.
From what I understand, there appears to be too wide a range from known infection to testable results and to symptoms. The symptoms of whatever level show from 1 day to 12 days with the median at about 5 days.
Testing from what I have seen discussed is from 1 day to about 7-8 days for virus RNA or for antibodies. Which is what they’re testing for. The range of that means that testing simply is not that useful. Probably that is because most of the current testing is currently mostly based on swabs looking for RNA from the lungs.
If you want grrrr.. for covid-19 read the section “Target: new infections”
The final step in the virus’ life cycle is infecting a new cell. Typically, what is taught here is a “lie of simplification,” which goes: the virus latches on to a protein on the cell’s surface, then uses that protein to gain entry into the cell. This is true as far as it goes, but for most viruses, things are considerably more complicated. Coronaviruses definitely fall into the “more complicated” category in this regard.
SARS-CoV-2 does latch on to a protein on the surface of cells in the respiratory tract; we’ve already confirmed that it’s the same protein as the one used by the original SARS-CoV. But that doesn’t immediately result in viral contents entering the cell. Instead, the complex of virus and receptors stays on the outside of the cell membrane. That membrane, however, gets pulled into the cell and “pinched off” from the cell’s surface, creating a sac within the cell that now contains “outside” material.
Once this occurs, the virus is technically inside the cell, but it’s still on the wrong side of a membrane from everything it needs to reproduce.
The cell takes over this compartment, lowering its pH and adding enzymes to break down its contents. Corona and other viruses actually take advantage of these changes to enable their infection. In the case of coronavirus, a protease made by the host cell cuts the viral spike protein. Once cut, the spike protein triggers a merger between the membrane in the virus’ coat and the membrane of the compartment it is trapped in. This finally places the virus’ genome inside the cell, where it can proceed with the infection.
That is complex, slow, and much of it is unlikely to trigger fast anti-bodies in the bloodstream (the virus targets the longs) or enough of an immediate expansion of viral RNA in the lungs immediately after infection. They are pretty much testing if someone is currently infectious rather than if they are infected.
A better way of testing would be useful because currently a single point in time for a test or at a single location is likely to miss the early infection.
The 2020 Democratic primary looks more and more like a zombie election where dead ideas (and comatose people) are taking over. Compare Sanders being pilloried for some obvious and non-controversial comments on the Cuban heakth system with this – Cuban medical team arrives in Milan.
The state of the national economy doesn't mean anything when (as happened to me many years ago) you come to realise that your breathing is not giving you enough oxygen, and if you don't get help in the next few breaths you will not have the strength to call out for assistance, and you will die soon thereafter.
I have sat by a relative as they died of lung cancer, going from chatty to dead in a seriously short period of time as they pass that same threshold of getting enough oxygen to sustain life, to not getting enough.
Sexton, Walsh, Kelly, Blanktein and Trump have no clue what they are talking about when they balance life against money.
In extremis, triage based on medical condition and prognosis, I can understand. Triage based on a banker's and a politician's fiscal survival instinct I do not agree with.
If you want to speculate how Siomun and the Natz would have handled the Covid-19 pandemic – just look at how well Trump, Johnson and Morrison are doing – all right wing fwts.
I thought it was very hopeful from a NZ perspective. Like I'm saying in other comments, I'm beginning to think I completely misunderstood the possible effect of a good containment strategy – ie, it's not about spreading an inevitable 'x' number of infections over a longer time period, but about drastically reducing the overall number of infections.
slow down the cases of newly infection by denying the virus new bodies, and at the same time managing the cases arriving at the hospital. Not all people who have the virus will need the hospital. Many can simply stay at home and get better. Well if they can self quarantine at home without infecting the other people living at the house – something that China had an issue with initially.
While I thought we moved too soon – no real evidence of local spread. It's not clearly wrong, given
1. we lacked the testing capacity for such reassurance (the price we pay for not being better prepared)
2. the higher rates of returning Kiwis coming back infected and spreading to their self isolation others (each new one increased the risk of subsequent community spread).
Aided by airlines no longer operating and the arrival of testing kits from Singapore, we will come out of this month (includes the scheduled 2 weeks school holidays) better placed.
1. hopefully reassurance of no (or successfully suppressed) community spread (via community sample testing)
2. more secure arrangements for returning Kiwis – individual placement in the city they arrive at (apartments within hotels or home stays rented by government?) in place
3. the future risk is then Kiwis in Oz losing jobs and being denied income support (so if necessary we QE the dole to them and exploit the subsequent lower Kiwi dollar to the Oz one in trade)
4. air b n b homes no longer being used for tourists ease our housing supply issues
5. at some point we will have to determine on resumption of tourism – there will be antibody testing and vaccination (both depending on whether new strains emerge that can reinfect people).
What will inform us, is how China deals with multiple point reinfection through returning students (back from North America and Europe).
The only known at this point is that QEing our way our of a pandemic is going to scare the capitalist centres no end – how will they react, and when (and will we see it coming).
PDF must have started to lose some contracts because after week of ranting about how slow we were to react he's now flip-flopped and is saying we should weigh up the costs and benefits of our actions.
Nothing like losing your job to hone one’ s analysis of the decisions under which you lost that job, eh Dave.
Question. As stores are starting to no longer accept cash and the country is about to go in lockdown, what am I supposed to do if I've recently lost my wallet and can't find my birth certificate 😭 in the meantime while I wait for replacement id which is going to take absolutely forever due to this shut down,but I need id so my useless bank can issue me a card. I'm waiting on a new debit card but I'll need id to pin that card.
On a side note there are many people I know who are on welfare who have never had photo id because for some it's too expensive, for others seems too complicated etc what are old people and beneficiaries who rely on cash going to do if more stores demand pay wave or card only. This could be really, really, really bad for some people.
Not under current laws in reality – you have to look at the differences between legal tender and refusing payment. See the arguments here (related to the 2006 change in currency).
The answer has greater theoretical than practical relevance.
While the seller (‘creditor‘ at this point) is not required to
accept the payment, the fact that a valid tender has been
made means that in refusing to accept it, the seller is barred
from recovering the debt in court. Therefore, in practical
terms, the creditor has little choice but to accept the legal
tender payment.
Of course if you’re paying in cash, usually the amounts are too small to go an argue this in court (basically lawyers are way more expensive).
On the other hand, the practical limitations of legal tender
should be acknowledged. It is always subject to the intention
of the parties, who may contract to receive payment in other
than legal tender. For larger transactions, the courts would be
likely to presume that the parties did not contemplate legal
tender. And where disputes arise over payment, members of
the public are likely to rely on pragmatic solutions, while the
formal rules underlying legal tender would rarely have any
bearing on the outcome.
While I haven’t bothered to look at your discussion or why this query was raised, but generally not accepting legal tender as payment leaves the refuser in an invidious position if there is a substantial stake involved. Used wisely, it would probably bolster any case where legal tender was proffered and refused because it would speak directly to the motivations of the refuser.
Not under current laws in reality – you have to look at the differences between legal tender and refusing payment. See the arguments here (related to the 2006 change in currency).
The answer has greater theoretical than practical relevance.
While the seller (‘creditor‘ at this point) is not required to
accept the payment, the fact that a valid tender has been
made means that in refusing to accept it, the seller is barred
from recovering the debt in court. Therefore, in practical
terms, the creditor has little choice but to accept the legal
tender payment.
Of course if you’re paying in cash, usually the amounts are too small to go an argue this in court (basically lawyers are way more expensive).
On the other hand, the practical limitations of legal tender
should be acknowledged. It is always subject to the intention
of the parties, who may contract to receive payment in other
than legal tender. For larger transactions, the courts would be
likely to presume that the parties did not contemplate legal
tender. And where disputes arise over payment, members of
the public are likely to rely on pragmatic solutions, while the
formal rules underlying legal tender would rarely have any
bearing on the outcome.
While I haven’t bothered to look at your discussion or why this query was raised. Generally not accepting legal tender as payment leaves the refuser in an invidious position if there is a substantial stake involved. Used wisely, it would probably bolster any case where legal tender was proffered and refused because it would speak directly to the motivations of the refuser. For instance and this has happened in cases of racial or sexual discrimination.
The old card cancelled after losing the wallet I presume.
Get what ID you can. Your IRD number would be good – better with a print out of your last years income off their site. That and historic statements of the account linked to the old card. Even a facebook page with your mug on it would help.
You have a better chance now than normally of them being helpful.
Thank you this is a good idea. I'll print out my old transactions. I'll also go in with my online banking logged in, proof of my address com services card a library card and ird
I was telling a UK pal about Aderns "keep faithful" line & my pal said Boris used the same term, I figured our Govts are talking and getting advice from eachother but that did make me chuckle. Also I figure places like Warehouse and retail are closing just because they're places where the public congregate, they said the same thing about playgrounds, so trade centres and mechanics (on skeleton crews) are ok, for now. I do hope this works.
I'm in an OK situation, the company I work for allowed me to take annual leave (I had a lot owing) for the lockdown, so I'm taking some good chill out time. I had the option of working from home, but wasn't really keen, thought it would be a big hassle.
We will get through this. I'm just worried about what is going to happen afterwards, and what services that Finance Minister Paul Goldsmith will cut next year if National wins the election.
This discussion is from a Twitter thread by Martin Kulldorff on 20 December 2020. He is a Professor at Harvard Medical School specialising in disease surveillance methods, infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety. His Twitter handle is @MartinKulldorff #1 Public health is about all health outcomes, not just a single ...
The Treasury forecasts suggest the economy is doing better than expected after the Covid Shock. John Kenneth Galbraith was wont to say that economic forecasting was designed to make astrology look good. Unfair, but it raises the question of the purpose of economic forecasts. Certainly the public may treat them ...
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Joe Biden seems to be everything that Donald Trump was not – decent, straightforward, considerate of others, mindful of his responsibilities – but none of that means that he has an easy path ahead of him. The pandemic still rages, American standing in the world is grievously low, and the ...
Keana VirmaniFrom healthcare robots to data privacy, to sea level rise and Antarctica under the ice: in the four years since its establishment, the Aotearoa New Zealand Science Journalism Fund has supported over 30 projects.Rebecca Priestley, receiving the PM Science Communication Prize (Photo by Mark Tantrum) Associate Professor ...
Nothing more from me today - I'm off to Wellington, to participate in the city's annual roleplaying convention (which has also eaten my time for the whole week, limiting blogging despite there being interesting things happening). Normal bloggage will resume Tuesday. ...
The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weaponscame into force today, making the development, possession, use or threat of use of nuclear weapons illegal in international law. Every nuclear-armed state is now a criminal regime. The corporations and scientists who design, build and maintain their illegal weapons are now ...
"Come The Revolution!" The key objective of Bernard Hickey’s revolutionary solution to the housing crisis is a 50 percent reduction in the price of the average family home. This will be achieved by the introduction of Capital Gains, Land, and Wealth taxes, and by the opening up of currently RMA-protected ...
by Daphna Whitmore Twitter and Facebook shutting down Trump’s accounts after his supporters stormed Capitol Hill is old news now but the debates continue over whether the actions against Trump are a good thing or not. Those in favour of banning Trump say Twitter and Facebook are private companies and ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Democrats now control the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives for the first time in a decade, albeit with razor thin Congressional majorities. The last time, in the 111th Congress (2009-2011), House Democrats passed a carbon cap and trade bill, but it died ...
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Last night I stayed up till 3am just to see then-President Donald Trump leave the White House, get on a plane, and fly off to Florida, hopefully never to return. And when I woke up this morning, America was different. Not perfect, because it never was. Probably not even good, ...
Watching today’s inauguration of Joe Biden as the United States’ 46th president, there’s not a lot in common with the inauguration of Donald Trump just four destructive years ago. Where Trump warned of carnage, Biden dared to hope for unity and decency. But the one place they converge is that ...
Dan FalkBritons who switched on their TVs to “Good Morning Britain” on the morning of Sept. 15, 2020, were greeted by news not from our own troubled world, but from neighboring Venus. Piers Morgan, one of the hosts, was talking about a major science story that had surfaced the ...
Sara LutermanGrowing up autistic in a non-autistic world can be very isolating. We are often strange and out of sync with peers, despite our best efforts. Autistic adults have, until very recently, been largely absent from media and the public sphere. Finding role models is difficult. Finding useful advice ...
Doug JohnsonThe alien-like blooms and putrid stench of Amorphophallus titanum, better known as the corpse flower, draw big crowds and media coverage to botanical gardens each year. In 2015, for instance, around 75,000 people visited the Chicago Botanic Garden to see one of their corpse flowers bloom. More than ...
Getting to Browser Tab Zero so I can reboot the computer is awfully hard when the one open tab is a Table of Contents for the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, and every issue has more stuff I want to read. A few highlights: Gugler et al demonstrating ...
Timothy Ford, University of Massachusetts Lowell and Charles M. Schweik, University of Massachusetts AmherstTo mitigate health inequities and promote social justice, coronavirus vaccines need to get to underserved populations and hard-to-reach communities. There are few places in the U.S. that are unreachable by road, but other factors – many ...
Israel chose to pay a bit over the odds for the Pfizer vaccine to get earlier access. Here’s The Times of Israel from 16 November. American government will be charged $39 for each two-shot dose, and the European bloc even less, but Jerusalem said to agree to pay $56. Israel ...
Orla is a gender critical Marxist in Ireland. She gave a presentation on 15 January 2021 on the connection between postmodern/transgender identity politics and the current attacks on democratic and free speech rights. Orla has been active previously in the Irish Socialist Workers Party and the People Before Profit electoral ...
. . America: The Empire Strikes Back (at itself) Further to my comments in the first part of 2020: The History That Was, the following should be considered regarding the current state of the US. They most likely will be by future historians pondering the critical decades of ...
Nathaniel ScharpingIn March, as the Covid-19 pandemic began to shut down major cities in the U.S., researchers were thinking about blood. In particular, they were worried about the U.S. blood supply — the millions of donations every year that help keep hospital patients alive when they need a transfusion. ...
Sarah L Caddy, University of CambridgeVaccines are a marvel of medicine. Few interventions can claim to have saved as many lives. But it may surprise you to know that not all vaccines provide the same level of protection. Some vaccines stop you getting symptomatic disease, but others stop you ...
Back in 2016, the Portuguese government announced plans to stop burning coal by 2030. But progress has come much quicker, and they're now scheduled to close their last coal plant by the end of this year: The Sines coal plant in Portugal went offline at midnight yesterday evening (14 ...
The Sincerest Form Of Flattery: As anybody with the intestinal fortitude to brave the commentary threads of local news-sites, large and small, will attest, the number of Trump-supporting New Zealanders is really quite astounding. IT’S SO DIFFICULT to resist the temptation to be smug. From the distant perspective of New Zealand, ...
RNZ reports on continued arbitrariness on decisions at the border. British comedian Russell Howard is about to tour New Zealand and other acts allowed in through managed isolation this summer include drag queen RuPaul and musicians at Northern Bass in Mangawhai and the Bay Dreams festival. The vice-president of the ...
As families around the world mourn more than two million people dead from Covid-19, the Plan B academics and their PR industry collaborator continue to argue that the New Zealand government should stop focusing on our managed isolation and quarantine system and instead protect the elderly so that they can ...
A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Jan 10, 2021 through Sat, Jan 16, 2021Editor's ChoiceNASA says 2020 tied for hottest year on record — here’s what you can do to helpPhoto by Michael Held on Unsplash ...
Health authorities in Norway are reporting some concerns about deaths in frail elderly after receiving their COVID-19 vaccine. Is this causally related to the vaccine? Probably not but here are the things to consider. According to the news there have been 23 deaths in Norway shortly after vaccine administration and ...
Happy New Year! No, experts are not concerned that “…one of New Zealand’s COIVD-1( vaccines will fail to protect the country” Here is why. But first I wish to issue an expletive about this journalism (First in Australia and then in NZ). It exhibits utter failure to actually truly consult ...
All nations have shadows; some acknowledge them. For others they shape their image in uncomfortable ways.The staunch Labour supporter was in despair at what her Rogernomics Government was doing. But she finished ‘at least, we got rid of Muldoon’, a response which tells us that then, and today, one’s views ...
Grigori GuitchountsIn November, Springer Nature, one of the world’s largest publishers of scientific journals, made an attention-grabbing announcement: More than 30 of its most prestigious journals, including the flagship Nature, will now allow authors to pay a fee of US$11,390 to make their papers freely available for anyone to read ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Gary Yohe, Henry Jacoby, Richard Richels, and Benjamin Santer Imagine a major climate change law passing the U.S. Congress unanimously? Don’t bother. It turns out that you don’t need to imagine it. Get this: The Global Change Research Act of 1990 was passed ...
“They’re here already! You’re next! You’re next! You’re next!”WHO CAN FORGET the penultimate scene of the 1956 movie classic, Invasion of the Body Snatchers? The wild-eyed doctor, stumbling down the highway, trying desperately to warn his fellow citizens: “They’re here already! You’re next! You’re next! You’re next!”Ostensibly science-fiction, the movie ...
TheOneRing.Net has got its paws on the official synopsis of the upcoming Amazon Tolkien TV series. It’s a development that brings to mind the line about Sauron deliberately releasing Gollum from the dungeons of Barad-dûr. Amazon knew exactly what they were doing here, in terms of drumming up publicity: ...
Since Dwight Eisenhower’s inauguration in 1953, US presidents have joined an informal club intended to provide support - and occasionally rivalry - between those few who have been ‘leaders of the free world’. Donald Trump, elected on a promise to ‘drain the swamp’ and a constant mocker of his predecessors, ...
For over a decade commentators have noted the rise of a new brand of explicitly ideological politics throughout the world. By this they usually refer to the re-emergence of national populism and avowedly illiberal approaches to governance throughout the “advanced” democratic community, but they also extend the thought to the ...
The US House of Representatives has just impeached Donald Trump, giving him the dubious honour of being the only US President to be impeached twice. Ten Republicans voted for impeachement, making it the most bipartisan impeachment ever. The question now is whether the Senate will rise to the occasion, and ...
Kieren Mitchell; Alice Mouton, Université de Liège; Angela Perri, Durham University, and Laurent Frantz, Ludwig Maximilian University of MunichThanks to the hit television series Game of Thrones, the dire wolf has gained a near-mythical status. But it was a real animal that roamed the Americas for at least 250,000 ...
Tide of tidal data rises Having cast our own fate to include rising sea level, there's a degree of urgency in learning the history of mean sea level in any given spot, beyond idle curiosity. Sea level rise (SLR) isn't equal from one place to another and even at a particular ...
Well, some of those chickens sure came home bigly, didn’t they… and proceeded to shit all over the nice carpet in the Capitol. What we were seeing here are societal forces that have long had difficulty trying to reconcile people to the “idea” of America and the reality of ...
In the wake of Donald Trump's incitement of an assault on the US capitol, Twitter finally enforced its terms of service and suspended his account. They've since followed that up with action against prominent QAnon accounts and Trumpers, including in New Zealand. I'm not unhappy with this: Trump regularly violated ...
Peter S. Ross, University of British ColumbiaThe Arctic has long proven to be a barometer of the health of our planet. This remote part of the world faces unprecedented environmental assaults, as climate change and industrial chemicals threaten a way of life for Inuit and other Indigenous and northern ...
Susan St John makes the case for taxing a deemed rate of return on excessive real estate holdings (after a family home exemption), to redirect scarce housing resources to where they are needed most. Read the full article here ...
I’m less than convinced by arguments that platforms like Twitter should be subject to common carrier regulation preventing them from being able to decide who to keep on as clients of their free services, and who they would not like to serve. It’s much easier to create competition for the ...
The hypocritical actions of political leaders throughout the global Covid pandemic have damaged public faith in institutions and governance. Liam Hehir chronicles the way in which contemporary politicians have let down the public, and explains how real leadership means walking the talk. During the Blitz, when German bombs were ...
Over the years, we've published many rebuttals, blog posts and graphics which came about due to direct interactions with the scientists actually carrying out the underlying research or being knowledgable about a topic in general. We'll highlight some of these interactions in this blog post. We'll start with two memorable ...
Yesterday we had the unseemly sight of a landleech threatening to keep his houses empty in response to better tenancy laws. Meanwhile in Catalonia they have a solution for that: nationalisation: Barcelona is deploying a new weapon in its quest to increase the city’s available rental housing: the power ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Jeff Masters, PhD The 2020 global wildfire season brought extreme fire activity to the western U.S., Australia, the Arctic, and Brazil, making it the fifth most expensive year for wildfire losses on record. The year began with an unprecedented fire event ...
NOTE: This is an excerpt from a digital story – read the full story here.Tess TuxfordKo te Kauri Ko Au, Ko te Au ko Kauri I am the kauri, the kauri is me Te Roroa proverb In Waipoua Forest, at the top of the North Island, New ...
Story of the Week... Toon of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Poster of the Week... SkS Week in Review... Story of the Week... Coming attraction: IPCC's upcoming major climate assessmentLook for more emphasis on 'solutions,' efforts by cities, climate equity ... and outlook for emissions cuts in ...
Ringing A Clear Historical Bell: The extraordinary images captured in and around the US Capitol Building on 6 January 2021 mirror some of the worst images of America's past.THERE IS A SCENE in the 1982 movie Missing which has remained with me for nearly 40 years. Directed by the Greek-French ...
To impact or not to impeach? I understand why some of those who are justifiably aghast at Trump’s behaviour over recent days might still counsel against impeaching him for a second time. To impeach him, they argue, would run the risk of making him a martyr in the eyes of ...
The Capitol Building, Washington DC, Wednesday, 6 January 2021. Oh come, my little one, come.The day is almost done.Be at my side, behold the sightOf evening on the land.The life, my love, is hardAnd heavy is my heart.How should I live if you should leaveAnd we should be apart?Come, let me ...
A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Jan 3, 2021 through Sat, Jan 9, 2021Editor's ChoiceAfter the Insurrection: Accountability, Reform, and the Science of Democracy The poisonous lies and enablers of sedition--including Senator Hawley, pictured ...
This article, guest authored by Prof. Angela Gallego-Sala & Dr. Julie Loisel, was originally published on the Carbon Brief website on Dec 21, 2020. It is reposted below in its entirety. Click here to access the original article and comments. Peatlands Peatlands are ecosystems unlike any other. Perpetually saturated, their ...
The assault on the US Capitol and constitutional crisis that it has caused was telegraphed, predictable and yet unexpected and confusing. There are several subplots involved: whether the occupation of the Michigan State House in May was a trial run for the attacks on Congress; whether people involved in the ...
On Christmas Eve, child number 1 spotted a crack in a window. It’s a double-glazed window, and inspection showed that the small, horizontal crack was in the outermost pane. It was perpendicular to the frame, about three-quarters of the way up one side. The origins are a mystery. It MIGHT ...
Anne-Marie Broudehoux, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)Will the COVID-19 pandemic prompt a shift to healthier cities that focus on wellness rather than functional and economic concerns? This is a hypothesis that seems to be supported by several researchers around the world. In many ways, containment and physical distancing ...
A growing public housing waiting list and continued increase of house prices must be urgently addressed by Government, Green Party Co-leader Marama Davidson said today. ...
[Opening comments, welcome and thank you to Auckland University etc] It is a great pleasure to be here this afternoon to celebrate such an historic occasion - the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. This is a moment many feared would never come, but ...
The Government is providing $3 million in one-off seed funding to help disabled people around New Zealand stay connected and access support in their communities, Minister for Disability Issues, Carmel Sepuloni announced today. The funding will allow disability service providers to develop digital and community-based solutions over the next two ...
Border workers in quarantine facilities will be offered voluntary daily COVID-19 saliva tests in addition to their regular weekly testing, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. This additional option will be rolled out at the Jet Park Quarantine facility in Auckland starting on Monday 25 January, and then to ...
The next steps in the Government’s ambitious firearms reform programme to include a three-month buy-back have been announced by Police Minister Poto Williams today. “The last buy-back and amnesty was unprecedented for New Zealand and was successful in collecting 60,297 firearms, modifying a further 5,630 firearms, and collecting 299,837 prohibited ...
The Government has released its Public Housing Plan 2021-2024 which outlines the intention of where 8,000 additional public and transitional housing places announced in Budget 2020, will go. “The Government is committed to continuing its public house build programme at pace and scale. The extra 8,000 homes – 6000 public ...
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has congratulated President Joe Biden on his inauguration as the 46th President of the United States of America. “I look forward to building a close relationship with President Biden and working with him on issues that matter to both our countries,” Jacinda Ardern said. “New Zealand ...
A major investment to tackle wilding pines in Mt Richmond will create jobs and help protect the area’s unique ecosystems, Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor says. The Mt Richmond Forest Park has unique ecosystems developed on mineral-rich geology, including taonga plant species found nowhere else in the country. “These special plant ...
To further protect New Zealand from COVID-19, the Government is extending pre-departure testing to all passengers to New Zealand except from Australia, Antarctica and most Pacific Islands, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The change will come into force for all flights arriving in New Zealand after 11:59pm (NZT) on Monday ...
Bay Conservation Cadets launched with first intake Supported with $3.5 million grant Part of $1.245b Jobs for Nature programme to accelerate recover from Covid Cadets will learn skills to protect and enhance environment Environment Minister David Parker today welcomed the first intake of cadets at the launch of the Bay ...
The Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern and the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands Mark Brown have announced passengers from the Cook Islands can resume quarantine-free travel into New Zealand from 21 January, enabling access to essential services such as health. “Following confirmation of the Cook Islands’ COVID ...
Jobs for Nature funding is being made available to conservation groups and landowners to employ staff and contractors in a move aimed at boosting local biodiversity-focused projects, Conservation Minister Kiritapu Allan has announced. It is estimated some 400-plus jobs will be created with employment opportunities in ecology, restoration, trapping, ...
The Government has approved an exception class for 1000 international tertiary students, degree level and above, who began their study in New Zealand but were caught offshore when border restrictions began. The exception will allow students to return to New Zealand in stages from April 2021. “Our top priority continues ...
Today’s deal between Meridian and Rio Tinto for the Tiwai smelter to remain open another four years provides time for a managed transition for Southland. “The deal provides welcome certainty to the Southland community by protecting jobs and incomes as the region plans for the future. The Government is committed ...
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has appointed Anna Curzon to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). The leader of each APEC economy appoints three private sector representatives to ABAC. ABAC provides advice to leaders annually on business priorities. “ABAC helps ensure that APEC’s work programme is informed by business community perspectives ...
The Government’s prudent fiscal management and strong policy programme in the face of the COVID-19 global pandemic have been acknowledged by the credit rating agency Fitch. Fitch has today affirmed New Zealand’s local currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook and foreign currency rating at AA with a positive ...
The Government is putting in place a suite of additional actions to protect New Zealand from COVID-19, including new emerging variants, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Given the high rates of infection in many countries and evidence of the global spread of more transmissible variants, it’s clear that ...
$36 million of Government funding alongside councils and others for 19 projects Investment will clean up and protect waterways and create local jobs Boots on the ground expected in Q2 of 2021 Funding part of the Jobs for Nature policy package A package of 19 projects will help clean up ...
The commemoration of the 175th anniversary of the Battle of Ruapekapeka represents an opportunity for all New Zealanders to reflect on the role these conflicts have had in creating our modern nation, says Associate Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Kiri Allan. “The Battle at Te Ruapekapeka Pā, which took ...
Babies born with tongue-tie will be assessed and treated consistently under new guidelines released by the Ministry of Health, Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Around 5% to 10% of babies are born with a tongue-tie, or ankyloglossia, in New Zealand each year. At least half can ...
At an antagonistic hearing yesterday, the internet giant laid out the ‘worst case scenario’. And Facebook is also considering an ‘amputation’. Hal Crawford was watching.Google is poised to hit self-destruct in Australia according to a fractious Senate hearing into an unprecedented law that will force digital giants to pay money ...
It’s great to hear Phil Twyford celebrating a success. Not a personal ministerial success, it’s fair to say, but a success nevertheless related to arms control. The arms on which Twyford is focused, it should be noted, will make quite a mess if they are triggered. They tend to be ...
Duncan Greive and Leonie Hayden were young hip hop heads and music journalists during the era captured in a new documentary about the rise and fall of South Auckland hip hop label Dawn Raid. Here they discuss the film and their memories (what’s left of them) of that time. Warning: contains ...
Houses might be the most popular and inflated purchases in New Zealand, but there are plenty of other products that are seeing soaring demand and prices over the past few months. Here’s a list of what New Zealanders are spending their money on with international travel out of the picture.Used ...
"The young boy leaps, the muscles in his thighs tensing and twisting as he lifts from the handrail": the noble art of bombing, by Pātea writer Airana Ngarewa A beautifully muscled boy is posted on the side of a pool, his feet fixed to the top of a pair of ...
How Waiwera Hot Pools went from New Zealand’s most visited water park to dereliction and decay. Many who grew up in Auckland likely have fond memories of Waiwera Hot Pools. Like me, they remember summer days spent racing down the slides and playing in the naturally hot pools. But how did ...
A government contract for a P rehab programme was canned after half a million dollars of taxpayer money was given out. Aaron Smale investigates. The Ministry of Health spent over half a million dollars on a P Rehab contract before pulling the pin because there were no results or progress reports. ...
Kia Koropp and her husband John Daubeny have been cruising the Pacific, Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean over the past decade with their two children onboard their 50ft yacht, Atea. Starting in 2011 from Auckland, New Zealand, they have sailed more than 64,000 kilometres and just completed their longest ...
We are drowning out the natural world with synthetic sounds, and it’s getting worse, writes Michelle Langstone.It used to be quiet once. Remember that? Remember the hush that settled over the cities like the silence that comes down in a snowstorm? It’s less than a year since Aotearoa first locked ...
Summer reissue: Join Michèle A’Court, Alex Casey and Leonie Hayden in the latest episode of On the Rag as they examine the topic of boobs from every possible angle. First published November 16, 2020.Independent journalism depends on you. Help us stay curious in 2021. The Spinoff’s journalism is funded by its ...
Seventy-five years after the US detonated the first nuclear tests in the Pacific, New Zealand pledges its support to Joe Biden's first tentative step towards disarmament. Today, the United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons comes into effect, making it illegal for New Zealand and the 50 other ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Terry, Professor of Psychology, University of Southern Queensland The challenge of bringing the world’s best tennis players and support staff, about 1,200 people in all, from COVID-ravaged parts of the world to our almost pandemic-free shores was always going to be ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Geoffrey Browne, Research Fellow in International Urban Development, University of Melbourne The Victorian government has committed to removing 75 road/rail level crossings across Melbourne by 2025. That’s the fastest rate of removal in the city’s history. The scale of the investment — ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW In an age of hyperpartisan politics, the Biden presidency offers a welcome centrism that might help bridge the divides. But it is also Biden’s economic centrism that offers a chance to cut through what has become ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Stevens, Lecturer in History, University of Waikato In a year of surprises, one of the more pleasant was the recent runaway viral popularity of 19th century sea shanties on TikTok. A collaborative global response to pandemic isolation, it saw singers and ...
The sudden departure of Graine Moss from her Chief Executive role at Oranga Tamariki is a vital first step in a sequence of changes that must take place at the Ministry according to a group of wahine Māori leaders. Dame Naida Glavish, Dame Tariana Turia, ...
A new poem from Dunedin poet Jenny Powell.Her uncle’s eyeShe introduced us to her uncle’s eye floating in a jar.Lost in an accident, he hadn’t wanted to lose it again. He left it to her in his will.We must have looked shocked. ‘Don’t worry,’ she said. ‘I turn him to ...
The chief executive of Oranga Tamariki is quitting, leaving behind an agency she’s admitted suffers from structural racism. Justin Giovannetti looks at the future of Oranga Tamariki.Grainne Moss’s tenure as head of Oranga Tamariki has been untenable since November when the government’s senior Māori minister wouldn’t express any confidence in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Sainsbury, Senior Lecturer Composition, Australian National University Despite having different cultural backgrounds and experiences — Indigenous composers with an Indigenous mentor, and a pianist descended from Anglo-colonial history — it is nevertheless possible to create a project that can serve as ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Plank, Professor in Applied Mathematics, University of Canterbury With new, more infectious variants of COVID-19 detected around the world, and at New Zealand’s border, the risk of further level 3 or 4 lockdowns is increased if those viruses get into the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Hogg, Lecturer in Psychology, Charles Sturt University Horse racing is an ethical hotbed in Australia. The Melbourne Cup alone has seen seven horses die after racing since 2013, and animal cruelty protesters have become a common feature at carnivals. The latest ...
Right now, our most fiery national debate is over whether New Zealanders were nice to the singer Amanda Palmer in a café. Desperate to restore peace in our nation, Hayden Donnell went in search of the truth.Joe Biden had barely finished calling for unity when Amanda Palmer posted a tweet ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 When We Cease to Understand the World by Benjamin Labatut (Pushkin Press, $37)Maths, cyanide, suicide, gardening; ye ...
Wellington artist Estère isn’t just breaking boundaries, she’s dissecting them. Maddi Rowe spoke to her about her new album, Archetypes.“That’s the story of pelicans, they’ll stab themselves in the heart to feed their young.”Despite the somewhat dark subject matter, Estère Dalton’s eyes sparkle with fascination. We’ve met to discuss Archetypes, ...
Cycling advocates are welcoming new advice from the Transport Agency on safe cycling. "Cyclists hate it when drivers pass too close. That's scary and dangerous," said Patrick Morgan from Cycling Action Network. "So it's encouraging to see ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tilman Ruff, Honorary Principal Fellow, School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne Today, many around the world will celebrate the first multilateral nuclear disarmament treaty to enter into force in 50 years. The UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear ...
The Public Service Association welcomes the creation of a Chief Executive role to lead the public service’s pay equity work, and the appointment of Grainne Moss to this position. "Unions and public service employers are currently working ...
The Council of Trade Unions is warning that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures out today illustrate that the cost of living is increasing disproportionately for those on lower incomes; resulting in the poor getting poorer. CTU Economist Craig ...
Why are there so many offensive comments on the New Zealand Police Facebook page and are they breaking the law? Janaye Henry investigates. New Zealand Police Facebook pages – there are a number of them, for different regional police districts around the country – are an interesting place to spend ...
Our guide to stopping procrastinating and actually (finally) getting on top of investing. Because there’s a good chance that if you’re reading this, you don’t know a single thing about it.In part one, we covered some of the basic things you need to know about investing – why do it? ...
Children’s Commissioner Andrew Becroft acknowledges the huge effort and commitment of departing Oranga Tamariki Chief Executive Grainne Moss and says her decision to resign today was principled. “The issues facing Oranga Tamariki are beyond individual ...
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Two Large Waves versus One Tsunami. Chart by Keith Rankin. Two Large Waves versus One Tsunami. Chart by Keith Rankin. With Covid19, Italy shows the classic European pattern, with its early outbreak, substantial recovery thanks to lockdowns and other public health measures, and resurgence thanks to complacency ...
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I hope there are going to be further assistance announcements shortly.
I'm pretty concerned about consumer debt, there are thousands of people with credit cards, car finance and the like that they are not going to be able to service. These are the people that will get absolutely buried in fees, penalties, repossessions etc in short order and credit histories destroyed.
Really hoping this will be addressed.
On a positive note a friends landlord has said that given the mortgage holiday they will cut the rent over the shutdown to just enough cover rates insurances etc. Hope all landlords are acting this way.
how does the mortgage holiday work?
Banker here. Standard practise- what you would pay in interest is put onto your loan balance each month/fortnight/week. You then end up paying interest on your interest.
Great for short term cashflow. Horrible things for anything longer than 3-6 months.
We have been told to approve without any credit assessment for anyone asking for help due to the Covid situation.
Holiday is a bit of a misnomer then.
It does explain why amongst other reasons landlords won't want to ease up on rents, although those that can should.
It would be similar for businesses – government may front (interest free from the QE) loans for them to pay rent (for a month, 3 or 6 etc). But the businesses (those that survive) pay it back later.
For residential rents, it's more complicated.
There is income support to those who lose jobs (but not enough to cover their rent). Maybe all those who go onto income support should be able to evidence their circumstance to both
1. qualify the landlord for banker relief
2. reduce their rent payment to 50%. (with capacity to have this paid by government where even this caused hardship – outright or via interest free loan).
latest statement I saw had interest holiday as well…so no accumulated interest but banks will contact customers direct in next couyple of days with details
That's nice for those particular tenants but this is not a requirement so nearly no landlords will follow suit.
They are simply not built that way.
So we going to suspend capitalist economics from Wednesday , how about we just change the economy instead of reviving this corporate capitalist mess after this is over.
I'll second that. Crystal too.
So even Muller and the DOJ now agrees the whole Russians meddling in the election – was horse shit.
https://www.informationliberation.com/?id=61313
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/doj-moves-to-drop-charges-ira-russians-indicted-mueller-2020-3?r=US&IR=T
Well, no, that's not what your links say at all. Certainly no quotes to that effect.
And if I were in a conspiracist frame of mind, rather than saying it was bullshit I'd suggest that dolt45's AG has merely protected people who played a significant part in getting the fool elected.
Yup. I saw the charges against the Internet Research Agency were dropped like hot potatoes when they said they'd turn up to court. Pity. It would have been fun to hear prosecution arguments on how Jesus Masturbation memes on fb turned people to vote Trump….or Buff Bernie memes turned people off Clinton ..or, seeing as how the bulk of money spent by the IRA was spent after the election, how those ads managed to act backwards through space and time 🙂
The buff bernie memes are so bad, done by 2 year old nephew. I didn't even recognise it was bernie till someone pointed it out.
Watched an interesting youtube commentary that leaned on info compiled by COVID Act Now that was created by a team of data scientists, engineers, and designers in partnership with epidemiologists, public health officials, and political leaders to help understand how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect their region.
Make of it what you will, but it strikes me as level headed. I
Its focus is the USA, but a bit that pertains to here is on containment strategies. Essentially (or apparently), unless there is a Wuhan type containment strategy or a "Shelter in Place" strategy – which is kind of what NZ is doing (though you might say we're tilting a more towards Wuhan type containment) , then infection rates are reckoned to be over 70%. (That's for doing nothing and basic social distancing)
The modeling covers 8 weeks Wuhan type containment and 12 weeks Shelter in Place.
Here are the spread rates for the two scenarios.
Wuhan R0 assumptions: 1.3 for 1 week, 0.3 for 5 weeks, 0.2 for 1 week, 0.035 for 1 week.
Shelter in Place R0 assumptions: 1.3 for 4 weeks, 1.1 for 4 weeks, 0.8 for 4 weeks.
If the modeling is reasonable, then there's no way level 4 containment is going to be lifted after 4 weeks (though I guess it might be lifted in places and re-imposed etc)
Like I say, it’s an interesting read for those with a head for it. Recommended.
min of 12 weeks is my guess. it would make sense.
I'm guessing 12 weeks if everyone sticks to the game plan. I don't expect everyone to stick to the game plan though.
And I wish the foresight was there to shut supermarkets to the public where possible. Let local dairies use them as warehouse supply nodes.
That way, any outbreak is much more likely to be very local – eg, limited to people who had gone to the local dairy as opposed to the far wider geographical and populous area of those who had hit the supermarket.
from what i understand that if you get it mildly two – three weeks, but even after that you might still shed the virus.
if you get it hard case you might need treatment up to six weeks, with a long recovery period at home and a chance of long lasting lung damage.
So take the current situation, if we were all to stay the f at home as we supposed to, within ten to fourteen days we would know where all the sick people and carriers are.
they then need another two to twelve weeks to get back on their feet.
so twelve weeks. Goes hand in hand with what China experienced, and in saying that one of the Parliament Critters from Taiwan announced a 'second' wave coming as people are not 'social distancing'.
It matters little if you go to the supermarket, the dairy, the market or if you partner is an essential services. Its an aggressive virus, it transmits easily, and the question for all of us not IF we get it but rather When.
The best they can do is limit the numbers of people in shops according to shop size, have people cover their hair, wear a mask, gloves, and goggles if need be. do their shopping, pay at the self check out and all the shop staff does is wipe everything down with high grade cleaning products.
Our best hope is really that they will get quick tests in fast for all, and then keep testing people daily / weekly what ever until they find a. treatment, b. vaccine.
Its gonna be a long 2 years.
the question for all of us not IF we get it but rather When.
That had been my basic understanding – ie, about 70% of us would get hit over time, and the concern was to avoid everyone getting it in a short period of time and tanking health services and undertakers (basically).
However. (And, I mean, this just leads me to say "dunno") According to what I'm taking as a level headed take on stuff from this link (randomly landed on figures for Kansas – which seems appropriate 🙂 ), the measures NZ has in place can result in a hit rate of as low as 3%.
compare NZ to my home country Germany.
Germany 88 million people and a transit country. I.e. people from the rest of europe driving through, stopping gassing up, eating, shopping etc etc etc. Massive issue.
NZ. 4.5 million, close the airports, only open to repatriate tourists, and to let kiwis come back. Quarantine set up at the Airport, set up by the Army manned with Army doctors/nurses etc, plus the country on look down. And you pretty much only have 4.5 million to worry about.
We are in a remarkably good position to weather this with a low death toll, if people can stay at home. And that means no evictions, no foreclosures, etc etc etc and frankly i have yet to see the government really do something to make sure that ALL of Kiwis get to keep their house, not only the richest one.
But hey, i must be whinging.
But hey, i must be whinging.
lol
Well, as a renter, I thought it jolly spiffing that mortgage holders got a six month holiday (or some such). Not so jolly spiffing for the mum and her 7 year old who got evicted this morning. (Normality persists for some)
And as a Sick Ben (fucked if I know the 'new' label they applied to folk like me a few years back), I appreciate the opportunity for exercise being afforded me by not receiving any extra monies before this Wednesday.
So happy to not have a problem of making space in my tiny kitchen for extra food items. And thrilled that I get to pay internet and electricity and rent just like before.
Yup. Thankfully, I get to hang on to poor "normal" while the unfortunate, home 'owning' middle classes are no doubt going to be traumatized by the relief measures heading their way 🙂
again, its businesses that have an anual turnover of 250.000 and 80million that can apply. You know. Not all mortgage owner are equal either. Me and my micro business certainly don't apply, nor the dude that has a 70.000 or less income and a wife and three kids. WE so far got fuck all.
And the really small businesses are told to go to the bank for a loan. But to be fair when the local Labour Wanabe gonna come collect 'donations and votes' for their elections, i will tell them exactly that…..go to the bank for a loan.:)
Ahh, well i can't wait to cast my vote for a third party. 🙂
NZ. 4.5 million
At least 5 million counting our remaining residual transient tourists. Based on December 2019 being 4,951,500
But yes we are lucky, and yes, the main focus of support has been on employment directly or indirectly because that is how about 90% of the country makes its living.
So far I have yet to see you describe how you'd have done it differently.
If I understand the deal with the 'retail' banks, they are now targeting SME's with support provided they can show that they were solvent prior to December 31st.
In the meantime, I'm going to concentrate more on those who aren't likely to lose their house but are more likely to actually go homeless in an environment where there are no new jobs.
I have actually said very early on, some 6 – 8 weeks ago thatwe need a
mortgage / lease/ rent/ bill holiday for the duration of the shut down, for all. small and large businesses. By governmental degree. I have linked to several articles of countries that are doing this, Italy being one of the first todo so.
The main issue is that we need to keep people at home. We can't do that if they have bills to pay and can't keep up paying without money. Anyone who has will try to be essential services, it does not matter what hey do. And thus the disease will spread.
It is quite nice for the government to pay wage subsidies to companies large enough that hey can ride out the storm. However for businesses taht are not that big, don't have the big money behind them and need actual cashflow for monthly bills and overheads it means nothing. It would have been easier for the government to allow small businesses to let go of its staff early on and offer unemployement for the workers, coupled with heating assistance, food assistance, accom benefit to make up to the 80% of min wage as it does via the wage subsidy. As we will hire our staff back once we can work. As it is, my staff will get some money for twelve weeks and then she will go on the unemployment benefit as there are chances that i will have to default on lease and overhead payments.
Personally i am with bill, the easiest way wold have been to instruct IRD to send every adult of NZ a check of say 800 – 1000 per week. This would be enough in most cases to at least cover rent/food/utilites. No applying simply send out the check. The IRD should be set up for it as they already do that for tax refunds.
Next they could have cancelled the end of year/GST returns until say August. Non of that we will wave late payment fees. AS if any of us have the mind to do a stock take and fill out forms, specially when we are in lock down. And again, non of us make money so we don't have money even with the higher thresholds. So cancel provisional tax completly and let businesses keep that money.
Next they could have offered Goverment loans – this could have been done via WINZ – call them 'hardship' loans to businesses like mine. I don't mind taking out a loan, but i mind taking out a loan at standard interest rate because the government is not negotiating with the bank for us and thus even a small loan will be very expensive and hard if not impossible to repay. So a government loan with no repayments for say 4 – 6 month (depending on how long we may not be able to work) and then set the repayment rates according to business turn over.
So far we have paid subsidies to some of the biggest companies in nz, many whom are very actively avoiding paying taxes in the first place. now we are offering companies a mortgage holiday – but only if they are over 250.000 anual turn over or more. Instead we should have made it illegal for any evictions for the next 5 month.
We should have made it illegal for companies to cut of utilities.
My partner is the only income we now have – and he is a standard income waged worker, and he is essential service – so will be out and about fixing computers in banks and super market check outs and the likes and if he falls ill or worse dies, i will be homeless. Because i will have no way to generate an income. And there are many like me. a few tens of thousands. But its ok. I am just whinging.
We seem to have no issue asking for solidarity from those that have everything to lose yet we ask nothing from those that hoard money, houses, boats and the likes.
We woke up 2 x lump sum wage subsidy in our account this morning, for a couple who run a tourist retail gallery. One of our artists got a payment in his account too.
Apply, you'll get it.
If you've got a recent lease on an ADLS form there's a clause that covers this situation as a result of the Christchurch earthquake debacle. Look up 27.5 and 27.6, No Access in Emergency. Essentially rent ceases to be payable if a competent authority deems you cannot occupy the premises. If the lease is older than 2012 this may not apply and I gather this is what government is moving on in coming days.
In an earthquake or other damage scenarios the landlord would be able to claim on their insurance to recover the rent, but in the current situation the will most likely be an exclusion for pandemics. Hence Robertson said the other day that something was coming up regarding commercial leases, not doing something is going to get messy, and it'll be all the way up the chain to the big corporate retailers and others that have to close.
I'm eagerly awaiting details of the mortgage / loan repayment holiday too, that will be handy for cashflow, even if it's just kicking the can down the road.
Evidently some of the larger landlords around Queenstown are offering their tenants rent holidays, so they may have knowledge that they will get it back from somewhere.
we have applied, we have so far received nothing. mind winz will be over run with applications.
i am eagerly awaiting anything the government has to offer. And i know quite a few people here in Rotorua that are also worried witless.
Mostly i am worried for my partner. He will be out there working and we are in a two bedroom unit and its gonna be hell to quarantine either of us if we have/get the flu.
i am however over with the bail outs for the very rich. At the very least there should be some strings attached to the aid the receive, like paying taxes.
My tenants (while I was making sure that they weren’t going to have issues) said that their mate, a self-employed tradie, just got $12k in his bank account, meant to help cover 12 weeks of corona revenue drop (presumably in the past). I didn’t go into it further than that.
you might find this interesting.
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/817974987/every-single-individual-must-stay-home-italy-s-coronavirus-deaths-pass-china-s
a lot of my friends in the US also complained about the weirdest flu ever, hard hacking cough, no energy, fever every now and then, feeling weak and tired etc – which if you don't get the oxygen you need is what you would be feeling like. The only difference between the US and Italy, In Italy if you are ill you go to the doctor, in the US you take a pill.
It wouldn’t surprise me that there are bugs circulating. When they go retrospectively go through the biopsies and autopsy data at a genetic level then the origin will probably become pretty apparent.
However the basic issue is that history shows that the over-inflated human population has to be pretty damn careful of animal contacts. There has been a pretty clear species jump showing in origin morphology of all of the major pandemics of the last 2000 years where we have some reasonable histories. Often this is morphed into the human reservoir issue where a population get immune to a disease but acts as a carrier to another population.
It isn’t like we have the other major human reservoirs to uncap.
What we have left are animal population reservoirs and the unproven (but possible) ancient disease reservoirs (ie ones that show up in ice, but are not evident in any current population).
What I’m arguing is the we really need start focusing more closely at the sources of outbreaks. From HIV to Ebola to recent corona viruses we’re now routinely seeing cross-species infections.
Sabine
Then again, maybe evictions sometimes happen for a reason.
Maybe they save lives.
https://subzpsubzp.blogspot.com/
how many of violent sadistic state house tenants are there in NZ? i did not read any further. Also i don’t like the picture of the dog. Its a good doggo and his images is used to show a violent sadistic state house tenant?
More than a few if my Parents' area is anything to go by. Some really violent, anti-social, out-of-control people moving in (over last 4 or 5 years) to what was always a wonderful, peaceful, socially-mixed & community-minded street. Corollary of the move towards almost exclusively allocating to the severely problematic end of the Underclass.
Pompous affluent Luvvies, of course, get to ostentatiously virtue-signal & paternalistically romanticise in order to enhance their own social prestige & assuage their own guilt without ever doing one friggin iota of the suffering. It's a great little con trick.
An interesting blend of covert sadism, sheer cowardice & rank hypocrisy parading as some sort of moral righteousness.
Long-term residents – the socially-minded poor & middle-class (the vast majority Labour & Green supporters, incidentally) – get to be the unofficial scapegoats who are apparently expected to do all the penance on the Luvvies behalf.
Title of Post: Thrown to the Wolves
Illustrated by: A picture of an angry Wolf
Try not to be quite so silly. (or do I mean desperate ?)
Oh fuck … so it's still going on. I read your post all the way through and could visualise it all. Unacceptable at every turn.
My only useful advice is to start recording what it going on using a time stamped security camera; they’re not expensive these days. You never know when hard evidence will prove useful.
One way or another … I'll resolve this predicament. And then I might start telling some Home Truths to a few people with highly romanticised (& highly paternalistic) ideas about the Underclass.
Absolutely; our own similar experience pretty smartly slapped the delusions from us too.
This 'no eviction' policy is why landlords are so unhappy about the end of the 90 day 'no cause' termination notice. In this country the Police and Courts are of little assistance in dealing with anti-social tenants and effectively dump the problem onto the landlord.
Here in Australia we had a problem neighbour and when we talked to the property manager about it, we were promptly re-directed to the Police who very efficiently handled it. They made it clear to us that this sort of shite behaviour is either 'mad or bad'. What they told us to do was put a security camera pointing into the common area and if the behaviour changed then it meant the person had understanding that what they were doing was bad, and should then be held accountable and have consequences.
It turned out our case was 'bad', and eventually the consequence was a Court ordered eviction.
NZ has a long standing problem with violence, and until we can have an honest conversation around it's root causes, leaving out the self-serving yelling about racism and colonisation, we're pretty much stuck with it. There are many complex threads that feed into it, but the hard truth the left is very resistant to, is that you cannot help someone who will not take responsibility for themselves.
Red
Cheers, Red. Thanks very much for your support on this over the last year or so.
I'm familiar with your problem tenants & the serious trouble they've caused (been following your vigorous on-going debate with McFlock on the matter almost religously over recent weeks).
I'll have quite a bit more to say about my Parents' situation & the tacit No Eviction policy on my blog over the next few Months (but don't want to labour the point too much here … when people start going on about their private problems relentlessly on social media then it can get pretty tedious pretty quickly for everyone else. So probably just 3 or 4 posts on Sub-Zero outlining the problem, expressing my anger & frustration (hopefully without descending into a full-scale rant) & then exploring the broader political implications in a more sober way.
I was told by my daughter today her landlord in Edinburgh has had his curling rink commandeered for use as a temporary morgue….think that may be a pretty good incentive for us to do a better job of handling this than has been the case overseas
They must be anticipating one fuck of a spike then. Total deaths in Scotland atm are 10.
edit Oops. 14
thats what I thought….a helluva spike
Well…if that info I read around the impact of a successful "Shelter in Place" strategy is correct…
Am I the only one who has (perhaps mistakenly) laboured under the assumption that "flattening the curve" was only about spreading out the same number of infections over time?
I've been doing a bit of scattered reading the past few hours over a number of publications and noticing that the possible actual effects of isolation strategies aren't being explicitly stated – that the notion of "everyone" inevitably contracting the virus is the kinda accepted "truth" in more or less everything I'm reading. The containment info is sometimes in there (implied), but basically skipped over.
Assuming the "hit rate" can be brought down to single percentage numbers with good containment strategies in place, then…why isn't that message being pushed hard and repeatedly?
That is exactly what flattening the curve means.
Not all of us at the same time, but spread out.
and that is why this bullshit about bailing some rich fucker out here and there while throwing a few crumbs to the masses is such bullshit.
if people can't pay their bills – on nothing or on 80% – they will go out and try to make a living. Even if it means dying.
Yep.
The reason why is because there are zero treatments apart from keeping severe cases alive through the worst. That requires ventilators to help people breathe and near constant monitoring to save them if they're going under.
Flattening the curve (which you clearly grasped) is about making sure that there are ventilators and the treatments available for the severe cases. Thereby reducing the death rate.
Otherwise there is the secondary option of a hopefully brief visit to the curling rink.
Roll on a vaccine of an effective anti-viral. Because we really can't afford the (calculates) the potential 200-300k at about a 5% fatality rate who could die in NZ if our health system gets swamped. Which appears to be about the 'natural' cull rate of covid-19 in an unsuspecting populace given the usual 4-5 waves before herd immunity is acheived.
We lost 9k with a much simpler and easy to survive disease in 1918/19 effectively without any kind of useful care. That was between ~0.7% (european) and ~15% (maori) death rates of the populations with what was for the time close to the best available care. 45% deaths in Samoa because the dimwitted NZ occupation forces were too pig-ignorant to institute decent quarantines.
FFS: Doesn't anyone here ever read history? Or are they too interested in wanking about their own problems?
Flattening the curve (which you clearly grasped) is about making sure that there are ventilators and the treatments available for the severe cases. Thereby reducing the death rate.
No.
Different strategies flatten the curve differently. Shelter in Place can mean a total infection rate in the single digits. Social Distancing on the other hand, means widespread infection (up to herd immunity levels) spread over a longer time span.
For 37 days after infection to get close to 100% clear (ie something like a 99.5% certainty of clearance) of sheding according to the research I've been reading. Which is why they're using 14 days quarantine to prove clearance and after you're 'cleared'.
That is why this virus is way way worse than the 1918/19 influenza pandemic. It has a much long tail and a much more likely later waves. Which is why 4 weeks is the minimum.
just read somehwere today that it can 'live' in feces for up to five weeks.
Yep, i am having no issues with the 4 weeks of isolation. Its gonna bankrupt a lot of us smaller ones but at least we hopefully get to walk out of it alive.
I would expect waves for about 2 years…until either we have decent testing – and fast testing, and a vaccine or people build up some immunity.
However what is going to be a killer if it lasts that long is the damage to the lung by the virus, specially if one can catch it more then once. essentially then it is a recurring illness that will lead to death in a very short time. And that is my guess why everyone on this planet is currently tanking their economy. It is re-occuring and it is a killer.
It is likely we'd get an anti-viral first.
There has been a lot of aborted research on the various corona viruses over the last decade or two. SARS and MERS – but they've burnt themselves out too fast to finish the research. This one SARS-CoV-2 aka covid-19 looks like it will last long enough to get multiple disruption techniques finished.
Personally I not really interested in 30k base pair biological program defeating us this time. Because they're only going to get worse and we need to prevent the next outbreak.
Be nice to actually identify the human vector from the animal kingdom to this as well. A pogrom against whoever is rubbing up with the animal kingdom the wrong way and allowing these viruses to transfer so often is starting to look way more interesting than living with them.
I suspect that the Chinese government will have a good look at that.
But in NZ, we should look at our pig-farming and chicken-farming practices. And remove antibiotics from the hands of all farmers – vet only and they should be rationed.
Animal farming through much of the US and EU needs a severe curtailment.
Essentially we need to go back to ethical animal husbandry and ethical farming.
I hope for a decent test that is fast and reliable. Something like a blood sugar test, that can be done at home with a simle prick, daily if need be. Shows negative go to work, show positive of into self isolation you go for the next 12 weeks until at least two consecutive tests come back negative. What China did.
Then a treatment.
then a vaccines. Her is hoping that it will happen.
From what I understand, there appears to be too wide a range from known infection to testable results and to symptoms. The symptoms of whatever level show from 1 day to 12 days with the median at about 5 days.
Testing from what I have seen discussed is from 1 day to about 7-8 days for virus RNA or for antibodies. Which is what they’re testing for. The range of that means that testing simply is not that useful. Probably that is because most of the current testing is currently mostly based on swabs looking for RNA from the lungs.
If you look at the mechanics of a corona virus these delays become clear…
If you want grrrr.. for covid-19 read the section “Target: new infections”
That is complex, slow, and much of it is unlikely to trigger fast anti-bodies in the bloodstream (the virus targets the longs) or enough of an immediate expansion of viral RNA in the lungs immediately after infection. They are pretty much testing if someone is currently infectious rather than if they are infected.
A better way of testing would be useful because currently a single point in time for a test or at a single location is likely to miss the early infection.
The 2020 Democratic primary looks more and more like a zombie election where dead ideas (and comatose people) are taking over. Compare Sanders being pilloried for some obvious and non-controversial comments on the Cuban heakth system with this – Cuban medical team arrives in Milan.
Sociopathic.
The state of the national economy doesn't mean anything when (as happened to me many years ago) you come to realise that your breathing is not giving you enough oxygen, and if you don't get help in the next few breaths you will not have the strength to call out for assistance, and you will die soon thereafter.
I have sat by a relative as they died of lung cancer, going from chatty to dead in a seriously short period of time as they pass that same threshold of getting enough oxygen to sustain life, to not getting enough.
Sexton, Walsh, Kelly, Blanktein and Trump have no clue what they are talking about when they balance life against money.
In extremis, triage based on medical condition and prognosis, I can understand. Triage based on a banker's and a politician's fiscal survival instinct I do not agree with.
Just a thought –
If you want to speculate how Siomun and the Natz would have handled the Covid-19 pandemic – just look at how well Trump, Johnson and Morrison are doing – all right wing fwts.
With a series of bizarre, disconnected rants.
I think he's right.
Too late now though, and ironically it was his call to shut the door from Europe which triggered the panic.
Still, this is the possible alternative which on any human level is horrific in the extreme.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120525145/bodies-found-in-spanish-care-homes-abandoned-over-coronavirus
The lack of leadership in AU UK and US just highlights how lucky we are.
That link from Bill up the thread is very scary
( https://covidactnow.org/ )
I thought it was very hopeful from a NZ perspective. Like I'm saying in other comments, I'm beginning to think I completely misunderstood the possible effect of a good containment strategy – ie, it's not about spreading an inevitable 'x' number of infections over a longer time period, but about drastically reducing the overall number of infections.
that would be the second reason.
slow down the cases of newly infection by denying the virus new bodies, and at the same time managing the cases arriving at the hospital. Not all people who have the virus will need the hospital. Many can simply stay at home and get better. Well if they can self quarantine at home without infecting the other people living at the house – something that China had an issue with initially.
While I thought we moved too soon – no real evidence of local spread. It's not clearly wrong, given
1. we lacked the testing capacity for such reassurance (the price we pay for not being better prepared)
2. the higher rates of returning Kiwis coming back infected and spreading to their self isolation others (each new one increased the risk of subsequent community spread).
Aided by airlines no longer operating and the arrival of testing kits from Singapore, we will come out of this month (includes the scheduled 2 weeks school holidays) better placed.
1. hopefully reassurance of no (or successfully suppressed) community spread (via community sample testing)
2. more secure arrangements for returning Kiwis – individual placement in the city they arrive at (apartments within hotels or home stays rented by government?) in place
3. the future risk is then Kiwis in Oz losing jobs and being denied income support (so if necessary we QE the dole to them and exploit the subsequent lower Kiwi dollar to the Oz one in trade)
4. air b n b homes no longer being used for tourists ease our housing supply issues
5. at some point we will have to determine on resumption of tourism – there will be antibody testing and vaccination (both depending on whether new strains emerge that can reinfect people).
What will inform us, is how China deals with multiple point reinfection through returning students (back from North America and Europe).
The only known at this point is that QEing our way our of a pandemic is going to scare the capitalist centres no end – how will they react, and when (and will we see it coming).
Yes for the USA I mean. I'm an optimist for NZ, except between 2-5am
Farrar watch:
PDF must have started to lose some contracts because after week of ranting about how slow we were to react he's now flip-flopped and is saying we should weigh up the costs and benefits of our actions.
Nothing like losing your job to hone one’ s analysis of the decisions under which you lost that job, eh Dave.
Question. As stores are starting to no longer accept cash and the country is about to go in lockdown, what am I supposed to do if I've recently lost my wallet and can't find my birth certificate 😭 in the meantime while I wait for replacement id which is going to take absolutely forever due to this shut down,but I need id so my useless bank can issue me a card. I'm waiting on a new debit card but I'll need id to pin that card.
On a side note there are many people I know who are on welfare who have never had photo id because for some it's too expensive, for others seems too complicated etc what are old people and beneficiaries who rely on cash going to do if more stores demand pay wave or card only. This could be really, really, really bad for some people.
Can a business legally decline cash as payment?
Ever tried to order on-line using cash …
Not under current laws in reality – you have to look at the differences between legal tender and refusing payment. See the arguments here (related to the 2006 change in currency).
Of course if you’re paying in cash, usually the amounts are too small to go an argue this in court (basically lawyers are way more expensive).
While I haven’t bothered to look at your discussion or why this query was raised, but generally not accepting legal tender as payment leaves the refuser in an invidious position if there is a substantial stake involved. Used wisely, it would probably bolster any case where legal tender was proffered and refused because it would speak directly to the motivations of the refuser.
Not under current laws in reality – you have to look at the differences between legal tender and refusing payment. See the arguments here (related to the 2006 change in currency).
Of course if you’re paying in cash, usually the amounts are too small to go an argue this in court (basically lawyers are way more expensive).
While I haven’t bothered to look at your discussion or why this query was raised. Generally not accepting legal tender as payment leaves the refuser in an invidious position if there is a substantial stake involved. Used wisely, it would probably bolster any case where legal tender was proffered and refused because it would speak directly to the motivations of the refuser. For instance and this has happened in cases of racial or sexual discrimination.
The old card cancelled after losing the wallet I presume.
Get what ID you can. Your IRD number would be good – better with a print out of your last years income off their site. That and historic statements of the account linked to the old card. Even a facebook page with your mug on it would help.
You have a better chance now than normally of them being helpful.
Thank you this is a good idea. I'll print out my old transactions. I'll also go in with my online banking logged in, proof of my address com services card a library card and ird
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120512184/coronavirus-what-stores-and-services-are-still-open-during-lockdown
thank you whomever cleaned up that link
Is it just me becoming a curmugen or are too many businesses taking the mickey? How is the warehouse an essential service? Mind boggling.
If we have any hope of damage limitation with this virus then everyone must do their bit including the warehouse, liquor stores, domino's etc.
This pretty crazy.
The Warehouse just thinks it's an essential service. They might be in for a shock.
Opps, while I'm typing, they're shut. Good
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120512184/coronavirus-what-stores-and-services-are-still-open-during-lockdown
I dont think high heeled shoes, duvet covers and crappy bluetooth speakers can be classed as 'essential items'.
You might be able to get away with cellphones and laptops though, given people need to get in tough with the world.
I was telling a UK pal about Aderns "keep faithful" line & my pal said Boris used the same term, I figured our Govts are talking and getting advice from eachother but that did make me chuckle. Also I figure places like Warehouse and retail are closing just because they're places where the public congregate, they said the same thing about playgrounds, so trade centres and mechanics (on skeleton crews) are ok, for now. I do hope this works.
Wow, that escalated quickly.
I'm in an OK situation, the company I work for allowed me to take annual leave (I had a lot owing) for the lockdown, so I'm taking some good chill out time. I had the option of working from home, but wasn't really keen, thought it would be a big hassle.
We will get through this. I'm just worried about what is going to happen afterwards, and what services that Finance Minister Paul Goldsmith will cut next year if National wins the election.