Latest polls

Written By: - Date published: 4:53 pm, June 21st, 2010 - 38 comments
Categories: Politics, polls - Tags:

Not much to say on these two polls. Roy Morgan is moving around:

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for John Key’s National-led Government has weakened to 55.5% (down 2%), comprising National Party 50.5% (down 2%), Maori Party 3% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 1% (unchanged) and United Future 1% (up 0.5%). Support for Opposition Parties has risen to 44.5% (up 2%); Labour Party 33% (up 3%), Greens 9.5% (unchanged), New Zealand First 1.5% (down 1%), Others 0.5% (up 0.5%) and the Progressive Party with 0% (down 0.5%).

The fall in support for National (50.5%, down 2%) mirrors a slight fall in the Government Confidence Rating (136.5, down 1pt) and also a fall in June’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence measure (122.0, down 4pts) — driven lower by decreasing confidence about the year ahead.

TV3 enthusiastically links poll movements with the credit card story – bit soon to call I would have thought. TV3 said:

National are up 3.2 percent to 55.3 percent, Labour are down 3.3 percent to 30.5 percent and the Greens are down to 7.7 percent. John Key still holds a huge lead as preferred Prime Minister, with 49.6 percent of the votes, Phil Goff has just 5.1 percent, down 7.5 percent. Mr Goff is only just holding off Helen Clark – on 4.9 percent.

What does it all mean? That the world of politics is never certain, and there’s always more work to be done!

38 comments on “Latest polls ”

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  1. swimmer 1
    21 June 2010 at 5:10 pm

    It means that there are small shifts in support, but anything can happen at this point.

  2. Bright Red 2
    21 June 2010 at 5:21 pm

    Post Budget bump and probably a bit of help the credit cards for Nats but the trend is going to start coming through again.

    The doomsayers on the left who are gnashing their teeth after every poll need to learn to look at the meta, not the micro.

  3. mickysavage 3
    21 June 2010 at 5:30 pm

    I agree with the dubiousness of the call on the credit card. TV3/Neil poll every second month. They suggest that the two party margin has increased 6 points in the past 2 months.

    Roy Morgan’s during the same time has remained pretty well static, up by 2% during the same time. Presuming the gap has widened one can only guess if it was the credit card issue or the budget or any of another hundred reasons.

    Basically I havn’t the foggiest what is happening. The more that I think about the credit card issue [don hard hat] the more of a non issue I think it will be. If you boil it down you really have to wonder what the fuss is about. $250 of flowers and trinkets verses $4.8m of funding for the National Party Samoan Branch. Which is more important?

  4. Anne 4
    21 June 2010 at 5:32 pm

    It looks to me like the monthly movements in the polls are pretty much in the margin of error catagory. That tells me the bulk of the populace hasn’t moved on from the 2008 election, and most aren’t likely to until early next year. I refer to the ‘Party vote’ which is really the only one that counts.

    I hold the view that the results are skewed anyway, because of the disenfranchisement of the non land-liners. It’s all very well for polling companies to say they take that into consideration when determining who to select because that has to be nonsense. Most of the people who don’t have land-lines are in the lower socio-economical groups and/or they live transient lifestyles. Their views can never feature in these polls.

    • Jim Nald 4.1
      21 June 2010 at 10:00 pm

      Sounds like sensible and reasonable observations there.
      The monthly poll movements don’t mean that much at this stage if in the margin of error.
      In the meantime, my daily bowel movements are more meaningful … and personally gratifying.

  5. gingercrush 5
    21 June 2010 at 5:33 pm

    What trend is that Bright Red? National around 50% Labour stuck at the 30-34% range? Greens anywhere from 7-9.5% across the polls. But what good is that when they’ve consistently outperformed on polls and never delivered on election day. NZ First nowhere near the 5%, Act vote low but they potentially grow that vote closer to the election as they did in 2005 and then 2008. Maori Party polling in a situation that lowers the overhang and any other party is irrelevant considering there’s just Dunne and Anderton. One will be going and unless National specifically endorse Dunne on Ohariu. He has a good chance of being defeated by Chauvel because of how many votes Shanks split.

    But forget all that for a moment. Because the other indicators of how the government is performing and how people think the economy will be in the future is on the whole going in a positive direction or isn’t in a position where its falling successively.

    What is it telling us? That for all the faults people place on Key’s government. It clearly isn’t working. Labour’s vote is never increasing above 34%. People aren’t pessimistic about the economy, they believe the government is going in the right direction and the Prime Minister himself is seen to be performing well. That isn’t good for any shift in the polls.

    Time the left start panicking I would have thought. Don’t get rid of Goff. But get a damn media strategy, work the PR and sell policies that aren’t half-hearted and actually know where you’re going. All of which the left and Labour in particular are severely lacking in.

    • Bright Red 5.1
      21 June 2010 at 5:42 pm

      Totally agree on your conclusion, ginge but take a look at the Roy Morgan poll and the confidence in government numbers especially.

      National’s support is slowly ebbing, Labour is not dipping into the 20s any more, greens are testing 10%, not 5%. The closing of the gap accelerated in the first part of this year although the post-Budget blip has obviously offset some of that, for now.

      There is a closing trend. If it resumes in the next few polls we’ll be looking at Labour + Greens = 46% plus and equal to National in a few months, that’s a hair’s breath from victory.

      Maori Party as true kingmaker? You saw the idle speculation here first.

      • smokie 5.1.1
        21 June 2010 at 10:37 pm

        I think the left is in pretty poor shape. Labour still in early 30s despite a patchy at best performance from the Nats. Something is going wrong.

    • Zaphod Beeblebrox 5.2
      21 June 2010 at 10:11 pm

      Agree with most of that except the bit labour need to panic. Its all going to come down to confidence in the economy. If the economy flattens out next year, wages stay low and house prices keep falling, what will Key have to show for his first term?

      BTW current poll is meaningless- the effect of the credit card stuff will be gone in a month.

      Labour needs to come up some ideas- but they have plenty of ammo to throw at Key.

  6. Ron 6
    21 June 2010 at 6:21 pm

    The most interesting thing to me is that 50% don’t believe JK when he says NACT won’t sell Kiwibank.
    Now, they can’t ALL be opposition voters so there at least some New Zealand voters happy to vote for a liar.

  7. Policy Parrot 7
    21 June 2010 at 6:30 pm

    Ron – I would suspect that the 50+ % who make up that stat are those who believe in/advocate for asset sales, as well as the people opposed but who think he will lie as well.

    National will have to shut up shop on this issue, even to the extent of doing exactly that – saying one thing and doing another – hell, it will be hardly the first time for this government. And at this rate they have no chance of lasting beyond 2014, if not sooner.

    Worth repeating here: Over 80% of Kiwis opposed to any asset sales (including partial privatisation), and 85% opposed to the sale of Kiwibank.

    But what level of importance for what proportion of voters is asset sales? Could voters be won over in spite of this issue for more tax cuts (read vote bribe).

    • gobsmacked 7.1
      21 June 2010 at 9:02 pm

      Worth repeating here: Over 80% of Kiwis opposed to any asset sales (including partial privatisation), and 85% opposed to the sale of Kiwibank.

      Definitely worth repeating. Worth putting up in neon lights.

      National’s poll lead is entirely due to people who like John Key, and oppose National policy. Polls have consistently shown that they oppose mining in Schedule 4, tax cuts for the wealthy, increased GST, and above all, asset sales.

      New Zealand voters have never voted for the Right on economic policy, and they won’t next time either. They may, however, vote for a National party that promises not to do the things that the National party wants to do. In Bill English’s words, for “that nice Mr Key”.

      When you’ve spent three terms in opposition, you swallow the dead rats. National MPs and their backers were prepared to accept the “not in the first term” line, in 2008. The prize was power.

      But there is no way they will accept “not in the second term”. That’s not what National were put on this earth to do. That’s not what the corporate funders’ cheques are for.

      Sooner or later, Key has to deliver big to his backers – and screw his voters. Or the backers will screw him.

      So the question is: when?

      • Puddleglum 7.1.1
        21 June 2010 at 9:27 pm

        And the answer is: now.

        He’s delivering big time already. Not only the tax cuts but, of greater structural importance, both the goal of the decisions that get made on government expenditure (and in regulatory areas) and the processes by which those decisions get made. All these working groups and taskforces are pretty much flying under the radar so far as most voters are concerned yet they are the changes that will have the greatest impact on cementing in inequality and the power of the already powerful.

        The rest (asset sales, privatisation of local resources, etc.) will follow as a consequence, like water finding the lowest point – and it will all look so ‘natural’, sure as night follows day.

  8. Anne 8
    21 June 2010 at 7:36 pm

    @ gingercrush
    “Time the left start panicking I would have thought. Don’t get rid of Goff. But get a damn media strategy, work the PR and sell policies that aren’t half-hearted and actually know where you’re going….”.

    No need for the left to panic for the reasons I outlined. The populace is still in the post 2008 election mindset. It’s the cyclical normal. Most wouldn’t even be able to tell you what has been happening since then. They’ve switched off politics, and they won’t even start switching back on until early next year.

    But you’re right about the media strategy. Look at last week. Labour must have had some idea what was coming (even if some former ministers had everything crossed and were staying mum) but there appears to have been no proper strategy laid out in advance. If there had been, one assumes Carter would not have got the chance to diverge off on the tangent that he did. They have six months at the outside to put the strategy into place and start showing some real muscle.

    • I dreamed a dream 8.1
      21 June 2010 at 9:15 pm

      “there appears to have been no proper strategy laid out in advance.”

      I think in reality, they have been following a solid strategy, i.e. take it on the chin and show repentance, and wait for the storm to pass. Carter deviated from the script a little and so had to be bluntly reminded to follow the script. Any aggressive strategy, e.g. to justify the actions, or to drag National into it, would have caused additional immense and long-term public anger. Where there’s repentance, there’s forgiveness. I believe that Labour handled this saga pretty well by adopting a strategy of humility and repentance.

      • Anne 8.1.1
        21 June 2010 at 10:30 pm

        Hey Idad, don’t get me wrong. I’m not advocating all out aggression. That would be fatal. But I do believe that their strategy needs to change from now on. You are right. They needed to show humility and some repentance for their perceived sins. But they can’t carry on eating humble pie indefinitely. The voters will then perceive them as weak. In my view they need to start attacking National far more strongly than has hitherto been the case. There are good signs it has started, so lets hope they keep it up.

    • Jim Nald 8.2
      21 June 2010 at 10:03 pm

      If I am the Right strategist, I would do my darndest to get the Left panicking. Quick, dump Goff, dump the experienced MPs, dump dump dump. Get them to do something dumb.

      • smokie 8.2.1
        21 June 2010 at 10:38 pm

        Doing something dumb sure hurt the liberal party in Australia.

      • swimmer 8.2.2
        21 June 2010 at 10:41 pm

        Yes, that does seem to be the pattern here. And all this praise of renewal is pretty sinister when you consider that they are getting rid of their threats. Fight back Labour.

  9. swimmer 9
    21 June 2010 at 9:19 pm

    I completely agree with you, Anne, I was speaking to someone today who seemed really out of touch with what was really going on. Vaguely knew about a lot of stuff, but not details.

  10. Godber 10
    21 June 2010 at 9:55 pm

    There does seem to be some regular rumors about act falling apart inside and Rodney Hyde polling badly in his electorate. I wonder if they will affeect the outcome next year?

    • I dreamed a dream 10.1
      21 June 2010 at 10:08 pm

      Key knows he can’t rely on ACT/Hide anymore, that’s why he is so desperately doing all he can to keep the Maori Party sweet. He’ll need the Maori Party next year to remain in power. The Maori Party will be the kingmakers.

    • J Mex 10.2
      22 June 2010 at 2:03 pm

      Godber, you seem strangely well informed. Can I ask if you’ve heard any rumours about Rodney Hide?

  11. Jenny 11
    22 June 2010 at 7:55 am

    The question is can Labour work with the Maori Party?

    My opinion is that they can.

    Or will the dog whistling conservative sectarians in Labour, sabotage any chance of a Labour led government?

    • Bright Red 11.1
      22 June 2010 at 1:02 pm

      The only dogwhistler on race from the Left I can think of is Chris Trotter. He doesn’t represent anyone and isn’t Labour. Just dreaming of ethnic civil war all by himself.

  12. Anne 12
    22 June 2010 at 9:50 am

    “The question is can Labour work with the Maori Party?”

    Of course they can. Labour and Maori have been working together since Labour’s inception. It has been said before by me and others, the stumbling block is Tariana Turia. She would not allow it to happen while she is in charge. It’s as simple as that.

    “Dog whistling conservative sectarians in Labour”. Who are they? I’ve been attending LP functions etc. on and off for years and I don’t recall anything like that. To the contrary, Maori members and supporters have always been treated with friendship and total respect.

    • The Voice of Reason 12.1
      22 June 2010 at 10:02 am

      ‘”Dog whistling conservative sectarians in Labour’. Who are they?’

      Good question, Anne. Perhaps it’s frisky new Standard commentor WOOF? Beats the heck out of me why anybody would need to dogwhistle the Maori Party anyway, given that their own actions and public statements damn them so comprehensively.

  13. Anne 13
    22 June 2010 at 10:03 am

    @ Jenny
    Not trying to be smart. If there were ‘conservative dog whistlers’ in Labour, I think most have probably long since gone. Take the Queen St hikoi last year. It was over-run (slight exaggeration) with LP members. I saw them everywhere.

  14. Gazza 14
    22 June 2010 at 12:10 pm

    Who cares which leader is most popular, it is the the people around them (MPs) who’s performances should be of more concern in the polls,
    The PM is only the head that wags the tail so if the tail doesn’t wag properly then the voters should be
    worried and this is where the polls should be reflected.
    Ask the people what they think of the performance of the party as a group not on one individual alone.

  15. Gazza 15
    22 June 2010 at 6:50 pm

    Every MP is in some way a rogue WOOF there are no saints in politics it is how bigger rogue some are, these are the ones that need to be reined in.
    BUT this does not make them a bad politician “A lesson learnt is knowledge gained”.
    These pollies need to be judged on their work done in the electorate not judged by media witch hunters out for a bit of scandal to sell their rags or get TV coverage.

  16. Godber 16
    23 June 2010 at 8:13 pm

    J Mex

    I have a close relative who is high up in the electorate comittee team with National. He said they have polled Epsom voters and people have lost confidence in Rodney.

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