Kerr shows how the Right lie to themselves
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5:33 pm, September 21st, 2008 - 42 comments
Categories: im/migration, national, spin -
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The Business Roundtable held another in their series of forums on political issues targeted at young people on Thursday. The aim is obviously to get along the type of kid who goes to his (sorry for the gendering but they were 90% male) commerce classes in a suit that he can’t yet fill and give him an ideological steer. It’s pretty funny and there’s free pizza and beer, so worth going along to.
This forum was on the dreaded brain drain. Roger Kerr hosted a usual and the panelists were the CTU economist Peter Conway and Opus head Kevin Thompson. I can’t make up my mind if Kerr’s presentation was amusing or outrageous. The man’s a trained economist, he knows statistics and he knows when he’s mis-using them, so it speaks to a deep arrogance that he would present flawed statistics to what is, after all, meant to be a friendly audience; on the other hand, it’s amusing that none of them seemed to see the flaws in the numbers they were being shown but, then, there’s none so blind…
Three examples of how Kerr used faulty figures to make an argument about the mythical brain drain:
He did not show the historical trend in migration figures, he just said there were spikes in net emigration 1979, 1989, 2002 and now – he failed to mention that these ‘spikes’ are actually just peaks in a cycle and that the earlier peaks were much larger in terms of % of the population than the present one. He also failed to show that peaks in the net migration were correlated with anything else.
Which didn’t stop him concluding that the wage gap is the problem (despite the head of Opus not mentioning wages once in his talk on retention strategies and studies showing we, like Australia, like Canada etc don’t have a brain drain but lose a small % of people representing a cross-section of skills and gain more highly skilled workers) and presented a graph of average full time equivalent wages in Australia and New Zealand. He knew this isn’t adjusted for purchasing power parity, that one should uses medians rather than averages because a situation as in the 1990s when the rich get richer and most people get poorer can show a rising average when most people are actually worse off, and that just look at FTE wages is useless if other sources of income are changing, like the removal of overtime and penalty rates in the 1990s, or if the composition of the workforce changes (ie casualisation and high unemployment in the 1990s) but chose to misrepresent the numbers that suited his argument – ie. that the wage gap grew less in the 1990s than the 2000s thanks to de-reguation.
He then brought up the productivity growth figures. The argument being if we are to raise wages we need more wealth (a higher GDP) and the way to do that is to increase productivity (through lower taxes, weaker work rights, and less regulation). Of course, that’s falsely premised. We know that growth is not passed on to workers in wage rises automatically it only happens if workers have a good bargaining position (eg low unemployment and strong work rights). It also seems somewhat odd that we should try to catch up to the wages paid in Australia, where there are stronger work rights, by further weakening our work rights. But the clincher is this: productivity per worker grew at something like 2.7% per annum under National and has grown 1.5% per annum per worker under Labour but GDP per capita barely rose under National and has grown much faster under Labour. How can GDP growth be faster when productivity growth is lower? Because under National we had hundreds of thousands of workers unemployed and lots of capital sitting ideal – only the highest quality workers and capital were used. Labour has succeeded in bringing New Zealand to practically full employment but that means lowering the overall quality of the workforce which makes productivity growth appear slower. According the Brian Easton, a study of workers employed in both the 1990s and 2000s showed their productivity growth rate did not change.
Of course, Kerr knew all that when he made be presentation but he chose to do it anyway. The interesting thing was that he was trying to fool young Tories (and succeeding, a smattering of questions from Lefties had him floundering by the tory-boys just swallowed it). Why lie to your own side, why not all just believe in something that is supported by the facts instead? I think there’s two answers. One is that the brain drain argument is veiled xenophobia. National certainly dog-whistles xenophobia when it talks about the number of ‘native-born New Zealanders’ who are overseas; if so many ‘real Kiwis’ weren’t leaving the proportion of the population from non-European ethnic groups would be smaller. For the second answer we have to look not at the ‘problem’ by the proposed solutions. The Right’s remedy is tax-cuts, weaker work rights, lower government spending, and weaker regulation. No serious person could think these would really solve a brain drain were there one – is anyone really leaving over $20 a week, $1000 a year, of tax? Would weakening work rights somehow see workers paid more? of course not. But it does just so happen that the ‘solutions’ proposed by National and others like Kerr for the brain drain are their solution for everything from growth rates to heartburn and the people who would certainly gain from lower tax, smaller government, weaker work rights (=lower wages), and less regulation are the big business owners that employ Kerr and finance the National party. Funny that.
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- Release: Growing pressure to scrap Section 7AA Repeal Bill
The newly released Section 7AA Repeal Bill's select committee report is further evidence that the Government should scrap it. ...5 days ago
- Government’s move to monetise access to nature a slippery slope
The Green Party is voicing serious concerns over the Government’s proposal to charge for access to public conservation land, released today. ...1 week ago
- Green Party condemns the passage of Treaty Principles Bill
The Green Party condemns the passing of the Treaty Principles Bill at first reading, and is clear that the fight is not over. ...1 week ago
- Stand Up for Te Tiriti
Te Tiriti o Waitangi is our country’s founding document. It forms the basis of the relationship between Māori and the Crown – and the Aotearoa New Zealand we live in today. ...1 week ago
- Release: Over 15,000 sign Labour’s open letter to Luxon
As the hīkoi to Parliament continues, Labour has sent an open letter to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in a last-ditch attempt to get him to kill the Treaty Principles Bill. ...1 week ago
- Fast Track Bill threatens environment, climate and reputation
The fast-track legislation passing its second reading in Parliament is another step towards environmental ruin. ...1 week ago
- Greens join King’s Counsel in calling for Treaty Principles Bill to be abandoned
The Prime Minister must answer the call from a group of senior lawyers of the King’s Counsel to abandon the divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...1 week ago
- Chris Hipkins’ apology statement to state and faith-based care survivors
...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour formally apologises to state and faith-based care survivors
Labour joins with the Government in unreservedly apologising for the abuse, neglect and trauma including torture in state and faith-based care and for ignoring the voices of survivors for too long. ...2 weeks ago
- Green Party stands in support of survivors of abuse in care
Today, the Green Party stands alongside the survivors of abuse in state care and faith-based care as the Government issues an historic apology. ...2 weeks ago
- Green Party calls for conscience vote on Treaty Principles Bill
The Green Party has written to the Speaker of the House requesting he enable a personal vote on the Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt move to exclude journalist risks chilling effect
The Green Party is alarmed by the Government’s move to exclude a journalist from covering this week’s apology for the survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care. ...2 weeks ago
- Without action, an apology will be empty air
For tomorrow’s apology to survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care to hold any water, the Government must not pursue the same policies that drove the abuse in the first place. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Concerns remain over tobacco interference
Concerns about the tobacco industry’s ability to interfere in government policy making remain, despite the inability of the Office of the Auditor-General to investigate the Government’s decision to halve the excise tax on heated tobacco products. ...2 weeks ago
- Urgent wake-up call on climate
The Climate Change Commission’s latest advice indicates Aotearoa needs to be stepping up on climate action. ...2 weeks ago
- Green MP’s Meme-ber’s Bill set to save the world
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- Release: Poroporoaki: Ta Robert (Bom) Gillies
Kua hinga te manawa kairākau o Te Rua Tekau Ma Waru Tiwhatiwha te po! Kakarauru i te po! Ka rapuhia kei hea koe kua riro! Haere e te Ika a Whiro ki o tini hoa kua ngaro atu ki te Pō ...2 weeks ago
- Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principles Bill
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principle...
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- NZ must pursue independent foreign policy
The Green Party says the need is greater than ever for Aotearoa New Zealand to pursue an independent foreign policy. ...2 weeks ago
- Child Protection Investigation Unit established
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Ka nui te mihi kia koutou. Ka mihi ki te mana whenua ko Ngāti Whātua Ōrākei. Kia ora and good morning everyone. Thank you Fran and Simon for inviting me here today, and importantly your leadership of this forum over several years now. I want to acknowledge David Gehrenbeck, Deputy ...12 hours ago
- Record number of submissions received on granny flat proposal
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- District Court Judge appointed
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Rebecca Guthrie as a District Court Judge. Judge Guthrie was admitted to the bar in 1997 following her graduation from the University of Canterbury in 1996 (LLB, BA). She commenced her legal career in Hastings in 1997 before moving to London in ...14 hours ago
- Appointments strengthen Predator Free 2050
The latest Predator Free 2050 Board appointments will help to strengthen biodiversity efforts across Aotearoa New Zealand, Conservation Minister Tama Potaka says. Mr Potaka today announced two appointments to the Board of Directors of Predator Free 2050 Limited, a key player in the wider Predator Free 2050 Programme. “The Predator ...16 hours ago
- New facility in Christchurch will improve the lives of young New Zealanders
Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey today opened Kahurangi, an innovative and much-needed facility for Canterbury’s Child, Adolescent, and Family Mental Health Services. “The new state of the art outpatient facility opened today will be a gamechanger for the way mental health is delivered for young people in Canterbury,” says Mr ...16 hours ago
- Driver safety screens to be installed on Auckland buses
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed news from the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) that bus driver protection screens will be installed across Auckland’s bus fleet by 2026.“The Government is committed to improving the safety of working environments for bus drivers, and Budget 2024 allocated $15 million of Crown funding over ...16 hours ago
- Government action provides Southland farmers more time to meet plan requirements
The Government is taking action to ensure Southland farmers and growers are not affected by unreasonable regional farm plan deadlines, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard say.“Cabinet has agreed to provide more time for farmers and growers to comply with regional rules ...1 day ago
- Bill reaffirms Government’s commitment to crack down on serious youth offending
The Oranga Tamariki (Responding to Serious Youth Offending) Bill had its first reading at Parliament today. The Bill reaffirms the Government’s commitment to crack down on serious youth offending, Minister for Children Karen Chhour says. “In recent years we have seen an unacceptable spike in youth offending. “This Bill makes ...1 day ago
- Critical milestones for earthquake buildings review
Fairer, more sensible rules about managing earthquake risks are a step closer with the passing of legislation and the appointment of an independent chair to provide expert advice, Minister for Building and Construction Chris Penk says. “The Government is committed to reinvigorating our cities and regions to support economic growth, ...1 day ago
- State of the art radiology machine for Auckland
People in Northland and Auckland will benefit from a new machine for cancer treatment installed at the Regional Cancer and Blood Service at Auckland City Hospital. The MV5 linear accelerator, or LINAC machine, officially opened today targets cancer tumours with pinpoint accuracy. Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says this new, ...1 day ago
- Foreign Minister to visit Europe
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will travel to Europe for high-level talks with France, Germany and the United Kingdom next week. "Since taking office almost a year ago, the Coalition Government has emphasised the importance we place on New Zealand's traditional and likeminded diplomatic and ...1 day ago
- First arrests made under gang patch ban
Police have made their first arrests under the new gang patch legislation, with two gang members arrested, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. “Just before 11 this morning, Police in Wairoa apprehended a gang member for wearing a patch to the supermarket. He has been arrested and will now face enforcement ...1 day ago
- Better support for victims of sexual violence
The Government is proposing two major changes to name suppression laws that will put the views of victims of sexual violence first, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “We are committed to restoring law and order and these two proposed changes will help ensure the victims of crime are put at ...2 days ago
- Government moving forward with Regional Deals
Cabinet has agreed to invite all regions to submit proposals for Regional Deals between central and local government that drive economic growth and deliver the infrastructure our country needs, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Infrastructure Minister Chris Bishop say. Inviting all regions to propose a Regional Deal that boosts ...2 days ago
- MSA pilot participant update
One of the ten young men selected to participate in the Military-Style Academy Pilot has allegedly reoffended. Children’s Minister Karen Chhour is disappointed but says it would be naïve to think that none of these young men would reoffend. “I’m saddened that this young person has not taken this opportunity ...2 days ago
- Fighting for Kiwis in Trade
Delivered at Auckland Trade and Economic Policy School Good morning and thank you Deputy Vice Chancellor Lithander for your warm welcome and for inviting me to open Auckland Trade and Economic Policy School today. A Special thanks to the University of Auckland, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade and ...2 days ago
- Attendance rates increase, again
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says that school attendance is continuing to rise. In Term 3 of 2024 51.3 per cent of students attended school regularly, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from 46 per cent in Term 3 of 2023. “This Government has prioritised student attendance and it is ...2 days ago
- Improving the lives of young New Zealanders
Ensuring New Zealand is the best place in the world for children and young people is the vision at the heart of the Government’s new Child and Youth Strategy, Child Poverty Reduction Minister Louise Upston says. “Childhood represents a huge opportunity to set people on a positive path towards living ...2 days ago
- Government continues work to reinstate livestock exports by sea
The Government is reinstating the trade of livestock exports by sea while ensuring the highest standards of animal welfare, says Associate Minister of Agriculture Andrew Hoggard.“The Government will introduce legislation changes to reinstate the trade, enhance oversight, and strengthen requirements for exporters to identify risks and manage the welfare of ...2 days ago
- Speech to the National Quality Forum 2024
Tēnā koutou katoa – it is a pleasure to be here today. I would like to begin by acknowledging the important leadership role you all play in ensuring a quality health system New Zealanders can trust. There is enormous clinical expertise in this room covering a wide range of disciplines. ...3 days ago
- New Zealand’s COP29 National Statement
Tēnā koutou katoa. Mr President, Excellencies, Delegates. New Zealand, and all nations represented here today, are already dealing with the impacts of climate change. Our households, businesses, and economies are bearing the costs of its effects. The choices we make now will shape the severity of these impacts for generations ...3 days ago
- Latest Quarterly Investment Report released
The Government has released its second Quarterly Investment Report (QIR) which shows substantial work still to be done by agencies to improve investment reporting and meet the Government’s expectations, Infrastructure and Acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “New Zealand has significant infrastructure and investment needs. The Government is determined to get ...3 days ago
- New Zealand supporting loss and damage fund
Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced New Zealand will contribute NZ$10 million to the new Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage while at the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan. “New Zealand is joining the global effort to address the significant challenge of responding to ...3 days ago
- Gang crackdown begins at stroke of midnight
The free ride for gangs is over when the clock strikes midnight tonight, with tough new laws officially coming into effect, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith and Police Minister Mark Mitchell say. “Gang patches will no longer be able to be worn in public. To earn the right to wear a ...3 days ago
- LGFA increases borrowing capacity to support high growth councils
The Government is welcoming the decision by the Local Government Funding Agency to increase access to financing tools for fast growing councils to support greater investment in critical infrastructure, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says.“Communities across the country are facing an infrastructure deficit and significant population growth is projected in ...3 days ago
- Temporary Traffic Management costs revealed
The Government has revealed that over the past three years, the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) has spent an eyewatering $786 million of taxpayers’ money on road cones and temporary traffic management (TTM), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“When I became Minister, I was surprised to learn that that NZTA did ...3 days ago
- Jurisdiction of Disputes Tribunal to double
Legislation that will double the financial jurisdiction of the Disputes Tribunal from $30,000 to $60,000 has passed first reading in Parliament today, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith. “We need to improve court timeliness and access to justice so that Kiwis and get on with their lives. Court delays affect everyone, the ...3 days ago
- Protecting New Zealand from foreign interference
Legislation that will specifically criminalise foreign interference and strengthen espionage offences has passed first reading in Parliament today, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “It is normal and appropriate for states to interact and work to influence one another. This encourages cooperation and can have mutually beneficial outcomes. “However, the reality ...3 days ago
- Significant milestone for Canterbury Road of National Significance
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed news that the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) Board has approved funding towards pre-implementation and early works on the State Highway 1 (SH1) Belfast to Pegasus Motorway and Woodend Bypass Road of National Significance (RoNS). “Reaching this significant milestone is a reflection of our Government’s ...3 days ago
- Health survey results to help drive change
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says findings from the annual Health Survey highlight the need to continue driving better health outcomes for New Zealanders. The New Zealand Health Survey is an annual snapshot of key metrics measured from July 2023 – July 2024. Findings released this morning include: In 2023/24, ...4 days ago
- Final push needed to get to Smokefree 2025
A renewed effort to get people to quit smoking will build on what has worked to date and target the groups who most need support, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello said today. “The latest New Zealand Health Survey results show the daily smoking rate at 6.9 per cent and we ...4 days ago
- New diplomatic appointments
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has announced four new diplomatic appointments. “Our diplomats play an important role in ensuring New Zealand’s interests are maintained and enhanced across the world,” Mr Peters says. “It is a pleasure to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the Ministry of Foreign ...4 days ago
- Next steps for Regulatory Standards Bill
Regulation Minister David Seymour has today announced the next steps in the Government’s plan improve the quality of regulation by opening consultation on a proposed Regulatory Standards Bill. “New Zealand's low wages can be blamed on low productivity, and low productivity can be blamed on poor regulation,” says Mr Seymour. ...4 days ago
- Red Tape Tipline goes live
Minister for Regulation David Seymour has today announced that the Ministry for Regulation’s Red Tape Tipline is now live. “We want to hear about your red tape horror stories. From today, New Zealanders will have a say on how they are regulated through an online portal,” says Mr Seymour. The ...4 days ago
- Youth Parliament 2025 announced
The Minister for Youth Matt Doocey has today announced the eleventh Youth Parliament will be taking place in 2025. “Youth Parliament offers a unique youth development opportunity to young people from across New Zealand to experience the political process and learn about how government works,” says Mr Doocey. “The two-day ...4 days ago
- Police stats show promising change
After nearly a year in Government, Kiwis have seen significant change across law and order with promising early results shown across some Police statistics, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. “In August 2023, I told New Zealanders that if they had not started to see a change in public safety within ...4 days ago
- Better coordination of anti-scam efforts
With the launch of Fraud Awareness Week, the Government is committing to new coordination efforts across industry and government to combat online scams, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Online financial scams are a growing problem for New Zealand. New data released today shows that Kiwis lost nearly ...5 days ago
- Minister to consider 7AA select committee report
Minister for Children Karen Chhour will consider the recommendations made by the Social Services and Community Committee in its report back to Parliament on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill. “I want to thank the people who made submissions and those who appeared before the committee in ...5 days ago
- Defence Minister to attend ASEAN meeting
Defence Minister Judith Collins will this week attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus in Vientiane, Laos. “We need to take every opportunity to engage with our international partners, given the increasingly unstable geo-political situation,” Ms Collins says. “New Zealand has a long-standing commitment to this ...5 days ago
- Maritime Union joins opposition to live export shipments
The Maritime Union also has zero faith in government assurances of a gold standard for ships used for the trade. ...5 hours ago - Offshore oil and gas ban ‘worst political decision’, Shane Jones says
Shane Jones says the offshore oil and gas ban is "the worst political decision" he has ever been involved with. ...5 hours ago
- Andrew Bayly ‘loser’ incident: Frantic texts, thumbs-up from PM, photo of drinking from ...
A series of frantic text messages from Andrew Bayly to government staffers amid scrutiny over his actions at a winery have been revealed. ...7 hours ago
- ACT’s David Seymour won’t ‘bow down’ to his hapū leaders
They have pleaded with the ACT leader to stop what they say are abusive violations of Te Tiriti o Waitangi. ...8 hours ago
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However, his name remains under wraps as he has already indicated he will appeal. ...9 hours ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Grantham, Lecturer in Communication, Griffith University Shutterstock The federal government’s proposed social media ban for under-16s has sparked widespread debate, affecting millions of young Australians, their families and educators. But will it actually work? While the aim behind this ban ...9 hours ago - Ant stings can be painful. Here’s how to avoid getting stung this summer (and what to do if you do...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sam Robinson, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Molecular Bioscience, The University of Queensland AG-PHOTOS/Shutterstock With the start of summer just days away, many of us will be looking forward to long sunny days spent at the beach, by the pool, out ...9 hours ago
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The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington. AUCKLAND 1 Orbital by Samantha Harvey (Jonathan Cape, $26) The slight, superb winner of the Booker Prize ...12 hours ago
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- New Child Protection Investigation Unit announced by Children’s Minister
The unit will be up and running by early next year, Children's Minister Karen Chhour says. ...13 hours ago
- In-person submissions on Treaty Principles Bill to be at Parliament or by video call
In-person submissions on the Treaty Principles Bill will all be held at Parliament or by video call. ...13 hours ago
- ‘Got my support’ – Christopher Luxon stands by Erica Stanford after ‘stupid ...
The prime minister says it wasn't appropriate behaviour but that Erica Stanford had apologised. ...13 hours ago
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The first arrest was made just three minutes after midnight, with 11 more to come. ...13 hours ago
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Labour has accused National of ignoring the evidence. ...13 hours ago
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- Gang patch ban: The first 24 hours
The first arrest was made just three minutes after midnight, with 11 more to come. ...14 hours ago
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“We are waiting for our government to announce it will arrest Netanyahu and Gallant immediately if they set foot in Aotearoa New Zealand” says PSNA National Chair John Minto. ...14 hours ago - Justice Committee Makes Further Decisions About Submissions Process For The Principles Of The Treaty...
The committee plans to hold hearings in the week starting Monday, 27 January and the weeks starting 10, 17 and 24 February 2025. ...15 hours ago
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It comes as Labour accuses National of not listening to evidence about boot camps. ...15 hours ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Winter, Associate Professor in Political Theory, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Getty Images When Prime Minister Christopher Luxon stood in Parliament last week to apologise to survivors of abuse in care, his words were among many fine speeches by ...15 hours ago
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Labour claims Government is ‘cherry-picking’ smoking trends data to hide decade-first increase in daily smokers The post Smoke and mirrors in tobacco debate appeared first on Newsroom. ...20 hours ago
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A man abused by a former political figure is "immensely relieved" at a government proposal to end secrecy around sex offenders' identities. ...20 hours ago
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There is plenty yet to play out, but the next election is at this rate shaping up as trio versus trio, writes Toby Manhire. A subplot of this week’s historic hīkoi mō te Tiriti has been the sight of the three opposition parties presenting a unified front. Te Pāti Māori ...21 hours ago
The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
even If I made a truthful contribution to this post I would still leave myself open for slander libel and defamation so I will refrain.
Steve:
What is wrong with a male who takes a commerce class in a suit he cant fill? You write like its a bad thing.
What did you major in anyway?
brett.
tory boys in suits they can’t fill just strikes me as metaphorical
It’s not any of your business what I studied and I’m not interested in what you may have studied but, what the hell, I have an LLB, a BA majoring in Politics minoring in Economics, a Diploma in European Studies, and a Graduate Diploma in International Relations.
And IF all these folks are currently leaving NZ in droves, why are they doing it at the same time as the polls are showing them that the Nats are soon to govern and going to (allegedly) line everyone’s pockets, and pave the streets with gold?
Could people be emigrating because they’re appalled at the idea of a Nat government?
There wasn’t really any need for the first two lines of your reply.
My comments in my previous post were directed at Steve. Anyway I was Just trying to guess how you have came to have your political views.
i’m planning on doing a series of posts on political philosophy rising from first principles, so that might give you a look in on where my views come from… they were well-established by uni, bit raw though
brett dale…do you have a qualification in little people backbiting and dragging others down to your level?
Randal:
No I don’t, but thanks for sharing.
Steve, good post. Jafa Pete not long ago, gave DPF a going over for his unquestioning use of Roger Douglas’ faulty productivity statistics. DPF tries to defend the misleading figures, but quickly dissapears from the argument once it’s obvious he’s lost. Here’s that, fairly amusing thread:
http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2008/07/salient_interviews_sir_roger_douglas.html
BTW steve – you need to fix up the grammar in your post.
Yes Steve, please fix the grammar. Thank you.
[lprent: dad you’re still banned. You want me to isolate you from this system permanently regardless of which IP range you come in under?]
Hi roger
[lprent: dad you’re still banned. You want me to isolate you from this system permanently regardless of which IP range you come in under?]
Hi Dad.
Roger Nome: that thread was awesome! Just count up the blatherers getting their heads handed to them on a plate there, including DPF. Really, that was the dog’s bollocks.
Meanwhile, in our arrival lounges, thousands of English, South African and Indians queue up waiting to get into our communist, high tax, unsmacked kids hell-hole…..
[lprent: dad you’re still banned. You want me to isolate you from this system permanently regardless of which IP range you come in under?]
I guess it shows we’re doing something right Millsy that other nationalities want to come here.
Psycho Milt:
yeah – always craks me up how the right accuse the left of being economically illiterate, when it’s so often the market fundamentalists that get it completely wrong.
oh and, hey Dad – how’s the wheather in chchs? It’s a beautiful Sunday morning over here in Liverpool.
Do watch out for a Liverpool kiss roger. It’s that hot here it melted all the red billboards that feature some computer generated huckster bitch.
[lprent: dad you’re still banned. You want me to isolate you from this system permanently regardless of which IP range you come in under?]
I wonder if anyone can tell me the answer to this question about the Oz statistics? Many NZers who currently live in Australia come home frequently to visit – sometimes 2 or 3 times a year with the cheap fares. Each time they leave NZ they tick the box that says Are you leaving permanently? or Where will you spend the next 12 months? – or whatever (I can’t remember the exact wording). So are they counted each time as a new person leaving? If so the stats will be very exaggerated.
roger…dad’s feeling his oats after he harassed and hectored some poor judge somewhere today. It made the news so I gues he’s pretty fired up and his cojones are getting in the way of a rational argument.
i’m planning on doing a series of posts on political philosophy rising from first principles,
Yay. Can’t wait 🙂
But it’ll be libertarian bait I tells ya. Just ignore them.
“The aim is obviously to get along the type of kid who goes to his (sorry for the gendering but they were 90% male) commerce classes in a suit that he can’t yet fill and give him an ideological steer.”
Ahh I know exactly the type of person you mean! Gosh what a joke they are. In fact last night I came across one at a party, in wearing chinos and the most chump-tastic private school knitted sleeveless jersey you’ve ever seen, this one had the nerve to interupt my conversation and attempt to defend the USA in Iraq.
Its more an ideological smack over the head (so as to deal to any last trace of independent thought) than it is an ideological steer.
gosh, this guy still going..huh..
aka roger of the rolling arrrrs.. resentment being the first, rolling(as per political figures) somewhere close…BTW is rog still into buying speakers that dummie him.. and stats that deny reality..???
There’s a type of religious apologetics that jumps whole heartedly into accepting that many of the things they are asked to believe don’t make sense.
During the enlightenment various big brains were pulling apart religious claims and pointing out inconsistencies and asking how can that be right, and don’t you have to be retarded to think this and so on and so forth.
One response was to come up with some tidy theodicy or another to show that the claims did, in spite of all appearances, make sense. Another approach was to say, you know what, it doesn’t make sense, and that’s why I believe it. Look at how faithful I am! I really do believe five impossible things before breakfast. Jesus loves me so.
Right wingers have internalised a lot of that shit.
nah…pb…they just lie as a matter of course because they want money and they will do anything to get it.
Janet,
Your best bet will be asking Stats NZ. From memory they have a really handy service where you email them a question about their stats and they get back to you within 2 working days.
If you’re asking them, you might want to check how they’re counting the Australian resident NZers coming in to the country. As NZers coming home? Or as holidaymakers?
Thanks Anita.
And SP re the principles of political philosophy I presume that covers morality as well?
The lack of morality in the financial market crashes has been worrying me. Did Adam Smith or the earlier men (they were all men I presume while the women cooked and cleaned and soothed their brows and changed their ink wells) have anything to say about the role of morality in politics?
This is what worries me about lack of morality in business/politics – a lack of personal responsibility or accountability for actions which have significant negative effects on others. Here is a quote from JKey which I found on the Sunday Star Times website in the 08 campaign section
‘Key says he does not believe a moral issue arises for the traders who make these speculative attacks on currencies, or for the dealing rooms that carry out their orders. “I don’t really see it as a judgemental business. You’re simply executing orders for people.”‘
That last sentence is particularly chilling.
Janet
The form asks that question under a section titled “Answer these questions if you live in NZ, or lived in NZ until today, otherwise answer 4. [Visitor to NZ]”
I don’t know about those NZers that moved to Australia, but I can say that I can follow the simple instructions and count myself only as a visitor on my trips to NZ.
The Auckland Airport immigration/customs people don’t hesitate to treat as as visitors either. I was back in NZ to attend a funeral recently – a 3 day trip. While holding my NZ passport (the only passport I have) the officer proceeded to interrogate me in their best stern voice about my visit, why I was there, staying where, etc. Felt like I was visiting USA. I’ve never had such a grilling anywhere else.
As far as I know natural born NZers can’t be denied entry to NZ can they?
Janet,
The other day Ms M another commenter provided this link this article was written in 1999 and it interviews a couple of investment bankers.
One of them being John Key. It turns out that when the Glass-Steagall Act was repealed in Nov 1999 John Key was the managing director of debt for Merrill Lynch.
The repeal of the Glass Seagall act is important because until than a bank could be only of of two forms of bank. You were either a gambling investment bank or a bank to help people finance business based sound investment principles.
After the 4th of November 1999 these two types of banks could merge and merge they did. This meant that the big investment bankers could do some really big gambling and boy did they ever.
According to John Key himself in the 19th of June NZHerald “unauthorised” biography, he was running a department that was developing all these cool new investment products like bonds and derivatives.
The act that was repealed was called into existence after the previous Wall street crash of 1929 in 1933.
It was repealed because Bankers would “regulate” themselves.
The bankers of Wall street and London must have been pissing themselves with laughter when the got that one through.
Of course bankers do no regulate themselves. Banksters are in it for the money and only the money and our Smiling Assassin was a very good bankster.
The people of the US and make no mistake the UK, Australia and New Zealand are going to pay the price for the scheisters of Wall street robbing and gambling spree and John Key was one of them.
@PB.
Your prejudice is showing. So much for Mickey Savage‘s “Applied Christianity” huh?
Which Prejudice Ropata? Care to explain?
No out of context quotes please.
Depending on what you came up with I’ll either defend myself or apologise tonight, bit busy at the mo’
cheers
TRAVELLEREV:
Trying to tie the wall street collapse to John Key is like the right in the USA trying to tie Clinton to Bin Laden.
@PB
Sorry ’bout that misunderstanding. I see that you were basically critiquing a head-in-sand approach, but not all religion is like that. Cheers
No worries.
travellerev,
Lots of completely unconnected links and strange ‘facts’ there [bonds and derivatives ‘new’ in 1999?].
Had me thinking back to the only govt-bailout of a NZ bank that I can remember.
Which type of bank was BNZ in 1990? A gambler or one that helped people based on sound principles? Or was it the 3-day old governments fault? Where was John Key at the time?
[apologies for getting way, way off-topic]
jbc,
I just checked the links and they open on the correct pages, perhaps there is something wrong with your browser?
I don’t know about BNZ. I wasn’t living at that time and have not done any research on it but all banks can go bankrupt if they have liquidity problems.
John Key was working for the Bankers Trust at the time as forex manager and Treasurer.
No, bonds and derivatives are an old speculative vehicle. They have just been taken out of the cupboard dusted off and with the internet deals could be made in seconds in totally non-transparent ways and with complicated computer models
Brett,
Are you suggesting that Clinton is a nice lefty president? He was hand in glove with the banksters. It was his administration that repealed the Glass- Seagall act making the road clear for the biggest speculative bubble in human history.
With the paltry 700 billion Bush has just given Paulson to play with nothing is going to get solved. The banksters have created a derivatives bubble of some 700 trillion while the entire worlds annual GDP is something in the order of 60 trillion. That means US$640 trillion in leverage and it’s deflating fast.
John Key was the managing director of debt for Merrill Lynch and one of only 4 upon invitation only advisors to Alan Greenspan and the fed, just as Alan Greenspan was pumping masses of cheap money in the system and the unsuspecting punters were told what a brilliant investments foreign exchange and other derivatives were.
The other three were representatives for Lehman bros (just gone belly up), Citigroup (also in very serious trouble) and UBSWarburg again a bank very badly damaged by the subprime crisis.
In fact Merril Lynch was one of the most prominent and advanced derivatives dealers and it was no accident that John Key was head hunted by them because the Banker trust had been developing derivatives and CDO’s and the whole alphabet of debt backed junk in the as if 1987 when John Key started to work for them.
The Bankers trust was a bank who got in trouble as John Key said in the NZ herald, “in ’95 it all went to shit and I said I’m out of here.” because they sold derivatives to Proctor and gable and when the derivatives started to loose money they were taken to court and due to the phone tapes that were made off all the conversations Proctor and gamble was able to prove that the Bankers trust bankers were lying and cheating scum specialised in racy derivatives who derived their value from bonds, currencies commodities etc. What do you reckon is the chance of John Key ending up as a specialist in a variety of complex financial products and him ending up heading that department and as advisor to Alan Greenspan with the other three most hit banks and him being squeaky clean?
He lived off and on in New York and had employees and an office in the Merrill Lynch head quarters in New York. In fact he lost three colleagues in the attacks on 911. According to his New York John Key had an expert knowledge of a multitude of complex financial products and in the link I gave previously John Key describes ho the internet is a fantastic medium to do trade in derivatives etc.
John Key was a shark with the sharks mate, and very good at what he did.
travellerev,
by ‘unconnected’ I mean that if you follow the content then there is no connection to your argument.
Attempts to link Key to the present global financial malaise are comical – but I suspect that most making these links are not trying to be satirical.
Helen Clark was deputy PM in the government that sold Telecom. Can we blame her for that? It’s a pretty darned strong connection if you ask me. She must be at least partly responsible. Deputy PM. How could she not know?
I don’t believe that any more than the rubbish about Key – but it is a stronger argument than those against him.
OK, nuff said. Next time I’ll just skip the Key/meltdown conspiracy stories. I’ll be keeping my eye out for any argument that holds water though.
jbc, If a party leader ran on the fact that they were a leading trade unionist then I think it would be fair to say that they brought along with them, as a supposed qualification, a certain set of views reagarding labour policy at the least and economics in general.
By the same token, the fact that Key used, until recently, his career in finance as a supposed qualification we are entitled to ask what exactly he brings with him to the job. The roles he had, and the level he reached surely point to the fact that he held certain views with regard to economics and the role of the free market. He was picked for the National party precisely because of his international success in the deregulated world of high finance. Which has just imploded. Until he explains, in detail, what his views are about neo liberalism and the ability of markets to regulate and discipline themselves with a light hand from the government, it is reasonable to assume that that he was on board with the Washington consensus, which has served us so poorly.
What are his instincts? What does he think went wrong? Does he agree with the BRT? Did he see this coming? Has he changed his mind? Did he push for more regulation when he was on Wall street?
All legitimate questions that Key won’t have a bar of. When the issue is raised, he attacks the questioner, which is less than reassuring.
…I am not Dad4Justice…even though it would be nice to be a far-right jackboot wearing wannabe Nazi who hates gays and women and thinks the earth was made be a magical pixie fairy named “God”….
jbc,
According to John Key the subprime crisis was not hard to predict: this is what he said about it:
Did he foresee the problems which resulted in the sub-prime crisis? “Was it hard to predict? Not really.”
And the next sentence is:
The products which underpinned the sub-prime boom – then bust – were hatched in 2004-2005, long after Key had left Merrill.
Yeah right.
In 1997 Fred Harris predicted the boom and bust of the subprime crisis and derivatives scam. In fact he warned Gordon Brown this would happen in that year.
In 2001 a senior Treasury official, Sheila C. Bair tried to persuade subprime lenders to adopt a code of “best practices’ and to let outside monitors verify their compliance.
Didn’t happen. Why not? They could sell the crap mortgages to unsuspecting suckers.
This is what John Key had to say while being the managing director of debt for merrill Lynch.
FX is just the first serving in a feast of products that banks are bringing on-line. “The initial thought was that, yes, the Internet’s great for foreign exchange because it’s vanilla. But there are applications that are just as wide in many other areas: corporate bond trading, government credit, equity underwriting, credit derivatives-it’s endless,” says Key.
Isn’t “vanilla” a term for bland sexual practices?
And lastly this is what John Key had to say about the debt department he was running: Key explains: “I had a whole lot of people working for me who were at the cutting edge of delivering quite complex and new and innovative products. They tended to either be a new product or into a new market, usually the emerging markets, Russia, Brazil, Argentina. I wasn’t the guy sitting there dreaming it all up, but I was the guy who was responsible for those people.”
That and the fact that he was an upon invitation only advisor to the architect of the bubbles for the last 20 years Alan Greenspan and the fact that he was prepared to lie about his involvement in the attack on the New Zealand dollar in 1987 gives me reason enough to think John Key was up to his eyeballs in the derivative scam.
Oops deleted some stuff.
In 1997 Fred Harris predicted the boom and bust of the subprime crisis and derivatives scam. In fact he warned Gordon Brown this would happen in that year.
In 2001 a senior Treasury official, Sheila C. Bair, tried to persuade subprime lenders to adopt a code of “best practices’ and to let outside monitors verify their compliance.
Didn’t happen. Why? because they could sell the crappy mortgages on to unsuspecting suckers.
In 1999 John Key Managing director of debt for Merrill Lynch has this to say about derivatives:
FX is just the first serving in a feast of products that banks are bringing on-line. “The initial thought was that, yes, the Internet’s great for foreign exchange because it’s vanilla. But there are applications that are just as wide in many other areas: corporate bond trading, government credit, equity underwriting, credit derivatives-it’s endless,” says Key.
This is what John Key had to say about his debt department:
Key explains: “I had a whole lot of people working for me who were at the cutting edge of delivering quite complex and new and innovative products. They tended to either be a new product or into a new market, usually the emerging markets, Russia, Brazil, Argentina (very interesting by the way him mentioning those countries since a lot of them collapsed in the late 90s). I wasn’t the guy sitting there dreaming it all up, but I was the guy who was responsible for those people.”
That makes his department a breeding ground for speculative crap and not as some might think the debt collection department. John Key was managing 140 geeks who were dreaming up ways to make money out of nothing with speculative crap and Foreign exchange manipulation.
That and the fact that he was an upon invitation only advisor to the architect of the bubbles for the last 20 years Alan Greenspan and the fact that he was prepared to lie about his involvement in the attack on the New Zealand dollar in 1987 gives me reason enough to think that John Key is a scam artist and that he was up to his eyeballs in the derivative scam.
As for the Key/meltdown conspiracy stories. The above is from the horses mouth. you can check the facts. What is it with you guys and the “Conspiracy” stories (theories, what ever) when I support everything I say with links to articles etc?
I said here months ago that we would have en economic meltdown based on what Roubini, Engdahl and other eminent scholars and finance specialists have been saying for years. Fred Harris predicted a 10 year boom and a collapse in 2007. I don’t just make this shit up. What is it that makes it a “conspiracy” theory if you can see with your own eyes that it is actually happening?
And if John Key himself places him in the middle of the grubbiest scummy business then what do I have to theorise about it? It’s there in plain sight.All I did was put a few quotes from different interviews together and they paint the picture not I.