Graph of the day: 1 in 20 jobs gone in Chch

44 comments on “Graph of the day: 1 in 20 jobs gone in Chch ”

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1. tsmithfield 1

   3 August 2011 at 11:30 am

   The free market will fix the problem. But not necessarily in the way that everyone wants.

   “Fixing” simply means that supply will eventually balance out with demand in terms of supply and demand for resources, labour etc.

   It doesn’t mean things will return to the way they were previously.
   • Blighty 1.1

     3 August 2011 at 11:53 am

     does it mean that people will have jobs, dignity, and somewhere to live? Or don’t those factors come into the calculations of the free market?
   • mik e 1.2

     4 August 2011 at 12:07 am

     When the free market fails just about every Govt on this earth steps in to fix it . are you Brashs latest fling, your so far up there you are blinkered blinded by BS.
2. Colonial Viper 2

   3 August 2011 at 11:59 am

   NZ needs to realise that the market needs to be a servant not a master. Use it to fulfill the vision we want. Not be buffetted helpless and hapless like a cork in a storm.

   ts’ concept of the market is bullshit. There is no such thing as a market equilibrium and we as a country are letting our second largest city wither on the vine.
3. tsmithfield 3

   3 August 2011 at 12:12 pm

   The market doesn’t make any moral judgement about personal well-being. The market just determines the price on the basis of supply and demand constraints. However, left to itself the market is self-supporting on the basis of balancing out these constraints.

   Of course, national/local government can influence the market by its actions. For instance, by fast-tracking the consent process for subdivisions in Christchurch so that the supply of sections matches the demand at a given price, thus effectively setting the price for land without needing to impose arbitrary prices that simply have the effect of throttling supply..
   • Colonial Viper 3.1

     3 August 2011 at 12:23 pm

     The market is amoral in other words.

     Time to use the market as a servant not as a master. Time to get a Government which understands how to do that. One which doesn’t buy into this neoliberal “let’s see what the market does” BS.
   • Shane Gallagher 3.2

     3 August 2011 at 8:15 pm

     The “market” is inherently unstable, irrational and chaotic. It doesn’t balance out. Why do you think markets crash all the time? The GFC of 2008 was a result of the free market.

     The primary concern should be human flourishing and genuine human prosperity. The market may be a tool that works to produce good breakfast cereals or coffee shops but for anything more complicated it is has to be strictly controlled. It is a tool. many in society have been convinced that we should serve it and not the other way around because the elites make a lot of money out of it.
4. Matthew Hooton 4

   3 August 2011 at 12:15 pm

   Wow – that graph almost looks as if there had been two major earthquakes in late Q3 2010 and Q1 2011, with the second one being worse than the first one, meaning a whole lot of economic activity that had been occurring in Christchchurch (say in its CDB) stopped happening, and a lot of people had to leave town to find new work, because their offices, shops or factories had been destroyed ….

   What is Eddie’s point? That there is 5% less employment in Canterbury? Hold the front page.
   • Colonial Viper 4.1

     3 August 2011 at 12:26 pm

     Christchurch is depopulating and its economy is powering down. Hundreds of people are leaving the city permanently every month and taking their children with them.

     People can see it and feel it, despite your carefully constructed cynicism.

     What we need is a government willing to act on behalf of the people and not just watch the free market chips fall where they may.
   • mik e 4.2

     4 August 2011 at 12:09 am

     Nationals policy is fixing Australias skills shortage!
5. Matthew Hooton 5

   3 August 2011 at 12:55 pm

   I think that you’ll find that, overall, the Christchurch economy is beginning to power up, compared with where it was on the morning of Wednesday 23 March, but it is hardly cynical – “carefully constructed” or otherwise – to observe that after a major catastrophe a fall in employment of 5% is hardly surprising. More cynical is Eddie’s post, and your third par, trying to say something could have been done to prevent a 5% fall in employment after such a disaster. What do you have in mind? Reopen the CBD?
   • Blighty 5.1

     3 August 2011 at 1:06 pm

     “I think that you’ll find that, overall, the Christchurch economy is beginning to power up, compared with where it was on the morning of Wednesday 23 March”

     yeah, that’s certainly what the data shows.

     I think the graph shows there’s a major problem and we shouldn’t simply assume it will right itself.
     • insider 5.1.1

       3 August 2011 at 1:52 pm

       ISn’t the hundreds of millions if not billions being pumped into Chch buying properties, subsidising wages, propping up the local insurance company etc a kind of recognition of that?
       • Andy-Roo 5.1.1.1

         3 August 2011 at 5:39 pm

         Pretty sure the wage subsidy is over.

         But it probably did help to save jobs.

         As for the money going in to buying CHCH properties, the issue is that the majority of this is going to people who are losing houses in the eastern suburbs, or Kaipoi etc.

         These are traditionally lower cost housing areas. (The money is also not new money, it is replacing the value of assets that have been destroyed.)

         Sections in the west of town are already starting to rise in price as people try to relocate. And the sections and houses that are available were already on average more highly priced than those in the east. This means that those moving east to west are being loaded up with more debt.

         Lot’s more debt. I have heard figures from freinds in the red zone of 30 – 100K.

         So even given that there will be stimulus to the building industry from new construction and repairs, a large number of people are going to have a lot more debt – which will have an impact on the long term future and prosperity of CHCH.
     • joe bloggs 5.1.2

       4 August 2011 at 8:39 am

       @Blighty I think the graph shows there’s a major problem

       The biggest problem that the graph shows is the deliberate and dishonest misrepresentation of data.

       The scale of the Y axis doesn’t start at zero – it starts at 220,000 – and the scale ends at 240,000 making a small change in employment appear extreme.

       There’s also no effort to eliminate confounding variables such as the number of workers or the number of businesses that have left the region to relocate elsewhere.

       This manipulation gives Eddie’s post more strength than it deserves based on the actual numbers. In effect it’s a crock of shit.

       For more information read Darrell Huffs 1954 classic “How to Lie with Statistics”
   • The Voice of Reason 5.2

     3 August 2011 at 1:13 pm

     Interesting interview on 9 to noon this morning with a woman whose family is emigrating because King Gerry doesn’t know what he’s doing.
   • John D 5.3

     3 August 2011 at 2:21 pm

     The “free market” has stuff all to do with this.

     Do you think Central Planning would have helped? Look at the EQC fiasco
     • Blighty 5.3.1

       3 August 2011 at 3:41 pm

       you mean the EQC, which is dealing currently with the largest number of claims to a single insurer in history and is insuring that everyone gets their payout?

       I wonder how the free market would be coping? First thing, it would be denying cover to everyone it could. It never would have covered many for earthquakes, certainly not for subsequent earthquakes following the first one.
       • John D 5.3.1.1

         3 August 2011 at 4:30 pm

         EQC pissed away money like rainwater after the Sept quake. They were totally unprepared and ended up getting shafted by unscrupulous contractors.

         I don’t know, maybe it would all work under some great Maoist state, but it ain’t gonna happen so get over it.
         • Luxated 5.3.1.1.1

           3 August 2011 at 7:40 pm

           I think you should look at what is happening in Queensland with insurance for the floods before you even think that EQC is a fiasco.
   • TightyRighty 5.4

     3 August 2011 at 3:51 pm

     I spend a heap of time in christchurch talking with the people that makes things happen. Things are happening and will start roaring soon. the people leaving town because they don’t like how things are happening are the people who aren’t getting involved to make things happening. it’s the old “if you don’t participate, don’t complain” argument.

     The CBD is moving to the south and west, businesses are looking at employing, if not actually doing so just yet. Properties are being developed and realistic arrangements are being reached, unlike the panic buying after the february earthquake. The general mood in the satellite towns of christchurch is optimistic. the people who grumble are the same people who always do, and probably have their hand out all the time too. Six months more, then it’s away. amazing that the economy grew in a period when the near destruction of the second largest city should have ensured negative gdp growth.
     • Andy-Roo 5.4.1

       3 August 2011 at 5:41 pm

       ” the people who grumble are the same people who always do,”

       Hey Tighty – be careful where you are pointing that wild accusation.

       Wouldn’t want any bullshit blowing back on you.
     • mik e 5.4.2

       4 August 2011 at 12:21 am

       On the back of Record Commodity prices. Don’t forget the record numbers going to Australia they will never come back .With decent family credits, better super, better wages, better management.GERRYBROWNLEE I presume Tighty SUDONAME
   • mik e 5.5

     4 August 2011 at 12:16 am

     National is relying on another housing bubble.House prices in Auckland , leaky homes,Quake rebuild.Re balancing of the economy is not going to happen Mat. The Productive Sector is going to be shafted once again by National Just looking for votes .This bubble will create inflation which will push up the cost of borrowing and likewise the dollar
6. John D 6

   3 August 2011 at 2:18 pm

   I guess the ChCh job market will pick up once the rebuild starts.
   Those in the Red Zone have been given the option of the taxpayer bailout or the insurance route. Once they make this call, then there will be a surge in building.

   Similarly, when the current Orange zones get assessed, there will be a similar surge.

   Maybe, also, this graph has something to do with the FX rate. Exporters are getting stung right now(in fact that graph looks the same shape as my Excel plot of GBP/NZD over the last month)
   • Colonial Viper 6.1

     3 August 2011 at 3:51 pm

     I guess the ChCh job market will pick up once the rebuild starts.

     Shame we don’t have our own Ministry of Works.

     rebuild would be well underway now with thousands of extra employed in Christchurch, from Christchurch.

     At this rate sfa will be done by this time next year.
     • Just Right 6.1.1

       3 August 2011 at 4:15 pm

       You obviously don’t live in Christchurch CV. If you did you would realise that there have been in excess of 7000 aftershocks since last September… For example, much of the sewer/drainage work that was done after September had to be re-done in Feb, and repaired again in June.. Ministry of Works would be in the same position…

       Sounds like you hanker for the ‘good old days’ CV…
       • Colonial Viper 6.1.1.1

         3 August 2011 at 11:09 pm

         Yeah man I hanker for the ‘good old days’ alright, with an extra topping of hot democratic socialism.

         Better than the bankster occupied sold-off near future for the top 1% that you are pushing for
   • Afewknowthetruth 6.2

     3 August 2011 at 6:10 pm

     Why would anyone want to rebiuld on a swamp that could be subject to further earth movement in a region which will be under [sea] water in a couple of decades?

     And why would anyone want to rebuild in Christchurch when the global economic system is in the early stage of implosion?
7. Just Right 7

   3 August 2011 at 2:34 pm

   I think it is amazing that unemployment has risen so little given the scale of destruction & social dislocation that has occurred as a result. Your point Eddie is? What would you have the Government do? Given the depth of the destruction, what would your solution be? Come on – don’t just throw stones, enlighten us with your creative ideas!

   TVOR – “Interesting interview on 9 to noon this morning with a woman whose family is emigrating because King Gerry doesn’t know what he’s doing”

   What a load of tripe. Do you really believe that someone would move their entire family overseas because of a view that a politician doesn’t know what he is doing? Pull the other one! That is nonsense…

   I happen to think Gerry is average at best, but I know I would not move my family away because of him…
   • Colonial Viper 7.1

     3 August 2011 at 3:53 pm

     Dont be such a lame ass supporter of hapless Government.

     The Japanese Government had 30,000 temporary homes built within 3 months of the Fukushima earthquake.

     Oue laissez faire “the free market has the answers” government is both clueless and planless.

     Christchurch is being left to wither on the vine.
8. ron 8

   3 August 2011 at 3:30 pm

   @Just Right
   However one might move because the man charged with the job of leading the response to the disaster that has befallen your region is so incompetant that one can’t see any way other than moving to mitigate the adverse effects of the disaster on one’s family. One might consider staying if one felt that the the person charged with leading the response had a clue.
9. Just Right 9

   3 August 2011 at 3:42 pm

   Ron… sorry but still don’t buy it. What I do think is this is a partisan attack, nothing more, nothing less.

   Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Gerry is much chop either. Neither do I give much credence to a partisan beat up on National Radio
   • Colonial Viper 9.1

     3 August 2011 at 3:55 pm

     This is a partisan attack. Its an attack on a Government who doesnt give a shit that Christchurch is depopulating and is not helping those whose employment and small businesses have been hurt.

     Don’t give Gerry a pas for being such a lameass too, your weak critique is…weak.
10. ron 10

    3 August 2011 at 4:01 pm

    What he said.
    “Partisan attack”. More of it I say. We see and hear endless “isn’t Jonkey a dag?” stories. Partisan puff pieces. Good see a bit of balance back in the media.
    • Just Right 10.1

      3 August 2011 at 4:09 pm

      Didn’t hear the Nat radio interview in question, but am an avid listener… not sure you could call Nat Radio balanced Ron! State sponsored, left wing attack machine more like it! Left wing biased, BUT very informative and excellent quality all the same! Wouldn’t want it to disappear either.
      • ropata 10.1.1

        3 August 2011 at 9:34 pm

        What is left wing bias? You mean approaching issues with an open mind and not going psycho Tea Party any time the word “tax” is mentioned in a positive manner? Traditional NZ political values are a fair economy and decent social services, you call it left wing, but the fact is it’s the model for success.

        NZ has suffered right wing depradations for the last 40 years, Muldoon was left wing compared to the madness of Rogernomics and Ruthanasia. MMP won popularity as the only way to stop their destruction of our social fabric. Even Cullen’s policies were insipid and timid tiptoes along the path of building a future for all kiwis not just the elite.
11. Just Right 11

    3 August 2011 at 4:05 pm

    CV – Okay, so the Govt doesn’t give a shit. What do you class the significant money spent on paying businesses affected money to assist with wages? What do you call paying out GV on houses which in effect socialises individual losses? I don’t those two examples are signs the Govt doesn’t give a shit. If this Govt didn’t give a shit then neither of those things would have happened.

    What would your solution be? Come on, let’s hear it. What would you do given the current economic situation?

    I’m not giving Gerry a pass for being a lame arse. I’m merely calling BS on him being the sole reason why a person would uproot their family and emigrate.

    Christchurch has not been left to wither on the vine. The Government can not stop the effects of the earthquakes on people. You are naive if you think it can. No Government, no matter left or right would be able to, and neither should it.
    • Afewknowthetruth 11.1

      3 August 2011 at 8:36 pm

      ‘The Government can not stop the effects of the earthquakes on people.’

      That is where you are SO wrong.

      If governments of the past 50 years had been even slightly competent they would not have allowed the construction of totally unsuitable buildings in completely the wrong locations,, totally inappropriate infrastructure, totally unsuitable sewage arrangements, totlaly ridiculous energy arrangements etc.etc.

      Governments have been repeatedly warned about aspect of every calamity that is now hitting us, and governments have persistently ignored all the warnings and promoted whatever made a fast buck for speculators.

      That is why everything -economic arrangments, financial arrangments, the energy sector, the environment- absolutely everything is now unravelling: all the fundamentals are completely wrong.

      And still neither the present government nor the hopefuls in other political parties are listening.
      • Reality Bytes 11.1.1

        3 August 2011 at 8:43 pm

        Agreed this is where Just Right is Just Wrong. Of course there are many effects from earthquakes that could have been stopped if more effective building and safety standards were in-place and enforced by our government. If all buildings were strong enough not to collapse (or generate other hazards) in a similar scale earthquake, then the potential death/injury toll would have been far lower due to mitigation of avoidable human caused risk factors.
    • Colonial Viper 11.2

      3 August 2011 at 8:45 pm

      Hey Just Right I got plenty of solutions for the Government but my charge out rate is $400/hr + GST, but just for you I’ll give you a special rate of $500/hr + GST.
12. fatty 12

    3 August 2011 at 11:03 pm

    Despite all the job losses throughout the city, Fatty Brownstain has managed to maintain a few. Each day he spends in the city KFC has to hire 2 extra employees. One on the fried chicken, the other on the coleslaw.
    Apparently Fatty Brownstain thinks that a pottle of coleslaw will offset 2 pieces of chicken….no wonder he’s a fat sack of shit
13. henry olongo 13

    4 August 2011 at 12:26 am

    Smithfield, Hooter & Tightywearin righty don’t know shit. All mouth no trousers. Didn’t see them round here when the shit went down. Here in Shirleyhood theres heaps of empty houses, people looking for work or weighing up moving away. Meanwhile fletchers/placemakers/rich guy mates are carving it up. The ‘market’ is a feed of arse.
14. henry olongo 14

    4 August 2011 at 12:56 am

    Hvin a laugh bout just right(eous) comment that national radio is ‘left wing biased’!!! Yeah right. ‘Embedded’ Kathryn Ryan & Jim Mora won’t ever ask a hard question- it’s whimsical, pseudo-literati corporate radio sans the ads for middle income earners inhabiting leafy suburbs- Peter Dunne voters. In another life they’d be Palin voters, like tightwearer, hooter, j-righteous…

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