- Date published:
11:31 am, November 29th, 2016 - 9 comments
Categories: Andrew Little, housing, labour - Tags: housing, housing affordability, housing crisis, interest rates, mortgage
Ahhh … remember this?
Nick Smith reckons Akld housing's more affordable now than before National came to power – https://t.co/IKMV2WmP6Q pic.twitter.com/H1gUQnbJ6T
— Morning Report (@NZMorningReport) April 28, 2016
Good times. It’s a mad claim based on dodgy figures which are in turn based on a very limited definition of “affordability”. How “affordable” is this?
Loans for first homes jump 43% in 2 years
The amount people are having to borrow for their first home has increased 43 percent in the last two years.
Reserve Bank figures show the average loan to a first-time buyer in October 2014 was $273,000. By last month, that had risen to $390,000.
The Labour Party is warning that young New Zealanders are carrying extraordinary levels of debt and are dangerously exposed to rising interest rates.
Leader Andrew Little said with a debt burden of $390,000 it did not take much of an upward change in interest rates to put real pressure on household budgets. …
Labour’s press release is here.
Oh and those interest rates? Heading up already:
Two more main-line banks raise more mortgage rates, returning for extras after hikes earlier in the month (and earlier in the week)
Mortgage rate rises are spreading to other banks quickly now. And some are coming back for rapid-fire repeat raises.
ASB is raising rates again today having previously raised them on November 5.
BNZ is back raising mortgage rates as well. In this cycle, they first raised them on November 8, and then again on November 21. …
A lot of people are going to get hit hard.
Obviously, those Reserve Bank figures are “nonsense” and fortunately Dr Nick Smith and John Key know the real figures. RBNZ and Treasury can just jump into the lake because they are spreading fake news! First-time home buyers have never had it so good in NZ and they stand to make a very healthy return on their investment. But if things ever did turn to custard those lovely big Ozzie banks will look after the poor wee unlucky mums & dads because it would be unfair if they were punished for things happening outside their control and not through their fault. [End of sarcasm]
Well lets simplify it. Its simple math. NZ Housing stock sits at about 1.65m houses.
Population about 4.5m
New migrants settling here 70,000/yr
Rate of completed “builds” per year 7500 to 8000 on a good day including small one bed/2 bedroom appartments built especially for international students & landlord/owners capital gain investment properties.
What properties are sitting empty and not occuppied whilst sitting on trademe?
Its not a consenting issue, never has been.
38 third tier lenders dissappearred in the crash leaving a $25b hole in capital investment that still hasnt been taken up by banks or investment bankers or offshore investors …
So any party talking up a storm of how they’re going to cure the issues of homelessness and poverty ect,needs to address three key factors which are;
A massive Capital injection
and a fourth one …. who can build because the private sector can’t.
Tell every young person you know that National are happy to see them locked in debt serfdom for their entire lives. Whereas the children of National party grandees will get an inheritance sufficient to see them through quite happily. Suggest to them that it’s time to organise and get very angry with National, the banks and speculative owners of ‘rentals’.
hold on Ab
nobody made them take out these loans and as interest rates tick upwards its only the fools who be-leaved they would never rise.
sadly the damage is done the bubble is in the process of popping the collective insanity and frenzy will be replace with dis-pair a lot of people are about to loose everything they have including kiwi saver. how many used there homes as atm machines ?there have been plenty of warnings about debt since 2008 did we learn from the gfc nonono .Between 2008 and now i took the window of opportunity to pay off all debt and i look forward to reaping the benefits of higher interest rates because it was savers who subsidized the borrowers so tuff !iam all for hanging speculators and stripping them of all there assets.first home buyers sadly have been sucked in professor steve keen has said in the end there will need to be some form of debt jubilee because debts that cant be paid wont be paid
“how many used there homes as atm machines ?”
I see this referred to a lot, but have seen no figures or evidence for it.
Renters in Auckland often do not have security of tenancy, and many have put their efforts into buying a home – despite the cost – because of it.
Rising costs and austere budgets may mean that many just manage to pay all their bills – including the mortgage with little left over for savings.
If an unexpected hit comes – they have a choice – high interest credit loans or use of credit cards, or using the equity on their home. It is drawing on their mortgage – but it is understandable, and not the equivalent of using a ATM for implied frivolity.
Point taken, the banks have sourced a lot of the funds off shore ,when Intrest rates reached zero internationally it was the end of the road for the 30 year decline in bond prices Intrest rates can only go up .incomes have to increase if house hold debt is to be paid down .but if you borrowed 9 times income or even 5 your income your in deep trouble the banks media real estate have sucked people into this market free gifts for loans . 95 percent mortgages .if you remember they opened up kiwi saver to confiscation on default a couple of mouths ago they knew
It’s planned .and there should be anger at the banks national government speculators the greedy for allowing this situation to develop its deeply unfair
And has the potentual to take out the economy.
any strategy that gets the young out to vote has to be a positive …and highlighting their potential electoral muscle to improve their own futures re housing (especially in light of their reduced international opportunities) would be bloody good placebo start.
The Banks are very reluctant to lend at the present moment, does that tell you anything. Likewise who has the capital here in NZ to build new houses?
Land prices have got so high in Auckland that it is questionable whether it is viable to spec build unless you already own the land?
do your research before you borrow. good life lesson.