Daily review 28/09/2020

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, September 28th, 2020 - 114 comments
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114 comments on “Daily review 28/09/2020 ”

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  1. Robert Guyton 1
    28 September 2020 at 6:09 pm

    First past the post is the winner in a horse-race, right? Politics in New Zealand is a horse-race, right??

  2. riffer 2
    28 September 2020 at 6:11 pm

    Colmar Brunton poll looks like a Colmar Brunton. Always seems to be about 3% leaned towards the Nats. Hard to make much of it, but bless Jessica Mutch Mackay, she's trying to spin it like we finally have a poll we can rely on.

    • Robert Guyton 2.1
      28 September 2020 at 6:13 pm

      Labour should coalesce with ACT – Rimmer has worked hard, earned the respect – Jacinda! Choose Seymour!

      • riffer 2.1.1
        28 September 2020 at 6:14 pm

        I'd rather not see that to be honest. ACT has a policy of doing away with the place I work, so I'm not keen on that.

    • James 2.2
      28 September 2020 at 6:13 pm

      It’s the trends that count. Not ideal direction for labour.

      • riffer 2.2.1
        28 September 2020 at 6:15 pm

        I'm beginning to think, based on the poll results post debate, and the stuff I read Collins saying, that a substantial percentage of NZers actually like violence, and seeing people hurting other people.

      • Drowsy M. Kram 2.2.2
        28 September 2020 at 6:17 pm

        On election day it's the number (of votes) that counts – that number is looking less than "ideal" for National laugh

        National’s time will come again, but it won’t be this time – they need to get past their obsession with shitty low blows first.

        • James 2.2.2.1
          28 September 2020 at 6:29 pm

          Indeed not looking awesome for National at the moment. But if the greens fall below 5% then labour no mates isn’t looking quite as comfortable.

          • Drowsy M. Kram 2.2.2.1.1
            28 September 2020 at 6:36 pm

            Expect Green party support will keep them in parliament – Labour look dependable regardless.

          • observer 2.2.2.1.2
            28 September 2020 at 6:44 pm

            You'll have about an hour of hope on election night.

            7 pm: Greens 5%. 10 pm: Greens 6-7%.

            Two weeks later, the result: Greens 8-9%.

            It's always fun to watch National supporters fail to understand how counting votes actually works. Key won a single party majority 3 times, as long as you went to bed early.

            • James 2.2.2.1.2.1
              28 September 2020 at 6:59 pm

              It takes a special kinda person to believe the greens are going to land at 8-9%.

              I’m not surprised you’re one of them.

              • observer …
                28 September 2020 at 7:06 pm

                Nothing special, just evidence-based analysis of Labour's cautious positioning, and the clear incentive for Labour left voters to back the coalition partner, both tactically (i.e. above threshold) and philosophically (more progressive government).

          • bwaghorn 2.2.2.1.3
            28 September 2020 at 7:47 pm

            Wow you just convinced me that I need to part vote green .

            Keep up the good work

      • mickysavage 2.2.3
        28 September 2020 at 9:03 pm

        The trend is that Labour + Greens have not moved. There aint no trend.

    • RedBaronCV 2.3
      28 September 2020 at 10:20 pm

      I'm still amazed that around 35% Nat & Act voters – are not voting as if their life depends on it. Because them opener borders would not be good.

  3. riffer 3
    28 September 2020 at 6:12 pm

    I am curious though, we we are not getting any polling on the referenda? Is that not allowed?

  4. millsy 4
    28 September 2020 at 6:35 pm

    I don't think our side is going to win.

    And ACT and National govt might just come through.

    • observer 4.1
      28 September 2020 at 6:40 pm

      They won't come through – as long as voters … vote. Which doesn't mean a "like" on social media.

      With an average turnout, Ardern will win a second term comfortably, with the Greens.

      But a low turnout is a real risk, and Collins' only hope. Let's do all we can to encourage people to get out, as soon as advance voting starts.

    • Patricia Bremner 4.2
      28 September 2020 at 7:55 pm

      Millsy, last election I said "Don't despair", I say it again

      Vote early. Shut out the noise, as you have done your best.

      • halfcrown 4.2.1
        28 September 2020 at 8:20 pm

        Agree with that. Also, remember the only important poll is your vote. Forget what the media is wanting you to hear or think.

        Also, I say to anybody thinking of voting for the right aren't we lucky to have had an incompetent administration of the coalition of losers who didn't know what they were doing that stopped you from getting the virus and kept you safe so you can now vote for some other party which is more concerned about greed than peoples welfare.

        As someone said many times "You don't know how lucky you are" or if National supported by that gun lobbying prat Rimmer get in "were"

        • bwaghorn 4.2.1.1
          29 September 2020 at 6:21 am

          Yip the coalition has been so useless I am going on holiday next week visiting friends and family across the north island and having meals in cafes while having adventures.

  5. observer 5
    28 September 2020 at 6:36 pm

    News must be new, so shifts of one percentage point are presented as up/down movement, supposedly more "interesting" than a reporter explaining the margin of error.

    The real take from tonight's poll is confirmation and consolidation from other polling: no, the Greens haven't been hurt (and don't wait for the commentators to re-assess their doom-laden predictions), but NZF are gone and ACT's gain is real.

  6. Anne 6
    28 September 2020 at 6:49 pm

    I see National has scored 3 percentage points since last week's poll. I reckon its due to Collins performance at the first leader's debate.

    As someone pointed out to me last week… what's the matter with Jacinda? She can sock it to them in the debating chamber and gets kudos for it so why can't she do it in a TV debate.

    I concur. Pull your socks up Jacinda.

    • riffer 6.1
      28 September 2020 at 6:57 pm

      My comment from before stands. Seriously, it seems like Judith Collins would gain 10% for National if she assaulted Jacinda Adern live on telly during the debate.

      Why does Jacinda have to sock it to anybody?

      • Anne 6.1.1
        28 September 2020 at 7:39 pm

        Well then why does she 'sock it to them' in the House? I could have put it this way… she needs to counter Judith's bullying behaviour and untruths by calling her out on it.

        Why do people assume that socking it to bullies is somehow wrong? That is why they get away with so much because people let them.

        • observer 6.1.1.1
          28 September 2020 at 7:52 pm

          She doesn't need to get dragged into a mudfight, but she does need to engage with Collins better. Just rebut with calm, direct questions, instead of letting Collins rewrite history:

          "So what does that mean, Judith? You supported zero carbon act / gun control / the lockdown (etc) Do you regret that?".

          Don't rely on the moderator to do that job for her, which was the problem in the TVNZ debate. Collins' whoppers went unchallenged. A post-debate fact-check is useless, it needs to be in real time.

          "That's as true as your five dollar cheese, Judith …".

          • Anne 6.1.1.1.1
            28 September 2020 at 8:40 pm

            She doesn't need to get dragged into a mudfight, but she does need to engage with Collins better. Just rebut with calm, direct questions, instead of letting Collins rewrite history.

            Which is pretty much what I was trying to say. 🙂

            Have been watching the youth debate courtesy of TVNZ online. What a treat.

            They reminded me of the public meetings and debates of yesteryear – lively, lots of fun, a bit raucous at times but the two ingredients which were missing… nastiness and bully boy/girl behaviour.

            Bravo to all who took part. A great debate ably managed by Jack Tane.

  7. ScottGN 7
    28 September 2020 at 6:53 pm

    Labour + Greens is the same in this poll as the last CB, they just traded a percentage point with each other. That’s good right? Isn’t it what most commenters in here wanted?
    Nats + ACT look to have clawed a bit back from the minors.

    So no change really.

    • weka 7.1
      28 September 2020 at 7:49 pm

      I'd be happier with a higher GP vote obviously but a L/G coalition withhout NZF is a really good result for the left. Would be great for the Mp to get a seat or two as well, they've ruled out supporting Nat.

  8. anker 8
    28 September 2020 at 6:56 pm

    What Mutch Mckay and others aren't factoring in is Overseas votes. Always favour the left, bound to overwhelming favour Jacinda Ardern especially as we are not charging in the main for quarantine.

    I will check out how many votes this usually off. This latest poll may serve a purpose of getting Labour voters out to vote.

    Another factor as community transmission fades away, this will help Labour too

  9. Andre 9
    28 September 2020 at 6:57 pm

    For all the hype about what a political wunderkind Swarbrick is, the miserable polling results on such a no-brainer as the cannabis referendum is quite an abject failure. (h/t James at 3.3 for link)

    • weka 9.1
      28 September 2020 at 7:52 pm

      snort, is that the Ad school of politics? What forces do you think have been brought to bear on the vote?

      • Andre 9.1.1
        28 September 2020 at 8:00 pm

        Prob'ly much the same forces that legalisation advocates have had to overcome in all the other places in the world where legalisation actually passed. Often resoundingly.

        • weka 9.1.1.1
          28 September 2020 at 8:05 pm

          except the places where they haven't been overcome.

          Lots of people don't want to legalise cannabis. Might help to understand why.

          • Andre 9.1.1.1.1
            28 September 2020 at 8:15 pm

            Because for too many people, they go with their feels and reckons and "other ways of knowing", rather than facts and evidence, when making their decisions.

  10. ScottGN 10
    28 September 2020 at 6:58 pm

    Hooten saying on Twitter that the SFO investigation into NZ First is set to be released. They reckon it clears them all.

    • James 10.1
      28 September 2020 at 7:34 pm

      Winston says a lot of things. Many of them so weaseled it’s an art form.

      his party say exactly what winny tells them to. So it’s not surprising they are all saying the same thing.

      I guess we will wait for the SFO – but it sounds like it’s close (or they know it’s going to be after the election so they can lie their pants off before hand)

  12. Andre 12
    28 September 2020 at 7:15 pm

    Hands up (even tiny ones) if you spend 100X more a year on your hair than you pay in tax.

    https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1310388421286920193

  13. observer 13
    28 September 2020 at 7:44 pm

    72% of Kiwis approve of Jacinda Ardern (tonight's poll).

    Keep up the snide, the snark, the personal insults, Judith. You're reading the room so well.

    • Herodotus 13.1
      28 September 2020 at 8:00 pm

      That is the problem, Labour trades on the Cult of Personality. Should Labour win this election that will mean that since the transition of NZ in 1984. Labour will have been in power longer than National. I wonder who then takes responsibility for where NZ will be in 2-3 years time.

      No matter how well or what good intentions JA has, she is only the leader of Labour and is still bound by the party.

      • Bearded Git 13.1.1
        29 September 2020 at 10:10 am

        Yep…when Ardern is 60 in 2040 she may retire gracefully….then National may have a chance of the Treasury Benches.

  14. bwaghorn 14
    28 September 2020 at 7:54 pm

    Non political question?

    I just started James joyce's Ulysses.

    Should I bother carrying on ?

    does he learn to write a sentence that makes sense at some point . ?

    Or am I missing something?

    • Andre 14.1
      28 September 2020 at 8:05 pm

      How far in have you got?

      I made it 3 sentences before deciding I would take the zero for that part of my seventh form English assessment.

      • bwaghorn 14.1.1
        28 September 2020 at 8:40 pm

        About 10 pages and have not the foggiest in what's going on.

        • Andre 14.1.1.1
          28 September 2020 at 8:43 pm

          Jaeezzuss! 10 Pages!

          I am not worthy to roll in your spittle.

          • bwaghorn 14.1.1.1.1
            28 September 2020 at 8:57 pm

            1 once read anna karenina start to finish .that's a feat I I'm still very proud of.

            • Andre 14.1.1.1.1.1
              28 September 2020 at 9:14 pm

              I went through a phase when I found Tolstoy quite readable. But oddly, really not memorable. I really can't recall anything about his works, and don't feel any desire to reread them to refresh my memory. Unlike some other authors I keep getting drawn back to, because there's fresh nuance and subtleties I find every time I go back.

        • RedBaronCV 14.1.1.2
          28 September 2020 at 10:14 pm

          Quality outcome – 7 more pages than me.

          I couldn't figure out why I wanted to live in some guy's head when he went to the bog – I think that was what was going on anyway.

          Tolstoy IMHO is a lot more readable but I was very upset by he ending of war & peace when i was younger.

      • Gabby 14.1.2
        28 September 2020 at 9:54 pm

        Your teacher was a sadist.

    • Robert Guyton 14.2
      28 September 2020 at 8:45 pm

      Bwaghorn – it takes some doing but is a treasure once you've learned the language. Give it time. One evening, as you drop off to sleep, you'll feel your brain aligning itself to Joyce's style. New day, you're off!

      • bwaghorn 14.2.1
        28 September 2020 at 8:55 pm

        Aagh I see I bit like watching the romeo and juliet movie

        Ok when I'm not so busy and tired of an evening I will attempt again.

      • AB 14.2.2
        28 September 2020 at 9:46 pm

        Yep. One of the greatest things ever written. First time through don't try too hard to understand it. Treat it like poetry. Then find a decent companion or exegesis and read it a second time.

        • In Vino 14.2.2.1
          28 September 2020 at 11:09 pm

          In 1963, my English Teacher chose not Ulysses to inflict upon us, but 'Portrait of an Artist as a Young Man'. I read it OK, maybe not understanding it as well as if I had been older, but it was OK, and may be an easier Intro to James Joyce..

  15. Incognito 15
    28 September 2020 at 8:16 pm

    Judith is only 2% away from her personal aspirational target of 35%. I know she can do it! In any case, just like Merv, she will cling on to Leadership like shit sticks to a blanket; it is the National way and pretty legal too.

  16. ScottGN 16
    28 September 2020 at 8:35 pm

    @weka 7.1

    I’d be quite happy if the Māori Party picked up a seat from Labour and maybe an extra list MP too. But the polling out tonight in the Māori seats doesn’t look very promising for that.

    So Labour + Greens looks the most likely government combo at this stage. Though I see that the Nact and ACT fanbois are juggling all sorts of crazy scenarios on the old Twitter.

  17. ianmac 17
    28 September 2020 at 8:38 pm

    Just watched the online Young voters debate with Jack Tame. One rep from each Party. Plus a few from Party groups around the Hall.

    Pretty good. Questions specific with some follow up. 3 were sitting MPs. It was much more watchable that the Leaders Debate with John.

    Taking part in the debate were:
    Kiri Allan – Labour
    Simeon Brown – National
    Chlöe Swarbrick – Greens
    Robert Griffith – NZ First
    Brooke van Veldon – Act

  18. ScottGN 18
    28 September 2020 at 8:44 pm

    @bwaghorn 14.

    Just give it away. Everybody else does.

  20. anker 20
    28 September 2020 at 9:05 pm

    tried researching how many overseas votes there were last election 2017. But to date unable to find it.

    Anybody know what percentage voted from overseas? Swordfish?

  21. Hanswurst 21
    28 September 2020 at 9:24 pm

    The more I see of Collins, the less impressed I am. I had thought that she was sharp, good at cutting through others' arguments and someone for getting real points across clearly. However, as leader, she seems to be spouting nonsensical buzz-words, and often tailing off at the end of sentences, having lost track of exactly where she was going. After the debate, she was constantly trying to remember figures and tripping over her own tongue, and when she was asked about whether she hadn't neglected her own policy somewhat, she reeled off a few policies, before saying, 'It's only an hour and a half, if only it was two-and-a-half, I could have got… done any more [nervous smile and '…yeah…', like she's trying to make small-talk when visiting her mother-in-law for the first time, and pretending she doesn't hate the slightly stale date scones that were clearly cut on a board normally used for garlic].'

    Then, today at the Grey Power meeting, there was, 'I don't think for a moment that these [Labour politicians] know how many cents there are in a dollar, except they do know that your dollar should be their dollar.' That's a non-sequitur of John-Key-ish proportions; just stringing together lazy, right-wing clichés with no thought for whether they even fit together to form a statement. It reminds me a lot of Melissa Lee, too, who, when put on the spot campaigning for a seat, ended up spouting a whole lot of stuff that either didn't make any sense, or seemed to mean something that she really should not have said.

    Witness, too, the line at the same meeting, 'I know you might love Miss Ardern, but actually, I'm all over her.' So she loves her even more than they do? Riiiight…. Okay, we all know what she meant, but even then: is she trying to say that there was a time when she thought was wildly enthused by Ardern, or something? All in all, if you imagine a lot of what Collins says being said by the rhetorically hapless George W Bush, it really doesn't seem too far out of place.

    Susie Ferguson didn't do a bad job on Morning Report the other day of pulling her up on her bumbling replies about their fiscal errors, but honestly, presenters should be halting her constantly, and asking her, 'Wtf… you just said what?… and what was it even supposed to mean?' and people should be putting together montages of her gaffes accompanied by a laughing track.

    • In Vino 21.1
      28 September 2020 at 11:19 pm

      Fully agree, Hanswurst – her language ability is limited, and she will need compliant, helpful Media to help her again if she is to repeat her questionable "success" of that first TV debate.
      Mind you, I thought both John Key and Bill English mangled the English language, and found it hard to believe that Bill English was really a graduate in English! Todd Muller had big problems with language too.
      Better if I don’t say what I thought of Simon Bridges as an alleged graduate of Harvard in Law, etc… “The medicine is worse than the cure.” Lord save us!

      • Hanswurst 21.1.1
        29 September 2020 at 6:40 am

        I fully agree, especially on Key, but the thing is that Key was mangling the language in his fabled capacity as a freewheeling, self-taught financial wizard, while English built his political persona around the image of 'barbecue Bill', the amateur pugilist and Dipton farmer. Part of the problem for Bridges and Collins is that they have built their political images as clever lawyers, Collins as a hard-nosed battler for conservative principles, Bridges (rightly or wrongly) as a precocious hot-shot prosecutor. It's much harder for them to defuse a situation by grinning and saying, 'Aw shucks!'

    • Anne 21.2
      29 September 2020 at 10:48 am

      It reminds me a lot of Melissa Lee, too, who, when put on the spot campaigning for a seat, ended up spouting a whole lot of stuff that either didn't make any sense, or seemed to mean something that she really should not have said.

      Like her commentary during the Mt Albert byelection campaign of some years back when she made her claim about criminals from South Auckland stopping off in Mt Albert on their way to West Auckland. No-one knew what that had to do with the price of fish but the local wits and cartoonists did try to unravel her thoughts on the matter… much to everyone's enjoyment.

      Not sure Collins could ever beat that pearler but you never know.

  22. Stuart Munro 22
    29 September 2020 at 12:20 am

    A useful rapid testing option, if we take the trouble to develop it. Sniffer dogs can detect Covid apparently.

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