Daily review 28/07/2021

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, July 28th, 2021 - 30 comments
Categories: Daily review - Tags:

Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

30 comments on “Daily review 28/07/2021 ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. aj 1
    28 July 2021 at 5:38 pm

    Wee Willie Walker nails it in the lyrics of this blues number. May I dedicate it to all the authors and contributors to this blog.

    If Nothing Ever Changes . . . . .

  2. Incognito 2
    28 July 2021 at 5:49 pm

    Here's the full report, all 98 pages: https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/horizon-research-covid-19-vaccine-june2021.pdf

    KEY FINDINGS

    • Among those who have not yet been vaccinated, the percentage of those who will “definitely” get a vaccine has not changed from May. However, there has been a decline in those who will “most likely” or are “likely” to get a COVID-19 vaccine and an increase in those who will “definitely not” get a vaccine,or are “most unlikely” to do so.
    • There has been minimal change in how those who have not yet been vaccinated think about the prospect of getting a vaccine and what will most influence them in their decision.
    • Barfly 2.1
      28 July 2021 at 6:19 pm

      hard to cure "stupid"

      • Andre 2.1.1
        28 July 2021 at 6:27 pm

        My cousin would like a word:

      • Incognito 2.1.2
        28 July 2021 at 6:32 pm

        Nah, nothing a bit of kindness love good nature, good information, and good education cannot handle. And of course a whole lot of patience and perseverance because it is more about hesitance and resistance than sheer stupidity.

  3. pat 3
    28 July 2021 at 5:56 pm

    206,000 vaccines last week.

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/charting-new-zealands-vaccine-rollout

    Tracking slightly ahead of schedule.

    • alwyn 3.1
      28 July 2021 at 6:48 pm

      "Tracking slightly ahead of schedule".

      Can you please tell me where this schedule of what they plan to do is published? Or is it just something they only tell us about after the event?

      If this was the case it would be like my ability to pick the Lotto numbers. I have picked the winning numbers in every one of the last 50 draws. On 17/7/21 I picked 3,5,8,11,32,36. On 21/7/21 I chose 5,7,28,29,33,38. Last Saturday, 24/7/21 I had 7,9,10,14,24,35.

      I am quite infallible as you can see. To be fair to everyone else I don't tell anyone ahead of time though and I don't buy a ticket myself. That would just spoil the fun for all the people who can't do what I can do. I am just like someone who claims to always get results that are slightly ahead of schedule without ever telling us ahead of time what the schedule is going to be.

      • Andre 3.1.2
        28 July 2021 at 7:05 pm

        Here's an Ozzie publication for what was planned way back in April, just in case your tinfoil hat is telling you our deep state is sneakily changing on the sly all our archives of what the Ministry of Health has published all along the way:

        https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-27/new-zealand-covid-vaccination-program-on-track/100071086

        As you can see, way back then it was planned we would hit about 2M doses in arms by the end of July. It's looking likely we'll be very close.

      • pat 3.1.3
        28 July 2021 at 7:50 pm

        You will have to address your request to your DHB as they will have the schedule for your location, however as the Minister stated when announcing the vaccine programme it is intended to be completed by the end of 2021 and ramp up as vaccines become available in greater quantities (around now)….Newsroom have helpfully done the plotting for you if you wish to check on progress.

        You may wish to consider that like lotto numbers schedules are not necessarily available to those that have no need of them

      • joe90 3.1.4
        28 July 2021 at 8:00 pm

        where this schedule of what they plan to do is published

        The schedule was online when I booked in early June.

        I had the first on the 8th of June.

        https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#by_dhb_plan

        • alwyn 3.1.4.1
          28 July 2021 at 8:48 pm

          The link you give is all historical data. Where are the plans for the future.

          Alternatively where were the planned numbers for today, or thereabouts, as published 3 months ago.

          Andre gave an Australian published source that shows a planned number of doses that is about 2.1 million at 31 July 2017. Your document claims that the plan was 1.63 million at 25 July. That is a difference of almost half a million with a date difference of about 5 days. Assuming there are 30k/day for the rest of the month it would appear that the plan they are telling us about now is 350,000 less than they proposed in April. That is an awfully big change, isn't it?

          • McFlock 3.1.4.1.1
            28 July 2021 at 9:45 pm

            why are you assuming 30k/day?

            • alwyn 3.1.4.1.1.1
              28 July 2021 at 9:59 pm

              In the link that Joe90 provided in his 8.00pm comment there are numbers for Vaccinations by day and Vaccinations by group by week. For the last week of these figures I think a figure of 30k/day is a rough, but reasonable, approximation to the numbers published in each graph.

              • Ed1 …
                28 July 2021 at 10:08 pm

                These are the total NZ statistics.

                https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#model

                I suspect some of the expectations for different groups have not been met due to changes in priorities, such as the South Auckland early vaccinations (including families) and the vaccination of a lot more border and health workers than anticipated. Overall NZ has consistently met planned total numbers, but the media prefer comparisons of percentage of population with other countries – I am not aware of any commitments regarding those comparisons by our government.

              • McFlock …
                28 July 2021 at 11:56 pm

                Or you could look at the xlsx data sheet linked to on that web page. Might save you applying vernier calipers to a web chart and pulling pessimism out of your arse.

                Of interest will be the planned targets of 1.89mil for week ending 1/8, and 2.16mil for week ending 8/8.

                Also of interest, the delivered shots averaging out to 27k/day for week ending 25/7, up from 19.4k/day the week before, and 18.5k/day the week before that.

                Week ending 1/8 they planned an average of 36k/day, and seem on track for that (based on mon&tuesday numbers).

                Now start moaning that those numbers don't exactly match how you analysed a chart on whatever monitor or screen you have at your disposal, and then we can discuss why and how charts often illustrate trends rather than details.

                • alwyn …
                  29 July 2021 at 10:19 am

                  I presume you are trying to say something sensible so I kept reading even after your stupid start in the first sentence. What your comment has to do with mine is not however apparent.

                  I took the planned numbers of the link supplied by Andre. It was the only item anyone could supply for "planned" figures that were produced before the actual numbers were available. If you don't like how I got a figure of 2.1 million I suggest you find something more detailed. I certainly couldn't.

                  However I then compared the result with the actual numbers that have been achieved. To get to the end of July an extrapolation was required. The difference between my 30k/day and your 36k/day only changes the result by 30k. That would reduce my calculated deficit of 350k to 320k. Still a very large divergence isn't it?

                  I don't know where you get your "planned" 1.89m from. Wherever it was it certainly doesn't seem to match the planned figures from Andre's link does it? A bit of creative post facto planning looks more likely.

                  Now, if you can find real planned numbers from early in the operation you may care to provide them. Using numbers that were only announced just before the reality becomes apparent is just a fiddle to make things look good.

                  If you can't find any such material I suggest it is you who might consider giving up blowing "statistics" out of your arse.

                  • Andre …
                    29 July 2021 at 10:42 am

                    You could go looking for the xlsx sheet McFlock mentioned. It has a column labeled something like 'first schedule', which appeared to match that April graph fairly closely.

                    In that, from memory, the cumulative doses in that column for 1st August was 2.06 million. Our actuals for that date, 3 months at least three months after making that plan in a very fluid complex evolving situation, will be aroundabout 1.9 million.

                    So you're busy furiously spanking your monkey over a variance less than 10% from an original plan set long ago. For a very large and complex operation involving setting up a variety of new resources, skills, infrastructure, etc, that's never been done before. In a complex rapidly changing worldwide crisis situation.

                    In my books, what's been achieved so far is by any objective measure a resounding success.

                    Far far better than the massive budget blowouts, massive delays, and failure to meet objectives that usually characterise government efforts (particularly conservative ones). On projects that are quite routine in well-defined environments.

                    Tell me, is finding nonsensical things to whinge about really the sole joy in your existence as it appears to be?

                    • alwyn …
                      29 July 2021 at 2:30 pm

                      In summary therefore, and ignoring your juvenile little digs, we can take it that.

                      We are running about 10% behind, in doses administered, or a couple of weeks behind the original schedule in time. Both are totally acceptable.

                      We were never going to be at the "front of the queue" and claims like that by people like Hipkins were false. It was only that sort of wild claim, and the opening up of supposed availability to new groups when there was no vaccine available that has caused the confusion in public expectations.

                      Why didn't they tell us that at the beginning instead of leading us up the garden path?

                      Incidentally I think you are taking quite the wrong interpretation of the situation when you say "Far far better than the massive budget blowouts, massive delays, and failure to meet objectives that usually characterise government efforts". The vaccine we are using was developed by a private company who refused any Government involvement or financing of the research. They did accept a conditional purchase order from the US Government which would take effect only if the drug received approval from the FDA. We didn't have any blowouts or delays in that research work because there was no Government involvement in the work. The New Zealand Government simply bought the finished product. There has been some delays because the Government refused to get the Medical Centres involved and tried to build a new array of vaccination centres themselves but that was the simple part of the vaccination delivery program. It really hasn't been as smooth as the annual flu vaccination seems to be. It is much larger in scale of course.

                      Tell me, why do seem to enjoy making nonsensical remarks about people who don't slavishly follow your adoration of the current Government. Do you really not have anything better to do?

                      Thank you for providing a link to the original plan. I wonder why they never published it openly?

                    • Incognito []
                      29 July 2021 at 3:40 pm

                      Hi Alwyn,

                      Could you please end this exercise in futility, thanks?

                      A few others have already linked to where you can find all data, which show, incidentally, that you may not be correct:

                      https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data

                      https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/covid_vaccinations_27_07_2021.xlsx

                      We have already dealt on this site with the propagation of the misleading misinterpretation of what was meant with “the front of the queue”, e.g., here https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-27-06-2021/#comment-1800204.

                      If you continue going this path there are only two possible conclusions to draw, neither of which are flattering, but one of which may have worse repercussions for you than the other.

                      Please don’t go down this path, again.

                  • Drowsy M. Kram …
                    29 July 2021 at 11:24 am

                    Quite right alwyn, so helpful and constructive to keep banging on about NZ's slow and steady vaccine rollout.

                    Meanwhile, NZ has slipped one place to the #3 spot in Bloomberg's recently updated monthly Covid resilience ranking, largely because of limited "Vaccinated Travel Routes" and the relatively low % of people vaccinated. I'm confident that this % will increase month-on-month.

                    Norway is the new No. 1 in Bloomberg's Covid Resilience Ranking, with enough shots administered to cover almost half its population, few new fatalities and its borders unsealed. The embrace of travel amid falling fatalities put Switzerland second, while New Zealand – a stalwart of the top three after eliminating Covid – is third.

                    Interestingly, what's keeping us near the top of the table is our relatively mild lockdowns – 150+ days with no community transmission of Covid, so a shout out to all the MIQ staff, test and trace staff, public health staff, etc. etc., and the team of nearly five million.

                    So, overall, a bronze medal for NZ's Covid resilience this month.
                    Cheer up alwyn – could be worse. We don't know how lucky we are smiley

                  • McFlock …
                    29 July 2021 at 2:40 pm

                    I suggest you find something more detailed. I certainly couldn't.

                    I like that the more people try to walk you through the absolute basics, the more stupid you become.

                    In summary, you tried to estimate an exact value from a chart, and on this basis rests your conviction that we are running "running about 10% behind".

                    And yet the actual data is clearly available in joe's link, demonstrating that you are a week off and underestimating the administration rate.

                    • alwyn …
                      29 July 2021 at 2:53 pm

                      I'm sorry to see that your liver is still troubling you. I suggest you take your Doctor's advice.

                      Perhaps you could provide a direct link to the the clearly available data. I'm sure you can do it instantly.

                    • McFlock …
                      29 July 2021 at 3:22 pm

                      "Instant" is a bit quick, but now you have all sorts of other ways to pretend to be a moron:

                      "but where is the data? I only see a link"

                      "how do I open an xlsx file?"

                      "but these are numbers, and on the web page there is a chart. I am confused"

                      "what do numbers mean?"

                      "oh no, my eyeballs have fallen out. I can only assume my previous assumptions are accurate, rather than letting them be altered by actual data".

                      "no hablo ingles, y yo soy muy estupido"

                      "Mi gato usa mi computadora, lo siento"

          • Patricia Bremner 3.1.4.1.2
            28 July 2021 at 10:26 pm

            Alwyn, Australia has changed their prediction a couple of times. You would be unhappy.

            Just get vaccinated… end of story.

      • Pete 3.1.5
        28 July 2021 at 9:46 pm

        I think it was Paul Holmes who was in a similar situation. He wanted to know something in particular. Not because it was germane or important or necessary but to give him something to attack. He busily attacked not getting the information so it kept him happy. Bitching.

        I'm sure your life will be the lesser for not having The Schedule. Hopefully your last moments won't be taken with pondering what the schedule was, why you didn't get it and how that lack impacted on the journey through time for the universe. And you specifically.

  4. Incognito 4
    28 July 2021 at 6:26 pm

    I should have known that Paul Buchanan would explain why he called Gerry Brownlee a buffoon. Of course, buffoons are just a distraction, but for people with monkey brains such as I, it is nice to hear it from the horse’s mouth, so to speak.

    In the end, the NZ government has to make the most of a difficult situation and appears to be doing so, barking from the Opposition notwithstanding. It will be for Ms. Aden to make the most of her second (or third) chance in life, if not for herself then for the future of her children. The Opposition would be wise to cease and desist trying to score political points on the matter, less they find themselves confronted by a similar dilemma in the future when in government.

    Most of all, it is time for the buffoonery to stop.

    http://www.kiwipolitico.com/2021/07/a-note-on-the-jihadi-bride/

  5. I Feel Love 5
    28 July 2021 at 6:27 pm

    Just finished Exterminate All The Brutes, sheesh, that's some heavy viewing! History of colonisation, white supremacy, not for the faint hearted.

  6. Fireblade 6
    28 July 2021 at 7:43 pm

    No community transmission of COVID-19 in New Zealand for 150 days (5 months).

The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.