The latest Herald Digipoll presents quite a different picture to last night’s 3 News poll. While TV3 had the Left and Right blocs neck-and-neck with the Maori Party as kingmaker, the Herald has National still able to govern alone at 50.4% and 63 seats.
You can argue all you like over whether this result is plausible (personally I think it’s bollocks), but what’s clear is that something funny’s going on with the major polls. As 08wire puts it:
One of these polls is assuredly wrong.
It seems there are two camps. One the one hand we have Colmar Brunton/TVNZ and Herald/Digipoll, who are showing no major change during the campaign, and a likely solid National victory. Roy Morgan and TNS/TV3, on the other hand, show a tightening horse race between Labour and National, and a Maori Party dependent government.
From my experience and what I’m hearing from others on the ground the race is much tighter than the Herald Digipoll suggests, and a lot of soft National voters are swinging back to Labour, the Greens and even NZ First as the election nears.
Of course, that’s just anecdotal, but given this and what I’m hearing from my backchannels about internal polling, I wouldn’t put too much stock in polls that continue to put National at 50%.