Daily review 27/09/2021

19 comments on “Daily review 27/09/2021 ”

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1. arkie 1

   27 September 2021 at 5:49 pm

   Say what you will about the man and his deeds but this just shows the extent to which the US and specifically the CIA operate as a law unto themselves. Isn’t this planned behaviour the same that is so expressly and roundly condemned when performed by any other nation?

   In 2017, as Julian Assange began his fifth year holed up in Ecuador’s embassy in London, the CIA plotted to kidnap the WikiLeaks founder, spurring heated debate among Trump administration officials over the legality and practicality of such an operation.

   Some senior officials inside the CIA and the Trump administration even discussed killing Assange, going so far as to request “sketches” or “options”; for how to assassinate him. Discussions over kidnapping or killing Assange occurred “at the highest levels” of the Trump administration, said a former senior counterintelligence official. “There seemed to be no boundaries”

   https://nz.news.yahoo.com/kidnapping-assassination-and-a-london-shoot-out-inside-the-ci-as-secret-war-plans-against-wiki-leaks-090057786.html
   • Pete 1.1

     27 September 2021 at 6:11 pm

     It's just something that happens. No big deal.

     On 2 October 2018, Jamal Khashoggi, a US-based journalist and critic of Saudi Arabia's government, walked into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, where he was murdered.

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamal_Khashoggi

     Murdered and chopped up in the consulate of good friends of the US.
     • Gezza 1.1.1

       27 September 2021 at 9:02 pm

       The only media organisation that has routinely kept up reporting on the Saudi Khashoggi murder in Ankara has been Al Jazeera.

       The Saudis routinely try & hack into Aljaz & constantly try to get other countries to shut down their offices.

       Bloody Trump basically ensured that MBS got away with Khashoggi’s murder. All for the sake of a bloody arms deal that Trump kept falsely inflating the value & size of.
   • Ad 1.2

     27 September 2021 at 10:13 pm

     So the Yahoo investigation itself is at pains to point out that the Obama administration stopped the CIA from developing or carrying out such plans against Assange. That is to say the political order was doing its actual job keeping the CIA in check.

     Whereas in the case of the theocratic state the journalist was murdered and the ruler actively encouraged it.

     So no the comparison isn't one of equivalence, it's one of the US system being superior to the Saudi system.
2. Gezza 2

   27 September 2021 at 8:36 pm

   Colmar Brunton Poll results.

   Haven't had a close look at them yet.

   ……………………………

   Labour 43 (down 3)

   National 26 (down 3)

   ACT 14 (up 5)

   Green 8 (no change)

   https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/david-seymour-overtakes-judith-collins-in-preferred-pm-rankings-1news-colmar-brunton-poll
   • observer 2.1

     27 September 2021 at 9:02 pm

     The poll was taken before Hero John Key returned, so if we add him to the list then the preferred leaders on the Right are now, in order …

     1 & 2: Seymour and Key 3: Collins 4: Luxon 5: Bridges.

     If the insider tittle-tattle is to be believed, the National caucus is about to choose the voters' 5th favourite. They might as well draw straws.
     • Gezza 2.1.1

       27 September 2021 at 9:11 pm

       https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/simon-bridges-no-intention-to-be-nationals-leader-again/QUJEFTNPIVC6COI5OH32NI2UMI/

       That’s interesting, given he’s only just stated that he doesn’t want to be National’s leader again. So if he does take up the mantle a second time, that’d be used against him, imo. I’d certainly use it against him if I was active in politics or govt party comms.

       I wasn’t expecting Labour to drop 3 points too. This will focus some Govt minds on likely lockdown fatigue having been reached by several of those polled?
       • coreyjhumm 2.1.1.1

         27 September 2021 at 10:50 pm

         The incumbent prime minister was saying she didn't want to lead labour the day before she was leader but still hasn't stepped down from a job she doesn't want. All politicians want to be leader and pm and that's not weird why wouldn't you want the top job in your line of work.

         If Simon wants it he'll say he doesn't till the last. Scomo was "ambitious" for Turnbull days before he rolled him.

         Noone in national has any chance atm. Key showed more effective opposition in 24 hours than the last four national leaders.

         I wouldn't be too concerned about act and Seymour's polling if I was National , greens regularly polled at 14 % during keys years and Winston regularly bet little in preferred pm polls.

         The problem with national is theres no acceptable face, noone waiting in the wings with popularity or talent.

         And the party is controlled by social conservatives, key was lucky nats had so many social liberals. He spent a decade stealing labour party policies and making labour look like idiots when labour opposed watered down versions of their own ideas.

         I reckon a good nat leader who wanted to make labour unpopular would do things like try pass labour supporters wish lists ie try pass a cgt and decriminalization of weed knowing labour will vote against it because of party politics.
         • Gezza 2.1.1.1.1

           27 September 2021 at 11:03 pm

           Good points there

           I wasn’t meaning that Bridges would be vulnerable to attack because he acceptec being voted leader again. I agree that many (probably not all) MPs harbour leader aspirations.

           My plan of attack for Bridges would be that:

           1. he failed once as leader
           2. he hasn’t changed, so why expect a different result this time?, and
           3. if National has HAD to give the job back to failure Bridges, it speaks volumes about National’s dire dearth of caucus talent.
   • Forget now 2.2

     27 September 2021 at 11:19 pm

     I am still waiting to see what results the Roy Morgan has – that should be out in a few days. They were more accurate at the last election than CB, and have a better sampling frequency. Though they do tend to overestimate the Green vote – which; as elections draw near, and other pollsters conduct surveys more frequently; always leads to an apparent drop in GP numbers (and headlines questioning if they'll break the 5% threshold).

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election

     Anyway, the numbers I found most interesting were:

     Preferred PM:

     Don’t know: 21% (up 2%)
     Refused: 3% (up 2%)…

     Party support:

     Don’t know: 6%
     Refused: 3%

     Which suggests that voters have a stronger party loyalty than to the particular people in office. As for 3% swings that is not statistically significant – at least at the 40-60% range, the Margin of Error (assuming no systematic bias – which seems unlikely) is greater than that. National's drop is proportionately greater, so the MoE should be less (closer to 2%?). The methodology is but a footnote to the 1news story, but this from back in May (last published 1news CB poll) gives a better picture:

     The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5% have sampling errors of approximately ±1.9%-points and ±1.4%-points, respectively, at the 95% confidence level.

     These sampling errors assume a simple random sample of 1,000 eligible voters.

     It should be noted that any demographic sub-group analysis (e.g. by age or gender) will be based on a smaller set of interviews and so will have a wider sampling error

     https://www.colmarbrunton.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/22-26-May-2021_1-NEWS-Colmar-Brunton-Poll-report.pdf
     • Gezza 2.2.1

       28 September 2021 at 2:52 am

       Cheers for that analysis. Noted that 3% changes are within the margin of error. I’m a lazy blighter when it comes to political polls.
       I just like to see a lot of them & compare the results looking for replicated trends.

       Good to hear that Roy Morgan Poll results due out in a few days.
       • Forget now 2.2.1.1

         28 September 2021 at 7:19 am

         Also a couple of days (48 hours after tvnz gets to run headlines) that the full CB report comes out. I am most interested in seeing what the changes in vaccination likelihood are, if any.
         • Gezza 2.2.1.1.1

           28 September 2021 at 7:43 am

           Good. Look forward to your next comments, as a seemingly thorough poll analyst.

           I notice in the Wikipedia article on political polling in NZ that Roy Morgan was the closest to the final results in the 2017 election. Haven't checked their table for the last one.
         • Patricia Bremner 2.2.1.1.2

           28 September 2021 at 9:08 am

           Thank you Forget now.
3. joe90 3

   27 September 2021 at 8:42 pm

   Boosters and pills.

   When the White House endorsed universal booster shots a few weeks ago, many scientists and doctors—yourself included—were vocally unhappy. But if you look at, for example, the data coming out of Israel about declining vaccine effectiveness over time, it does seem like booster shots may be a solution.

   What the data from Israel shows is that among older people—the studies define that as over the age of sixty—there is declining protection, from vaccination, against severe disease, hospitalization, and death. They did not see that decline in younger age groups. These are findings that have been replicated elsewhere: in the United Kingdom, in the United States, as well as in other countries, we’ve seen a similar pattern. It’s likely because older people’s immune systems are not as young and spry, just like their bones and joints are not young and spry, so their immune systems don’t respond as well to the vaccination.

   https://archive.li/lCecD (newyorker)

   Within a day of testing positive for covid-19 in June, Miranda Kelly was sick enough to be scared. At 44, with diabetes and high blood pressure, Kelly, a certified nursing assistant, was having trouble breathing, symptoms serious enough to send her to the emergency room.

   […]

   But the Kellys, who live in Seattle, had agreed just after their diagnoses to join a clinical trial at the nearby Fred Hutch cancer research center that's part of an international effort to test an antiviral treatment that could halt covid early in its course.

   By the next day, the couple were taking four pills, twice a day. Though they weren't told whether they had received an active medication or placebo, within a week, they said, their symptoms were better. Within two weeks, they had recovered.

   "I don't know if we got the treatment, but I kind of feel like we did," Miranda Kelly said. "To have all these underlying conditions, I felt like the recovery was very quick."

   The Kellys have a role in developing what could be the world's next chance to thwart covid: a short-term regimen of daily pills that can fight the virus early after diagnosis and conceivably prevent symptoms from developing after exposure.

   https://archive.li/yubKW (medscape)
4. Pete 4

   27 September 2021 at 9:21 pm

   Herald behind the wall. I didn't click on it to see if there's a Givealittle page to help with his one way ticket out of here:

   Paul Henry: I love NZ – but I'm not sure I have the heartbeats for it any more
5. Pete 5

   27 September 2021 at 9:27 pm

   In the Herald yesterday Simon Bridges trying to be one of those rugby league coaches or players.

   You know, one of those, "I'm really happy where I am at the moment and I won't be going anywhere" types. The week before they leave and go to another club.

   Herald headline: Simon Bridges: No intention to be National's leader again

   "When you're in the national media all the time you lay yourself bare, and now's the time where I try to get some balance, spend more time with family and get on the odd reality TV show."

   In the league world that's usually confirmation.
6. Muttonbird 6

   27 September 2021 at 9:42 pm

   Young Greta:

   I really see the value of friendship. Apart from the climate, almost nothing else matters.

   

   – Photograph: Marcus Ohlsson

   

   – When an eight-year-old Thunberg was shown a plastic armada in the ocean, she couldn't get the image out of her head. Photograph: Darko Vojinović/AP

   https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2021/sep/25/greta-thunberg-i-really-see-the-value-of-friendship-apart-from-the-climate-almost-nothing-else-matters
7. Patricia Bremner 7

   28 September 2021 at 9:13 am

   She is right to be an activist. I remember when polymers were invented and had a 20 to 30 year life….. I thought then, rubbish will have that life as well. It has come to pass, and all the syringes masks etc debri of the pandemic………..?

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