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notices and features - Date published:
7:00 am, May 19th, 2019 - 59 comments
Categories: Deep stuff -
Tags: the future
This post is a place for positive discussion of the future.
An Open Mike for ideas, solutions and the discussion of the possible.
The Big Picture, rather than a snapshot of the day’s goings on. Topics rather than topical.
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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Susan Krumdieck cuts through the auroch-dung and slaps some engineers around. Her words are profound and grounded. Listen and weep
You can’t beat physics.
Some great food for thought here.
What I like about Dr Krumdieck is her optimism, an optimism founded on staring into the abyss where others fear to look, and then making a sober assessment of our choices.
Despite the irrefutable physical facts she lays out, Dr Krumdieck is still not ready to give up, just yet.
Thanks Robert.
You're welcome, Jenny. Susan is clear-sighted and resolute. She has had, I'm supposing, to go through the despair stage where she's had to face that her earlier aspirations; saving the planet through engineering wizardry, won't do it. The ideas expressed in this video are post-glum, I reckon, and thereby useful to us all.
robert
Yeah well. Despite all the downplaying of the global economy by all of the normal peoples, the kiwi currency, Aussie currency, US currency and so on have been going sideways for the last four years.
If you can't transition off of oil at $12.50 per barrel while at the same time electrifying the motor pool and building up ethanol based fertilisers from forestry waste. If we don't hit those bench marks then we are a no chance of preventing the 20% permanent reeducation of the GDP outlines in the UN IPCC report on climate.
If you're sitting behind a computer screen thinking about trading news-headlines, or trading commodities or what ever, just trying to realise 3% or 6% then think again. That is just a hiding to nowhere.
If you think anyone is going to make money on fixed incomes in this environment then, well. Good luck ya. There are plenty of people who are way smarter than me and are running big financial houses while looking at performance of their portfolios thinking this is just dog shit.
If it's that difficult for them then its doubly difficult for everyone else. Funnily enough if anyone is sitting at home tired of the tweets, tired of the headline about China, tired of BREXIT and tired of working out what a trade war is. I think we are going to have a better time looking at the revenues of our own kiwi companies because by and large they've got lots of cash and low borrowing. I think kiwi business is a great resource and no one needs to look very hard to find it, and it will inform people on how we are doing in the economy and trade wars. Which is pretty solid really.
In saying all that and let's forget about what Trump, Xi, May or Corbyn may or may not have said because it's all trash. There advisers are feeding them trash. They've been feeding them trash for the last 3 years because some octopus may have swam into one of two boxes. 99.something percent tweeting and commenting about the economy and trade have absolutely zero idea. And 100% at TVNZ / MSM have absolutely no clue at all about the economy but it's okay because they pay people to talk about it.
So what is the logical response to all of this for anyone who needs to make money, and well. I think the best thing to do about BREXIT or what ever, is to put trade to one side. There is absolutely no edge in playing trader. And any one who thinks they're going to make a lot of money out of BREXIT or trading in a trade war, I mean what ever, get a life. Seriously find something else to do, you'll make a lot more money.
In saying that so what has been going on in Britain? And against most people's expectations the British political class has managed to pile up even more dog shit. I would argue that out of The US vs China and Britain vs Germany that China and Germany have been hit the hardest. So the knee jerks you'll hear from are guys looking at this is if China and Germany are hurting then you listen to them and sell commodities and short Rio Tinto, BHP and so which is one dimensional with out even connecting the dots.
So iron ore is trading at about $95 a ton and Iv got it as a good chance at hitting $115 over the summer stock take, and coal is up. And so China and Germanys / ECB response is okay let's open up the credit taps fiscally which is pretty much all they do to respond which has this enormous pull on commodities and some energy and I would argue that oil has a bit of a rally in response.
The question is what will happen next? If you think you've got an inside track on how trade wars will play out then good luck, I certainly don't. Okay so China and Germany are showing weakness and New Zealand is also showing weakness but steel production is up 10% and no one would have thought steel would be up this year.
So what's going on is, yeah. Things are humming along and central governments are directing big banks to lend and then telling local government what to do with that money to get the infrastructure jumps primed again so that's what I think.
Well, you've got me completely bamboozled, Sam.
I think you have hit on the magic panacea button there Robert – bamboo. Commenters have been mentioning it. Have we run it past the cognoscenti for okayness for at least some uses in NZ, perhaps on a managed basis so it wouldn't run out of control, which has always been in my mind as a downside of it?
I'm growing several different varieties and love them all; who wouldn't love a giant grass! Mine don't run; they're clumpers and grow close to mother and don't stray.
oh names please.
my friend has this bamboo at her rental and it is every where……..under the deck, around the walking stones every where…i would like to not plant this bamboo.
As long as you've got good crop selection the yields should be there. Flax bush ought to be in the mix. There's so many non plastic recipes out there. Was using an Aussie takeaway container brand called BioPak that uses compressed corn to make containers, cups what ever, of all sizes. It's actually illegal for retailers to use plastic packaging in WA and the industry is quite advanced.
Well if that isnt an irrefutable argument for rationing I dont know what is
Environment Canterbury and the Nelson City Council have declared a state of climate change emergency in their domains; what gives??
Local Government New Zealand and Central Government reintroducing the Four Well-beings; what's going on??
nothing. lipservice.
It's all good.
You may recall, Sabine that the anti-nuclear ship movement got their first political break-throughs at the local body level, with local body councils around the country declaring themselves 'nuclear weapons free'.
Most obviously nuclear ships were not going to visit the Manukau City Council, or other local bodies. And Local Body Councils, who declared themselves nuclear free were heavily criticised as just being meaningless gestures.
With human beings, perception is everything.
Never forget the power of symbolism.
For several years there was a big official sign outside Auckland International Airport beside the motorway, reading 'Welcome to Nuclear Free Manukau City'. Much to the hatred of the Right, who eventually had it torn down.
Oh come on Sabine – don't tread on everything positive if it doesn't fit to your ideas of what needs to be done.
i am not pessimistic, i am a realist.
and so far nothing labour has done let me to believe that this will amount to anything more then lipservice and crumbs, and believe me i am very happy about the crumbs, they made the life of a few friends of mine much easier.
you can rejoice and consider it positive, while i go meh.
and besides, it is an emergency and has been for a while now.
so to lipservice i would add cutting their losses’
Everyone believes themself a realist!
Sure, but there are so many realities it is impossible to know which is most realistic.
What makes you happy Sabine?
Curious
or are you another one who believes happiness is overrated
Or happiness is immoral if the world’s not perfect (in your eyes)
There's a hint of 'pile onto Sabine' in the air here but I'm sure it's unintended.
I like this from francesca:
"What makes you happy Sabine?"
I'm interested to know that also.
food, music, honesty – even when brutal, love, friends, dogs, critters, spider, gardening, cheese, soft air, misty rain, mountains, live, cake, chocolate, rivers, bicycles, books, children, old people, lavendar, lilacs, roses, daisy flowers and butter cups, apples from the trees, canning peaches, walnut marcipan with a crap apple jelly on top dipped in 80% dark chocolate, the nuns that took me up and gave me a save place when home became dangerous, lentil dhal, …..to much to list actually.
what do i don't like?
crying over spilled beans – no purpose – cook something else,
pretending that the past was so much better when it was not – or at the very best only for a few
keeping up wit hte joneses
feel good bullshit so that we don't have to actually do something
forcing people to have children in the name of a 'god'
not locking up people who abuse others
cowardice when its not needed – no gummibears for thee
feel good bullshit so that we don't have to actually do something
the government of the day.
forcing people to have children in the name of a 'god'
the right wing god-botherers
not locking up people who abuse others
the state authorities.
cowardice when its not needed – no gummibears for thee
state sponsored do-gooders.
You are describing the establishment of Aotearoa NZ there.
I like this question from Sabine after 112 111. Could you name the safe bamboos Robert – the ones that don't shoot everywhere?
And also can ones that shoot be useful and worth the effort of containing them? Perhaps in a an open ended oil drum dug deep into the earth!! Or steer clear – game not worth the candle stuff.
i think happiness comes when we start accepting things as they are rather tehn we want them to be.
i also believe that this moment when we stop hoping for the best, but rather see what is is real and now that is the moment we start changing stuff ourself and with that comes happiness.
and today i planted some trees and mulched some others and i continued to build on my hugelculture and now i am drinking coffee and i ate a lovely home baked \ginger slice with my own candied ginger in it and i feel rather sweaty, dirty, and happy.
Sounds like a good life Sabine
Are you going to offer Jacinda Ardern a free course on Permaculture? Can,t think how else thinking at the top will ever catch up !
Janet Are you suggesting that our PM would be helped by this, and then it would set an example to everyone in NZ? Because that sounds like a good idea, and though to some extent it would be symbolic as Jenny How refers to, that symbol could be just what is needed.
Are you suggesting that Jenny should offer to do this? Why don't you set something up yourself with the local Permaculture or Organic group, or instead see what is available in Wellington and see if she can spend a little time each week working on it with others learning the same. What a feel-good idea, and while symbolic also practical and good for us all.
Jenny – could we arrange an audience for Jacinda, with Charles?
That'd do it.
Forcing me to think again Robert – being enigmatic. Do you mean that while PM Jacinda is overseas on a roll, she should meet Prince Charles who has been into organics or similar for decades? I
f so, why don't you write to him yourself Robert and ask if he would be okay with such a meeting, with the idea of promoting this in both NZ and UK as a start. The rest of the world susceptible to that different way of horti and agriculture would be an added bonus. What about you giving it a go Robert?
Oddly enough, grey, we've got a letter to Charles already drafted, though I hadn't thought to include Jacinda.
You beaut.
Good question.
How will thinking at the top catch up?
Obviously those at the top have more power to change things those of us at the bottom.
But we do have the power to influence them.
Obviously one way to influence our leaders is voting, another is activism, another is lobbying.
Whichever method, or all of the above, we choose.
All politics is pressure.
ECan is waking up to the fact that the electorate is about ready to lynch them for granting Cloud Ocean water permits that will compete with the city supply.
There's been an interesting discussion of psylocybin on The hard change of forestry page this morning. My only experience was a few trips on it back in the seventies. I noticed it had a more fluid, organic, feel to the experience (compared to LSD).
Relevance to the future & how to get there derives from the necessity of transcending belief systems, which lock us into the past. The leading edge of the boomers took their rebellion global, and psychedelic drugs were the primary catalyst. Establishment belief systems were transcended, but only by around 5% of the whole in that generational zeitgeist. So how do subsequent generations escape their mental prisons?
Answer: they don't. They like those prisons too much. Consequently they must experience climate change as a natural result of not preventing it. They can blame the 95% of the boomers who reverted to the mainstream as much as they like – that just postpones admission of their own generational failures. And when survival means getting jobs from the establishment, we can't fairly blame them.
So the crunch time coming is driven as much by evaporation of jobs as by climate change. Escaping this reality by using mind-altering agents of nature remains a useful option for desperate people, but that method works best if you enter the process with the right attitude.
Escapism is essentially negative as a lifestyle choice, even when clearly a positive option to evade a nasty reality. It's the skill you apply to the insights gained from time spent attuned to the deeper dimensions of reality that makes the vital difference to your future. Think of yourself as submersible: time afloat on the surface alternating with time spent going deep is the optimal praxis.
DF To be fair the boomer generation did not see how the enlightenment from the drug generation could be introduced into the working present.
And powerful profit-making forces did not encourage change. We can see how strong this phalanx of conservative narrow people are now. Our government seems to be captured by them to the extent of being unable to make timely actions to turn down climate change trendlines and prepare for unavoidable and destructive weather spasms.
The only thing that happens when the financial and capitalist interested act quickly is that they go all pragmatic and throw out the baby with the bathwater. The vulnerable suffer because the powerful wouldn't act in a precautionary manner when it would have made a great difference; a small change with exponential effects as posited in chaos theory.
I believe you are entirely correct, Dennis.
Living like the Victorians?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DDO0gKuVYAAzgHE.jpg:large
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2672390/
Thanks Poission, a wonderfully informative resource – food for thought.
and NZ has two more trees. May they live long and prosper.
cake and coffee time now.
Thanks, Sabine.
Hugel mounds hugelculture if you haven't come across it before.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Th0-nMd5kKE Good info and clear and good video.
Warning on what not to do first, and then second one showing a method. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI6qVKp5Z5U
I made a couple of those, but I didn't know about the official version (much larger, the originals were by Sepp Holzer). I called them tree graves because they are where I buried privet trees in mounds with small swale pathways. A lot of (inedible to my knowledge ie mostly don't know so don't eat!) fungi grows on them over the years.
I buried mostly green wood and they've still been quite fertile. It is a useful technique if you have spare rubbish wood, but quite labour intensive.
Getting some food growing can be very easy.
Mow lawn/ add manure and minerals, top with card overlapping to block light, then thick mulch – fast and easy. Use handfuls of compost to plant directly into holes you make in the mulch, cut the card directly below the plants you plant. Weed free, food's growing, fast, easy, done.
Feeling very pleased with myself.
I spent the majority of the day putting together a T.L.U.D. charcoal retort kiln. I only have to insulate it tomorrow and light it up.
Approx 140litres of biochar yield.
Fingers crossed for a first fire up tomorrow.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RXMUmby8PpU
It's all on for the Htgt crew!
Nice one. Today I prepped some char to become biochar.
Hold on tight, it get's technical.
I got the crushed charcoal and spread it in the chicken coop.
I throw loads of mulch for the chooks to scratch and devour and turn to poop. This is where I collect rich materials for compost from. The char reduces odors, gases etc both in the chicken coop and the composting process.
Today, my son, with a little help from me, steam-bent his macrocarpa "trellis" that will become the walls of a yurt, in a purpose-built steamer, then bent the hot things over a wooden jig designed to hold the bend as the frame cools. I thought, and here's the connection, we should make a pile of charcoal to burn under the copper cylinder in order to create more heat and steam. We'll do that. Great to hear what gsays has done. It inspired me.
Last week, on How To Get There 12/5/19' Greywarshark raised a series of related questions.
<a href="https://thestandard.org.nz/how-to-get-there-12-5-19/#comment-1616148">https://thestandard.org.nz/how-to-get-there-12-5-19/#comment-1616148</a>
I couldn’t agree more. I have said it many times before, “Actions speak louder than words”; Governments don’t respond to words, (few organisations do). Governments and the media, and people in general, respond to action. It is the only thing that really counts.
What have I been doing?
The burning of coal has been identified by leading climate experts as the number one cause of anthropogenic climate change.
Some time ago I decided to do what I could, to put an end to all coal mining in this country.
In pursuit of this goal, I personally spearheaded a successful two year campaign to stop the construction of the Mangatangi Coal MIne, South of Auckland.
Building on this success, I have recently been asked to organise a similar campaign to stop the expansion of the Rotowaro coal mine in Huntly.
The purpose of this campaign is not just to stop one, or two, (or more), relatively small coal mines, but to raise the continuation of coal mining in this country as a political issue, in the highest political offices in the land.
The campaign against the Rotowaro coal mine will be significantly different to the campaign against the Mangatangi coal mine. Rotowaro is an existing coal mine, with an established workforce. To close this mine down, we will also have to achieve a just transition for the workforce.
Shut down Rotowaro, achieve a just transition for the workforce.
This is the goal plan.
Or as Greywarshark put it:
“Here are some great recipes which I have actually made and can serve today. Try this. And give them a taste of what we want.”
This is my proven recipe for giving them a taste of what we want.
Thanks Jenny H That coal mining debate keeps everyone on their toes, and thinking about what else. Good stuff.
I understand there is a lovely walk in the vicinity of Rotowaro. Have you been there?
what the fuck is your point? Do people entering the workforce magically create jobs? Do they not compete for jobs with higher qualification thresholds?
I have, but only with other activists to scope out the open cast mine site. What we saw was a blight on the landscape. But I take your word for it, when you say that there is a lovely walk in the vicinity of Rotowaro. I wouldn't mind walking it one day. (Hopefully it is not gobbled up in the planned huge expansion)
Relating to some mushroom stuff that was being talked about earlier – Psilocybin.
I caught the name on a tweet that Joe 90 put up 20/5 OM and am putting the link up I hope. FYI.
https://www.inverse.com/article/55918-lsd-psilocybin-alcohol-addiction-stop?fbclid=IwAR2PY2w1As6jvCyN5_mdo_OJ-Cmu-SFT7U25xISymZRctC4RzBmeSTMa9GI
Link to Radionz 21/5.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018695820/how-to-think-like-a-plant
A window into the world of plant decision-making, without the benefit of a brain. British plant developmental biologist Dame Ottoline Leyser talks to Kathryn about her research which uses the hormonal control of shoot branching to investigate plant decision-making mechanisms.
She says we face huge problems in the face of feeding a growing world population and amid increasing environmental challenges meaning that GM and genome editing techniques must be part of the solution.
There was a lively post on 5/18/2019 on TS called The Hard Change of Forestry from Advantage. And probably has stuff that readers here would want to see/access.
https://thestandard.org.nz/the-hard-change-of-forestry/
The Toilet – An Unspoken History – fascinating.
2012 doco from BBC 4.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018696382/toxic-debate-is-methyl-bromide-use-back-on-the-table
Sixteen months out from a deadline to effectively ban the use of methyl bromide as a fumigant in the export log industry, the Environmental Protection Agency or EPA is to undertake a reassessment of its use.
It's an ozone depleting gas that's toxic to humans, and by October 2020 is only to be used in conjunction with recapture technology.
An application for use of an alternative, ethanedinitrile or EDN, is still underway after 2 years – and while it's not as bad for the environment, it still carries risk in the way its used.
Joining Kathryn is Don Hammond, chairman of industry group STIMBR, Soil & Health Association of NZ spokesperson and former Green MP Steffan Browning and Dr David McBride, an associate professor in Occupational and Environmental Medicine.
Carried over from OM 24/5 thanks WtB.
WeTheBleeple 1
24 May 2019 at 7:49 am
Taro has finally been vindicated as a staple plant of early Maori in NZ. Now can we get back to growing it?
https://www.auckland.ac.nz/en/news/2019/04/09/new-fossil-evidence-claims-first-discovery-of-taro-in-mori-garde.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=at_aucklandmay19&utm_term=hum,his,res,art
I was tasked by local Iwi to try and grow the black Colocasia esculenta as they'd 'forgotten how' (told they never did grow it as they could not and were rightly frustrated with such nonsense as it was on the land). Many trials later the plant showed me how it works.
In a bowl in the land, where after rain it holds water, but can still dry out. Wherever the white (funeral aka peace aka calla) lily grows. In partial shade. In shelter.
Find a sheltered concave spot where the lily grows. Place Taro plants with the lilys, watch the Taro take over.
For the non-black varieties, similar rules, but extra care making sure the place gets water. There are many varieties but these are what you'd typically encounter. Both can cope with dry for a period, the black is much hardier but only when in the right spot (ousting lilys).
What I like most about this plant is that it is a part of the landscape. It looks really good, and it doesn't have to be decimated to be enjoyed (just thin the big stuff and eat that), this can be a staple, or emergency supplies.
Does well beneath bananas and nut trees so very low maintenance polyculture is also an option.
Grow some history, serve with corn beef – YUM.
Cheers GWS, I'll add Jerry's talk too, as it is very enlightening for prospective growers.
50- Shades of Green – bwaghorn spotted this and has some good stuff on tree planting etc to watch/participate.
https://www.facebook.com/50shadesofgreen.nz/
A week or two ago I had not heard of psilocybin – now there are references to it everywhere.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/2018696709/matthew-johnson-magic-mushrooms-as-medicine
Matthew W. Johnson is an Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. He studies the risks and benefits of the use of psychoactive drugs.
He was part of a team that evaluated the safety and abuse potential of psilocybin, the psychoactive component of magic mushrooms.
They recommended that it should be re-categorized from a schedule 1 drug – one with no known medical potential-to a schedule IV drug, which means it could be used as a sleep aid, a smoke cessation aid and in certain anti-anxiety and depression drugs – but with tight controls.
The advance comes as the US city of Denver has just voted to decriminalise recreational use of magic mushrooms.